贵金属方面，黄金白银双双狂飙刷新高，美联储风波引爆避险交易！周一纽约时段，贵金属价格大幅走强。现货白银一度上涨8%，突破86美元，现货黄金 一度涨2.4%升破每盎司4600美元，均刷新2025年12月的历史纪录。分析认为，贵金属走强最直接的因素或是"特朗普政府加大了对美联储的攻击力度"，使投 资者减少了对美国资产的投资。 【有色风口已至，"超级周期"势不可挡】 | 序号 | 名称 | 两日图 | 涨跌幅 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 第五座殿 | | 10.02% | 有色金属 | 農金属 | 白银 | 260亿 | 24.74Z | | 2 | 中矿 资源 | | 9.56% | 有色全属 | 小金属 | 其他小金属 | 672亿 | 19.771Z | | 3 | 赣锋舞业 | | 8.55% | 有色会居 | 能源金属 | 键 | 1467亿 | 53.37 Z | | V | 雅化集团 | hant | 8.34% | 草础化工 ...

成份股方面，贵金属龙头和锂业龙头携手领涨！湖南白银涨停，中矿资源涨超9%，赣锋锂业、雅化集 团涨逾8%，盛新锂能、天齐锂业、山金国际等个股大幅跟涨！ 今日（1月13日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格盘中拉升2.9%，现涨 2.63%，继续刷新上市以来的高点，截至发稿，获资金实时净申购4560万份！拉长时间来看，近10日狂 揽3.11亿元！ | 序号 | 名称 | 两日图 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 湖南白银 | 1 | 10.02% | 有色金属 | 農金属 | 白银 | 260亿 | 24.74亿 | | 2 | 中矿资源 | 1 | 9.56% | 有色金属 | 小金属 | 其他小金属 | 672亿 | 19.774Z | | 3 | 條播運业 | 1 | 8.55% | 有色金属 | 能源金属 | स्वा | 1467亿 | 53.37亿 | | 4 | 雅化集团 | name | ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 13 日星期二 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 2.40%报 4608.80 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 7.33%报 85.16 | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 1.31%报 1030.26 元/克，沪银收涨 7.23%报 21268 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 1 月 12 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 6.24 吨， | | | | | 当前持仓量为 1070.8 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 增加 39.47 吨，当前持仓量为 16347.95 吨。 | | ...

Group 1: Hot News - Trump denied his involvement in the Justice Department's subpoena to the Federal Reserve and said Fed Chair Powell's performance was poor [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange warned of market uncertainties and price fluctuations, and will strengthen supervision [2] - Shanghai Gold Exchange notified significant price fluctuations in precious metals and advised risk prevention [2] - The Australian government plans to buy and stockpile key minerals worth A$1.2 billion from local miners [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key commodities to watch: silver, caustic soda, tin, nickel, PVC [3] - Night - session performance: non - metallic building materials rose 2.05%, precious metals 32.45%, etc. [3] Group 3: Sector Position - Shows the five - day change in commodity futures sector positions from January 6 - 12, 2026 [4] Group 4: Major Asset Performance - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09% daily, 4.95% monthly and yearly; other indices had various performances [5] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury futures rose 0.06% daily, - 0.01% monthly and yearly; others had different changes [5] - Commodities: CRB Commodity Index rose 0.85% daily, 1.76% monthly and yearly; other commodities also had different performances [5] - Others: the US Dollar Index fell 0.24% daily, rose 0.64% monthly and yearly; CBOE Volatility was flat daily, fell 3.08% monthly and yearly [5] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - Displays the trends of major commodities such as BDI, CRB index, WTI crude oil, etc. [6]

东吴证券近日有色金属行业跟踪周报：回顾本周行情(1月5日-1月9日)，有色板块本周上涨8.56%，在全 部一级行业中排名靠前。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中小金属板块上涨11.67%，金 属新材料板块上涨9.02%，工业金属板块上涨8.52%，贵金属板块上涨7.28%，能源金属板块上涨 6.30%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 铜：供给端扰动再起，宏观做多情绪维持叠加沪铜仓单增长支撑现货走强。截至1月9日，伦铜报收 12,998美元/吨，周环比上涨4.1%；沪铜报收101,410元/吨，周环比上涨3.23%。供给端，截至1月6日， 本周进口铜矿TC下跌至-44.5美元/吨，根据百川盈孚，智利一小型铜矿宣布罢工，铜陵公告其在厄瓜多 尔的米拉多矿二期本计划年初投产，因当局政局变化未能如期签署矿产合同，被迫延期；需求方面，基 本面无明显改善，现货报价维持贴水。本周美国经济数据密集发布，显示劳动力数据维持趋势走弱，26 年降息预期维持2次不变，整体宏观做多情绪仍存；此外，近期BCOM调仓铜将获得增配，以及沪铜临 近交割，冶炼厂大量注册仓单支撑了现货价格，预计短期铜价维持震荡偏强走势。 铝：铜铝比价上行为铝价提供 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of precious and non-ferrous metals in a weak dollar environment, with a particular focus on the recent rise in gold stocks ETF (517400) by over 2.5% [1] - The recent decline of the US dollar index below 98 and the offshore RMB breaking the 7.0 mark against the dollar have accelerated the price increases of precious and industrial metals [1] - Silver experienced a technical squeeze in the fourth quarter, while prices of industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, and cobalt have also risen, although with increased volatility during the month [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is providing support for non-ferrous metal prices, leading to an improvement in industry sentiment [1] - In the medium to long term, gold prices are expected to trend upward, suggesting that investors may consider participating in future pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider direct investments in physical gold and tax-exempt gold fund ETFs (518800), as well as gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

Group 1: Key Insights on Tin Market - Tin prices broke through 350,000 yuan per ton this week but retreated due to tightening market sentiment ahead of the U.S. non-farm employment data, leading to profit-taking by some investors [1][3] - Domestic social inventory saw a significant decrease of 12.61% week-on-week, primarily due to slow recovery in tin ore supply and uncertainties in production from major producing countries, indicating a persistent tight raw material situation [1][3] - Demand for tin is expected to remain strong, driven by high capital expenditure in AI, with a positive outlook for tin prices in the future [1][3] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a buy on copper equities during dips, as the market anticipates a tightening supply-demand situation in 2026 due to expected production cuts from Freeport and Teck Resources [2] - For aluminum, the recommendation is to buy on dips, as strong macro policy expectations and geopolitical risks provide support despite current consumption pressures and rising social inventories [3] - Lithium prices continue to rise, with a recommendation to buy on dips, as supply constraints are expected due to new government policies limiting domestic production [4] Group 3: Investment Suggestions - Companies to watch include Xingye Silver Tin, Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, New Jinlu, Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Zhongkuang Resources, Shengda Resources, Chifeng Gold, Zijin Gold International, Zhaojin Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [5]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant surge, with both London gold and silver reaching historical highs due to a combination of geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies [2][4][5]. Market Performance - On January 12, London gold and silver prices peaked at over $4600 per ounce and $84 per ounce, respectively, marking new historical highs [4][5]. - A-share precious metal-related stocks also performed well, with notable increases such as Mingpai Jewelry rising over 10% and Shengda Resources increasing over 8% [4]. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical risks and rising tensions have led to an influx of safe-haven investments into precious metals [5]. - Central banks and global macro funds are increasing their positions, contributing to an imbalance in investment structures [5]. - The ongoing criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, potentially influencing future monetary policy [5]. Central Bank Actions - As of December 31, 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.15 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the previous month, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases since November 2024 [4][5]. Future Price Predictions - Analysts predict that gold prices could approach $5000 per ounce and potentially reach $6000 per ounce, while silver could target $90 per ounce, with a possibility of hitting $100 per ounce if it breaks through [6][16]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to engage in precious metal investments through regulated markets and to adopt a strategy of small positions and buying on dips, avoiding high leverage [2][9]. - Financial institutions are warning clients about the risks of blind investments in gold, suggesting a shift in investment classification from conservative to medium-risk products [9][19].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly. The report suggests that investors should adopt a bullish approach but strictly control their position sizes. Conservative traders can consider cross - commodity arbitrage strategies such as going long on silver and platinum while shorting gold and palladium. Long - hedgers should hedge in batches as soon as possible, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce their hedging ratios [4][6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - **Intraday Trends**: On January 12, Asian trading hours, precious metal prices continued to strengthen. The market expects the Fed to continue its loose monetary policy in 2026, and geopolitical risks have pushed up prices. The correction at the end of December 2025 has released internal adjustment risks. In 2026, precious metals will continue to be strong. Investors are advised to trade with a bullish view and control position sizes. This week, attention should be paid to US price data, Chinese import and export data, and the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff measures [4]. - **Medium - term Trends**: In 2026, geopolitical risks may significantly increase. The restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policies of central banks will boost the demand for reserve diversification, strategic value, and liquidity premiums of the precious metals sector. The sector will continue the upward trend since 2024. Silver and platinum will outperform gold, but price volatility will also increase. Investors are advised to trade with a bullish view and control positions. Conservative traders can consider cross - commodity arbitrage [6]. Precious Metals Market Data - Domestic precious metals market data shows that on January 12, the Shanghai Gold Index closed at 1,028.89, up 1.98%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 20,909, up 11.65%; the Guangzhou Platinum Index closed at 622.66, up 3.88%; the Guangzhou Palladium Index closed at 505.71, up 1.29% [5]. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **US Employment Data**: In December 2025, the US added 50,000 non - farm jobs, less than the expected 60,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. Wage growth was stable, and the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in January. The probability of a rate cut in April is 45%, and it is more likely to cut rates in June [18]. - **US - Venezuela Relations**: The US may lift more sanctions on Venezuela in the coming week. Venezuela is exploring expanding diplomatic relations with the US, and the US is evaluating the possibility of "phased resumption" of embassy operations in Venezuela [18]. - **Iran Situation**: In Iran, local riots have caused more than 500 deaths. Trump has threatened to intervene, and Iran blames the US and Israel. Trump will meet with senior advisors on Tuesday to discuss options against Iran [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc., and gives investment ratings and trend outlooks for each commodity [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**:避险情绪回升，趋势强度为1 [2][5] - **Silver**:快速拉升，趋势强度为1 [2][5] - **Platinum**:窄幅震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][26] - **Palladium**:区间震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][26] Base Metals - **Copper**:现货走强，支撑价格，趋势强度为1 [2][8] - **Zinc**:震荡偏强，趋势强度为1 [2][12] - **Lead**:LME库存减少，支撑价格，趋势强度为0 [2][15] - **Tin**:震荡走强，趋势强度为1 [2][17] - **Aluminum**:偏强运行，趋势强度为1 [2][24] - **Alumina**:逢高寻卖点，趋势强度为0 [2][24] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**:强于电解铝，趋势强度为1 [2][24] - **Nickel**:产业与二级资金博弈，宽幅震荡运行，趋势强度为0 [2][30] - **Stainless Steel**:镍铁抬升震荡重心，盘面博弈印尼政策，趋势强度为0 [2][31] Energy - **Crude Oil**:未提及具体观点，但原油价格上涨对部分化工品有支撑作用 [65][68] - **Fuel Oil**:弱势延续，下方仍有支撑，趋势强度为0 [2][54] - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**:转入震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差持续反弹，趋势强度为0 [2][54] Chemicals - **Para-Xylene (PX)**:单边高位震荡市，趋势强度为1 [2][63] - **PTA**:多PX空PTA，趋势强度为1 [2][63] - **MEG**:低位反弹，估值下方空间有限，趋势强度为1 [2][63] - **Rubber**:宽幅震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][73] - **Synthetic Rubber**:上方压力逐步增加，趋势强度为0 [2][76] - **LLDPE**:标品排产部分回切，区域现货补空延续，趋势强度为0 [2][79] - **PP**:下游抢出口支撑丙烯，PP成本支撑偏强，趋势强度为0 [2][82] - **Caustic Soda**:偏弱震荡，趋势强度为 -1 [2][85] - **Pulp**:宽幅震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][90] - **Glass**:原片价格平稳，趋势强度为0 [2][95] - **Methanol**:高位震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][99] - **Urea**:短期回调，中期偏强，趋势强度为0 [2][104] - **Styrene**:短期震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][107] - **Soda Ash**:现货市场变化不大，趋势强度为0 [2][111] - **LPG**:短期供应偏紧，地缘扰动偏强，趋势强度为0 [2][115] - **Propylene**:现货供需收紧，趋势偏强，趋势强度为0 [2][116] - **PVC**:偏弱震荡，趋势强度为 -1 [2][124] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**:报告利空落地，原油反弹推涨油脂，趋势强度为1 [2][63] - **Soybean Oil**:美豆动能有限，单边区间为主，趋势强度为1 [2][63] - **Soybean Meal**:USDA报告偏空，或跟随美豆回调，趋势强度为 -1 [2][169] - **Soybean**:USDA报告影响，或调整震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][169] - **Corn**:关注现货，趋势强度为0 [2][172] - **Sugar**:区间整理，趋势强度为0 [2][176] - **Cotton**:延续调整态势，趋势强度为0 [2][181] - **Egg**:现货盈利，远月情绪转弱，趋势强度为0 [2][187] - **Live Pig**:需求存负反馈，供应预期增量，趋势强度为 -1 [2][190] - **Peanut**:震荡运行，趋势强度为0 [2][193] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (Europe Line)**:关注开舱指引；04轻仓试空，趋势强度为0 [2][130] Fibers - **Short Fiber**:震荡偏强，多TA空PF持有，趋势强度为0 [2][147] - **Bottle Chip**:震荡偏强，月差正套持有，趋势强度为0 [2][147] Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**:逢高布空，趋势强度为 -1 [2][150] Others - **Log**:震荡反复，趋势强度为0 [2][59]