Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Due to the approaching Fed interest rate meeting and the warming domestic macro - sentiment, the bulk market is strong, driving a short - term rebound in urea. With significant volume in low - price spot transactions on Monday, low - price spot is temporarily stable in the short term, and high - price spot is moving towards low - price spot. So, with a strong macro and increased spot trading volume, short - term urea futures and spot prices are expected to be supported in the oscillation. Medium - term, the downward trend logic remains unchanged. Urea still maintains a high premium, and the high valuation may limit the speculative upside of the market. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: On September 16, the closing price of urea futures was 1,683 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,679 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The trading volume of the urea main contract (01 contract) was 166,237 lots, an increase of 41,590 lots; the open interest was 284,978 lots, a decrease of 15,607 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 8,613 tons, a decrease of 234 tons; the trading volume was 558.324 million yuan, an increase of 142.652 million yuan. The basis in Shandong was - 43, down 40; the basis of Fengxi - futures was - 143, down 20; the basis of Dongguang - futures was 17, down 20. The spread between UR01 and UR05 was - 48, up 7. [1] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged. The price of Shandong Ruixing decreased by 20 yuan to 1,600 yuan/ton. The trader prices in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan to 1,640 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi remained unchanged. The supply - side indicators showed that the daily output was 185,090 tons, an increase of 200 tons, and the operating rate was 79.12%, an increase of 0.09%. [1] Industry News - On September 15, the daily output of the urea industry was 191,200 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous day and 1,100 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 81.73%, a decrease of 3.51% from 85.24% in the same period last year. [2]

Group 1 - The national production material market prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month in August [1] - Coal prices rose by 1.6% month-on-month but decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, with coking coal, thermal coal, and No. 2 smokeless block coal increasing by 5.1%, 1.1%, and 0.5% respectively [2] - Steel prices increased by 1.2% month-on-month and decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, with channel steel, ordinary medium plates, and welded steel pipes rising by 2.5%, 2.1%, and 1.9% respectively [2] Group 2 - Non-ferrous metal prices decreased by 0.3% month-on-month and increased by 6.8% year-on-year, with copper and aluminum prices falling by 0.5% and 0.2%, while zinc prices rose by 0.1% [2] - Fertilizer prices fell by 0.8% month-on-month and decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, with urea prices dropping by 0.9% and compound fertilizer prices increasing by 0.2% [3] - Refined oil prices decreased by 1.3% month-on-month and fell by 7.2% year-on-year, with prices for 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline declining by 1.4%, 1.1%, and 1.0% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by fertilizer companies, particularly in the context of fluctuating urea prices and the implementation of the "Commercial Storage Without Worries" project, which aims to mitigate risks for storage enterprises through financial tools and risk management mechanisms [1][4]. Group 1: Market Challenges - Urea production is at an average daily output of 190,000 tons, with demand shrinking and exports not being opened, leading to concerns about inventory becoming a "hot potato" for storage companies [1]. - The volatility in urea prices has transformed the responsibility of storage from a duty to a high-risk burden for enterprises involved in national fertilizer reserves [2]. Group 2: "Commercial Storage Without Worries" Project - The "Commercial Storage Without Worries" project was initiated to provide financial support for storage enterprises, allowing them to hedge against price risks and effectively manage their operations [2]. - Participation in the project has grown from 5 companies to 52 over five years, indicating its success and the establishment of a risk management mechanism that covers storage costs and supports futures trading [2][4]. Group 3: Risk Management and Financial Outcomes - The company utilized futures tools to establish short positions, successfully generating a profit of approximately 1.8 million yuan from a 200 yuan per ton price drop in the futures market, which offset the depreciation of their physical inventory [3]. - The effective use of futures as a hedging tool has allowed storage companies to stabilize their operations and protect inventory value, demonstrating a successful case of risk management in the fertilizer industry [3][4].

Core Points - The European Parliament has voted overwhelmingly (617 votes in favor, 18 against) to exempt over 90% of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from the EU carbon border adjustment tax [1] - This tax is levied on imports based on the estimated carbon footprint of specific goods such as steel and cement, and will enter a transitional phase starting October 2023 [1] - From 2026, importers will be required to report the carbon footprint of their goods and pay duties where applicable [1] - Following the exemption from the EU border tax, SMEs will not need to report the carbon emissions associated with imports of steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, or hydrogen into the EU [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, under the situation of weak supply and demand of urea, both spot and futures prices declined. The high inventory of urea factories restricted the upward space of prices. Currently, the price has dropped to an acceptable low - price range in the market. After the futures sentiment improved, spot low - price purchases began, and the futures market started a technical rebound [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics - Last week, affected by the continuous decline of futures, the domestic demand was insufficient, and the spot market was weak, showing a continuous price - reduction trend. Since the weekend, the urea price continued to decline steadily, and new orders had not improved. However, there was an intention to purchase at the current price. Today, affected by the futures rebound, the low - price spot transactions were smooth [4] 3.2 Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures on the disk continued to decline. By September 12, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,663 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared with the settlement price on September 5. The weekly trading volume was 1,496.18 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 388.56 million tons; the open interest was 817.164 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 146.72 million tons. The futures decline was weaker than the spot decline, and the basis weakened. As of September 15, the 01 contract basis was - 43 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 27 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 48 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 8 yuan/ton. On September 15, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,613, a week - on - week decrease of 154 [6][9] 3.3 Urea Supply End - Last week, the weekly output of urea increased. From September 4 to September 10, the weekly output of urea was 1.2993 billion tons, an increase of 20.3 million tons compared with the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.59%, and the average daily output was 185,600 tons. It is expected that the probability of output increase in the next cycle is relatively large. The coal price decreased, and the domestic liquefied natural gas price also declined last week. The price center of synthetic ammonia moved down, while the methanol spot price increased [13][15][16] 3.4 Urea Demand End - Last week, the compound fertilizer price remained flat compared with the previous week. After the parade, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories rebounded, and the finished product inventory of compound fertilizer factories decreased continuously this month. However, the fertilizer stockpiling was nearly 70% - 80%, and the subsequent increment was limited. The capacity utilization rate of melamine decreased, and the demand for urea increased insufficiently [18] 3.5 Inventory Data - As of September 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1327 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 37.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 382.8 million tons. The port sample inventory was 549.4 million tons, a decrease of 71.5 million tons compared with the previous week [21] 3.6 International Market - India's NFL's urea import tender on September 2 determined a transaction of about 2.03 billion tons, and it is estimated that China's urea supply in this tender may be 700 - 800 million tons. As of September 12, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in different regions showed different trends of increase and decrease [23]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a sustained upward trend in potash prices due to limited new capacity and low domestic inventory, suggesting a prolonged high demand environment for potash fertilizers [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - The FOB prices for potash in Vancouver and the Baltic Sea are reported at $288 and $290 per ton, reflecting increases of 24% and 35% respectively since the beginning of the year [2]. - Domestic ex-factory prices for potash in Qinghai are at 2,800 yuan per ton, marking a 10% increase since the start of the year [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global potash demand is expected to rise, with Nutrien raising its annual demand forecast to 73-75 million tons, driven by strong demand recovery in India and China, as well as favorable economic conditions for major crops in Southeast Asia [3]. - Supply remains tight with limited new capacity expected in 2025, and the BHP potash project has been delayed until mid-2027 [3]. Group 3: Inventory Levels - Port inventories have decreased to 1.63 million tons, the lowest level since 2021, indicating a continued strong demand for potash fertilizers [4]. - The seasonal demand for potash is expected to persist until October, supporting the outlook for sustained price strength [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, urea prices have been continuously falling due to weak domestic demand during the agricultural off - season and lower - than - expected participation in Indian tenders and tender prices, which has weakened speculative sentiment. - Supply pressure has slightly eased as daily urea production has declined, but it remains at a high level compared to the same period. In mid - to - late September, the restart of previously overhauled plants may push daily production back to a high level. - On the demand side, agricultural demand is progressing slowly, and the main growth points in the future are the phased procurement demand for autumn wheat base fertilizer and off - season reserves by storage enterprises. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer plants may continue to rise, but insufficient downstream procurement may limit their production enthusiasm. The melamine industry has many restarted plants, but terminal demand is still weak. Export performance is below expectations, and export disruptions will weaken after the export window closes. - Overall, the urea supply - demand situation is relatively loose, and prices remain under pressure. However, the current price is low, and with the support of autumn wheat base fertilizer and off - season reserve demand, the room for further decline may be limited [2][24][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Trend Review - Urea futures broke through the previous oscillation range last week, with the urea 2601 contract closing at 1,663 yuan/ton on September 12, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton or 3.67% from the end of August. The main reasons are weak demand during the agricultural off - season in mid - to - early September, lower - than - expected Indian tenders, and production restrictions of compound fertilizer plants around the military parade. - The spot market is also weak. On September 12, the mainstream prices of small - particle urea in various regions decreased compared to the end of August, with downstream procurement being cautious, poor new order transactions, and slower shipment speeds. - International urea prices have also fallen. For example, the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Middle East decreased by 55 US dollars/ton from the end of August, and the decrease in the lowest bid in the Indian NFL tender on September 2 has put downward pressure on international prices [6][9]. 3.2 Supply Side - Recently, the number of overhauled urea plants in China has increased, and the capacity utilization rate has declined. Although the daily output has dropped to 18 - 190,000 tons/day, it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. On September 12, the national urea plant capacity utilization rate was 79.34%, a decrease of 3.05 percentage points from the end of August, and the daily output was 185,600 tons, a decrease of 714,200 tons from the end of August. - By process, the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea plants was 81.47%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points from the end of August, and the daily output was 146,100 tons, a decrease of 651,300 tons from the end of August. The capacity utilization rate of natural - gas - based urea plants was 72.34%, a decrease of 1.15 percentage points from the end of August, and the daily output was 39,500 tons, a decrease of 62,900 tons from the end of August. - Most of the changed plants during the statistical period were coal - based plants. Some plants in Henan and Shanxi started overhauls in early September, and some have since resumed. After mid - September, previously overhauled plants such as Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Jinfeng will also resume, and it is expected that the daily output will rise above 190,000 tons, with overall supply remaining relatively abundant [10][11]. 3.3 Demand Side - Agricultural demand is progressing slowly. In mid - to - early September, it is in the agricultural off - season, and downstream dealers are cautious in procurement, with only small - scale low - price stockpiling. The next stage of agricultural demand is the autumn sowing base fertilizer for wheat from late September to mid - October, but the start is slow. - In terms of industrial demand, after the military parade, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has rebounded but is still at a low level compared to the same period. On September 12, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer plants was 37.82%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the end of August, and the inventory of compound fertilizer manufacturers was 826,200 tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the end of August. - The capacity utilization rate of melamine plants is 55.38%, a decrease of 3.12 percentage points from the end of August, and the output is 27,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the end of August. Terminal demand is weak, and the support for the urea market is limited. - On September 2, the Indian NFL urea import tender had a planned tender volume of 2 million tons, with a final winning bid volume of about 2.03 million tons and a winning bid price of about 460 US dollars/ton CFR, a significant drop of about 70 US dollars/ton from the August tender. After September, the domestic autumn fertilizer use and off - season reserves will start, and the export window may gradually close [13][14][16][18]. 3.4 Inventory - As of the week of September 12, the in - plant inventory of urea production enterprises was 1.1327 million tons, an increase of 46,900 tons from the end of August and an increase of 382,800 tons year - on - year, with continuous inventory accumulation for five weeks. The port inventory was 549,400 tons, a decrease of 50,600 tons from the end of August but an increase of 336,400 tons year - on - year. Although daily production has declined and some manufacturers have export orders, the weak terminal demand makes it difficult to change the situation of inventory accumulation, and price cuts to attract orders have limited effects [19]. 3.5 Cost Side - As urea prices fall, the profits of different production methods have shrunk or losses have widened. The production profit of the coal - water slurry gasification method is 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month; the production profit of the fixed - bed method is - 217 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month; and the production profit of the natural - gas method is - 185 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. - Last week, domestic coal prices stopped falling, and some coal prices rebounded. The port market atmosphere improved, but the actual transaction volume was limited. The coal supply has increased as previously restricted mines have resumed production, and the power plant's coal consumption has decreased seasonally after the "peak summer" period. With sufficient inventory, the coal price lacks the impetus for continuous rise [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Methanol Industry - The methanol market has a relatively healthy inventory pattern due to high supply in the inland and continuous external procurement by some olefin plants, which supports prices. However, demand is weak due to the traditional off - season, and the overall valuation is neutral. The market is currently swaying between high inventory and weak basis in reality and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Last week, oil prices oscillated, with the main trading logic being the continuous game between the supply - tightening expectation caused by geopolitical risks and concerns about weak macro - demand and supply surplus. In the short term, the market may continue to maintain a range - bound pattern in the tug - of - war between geopolitical risks and weak fundamentals. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, and a strategy of expanding spreads for option trading [7]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the spot price may stabilize, and the decline space of the futures price may be limited. Attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of alumina plants and device fluctuations. For PVC, the overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize in September. Attention should be paid to downstream demand performance [12]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly, mainly due to the phase mismatch between the continuous increase in supply and weak domestic demand. Although export orders support some enterprises, the export's ability to digest inventory is limited. The market sentiment is restricted by high inventory and weak demand [18]. Polyolefin Industry - The market shows a pattern of "decreasing supply and increasing demand", and the core contradiction is not obvious. For PP, the PDH and external propylene procurement profits are suppressed, and the basis is still weak. For PE, the current maintenance is relatively high, and the short - term supply pressure is small, but attention should be paid to the supply rhythm. Attention should also be paid to downstream restocking before the Double - Festival [21]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak, and the price driving force is weak. In the short term, BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene. The weekly supply - demand of styrene has improved, and there is an expectation of further improvement in the future. The low price of styrene has support, but the rebound space is limited due to high port inventory [43]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the supply is increasing to a relatively high level, and the short - term demand has some support, but the mid - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. However, the cost support is limited, and the rebound space is restricted. For PTA, the supply - demand is expected to be tight in September, but the basis and processing fee repair driving force are limited. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand is weak, and it mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. For bottle - chips, the supply increases slightly, and the demand may decline, and the processing fee space is limited [47]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 closed at 2379, down 0.34%; MA2509 closed at 2230, up 0.77%. The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, and the port inventory increased by 8.59% [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The domestic upstream operating rate decreased by 1.97%, and the overseas upstream operating rate decreased by 2.52%. The downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 12.37%, while the formaldehyde operating rate increased by 8.92% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent closed at 66.99, up 0.93%; WTI closed at 62.69, up 0.51%. The Brent - WTI spread increased by 7.50% [7]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.31%, and NYM ULSD increased by 0.35%. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread increased by 3.13%, and the ULSD M1 - M3 spread increased by 104.46% [7]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: The prices of Shandong 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged. The price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC was 4680, unchanged [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PVC operating rate increased by 4.2%, and the caustic soda operating rate data was unavailable. The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed varying degrees of increase [12]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: The 01 contract of urea futures closed at 1671, up 0.12%. The 05 contract remained unchanged, and the 09 contract decreased by 1.12% [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily output increased by 0.11%, and the weekly output increased by 1.58%. The plant - level inventory increased by 3.44%, and the port inventory decreased by 11.52% [17]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: L2601 closed at 7169, down 0.55%; PP2601 closed at 6913, down 0.37%. The basis of North China LL decreased by 12.50%, and the basis of East China PP increased by 5.26% [21]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 3.11%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 2.70%. The PP device operating rate decreased by 3.9%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.3% [21]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Price and Spread**: Brent crude oil increased by 0.9%, and WTI crude oil increased by 0.5%. The price of CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 0.8%, and the price of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene increased by 1.2% [43]. - **Styrene Price and Spread**: The East China spot price of styrene decreased by 1.0%, and the EB2510 futures price decreased by 0.9%. The EB - BZ spot spread decreased by 2.1% [43]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The price of Brent crude oil increased by 0.9%, and the price of WTI crude oil increased by 0.5%. The price of CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 0.8%, and the price of CFR China PX decreased by 0.7% [47]. - **Downstream Product Price and Cash Flow**: The price of POY150/48 remained unchanged, and the cash flow decreased by 1.9%. The price of FDY150/96 remained unchanged, and the cash flow decreased by 27.2% [47].

Market Overview - Urea futures prices have declined, with the 2601 contract closing at 1663 CNY/ton on September 12, down 64 CNY/ton or 3.67% from the end of August, primarily due to weak demand and disappointing Indian tender results [3][5] - The domestic spot market also showed weakness, with prices in various regions dropping between 60 to 90 CNY/ton compared to the end of August [3] Supply Side - Domestic urea production capacity utilization rate was 79.34% as of September 12, down 3.05 percentage points from the end of August, with a daily average production of 18.56 million tons, a decrease of 71.42 million tons from the end of August [7] - Despite a slight decrease in daily production, supply pressure remains due to high overall production levels, with expectations of a rebound in production as previously shut-down facilities resume operations [6][7] Demand Side - Agricultural demand is currently slow, with a seasonal gap in demand for urea, leading to cautious purchasing behavior among downstream distributors [9] - Industrial demand has not shown growth compared to previous years, with fertilizer manufacturers operating at low capacity utilization rates and high inventory levels [9][12] Inventory Levels - Urea production companies have seen an increase in inventory, with factory stock reaching 113.27 million tons as of September 12, up 4.69 million tons from the end of August [15] - Port inventory decreased slightly, but overall inventory levels remain high, indicating ongoing supply pressures [15] Cost Factors - The profitability of urea production has decreased due to falling prices, with various production methods experiencing reduced or negative margins [18] - Coal prices have stabilized, but overall demand remains limited, affecting the cost structure of urea production [18] Conclusion - The urea market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to continued price pressure [19] - Future demand may see some support from seasonal agricultural needs, but overall market conditions suggest limited upside potential for prices in the near term [19]

消息面 9月15日，山东地区尿素行情继续下跌，小颗粒主流出厂成交1580-1640元/吨，临沂市场一手贸易商出 货参考价格1640-1650元/吨附近，菏泽市场参考价格1630-1640元/吨附近。 9月12日，郑商所尿素期货仓单8896张，环比上个交易日减少50张。 长江期货： 三季度有尿素装置投产，由于检修装置增加及尿素开工率下滑，短期日均产量低于去年同期。农业用肥 需求零散，复合肥供需格局上周稍有改善，但仍处于季节性累库周期，其他工业需求支撑维稳。尿素产 销偏弱，企业库存连续累库，港口库存小幅去库。暂关注01合约下方1630-1650支撑，尿素1-5价差进一 步走弱后正套机会。 中辉期货： 尿素短期收紧，供应预期宽松。日产偏低运行，本周尿素日产有望延续下降，但新装置按计划投产，9 月中下旬日产有望逐步回升至20万/吨水平；需求端内冷外热，国内工农业需求整体依旧偏弱（农业需 求旺季尾声，复合肥按需采购，三聚氰胺开工近两周止跌但依旧同期偏低），化肥出口相对较好。厂库 持续累库且整体同期偏高，同时仓单处同期高位；出口保持较高增速，尿素稳步集港，港口库存去库。 年初以来，尿素估值不高。整体来看，国内尿素基本面依 ...