一、市场表现 5、据巴基斯坦媒体《论坛快报》12月24日报道，巴铁路部长阿巴西(Muhammad Hanif Abbasi)表示，该国铁路部门在2025年7月至12月收入预计达到500亿卢 比，因此在2025至2026财年(2025年7月至2026年6月)有望实现1000亿卢比的收入目标。阿巴西表示，铁路部门近年来一直面临较大财政压力，由于采取了有 针对性的行政及运营措施，目前正朝着财务稳定的方向发展。 6、据巴基斯坦联合通讯社报道，12月25日，巴基斯坦与亚洲开发银行(ADB)签署了两项重大融资协议，总金额7.3亿美元，旨在加强巴电力基础设施并推进 公共部门改革。巴经济事务部发布的新闻稿显示，相关协议涵盖了3.3亿美元的第二期输电强化项目以及4亿美元的国有企业加速转型计划。 7、据巴基斯坦媒体《商业记录报》报道，巴全国粮食保障和研究部长侯赛因(Rana Tanveer Hussain)12月26日在拉合尔工商会(LCCI)发表讲话时指出，今年7 月至11月巴基斯坦粮食出口下降至19.5亿美元，低于去年同期的31.5亿美元，下降幅度达到38%，其原因包括亩产量低、研发投资不足、农产品走私、农产 品囤积以及政府 ...

Core Viewpoint - Petrobras plans to restart the Bahia fertilizer plant in Camasari by January 2026, marking a significant step in its strategy to re-enter the fertilizer sector [1] Group 1: Plant Operations - The Bahia fertilizer plant is currently in the final stages of maintenance, with system debugging underway [1] - The plant was initially expected to resume production by the end of 2025, but the timeline has been adjusted to January 2026 [1] Group 2: Production Capacity - The Bahia fertilizer plant is designed to produce approximately 1,300 tons of urea and ammonia per day, and it can also produce the gasoline additive Arla 32 [1] Group 3: Supply Agreements - Petrobras has signed an agreement with Bahia Gas Company to ensure a stable supply of natural gas, committing to a daily supply of 1.2 million cubic meters [1] Group 4: Additional Projects - In addition to the Bahia plant, Petrobras has restarted urea production at the Araucaria nitrogen fertilizer plant in Parana in August 2023 [1] - The company plans to initiate the restart of the Sergipe fertilizer plant in early 2026, which has a designed production capacity of 1,800 tons of urea and 1,250 tons of ammonia per day, with the capability to co-produce carbon dioxide [1]

Core Viewpoint - The industry standard for humic acid-containing compound fertilizers, drafted by Henan Xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group, has been awarded the "14th Five-Year" National Standard Innovation Contribution Award in the field of humic acid fertilizers [1] Group 1: Industry Standards - The lack of authoritative industry or national standards for humic acid-containing compound fertilizers has hindered the sustainable development of the industry [1] - In May 2022, the company initiated the drafting of the industry standard for humic acid-containing compound fertilizers to address this issue [1] - The newly developed detection method by the company significantly improves the accuracy of humic acid content detection while being simple and cost-effective [1] Group 2: Implementation and Recognition - The drafted standard successfully passed the approval of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in September this year and will be implemented in March 2026 [1] - The standard has gained widespread recognition in the market due to the excellent efficacy of humic acid-containing compound fertilizers [1]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 1 元至 1735 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1710 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 7334 手至 16.46 万手，空头持仓减少 6129 手至 18.83 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.18 万吨，较上一工日减少 0.32 万吨；较去年同期 增加 1.3 万吨；今日开工率 79.32%，较去年同期 79.11%上涨 0.21%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 106.89 万吨，较上周减少 11.08 万吨，环比 减少 9.39%。尿素港口样本库存量 17.7 万吨，环比+3.9 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.7%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 58.5%，环比-3.1%。 | | | | | 4、印度 NFL 发布 ...

联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 1 元至 1735 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1710 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 7334 手至 16.46 万手，空头持仓减少 6129 手至 18.83 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.18 万吨，较上一工日减少 0.32 万吨；较去年同期 增加 1.3 万吨；今日开工率 79.32%，较去年同期 79.11%上涨 0.21%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 106.89 万吨，较上周减少 11.08 万吨，环比 减少 9.39%。尿素港口样本库存量 17.7 万吨，环比+3.9 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.7%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 58.5%，环比-3.1%。 | | | | | 4、印度 NFL 发布新一轮尿素进口招标，意向采购 150 万吨（西海岸 80 万吨东海岸 | | 能源与化 | 尿素 ...

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 估值端：价格及价差 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期震荡，中期有支撑 国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | | • | 本周(20251218-1224)，中国尿素生产企业产量：133.34万吨，较上期跌3.25万吨，环比跌2.38%。周期内新增5家企业装置停车，5家停车装置恢复生产，同时延续上周 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 期的装置变化，本周产量明显减少。下周，中国尿素周产量预计138万吨附近，较本期明显提升。下个周期暂无企业装置计划停车，3-5家停车企业装置可能恢复生产， | | | | 考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量大概率明显增加。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 内需方面，四季度末为中游补库高峰期，今年粮 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期震荡，中期有支撑 | | • | 本周(20251218-1224)，中国尿素生产企业产量：133.34万吨，较上期跌3.25万吨，环比跌2.38%。周期内新增5家企业装置停车，5家停车装置恢复生产，同时延续上周 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 期的装置变化，本周产量明显减少。下周，中国尿素周产量预计138万吨附近，较本期明显提升。下个周期暂无企业装置计划停车，3-5家停车企业装置可能恢复生产， | | | | 考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量大概率明显增加。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 内需方面，四季度末为中游补库高峰期，今年粮食价格反弹，东北地区玉米丰收，因此东北地区基层现金流暖于2024年同期。现金流较为充裕背景下，整体贸易 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the basic chemical industry, with significant growth in specific sub-sectors such as TDI and synthetic resins [1][2]. Core Insights - The TDI export volume reached a historical high in November, with 56,500 tons exported, significantly exceeding previous years' totals, and is projected to continue growing [2]. - The China Synthetic Resin Association has called for the regulation of the polyoxymethylene industry to address structural supply-demand imbalances, with projected production capacity reaching 1.51 million tons per year against a demand of only 950,000 tons by 2025 [2]. - The chemical sector overall has shown strong performance, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 5.41% this week, outperforming other indices [1][10]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.88%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 3.9%, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1][10]. - The top-performing sub-sectors in the chemical industry this week included membrane materials (12.18%), synthetic resins (8.23%), and phosphate fertilizers (6.5%) [1][13]. Sub-sector Summaries TDI - November TDI exports reached 56,500 tons, with a cumulative export of 506,300 tons from January to November, marking a 56.2% year-on-year increase [2]. - The average export price for TDI in October was $1,527 per ton, with a total export value of $67.1 million [2]. Polyoxymethylene - The industry faces challenges due to a projected capacity of 1.51 million tons against a demand of only 950,000 tons, leading to potential oversupply issues [2]. Tires - Domestic tire manufacturers are becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on growth opportunities in the tire sector [2]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate chemical sector is expected to benefit from environmental policies limiting supply, coupled with increasing demand from the new energy sector [4]. Vitamins - The market for vitamins is experiencing supply disruptions, particularly for Vitamin A and E, due to unforeseen circumstances affecting production [5].

展望后市，蔡英超表示，短期来看国际尿素价格会保持强势，2026年市场走势不确定性较大，需关注国 内出口政策的变化。 新湖期货尿素研究员姚瑶表示，国际尿素价格上涨的主要原因是伊朗冬季供应下降，印度市场需求旺 盛。相对来看，国内尿素供应充裕，下游农业需求处于淡季，工业需求一般。出口方面，虽然国际尿素 价格上涨后出口利润进一步提升，但国内市场出口配额有限。对于目前市场传闻的"第五批出口配额"， 姚瑶认为落地的可能性不高。 据齐盛期货尿素研究员蔡英超介绍，环保限产导致产量有所下降，需求保持平稳，市场整体保持供大于 求的状态。内外盘价差较大，有可能推动"第五批出口配额"落地。 看向国际市场，姚瑶表示，目前国际市场尿素供需趋紧。12月伊朗冬季限气导致天然气化工装置大量停 车，气头尿素供应下降，而印度市场仍处于旺季，其11月和12月销量处于高位，而且今年以来印度市场 库存始终偏低，下半年印度多次进行招标，标量显著高于前两年同期，最新一次招标发布于12月16日， 招标意向达到150万吨。 从国内市场来看，姚瑶称，上周尿素日产量在19.5万吨附近，后期日产量同比增速将维持高位。从下游 来看，预收订单近期以下降趋势为主，农业需求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the trends and projections in China's fertilizer industry, particularly focusing on the production of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers, indicating a slight decline in production for October 2025 while showing an overall increase in cumulative production for the year [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In October 2025, China's agricultural nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizer (calculated as pure) production is projected to be 5.34 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [1]. - From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of agricultural nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers in China reached 54.164 million tons, marking a cumulative growth of 8.8% compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Companies Involved - The companies mentioned in the report include Salt Lake Co. (000792), Hubei Yihua (000422), Yuntianhua (600096), Luxi Chemical (000830), Xinyangfeng (000902), Stanley (002588), Sichuan Meifeng (000731), and Yangmei Chemical (600691) [1]. Group 3: Research and Analysis - The report is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics and is compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China, which specializes in providing in-depth industry research reports and strategic analysis [1].