14 March 2026 | 12:33AM HKT Portfolio Strategy Research CHINA WEEKLY KICKSTART Markets edged up; Modestly lower real GDP growth but higher inflation forecasts on energy supply shock; Trade growth accelerated sharply in Jan-Feb MXCN/CSI300 edged up 0.5%/0.2%, outperforming AC World/EM (-1.3%/-1.9%) this week. The NPC concluded on Mar 12 and lawmakers officially approved the government work report and the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030). Due to longer disruptions in supply, our commodity strate ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the US - Iran conflict, global risk preferences are disturbed, oil prices are rising, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are weakening. It is advisable to pay attention to the change in the war situation and control risks [4]. - The economic recovery's sustainability needs to be observed, and there is still room for loose monetary policy. The Iran geopolitical conflict and rising inflation may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. - Gold prices are in a sideways consolidation. The Fed may be cautious about the interest - rate cut rhythm, suppressing precious metal prices in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [8]. - Due to the Middle East conflict, copper prices may maintain a volatile operation; aluminum prices are expected to be relatively strong; zinc prices may break downward; lead prices may decline further; nickel prices will likely fluctuate; tin prices will probably have a high - level wide - range oscillation; lithium carbonate prices will oscillate widely; alumina prices suggest a wait - and - see strategy; stainless steel prices will maintain a volatile pattern; and casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be relatively strong [11][13][16][17][18][20][22][25][26][28]. - Steel prices will likely maintain a weak and volatile operation; iron ore prices will oscillate widely; coking coal and coke prices may have a short - term upward pulse; glass prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation; soda ash prices will continue a relatively strong oscillation; manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices may have short - term rebound opportunities; industrial silicon prices will oscillate under cost support; and polysilicon prices will be under pressure and oscillate [30][33][36][40][41][44][47][49]. - Rubber trading should be flexible and short - term; for crude oil, a short - position strategic allocation is recommended; methanol should be taken profit at high prices; urea should be short - sold; pure benzene and styrene suggest an empty - position wait - and - see; PVC and ethylene glycol may rebound but need to pay attention to risks; PTA processing fees are difficult to rise; PX valuations are expected to rise; polyethylene can be short - sold at high prices; and polypropylene's short - term is dominated by geopolitical conflicts and the long - term by production mismatch [56][58][61][63][65][67][69][72][74][76][79]. - Pig prices may remain weakly stable; egg prices may rise slightly; soybean meal prices suggest short - term wait - and - see; oil prices are bullish in the medium term; sugar prices may have a rebound space; and cotton prices suggest buying on dips [82][85][87][90][92][95]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: Trump won't reach a cease - fire agreement with Iran for now; China's "15th Five - Year Plan" sets energy production targets; domestic AI glasses' global share will reach 45% this year; Tesla's Terafab project will start in seven days, and Meta plans to cut 20% or more of its staff [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are weakening, and it is advisable to pay attention to the war situation and control risks [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Friday, Treasury bond futures had different changes. The US launched investigations on multiple trade partners, and China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations. The central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery's sustainability needs to be observed, and the bond market may be pressured by inflation. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices fell. The US PCE data shows inflation trends, and the US calls on countries to send warships to the Middle East [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Gold prices are in a sideways consolidation. The Fed's cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts suppresses precious metal prices in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [8]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Due to the Middle East conflict, copper prices adjusted. LME and domestic inventories changed, and the spot premium was stable [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle East conflict continues, and copper prices may maintain a volatile operation [11]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices回调 due to economic concerns. Inventory and processing fees changed [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle East conflict threatens overseas supply, and domestic demand recovers. Aluminum prices are expected to be relatively strong [13]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fell, and inventory and basis changed [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry is weak, and zinc prices may break downward [16]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell, and inventory and basis changed [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices may decline further due to insufficient domestic demand and concentrated short positions [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fell, and spot premiums, ore prices, and nickel - iron prices changed [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, nickel prices are supported by policies. In the short term, they will likely fluctuate. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [18][19]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. Supply is in a post - holiday recovery but limited, and demand is weakly recovering [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin supply is tight, and demand is weakly recovering. Tin prices will probably have a high - level wide - range oscillation [20]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices fell, and inventory and ore prices changed [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic production recovers, and demand is good. Lithium carbonate prices will oscillate widely [22]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose, and inventory and basis changed [23][24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price may rise, and the supply of alumina is tightening in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and consider short - selling at high prices [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell, and inventory and basis changed [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply pressure appears, demand is moderately released, and costs support prices. Stainless steel prices will maintain a volatile pattern [26]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices fell, and inventory and basis changed [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Costs are strong, demand recovers, and prices are expected to be relatively strong [28]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices rose, and inventory and basis changed [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices will likely maintain a weak and volatile operation, and the focus is on inventory digestion and demand verification [30]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose, and inventory and basis changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore supply is fluctuating, and prices will oscillate widely. Pay attention to negotiations and geopolitical situations [33]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking coal and coke prices rose, and inventory and basis changed [34][35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Coking coal prices are affected by the Middle East conflict, and short - term prices may have an upward pulse. Long - term is optimistic [36][38]. 3.3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass and soda ash prices rose slightly, and inventory and basis changed [39][41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and soda ash prices will continue a relatively strong oscillation [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices rose slightly, and ferrosilicon prices fell slightly [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, look for short - term rebound opportunities. In the long term, pay attention to cost and supply - side factors [44][45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices fell [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices will oscillate under cost support, and polysilicon prices will be under pressure and oscillate [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The market trades the expectation of refinery shutdown, and there may be a second - wave market. Tire enterprise开工 rates changed, and inventory increased [51][54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade flexibly in the short term and consider hedging [56]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a short - position strategic allocation and consider relevant spread operations [58]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed, and MTO profit changed [59][60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profit at high prices [61]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed, and basis changed [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - sell at high prices [63]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene and styrene prices rose, and basis and other indicators changed [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest an empty - position wait - and - see [65]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose, and cost, inventory, and basis changed [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PVC prices may rebound but need to pay attention to risks [67]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory changed [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Ethylene glycol prices may rebound but need to pay attention to risks [69]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory changed [70][71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA processing fees are difficult to rise, and prices may rise but need to pay attention to risks [72]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory changed [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX valuations are expected to rise but need to pay attention to risks [74]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory changed [75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - sell at high prices [76][77]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory changed [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term is dominated by geopolitical conflicts, and long - term by production mismatch [79]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices fluctuated slightly, and supply is abundant [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Hog prices may remain weakly stable, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for the near - term and wait and see for the far - term [82]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices rose slightly, and supply is sufficient [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices may rise slightly, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for the near - term and pay attention to cost support for the far - term [85]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean import and production data changed [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The USDA report is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [87]. 3.5.4 Oils - **Market Information**: Palm oil production, export, and inventory data changed [88][89]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Oils are bullish in the medium term [90]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: Global and domestic sugar production and supply data changed [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may have a rebound space, and it is recommended to buy on dips [92]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton production, export, and inventory data changed [93][94]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The USDA report is neutral, and it is recommended to buy on dips [95].

Macro Analysis - The financial data for early 2026 shows a positive trend, with corporate loans marginally improving but with limited growth, necessitating attention to the "crowding out effect" of debt replacement and the sustainability of increased demand from fiscal policies [2] - Real estate demand remains weak, with household loans continuing to be a drag on overall credit growth [2] - The structure of social financing has improved compared to 2025, with indirect financing contributing more significantly [2] Strategy Insights - In the event of overseas "stagflation," upstream resource products (oil, coal, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products) and essential consumer goods (food, beverages, pharmaceuticals) are recommended as core holdings [3] - Investment in hard technology sectors (semiconductors, aerospace, high-end equipment manufacturing, AI computing) and traditional/new infrastructure related to government spending is advised for portfolio flexibility [3] Bond Market Observations - CD rates have shown a downward trend, but there is a risk of rebound in the short term [4] - In February 2026, new RMB loans totaled 900 billion, remaining stable compared to 1.01 trillion in the same month last year, indicating a better credit growth situation [5] - The secondary market for REITs has continued to decline, with significant price fluctuations observed [6] Industry Research Banking Sector - February's financial data indicates stable loan growth, with a shift towards a "quantity-price balance" approach in credit activities, highlighting the importance of assessing marginal changes in credit structure [10] Electric and New Energy - The electric and environmental sectors are experiencing a shift towards high-quality performance, with energy security concerns driving market dynamics [11] Overseas TMT - The price of optical fibers has significantly increased due to AI construction demand, raw material shortages, and drone requirements, benefiting leading companies in the sector [12] Real Estate - In the first two months of 2026, new home sales in key cities dropped by 33% year-on-year, with second-hand home sales also declining slightly [13] Pharmaceuticals - The disposable glove industry is expected to see price increases, benefiting leading domestic companies due to cost control and demand growth [14] Petrochemicals - The geopolitical situation is impacting global energy supply chains, emphasizing the need for energy security and domestic production capabilities [15] Basic Chemicals - Rising oil prices are supporting agricultural input demand, with government policies highlighting food security as a national priority [16] Metals - Domestic copper concentrate inventories have reached a new low since May 2022, indicating tight supply conditions and a positive outlook for copper prices [17] Company Research Real Estate - The company reported a revenue of 19.273 billion yuan for 2025, a 12.2% increase, with a net profit of 655 million yuan, reflecting strong growth in professional services [18] Basic Chemicals - The company achieved a revenue of 3.577 billion yuan in 2025, a 10.03% increase, with a net profit growth of 49.32% [19] Automotive - The company is facing pressure on margins due to market volatility and competition, leading to revised profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [20] Overseas TMT - The company reported a revenue of $5.003 billion in 2025, a 12.4% increase, with a focus on expanding its presence in the optical interconnect field [21] Consumer Goods - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue for 2025 but plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio [23]

Industrial Sector - Industrial production continues to recover, particularly in the textile and automotive sectors, with significant increases in operating rates[2] - Steel and building materials production has increased, with apparent demand recovering[2] - The operating rate for automotive tires has improved, with the full steel tire operating rate exceeding last year's levels[2] Real Estate Sector - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 0.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate improvement of 24.2 percentage points compared to the previous week[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index decreased by 1.17% compared to the previous value[2] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars in February fell by 25.4% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 18.9% for the year[2] - Major home appliance retail sales dropped by 31.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 19.2 percentage points from the previous value[2] - Domestic flight operations increased by 11.3% year-on-year, although the growth rate has slowed by 8.6 percentage points compared to the previous week[2] External Demand - Export container freight rates have risen, with the Shanghai and Ningbo export container freight rates increasing by 14.9% and 10.3%, respectively[2] - The port cargo throughput volume decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, while container throughput increased by 3.7%[2] Price Trends - The industrial product price index rose by 6.3%, with the black raw materials index increasing by 3.6%[2] - The futures price of rebar increased by 1.7%, while the spot price rose by 1.2%[2] - The agricultural product wholesale price index fell by 1.0% week-on-week, indicating seasonal declines[2]

Group 1 - Haier and other companies have responded to being named in the CCTV "3.15" gala, with Haier expressing apologies and confirming compliance with national standards by limiting electric vehicle speeds to 25 km/h [3] - Apple announced a reduction in the commission rate for its App Store in China, lowering the standard rate from 30% to 25% and for eligible small developers from 15% to 12% [3] - Meta plans to conduct large-scale layoffs involving 20% or more of its workforce to offset high AI infrastructure costs and has delayed the release of its AI model "Avocado" due to performance issues compared to competitors [4] Group 2 - Tencent Cloud will provide free installation and deployment services for its products across 17 cities in China over the next 40 days [7] - Didi's core platform is projected to see a 13.5% year-on-year increase in order volume by Q4 2025, reaching 4.844 billion orders, with a total transaction value of 123.8 billion yuan [8] - China Power Construction signed a contract for a nickel mining project in Indonesia worth approximately 54.56 billion yuan, with a contract duration of 60 months [8] Group 3 - Amazon has partnered with AI chip startup Cerebras Systems to enhance AI computing efficiency and accelerate the development of various AI applications [11] - Nvidia's GTC 2026 technology conference will focus on AI factories and the next-generation M10 chip, with supply chain implications for related industries [11] - Tesla's CEO announced the launch of the AI chip super factory Terafab, aiming for an annual production capacity of 100 to 200 billion chips [11] Group 4 - Samsung has raised foundry fees and is developing new HBM4E memory using a 2nm process, which is ahead of the industry standard [14] - Toyota's new RAV4 model has been launched, but market feedback is cautious regarding its sales without price incentives [15] - Japan Post has agreed to acquire a Norwegian shipping company to strengthen its global network and expand its participation in niche markets [15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - Domestic major companies are seizing market opportunities, with the "lobster craze" igniting growth in domestic AI models [6][15] - OpenAI's acquisition of OpenClaw marks a significant step towards the commercialization of AI [21] - The report highlights a surge in token consumption for domestic models, indicating increased user engagement [16] Summary by Sections Domestic Market - Major companies like Tencent, ByteDance, and Zhiyun are launching various AI applications, integrating with OpenClaw to enhance their offerings [6][15] - OpenClaw's usage has surged, with MiniMax M2.5 and Step 3.5 Flash leading in token consumption, accounting for approximately 1/6 of the total weekly token usage on the platform [16][20] International Market - OpenAI's acquisition of OpenClaw signifies a shift towards commercializing AI technologies, with other tech giants like NVIDIA and Meta also investing in AI platforms [21][22] - Despite the excitement in China, the enthusiasm for AI in Europe and the US remains limited, primarily confined to technical circles [22] Policy and Support - The Chinese government is actively supporting AI initiatives, with local policies providing substantial financial backing for qualifying projects [7][20] - Various regions are offering significant subsidies and support measures to promote AI development [20] Investment Recommendations - In the internet sector, focus on AI commercialization and application expansion, recommending stocks like Alibaba-W, Pinduoduo, and Baidu Group-SW, with Tencent Holdings as a beneficiary [9][31] - In the computing sector, there is an anticipated increase in AI demand, with recommendations for companies benefiting from IT spending, including Kingdee International and Baidu Group-SW [9][31] - In the automotive and autonomous driving sector, the approval of domestic L3 pilot licenses is expected to accelerate the commercialization of advanced driving technologies, with recommended stocks including XPeng Motors-W and Tesla [9][31]

Group 1 - The article highlights various industry malpractices exposed during the CCTV "3·15" event, including the use of toxic substances in food production, fraudulent health products, and deceptive marketing practices targeting vulnerable populations [2] - The article reports on the establishment of a "maritime escort alliance" by the U.S. in the Strait of Hormuz, aimed at ensuring the safety of oil shipping routes, with discussions ongoing about the timing of this initiative [3][4] - The article mentions that Aluminium Bahrain BSC (Alba), the world's largest single-site aluminum smelter, has begun phased shutdowns of three production lines, affecting 19% of its total capacity due to supply chain disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz situation [7] Group 2 - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk announced the launch of the Terafab project, aimed at manufacturing AI chips, marking a significant expansion beyond its core electric vehicle business [8][10] - The article discusses the commencement of U.S.-China economic consultations in Paris, indicating ongoing trade discussions between the two nations [11] - The article notes that the Chinese regulatory authorities are taking action against various malpractices highlighted in the "3·15" event, including the investigation of companies involved in food safety violations and misleading marketing [12][20]

Core Viewpoint - Honda's recent $15.7 billion impairment loss in electric vehicle assets marks a significant turning point, leading to its first annual loss in history and the cancellation of the "Honda 0 Series" electric vehicle project, reflecting a broader crisis in the Japanese automotive industry [3][6][10]. Group 1: Honda's Challenges - The $15.7 billion impairment indicates Honda's acknowledgment that its previous investments in electric vehicles will not yield expected future returns, representing a complete denial of its recent electrification strategy [6][10]. - Honda's reliance on its traditional engineering culture has resulted in a slow response to the shift towards "software-defined vehicles," leading to a significant competitive disadvantage against companies like Tesla and emerging Chinese automakers [6][9]. - The cancellation of the "Zero Series" is not just a financial decision but a strategic admission that a mid-sized traditional automaker cannot independently transition to the smart electric era without scale and ecosystem support [10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese market poses a significant challenge for Honda, which has historically relied on it for profits. The rise of local electric vehicle manufacturers has drastically altered the competitive landscape, forcing Honda to lower prices on its traditional models to maintain sales [12][14]. - Chinese brands have established a stronghold in the market with vertically integrated supply chains and aggressive pricing strategies, making it difficult for Honda to compete without a localized R&D framework [14]. - The loss of profitability in China has severed Honda's critical funding source for its global electrification plans, jeopardizing its financial stability in other markets [14]. Group 3: Nissan's Restructuring - Nissan has undergone a significant leadership change, with the entire executive team, including CEO Makoto Uchida, being replaced as part of a drastic restructuring effort to survive amidst declining performance [16][18]. - The leadership overhaul is seen as a necessary step to eliminate historical burdens that hinder radical strategic changes, paving the way for potential collaboration with Honda [20][22]. - The merger between Honda and Nissan is viewed as a potential solution to their respective challenges, allowing for shared resources and enhanced competitiveness in the evolving automotive landscape [23][26]. Group 4: Cultural and Strategic Considerations - Despite the economic rationale for a merger, deep-rooted cultural differences between Honda's independent engineering ethos and Nissan's bureaucratic structure pose significant challenges [29][30]. - The urgency of survival in a rapidly changing market may force both companies to reconsider their cultural identities and prioritize collaboration over independence [36]. - The recent changes in Nissan's leadership signal a willingness to adapt, suggesting that both companies may find common ground in their pursuit of survival and competitiveness in the electric vehicle market [36].

Group 1 - Global market events include US-China trade talks, key economic data from China, and multiple central bank interest rate decisions [4][6] - Iran's military actions and conditions for ending the conflict are highlighted, with the use of advanced weaponry [5][6] - Rising oil prices have prompted the US and other countries to release strategic oil reserves, with the US planning to release 86 million barrels [5][6] Group 2 - Consumer data shows a rebound in consumption and investment in China, with retail and service consumption growing by 5.7% and 1.1% respectively [8] - The National Development and Reform Commission is focusing on improving consumer protection and standards in response to recent consumer rights issues [8] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is consulting on listing mechanism reforms to lower thresholds for dual-class shares and enhance IPO processes [9] Group 3 - The FOF (Fund of Funds) market has seen significant growth, with 40 new products raising a total of 61.973 billion yuan this year [9] - Active equity funds are experiencing a revival, with record subscription numbers for new funds launched recently [10] - Major announcements from listed companies include significant profit changes and strategic asset transfers [12]

Economic Outlook - The OECD composite leading indicator suggests that China's export growth may further increase in July, with the G7 countries' indicator rising to 1% in February from 0.9% previously, indicating a potential upward trend in China's cumulative export growth [2] - Oil prices have surged due to geopolitical conflicts, with WTI crude oil reaching $98.7 per barrel (up 8.6%) and Brent crude at $103.1 per barrel (up 11.3%) [2] - The decline in residential property sales has narrowed, with the transaction area in 67 cities increasing by 2% compared to the same period last year as of March 13 [2] Demand Analysis - Retail sales of passenger cars have seen a significant decline, with approximately 1.034 million units sold nationwide, down 25.4% year-on-year [3] - The land premium rate has decreased, with a rate of 4.5% as of March 8, down from 7.86% in February [3] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a rate of 19.6% as of March 13, which is 0.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [3] Production Insights - Construction activity remains subdued, with the recovery rate of construction sites lower than the same period last year, at 42.5% as of March 11 [3][17] - The operating rate of asphalt plants has continued to decline, standing at 23% as of March 12, which is 3.4 percentage points lower than last year [3][17] Trade Developments - The growth rate of container throughput at ports has significantly decreased, with a year-to-date growth rate of 11% as of March 8, down from 12.4% the previous week [3][23] - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has seen a year-on-year decline of 15.6% as of March 13, compared to an average decline of 3.3% in January and February [3][25] Price Trends - Commodity prices have risen sharply, with the South China index increasing by 5.2% and the RJ/CRB commodity price index up by 3.9% [3][41] - The price of WTI crude oil has increased by 8.6% to $98.7 per barrel, while Brent crude has risen by 11.3% to $103.1 per barrel [3][41] - The listing prices of second-hand houses have accelerated their decline, with first-tier cities down 1.1% and nationwide down 0.8% as of March 2 [3][44] Interest Rate and Debt - Long-term bond yields have slightly increased, with the 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields reported at 1.2768%, 1.5619%, and 1.8143% respectively as of March 6 [3][56] - The government plans to issue 128.2 billion yuan in new local bonds in the week of March 16, with a total of 3.831 trillion yuan in new special bond issuance planned for March [3][47]