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抢出口接棒抢转口——实体经济图谱 2025年第20期【陈兴团队·财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-05-31 11:45
核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测: 黄金区间震荡,铜、油震荡上行 内需: 房销量改善,而车小幅回落;服务消费表现分化。 ①新房销量增速升,二手房和乘用车降,家电月均销售价同比增速涨多跌少。5月新房销量增速降幅继续收窄,其中一二线级城市增速降幅略有走扩,三四线呈现 大幅收窄态势;而二手房延续价升量跌。商品消费中,乘用车零售小幅回落、而批发上升,半钢胎开工率维持稳定。本周家电销售均价多有回升,月均销售价同比 增速涨多跌少。 ②服务消费表现分化。上周电影票房有所改善,同比降幅收窄;四大一线城市至海口的机票价格续升;酒店每间可售房收入虽然有所下降,但同比增速上行。不 过,商圈人流指数续降,同比增速放缓。 外需: 抢出口接棒抢转口,美关税政策有所反复。 ①5月集装箱吞吐量和离港船只载重等出口数量指标有所回落,考虑到去年同期基数大幅抬升,预计出口增速将有所下行。 ②中国至美国港口集装箱预订量周同比继续回升,而传统转口贸易地区港口停靠量周同比大幅回落,指向抢出口接棒抢转口。 ③美国国际贸易法院裁定特朗普对等关税政策因越权而暂停生效,但后续又允许关税暂时继续生效,最终裁决情况未知,后续需关注最新进展。 ①化工链下游工厂投机性 ...
万豪们「盯上」美团会员
3 6 Ke· 2025-05-31 07:43
万豪内部向高管发送的邮件显示,此次合作的核心目标是推动万豪旅享家会员注册量增长,将整合双方 在住宿、餐饮、本地生活等领域的资源,顺应年轻客群和新兴市场用户的需求,打造酒店与多元化本地 生活相融合的消费场景。 以往在"吃喝玩乐"里的消费,能在出行时转化成更周到的酒店体验服务吗? 美团和万豪的新合作回答了这一问题。5月28日,美团与万豪国际宣布达成战略合作,将发布联合会 员,为会员群体提供"住宿+"等一站式旅游服务,打造涵盖酒店空间到本地生活等多元场景的全方位体 验。 换句话说,我们每天在用的美团与国际酒店集团万豪,实现了"会员互通"。此外,在端午、暑期出行旺 季之际,双方还会联合发放388元"吃喝玩乐住"新会员大礼包,以此满足用户更多元化的深度旅游需 求。 在酒店行业整体走向红海竞争、商旅需求下降、价格战频出的当下,国际高星酒店与美团的联合,既是 引入高价值的新一代年轻会员,也是在用多业态间的相互赋能来顺应当下的性价比趋势,锁住更多会员 的忠诚度。 据一位接近美团的人士透露,近期多家高星酒店集团在和美团接洽,商谈打通会员体系事宜。以万豪为 样板,这样的合作或许会掀起一阵新风潮。 01 万豪、美团,互认身份 此次 ...
“票根经济”激活上海文旅消费,下一步是打破更多壁垒
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-31 06:23
Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of the "ticket root economy" in Shanghai, particularly in the context of large-scale events and performances that drive consumer spending across various sectors [1][3][8] - The initiative aims to transform ticket sales into broader economic benefits by linking entertainment with tourism, hospitality, and retail, thereby creating a closed-loop economy [1][3] Event and Economic Impact - As of April 30, 2023, the Pudong New Area hosted 8,856 performances, including 44 large-scale events with over 10,000 attendees, accounting for 69.84% of the city's total [2] - These events attracted nearly 4.78 million attendees and generated approximately 500 million yuan in ticket sales [2] - The "Follow the Performance to Travel Pudong" initiative aims to encourage longer stays and increased spending by offering discounts on hotels and attractions for ticket holders [3][4] Consumer Incentives - From May 30 to September 30, 2023, consumers can upload their electronic ticket stubs to platforms like Ctrip and Meituan to receive discounts on hotel stays and attraction tickets [4][5] - The maximum discount for hotel bookings is 1,000 yuan per order, while attraction tickets can be discounted by up to 100 yuan [5] Government and Business Collaboration - The Pudong government has allocated 20 million yuan to support this initiative, with a 30% subsidy for hotel bookings and a 20% discount from participating hotels and attractions [6][5] - The collaboration aims to enhance the overall consumer experience and extend the economic benefits of events beyond ticket sales [6][8] Challenges and Future Considerations - Despite the rapid growth of the ticket root economy, challenges remain, including the need for improved incentive mechanisms, data sharing, and consumer experience optimization [8] - The success of the ticket root economy relies on the active participation of both ticket issuers and surrounding businesses, necessitating a comprehensive approach to policy, technology, and evaluation [8]
追求极致性价比的中产,走不出亚朵的套路
3 6 Ke· 2025-05-30 10:17
Core Viewpoint - Atour Hotel has developed a unique "Chinese" language system that distinguishes it from Western hotel brands, but this has led to confusion among guests regarding its space and service names, which are often difficult to understand [1][2][5] Group 1: Brand Identity and Customer Experience - Atour Hotel's naming conventions for spaces, such as "汗出" (sweat out) for the gym and "出尘" (out of dust) for the laundry, are derived from classical poetry, making them obscure for many guests [2][3][5] - The hotel has successfully attracted a segment of middle-class customers who appreciate its artistic flair, despite the confusion it creates for others [7][12] - Customer experiences have highlighted issues with cleanliness and service quality, with reports of unclean facilities and poor service responses [9][11][13] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Atour reported revenue of 1.906 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, with retail revenue growing by 70.9% to 845 million yuan [11] - The average room price decreased by 24 yuan year-on-year to 304 yuan, with an average occupancy rate of 70.2%, down 3.1 percentage points [13][15] - Atour's retail products, such as pillows and bedding, have become significant revenue drivers, indicating a shift in focus from traditional hospitality to retail sales [12][13] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Atour faces increasing competition from both high-end hotels and budget brands that are enhancing their offerings, putting pressure on its market position [16] - The hotel is positioned between luxury brands like Marriott and budget options, which are improving their services and pricing strategies [15][16] - The need for Atour to differentiate itself in a crowded market is becoming more pressing as it navigates challenges from both ends of the market spectrum [16]
一周文商旅速报(5.26—5.30)
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-05-30 09:08
Group 1: Marriott and Meituan Partnership - Marriott Bonvoy announced a partnership with Meituan to integrate resources in accommodation, dining, and local lifestyle, creating a comprehensive experience from hotel stays to local activities [1] - From now until May 27, 2026, Meituan and Dianping members can match their membership levels to corresponding Marriott Bonvoy levels and participate in membership challenges for exclusive benefits [1] - Members can also receive a hospitality voucher package worth up to 388 yuan, covering various experiences [1] Group 2: Domestic Flight Fuel Surcharge Adjustment - Starting June 5, 2025, domestic flight fuel surcharges will be adjusted, with routes of 800 kilometers or less exempt from fuel surcharges, while those over 800 kilometers will incur a fee of 10 yuan per passenger per segment [2] - This adjustment marks a decrease of 10 yuan compared to previous rates, reaching a near one-year low [2] Group 3: Shanghai Peace Hotel Renovation - The Shanghai Peace Hotel will be upgraded to a Raffles brand flagship hotel by 2027, in collaboration between Accor Group and Jin Jiang International [2] - Originally built in 1929, the hotel will continue operations during the renovation and will join the global flagship hotels of Raffles in Singapore and London [2] Group 4: New World Hotel Profit Forecast - New World Hotels announced an expected after-tax profit of no less than 7 million HKD for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, reversing a loss of approximately 20.5 million HKD for the previous year [3] - The profit increase is attributed to the sale of several loss-making subsidiaries and a memorandum of waiver with noteholders, relieving the company of certain liabilities [3] Group 5: Opening of Jiaxing Hilton Hotel - Jiaxing Hilton Hotel officially opened on May 29, featuring 340 rooms and suites, located in the core area of Jiaxing County's high-speed rail new city [4] - The hotel is strategically positioned near Xitang and is approximately 3.5 kilometers from Jiaxing South Station, providing quick access to major cities and airports in the Yangtze River Delta [4] Group 6: Departure of Director at Lujiazui - Lujiazui announced the retirement of director Li Zuoqiang, who will no longer serve on the board or any other position within the company [5]
国际旅业加强布局中国市场,85国展商汇集2025 ITB 上海国际旅游交易博览会
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-05-30 08:38
同时,产业链上下游的众多知名企业也悉数亮相:酒店集团如万豪国际、锦江国际美利亚酒店及度假村 等;目的地管理公司如Nexus DMC、G2 Travel Limited、拉美途等;航空公司如马来西亚国际航空、埃 及航空等;国际邮轮品牌如皇家加勒比、海达路德游轮探险、CroisiEurope等;以及全球知名景点资 源,包括迪士尼乐园度假区、巴黎老佛爷百货、好莱坞环球影城等…… 作为聚焦于中国旅游市场的专业B2B商贸展会,2025 ITB 上海国际旅游交易博览会规模创下历史新高, 汇聚了来自全球的旅游业企业、目的地代表及业内人士,共同探讨旅业未来发展的新趋势。 公开信息显示,2025 ITB 上海国际旅游交易博览会展览面积较去年增长30%,汇聚了来自85个国家的 700余家参展商,吸引了创纪录的1400位特邀买家。这一空前的国际参与规模,不仅体现了全球旅游业 对中国市场的高度关注,也彰显了对中国旅游业发展潜力的坚定信心。 2025 ITB 上海国际旅游交易博览会项目负责人李佳表示:"本届ITB 上海国际旅游交易博览会在规模上 实现了历史性突破,这释放出一个强有力的信号:中国在引领全球旅游业未来发展中持续扮演着关键角 ...
广晟控股集团亮相文博会展示文化与产业融合发展成果
Jing Ji Wang· 2025-05-30 08:09
在5月22日至26日举行的第二十一届中国(深圳)国际文化产业博览交易会上,广晟控股集团携旗下多家企 业,以"文化赋能,攀高奋进"为主题,全面展示了集团通过文化建设赋能企业高质量发展的优秀成果。 在本届文博会上,广晟控股集团展位设计巧妙融入了岭南传统文化元素,分为多个主题区域,涵盖文化成果 展示、互动体验、产品展示等多个板块,展示了集团在文化与产业融合方面的探索与实践。 广晟控股集团在第二十一届中国(深圳)国际文化产业博览交易会上的展位 近年来,广晟控股集团高度重视企业文化和核心理念的塑造与落地,推行FAITH经营理念,即聚焦主业 (Focus)、行胜于言(Actions)、创新制胜(Innovation)、技术自强(Technology)和以人为本(Human- oriented)。广晟控股集团党委书记、董事长吕永钟表示,FAITH经营理念源于对国有企业初心使命的思考,是国 有企业改革发展问题导向与目标导向的结合,不仅是一套管理工具,更是一种信念。未来,广晟控股集团将继续 推动文化与科技深度融合,为集团的高质量发展注入新动能、新活力。(李敏) 广晟控股集团所属广东黄金集团打造的FAITH经营理念模型铜盘 互动 ...
顺义天竺打造航空慢生活特色街区,招募艺术民宿、创意市集等项目
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-05-30 06:34
Group 1 - The "2025 Tianzhu Town Quality Resource Promotion and Investment Attraction Conference" was held, where strategic cooperation agreements were signed with various industry associations, third-party service agencies, and key enterprises in fields such as healthcare, hotels, and sports [1] - The first "Enterprise Reception Room" in Shunyi District was unveiled, designed to provide a "quasi-overseas" business service space for key enterprises, offering free communication venues [1] - Tianzhu Town promoted nearly 3,520 acres of quality land resources, including 12 industrial and commercial buildings and 3 factories, with a focus on the 2801 block and Gangshan block for future development [1] Group 2 - The "Flying Garden Art Street" project in Loutai Village aims to create a multifunctional residential, tourism, and production complex, inviting investment and operational partners to develop a unique suburban lifestyle area [2] - Tianzhu Town is leveraging its proximity to Beijing Capital International Airport to establish a dual-core development path focused on air service and international consumption, aiming to build a modern industrial system [2] - The town is committed to creating an open economic ecosystem with a strategy based on commerce, business, and trade, striving for high-quality economic development [2]
万人演出活动占上海近七成,浦东用演出流量壮大文旅消费链
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-30 05:32
Core Viewpoint - The "Follow the Performance Tour in Pudong" initiative aims to boost tourism consumption by leveraging concert ticket sales, with a significant multiplier effect on local spending [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Concerts - Concert ticket sales have a local consumption multiplier effect of 1:4.8, indicating that for every unit spent on tickets, an additional 4.8 units are generated in local spending [1][3]. - Pudong has hosted 8,856 commercial performances as of April, with 44 large-scale events attracting nearly 4.78 million attendees and generating close to 500 million yuan in ticket sales [3]. Group 2: "Follow the Performance Tour in Pudong" Initiative - The initiative runs from May 30 to September 30, allowing consumers to redeem discounts on hotels and attractions by presenting their concert ticket stubs on platforms like Ctrip and Meituan [4][5]. - Discounts include a maximum of 1,000 yuan off hotel bookings and 100 yuan off attraction tickets, supported by a 30% subsidy from district funds and a 20% discount from participating hotels and attractions [4][5]. Group 3: Future Plans and Assessments - An evaluation of the initiative will occur in late September, with potential for a second phase if necessary [2]. - Pudong plans to host nearly 5,000 performances by September, including major artists, to further enhance the ticket economy [3]. Group 4: Cross-Industry Collaboration - The initiative aims to create a seamless connection between different industries, enhancing the overall consumer experience and driving cross-industry traffic [6][7]. - A robust technical support system is needed to ensure accurate ticket stub recognition and benefit redemption, addressing previous challenges in data sharing across platforms [7].
消费领域呈现出三条趋势主线;微盘风格可能呈现优势边际弱化
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-30 01:11
Group 1: Consumer Trends - The current consumer sector is showing three main trends: rational consumption, quality upgrades, and consumption alternatives coexisting [1] - There is a growing willingness to pay for emotional value and spiritual satisfaction in lifestyle choices [1] - Technological advancements are creating new consumption directions, presenting long-term structural "new consumption" opportunities [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to gradually shift from a balanced allocation to a more flexible allocation in consumer investments [1] - Defensive sectors include consumer internet, undervalued high-return dairy products, and mass catering, which are expected to stabilize first [1] - Cyclical sectors such as restaurant supply chains, alcoholic beverages, human resource services, and hotels are recommended for flexible allocation [1] Group 3: Electric Meter Industry - The annual demand for electric meter tenders is expected to remain around 90 million units, with a peak replacement cycle extending until 2026 [2] - Prices are continuing to decline, with an overall month-on-month decrease of approximately 9.6% [2] - Electric meter companies have shown good dividend payment history, and their valuations are currently considered low [2] Group 4: Micro-Enterprise Investment Landscape - The micro-enterprise investment style may show diminishing marginal advantages, but there are still structural opportunities [3] - Policy support for small and micro technology enterprises is expected to underpin liquidity expectations [3] - The market may see a shift towards high-growth quality small and micro enterprises as liquidity conditions remain favorable [3]