Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative feedback of the recent decline in the steel market has ended, and short - term price increases are mainly due to short - sellers taking profits. Steel demand has entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [2]. - For iron ore, although the supply has recovered and high inventory suppresses prices, the short - term increase in hot metal production supports demand. In the macro - vacuum period, prices will operate within a shock range [5]. - For the black sector, as the time approaches December, the positive impact of macro - expectations on sentiment and prices is expected to increase. It is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The future price increase depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies [10][11]. - Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of "weak supply and demand", with short - term prices likely to be weak and volatile. Polysilicon is still fluctuating between reality and expectations, and prices are in a wide - range shock [15][17]. - For glass, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high inventory, and weak demand, the short - term market will continue to be weak. For soda ash, with high supply and weak demand, prices will continue to oscillate at a low level [20][22]. Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3097 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.441%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3655 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 107385 lots. In the spot market, prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 30 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3302 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton (1.412%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 6484 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 23505 lots. In the spot market, prices in Lecong and Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar shows a pattern of both supply and demand decline and continuous inventory reduction, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, and inventory is accumulating against the season. In the short term, prices are likely to be weak and volatile, but there may be an inflection point in demand later [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 788.50 yuan/ton, up 2.07% (+16.00). The positions increased by 1019 lots to 48.14 million lots. The weighted positions were 90.75 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 53.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.38% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume has recovered significantly. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal output has increased, but the steel mill profitability rate is declining. Port inventory is accumulating. In the short term, prices will operate within a shock range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - The manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.77% at 5792 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 98 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF601) closed up 1.38% at 5566 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 34 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - As the time approaches December, the positive impact of macro - expectations on the black sector is expected to increase. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the operability is low [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9080 yuan/ton, up 0.67% (+60). The weighted contract positions decreased by 2209 lots to 401179 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 52655 yuan/ton, down 2.57% (-1390). The weighted contract positions decreased by 6818 lots to 234241 lots [16]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of "weak supply and demand", with short - term prices likely to be weak and volatile. Polysilicon is still fluctuating between reality and expectations, and prices are in a wide - range shock [15][17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1029 yuan/ton, down 0.29% (-3). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 11.10 million cases (0.18%) [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1231 yuan/ton, up 0.41% (+5). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 0.69 million tons (0.18%) [21]. Strategy Viewpoints - For glass, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high inventory, and weak demand, the short - term market will continue to be weak. For soda ash, with high supply and weak demand, prices will continue to oscillate at a low level [20][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - Australian mainstream iron ore prices generally increased, with Newman powder at 790 (up 10 daily and 18 weekly), PB powder at 793 (up 10 daily and 18 weekly), etc [1] - Brazilian mainstream iron ore prices also had mixed trends, with Baha at 830 (up 10 daily and 14 weekly), while Baha coarse IOC6 was at 770 (down 13 daily and 7 weekly) [1] - Other varieties like Ukrainian concentrate powder, 61% Indian powder, etc also had price changes [1] 3.2 Exchange Contracts - For DCE contracts, i2601 was at 788.5 (up 16.0 daily and 23.5 weekly), i2605 at 756.5 (up 13.0 daily and 14.5 weekly), i2609 at 732.0 (up 10.5 daily and 10.0 weekly) [1] - For SGX contracts, FE01 was at 99.51 (down 0.20 daily and up 1.31 weekly), FE05 at 97.15 (down 0.25 daily and up 1.06 weekly), FE09 at 95.09 (down 0.23 daily and up 0.97 weekly) [1] 3.3 Premiums - Information on U - ball/pellet premium, PB block/block ore premium was presented, but specific data was not fully summarized here [1] 3.4 Basis and Spread - The monthly spread and other relevant data for each contract were given, such as the monthly spread of i2601 was - 56.5 (up 48.1 daily and down 5.2 weekly) [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a short - term rebound supported by policy and environmental protection expectations, but its sustainability is to be observed. The iron ore market is expected to be mainly volatile, and the coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon markets are also likely to be in a volatile state [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread decreased, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. The demand for hot - rolled coils stabilized, production continued to decline, and the inventory accumulation slowed down. - Iron - making water production rebounded, but the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient, the proportion of steel - mill losses increased, and there is a high possibility of further blast - furnace production cuts. - Real - estate investment decline continued to expand, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall, domestic demand was weak, and steel exports declined from a high level. - The previous adjustment of the futures was relatively sufficient, the support at the lower edge of the shock range increased, and short - term rebound was supported by policy and environmental protection expectations [2] Iron Ore - The iron - ore futures rebounded today and fluctuated recently. - On the supply side, global iron - ore shipments increased significantly this period, reaching a high level in the same period in recent years. Shipments from Australia and Brazil increased significantly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries also rebounded to a high level. The domestic arrival volume decreased to below the annual average. - On the demand side, steel demand was weak in the off - season, steel - mill losses intensified, and iron - making water was in a seasonal production - cut trend. - The iron - ore fundamentals became looser, and the futures are expected to fluctuate [3] Coke - The coke price rose today. Coking profits were still average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly, with downstream purchasing on demand and weak trader purchasing willingness. - The supply of carbon elements was abundant, downstream iron - making water was at a high level, but steel - mill profits were average, and there was strong willingness to cut raw - material prices. The coke futures were at a premium, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4] Coking Coal - The coking - coal price rose strongly today. The output of coking - coal mines increased slightly, spot auction transactions were normal, and transaction prices varied. Terminal inventory increased slightly. - The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly, and production - end inventory also increased slightly. Safety inspections were carried out in major coal - producing areas. - The supply of carbon elements was abundant, downstream iron - making water was at a high level, but steel - mill profits were average, and there was strong willingness to cut raw - material prices. The coke futures were at a premium, the coking - coal futures were at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon - manganese price rose today. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high level. The weekly output of silicon manganese continued to decline slightly but was still at a high level, and inventory increased slowly. - The forward price of manganese ore from Comilog increased slightly, and the spot ore price fluctuated quickly. Manganese - ore inventory increased slightly, and contradictions were not prominent. The price had strong bottom support [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price rose today. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high level. Export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, and the marginal impact was small. The output of magnesium metal increased, and secondary demand increased marginally. - Ferrosilicon supply decreased but remained at a high level, and on - balance inventory continued to decline. Due to the increase in electricity and semi - coke prices, the price is expected to be more likely to rise [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. 3. Summary Based on Related Information Futures Prices - DCE01 price is 788.5 today, up 16.0 from yesterday; DCE05 is 756.5, up 13.0; DCE09 is 732.0, up 10.5 [2]. - I01 - I05 spread is 32.0 today, up 3.0 from yesterday; I05 - I09 is 24.5, up 2.5; I09 - I01 is -56.5, down 5.5 [2]. Spot Prices and Related Data - Various iron ore spot prices are provided, such as PB powder (60.8%) at 778 (unchanged from yesterday), Newman powder at 779 (unchanged), etc [2]. - The optimal delivery product is Carajás fines with a price of 840, and its 01 - 09 contract basis is 59, 88, 110 respectively [2]. - Spot variety spreads and import profits are also presented, e.g., Carajás fines - PB powder spread is 100 (unchanged), and the import profit of Carajás fines is 17 (unchanged) [2]. Indexes - The Platts 62% iron ore price is 103.6 (unchanged), 65% is 115.6 (unchanged), and 58% is 92.4 (down 0.2) [2]. - The SGX - DCE spreads are as follows: SGX main - DCE01 is 3.7, down 0.2; SGX main - DCE05 is 7.4, up 0.0; SGX main - DCE09 is 10.2, up 0.0 [2].

Report Overview - The report is the Steel & Iron Ore Daily Report on November 17, 2025, covering industry dynamics, spot and futures markets, relevant charts, and future market judgments [4]. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price strengthened with a daily increase of 1.64%. Supply has shrunk to a low level, but demand has also weakened. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are still under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and cost support. It is expected to continue the volatile trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuated upwards with a daily increase of 1.57%. Both supply and demand have weakened, the industrial contradiction has been alleviated limitedly, and the coil price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support. The subsequent trend will continue the low - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price was strong with a daily increase of 1.81%. Although the demand has improved, its sustainability is questionable, and the supply remains high. The fundamentals have not improved, and the upward driving force is doubtful. The relatively positive factor is the switching of the arbitrage logic of black varieties. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Fiscal revenue and expenditure**: From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 18.649 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The national government - funded budget revenue was 3.4473 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The state - owned land use right transfer income was 2.4982 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [7]. - **Central bank operation**: The central bank will conduct an 800 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on the 17th, with a term of 6 months. In November, the net investment will be 500 billion yuan [8]. - **Steel production**: In October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 63.6916 million tons of crude steel, a year - on - year decrease of 6.7%, with a daily output of 2.0546 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. From January to October, the cumulative production of crude steel was 682 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [9]. 2. Spot Market - **Steel products**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,190 yuan, 3,240 yuan, and 3,266 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,310 yuan, 3,210 yuan, and 3,324 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,970 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 yuan. The coil - rebar price difference was 120 yuan, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,060 yuan [10]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 793 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 803 yuan. The Australian and Brazilian sea freight rates were 10.24 yuan and 23.06 yuan respectively. The SGX swap (current month) was 103.60 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 103.60 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,097 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.64%. The trading volume was 1,329,238 lots, an increase of 560,151 lots, and the open interest was 1,729,748 lots, a decrease of 107,385 lots [14]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,302 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The trading volume was 564,044 lots, an increase of 237,702 lots, and the open interest was 1,263,520 lots, a decrease of 23,505 lots [14]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active contract was 788.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.81%. The trading volume was 351,268 lots, an increase of 84,842 lots, and the open interest was 481,401 lots, an increase of 1,021 lots [14]. 4. Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils from 2021 - 2025 [16][17][19]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and the seasonal inventory of 45 ports from 2021 - 2025 [21][22][25]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts show the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profit - making steel mill ratio of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29][34][35]. 5. Future Market Judgments - **Rebar**: Supply and demand continue to weaken. The weekly output decreased by 8.54 tons, and inventory is high. Demand is also weak, and it is expected to continue to be volatile. Pay attention to demand performance [38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The weekly output decreased by 4.50 tons, and inventory is high. Demand is weakening. It is expected to continue the low - level volatile trend. Pay attention to steel mill production [38]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has not improved. Inventory is increasing. Although demand has improved, its sustainability is questionable, and supply remains high. It is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to steel mill production [39].

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Black: Raw Materials Alternately Decline, Steel Relatively Resilient [1] - **Report Date**: November 17, 2025 [1] - **Reporting Company**: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The raw materials decline alternately while steel shows relative resilience [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Black Sector Performance - Last week, the black sector showed a divergent trend. Steel and iron ore prices remained stable, while coking coal and coke prices dropped significantly. The strength relationship among varieties was iron ore > rebar > hot-rolled coil > coke > coking coal [3]. 3.2 Futures Market Comparison - The futures market showed a differentiated trend, with non-ferrous metals performing strongly [6]. 3.3 Spot Prices - Rebar and iron ore prices increased, while scrap steel prices decreased slightly [8]. 3.4 Profit and Valuation - The profitability of steel mills declined, and the valuation of rebar futures was relatively low [10]. 3.5 Steel Supply and Demand - Both steel production and demand decreased, and inventory was slowly depleted [12]. 3.6 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore arrivals at ports were high, leading to continuous increases in port inventory. Although pig iron production rebounded last week, it is expected to decline again in the future, and the supply-demand pattern of iron ore will gradually become looser [3][21]. 3.7 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production increased slightly last week, and inventory accumulated. The profitability of coking plants was poor, and coke production dropped to a low level, with coke inventory being depleted again [3]. 3.8 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production continued to decline, and inventory was depleted again [26]. 3.9 Variety Spreads - The mill's paper profit rebounded from the bottom, and the rebar-coke price ratio widened [28]. 3.10 Key Data/Policy/Information - Multiple cities in Hebei lifted the emergency response for heavy pollution weather. China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves changed in October. The vice premier will visit Guinea and Sierra Leone and attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project. The US suspended the 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding industry for one year. Xinjiang steel mills' winter maintenance and production cuts are progressing, with an estimated reduction of about 2 million tons of construction steel output, accounting for about 25% of the estimated total output in 2025. Mysteel predicts that the total output of the Simandou project in 2026 will reach 20 million tons. Most provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions have suspended automobile replacement subsidies or scrapping and renewal subsidies. The National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026 [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel market, due to a significant decline in steel mill gross margins and the end of the consumption peak, the scale of steel mill production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal level, potentially triggering a phased negative feedback loop. Recently, the prices of coal and coke have shown signs of weakening, and the price of iron ore has fallen from its high, weakening the cost support for steel. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils have broken below the support of the 10 - day moving average, and are facing a direction choice after a short - term narrow - range oscillation [2]. - For the iron ore market, with the arrival of the consumption off - season, it is expected that the molten iron production will likely continue to decline along the seasonal trend, and the steel mill's production cuts will suppress the raw material prices. On the supply side, the global shipments have declined from their highs, and the port inventory is rising, suppressing the futures price. The slow destocking of steel also dampens the overall market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased month - on - month, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. The inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased month - on - month but remained significantly higher than the same period in previous years. The national building steel output was 200.00 million tons, a decrease of 8.54 million tons (-4.10%); the hot - rolled coil output was 313.66 million tons, a decrease of 4.50 million tons (-1.41%) [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3053 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.23%) from the previous day and 19 yuan (0.63%) from the previous week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3256 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan (0.06%) from the previous day and 11 yuan (0.34%) from the previous week [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase up or sell down. Wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long on dips. It is a medium - term trading strategy. Do not short when the price is low [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The molten iron production of sample steel mills increased month - on - month last week, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, the molten iron production is expected to decline seasonally. The global shipments have decreased from their highs, and it is expected that the arrival volume will decline later. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price, and the slow destocking of steel dampens the market sentiment [3]. - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 772.5 yuan/dry ton, up 12.0 yuan (1.58%) from the previous week. The SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 102.59 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.93 US dollars (-0.90%) from the previous week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and patiently wait for the price to stabilize and then go long on dips [3]. 3.3 Industry News - As of November 14, according to Zhonglian Steel's research, the change in the national blast furnace start - up rate was small. The national blast furnace number start - up rate was 74.21%, flat compared with the previous week and up 0.33% year - on - year; the blast furnace volume start - up rate was 78.36%, down 0.18% compared with the previous week and up 1.21% year - on - year [6]. - As of November 14, according to Zhonglian Steel's research, the start - up rate of electric furnaces in the country increased. The national electric furnace number start - up rate rose 1.28 percentage points to 60.90% compared with last Friday, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate rose 0.61 percentage points to 52.55% [6]. - On November 14, Hebei market steel mills raised the purchase price of coke by 50/55 yuan/ton [6]. - On November 14, Mongolia ETT Company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal was 94.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.4 US dollars/ton compared with the previous period on October 31 [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country was 15129.71 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230.88 million tons [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country was 9076.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.07 million tons [7]. - According to Steelhome data, the total urban inventory this week was 910.07 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.25 million tons (-2.49%) [8].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating of the iron ore industry is ★★ [6] Group 2: Core View - The iron ore inventory continues the accumulation trend, and the overall fundamentals, both in expectation and reality, are turning weaker marginally. It is expected to show a weak and fluctuating trend overall [5][38] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the Iron Ore 2601 contract rose 0.91% [4] 2. Important Market Information - As of the end of October 2025, the broad - money (M2) balance was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and the narrow - money (M1) balance was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. China's industrial added value of large - scale industries in October increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 5.2% and a previous value increase of 6.5%. From January to October, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and the previous value decreased by 0.5%. From January to October, real - estate development investment was 7356.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%; new commercial housing sales were 6901.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%; and the funds in place for real - estate development enterprises were 7885.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7% [17] 3. Supply - side Situation - As of October 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,130.9 million tons, a decrease of 502.1 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was 100.56 US dollars per ton, an increase of 3.61 US dollars per ton from the previous month. The iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 6,684.2 million tons, an increase of 167.1 million tons from the previous month; the shipment volume from Brazil was 2,925.5 million tons, an increase of 105.7 million tons from the first half of the month [22][26] 4. Demand - side Situation - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and the Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume are involved, but specific analysis data are not elaborated in the given text [27][30][32] 5. Fundamental Analysis - In October 2025, China's crude - steel output was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%; pig - iron output was 65.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%; and steel output was 118.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October, China's crude - steel output was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%; pig - iron output was 711.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; and steel output was 1217.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 0.73%; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 0.22%; the steel - mill profitability rate was 38.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.62%; the average daily hot - metal output was 2.3688 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 266,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 94,000 tons. On November 11th, the Simandou Iron Ore Project was launched. Mysteel expects that its impact on global iron - ore supply this year is more symbolic, with the actual incremental volume not exceeding 1 million tons, and conservatively estimates that the combined output of the north and south blocks will reach 20 million tons in 2026. On November 12th, Luo Tiejun of the China Iron and Steel Association met with Vale representatives, hoping that Vale would adapt to the new changes and strengthen cooperation with Sinomine. As of October 14th, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 158.1284 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8871 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.4028 million tons, an increase of 473,000 tons. The total inventory at 45 ports was 151.2971 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3088 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2695 million tons, an increase of 602,000 tons; the number of ships at ports was 116, an increase of 7. The total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 90.7601 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 660,700 tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 2.9263 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 393,000 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.02 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19 days [35][36][37] 6. Market Outlook - The iron ore inventory continues the accumulation trend, and the overall fundamentals, both in expectation and reality, are turning weaker marginally. It is expected to show a weak and fluctuating trend overall [5][38] 7. Operation Strategy - For single - side operations, take a short - position approach with a light position when the price rises. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [6][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks in hot - rolled coils. Future price trends will depend on the production cut rhythm. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the steel consumption side may gradually recover. In the short term, due to cost factors, the price of finished products will continue to be weak and volatile, but there may be an inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment changes [2] - The iron ore supply shows a downward trend in overseas shipments, while the demand has a marginal increase in iron ore due to the rebound of daily hot - metal production. High inventory still suppresses prices, and in the short - term, the ore price will operate within the range of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5] - The black sector has continued to decline in the past week, but as the time approaches December, the impact of macro - expectations on emotions and prices is expected to be positive. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price. For the black sector, the cost - performance of seeking positions for rebound is relatively high [9] - The industrial silicon may present a pattern of "weak supply and demand". The cost provides a bottom - support, and in the short - term, it will be weak and volatile. The follow - up development of the "anti - involution" in the downstream industry needs to be concerned [13] - The polysilicon market is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - reduction expectation has been realized, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. The market is still in a fierce game, and the follow - up progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain need to be concerned [16] - The current float glass market has limited positive factors, and the downstream support is insufficient. High inventory suppresses prices, the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient, and the upward space is restricted [19] - The current soda ash industry has a relatively high supply, and the downstream demand is average. Some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices, and in the short - term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level [21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3053 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.229%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 90327 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The main contract position was 1.837133 million lots, a decrease of 20210 lots. In the spot market, the rebar price in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, with no change, and in Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3256 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.061%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 114083 tons, an increase of 6477 tons. The main contract position was 1.287025 million lots, a decrease of 15482 lots. In the spot market, the hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3270 yuan/ton, with no change, and in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The rebar supply and demand both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, with a neutral overall performance. The demand for hot - rolled coils was weak, unable to absorb the production, and the inventory showed an inverse - seasonal accumulation [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) on Friday was 772.50 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00% (0.00). The position changed by - 13747 lots to 480400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 900800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.73 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.07%. The Ximengdu Iron Ore project was officially put into production on November 11, but it will take time to increase production, and the increase is expected to be limited this year [4] Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline in the latest period. In the shipping end, the shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to fall, with Vale and Rio Tinto contributing to the reduction. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the daily hot - metal production in the latest period was 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons month - on - month. The increase mainly came from Hebei, with the utilization rate of some blast furnaces increasing. The profitability of steel mills continued to decline, and some regional steel mills started blast furnace annual inspections due to losses. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data was weak. High inventory still suppresses prices, and the short - term rebound of hot - metal production supports the iron ore demand marginally. In the short - term, the ore price will operate within the range, and the lower limit is 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On November 14, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.14% at 5748 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 122 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed down 0.29% at 5490 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the futures price [7] - Last week, the manganese silicon price continued to fluctuate, with a weekly decline of 8 yuan/ton or - 0.14%. On the daily - line level, the price was still in the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton, and the price fluctuation continued to narrow. The ferrosilicon price fluctuated and declined slightly last week, with a weekly decline of 56 yuan/ton or - 1.01%. On the daily - line level, it was still in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton [8] Strategy Viewpoints - The black sector continued to decline in the past week. As the time approaches December, the impact of macro - expectations on emotions and prices is expected to be positive. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price. For the black sector, the cost - performance of seeking positions for rebound is relatively high. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore end. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is relatively low [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information (Industrial Silicon) - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2601) on Friday was 9020 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.37% (- 125). The weighted contract position changed by - 15027 lots to 403388 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 330 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 70 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [12] Strategy Viewpoints (Industrial Silicon) - On Friday, the industrial silicon price fluctuated downwards. In the short - term, the price will fluctuate. The supply has shown a contraction trend, and the demand side may reduce the procurement demand for industrial silicon. It may present a pattern of "weak supply and demand". The cost provides a bottom - support, and in the short - term, it will be weak and volatile. The follow - up development of the "anti - involution" in the downstream industry needs to be concerned [13][14] Market Information (Polysilicon) - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2601) on Friday was 54045 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.28% (- 150). The weighted contract position changed by + 3947 lots to 241059 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a basis of - 1745 yuan/ton for the main contract [15] Strategy Viewpoints (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon market is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - reduction expectation has been realized, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. The market is in a fierce game, and the follow - up progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain need to be concerned [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information (Glass) - The glass main contract closed at 1032 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2.27% (- 24). The price of large plates in North China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1140 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, an increase of 0.18% (111000 boxes). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased 61127 lots of long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 78307 lots of short positions [18] Strategy Viewpoints (Glass) - The current float glass market has limited positive factors, and the downstream support is insufficient. High inventory suppresses prices, the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient, and the upward space is restricted [19] Market Information (Soda Ash) - The soda ash main contract closed at 1226 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.05% (- 13). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1176 yuan, a decrease of 18 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, a decrease of 0.69 million tons (an increase of 0.18% in the wrong calculation in the text). Among them, the inventory of heavy soda ash was 907100 tons, an increase of 7500 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 800200 tons, a decrease of 14400 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced 22518 lots of long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 3823 lots of short positions [20] Strategy Viewpoints (Soda Ash) - The current soda ash industry has a relatively high supply, and the downstream demand is average. Some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices, and in the short - term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level [21]

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures prices are under pressure due to weak supply and demand fundamentals, with a recommendation for investors to avoid chasing high prices and maintain a low inventory strategy [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 14, 2025, iron ore futures closed at 772.5 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.91% [1]. - The weekly trading range for iron ore futures was between 762.5 CNY/ton and 780.5 CNY/ton, with a lowest point of 756.5 CNY/ton [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Consumption - National steel mills' imported iron ore inventory reached 90.76 million tons, an increase of 660,700 tons week-on-week [2]. - The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 2.93 million tons, up by 39,300 tons from the previous week [2]. - The inventory-to-consumption ratio stands at 31.02 days, a decrease of 0.19 days [2]. Group 3: Transaction Data - On November 13, the total iron ore transactions at major ports reached 1.05 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.28% [2]. - The forward spot index for 62% Australian iron ore was 102.55 USD/dry ton, down by 0.05, with a monthly average of 102.72 [2]. Group 4: Institutional Insights - Guodu Futures noted that the recent U.S. government funding bill has ended a prolonged government shutdown, but the iron ore market remains under pressure due to declining shipments and production [2]. - CICC Wealth Futures indicated that while macro sentiment is improving, the long-term supply-demand balance remains loose, predicting limited rebound space for iron ore prices [3].