今日，A股继续小幅震荡，主要股指涨跌互现，北证50涨1.23%，科创50坚守1000点大关，上证指数、沪深300等则 微幅飘绿。受节日效应影响，市场成交小幅萎缩，维持低位运行。 盘面上，PEEK材料、动物保健、医疗美容、日用化工等板块涨幅居前，纺织制造、电力、石油、酿酒等板块跌幅 居前。 | ▼指 | 代码 名杯 | | 张帽%↓ | 现价 | 涨跌 | 洪价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 聚集龙 301131 | R | 20.01 | 45.88 | 7.65 | 45.88 | | 2 | 301076 新潮新材 | R | 19.99 | 41.17 | 6.86 | 41.17 | | 3 | 300225 金力泰 | | 19.88 | 3.86 | 0.64 | 3.85 | | 4 | 301209 联合化学 | R | 18.19 | 98.00 | 15.08 | 97.86 | | 5 | 832469 富恒新材 | R | 15.07 | 16.80 | 2.20 | 16.80 | | 6 | 837023 芭 ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is currently experiencing a tight balance between supply and demand, with recent events such as the explosion at Iran's Abbas port potentially impacting future supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - As of April 24, domestic methanol operating rates are at 71.04%, a decrease of 2.47 percentage points from the previous month, but an increase of 2.45 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The explosion at Iran's Abbas port, which handles over 55% of Iran's non-oil cargo, raises concerns about its impact on methanol shipments, although most other ports are operating normally [1]. - China's methanol port inventory stands at 463,200 tons, down by 122,400 tons week-on-week, while production enterprise inventory is at 309,800 tons, a slight decrease of 2,600 tons [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand situation remains tight, but demand indicators show weakness, particularly in traditional sectors like BDO, which are experiencing declining production [2]. - The upcoming May Day holiday is contributing to poor downstream stocking sentiment, with low inventory levels reported [2]. - Despite the explosion in Iran, the government has acted quickly to mitigate the situation, with firefighting efforts reportedly 80% complete by April 27, suggesting minimal short-term impact on methanol supply [2]. Price Outlook - Port and enterprise inventories continue to decline, supporting near-term prices, but the overall industry faces risks from potential supply increases and weakening demand [3]. - Current industry profits are concentrated in the methanol sector, but there is an expectation that profits will gradually shift downstream, putting pressure on methanol prices [3]. - The methanol market is anticipated to face further downward pressure on prices due to a seasonal decline in demand, with recommendations to adopt a short position on high prices [3].

| 十미 [2011 ] 1292号 | *业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年4月29日 | | | | 纪工非 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 4月28日 | 4月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 9550 | 9600 | -50 | -0.52% | | | 章美(通到SI5530星准) | 770 | 725 | 45 | 6.21% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 10400 | 10450 | -50 | -0.48% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 820 | 775 | 45 | 5.81% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8800 | 8800 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 820 | 725 | ರಿನ | 13.10% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 4月28日 | 1月0日 | 演 佚 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 250 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on April 29, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From April 22 to April 28, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 141.4, - 143.4, - 144.4, - 146.4, - 147.4 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend. The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month spreads were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis Data**: For crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, relevant basis and ratio data are presented. For example, on April 28, 2025, the basis of INE crude oil was - 40.24 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1469 [9]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: For commodities like natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc., basis data from April 22 to April 28, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of natural rubber on April 28 was - 180 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for multiple chemical commodities are given, such as the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of natural rubber being - 985 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - variety spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are presented. For example, on April 28, 2025, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2170 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis Data**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from April 22 to April 28, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on April 28 was 121.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of rebar was - 97.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - variety spreads such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, etc. are presented. For example, on April 28, 2025, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.40 [15]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from April 22 to April 28, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of copper on April 28 was - 40 yuan/ton [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Data**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on April 28, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was 28.60, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.27 [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from April 22 to April 28, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on April 28 was - 265 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for multiple agricultural products are given, such as the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 being 8 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - variety spreads like the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, etc. are presented. For example, on April 28, 2025, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.79 [37]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from April 22 to April 28, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on April 28 was 51.02 [47]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month to current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 32.8 [47].

戴一帆：Z0015428 周燕勤：F03129302 黄思婕：F03130744 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 号 周度观点 南华苯乙烯产业链数据周报20250427 港口去库，基差走弱 | | 上游(纯苯) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 截至4月24日，石油苯开工率71.1%，环比+0.8%;加氢苯开工率58.2%,环比-3.1%。据评估，2025年3月韩国出口纯苯总计31.48 万吨,其中出口至中国29.02万吨。 | | | 库存 | 截至4月21日,江苏纯莱港口库存12.1万吨,较上期去库2.1万吨,环比下降14.79%。 | | | | 中游(苯乙烯) | | | 供应 | 截至4月24日,苯乙烯开工率67.9%,环比+1.1% | | | 库存 | 截至2025年4月21日，江苏莱乙烯港口库存8.65万吨，较上周期去库0.91万吨，幅度一9.52%；截至2025年4月24日，中国苯乙烯 | | | | 工厂样本库存量21.63万吨,较上一周期增减少0.22万吨,环比减少1%。 | | | 利润 | 截至4月24日,苯乙烯一体化利润在-379元/吨附 ...

期货研究报告|EB 周报 2025-04-27 纯苯加工费同期低位，下游开工仍偏低 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 苯乙烯观点 ■ 市场要闻与重要数据 上游方面：本周国内纯苯开工率 71.12 %（0.72 %），国产开工仍处于偏低位，但 5 月 油化工整体开工回升；国内纯苯下游开工虽底部反弹，但 CPL 及苯胺仍处于开工偏低 位，苯乙烯开工仍等待回升，下游开工偏低。 纯苯华东港口库存 12.10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - In the spot and futures market, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,179 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton (-1.67%) from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,216 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.45%). The spot basis of EG in East China was 21 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. After Trump's attitude softened, concerns about plant shutdowns due to high ethane import tariffs eased on Thursday, leading to a decline in EG prices [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$66/ton, up $3/ton from the previous period. The production profit of coal - based syngas EG was -227 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data, the MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 77.5 tons, up 0.4 tons from the previous period. According to Longzhong data, it was 68.8 tons, down 1.9 tons from last week. The planned arrivals at major ports this week were 19.6 tons, slightly on the high side. The inventory has rebounded compared to Monday. The current inventory is at a seasonal median level in the past five years, and the hidden inventory is still high. Attention should be paid to the impact of de - stocking on port inventory [1]. - On the supply side, with the centralized maintenance of coal - based plants, the domestic supply of EG has declined. The Sino - US trade war also affects the supply of ethylene glycol. On the demand side, the polyester load has remained stable at a high level in the near term, but the textile and clothing orders directly exported to the US are still on hold. The overall EG inventory is at a seasonal median level in the past five years. There is some de - stocking support in April, but the hidden inventory of polyester factories is still high, limiting the actual de - stocking amplitude of port inventory [1][2]. 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - hedge MEG. Given the US tariff increase and OPEC+ production increase, the medium - term outlook for crude oil prices is weak. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiations. The fundamentals of MEG itself are acceptable, but the textile and clothing demand outlook remains weak due to the suspension of direct exports to the US [3]. - Inter - period: No strategy provided. - Inter - variety: No strategy provided. 4. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the closing price of the main EG contract, the spot price of EG in the East China market, and the spot basis of EG in East China, along with their changes from the previous trading day [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows the production profits of ethylene - based EG, coal - based syngas EG, and other production methods, as well as their changes from the previous period [1]. International Price Difference - The international price difference between US FOB and Chinese CFR for ethylene glycol is presented [17]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Information on the sales and production of long - filament and short - fiber, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun long - filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle - chip is provided [18][20][24]. Inventory Data - Data on the inventory of ethylene glycol at major ports in East China, including overall inventory and inventory at specific ports, as well as the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories and the daily outbound volume at major ports in East China are given [1][28][31][33][36].

【苯乙烯现货】 华东市场苯乙烯震荡走稳，至收盘现货7500-7550，4月下7510-7550，5月下7490-7550，6月下7370- 7470，单位：元/吨。美金市场重心走高，外盘货源供应偏紧，内外盘价格维持倒挂，日韩装置进入检 修，以国内出口商谈为主，5月船货买盘935 LC90 ，单位：美元/吨。 【纯苯现货】 纯苯价格同样上涨，至收盘江苏港口现货及4月下商谈6210 / 6250元/吨，5月下商谈6180 / 6230元/吨，6 月下商谈6150 / 6200元/吨。美金市场FOB韩国5月737，6月736；CFR中国5月752，6月750，单位：美 元/吨。 纯苯库存：截至4月21日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存12.1万吨，环比去库2.1万吨，下降14.79%；同比上 高3.53万吨，上升41.19%。 苯乙烯供应：截至4月17,苯乙烯工厂整体产量在30.58万吨，较上期降0.76万吨，环比-2.43%；工厂产能 利用率66.77%，环比-1.64%。 苯乙烯库存：截至4月21日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存8.65万吨，较上周期减少0.91万吨，幅度-9.52%。 华南苯乙烯港口样本库存2.66万吨，较 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Methanol is in a pattern of strong current situation but weak future expectation, with supply expected to rise significantly, which is bearish for the future market, but low inventories in the inland and coastal areas still support the market to some extent [2] - Urea's supply is at a high level, and the concentrated start of demand at the end of April or early May may drive the market to stabilize and rebound [3] - Polyolefin futures prices continue to decline, with high supply pressure in the polyethylene market and weak demand, while polypropylene has less supply pressure but weak demand [4] - Styrene has an expectation of increased supply and weakened demand, and the overall demand outlook is gloomy [6] - In the polyester industry, PTA's supply and demand are expected to decrease, and the impact of production cuts is limited; ethylene glycol's supply and demand are both expected to decline; short fiber fluctuates with raw materials; bottle chip's supply and demand are weak [7] - PVC may fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for caustic soda [8] - Glass futures prices decline, and the decline space is expected to be limited; soda ash futures prices continue to fall, and it is not recommended to go long [9] Commodity Summaries Methanol - Inland production enterprises have low inventories, and the recent inland market remains strong. However, after Iran's full复产, the arrival speed of ships has rebounded rapidly, and the import volume in coastal areas is expected to gradually return at the end of this month. The high supply expectation is bearish for the future market, but low inventories still support the market [2] Urea - The futures price rebounds slightly. Supply is at a high level, and demand is affected by the season. The concentrated start of demand at the end of April or early May may drive the market to stabilize and rebound [3] Polyolefins - Futures prices decline. Polyethylene has high supply pressure and weak demand, while polypropylene has less supply pressure but weak demand [4] Styrene - The futures price consolidates narrowly. Supply is expected to increase, demand continues to weaken, and the overall demand outlook is gloomy [6] Polyester - PX and PTA fluctuate, and the impact of PTA production cuts is limited. Ethylene glycol's supply and demand are both expected to decline. Short fiber fluctuates with raw materials, and bottle chip's supply and demand are weak [7] Chlor - Alkali - PVC may fluctuate at a low level. Caustic soda production may be at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures prices decline, and the decline space is expected to be limited. Soda ash futures prices continue to fall, and it is not recommended to go long [9]

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年4月16日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 现值 | | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 1250 | | 1250 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 1370 华东报价 | | 1370 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 1180 | | 1180 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1330 | 1330 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1144 | 1152 | -8 | -0.69% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1181 | 1206 | -25 | -2.07% | | | 05基差 | 106 | ರಿ8 | 8 | 8.16% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 肌值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | ...