Main Variety Views Macroeconomy - Overseas: Trump reached a trade deal with Japan, the US imposed a 19% tariff on Philippine goods, the US - Indonesia agreement was finalized, and China - US will restart trade negotiations in Sweden. The dollar index fell to 97.3, and the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped to 4.35%. [2] - Domestic: A 1.2 - trillion Tibet hydropower project and industry supply - side optimization policies boosted market sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3580, and the trading volume in the two markets rebounded to 1.93 trillion. [2] Precious Metals - International precious metal prices rose. Gold reached a nearly five - week high above $3400 per ounce, and silver neared $40. Trade uncertainties and low US bond yields drove the increase. [3] - With the US - EU trade negotiation at a standstill and political intervention risks, the safe - haven appeal of precious metals increased. Prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. [3][4] Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper and LME copper rose. The domestic spot market was active, and LME inventory increased to 12.5 tons. [5] - Trump's pressure on Powell, China's policies, and supply - demand fundamentals are expected to keep copper prices bullish in the short term. [5][6] Aluminum - Shanghai and LME aluminum prices rose. Aluminum ingot inventory increased, and aluminum rod inventory decreased. [7] - High overseas macro uncertainties and domestic policies boosted sentiment. Despite the high price and off - season consumption, the market is still bullish. [7] Alumina - Alumina futures and spot prices rose. Some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance in late July, tightening supply. [8][9] - Alumina is expected to remain bullish, but over - heating risks should be noted. [9] Zinc - Shanghai and LME zinc prices were bullish. The spot market was affected by high prices, and the transaction was mainly among traders. [10] - Overseas uncertainties, domestic policies, and LME's potential squeeze situation are expected to drive zinc prices to continue to rebound. [10] Lead - Shanghai and LME lead prices were volatile. The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead was limited, and downstream consumption improvement was limited. [11] - With cost support and limited upward drivers, lead prices will be volatile. [11] Tin - Shanghai and LME tin prices were bullish. The market atmosphere was warm, but the fundamentals were weak, with inventory likely to increase. [12] - Tin prices may be bullish in the short term due to capital, but continuous growth is not supported. [12] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon rose significantly. The spot price increased, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased due to reduced production. [13] - Supply contraction and policies are expected to keep industrial silicon prices bullish in the short term. [13][14] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium futures and spot prices rose. Policy intervention and production line maintenance affected the market. [15] - Policy - driven lithium prices may be bullish, but demand - side signals need attention. [15][16] Nickel - Nickel prices were bullish. Nickel ore prices were weakening, and nickel - related products showed different trends. [17][18] - Overseas trade risks and domestic policies will make nickel prices volatile. [18] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices were weak. US API inventory decreased, and global oil demand growth may be affected by the economy and tariffs. [19] - Geopolitical risks are cooling, and the market is in a short - term bullish and long - term bearish situation. Short - term prices will be volatile. [19] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel futures were bullish. Coal policies and production control supported steel prices. [20] - Iron ore futures were bullish. Port inventory increased, and the market was driven by macro factors and improved fundamentals. [21] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal futures rose. Brazilian soybean exports may decrease, and US soybean压榨利润 decreased. [22] - Weather in August and trade agreements will affect prices. Domestic policies and supply expectations will keep prices volatile. [22][23] Palm Oil - Palm oil futures rose. Malaysian palm oil production may increase, and exports decreased in the first 20 days of July. [24] - Domestic policies and potential supply - demand tightening are expected to make palm oil prices volatile and bullish. [25][26] Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing price, change, change percentage, trading volume, and open interest of various metal futures contracts on July 22, 2025. [27] Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents detailed data on copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coal, carbonate lithium, industrial silicon, and bean and rapeseed meal, including price changes, inventory, and basis. [28][33][35]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 23 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, etc. For each sub - sector, the report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, option factors, and provides corresponding option strategies and suggestions [3][9] - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical futures contracts such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2509) is 504, down 3 with a decline of 0.55%, and its trading volume is 14.38 million lots, a decrease of 0.66 million lots [4] 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - The volume - to - open - interest PCR data of different energy - chemical options are provided, including volume PCR and open - interest PCR and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.53, an increase of 0.04, and the open - interest PCR is 0.56, a decrease of 0.05 [5] 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various option underlying assets are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 640 and the support level is 500 [6] 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different energy - chemical options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 28.55%, and the weighted implied volatility is 32.63%, an increase of 1.51% [7] 3.3 Strategies and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil Options**: The OPEC + will increase oil supply by 550,000 barrels per day in August. The crude oil market is short - term weak. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG Options**: The LPG futures are in a short - term bearish market. It is recommended to construct a bearish short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.3.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol Options**: The methanol market shows a weak rebound. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: The ethylene glycol market is in a narrow - range, weak - bullish oscillation. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.3.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene Options**: The polypropylene market is weak. It is recommended to use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.3.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber Options**: The rubber market shows a low - level consolidation. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy [12] 3.3.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA Options**: The PTA market is weak. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy [13] 3.3.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda Options**: The caustic soda market is bullish. It is recommended to use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] - **Soda Ash Options**: The soda ash market is bullish. It is recommended to construct a bull - spread call option strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] 3.3.7 Urea Options - The urea market oscillates under bearish pressure. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]

首席点评 ： 我国外汇市场表现韧性，美国关税政策仍存扰动 美国总统特朗普发文表示，刚刚与日本达成了一项大规模协议，这可能是有史以来最大的一笔协议。日 本将向美国投资 5500 亿美元，美国将获得 90% 的利润。这项协议将创造成千上万的就业机会 —— 这 是前所未有的。也许最重要的是，日本将开放其国家的贸易，包括汽车和卡车，大米和某些其他农产 品，以及其他东西。日本将向美国支付 15% 的对等关税。 7 月 22 日，国新办就 2025 年上半年外汇收 支数据情况举行新闻发布会。国家外汇管理局副局长李斌在回答中国证券报记者提问时表示，今年以 来，外汇形势复杂多变，风险挑战明显增加。面对外部冲击，我国外汇市场顶住压力，运行平稳，表现 出较强韧性。国内商品期货夜盘，原油主力合约收跌 0.55% 报 503.8 元 / 桶。贵金属方面，沪金收涨 0.91% 报 792.94 元 / 克，沪银涨 0.75% 报 9453 元 / 千克。 重点品种：黄金、原油、钢材 黄金： 金银走强。 8 月 1 日新的关税大限前市场避险需求有所升温，此外美元和美债收益率的走弱为 黄金提供上行驱动。此前传闻称特朗普考虑解雇鲍威尔，后特 ...

当地时间周二（7月22日），美国股市三大股指收盘涨跌不一，其中标普500指数继续上行，创收盘历史新高。 中概股普遍上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨1.7%。 日元兑美元跳水，特朗普称将对日本商品征收15%关税，日本将向美国投资5500亿美元。 标普500指数创历史收盘价新高 当地时间7月22日，美国股市三大股指收盘涨跌不一，其中道琼斯工业指数收盘涨0.4%，报44502.44点，标准普尔500指数收盘涨0.06%，报6309.62点，纳 斯达克综合指数收盘跌0.39%，报20892.69点。值得注意的是，当天标准普尔500指数创出历史收盘价新高。 美股大型科技股涨跌互现。英伟达跌超2%，Meta跌逾1%，微软跌近1%，亚马逊跌0.8%，特斯拉涨逾1%，苹果涨近1%，谷歌涨0.65%。 美股银行股多数上涨，富国银行涨逾2%，花旗集团涨超1%，美国银行涨0.53%，摩根大通涨0.11%，高盛跌0.81%，摩根士丹利跌0.29%。 能源股集体上涨，康菲石油、斯伦贝谢涨逾2%，西方石油涨超1%，埃克森美孚涨0.41%，雪佛龙涨0.24%。 航空股涨跌互现，美国航空涨超1%，西南航空涨0.81%，美联航跌逾1%，达美航空跌 ...

Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results with the S&P 500 index reaching a new all-time closing high [1][5][4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.4% to close at 44,502.44 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.06% to 6,309.62 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.39% to 20,892.69 points [5] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks exhibited varied performance, with Nvidia down over 2%, Meta down more than 1%, and Microsoft nearly 1% lower, while Tesla and Apple saw gains of over 1% [6] - Bank stocks generally rose, with Wells Fargo up over 2% and Citigroup up more than 1%, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley experienced slight declines [7] - Energy stocks collectively increased, with ConocoPhillips and Schlumberger rising over 2% [8] Chinese Stocks - Chinese concept stocks saw a general increase, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 1.7% [2][10] - Notable performers included Daqo New Energy up over 16% and NIO up more than 10%, while Huya fell over 5% [11] International Trade Developments - President Trump announced a significant agreement with Japan, involving a 15% reciprocal tariff on Japanese goods and a $550 billion investment from Japan into the US [3][14] - The agreement is expected to create numerous jobs and open Japanese markets to US products, including automobiles and agricultural goods [14] Autonomous Driving Technology - Xiaoma Zhixing announced that its seventh-generation Robotaxi has tested over 2 million kilometers, featuring a Level 4 vehicle-grade domain controller that reduces costs by 80% compared to previous generations [12]

Group 1 - India's energy dependence on Russian oil has surged from less than 2% to over 35% in two years due to the ongoing geopolitical situation [3][5] - The primary motivation for this shift is cost savings, with Russian oil being $6 to $8 cheaper per barrel compared to Middle Eastern oil, resulting in over $10 billion in annual savings for India [5][7] - India has become a significant intermediary in the oil trade, processing Russian oil and selling it to Western markets, generating over $19 billion in net profits from this trade in 2024 [10][12] Group 2 - India's refining capacity is heavily optimized for processing Russian crude oil, making it challenging to switch to other suppliers without incurring significant costs and downtime [15][17] - The monthly cost of modifying refineries to accommodate different types of crude oil is estimated at $150 million, with potential production halts adding to the financial burden [17][19] - India's strategic oil reserves are only sufficient for 90 days of consumption, which is below the international standard of 150 days, leaving little room for maneuver in case of supply disruptions [21][23] Group 3 - The European Union has spent €21.9 billion on Russian energy, highlighting a double standard in the enforcement of sanctions, as many countries continue to engage in trade with Russia [28][30] - Public sentiment in India shows a strong preference for maintaining ties with Russia, with 78% of the population viewing Russia as a reliable partner [35][37] - The geopolitical landscape is characterized by selective enforcement of sanctions, with various countries, including the U.S., maintaining some level of trade with Russia while pressuring others to cut ties [39][41] Group 4 - The U.S. has issued a 50-day ultimatum to India regarding its oil imports, which is seen as a strategic move to pressure India while also considering the potential backlash from rising oil prices domestically [41][49] - India is leveraging this time to enhance its negotiating power, exploring alternative payment methods for energy trade that bypass the U.S. dollar [43][45] - The outcome of this geopolitical chess game could lead to a new energy order, with potential compromises from all parties involved to maintain a delicate balance [53][55]

特朗普政府此前表示，将从8月1日开始对众多贸易伙伴输美产品征收高关税，美国与欧盟和日本等主要 贸易伙伴的谈判尚未取得突破，欧盟和加拿大等在准备采取可能的报复措施。 标普全球在21日晚些时候发布的调查数据显示，行业分析人士认为，上周美国商业原油库存环比下降 310万桶，汽油和蒸馏油库存则预计分别下降了200万桶和80万桶。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美国总统特朗普22日下午在社交媒体上宣布与到访的菲律宾总统马科斯达成贸易协议。特朗普表示，菲 律宾将对美国开放市场并实施零关税，美国则将对菲律宾商品征收19%的关税。 不过，美国与菲律宾达成的贸易协议没有显著降低菲律宾输美产品的关税税率。 新华财经纽约7月22日电（记者刘亚南）贸易紧张继续打压石油需求前景，国际油价在隔夜市场下跌， 22日盘中弱势盘整，尾盘跌幅收窄，收盘时国际油价均下跌。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌99美分，收于每桶66.21美元，跌幅为 1.47%；9月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌62美分，收于每桶68.59美元，跌幅为0.90%。 三菱日联金融集团（MUFG）分析师Soojin Kim表示，由于美国与贸易伙伴达成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical struggle over energy security has intensified, particularly between the U.S. and China, with significant implications for global oil markets and trade dynamics [1][3][10]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Responses - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has threatened to impose up to 100% secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, which has caused significant volatility in global energy markets [3][6]. - Trump's ultimatum to Russia regarding oil imports aims to cut off funding for the ongoing conflict, with a deadline set for August 1 [1][6]. - The U.S. government's hardline stance has been met with skepticism, as analysts warn that such tariffs could lead to a new trade war and increase inflation in the U.S. [6][10]. Group 2: China's Position and Strategy - China has firmly stated its commitment to maintaining energy cooperation with Russia, with projected imports of Russian oil reaching $76.4 billion in 2024, accounting for 30% of its total oil imports [5]. - The Chinese government has drawn a clear line against unilateral sanctions and has emphasized the importance of national sovereignty in its energy dealings [5][10]. - China's energy strategy includes significant investments in Russian projects, such as the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline and Arctic LNG projects, which rely on Chinese funding and technology [5][10]. Group 3: Global Energy Market Dynamics - The geopolitical tensions are reshaping the global energy landscape, with a shift towards a multipolar energy structure involving China, Russia, and Iran [10]. - Emerging market countries are increasingly resistant to U.S. sanctions, with nations like Turkey, Hungary, and Serbia continuing to import Russian oil [10]. - Analysts suggest that the U.S. strategy may backfire, as high oil prices resulting from sanctions could contradict political commitments to control inflation [6][10].

Group 1 - China is investing billions to boost domestic oil production and develop the electric vehicle (EV) industry to reduce reliance on imported oil and enhance national security [1][2] - In 2022, over 40% of passenger cars sold in China were new energy vehicles, indicating a significant shift towards EVs [1] - China's state-owned oil company, China National Petroleum Corporation, reported capital expenditures of approximately $38 billion, comparable to the total of ExxonMobil and Chevron [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government is implementing measures to support the nascent EV industry, including subsidies for public charging infrastructure and requirements for new residential buildings to install charging stations [2] - As of May 2023, China has over 14.4 million charging interfaces, significantly outpacing the United States, which has around 230,000 public and private charging stations [2] - By the end of 2023, over 80% of urban buses in China are expected to be fully electric or hybrid [2] Group 3 - Chinese EV factories are becoming symbols of manufacturing strength, with one manufacturer automating the entire production process using over 800 robots [3] - A Chinese electric vehicle boasts a range of approximately 700 kilometers, surpassing the average range of American electric vehicles by about 300 kilometers [3] - In contrast, the growth rate of EV sales in the U.S. is slower, with electric and hybrid vehicles increasing from 12% to 20% of light vehicle sales from early 2022 to the end of the year [3]