原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2026-2-13 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 05 后市研判 重点数据 （1）美国至2月6日当周EIA原油库存 853万桶，预期79.3万桶，前值-345.5万桶。 （2）美国至2月6日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 107.1万桶，前值-74.3万桶。 （3）美国至2月6日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 -0.1万桶，前值21.4万桶。 主要观点 受地缘政治不确定性升温影响，本周原油市场整体偏强运行。一方面，美伊在阿曼首都举行的间接谈判未取得实 质性进展，双方核心分歧依然显著，市场对谈判破裂的担忧加剧，地缘风险溢价因此获得支撑；另一方面，美国总统 特朗普表示将向中东增派第二艘航母，并威胁若谈判失败将对伊朗实施军事打击，供应中断风险进一步推升油价。往 后看，油价走势将主要取决于美伊局势的演变路径：若双方达成超预期协议，地缘风险溢价回吐及伊朗潜在供应回归 将对油价形成压制；若谈判维持僵局，不确定性本身将持续为油价提供支撑；若谈判破裂甚至爆发军事冲突，供应中 断预期可能引发盘面 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The financial market in 2026 is characterized by a rare interplay of political pressure and economic adjustments, with trade rhetoric and geopolitical tensions remaining active [1] - Inflation has slowed down, prompting renewed discussions on interest rate directions globally, influenced by various macroeconomic factors rather than a single mainstream narrative [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical developments, particularly tensions surrounding Greenland and U.S. trade policies, are significantly impacting risk appetite and commodity pricing, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2] - The Middle East's situation continues to affect energy market dynamics, with ongoing supply shock risks keeping the oil market on alert despite recent stability [2] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. inflation rates have decreased from 3% to approximately 2.7% since Q4 2025, influencing market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Differentiated monetary policies among central banks are shaping market behaviors, with some countries adopting easing measures while others maintain a neutral stance due to domestic growth constraints [3] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices are under pressure due to easing geopolitical risks and concerns over supply surplus, with prices fluctuating within a range despite structural supply-demand imbalances [6][8] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices are facing resistance near $61, with key support levels around $58, influenced by moving averages and Fibonacci retracement levels [8] Group 5: Currency Market Trends - The EUR/USD exchange rate has been declining, influenced by positive U.S. non-farm data and the Federal Reserve's potential for rate cuts, while the European Central Bank appears reluctant to lower rates further [9][11] - Current technical indicators suggest that the EUR/USD is testing significant resistance levels, with potential support around $1.17, indicating a cautious trading environment [11]

石油输出国组织（欧佩克）在最新的月度报告中维持全球石油需求预期不变。欧佩克表示，近期多个产 油区地缘局势紧张、对供应中断的担忧、全球经济增长和宽松的金融政策均对油价企稳和未来油市需求 提供了支撑。 供应中断担忧改善市场情绪国际油价明显反弹 2026年1月，全球范围内涉及产油国的地缘扰动不断，在此背景下，国际油价结束下滑趋势、出现显著 回升。根据欧佩克最新发布的月度报告，1月份，欧佩克参考篮子（ORB）价格环比上涨0.61美元／ 桶，平均至62.31美元／桶；ICE布伦特原油期货价格环比上涨3.10美元／桶，平均至64.73美元／桶； NYMEX的WTI原油期货价格环比上涨2.39美元／桶，平均至60.26美元／桶。 对此，欧佩克报告认为，市场对短期油市基本面的判断发生转变是1月份油价走强的重要原因。 报告称，当前的低利率政策为家庭和企业创造了更宽松的融资环境，有效提振了石油产品核心领域的消 费活力。尽管经济增长仍存在地区差异，部分经济体失业率略有攀升，但宽松的货币政策为全球经济复 苏提供了有力支撑。"这使得2026年全球石油需求增长140万桶／日、2027年增长130万桶／日的预测更 为可信。"报告认为。 值 ...

国家知识产权局信息显示，恒力石化（大连）炼化有限公司取得一项名为"合成氨用冷却装置"的专利， 授权公告号CN115451747B，申请日期为2022年8月。 天眼查资料显示，恒力石化（大连）炼化有限公司，成立于2014年，位于大连市，是一家以从事石油、 煤炭及其他燃料加工业为主的企业。企业注册资本1759633万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，恒力石 化（大连）炼化有限公司共对外投资了13家企业，参与招投标项目329次，专利信息193条，此外企业还 拥有行政许可5089个。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 ...

（一）重要市场新闻 1.美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌1.34%，纳指跌2.03%，标普500指数跌1.57%，大型科技股普跌，苹果 跌5%，博通跌超3%，亚马逊、Meta、特斯拉跌超2%；存储概念股、食品百货涨幅居前，闪迪、希捷 科技涨超5%，西部数据、沃尔玛涨超3%。中概股普遍下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌2.97%，哔哩哔 哩跌近5%，百度集团跌超4%，世纪互联涨超3%，金山云涨逾2%。欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国 DAX指数跌0.01%报24852.69点，法国CAC40指数涨0.33%报8340.56点，英国富时100指数跌0.67%报 10402.44点。 2.2月12日，美国上周初请失业金人数为22.7万人，预估为22.4万人，前值为23.1万人。国际油价集体下 挫，截至发稿时，美油主力合约跌2.65%，报62.92美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌2.59%，报67.6美元/ 桶。国际贵金属价格大幅下挫，现货黄金一度跌破4900美元关口，截至发稿时，现货黄金跌3.27%，报 4917.09美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货跌3.19%，报4936美元/盎司。现货白银跌10.84%，报75.07美元/盎 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Index futures (IH, IF, IC, IM), rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, corn [5] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, methanol, steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, apple [5] Core Views - The IEA has lowered the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 and expects a daily surplus of 373,000 barrels, mainly due to increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries [1][3][12] - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that Brazil's cotton exports in the 2025/26 season will reach 14.5 million bales, a 6% year-on-year increase [1] - The COMEX's silver inventory has decreased, with a net out-of-warehouse volume of 4.7 million ounces in 24 hours [1] - Most domestic futures contracts fell at the night session, with crude oil down over 2% and caustic soda up over 3% [1] - The overall stock index is expected to continue its phased bullish pattern in February, but potential disturbances from overseas capital markets during the Spring Festival holiday should be watched out for [4][10] - For precious metals, after market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel, and investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][17] Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day International News - US President Trump is expected to visit China in early April, and President Xi Jinping will meet with him. The China-US trade "ceasefire" is expected to be extended [6] Domestic News - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1-trillion-yuan outright repurchase operation on February 13, with a 6-month term. The 6-month outright repurchase will be increased for the sixth consecutive month, with an increase of 50 billion yuan [7] Industry News - The Ministry of Education has issued an opinion on deepening the reform of key elements in vocational education teaching, focusing on adding new majors in fields such as low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence [8] 2. Daily Returns of External Markets - Most external market varieties showed price declines on February 12, with London silver having the largest drop of 10.73%, followed by ICE Brent crude oil at 2.99% and London gold at 3.17%. Only a few varieties such as ICE No. 2 cotton, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT wheat showed price increases [9] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**：The overall stock index is expected to continue its phased bullish pattern in February, but potential disturbances from overseas capital markets during the Spring Festival holiday should be watched out for [4][10] - **Treasury Bonds**：Treasury bond futures prices are expected to stabilize, and cautious operation is recommended before the Spring Festival [11] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**：sc crude oil fell 5.14% at the night session. The global oil market is facing a large surplus, with supply growth outpacing demand [3][12] - **Methanol**：Methanol fell 0.04% at the night session. The overall coastal inventory is basically flat, and the inventory process is slow [13] - **Natural Rubber**：Natural rubber slightly declined. With the approaching Spring Festival, risk control and position reduction are recommended [14] - **Polyolefins**：Polyolefin futures mainly fell. The market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and short-term prices follow cost fluctuations [15] - **Glass and Soda Ash**：Glass futures slightly fell, and soda ash futures mainly declined. The supply and demand of glass are gradually being repaired, while the supply of soda ash has slightly shrunk, and the effectiveness of supply and demand repair needs further observation [16] Metals - **Precious Metals**：Precious metals fell, with silver having a larger decline. After market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel, and investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][17] - **Copper**：Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [18] - **Zinc**：Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non-ferrous metals. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [19] - **Aluminum**：The short-term industrial situation of aluminum is relatively weak, but in the long term, low inventory, supply constraints, and stable demand provide relatively strong support for the price [20] - **Lithium Carbonate**：The market sentiment has turned weak again, and the futures price of lithium carbonate has continued to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to the right-side trading opportunities after volatility reduction and participate cautiously [21][22] Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**：The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a volatile trend at the night session. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the trend of hot metal production, mine operation, and import policies [23] - **Steel**：The steel market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to continue the volatile and weak pattern [24] - **Iron Ore**：The short-term iron ore price is expected to maintain a volatile and weak operation, and steel mills are expected to replenish inventory on demand [25] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**：Domestic soybean meal has strengthened following the external market, but the high inventory and sufficient supply in the far month are expected to continue to put pressure on prices [26][27] - **Oils and Fats**：Oils and fats showed a weak and volatile trend at the night session. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is in the de-stocking cycle, and prices are expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [28] - **Sugar**：Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short term, with the international sugar price breaking through the downward trend [29] - **Cotton**：Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a range-bound trend in the near term, with potential pressure on the upside in the short term [30] - **Hogs**：The short-term hog price may show a narrow-range shock, supported by sentiment and local inventory replenishment, but the overall upside space is limited [31] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**：EC rose 6.4%. Before the Spring Festival, it is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and after the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the verification of cargo volume expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters [32][33]

石油股早盘普跌，截至发稿，中石化(00386)跌4.06%，报5.43港元；中石油(00857)跌3.28%，报9.15港 元；中海油服（601808）(02883)跌3.06%，报9.49港元；中海油(00883)跌2.79%，报24.42港元。 银河期货高级研究员赵若晨表示，市场的交易逻辑从"地缘优先"切回"供需优先"的临界点在于美伊谈判 取得实质性成果，若达成短期框架，油价或大幅回吐地缘溢价，而再次交易供应过剩的基本面。而库存 持续的大幅增长、OPEC+超预期的增产以及需求的走弱都会压制原油价格上方空间。 消息面上，周四，WTI原油期货收跌2.77%，报62.84美元/桶。布伦特原油期货收跌2.71%，报67.52美 元/桶。美国总统特朗普当地时间2月12日表示，美国"必须"与伊朗达成协议，否则局势将"非常严重"。 特朗普称希望美伊"一个月左右"达成协议。此外，EIA最新数据显示，截至2月6日当周，美国原油库存 激增853万桶，创下自去年1月以来最大单周增幅。 ...

来源：陕西都市快报 美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌1.34%，纳指跌2.03%，标普500指数跌1.57%，大型科技股普跌，苹果 跌5%。利弗莫尔中概股龙头指数收跌2.64%，热门中概股普跌。 WTI原油期货价格收跌2.77%，报62.84美元/桶。布伦特原油期货价格收跌2.71%，报67.52美元/桶。 贵金属重挫，COMEX黄金期货收跌3.08%，报4941.4美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货收跌10.62%，报 75.01美元/盎司。 OpenAI发布首款基于半导体初创公司Cerebras Systems芯片的人工智能模型GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark。 来源：陕西日报 智通财经 编辑：高磊 美国上周初请失业金人数为22.7万人，预估为22.4万人，前值为23.1万人。 人工智能初创企业Anthropic完成300亿美元融资，投后估值达3800亿美元。 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 2 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周四油价大幅下挫，其中 WTI 3月合约收盘下跌 1.79 美元至 62.84 美元/桶，跌幅 2.77%。布伦特 4 月合约收盘下跌 1.88 美元至 67.52 | | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 2.71%。SC2604 456.3 元/桶收盘，下跌 24.4 元/ 以 桶，跌幅 5.14%。IEA 在周四发布的最新月度石油市场报告中称， | | | | | 今年全球石油需求增速将比预期更加缓慢，同时预测全球市场将 继续面临大规模的供应过剩，尽管 1 月份的中断削减了供应。受 | | | | 原油 | OPEC+产油国以及非 OPEC+的供应增加推动，2026 年将出现 373 | | 震荡 | | | 万桶/日的供应过剩。这一预测与上月报告预测的 369 万桶/日过剩 | | | | | 相差不大。这一规模的过剩量将战全球需求的 4%左右，并且高于 | | | | | | 其他预测机构的数值。美国总统特朗普表示，伊朗须与美国达成 | ...

2026年初，全球能源市场的宁静被特朗普的一条推特打破了。这条看似简单的社交媒体信息，实则是一场胜利宣言，最终引发了令人意想不到的连锁反应， 彻底打乱了印度原本精心计算的能源策略，也让中俄的能源合作意外地愈加紧密。 事情的经过其实并不复杂。特朗普为了拉拢印度，孤立俄罗斯，采取了极限施压策略。他宣布通过关税作为手段，逼迫莫迪政府切断与俄罗斯的石油供应。 特朗普在推特上高调宣称历史性胜利，表示莫迪已经承诺放弃进口俄罗斯石油，作为交换，美国将原本计划加征的50%关税降至18%。这显然是典型的特朗 普式交易——先用重击打击，再给出一颗甜枣，希望能达成自己的目的。 然而，特朗普未曾预料到的是，他的极限施压不仅未能让俄罗斯屈服，反而让印度陷入了困境。普京没有给莫迪留下任何余地，既然印度的态度含糊不清， 俄罗斯便直接断供，拒绝继续提供石油，毫不拖泥带水。 在2025年，印度可是俄罗斯石油的大客户。那时，印度每天进口俄罗斯约200万桶原油，享受着俄罗斯石油的低价优惠，每年节省约40亿美元。这对于长期 面临财政赤字的印度来说，无疑是一笔巨大的节约。然而，特朗普并不允许印度在两者之间左右逢源，要么选择购买美国石油并签署5000亿 ...