Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall market, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the medium and long - term, the idea of buying on dips is the main strategy [4]. - Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies. For example, precious metals are expected to show strong performance; some metals like copper and aluminum have certain price support but also face resistance; and some agricultural products like sugar are expected to be bearish in the long - term but with short - term uncertainties [7][11][86]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Li Qiang plans major projects; the Ministry of Commerce imposes temporary anti - subsidy measures on EU dairy products; spot gold hits $4400/oz, up nearly 68% this year; Goldman Sachs expects a bull market in Chinese stocks next year, with corporate earnings potentially growing 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, and the stock market may rise 38% by the end of 2027 [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the end of the year, some funds cash in on profits, and the market faces uncertainty. But in the long - run, it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts had different declines; the 12 - month LPR remained unchanged; the central bank issued 40 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong; there was a net withdrawal of 6.36 billion yuan in liquidity on Monday [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The unchanged LPR is in line with expectations. The economy has stable production but weak service and demand. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.60%, silver rose 2.30%; COMEX gold and silver had corresponding prices; the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts changed, and the Bank of Japan's policy statement affected the market [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The release of overseas central bank policy risks boosts market sentiment. Gold and silver prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The unchanged LPR and strong precious metals prices pushed copper prices up. LME inventory decreased, and domestic inventories and premiums had corresponding changes [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's loose policy and strong precious metals support copper prices. But there is resistance due to the higher - than - expected 2026 copper concentrate processing fee and weak November consumption. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Domestic aluminum inventories increased, and prices oscillated down. LME inventory was flat, and premiums had corresponding changes [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overall inventory is relatively low, and there is support from overseas supply disruptions and the precious metals market. But there are pressures from tariff hikes and the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate and rise [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also had a price increase. There were corresponding changes in inventories, premiums, and other indicators [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease. The price is expected to be weak in the medium - term but may rise in the short - term due to macro - sentiment [14]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. There were changes in inventories, premiums, and other aspects [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic lead supply is tightening, and the price is expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short - term [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded sharply. Spot premiums and cost - end prices had corresponding changes [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure is still large, but the bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin main contract price declined. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi had different production situations, and the demand was weak [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index and futures contract price of carbonate lithium increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is relieved, and the bullish trend is not over. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options lightly [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined, and there were changes in positions and premiums [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of alumina is hard to change. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price rose, and there were changes in positions and spot prices [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The reduction of Indonesia's nickel ore production target affects the market. The actual spot trading is light. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy implementation [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. There were changes in positions, trading volume, and prices [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is firm, and there are supply disruptions. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. There were changes in positions, spot prices, and inventories [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market oscillates. The terminal demand is weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The winter storage willingness is not strong [29]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose. There were changes in positions and spot prices [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, and the demand for iron water declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory was at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate [31]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price declined, and the inventory increased. The soda ash main contract price also declined, and the inventory increased [32][34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate narrowly. The soda ash demand is weak, and it is advisable to short - sell [33][34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon increased. There were changes in spot prices and premiums [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market macro - sentiment is stable. The future market is affected by the black market trend, cost, and supply. Attention should be paid to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon main contract price declined. The polysilicon main contract price also declined. There were changes in positions, spot prices, and inventories [40][42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon supply may decrease, and the demand is weak. The polysilicon production is expected to decline, and the demand is weak. The prices are expected to fluctuate [41][43]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated. There are different views on the market from bulls and bears. The tire enterprise operating rates and inventories had corresponding changes [45][46][47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to operate short - term and hedge partially [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures and related refined oil futures prices increased. The European ARA refined oil inventories had different changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot and main futures prices of methanol had corresponding changes [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will consolidate. The port pressure remains, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and main futures prices of urea had corresponding changes [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand has improved, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. It is recommended to buy on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene increased. There were changes in premiums, inventories, and operating rates [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, costs, operating rates, and inventories [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price declined. There were changes in supply, demand, inventories, and profits [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to improve, but the inventory is high. Attention should be paid to the risk of price rebound [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price increased. There were changes in operating rates, inventories, and processing fees [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has high maintenance, and the demand will decline. It is advisable to go long on dips [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract price increased. There were changes in operating rates, inventories, and valuations [66][67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX inventory is expected to increase slightly in December. It is advisable to go long on dips [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, operating rates, and inventories [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE valuation has limited downward space. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, operating rates, and inventories [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is seasonally weak. The inventory pressure is high. The market may be supported in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog prices fluctuated. The demand after the Winter Solstice decreased but still supported the price [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand has decreased marginally, but the supply is large. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term support [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable. The supply was normal, and the market trading was tepid [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to squeeze the premium. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term pressure [77]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price increased. The domestic soybean meal price increased, and there were changes in inventories and压榨量 [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import cost has a bottom, and the soybean meal is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data had different changes. The domestic oil prices rebounded [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The palm oil supply is large in the short - term but may reverse in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to operate based on high - frequency data [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The spot prices of different regions had corresponding changes. The import and production data of different countries had different changes [83][84][85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. It is advisable to be bearish in the long - term but wait and see in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price increased. The spot price increased, and there were changes in import, inventory, and operating rate data [87][88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand is not bad after the peak season. The price is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [89].

养殖油脂研究中心|农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月20日星期六 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链周度策略报告 摘要 豆油：本周，豆油主力合约大幅下挫。南美大豆主产区天气较好， 美豆出口速度放缓，CBOT大豆承压运行。中加贸易关系或有向好 预期，菜油下跌 ...

中信证券指出，离岛免税政策的优化与海南封关在即创造了潜在消费增量空间。重点建议关注财富效应 传导、供给端优化推动的经营拐点机会，包括受益于资本市场财富效应潜在传导的偏高端消费，如出境 游、酒店、博彩、免税、奢侈品&高端美护、高端地产物业等。 东方证券认为，白酒行业业绩迈入"L型底"后，头部企业"类债资产"属性强化，当下股价位置赔率佳， 板块股价有望依靠估值抬升驱动。预计2026上半年白酒业绩有望实现较为充分的下修，进而迈入环比改 善阶段，这也将标志着食品饮料行业整体业绩筑底。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 农业ETF天弘（512620）紧密跟踪中证农业指数，覆盖养殖、农化等领域，成分股汇聚牧原股份、温氏 股份、海大集团等农业龙头企业，实现多元化布局，还配置了场外联接基金（A类010769，C类 010770）。 消息面上，免税概念龙头股中国中免午后触及涨停，截至收盘，涨8.25%，成交超63亿元，总市值重返 1700亿上方。 此外，海关总署数据显示，中国11月份玉米及玉米粉进口56万吨，同比增87.5%。11月份小麦及小麦粉 进口25万吨，同比增278.6%。 12月19日，食饮板块盘中活跃，中证食品饮料指 ...

Core Insights - Jiang Village Academy, established in the historical context of Kaixian Gong Village, aims to explore rural revitalization and urban-rural integration through practical training and research [1][2][3] Group 1: Academy Development - Jiang Village Academy has conducted 28 training sessions with over 3,142 participants in just two months since its opening [1][4] - The academy features a "1+8+N" curriculum structure, focusing on sociology, rural revitalization, and other relevant topics, with a total building area of 13,000 square meters [3][4] - The academy has attracted various participants, including government officials, scholars, and students, indicating its broad appeal and relevance [4][5] Group 2: Economic Transformation - Kaixian Gong Village has undergone significant economic transformation, moving from a "weak economic village" to a "provincial-level characteristic rural village" with projected tourism revenue exceeding 100 million yuan by 2024 [3][5] - The village's collective income has increased significantly, with average collective income per village now exceeding 6 million yuan, driven by the development of secondary and tertiary industries [6][7] - The local government has invested 200 million yuan in pollution control and rural beautification, which has facilitated this transformation [3][6] Group 3: Urban-Rural Integration - The integration of urban and rural areas is emphasized, with urban development providing the necessary support for rural revitalization [6][7] - The "1020" plan aims to allocate industrial land to rural areas, enhancing their economic capacity and generating additional income through industrial leasing [6][7] - The academy serves as a platform for dialogue between urban and rural stakeholders, fostering mutual understanding and collaboration [7][8] Group 4: Social and Cultural Impact - The academy's activities are designed to address contemporary issues in rural development, with a focus on understanding the socio-economic dynamics of rural communities [8][11] - Participants have expressed a desire to learn from the village's transformation, highlighting the importance of integrating traditional knowledge with modern practices [8][11] - The academy aims to contribute to the broader narrative of rural revitalization in China, positioning itself as a thought leader in this field [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience and continuous production of agricultural products in Shandong, China, even during the winter season, showcasing the region's ability to supply fresh produce year-round. Group 1: Agricultural Production - Shandong is recognized as a major agricultural province responsible for the national "vegetable basket" supply, maintaining a continuous supply chain throughout the year [1] - The winter season does not hinder the production capabilities of Shandong, as evidenced by thriving greenhouse operations and marine ranches [1] Group 2: Unique Agricultural Products - The article describes various unique products from Shandong, such as oysters with 30% higher amino acid content compared to other regions, highlighting the natural advantages of the local ecosystem [7] - The region's vegetables, including a record-breaking scallion measuring 2.68 meters, demonstrate exceptional growth and flavor characteristics [9][10] - The article emphasizes the quality of local produce, such as the crispness of radishes and the sweetness of winter jujubes, which are attributed to the region's favorable growing conditions [12][20] Group 3: Production Scale and Reach - Shandong produces over 450 million tons of vegetables annually, with a trading volume of approximately 9 million tons, covering over 20 provinces and extending to Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, and Russia [22][23]

记者 陈灏 叶婧 王鸿硕 山水资源、红色资源、特色产业资源、人力资源汇聚相融，形成了一批年收入过亿元的差异化互补 振兴集群；蜜桃、葫芦、番茄等产业，从核心村不断向产业链上下游延伸，为富民强村、乡村振兴注入 强劲而持续的产业动能……齐鲁沃野间，一场重塑乡村面貌和发展格局的深刻变革徐徐拉开大幕。 近年来，我国农业第一大省山东，既融合借鉴"千万工程"不同发展阶段的有益经验，又结合本地实 际，把距离相近、功能相容、产业相关、有发展潜力的若干村作为基本单元，顺应农村人口变化和村庄 发展趋势，因村因地连片规划、连片建设，全要素推进"五大振兴"。 目前，山东已梯次建设乡村振兴片区2070个，覆盖约三分之一的行政村，乡村振兴"齐鲁样板"正在 一个个片区中发展壮大。 产业"一盘棋" 一堵高大厚实的土墙，将第七代冬暖式大棚内外隔绝成冬、春两个季节。 大棚外，寒风凛冽，草木凋敝；大棚内，温湿度适宜，青、黄、橙、红等不同颜色的番茄正成串次 第成熟……这里是"中国蔬菜之乡"寿光市所辖的古城街道，当地3万多亩"七彩番茄"丰收，通过冷链物 流直达北上广深的商场和超市。 "若不是片区产业聚指成拳，我们就没有如今强大的市场议价能力。"古城街道 ...

（记者 王晓波） 每经AI快讯，唐人神（SZ 002567，收盘价：4.43元）12月19日晚间发布公告称，公司第十届第八次董 事会会议于2025年12月19日在湖南省株洲市国家高新技术产业开发区栗雨工业园公司总部会议室以通讯 方式召开。会议审议了《关于制定<银行间债券市场债务融资工具信息披露管理制度>的议案》等文 件。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——海南封关首日直击：为中国探路，全球最大自贸港如何重塑开放边界？ 2025年1至6月份，唐人神的营业收入构成为：饲料产业占比60.25%，猪种苗产业占比34.1%，肉类产业 占比5.58%，动保业占比0.06%。 截至发稿，唐人神市值为63亿元。 ...

消息面来看，据人民财讯，12月18日，五粮液召开"第二十九届12·18共识共建共享"大会，五粮液集团 (股份)公司党委书记、董事长曾从钦表示，五粮液将着力构建主品牌"一核两擎两驱一新"的产品体系 昨日（12月18日），A股三大指数涨跌不一。 热门ETF中，据Wind数据，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）昨日（12月18日）获净申购达200万份，居深 市同类第一。此外，农业ETF天弘（512620）截至12月17日，已连续4日获资金净流入，累计"吸金"近 5000万元。 食品饮料ETF天弘（159736，场外C类001632）跟踪中证食品饮料指数，仓位布局高端、次高端白酒龙 头股，兼顾饮料乳品、调味、啤酒等细分板块龙头，前十权重股包括"茅五泸汾洋"、伊利、海天等。 农业ETF天弘（512620）紧密跟踪中证农业指数，覆盖养殖、农化等领域，成分股汇聚牧原股份、温氏 股份、海大集团等农业龙头企业，实现多元化布局，还配置了场外联接基金（A类010769，C类 010770）。 此外，据央视新闻，记者从中国科学院青藏高原研究所获悉，该所古生态与人类适应团队联合全球数十 家科研机构，破解了大麦种子休眠的关键机制，为应对 ...

截至目前，银川已向3962户从事种植养殖、自主创业的农户发放"富民贷"3.6亿元，累计发放额达 8.85亿元，惠及8275户农户。 与此同时，银川超额完成近1500栋老旧日光温室改造，推动设施农业向高效化、数字化转型；42家 就业帮扶车间吸纳近3000人就业，年人均收入超过4万元；高素质农民"头雁"行动培育新型职业农民， 直播带货等新技能拓宽了农产品销路。一系列"稳心"实事多维度拓宽增收渠道，让群众的日子越过越红 火，乡村振兴的根基愈发坚实。 "十四五"期间，银川市持续推进民生"十心"实事，聚焦就业创业、产业发展等核心领域，通过设施 农业提质、就业车间稳岗、金融赋能增收、人才培育助力等务实举措，将"承诺账单"变为群众"幸福清 单"，让大家的"钱袋子"越来越鼓。 其中，"富民贷"是撬动农户增收的关键抓手。这款产品凭借额度高(每户最高20万元)、门槛低、期 限长、利率优的突出优势，精准破解了农户"贷款难、贷款贵、担保缺"的发展堵点。永宁县李俊镇的香 芹种植户马万林，靠着"富民贷"将零散种植拓展至千亩规模，实现标准化、集约化经营；闽宁镇养殖户 妥万德则通过贷款扩大养殖规模，肉牛存栏量从40头增至260头，产业发展步 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-18 生猪备货开始，需求驱动反弹 油脂：昨日继续偏弱运行 蛋白粕：国储拍卖持续，双粕或震荡偏弱 玉米/淀粉：多空交织，盘面僵持 生猪：备货逐渐开始，需求驱动反弹 天然橡胶：关注短期压力位力度 合成橡胶：多头情绪延续偏强 棉花：政策端故事提振棉价 白糖：供应压力边际增大，糖价承压 纸浆：期货来回波动，现货持续走低 双胶纸：刚需购销为主，纸价平稳运行 原木：供应压力边际缓解，原木平稳运行为主 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 生猪观点：备货逐渐开始，需求驱动反弹 主要逻辑：冬至备货逐渐开始，需求阶段性改善，驱动猪价低位反弹，但 考虑到生猪供应压力依旧存在，价格波动区间预计有限。（1）供应：短 期，12月二育大猪开始出栏，据涌益监测，12月上旬二育存栏总量环比- 16.99%，大猪供应市场。中期，2025年上半年全国能繁母猪产能尚在高位 波动，并且1月~10月新生仔猪数量持续环比增加，按照养殖周期推算，预 计2026年4月之前商品猪出栏量持续过剩。长期，2025年三季度能繁母猪 产能开始出现去化 ...