1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Plastic and PP prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the near term. The L - PP spread is predicted to decline due to potential new plastic capacity and the end of the agricultural film peak season [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率下降1.5个百分点至87.5%左右，处于中性水平，因新增裕龙石化HDPE 2线等检修装置 [15]. - PP开工率上涨0.5个百分点至81.5%左右，处于中性偏低水平，因东莞巨正源一期二线、独山子石化老二线等检修装置重启开车 [15]. 3.2 Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of December 5, PE下游开工率环比下降0.54个百分点至43.76%，处于近年同期偏低位水平，农膜进入旺季尾声，农膜和包装膜订单均下降 [21]. - As of the week of December 5, PP下游开工率环比上涨0.10个百分点至53.93%，处于历年同期偏低水平，拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于44.1%，塑编订单环比小幅下降，略低于去年同期 [21]. 3.3 Plastic基差 - The basis of the 01 contract dropped to 4 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level, as the decline of the spot price was greater than that of the futures price [25]. 3.4 Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 670,000 tons week - on - week, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a relatively high level in recent years [28].

Group 1: Company Overview - Shandong Kaiguite Plastic Industry Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the high-end plastic industry park in Ju County, with products exported to Europe, America, and Central Asia [1] - The company has experienced a 60% year-on-year increase in order volume, particularly for self-developed high-end products like rice husk tableware and functional preservation films, achieving a daily shipment volume of 5,000 to 6,000 boxes [1] - To seize market opportunities and strengthen its industry position, the company plans to expand biodegradable product capacity and upgrade product testing equipment, enhancing core competitiveness through technological iteration [1] Group 2: Financial Services - Ju County Rural Commercial Bank focuses on online digital financial services, with the "Plastic Ten Thousand Families" special credit product at its core, precisely addressing the high-quality development needs of plastic enterprises [2] - The bank has integrated multi-dimensional data from various government departments and industry associations to create a comprehensive data system, enabling it to capture the financing needs of enterprises for capacity expansion and upgrades [2] - The "Plastic Ten Thousand Families" service allows for a streamlined online financing process, with loans approved and funds disbursed within 48 hours, significantly improving the efficiency of obtaining financing for enterprises [2][3] Group 3: Impact on Industry - Shandong Kaiguite Plastic Industry has deeply integrated with the "Plastic Ten Thousand Families" online digital financial service, allowing for efficient management of loans and repayments through mobile banking [3] - The bank has provided over 210 million yuan in loans to 25 enterprises in the Ju County plastic industry association, leading to an increase in production capacity of nearly 20,000 tons and promoting the transformation of the county's plastic industry towards environmental protection, high-end products, and internationalization [3] - The online service model of the bank has broken spatial and temporal limitations, enhancing financing efficiency and positioning "Plastic Ten Thousand Families" as a strong engine for high-quality development in the county's plastic industry [3]

PP日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月05日 【行情分析】 截至12月5日当周，PP下游开工率环比上涨0.10个百分点至53.93%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于44.1%，塑编订单环比小幅下降，略低于去年同期。12月5 日，新增中景石化一期二线等检修装置，PP企业开工率下跌至82%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉 丝生产比例下降至27%左右。月初石化累库较多，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平。成本端，特 朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，不过近期俄乌和谈达成可能性不大， 里海管道联盟2号单点系泊严重受损，原油价格低位震荡。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广 西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有增加。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单开始下降，BOPP膜 价格下跌后暂稳，市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。国家 发展改革委会同有关部门及相关行业协会召开会议，研究制定价格无序竞争成本认定标准等相关工 作，给予大宗商品一定提振，但PP供需格局整体未改，宏观暂未有进一步利好，预计近期PP偏弱震 荡。 【期现行情】 【冠通期货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The export profits of polypropylene (PP) are being compressed due to rising near-sea freight rates and a strengthening RMB, leading to limited growth in export volumes expected for November and December [1][9]. Group 1: Export Volume and Pricing - Domestic suppliers are continuously lowering offshore quotes to stimulate foreign demand, but rising near-sea freight rates and a stronger RMB are limiting the completion of export orders, with expected export volume for November and December remaining between 250,000 to 280,000 tons [1][9]. - Southeast Asia is the main destination for China's PP exports, with Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines accounting for 32.33% of the total export volume. However, the export volume has been declining due to reduced overseas maintenance and insufficient demand during the peak season, with a total of 777,100 tons exported in Q3, a 6.56% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2][9]. Group 2: Freight Rates and Market Conditions - In Q3, the shipping market was weak due to uncertainties surrounding US-China tariffs and a lack of demand, leading to delayed shipping times. However, entering Q4, the near-sea freight rates, particularly in Asia, have increased significantly due to pre-Spring Festival shipping demand, with rates rising to a nearly 10-month high of $540/TEU, a 31.39% increase from mid-October [4][9]. - The increase in near-sea freight rates is putting pressure on export profits, becoming a key variable affecting export orders [4][9]. Group 3: Currency Impact - The RMB has strengthened against the USD, with the exchange rate surpassing 7.10, reaching 7.0796 on November 26, the highest level since November 2024. This appreciation is partly driven by market expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][7]. - A stronger RMB negatively impacts export companies as it reduces the profit margins when converting USD payments into RMB, thereby limiting the negotiation of some export orders [6][7].

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-03 供需弱势压制反弹空间 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6831元/吨（+28），PP主力合约收盘价为6410元/吨（+13），LL华北现货为6750 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6880元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6350元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-81元/吨（-28），LL 华东基差为49元/吨（-28）， PP华东基差为-60元/吨（-13）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.5%（+1.8%），PP开工率为78.1%（-0.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为316.1元/吨（+4.5），PP油制生产利润为-453.9元/吨（+4.5），PDH制PP生产利润 为-596.6元/吨（-35.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为44.1元/吨（+3.0），PP进口利润为-230.6元/吨（+2.9），PP出口利润为-22.4美元/吨（-0.4）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为49.0%（-0.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.7%（-0.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.1%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.6% ...

每经AI快讯，12月2日，万凯新材（301216）(301216.SZ)公告称，公司与法国Carbios公司签署协议，将 在中国成立合资公司，建设年处理5万吨废料的生物酶解聚PET再生项目，项目总投资约9.22亿元。万 凯新材出资70%，Carbios出资30%。Carbios作为法国最具创新力的生物材料科技企业之一，是全球生物 酶法塑料再生技术的开创者和领导者。此外，万凯新材还计划增资Carbios以获得其董事会席位。该项 目旨在推动消费后PET再生循环产业化，确立公司在再生PET领域的竞争领先地位。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply pressure of polyolefins remains high, with new production capacities being put into operation. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, and the peak - season performance is below expectations. The demand in the north is decreasing, and the follow - up of orders is limited. The cost support from crude oil is weak. Although there is some boost from the anti - disorderly competition policy, the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and polyolefins have insufficient upward momentum. It is expected that the upward space of polyolefins in December is limited. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The plastic operating rate has dropped to around 88%, at a neutral level, and the PP enterprise operating rate remains at around 83%, at a slightly low - neutral level. New production capacities such as ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical HDPE, and PP have been put into operation, and more are expected in December. [3] - As of the week of November 28, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3%, and the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83%. However, the plastic - braiding operating rate of the PP drawing downstream decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%. [3] - In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly high - neutral level in recent years. The cost support from crude oil is limited, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline in the future. [3] 3.2. Market Review - In late November, the decline of the spot price was greater than that of the futures price, and the basis of plastics decreased but remained at a slightly low - neutral level. The PP basis continued to decline slightly and was at a low level. [15][20] 3.3. Plastic Production - In October 2025, the PE maintenance volume decreased by 14.29% month - on - month to 45.63 million tons, and the PE production increased by 6.54% month - on - month to 2.8836 million tons, reaching a record high. [24] - In October 2025, the PP maintenance volume increased by 2.47% month - on - month to 776,100 tons, and the PP production increased by 4.63% month - on - month to 3.5038 million tons, also reaching a record high. [32] 3.4. Plastic Operating Rate - In October 2025, the PE operating rate increased by 1.58 percentage points to 82.01%. Recently, the plastic operating rate has dropped to around 88%. [28] - In October 2025, the PP operating rate increased by 0.94 percentage points to 77.26%. Recently, the PP enterprise operating rate remains at around 83%. [36] 3.5. PE and PP Imports and Exports - In October 2025, China's PE imports were 1.0112 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.23%, and exports were 83,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.42%. The net imports decreased by 18.99% year - on - year. [43] - In October 2025, China's PP imports were 273,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.16%, and exports were 235,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.62%. It is expected that PP net imports will decline. [49] 3.6. Polyolefin Downstream - From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of plastic products was 65.573 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, and the export amount was 614.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of - 1.0%. [53] - As of the week of November 28, the PE downstream operating rate decreased, and the PP downstream operating rate increased slightly, but the plastic - braiding operating rate of the PP drawing downstream decreased. [57] 3.7. Polyolefin Inventory As of November 28, the petrochemical early - morning inventory was flat at 650,000 tons compared with the previous period, and was 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The destocking of petrochemicals slowed down in November, and the inventory is at a slightly high - neutral level in recent years. [61] 3.8. Polyolefin Profit In November, the profits of all processes of LLDPE and PP were in the red. Except for a slight increase in the profit of methanol - made LLDPE and PP, the profits of other processes declined. [65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week's view on PE is that the decline in price has not significantly compressed the valuation, monomers have rebounded slightly, and there are expectations of increased supply and decreased demand. The overall supply of PE is loose, with a 16% growth in total effective production capacity and an 18% increase in domestic production. Although imports have declined year - on - year, the ample supply is suppressing prices. The total PE operating rate is 84.5% (+1.8%). [6] - On the demand side, the operating rate of the agricultural film industry has started to decline, and orders are mostly coming to an end. The packaging film market has limited support from the e - commerce festival, and the operating rates of PE packaging film, PE pipes, and PE hollow products have all decreased. [7] - The cost - end support for PE is average. The downstream agricultural film and packaging film industries have strong rigid demand support, but considering the decline in the agricultural film operating rate and the increasing supply pressure at the end of the year, the market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic. Q4 may gradually enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, putting pressure on prices. [8] - Valuation shows that production profits are generally compressed, and the valuation compression in the monomer segment is the most obvious. The profit margins of MTO and ethylene - purchasing processes have slightly declined. In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short position on rebounds for single - sided trading, with the 01 contract having an upper pressure level of 6900 and 7000 and a lower support level of 6750. Cross - period and cross - variety trading are not recommended for now. [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyethylene Spread and Profit - **Price and Spread**: The futures price has declined, the basis in East and South China is relatively strong, and the basis in North China has gradually recovered. The monthly spread is oscillating at a low level. The Chinese CIF price has dropped by $5 - 10. The US market has stopped falling and stabilized, with low - pressure injection molding being weak; the European LD market has recovered, and the high - pressure price in Southeast Asia is relatively high. [18][25] - **Basis/Monthly Spread**: The basis has been significantly repaired, and the North China market has returned to a slight premium. However, after the futures price rebounded, the basis could not keep up, and the monthly spread weakened again at a low level. [8] - **Import Profit**: The import window is open, the non - standard import profit is at a neutral level year - on - year, and the LD import profit is at a relatively high level this year. Overseas markets are still expected to destock at the end of the year, and imports may remain at a certain scale. [32] - **Non - standard Spread**: The production of HD film is relatively low, the supply is tight, and the non - standard spread is high. In November, it attracted some petrochemical companies to switch production, and supply pressure may be realized in the middle and late months. LD has also started to weaken month - on - month recently. [35] - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil is oscillating at a low level, naphtha is moving sideways, ethylene has rebounded after a decline, and coal prices are relatively strong. [40] - **PE Production Profit**: Overall profits are compressed, and the valuation compression in the monomer segment is the most obvious. The profit margins of MTO and ethylene - purchasing processes have slightly declined. [46] 3.2 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **New Production Capacity**: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, standard products were intensively put into production, with a nominal production capacity growth rate of 19.2% and an effective production capacity growth rate of 16.7%. Before the 2605 contract, there will be limited new capacity put into production. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei refineries. [50] - **Existing Operating Rate**: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the production capacity base increased, and the total supply increment was obvious. The operating rate is at a neutral level, and the maintenance volume is currently the same as last year. [51] - **Standard Product Supply**: The production capacity of LLD has been intensively put into operation, and the production ratio is at a neutral level. The maintenance in December is expected to be lower than that in November, and supply is expected to increase. [54] - **Maintenance Plan**: The scale of subsequent maintenance is expected to decline, and the monthly maintenance volume in Q4 is currently lower than the same period last year. [56] - **Imports and Exports**: Domestic production has increased significantly, and imports are at a low level year - on - year. In October, some shipments were delayed due to poor transportation turnover, and Iranian imports may increase in November. From December to January next year, overseas petrochemical maintenance will decrease, and supply will increase. The US inventory clearance pressure has been partially relieved, and imports will remain at a relatively high level. Standard product imports are at a low level, and LD imports are the same as last year. Imports from the US and Southeast Asia have decreased year - on - year. In October, imports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the Middle East increased slightly. [59][62][65] - **Inventory**: Supply is gradually increasing, upstream companies are actively destocking, and some downstream companies have placed orders at low prices. The inventory of standard and non - standard products at factories continues to decline, and upstream companies are actively selling at reduced prices. The middle and downstream are mainly digesting their previous inventories. [67][70] - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of the agricultural film industry has maintained a high level but has weakened this week. The operating rate of the packaging industry is the same as last year, and the enthusiasm for raw material stocking is limited in the downward market. The industry profit is at a high level, but orders are slightly lower year - on - year. The demand for PE pipes has slightly improved in Q4, and the raw material inventory is slightly lower year - on - year. Overall, downstream demand shows signs of marginal decline. [72][79][86][89]

聚丙烯：短期反弹，中期趋势仍偏弱 观点综述 1 本周PP观点：短期反弹，中期趋势仍偏弱 | | 本周国内聚丙烯产量80.68万吨，相较上周的80.83万吨减少0.15万吨，跌幅0.19%；相较去年同期的67.4万吨增加13.28万吨，涨幅19.7%。 | | --- | --- | | | 周内赛科、大港石化及巨正源等装置恢复开工，但上海石化、茂名石化等装置停车检修，聚丙烯损失量量数据窄幅走高，受此影响，产量 | | | 数据小幅下滑。 | | | 周产能利用率变化分析：本期聚丙烯平均产能利用率78.14%，环比下降0.14%；中石化产能利用率79.65%，环比下降1.59%。周内茂名 | | 供应 | 石化二线30万吨/年及上海石化三线20万吨/年等装置检修，使得中石化产能利用率下降。上海赛科25万吨/年及独山子石化老二线等装置 | | | 停车，使得聚丙烯平均产能利用率下降。 | | | 下周来看，中化泉州二线35万吨/年计划检修，东莞巨正源、天津渤化等存重启计划，计划内检修损失量预期下降。计划外检修来看， | | | 丙烷/丙烯等原料价格强势，挤占下游PP生产企业利润，聚丙烯边际装置运行压力增加，关注后 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, but the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased. The 11 - month petrochemical destocking slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The cost - side crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. Although the supply of new production capacity is added and the maintenance devices are slightly reduced, the downstream is at the end of the peak season, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and it is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and the plastic weaving orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On November 28, the changes in maintenance devices were small, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at about 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to about 28%. In November, the petrochemical destocking slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. There is new production capacity in supply, and the maintenance devices have slightly decreased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. Although the relevant departments' research work has given some boost to bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and it is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6302 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6413 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6409 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.91%. The position volume decreased by 50,595 lots to 506,658 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of PP in various regions mostly increased. The drawstring was reported at 6150 - 6480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 28, the changes in maintenance devices were small, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at about 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to about 28%. On the demand side, as of the week of November 28, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and the plastic weaving orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday was flat week - on - week at 650,000 tons, 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. In November, the petrochemical destocking slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 02 contract rose to $63/barrel, and the China CFR propylene price was flat week - on - week at $735/ton [6]