Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, has issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of around 5% in the industry's added value and a 1.5% increase in the production of ten nonferrous metals during this period [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Development - The nonferrous metals industry is expected to maintain a positive economic performance, with significant progress in the domestic development of resources such as copper, aluminum, and lithium [3]. - The production of recycled metals is projected to exceed 20 million tons, with continuous enhancement in the supply capacity of high-end products and advancements in green, low-carbon, and digital development [3]. Group 2: Resource Exploration and Utilization - A new round of mineral exploration strategies will be implemented, focusing on resources like copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and tin, aiming to achieve new breakthroughs in mineral discovery [3]. - The plan includes supporting the establishment of recycling bases for nonferrous metals and the comprehensive utilization of emerging solid waste, such as used batteries and photovoltaic components [3]. Group 3: Innovation in High-End Products - The industry will focus on innovation in high-end products to meet the demands of key sectors like new-generation information technology and electric vehicles, promoting breakthroughs in ultra-pure metals and advanced materials [4]. - The implementation of a quality engineering program will guide enterprises to enhance product quality, leading to new demand creation through high-quality supply [4]. Group 4: Upgrading Metal Consumption - The plan emphasizes the upgrade of metal consumption in sectors such as electric vehicles and aerospace, promoting the use of high-strength, corrosion-resistant aluminum and advanced copper materials [5]. - Long-term procurement agreements between upstream and downstream enterprises will be encouraged to stabilize supply chains and mitigate raw material price fluctuations [5]. Group 5: Project Construction and Resource Development - The plan aims to streamline project approvals for mineral resource development through green channels, ensuring efficient progress in project construction and expansion [6]. - A scientific layout for projects related to alumina, copper smelting, and lithium carbonate will be established to avoid redundant low-level construction and enhance investment effectiveness [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments have issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Nonferrous Metal Industry (2025-2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of around 5% in the industry's added value and a 1.5% increase in the production of ten nonferrous metals during this period [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Development - The nonferrous metal industry is expected to maintain a positive economic performance, with significant progress in the domestic resource development of copper, aluminum, and lithium [3]. - The production of recycled metals is projected to exceed 20 million tons, with continuous enhancement in the supply capacity of high-end products and advancements in green, low-carbon, and digital development [3]. Group 2: Resource Exploration and Utilization - A new round of mineral exploration strategies will be implemented, focusing on copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and tin, to achieve breakthroughs in resource investigation [3]. - The plan includes establishing recycling bases for nonferrous metals and promoting the comprehensive utilization of emerging solid waste, such as used batteries and photovoltaic components [3]. Group 3: High-End Product Innovation - The industry will focus on innovation in high-end products to meet the demands of key industries like new-generation information technology and electric vehicles, including breakthroughs in ultra-pure metals and advanced materials [4]. - The implementation of a quality engineering program aims to enhance product quality and create new demand through high-quality supply [4]. Group 4: Consumption Upgrade - The plan emphasizes upgrading the consumption of bulk metals, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and aerospace, by promoting high-strength and corrosion-resistant aluminum materials [5]. - Long-term procurement agreements between upstream and downstream enterprises are encouraged to stabilize supply chains and mitigate raw material price fluctuations [5]. Group 5: Project Construction and Management - The plan outlines measures to expedite the approval and construction of mineral resource development projects, ensuring efficient resource allocation and avoiding redundant low-level construction [6]. - A scientific layout for projects related to alumina, copper smelting, and lithium carbonate is emphasized to enhance investment precision and effectiveness [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, has released a plan titled "Nonferrous Metal Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aimed at accelerating the application of high-end products in emerging industries such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, low-altitude economy, humanoid robots, and artificial intelligence [1] Group 1 - The plan emphasizes the validation of high-purity gallium, tungsten carbide, and all-solid-state battery materials for high-end product applications [1] - It promotes innovation in frontier materials such as superconducting materials, liquid metals, and high-entropy alloys [1] - The initiative encourages downstream user enterprises and research institutions to open application scenarios and create typical case studies to cultivate emerging markets [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting forecasts the market development status and competitive landscape of the non-ferrous metals industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-September 2025, the market price of zinc ingot (0) is projected to be 22,152.9 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.42% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1] - The highest price recorded in the past five years for zinc ingot (0) was 25,340 yuan/ton in mid-September 2022 [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate cut was implemented, market sentiment turned weak, and copper prices returned to a volatile trend. The high inventory of US copper indicates insufficient medium - term demand, while the end of the off - season for Shanghai copper suggests that spot demand is expected to gradually improve. Technically, after the positive impact of the interest rate cut fades, the market sentiment declines, and copper prices may show a short - term volatile trend [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Sentiment and Price Movements - On September 14, China and the US held talks on economic and trade issues in Madrid. With the Fed's imminent interest rate cut, market sentiment was generally optimistic at first, but then declined. The US dollar rebounded slightly on Friday, and most non - ferrous metals fell in the night session after a sharp rise on Friday. After China's September LPR remained unchanged and no new policies were announced at the financial system press conference, market optimism declined. The RMB rose slightly and the US dollar fell slightly, causing non - ferrous metals to rise and then fall. Shanghai copper rose, London copper fell, international copper rose, and domestic spot copper rose [1] Price and Basis Data - Today, Shanghai copper closed at 80,160, and the spot price was 80,310. The spot was at a premium of 150 points over the futures. The spot basis premium dropped to 60 points, and spot trading improved. The LME spot discount narrowed slightly to - 65 US dollars this week, and the external spot demand was average. The US copper inventory continued to rise significantly this week, the London copper inventory decreased, and the Shanghai copper inventory increased, with general spot demand. The RMB exchange rate fell slightly this week, and the Yangshan copper premium rose to 59.5 US dollars, indicating improved domestic spot demand before the holiday. The London - Shanghai ratio of copper prices dropped to 8.01, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper decreased significantly to 119 points, with the external price ratio slightly higher than the domestic one [1] Technical Analysis - Today, London copper fell slightly and traded around 9,980 US dollars. Shanghai copper rose slightly after rising and then falling, closing at 80,160, with a neutral technical pattern. The trading volume of Shanghai copper increased slightly while the open interest decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [2] Market Indicator Monitoring - From September 16th to 22nd, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated between 7.1019 - 7.1191, the spot premium/discount (yuan/ton) ranged from 80 - 470, the Yangshan copper premium (US dollars/ton) increased from 53.5 to 59.5, the LME copper - futures - spot spread was between - 59 and - 71, and the main contract London - Shanghai ratio fluctuated between 7.97 - 8.09 [3]

库存方面：截至2025-09-23，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.70万吨，较上期变化-0.15万吨。截止2025-09-23，LME 锌库存为45775吨，较上一交易日变化-1050吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-24 国内过剩压制下锌价难有明显反弹 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为45.99美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日-70元/吨至21880元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-55元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-70元/吨至21880元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-70元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日-70元/吨至21880元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-55元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-23沪锌主力合约开于22080元/吨，收于21845元/吨，较前一交易日-150元/吨，全天交易日成交 125331手，全天交易日持仓140372手，日内价格最高点达到22105元/吨，最低点达到21820元/吨。 市场分析 现货市场方面，节前备货叠加价格走低，下游接货略有好转，但现货贴水修复表现平平，国内高供给对价格形成 压制。国内外走势依旧偏离，海外库存持续去库，升水走高，仓单风险 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Fed's monetary policy easing is less than market expectations, cooling the sentiment. For copper, overseas copper mines have some disturbances, and the domestic downstream is in the traditional peak season, with limited supply surplus pressure. Short - term copper prices may turn to a volatile trend [4]. - Aluminium prices were affected by the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, with long - position profit - taking. The downstream is in the traditional consumption peak season, the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic aluminium ingots is not large, and the support for aluminium prices remains relatively strong. Short - term aluminium prices may be volatile [7]. - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the monetary policy statement was less dovish than expected, putting short - term pressure on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. For lead, the short - term supply and demand situation is good, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. - For zinc, the zinc concentrate TC increase may slow down, and the degree of zinc ore surplus will ease. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in the inventory accumulation trend. It is expected that the short - term zinc price will run weakly [11]. - For tin, the short - term supply decline is obvious, and the demand side improves marginally. It is expected that tin prices will be mainly volatile [13]. - For nickel, the short - term nickel price may be affected by inventory pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, it has certain support. It is recommended to go long on dips [16]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply and demand are booming during the lithium - battery peak season, and the inventory continues to improve. It is expected that lithium prices will be mainly volatile [19]. - For alumina, the short - term ore price has support, but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. - For stainless steel, the futures market is under pressure, and the Fed's interest rate cut has limited immediate boosting effect. It is expected that stainless steel prices will remain volatile [26]. - For cast aluminium alloy, the downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that the short - term price will continue to run at a high level [29]. Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - LME copper closed down 0.28% at $9946/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79700 yuan/ton. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market sentiment was cautious. LME copper inventory decreased by 900 to 148875 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons [3]. Strategy - The Fed's monetary policy is less loose than expected, and overseas copper mines have some disturbances. The domestic downstream is in the traditional peak season, and the short - term copper price may turn to a volatile trend [4]. Aluminium Market Information - LME aluminium closed up 0.58% at $2705/ton, and SHFE aluminium's main contract closed at 20800 yuan/ton. The Fed's stance was less dovish than expected, leading to long - position profit - taking. The SHFE aluminium weighted contract's open interest decreased by 5.4 to 53.5 million hands, and the social inventory of aluminium ingots increased slightly [6]. Strategy - The downstream is in the traditional consumption peak season, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic aluminium ingots is not large. The support for aluminium prices remains relatively strong, and SHFE aluminium should focus on the 20700 - point support [7]. Lead Market Information - SHFE lead index closed up 0.30% at 17157 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 5.96 million tons, and the LME lead inventory was 22.54 million tons [8]. Strategy - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the monetary policy statement was less dovish than expected, putting short - term pressure on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The short - term supply and demand situation of lead is good, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. Zinc Market Information - SHFE zinc index closed down 1.08% at 22051 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in the inventory accumulation trend, and the LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decrease [10]. Strategy - The zinc concentrate TC increase may slow down, and the degree of zinc ore surplus will ease. It is expected that the short - term zinc price will run weakly [11]. Tin Market Information - SHFE tin's main contract fell 1.26% to 267840 yuan/ton. The supply decline is obvious, and the demand side is improving marginally. The domestic tin ingot social inventory increased slightly [12]. Strategy - The short - term supply decline is obvious, and the demand side improves marginally. It is expected that tin prices will be mainly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. Nickel Market Information - SHFE nickel's main contract fell 0.70 to 120800 yuan/ton. The spot market transaction did not improve significantly. The cost side has limited downward space, and the demand for nickel - iron is supported [14]. Strategy - The short - term nickel price may be affected by inventory pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, it has certain support. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the short - term price range of SHFE nickel's main contract at 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel's 3M contract at 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index was stable, and the LC2511 contract closed down 1.03%. The domestic production reached a record high, and the inventory decreased slightly, with tight available spot [18]. Strategy - The supply and demand are booming during the lithium - battery peak season, and the inventory continues to improve. The bottom support of lithium carbonate is rising. The lithium price is likely to be volatile, and it is recommended to closely monitor industry information and market sentiment [19]. Alumina Market Information - The alumina index fell 0.2% to 2932 yuan/ton, and the import window was open. The futures inventory decreased [21]. Strategy - The short - term ore price has support, but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of the domestic main contract AO2601 at 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12875 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The social inventory decreased, and the raw material prices were stable [25]. Strategy - The futures market is under pressure, and the Fed's interest rate cut has limited immediate boosting effect. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will remain volatile [26]. Cast Aluminium Alloy Market Information - The AD2511 contract fell 0.73% to 20285 yuan/ton, and the domestic mainstream area's inventory increased [28]. Strategy - The downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that the short - term price will continue to run at a high level [29].

Report Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Overall, influenced by factors such as the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the weakening dollar index, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the seasonal characteristics of the industry, most non - ferrous metals are expected to show a short - term strong or oscillating upward trend, but each metal has its own influencing factors and characteristics [2][4][6]. Summary by Metal Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated upward, with LME copper rising 1.24% to $10189/ton and SHFE copper settling at 81380 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased [2]. - Supply: Overseas copper mines face certain disruptions, and domestic supply surplus pressure is not significant [2]. - Demand: Downstream procurement sentiment weakened, and the traditional peak season is ongoing [2]. - Price Outlook: Expected to oscillate strongly, with the SHFE copper main contract running in the range of 80600 - 82000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 10050 - 10300 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded, with LME aluminum rising 0.13% to $2704/ton and SHFE aluminum settling at 21060 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased [4]. - Supply: Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is expected to continue to decline [4]. - Demand: Downstream is in the traditional peak season, and aluminum exports are resilient [4]. - Price Outlook: Expected to continue to strengthen, with the SHFE aluminum main contract running in the range of 20960 - 21200 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2660 - 2730 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - Lead prices broke through the oscillation range and trended upward. SHFE lead index rose 0.76% to 17173 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2014/ton [6]. - Supply: Lead concentrate inventory accumulates slowly, and the supply of raw materials remains tight [6]. - Demand: Downstream battery inventory decreased, and the operating rate improved marginally [6]. - Price Outlook: Expected to be strong in the short term [6]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index fell slightly by 0.01% to 22316 yuan/ton, while LME zinc 3S rose to $2960/ton. Domestic social inventory increased [7][8]. - Supply: Zinc concentrate inventory increased, and the processing fee showed differentiation [8]. - Demand: The industry data is strengthening marginally [9]. - Price Outlook: Expected to be strong in the short term [9]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated. Supply decreased significantly, and demand improved marginally [10]. - Supply: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and the output of domestic refined tin is expected to decline by 29.89% in September [10]. - Demand: New energy and AI sectors are booming, and traditional consumption is gradually improving [10]. - Price Outlook: Expected to oscillate strongly [10]. Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated, and the spot market transaction was not significantly improved [11]. - Supply: The supply of nickel iron increased limitedly, and the cost of refined nickel was under pressure [11]. - Demand: The demand for nickel iron from stainless steel mills is expected to increase [11]. - Price Outlook: In the short term, the price may decline further, but in the long term, it is supported by policies and has limited downside space. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the SHFE nickel main contract running in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [11]. Carbonate Lithium - The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased. The demand expectation is optimistic, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. The reference range for the GZCE carbonate lithium 2511 contract is 71000 - 74600 yuan/ton [13]. Alumina - The alumina index rose 0.69% to 2935 yuan/ton. The supply is in an over - capacity pattern, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the domestic main contract AO2601 running in the range of 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract rose 0.93% to 13070 yuan/ton, and social inventory decreased. The raw material price increased, and it is recommended to be bullish on stainless steel [17][18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The AD2511 contract fell 0.48% to 20545 yuan/ton, and inventory increased slightly. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to remain high, with the AD2511 contract running in the range of 20450 - 20650 yuan/ton [20].

| | | 本周铜价区间上升走强。美国8月CPI及核心CPI录得增长，但增幅略符合市场预期，而美国当周初请失业金人数大幅增加，8月PPI公布值亦 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 远低于预期，美联储9月降息预期愈发强烈，美元走弱利好铜价。国内，随着旺季的来临，市场仍维持刚需采买，但整体需求有所提升；供 | | | | 高位震荡趋强 | 应端随着高检修期的到来，市场有逐步收紧预期；近期低价进口铜仍带来影响，市场升水依然承压；国内社会库存平稳，LME铜库存继续下 | 逢低持多 | | 铜 | 79500-82500 | 滑且现货贴水较此前收窄。近期市场畏高情绪持续升温，消费难有明显好转，金九消费成色有待验证，不过国内消费复苏的乐观前景叠加9 | 滚动交易 | | | | 月美联储降息的预期，铜价仍有望维持偏强走势。技术面看，伦铜重回万元大关，或有望测试前高，沪铜主力合约仓量双增，整体保持高 | | | | | 位偏强震荡，短期或测试82500关口。 | | | | 高位突破上行 | 几内亚散货矿主流成交价格环比持平于75美元/干吨。几内亚雨季到来，铝土矿开采和运输受到影响，铝 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals. With the Fed's high expectation of interest rate cuts, the non - ferrous metals sector has a positive atmosphere. Different metals show different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, inventory changes, and macro - economic factors. Some metals are expected to be strong, while others may face risks or show a range - bound pattern [2][4][5]. Summary by Metal Copper - Market performance: Domestic equity markets strengthened, US inflation data was slightly better than expected, and employment data was weak. Copper prices oscillated upwards. LME copper closed up 0.45% at $10,057/ton, and the main SHFE copper contract closed at 80,490 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory and basis: LME copper inventory decreased by 875 tons to 154,175 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants dropped to 13.5%, and Cash/3M was at a discount of $61.5/ton. In China, electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 0.3 tons, bonded - area inventory declined slightly, SHFE copper warrants increased by 0.1 to 2.0 tons. Shanghai spot premium was 85 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's inventory declined with a reduced spot premium [2]. - Outlook: US employment data was weaker than expected, and the market expected the Fed's dovish stance. Overseas copper mine supply had some disruptions, and domestic copper production decreased marginally. Although consumption was weak, copper prices were expected to remain strong. The reference range for the main SHFE copper contract was 79,600 - 81,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M was $9,920 - 10,150/ton [2]. Aluminum - Market performance: With the decline of domestic aluminum ingot social inventory, the strengthening of the equity market, and the weakening of the US dollar, aluminum prices were strong. LME aluminum closed up 2.17% at $2,679/ton, and the main SHFE aluminum contract closed at 21,005 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory and basis: SHFE aluminum weighted - contract open interest increased by 2.7 to 569,000 lots, and futures warrants increased by 0.1 to 66,000 tons. Domestic mainstream consumption - area aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 tons to 473,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.2 tons to 132,500 tons. Aluminum rod processing fees were lowered, and the market's shipping rhythm slowed down. The spot in East China was at par with futures, and downstream buying sentiment increased [4]. - Outlook: The macro - sentiment was generally positive. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the resilience of aluminum product exports provided strong support, while weak domestic terminal demand limited the upside. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and inventory trends. The reference range for the domestic main contract was 20,800 - 21,200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M was $2,640 - 2,700/ton [4]. Lead - Market performance: The SHFE lead index closed up 0.57% at 16,900 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose by $14.5 to $1,991.5/ton [5]. - Inventory and basis: SHFE lead futures inventory was 59,700 tons, and LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 62,800 tons. The lead industry was in a situation of weak supply and demand, with raw material shortages restricting smelter production, and downstream consumption being weaker than in previous years [5]. - Outlook: With high Fed interest - rate cut expectations, there was some support for lead prices. However, if the commodity sentiment weakened and secondary smelting recovered, lead prices faced significant downside risks [5]. Zinc - Market performance: The SHFE zinc index closed up 0.19% at 22,253 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose by $20 to $2,891/ton [7]. - Inventory and basis: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 44,900 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 50,800 tons. Domestic social inventory increased to 154,200 tons. Zinc ore and zinc ingots remained in surplus, with inventory accumulation. The LME market had low warrants after long - term destocking, and the contango widened. The pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets intensified, and the SHFE - LME ratio declined rapidly [7]. - Outlook: With high Fed interest - rate cut expectations, although some institutions and foreign investors were bearish on zinc, the short - term downside was limited, and zinc prices were expected to oscillate at a low level [7]. Tin - Market performance: Tin prices rebounded slightly on Thursday [8]. - Supply and demand: Supply was constrained as Myanmar's tin mine复产 was slow, Yunnan faced a severe shortage of tin ore, and some smelters planned maintenance in September. Demand was in the off - season, with traditional consumption areas being weak, and the increase in AI - related demand being limited. Domestic tin ingot social inventory increased slightly last week [8]. - Outlook: Despite weak off - season demand, the significant short - term supply decline was expected to keep tin prices oscillating in the short term [8]. Nickel - Market performance: Nickel prices oscillated on Thursday [10]. - Market factors: The weak US initial jobless claims data strengthened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Nickel - iron prices were expected to remain stable and slightly strong in the short term due to improved but still low iron - mill profits and the expected increase in stainless - steel production in August and September. The supply of intermediate products was tight, and demand provided some support [10]. - Outlook: The short - term macro - atmosphere was positive, and the long - term support from US easing expectations and domestic policies was expected. It was recommended to buy on dips. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract this week was 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M was $14,500 - 16,500/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index remained unchanged at 71,237 yuan. The LC2511 contract closed at 71,000 yuan, up 0.40% [12]. - Supply and demand: This week, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.8% to 19,963 tons, and inventory decreased by 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons. With the peak season approaching, there was a demand for spot stocking [12]. - Outlook: From September to October, domestic lithium carbonate was expected to continue destocking, and there might be structural opportunities in the far - month contracts. The reference range for the GFE lithium carbonate 2511 contract was 68,600 - 72,500 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - Market performance: The alumina index rose by 0.41% to 2,946 yuan/ton on September 11 [14]. - Market factors: The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the overseas FOB price also declined. The import window opened, and futures warrants increased. The supply of overseas ore was improving, and the smelting capacity was in surplus [14]. - Outlook: Short - term advice was to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 was 2,850 - 3,250 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and Fed interest - rate policies [14]. Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,870 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. Spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable, and the social inventory decreased by 3.90% [16]. - Market situation: The stainless - steel spot market oscillated narrowly, with 304 cold - rolled prices stable and 304 hot - rolled prices rising slightly due to tight supply. The overall market trading atmosphere was weak, especially for cold - rolled products [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market performance: The AD2511 contract rose by 0.61% to 20,475 yuan/ton, with increased trading volume [18]. - Market factors: The downstream was transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and there were supply disruptions in scrap aluminum, providing cost support. The exchange lowered the margin ratio, increasing market activity [18]. - Outlook: Cast aluminum alloy prices were expected to remain high in the short term [18].