Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term copper price may fluctuate strongly due to factors such as the expected Fed rate cut, tight copper raw material supply, and the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs [1]. - The short - term aluminum price may face the pressure of digesting inventory accumulation after the upward movement, supported by the relatively low domestic aluminum ingot inventory and the expected "anti - involution" policy [3]. - The short - term lead price may be difficult to fall due to the possible structural disturbances in the LME market and the narrowing supply [4]. - The short - term zinc price may be difficult to fall under the support of low LME warehouse receipts, although the medium - term industrial surplus situation remains unchanged [6]. - The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate in a certain range due to the short - term supply - demand weakness [7]. - The short - term nickel price may have a slight rebound but still has the pressure of correction as the downstream demand improvement is limited [9]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while holders can choose the entry point according to their own operations, and pay attention to industry chain information and market sentiment [11]. - For alumina, it is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels after the short - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market fades [14]. - The short - term stainless steel market is expected to be optimistic, and the price may show a strong - side fluctuating trend [16]. - The price upward space of casting aluminum alloy is relatively limited due to the weak supply - demand situation in the off - season and the large difference between futures and spot prices [18]. Summary by Metals Copper - Price: LME copper closed up 1.17% to $9840/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 79410 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 700 to 155000 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 to 2.6 million tons [1]. - Market: The domestic copper spot import loss was within 100 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper substitution advantage slightly decreased [1]. - Outlook: The short - term copper price may fluctuate strongly, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 78800 - 80000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9700 - 9900 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed up 1.41% to $2622/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20800 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.45 to 43.25 million tons [3]. - Market: The spot discount in East China narrowed, and the trading improved [3]. - Outlook: The short - term aluminum price may face inventory digestion pressure, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20700 - 20900 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2590 - 2640 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.21% to 16920 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2004.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.43 million tons [4]. - Market: The lead ore port inventory increased, and the supply narrowed slightly, while the downstream consumption pressure was large [4]. - Outlook: The short - term lead price may be difficult to fall [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.17% to 22637 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2829/ton [6]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory continued to increase to 11.92 million tons [6]. - Market: The zinc ore was in a loose situation, and the LME market had structural disturbances [6]. - Outlook: The short - term zinc price may be difficult to fall [6]. Tin - Price: On August 12, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 270280 yuan/ton, up 0.67% [7]. - Inventory: The SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 71 to 7397 tons, and LME inventory increased by 15 to 1765 tons [7]. - Market: The supply recovery expectation increased, but the short - term smelting was under raw material pressure, and the domestic consumption was weak while the overseas demand was strong [7]. - Outlook: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton for domestic and 31000 - 34000 dollars/ton for LME [7]. Nickel - Price: The price of high - nickel iron increased, and the refined nickel spot trading was still weak [9]. - Market: The short - term macro - atmosphere was positive, but the downstream demand improvement was limited [9]. - Outlook: The short - term nickel price may have a slight rebound but still face correction pressure, with the SHFE nickel main contract operating in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index increased by 2.57%, and the LC2511 contract closed up 1.88% [11]. - Market: The bullish sentiment driven by the shutdown of large domestic mines was stronger than the fundamental change, and the capital game had high uncertainty [11]. - Outlook: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders choose the entry point according to their own operations, with the LC2511 contract operating in the range of 79000 - 87000 yuan/ton [11][12]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index increased by 4.12% to 3334 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Shandong and Shanxi decreased by 5 yuan/ton [14]. - Market: The ore supply was disturbed, but the over - capacity pattern remained [14]. - Outlook: It is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels after the short - term bullish sentiment fades, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating in the range of 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 13200 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [16]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased to 110.63 million tons, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 2.82% [16]. - Market: The market was short of goods, and the sentiment of holding back goods increased [16]. - Outlook: The short - term stainless steel market is expected to be optimistic, and the price may fluctuate strongly [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract slightly increased to 20140 yuan/ton, and the domestic mainstream ADC12 average price decreased by 25 yuan/ton [18]. - Inventory: The domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased to 3.15 million tons [18]. - Market: The supply - demand was weak in the off - season, and the cost support was strong [18]. - Outlook: The price upward space is relatively limited [18].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved due to factors such as strong July auto and new - energy vehicle sales in China, possible 3 interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, and the confirmation of the meeting time between US and Russian presidents. However, the central bank's significant net currency withdrawal and the month - on - month decline in auto production and sales in July also impact the market. Overall, copper prices are in a volatile state [1]. - Technically, the short - term may be volatile, and the medium - term fundamentals are not good. There is an oversupply of copper in the US and weak spot demand during the off - season in China [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - Most non - ferrous metals rose due to improved market sentiment. Shanghai copper, international copper, and domestic spot copper rose, while London copper fell. The closing price of Shanghai copper was 79,020, and the spot price was 79,190, with a spot premium of 170 points. The spot basis premium rose slightly to 150 points, but spot trading was poor. LME spot discount widened to - 70 dollars, indicating weak foreign spot demand [1]. - The inventory of US copper and London copper increased significantly this week, and the inventory of Shanghai copper increased slightly, showing insufficient spot demand. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium decreased slightly to 43.5 dollars, indicating weak domestic spot demand. The ratio of London copper to Shanghai copper remained at 8.09, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper rose to 306 points, with the foreign exchange ratio higher than the domestic one [1]. Technical Analysis - London copper fluctuated slightly downward, trading around 9,755 dollars. Shanghai copper rose sharply, closing at 79,020, with an improved technical form. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both increased, showing strong market sentiment [2]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium (Yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (Dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - London Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Aug 5 | 7.1889 | 250 | 45.5 | - 53 | 8.09 | | Aug 6 | 7.1850 | 180 | 45.5 | - 67 | 8.15 | | Aug 7 | 7.1810 | 180 | 45.5 | - 63 | 8.10 | | Aug 8 | 7.1894 | 210 | 45.5 | - 66 | 8.09 | | Aug 11 | 7.1862 | 170 | 43.5 | - 70 | 8.09 | [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper: With expectations of a Fed rate cut, overseas risk appetite is decent, and the domestic equity market is strong. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight in the short - term, but the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs creates upward pressure. Short - term copper prices may be volatile and tend to rise. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper today is 78400 - 79600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M it is 9650 - 9850 dollars/ton [2] - Aluminum: The domestic commodity atmosphere is supported by the "anti - involution" policy, and there is an expectation of a Fed rate cut overseas. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is relatively low, and external demand is resilient, but downstream consumption is weak and trade situations are changeable. Short - term aluminum prices may be volatile. The reference range for the domestic main contract today is 20500 - 20700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M it is 2560 - 2610 dollars/ton [4] - Lead: In August, the port inventory of lead ore has increased, and the operating rate of primary lead has recovered. The raw material inventory of secondary lead remains low, and its operating rate is slowly rising. The social inventory of lead ingots has slightly decreased, and supply has slightly narrowed. However, downstream consumption pressure is high, and the operating rate of battery enterprises has dropped rapidly. It is expected that lead prices will show a weak and volatile trend [5] - Zinc: The zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, TC continues to rise, and the zinc ore supply remains loose. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to increase, smelters have high production plans, and downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement, so the domestic zinc ingot market remains in surplus. Although the mid - term industrial surplus situation remains unchanged, the short - term decline of zinc prices is difficult due to the support of low LME warehouse receipts [7] - Tin: The supply of tin is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter, but the demand is in the off - season, and the traditional consumption areas are weak. Although AI has increased some demand, it has limited impact on overall demand. The short - term supply and demand are both weak, and the room for further price increase is limited [8] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore needs time to recover, and the surplus pressure of nickel iron still exists. The short - term macro - atmosphere is positive, and the price of stainless steel has risen steadily, driving the nickel price to rise slightly, but the improvement in downstream demand is limited, and there is still pressure for price correction [10] - Lithium Carbonate: After the suspension of the lithium mine in Ningde Times, the market expects a shortage of domestic lithium carbonate supply. The contract limit - up on Monday, and the bullish sentiment is expected to continue on Tuesday. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can seize entry points according to their operations [12] - Alumina: The implementation of supply - side contraction policies needs to be observed, and the over - capacity pattern of alumina may be difficult to change. The short - term sentiment for long positions in commodities has declined, and the shortage of circulating spot goods is gradually easing. It is recommended to short at high prices according to market sentiment. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [15] - Stainless Steel: With the start of the off - peak to peak season transition, some specifications are in short supply, and the macro - atmosphere is positive. The spot and futures prices of stainless steel in August may be volatile and tend to rise [17] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is still in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although the cost side provides strong support, the upward space for prices is relatively limited due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed down 0.42% to 9726 dollars/ton, and the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 78810 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 150 to 155700 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 7.7%. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory slightly decreased, bonded area inventory slightly increased, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 0.2 to 2.3 million tons [2] - Market: The spot in Shanghai has a premium of 150 yuan/ton over the futures, and the supply is tight. In Guangdong, the inventory increased, and the spot discount to the futures narrowed to 20 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import had a loss of about 100 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference expanded to 1070 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed down 1.11% to 2586 dollars/ton, and the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20610 yuan/ton [4] - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas increased by 2.3 million tons to 58.7 million tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased by 0.45 million tons to 14.7 million tons. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 47.6 million tons [4] - Market: The spot in East China had a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the futures, and the trading was average. The domestic copper spot import had a loss of about 100 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [4] Lead - Price: The Shanghai lead index closed up 0.23% to 16885 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 11.5 to 2010 dollars/ton [5] - Inventory: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 5.87 million tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.43 million tons [5] - Market: The refined - scrap lead price difference was - 25 yuan/ton, and the import loss of lead ingots was - 769.7 yuan/ton [5] Zinc - Price: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.37% to 22598 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 23.5 to 2840 dollars/ton [7] - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continued to increase to 11.92 million tons, and the LME zinc registered warrants continued to decline [7] - Market: The zinc ore supply is loose, the domestic zinc ingot market is in surplus, and the LME market has structural disturbances [7] Tin - Supply: The mining in Myanmar's Wa State is expected to resume in the fourth quarter, and the supply of tin ore in Yunnan has improved, with the operating rate rising to 59.64% [8] - Demand: The downstream is in the off - season, traditional consumption areas are weak, and although AI has increased some demand, it has limited impact on overall demand [8] - Inventory: As of August 8, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots decreased by 383 tons to 10278 tons [8] Nickel - Ore: The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is recovering slowly, and the short - term premium remains at 24 - 25 dollars/wet ton [10] - Iron: The sentiment in the nickel - iron market has improved, but the surplus pressure still exists [10] - Price: Nickel prices fluctuated upward on Monday [10] Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index rose 11.46% to 77832 yuan, and the LC2511 contract closed up 5.25% to 81000 yuan [12] - Market: After the suspension of the lithium mine in Ningde Times, the market expects a shortage of supply, and the contract limit - up on Monday [12] Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 0.63% to 3202 yuan/ton [15] - Inventory: The futures warrants increased by 0.42 million tons to 3.04 million tons [15] - Market: The import window is closed, and it is recommended to short at high prices [15] Stainless Steel - Price: The main contract of stainless steel closed at 13225 yuan/ton, up 1.85% [17] - Inventory: The social inventory decreased to 110.63 million tons, and the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 2.82% [17] - Market: With the start of the off - peak to peak season transition, some specifications are in short supply, and prices may rise [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract closed up 0.12% to 20135 yuan/ton [19] - Inventory: The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased to 3.13 million tons [19] - Market: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand, and the upward price space is limited [19]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View No information provided. 3) Summary by Related Catalog - **Copper**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 79,150, up 620, and the SMM flat - water copper premium is 110, up 15 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The average price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20,630, down 20, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 50, with no change. The price of alumina (Shanxi) is 3240, with no change, and the average FOB price of Australian alumina is 375 dollars, with no change [1]. - **Lead**: The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot is 16,725, with no change, and the premium of SMM 1 lead ingot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 110, down 10. The average price of recycled refined lead is 16,750, with no change, and the refined - scrap price difference is - 25, with no change [1]. - **Zinc**: The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22,530, up 60, and the premium of SMM 0 zinc ingot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 30, down 20 [1]. - **Tin**: The average price of SMM 1 tin is 268,000, with no change, and the premium of SMM 1 tin to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 600, down 570. The average price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) is 256,000, with no change, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.52% [1]. - **Nickel**: The average price of 1 imported nickel is 122,100, up 950, and the average premium of 1 imported nickel to the Shanghai nickel contract is 350, with no change. The average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 123,950, up 900, and the average premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel to the Shanghai nickel contract is 2200, down 50 [1]. - **Silicon**: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 (Xinjiang) silicon is 9700, up 150, and the premium of 553 silicon spot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 840, down 195. The average price of 421 silicon (Kunming) is 10,000, the average price of polycrystalline silicon dense material is 0, the average price of granular silicon is 0, and the average price of N - type polycrystalline silicon material is 47 [1]. - **Lithium**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,500, up 2600, and the premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 6060, down 4300. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,300, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200, up 100 [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to optimize its supply-demand structure due to the "anti-involution" policy, which will lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity and improve the efficiency of resource, smelting, and demand linkages [1] - The demand side remains optimistic for long-term growth in sectors such as new energy, which will boost the medium to long-term demand growth for non-ferrous metals [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed a work plan to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metal industry, promoting structural adjustments, optimizing supply, eliminating backward production capacity, and encouraging green low-carbon technological innovation [1] Group 2 - The industrial metal sector is expected to see improved industry dynamics through capacity optimization and demand stimulation, which may lead to stabilization and recovery of metal prices, enhancing the profitability of companies with high-quality production capacity [1] - The non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index (930708), which reflects the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal industry in the Chinese A-share market, covering various metal resources such as copper, aluminum, and lead-zinc [1]

有色金属日报 2025-8-8 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 贵金属价格上涨，铜价冲高回落，昨日伦铜收跌 0.04%至 9670 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78360 元 /吨，特朗普宣布提名新的美联储理事后市场重新走强。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 125 至 156000 吨，注销仓单比例抬升至 7.1%，Cash/3M 贴水 62.6 美元/吨。国内方面，电铜社 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The electronic industry saw a net inflow of 1.846 billion yuan, significantly surpassing other sectors [1] - The A-share market experienced mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year [1] - Overall, the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets had a net outflow of 26.748 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Among the sectors with net inflows, the electronic industry led with 1.846 billion yuan, followed by non-ferrous metals (655 million yuan), transportation (336 million yuan), beauty care (196 million yuan), and retail (152 million yuan) [1] - The machinery equipment sector had the highest net outflow, totaling 5.261 billion yuan, with defense, power equipment, and computer sectors also exceeding 3 billion yuan in outflows [1] Group 3: Individual Stock Performance - Tianyu Digital Science saw a net inflow of 643 million yuan, leading individual stocks, with the company confirming it is not under investigation [2] - Shuo Beid's net inflow was 623 million yuan, with expectations of market opportunities due to the recovery of the consumer electronics market [3] - A total of 115 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with notable outflows from Zhongji Xuchuang, China Shipbuilding Industry, and others [4] Group 4: Tail-End Market Activity - At the tail end of trading, the main funds had a net inflow of 1.771 billion yuan, with the media and non-ferrous metals sectors attracting over 600 million yuan each [5] - Six stocks, including Tianyu Digital Science and Dazhu Laser, saw net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan at the tail end [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The copper market lacks a clear main line, and one should continue to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1]. - The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is mainly volatile, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy has certain tenacity relative to the aluminum price in the medium - term. Alumina is in an oversupply state and is under pressure to fluctuate [2]. - The zinc market has an outer - strong and inner - weak fundamental situation. Wait for short - allocation opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. - The Shanghai lead has limited downward space, and its rebound height depends on consumption. It is advisable to participate in short - term long positions on dips [5]. - The Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and one should actively enter short positions [6]. - The Shanghai tin is expected to be in a volatile market. Close out high - level short positions and wait and see [7]. - After the rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices, the game value decreases, and one should look for high - level short - selling positions [8]. - The industrial silicon supply is under pressure, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, with support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9]. - The polysilicon PS2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10]. Detailed Summaries by Categories Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper fluctuated and closed up near the MA60 moving average. The copper market lacks a clear main line, and one should continue to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate strongly. The spot discount in East China widened by 10 yuan to 50 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory remained flat compared to Monday, and aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.9 tons. The peak inventory may appear in August. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [2]. - Casting aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai spot price increased by 100 yuan to 19,800 yuan. The waste aluminum supply is tight, and the aluminum alloy industry profit is poor. In the medium - term, it has certain tenacity relative to the aluminum price. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity with AL [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. The anti - involution theme has led to sharp fluctuations in related varieties. The price of bauxite is firm during the overseas rainy season. Alumina is under pressure to fluctuate, but the downward space is relatively limited [2]. Zinc - The expiration date of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The expectations of domestic fiscal policy and the Fed's interest rate cut are positive. LME zinc inventory continues to decline to 89,000 tons, and SMM zinc social inventory has risen to 113,200 tons. The zinc spot import loss has widened to more than 1,600 yuan/ton. The outer market pulls the inner market up, and bulls return periodically. Wait for short - allocation opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Environmental inspections have affected the start - up of secondary lead production in Anhui. The supply of lead ingots has large regional differences. The SMM refined lead price remained flat. The average price of 1 lead has a real - time discount of 80 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The lead social inventory decreased by 0.18 tons to 71,100 tons. New orders of battery enterprises in August have improved. There are still regular maintenance plans for large primary lead smelters from late August to early September. Shanghai lead has limited downward space, and its rebound height depends on consumption. It is advisable to participate in short - term long positions on dips [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The anti - involution theme in the domestic market is coming to an end, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will accelerate its return to fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price support from the upstream has significantly weakened. Nickel iron inventory remains basically flat at 33,000 tons, pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 0.1 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall level is still high. Pay attention to the signs of the end of inventory reduction. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and one should actively enter short positions [6]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with a decrease in positions during the session, and it is expected to be in a volatile market. Overseas tin prices are supported by low visible inventory and the decline in Indonesia's production in the first half of the year. In China, one should pay attention to the changes in high social inventory under the game between the maintenance plans of large factories and weak consumption. Close out high - level short positions and wait and see [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with increased trading volume, and market trading contracted. After the repeated price fluctuations, the futures and spot markets were unlocked, and a large amount of circulating goods began to enter the market. The downstream inquiry behavior was active, and the spot market trading improved. The total market inventory slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of cargo rights is obvious. The downstream increased the replenishment efforts during the price correction. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 745 US dollars, which clearly follows the decline of lithium carbonate prices. The smelting output decreased by 8% week - on - week. After the rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices, the game value decreases, and one should look for high - level short - selling positions [8]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly up, and the spot manufacturers' quotations remained stable. On the supply side, according to SMM, the expected output of industrial silicon in August will increase by about 21,700 - 31,700 tons month - on - month. Sichuan and Yunnan continue to increase the start - up rate, and large factories in Xinjiang also have复产 plans. The downstream polysilicon is expected to have an incremental demand of about 11,800 - 12,100 tons, while the large organic silicon accident factory is still in the process of resuming production, and the expected demand increase is not large. Therefore, the industrial silicon supply is under pressure. Currently, the futures price has corrected significantly, and affected by the expected supply policy of Xinjiang, it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, with support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly down, and the trading sentiment declined marginally. The average price of SMM re - feed material remained stable at 47,000 yuan/ton. The price and inventory transmission in the component link still have blockages, and the spot price increase of polysilicon is expected to be slow. Under the pattern of futures premium, the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 70 lots, but the total scale is still at a low level relative to the positions. The details of capacity storage have not been updated, and affected by policy regulation, the PS2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10].

| 分析师 | 职务 | 研究方向 | 从业资格证号 | 投资咨询号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 点静 | 首席分析师 | 铜、锡 | F3047773 | Z0014087 | | 刘冬博 | 高级分析师 | 铝、氧化铝、黄金 | F3062795 | Z0015311 | | 吴江 | 高级分析师 | 镇及不锈钢、白银、碳酸锂 | F3085524 | Z0016394 | | 孙芳芳 | 中级分析师 | 铝、锌 | F03111330 | Z0018905 | | 张秀睿 | 中级分析师 | 工业硅 | F03099436 | Z0021022 | 2025/8/7 12:59 企业微信截图_17545416632354.png (2702×4287) | | | | 电需要加盟 书记 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国投期货有色金属团队 | | | | 2025/8/7 | | | SMM 1#电解铜-平均价 | 涨跌 | SMM平水铜升贴水 | 涨跌 | | 制 | 78500 | 150 | 80 | 15 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices may be weak due to factors such as the US economic stagflation expectation, Trump's deadline for Russia, and the results of China - US negotiations. However, the expectation of the "Golden September" peak season will limit the decline [1]. - Alumina is in a weak and volatile state due to increased supply expectations, while electrolytic aluminum may face downward pressure on its price center due to increased production and inventory accumulation. The aluminum alloy is expected to repair the price difference in the peak season [2]. - Nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by market sentiment in the short term and show a volatile trend, with support from the price of nickel - iron and intermediate products below and demand suppression above [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fell 0.76% to $9634.5/ton, and SHFE copper fell 0.52% to 78070 yuan/ton. The US July ISM non - manufacturing index was lower than expected, triggering stagflation expectations. LME inventory increased by 14275 tons, Comex copper increased by 916 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1581 tons. Terminal orders slowed down during the off - season, and the market may be weak in early August, but the "Golden September" expectation will limit the decline [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina was weak and volatile, with AO2509 closing at 3207 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decline.沪铝 was strong and volatile, with AL2509 closing at 20525 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase. The supply of alumina is expected to increase, and the production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is rising, with potential inventory accumulation. The aluminum alloy may shift from the off - season to the peak - season price difference repair in 2511 [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.33% to $15055/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.25% to 120500 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2172 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 247 tons. Nickel ore prices declined slightly, and stainless - steel raw material prices were divided. In the short term, prices are affected by market sentiment and show a volatile trend [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 45 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 14275 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1581 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and LME inventory decreased by 1250 tons, while the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 29 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2300 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 2362 tons. The alumina inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2172 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 247 tons. The social inventory of nickel decreased by 795 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.5%, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by 130 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 793 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 4725 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price remained unchanged, and the SMM spot price increased by 1200 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 254 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 25 tons [5]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44]. 有色金属 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and has won multiple industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [47]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [47]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [48].