Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - Short-term lithium salt prices are under pressure for a phase adjustment, particularly due to limited acceptance of high prices by downstream sectors, while the long-term price center for lithium has significantly shifted upward [4] - Cobalt prices remain relatively stable due to tight supply of intermediate products and support from smelting costs, despite weak terminal demand [4] - The lithium and cobalt sectors are seen as having clear investment value, with recommendations for active positioning [9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Emotional Catalysts for Price Fluctuations - Lithium carbonate prices experienced a peak and subsequent decline, with lithium concentrate prices rising to $1980 per ton, up $100 from the previous week [14] - The market for cobalt salts is subdued, with production pressures evident and smelting plant prices increasing [14] 2. Core Data on New Energy Materials: Mixed Production Changes and Price Increases - December lithium carbonate production increased by 4% month-on-month and 42% year-on-year, while hydroxide production rose by 2% month-on-month and 30% year-on-year [25][24] - Cobalt intermediate products saw a 21.20% decrease in inventory in December, while cobalt metal inventories showed no significant reduction [62][68] 3. Lithium Salt Import and Export Data - In November, lithium carbonate exports surged by 209% month-on-month and 249% year-on-year, while imports fell by 8% month-on-month but rose by 15% year-on-year [40][41] 4. Weekly Data on Lithium Salts: Slight Production Increase and Inventory Decrease - Weekly production of lithium carbonate rose by 0.31%, and inventory decreased by 0.24% [52][53] 5. Downstream Material Inventory: Decrease in Phosphate Iron Lithium and Ternary Material Inventory - Phosphate iron lithium inventory decreased by 0.21%, and ternary material inventory decreased by 0.95% [59][60] 6. Price Trends of New Energy Metal Materials: Most Prices Increased - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 20.11%, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 20.42% [71][72]

Group 1 - The rapid development of AI is driving the non-ferrous metals industry from a traditional cycle to a new growth era, with expectations for a strong performance in 2025 and continued activity into 2026 [1][2] - The consensus among institutions is that the non-ferrous metals sector is likely to benefit from a bull market driven by monetary, demand, and supply factors in 2026, with a focus on the "AI leap + century change" super cycle [1][2] - Investment strategies should focus on technology and resources, with a particular emphasis on the non-ferrous sector's performance in 2026, supported by factors such as the onset of a Federal Reserve easing cycle and the rise of resource nationalism amid de-globalization [1][2] Group 2 - The global environment is favorable for non-ferrous resources due to a long-term interest rate decline, and 2026 marks the beginning of China's "14th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to bring continued policy support [2] - Supply constraints for global resources are becoming more pronounced, driven by the spread of resource nationalism, which may significantly increase the cost of acquiring upstream resources and lead to heightened safety stock levels in demand countries [2] - Emerging demand in new sectors is expected to resonate with supply constraints, with these sectors showing a higher price acceptance for commodities than previously anticipated [2] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metals sector encompasses numerous sub-sectors, and utilizing professional public fund research teams to invest in the super cycle may become essential [3] - The manager of the Hui'an Quantitative Pioneer Mixed Fund, Yang Kunhe, has a unique background combining industry and finance, which informs his research-driven investment approach [3] - As of the end of 2025, the Hui'an Quantitative Pioneer Mixed A fund achieved a 67.94% annual return, ranking in the top third among comparable equity mixed funds over the past three years [3] Group 4 - Investors are advised to temper expectations for the non-ferrous sector in 2026, as short-term volatility and corrections are likely, despite the overall sector being in a long-term cycle [4] - The investment logic for non-ferrous metals should not be confined to historical strong cycles but should be viewed in the context of the current era [4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.33% on January 15, with 11 sectors experiencing gains, led by the electronics and basic chemicals sectors, which rose by 1.67% and 1.40% respectively [1] - The comprehensive and defense industries had the largest declines, falling by 3.35% and 2.80% respectively, with the comprehensive sector being the worst performer of the day [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net outflow of capital from the two markets reached 62.864 billion yuan, with six sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The electronics sector had the highest net inflow of capital, totaling 12.083 billion yuan, while the non-ferrous metals sector also saw a positive inflow of 1.936 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 1.37% [1] - Conversely, 25 sectors experienced net capital outflows, with the computer sector leading with a net outflow of 18.556 billion yuan, followed by the media sector with an outflow of 10.642 billion yuan [1] Comprehensive Sector Performance - The comprehensive sector declined by 3.35% with a net capital outflow of 46.2 million yuan, consisting of 15 individual stocks, of which 6 rose and 8 fell [2] - Among the stocks in the comprehensive sector, Zongyi Co. saw the highest net inflow of 8.0068 million yuan, followed by Hongmian Co. with an inflow of 0.8030 million yuan [2] - Five stocks in the comprehensive sector experienced net outflows exceeding 10 million yuan, with Dongyangguang, Nanjing Xinbai, and Zhangzhou Development leading the outflows at 334 million yuan, 33.7502 million yuan, and 31.8966 million yuan respectively [2] Individual Stock Performance in Comprehensive Sector - The stock performance in the comprehensive sector showed significant declines for Dongyangguang (-6.76%), Nanjing Xinbai (-2.88%), and Zhangzhou Development (-2.78%) [3] - Zongyi Co. remained unchanged at 0.00% with a net inflow of 8.0068 million yuan, while Hongmian Co. had a slight decline of -0.26% with a net inflow of 0.8030 million yuan [3] - The turnover rates varied, with Sanmu Group showing a high turnover rate of 9.62% despite a decline of -4.04% [3]

Economic Performance - In November 2025, Henan's industrial production maintained strong momentum with a year-on-year growth of 8.0%, surpassing the national average by 3.2 percentage points [21][24] - The province's social retail sales reached 2691.99 billion yuan, growing by 4.4% year-on-year, which is 3.1 percentage points higher than the national average [22][24] - Fixed asset investment in Henan increased by 4.3% year-on-year, outperforming the national average by 6.9 percentage points [23][24] Market Overview - In 2025, the Henan Index rose by 44.02%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 25.61 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 26.36 percentage points [55][57] - The top three A-share performers in Henan were Shijia Photon (442.55%), Litong Technology (217.20%), and Guojin Precision (212.43%) [60] - The top three H-share performers were Lingbao Gold (527.26%), Weiye Holdings (407.63%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (281.05%) [60] Company Listings - As of the end of 2025, Henan had a total of 138 listed companies, including 113 A-shares and 31 H-shares, maintaining its rankings at 12th and 9th nationally [65] - In 2025, only one new company was added to the listings in Henan, which was Aerospace Hongtu, migrating from Beijing to Hebi [65] - There were no IPOs completed in Henan in 2025, with only Shenglong Co. passing the review and awaiting issuance [65] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on three key themes for investment in 2026: the integration of the real economy and digital economy, strategic mergers and acquisitions driven by state-owned enterprise reforms, and companies related to the health and elderly care industries [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper first declined and then rose, while domestic copper fluctuated widely. The import of refined copper in China remained at a loss. The US economy showed signs of improvement, with retail sales and housing sales data being positive. LME, Comex, SHFE, and BC copper inventories all increased. High copper prices led to more cautious downstream procurement, and the export window gradually opened, which may be beneficial for export demand in Q1. The US Supreme Court's non - decision on the Trump tariff policy case briefly alleviated market concerns. At present, there are signs of weakening fundamentals under high copper prices, but market sentiment remains strong. A prudent and optimistic view is recommended [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The price of SMM alumina declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Alumina plants have high ore reserves, with low short - term premium procurement sentiment and decreasing costs. Alumina production continued to increase after environmental control ended, and with imports, inventories at manufacturers and downstream continued to accumulate. The logic of spot prices converging to futures prices continued. The profit from Xinjiang's warehouse delivery may put pressure on the market. After the end of environmental control and the cancellation of export tax rebates, photovoltaic enterprises rushed to export, and the start - up of the processing end is expected to remain resilient, slightly alleviating the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation. The macro - micro divergence is gradually narrowing, and the over - heating boost is being rationally corrected. Aluminum prices continue to be high, and the spot discount continues to narrow [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 6.73% and Shanghai nickel rose 5.62%. LME and SHFE inventories increased. The Indonesian government plans to reduce the nickel ore production target in 2026. As prices rise rapidly, product prices in all links of the industrial chain have strengthened, and the production of primary nickel has increased significantly. The tightening of Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy may lead to a global primary nickel supply - demand gap, stimulating nickel prices to strengthen. Short - term attention is recommended to the opportunity of going long near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper first declined and then rose, with domestic wide - range fluctuations. The import of refined copper in China was at a loss. US economic data was positive, and copper inventories in multiple markets increased. High copper prices made downstream procurement cautious, and the export window opened. The non - decision on the tariff policy case alleviated concerns. Fundamentals are weakening under high prices, but market sentiment is strong [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. Alumina prices declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Ore reserves are high, costs are decreasing, and inventories are accumulating. The end of environmental control and export - related policies affect the market, and the macro - micro divergence is narrowing [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME and Shanghai nickel prices rose significantly. Inventories increased. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production. The industrial chain product prices strengthened, and the tightening of the quota policy may cause a supply - demand gap [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On January 14, 2026, the price of flat - water copper increased by 1360 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the premium increased by 35 yuan/ton. The price of scrap copper and the refined - scrap price difference both increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE and COMEX inventories increased. The social inventory increased by 20,000 tons. The active contract's import loss decreased [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the prices of related lead products also changed slightly. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE inventory increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: On January 14, 2026, the prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot discount widened. The prices of raw materials such as alumina and pre - baked anodes changed slightly. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE inventory and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the social inventory of alumina decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1250 yuan/ton. The prices of some nickel - related products remained stable, while the prices of some new - energy nickel products decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE nickel inventory and social inventory increased, and stainless - steel inventory decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 1.2%. The prices of related zinc products all increased. The weekly TC remained unchanged. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 4.5%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The prices of related tin products increased. SHFE inventory decreased, and the registered warehouse receipt increased [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of the spot premium of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [7][8][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the near - far month spread of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 are presented [13][15][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of the LME inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 are shown [19][21][23]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of the SHFE inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 are provided [25][27][29]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of the social inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 are presented [31][33][35]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 are shown [38][40][42]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [45]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia. An analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant industry awards, focuses on the domestic non - ferrous industry and new - energy industry chain, and provides in - depth reports and policy interpretations [45]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK. An analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. He has won relevant industry awards, focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, and serves many leading new - energy enterprises [46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400), which has seen a 2.51% increase, marking five consecutive days of gains, with a trading volume of 6.65 billion yuan [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past eight days, indicating strong investor interest [2] - The recent surge in prices for precious metals, including silver and gold, as well as base metals like tin and copper, reflects a bullish market sentiment, with silver breaking through $91/ounce and gold approaching $4640/ounce [2] Group 2 - The lithium industry is expected to see a supply growth slowdown, with 2026 potentially marking a turning point, while energy storage demand is anticipated to become a second growth driver [3] - The Congolese government's implementation of cobalt export quotas and stricter approvals for Indonesian nickel mines are expected to tighten supply, supporting higher cobalt prices and stabilizing nickel prices [3] - The non-ferrous metal index closely tracks the performance of 50 listed companies in the non-ferrous metal and non-metal materials sectors, with the top ten weighted stocks including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Ganfeng Lithium [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Despite high prices suppressing consumption and inventory accumulation pressure, due to tight mine supply and strong LME spot, copper prices are well - supported and expected to oscillate at high levels. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 102,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 13,000 - 13,600 dollars/ton [3]. - **Aluminum**: With domestic inventory accumulation pressure, but supported by low overseas inventory, strong spot, stable downstream start - up, and export resilience, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 24,300 - 25,000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3,150 - 3,220 dollars/ton [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by strong cost and supply disruptions, but with average demand. If prices remain stable in the short - term, they may strengthen further [8]. - **Lead**: The lead price is near the upper limit of the long - term oscillation range, with increased contradictions between macro and industrial funds. It is expected to oscillate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment [11]. - **Zinc**: Although the zinc industry situation has not improved significantly, it has significant room to catch up compared to copper and aluminum. It is expected to oscillate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment [12]. - **Tin**: Despite weak demand and expected supply improvement, with low downstream inventory, prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 400,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 52,000 - 56,000 dollars/ton [14]. - **Nickel**: With large excess pressure and inventory increase constraining price rise, but supported by domestic liquidity and Indonesian policies, it is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 16,500 - 19,000 dollars/ton [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: After a continuous rise, there is a risk of a significant correction. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The reference range for the GZEE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 156,000 - 166,000 yuan/ton [19]. - **Alumina**: With expected decline in ore prices and over - capacity in the smelting end, it is recommended to wait and see. It may be possible to short near - month contracts at high prices. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton [22]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, low supply, and inventory reduction, prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. The reference range for the main contract is 13,700 - 14,900 yuan/ton [25]. 3. Summary by Category Copper - **Market Information**: LME copper 3M rose 1.09% to 13,300 dollars/ton, SHFE copper main contract reached 103,660 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 75 to 141,625 tons, SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 2.7 to 149,000 tons. The import loss of SHFE copper spot widened, and the refined - scrap copper price difference expanded [2]. - **Strategy**: The supply of copper ore remains tight, and short - term supply disruptions occur. Although high prices suppress consumption, copper prices are well - supported and expected to oscillate at high levels [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: LME aluminum fell 0.2% to 3,189 dollars/ton, SHFE aluminum main contract reached 24,665 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 0.5 to 766,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 3.3 to 134,000 tons. Domestic and LME aluminum inventories changed, and the spot discount expanded [4]. - **Strategy**: With domestic inventory accumulation pressure, but supported by overseas factors, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.93% to 23,380 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions decreased to 27,100 lots, and the trading volume was 22,000 lots. The inventory decreased by 0.03 to 43,600 tons [8]. - **Strategy**: Supported by cost and supply disruptions, prices may strengthen if they remain stable in the short - term [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index rose 0.12% to 17,369 yuan/ton, LME lead 3S rose 2 to 2,056 dollars/ton. There were changes in various inventory and price indicators [9]. - **Strategy**: The lead price is near the upper limit of the long - term oscillation range, with increased contradictions between macro and industrial funds, and is expected to oscillate widely [11]. Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.80% to 24,470 yuan/ton, LME zinc 3S rose 17 to 3,219.5 dollars/ton. There were changes in various inventory and price indicators [12]. - **Strategy**: Although the industry situation has not improved significantly, it has significant room to catch up compared to copper and aluminum, and is expected to oscillate widely [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: SHFE tin main contract rose 8.62% to 413,170 yuan/ton. Supply and demand situations are complex, and inventory decreased last week [13][14]. - **Strategy**: Despite weak demand and expected supply improvement, prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: SHFE nickel main contract rose 1.80% to 140,940 yuan/ton. Spot premiums were stable, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron changed [15]. - **Strategy**: With large excess pressure and inventory increase constraining price rise, but supported by policies, it is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index fell 1.63%, and the LC2605 contract price fell 3.02% [17]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, there is a risk of a significant correction. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose 0.74% to 2,792 yuan/ton. There were changes in spot prices, import profits and losses, and inventory [21]. - **Strategy**: With expected decline in ore prices and over - capacity in the smelting end, it is recommended to wait and see. It may be possible to short near - month contracts at high prices [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.98% to 13,925 yuan/ton. Spot prices and inventory changed [24][25]. - **Strategy**: Supported by cost, low supply, and inventory reduction, prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on January 15, 2026 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 15, 2026, the domestic spot price was 104360, LME price was 13292, and the ratio was 7.67; the domestic March price was 104120, LME price was 13248, and the ratio was 7.90. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.91 with a profit of - 1395.64, and the equilibrium ratio for spot export was 103.83 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24590, LME price was 3205, and the ratio was 7.67; the domestic March price was 24475, LME price was 3220, and the ratio was 5.43. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.33 with a profit of - 2101.93 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 24670, LME price was 3209, and the ratio was 7.69; the domestic March price was 24595, LME price was 3192, and the ratio was 7.80. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32 with a profit of - 2016.71 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 140850, LME price was 17561, and the ratio was 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.01 with a profit of 863.23 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17275, LME price was 2013, and the ratio was 8.56; the domestic March price was 17385, LME price was 2056, and the ratio was 11.95. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.53 with a profit of 60.24 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 15, 2026, the spreads of the next month, March, April, and May relative to the spot month were 1780, 2030, 2050, and 2260 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 612, 1123, 1642, and 2162 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 225, 275, 310, and 310 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 224, 354, 484, and 614 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 245, 300, 340, and 380 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 232, 366, 499, and 633 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 0, 70, 100, and 105 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 319, 427, and 534 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 740, 940, 1280, and 1590 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 2340, and the theoretical spread was 8388 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 1735 and 45 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were - 238 and 595 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 390 and - 165 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 47 and 189 respectively [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 40 and 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 82 and 197 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 15, 2026, for cross - variety arbitrage, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 4.25, 4.23, 5.99, 1.00, 1.41, and 0.71 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 4.03, 4.14, 6.35, 0.97, 1.53, and 0.63 respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The inflation narrative is prominent currently. The subsequent boost in consumption and the advancement of "anti - involution" remain unchanged. The future path of price recovery still depends on supply - side policies. There are signs of inflation cooling in the US in December. Attention should be paid to China's December import and export data. There is a certain divergence in domestic and foreign economic outlooks. The report suggests seizing opportunities in commodities and stock index futures, and recommends buying futures of stock indices, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [1][2][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Central Economic Work Conference in December emphasized boosting consumption and addressing "involution - style" competition. The 2026 People's Bank of China work conference focused on promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery through monetary policy tools. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Venezuela are rising, and the global competition for minerals and energy resources is intensifying. The Fed's third - in - command stated that there is no strong pressure to change interest rates. CME will adjust the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts [1] Economic Data Comparison - Overseas economic sentiment has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded, with exports increasing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9% year - on - year in US dollars. China's November economic data was under pressure, but the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December were better than expected. The US December ISM manufacturing index declined slightly and has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months. The US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, and the unemployment rate remained high. The US December CPI was in line with expectations, and the core CPI hit a four - year low [2] Commodity Analysis - Currently, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty, and look for opportunities in low - valued commodities. The long - term supply shortage in the non - ferrous metals sector persists, with aluminum and nickel being preferred within the sector. Pay attention to short - term risks in the new energy sector. The LME copper inventory has dropped to a six - month low. In the energy sector, the US plans to "distribute" Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower oil prices. In the chemical sector, there is potential for "anti - involution" in methanol and PTA. For agricultural products, monitor weather forecasts and short - term pig diseases. There are opportunities to buy precious metals on dips [3] Strategy - Buy stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [4] Important News - Trump will interview Rick Rieder for the Fed chair position on the 15th, and Rieder supports lowering the US benchmark interest rate to 3%. The investigation of Powell has caused internal strife. The New York Fed President said the labor market is stable and inflation may peak in the first half of 2026. The US December CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and the core CPI was 2.6%. Trump pressured the US Supreme Court on tariffs and imposed a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. Japan's Prime Minister intends to dissolve the House of Representatives. CME adjusted the margin setting for precious metal contracts. The LME copper inventory dropped to a six - month low. Some commodity futures had significant price movements on January 13th [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant price increases in non-ferrous metals, particularly aluminum and precious metals, driven by global liquidity conditions, technological advancements, and geopolitical factors. Group 1: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals ETF (512400) experienced a rise of over 2% at one point, currently up 1.87%, marking a four-day consecutive increase with a turnover of 1.7% and a transaction volume of 5.04 billion yuan [1] - The domestic aluminum price reached a historic breakthrough, with the main contract price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassing 25,000 yuan per ton, setting a new record [1] - The prices of copper have also been on the rise, with copper futures exceeding 100,000 yuan per ton, indicating strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - As of January 13, the main silver contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 5.9% to 21,004 yuan per kilogram, while the main gold contract increased by 1.01% to 1,027.18 yuan per gram, both reaching historical highs [1] - The environment of global liquidity easing is supporting the prices of precious metals, with factors such as inflation and high debt levels contributing to a bullish outlook for gold prices [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - West Securities indicates that the rapid development of artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing is expected to accelerate the demand for non-ferrous metals [1][2] - Geopolitical tensions are leading major countries to elevate the strategic importance of key minerals, which may result in a revaluation of commodity prices [2] - The non-ferrous metals index, which the ETF closely tracks, includes 50 listed companies from the non-ferrous metals and non-metallic materials sectors, reflecting the overall performance of the industry [2]