记者丨周潇枭 见习记者张旭 编辑丨周上祺 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，会议分析了当前经济形势，并部署2026年经济工作。 会议提出，坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢。稳步推进制度型开放，有序扩大服务领域自主开放，优化自由贸易试验区布局范围，扎实推 进海南自由贸易港建设。推进贸易投资一体化、内外贸一体化发展。鼓励支持服务出口，积极发展数字贸易、绿色贸易。深化外商投资促进体 制机制改革。完善海外综合服务体系。推动共建"一带一路"高质量发展。推动商签更多区域和双边贸易投资协定。 图 / 21世纪经济报道 中国数实融合50人论坛智库专家洪勇向21世纪经济报道记者表示，中央经济工作会议提出的"服务领域自主开放、数字贸易、绿色贸易、内外 贸一体化、推进更多双边与区域协定"等新部署，反映的是中国开放模式从"商品贸易型开放"向"规则—制度—服务体系型开放"迭代升级的趋 势。 中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院教授、国际投资中心主任张晓涛进一步指出，中国的对外开放正在向"商品要素流动与制度型开放并重"发 展，有望推动贸易、投资、科技、教育等多领域的合作和共赢。 扎实推进海南自贸港建设 会议提出，稳步推进制度型开 ...

Group 1 - China's historic trade surplus reached $1 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, marking the first time in history that a country achieved an annual trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion, translating to a daily net gain of nearly $33 million [1] - The composition of exports has shifted significantly, with electromechanical products now accounting for over 60% of total exports, indicating a transition from low-value goods to high-tech, high-value products [3] - Despite a 19% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. and a 28.6% drop in November, China's flexible global market strategy has allowed for a diversified export approach, mitigating risks associated with reliance on a single market [4] Group 2 - The high trade surplus is accompanied by a 0.6% decline in total imports, particularly in key categories like steel, wood, and automobiles, reflecting ongoing challenges in domestic demand and economic conditions [6][7] - The surplus is partly driven by domestic economic pressures, with consumers hesitant to spend due to stagnant housing prices and slow income growth, leading to increased reliance on exports [8] - The current economic environment is characterized by deflationary pressures, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) around 0% and the Producer Price Index (PPI) declining for 37 consecutive months, raising concerns about long-term economic stability [9][12] Group 3 - The trade surplus has led to rising tensions with trading partners, particularly the EU, where significant trade imbalances have prompted calls for tariffs and other trade restrictions [10] - The reliance on external demand for economic growth is highlighted by the fact that exports account for over 10% of GDP, while domestic consumption only makes up 38% of GDP, indicating a need for structural economic adjustments [10][15] - Future opportunities may lie in domestic demand recovery, with potential for growth in consumer spending and income levels, which are crucial for a healthier economic structure [15]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-11 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《全球流动性处于何种水平？---数量 篇》 - 2025.12.8 宏观研究 出口韧性不改，中欧合作深化应具有持续性 核心观点 11 月出口增速超预期回升，预计全年出口保持较高韧性，成为经 济增长的重要贡献项。（1）从主要贸易伙伴的出口贡献看，我国对欧 盟、日本、韩国出口回升，是支撑当月出口的主要原因；对美国出口 延续弱势；对东盟出口增速因基数走高而有所回落。我们理解，我国 与欧盟经贸合作加强，或者体现了全球贸易格局调整下的贸易转移效 应，我们在前期报告中多次强调；11 月我国对日本出口增长，或因日 本错误言论，日本部分企业存在"抢进口"行为，同时日本物价高企， 我国出口日本的商品具有较为明显价格优势；11 月我国对韩国出口增 速回升，应该是我国出口商品具有价格优势。（2）从重点商品来看， 汽车、集成电路 ...

关税？ 什么关税？ 就在美国对华加征关税达到历史高点、试图遏制中国制造业的2025年，中国贸易顺差竟然首次突破了1万亿美元大关。 这个数字让美国 媒体都不得不感叹：中国交出了全球最好的成绩单。 12月8日，海关总署公布的数据显示，2025年前11个月中国货物贸易顺差达到1.08万亿美元，创下历史新纪录。 这一里程碑式的成就发生在美国关税政策持 续施压的背景下，显得尤为震撼。 2025年11月，中国对美出口额同比下降28.6%，这已经是连续第八个月下滑。 然而，中国整体出口却同比增长5.9%。 这种看似矛盾的现象背后，是中国外 贸格局的深刻变革。 当美国市场的大门逐渐关闭时，中国制造商却打开了更多新的窗口。 前11个月，中国对欧盟出口5080.48亿美元，同比增长8.1%；对东盟出口5990.34亿美 元，增长13.7%；对非洲出口更是大幅增长26.3%。 这些增长完全弥补了对美出口下降带来的损失。 出口产品结构的变化同样令人瞩目。 前11个月，中国机电产品出口占总额的60.9%，其中集成电路出口增长25.6%，汽车出口增长17.6%。 传统的"新三 样"，电动汽车、锂电池、太阳能电池板继续领跑出口增长。 中国 ...

12月8日，中国海关总署发布了一组令人震撼的数据——中国在前11个月的外贸顺差达到1.08万亿美元，这个数字是前所未有的。这一年，中国不仅打破了 自己在2024年创下的9921.6亿美元的纪录，还成为全球贸易史上第一个年顺差破万亿美元的国家。 美国政客一脸懵，日本经济学家说不清，连欧洲的马克龙都忍不住喊出"不可接受"。这笔顺差到底是怎么来的？在美国大幅提高关税、出口大幅下降的背景 下，中国是如何顶住压力、反而赚得更多的？这背后，又隐藏着哪些让人意想不到的市场布局和产业升级？ 2025年，中国出口美国的商品同比下降了29%，这在过去是不可想象的事。曾经，美国是中国最大的出口市场，对中国外贸的重要性毋庸置疑。 可这一次，中国没靠美国也能行。总顺差不仅没有下降，反而比去年上涨了21%，这个变化背后的原因，值得好好说一说。 对东盟的出口增长了8.2%，欧盟增长了14.8%，澳大利亚更是暴涨了35.8%。美国市场的"缺口"，被其他国家迅速填上了。 特别是东盟，前11个月和中国的贸易额高达6.82万亿元，已经成为中国的最大贸易伙伴。美国的排名早已跌出前两名，占比只剩8.9%。 一带一路国家的表现更是强劲，出口增速达到10 ...

Core Insights - China's foreign trade has achieved a historic milestone with a trade surplus exceeding 1 trillion USD for the first time, driven by a significant increase in exports compared to a minimal rise in imports [4][11] - The total value of China's goods trade reached 41.21 trillion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [3][4] Export and Import Dynamics - Exports amounted to 24.46 trillion RMB, growing by 6.2%, while imports were 16.75 trillion RMB, with a mere increase of 0.2% [4][5] - The export structure has shifted fundamentally, with electromechanical products accounting for 60.9% of total exports, and notable growth in integrated circuits and automobiles at 25.6% and 17.6%, respectively [4][11] - In contrast, traditional labor-intensive product exports have declined by 3.5% [4][11] Market Restructuring - ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, with a trade value of 6.82 trillion RMB, up 8.5%, while trade with the EU reached 5.37 trillion RMB, growing by 5.4% [5][11] - Trade with the US has decreased by 16.9%, now accounting for only 8.9% of total trade [5][11] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative totaled 21.33 trillion RMB, reflecting a growth of 6% [5] Role of Private Enterprises - Private enterprises have emerged as a key driver of trade surplus, with their total trade reaching 23.52 trillion RMB, a 7.1% increase, representing 57.1% of total foreign trade [5][6] - These enterprises are not only dominant in scale but also excel in innovation, with high-tech product exports reaching nearly 1 trillion RMB, including significant growth in industrial robots and high-end machine tools [5][6] Import Trends - The sluggish growth in imports, at only 0.2%, has contributed to the expanding trade surplus, aided by falling international commodity prices [7][8] - The average import price of major commodities like iron ore, crude oil, and coal has decreased by 9.4%, 12.1%, and 23.9%, respectively [7] Sustainability of Trade Surplus - Experts express cautious views on the sustainability of the large trade surplus, suggesting that expanding imports will be a crucial focus moving forward [9] - The current trade surplus is accompanied by a structural deficit in service trade, particularly in intellectual property and travel services [9][10] Future Strategies - Proposed strategies for addressing the challenges of the trade surplus include diversifying international market structures and promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade [10] - Specific measures include leveraging RCEP for regional trade and enhancing cooperation through the Belt and Road Initiative [10]

2025年12月8日，海关总署一组数据震惊全球：前11个月中国贸易顺差达1.0758万亿美元，这是人类贸 易史上从未有过的纪录。 《华尔街日报》用"里程碑"形容这一突破，要知道2024年中国全年顺差还差口气才破万亿，如今仅用11 个月就轻松超越。 更值得玩味的是，这份亮眼成绩单，是在美国关税大棒高举、全球贸易保护主义抬头的背景下实现的， 背后藏着的正是中国外贸的深层变革。 谁是新"金主"？中国朋友圈的"悄悄"巨变 还记得十年前吗？提起中国最大的贸易伙伴，所有人的答案都是同一个：美国。然而，潮水退去，我们 才发现，中国外贸的"朋友圈"早已不是旧模样。 前十一个月中，中美贸易总额同比下降了近16.9%，美国在中国外贸总额中的比重，已跌破8.9%。这意 味着什么？这意味着即便最大贸易伙伴的份额大幅缩减，中国依然能实现万亿顺差，它的韧性可见一 斑。 首先登场的是我们的老邻居东盟。它以近7万亿元的贸易总额，高达8.5%的增长速度，牢牢占据了中国 第一大贸易伙伴的位置。 接着是欧盟，5.37万亿元的贸易额，也实现了5.4%的稳健增长。 那么，美国留下的市场空白，被谁填补了？答案出乎意料，却又在情理之中。 但真正的"黑马" ...

Trade Data Overview - In November 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year[10] - Exports amounted to 2.35 trillion yuan, growing by 5.7%, while imports were 1.55 trillion yuan, up by 1.7%[10] - The trade surplus for November was 792.58 billion yuan, equivalent to 111.68 billion USD, marking a significant increase from 900.74 billion yuan in October[21] Export Performance - Exports to the EU showed a notable rebound, while exports to the US experienced a slight increase in decline[14] - The export growth rate for automobiles surged to over 50%, indicating strong performance in this sector[15] - Exports to BRICS countries, excluding South Africa, generally improved, particularly with a significant reduction in the decline of exports to Russia[11] Import Dynamics - Import growth rebounded significantly, with mechanical and electrical imports showing a marked acceleration[11] - The growth rate for major imported goods, excluding steel and iron ore, declined, indicating a mixed performance in import categories[20] Economic Implications - The overall increase in imports and exports suggests resilience in foreign trade amidst external uncertainties, particularly due to improved US-China trade negotiations[26] - The political bureau's meeting emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to enhance domestic demand and optimize supply[26] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export growth rate rebounded and turned positive in November 2025, indicating strong resilience in foreign trade. The root cause of China's exports continuously exceeding expectations lies in the high cost - effectiveness of Chinese goods, which is the result of domestic "involution" and technological progress. Although the export growth rate may slow down in December due to the high base in 2024, the high cost - effectiveness of Chinese goods will remain unchanged, and China's exports will remain high for a long time. In the bond market, with the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise [1][5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 11 - month Import and Export Data Highlights - In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of imports, exports, and trade surplus all rebounded. Exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year and 8.2% month - on - month, and the export amount reached a high level since 2021 [3][4]. 3.2 Reasons for the Rebound of Export Growth Rate in November - The negative year - on - year export growth in October was mainly due to the base dislocation in September and October 2024 and trade frictions. After the China - US talks in Kuala Lumpur and the meeting in Busan, the conclusion of trade agreements promoted the return of the export rhythm to normal. After the elimination of base disturbances, the export growth rate rebounded and turned positive in November [5]. 3.3 Analysis of Export Structure - As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of mechanical and electrical products exports was 8.0%, and that of high - tech product exports was 6.6%, showing relatively high - speed growth. In contrast, the cumulative year - on - year decrease of labor - intensive goods was 4.2%, indicating a transformation from labor - intensive to high - tech products in exports, which may reflect China's industrial transformation and upgrading [6]. 3.4 Forecast of Export Growth Rate in December - Due to the high base caused by the rush to export in December 2024 after Trump's election and the resulting increase in trade policy uncertainty, the export growth rate in December 2025 may be under pressure. However, the high cost - effectiveness of Chinese goods will not change [7]. 3.5 Market Conditions - On December 8, the long - term yield first rose and then fell, showing an "M" - shaped trend. After the Politburo meeting mentioned the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, the long - term yield quickly declined. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and the Central Economic Work Conference [8]. 3.6 Bond Market Viewpoints - In the context of the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. For stock and bond allocation, the previous views are maintained [9].

华创证券指出，11月出口增速反弹超预期（较上月高7个点）有基数的影响（5个点左右），也有需求韧 性的支撑。一是11月我国制造业PMI新出口订单大幅修复且各行业全面回升，二是出口边际增长动能有 所恢复。9—11月环比平均1.1%，与历史同期均值相近，Q3出口月度环比均值仅有0.4%（大幅低于过去 十年同期平均1.4%）。往后看，月度视角下，12月基数抬升，或带来同比读数2—3个点的调整压力。 季度视角下，领先指标显示外需环境稳健，电子链或继续助力增长。半年至一年维度下，货币宽松累积 效应驱动的稳定外需环境+机电出口景气，或支撑出口维持偏强韧性。 中原证券指出，周二A股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指低开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在3923点 附近遭遇阻力，随后股指震荡回落，盘中商业百货、电子元件、光伏设备以及医疗服务等行业表现较 好；有色金属、能源金属、贵金属以及钢铁等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅整理的运行特征。 当前国内经济宏观面处于温和修复但基础仍需巩固的状态。中长期支撑本轮A股上涨的基础并未发生转 变。在政策暖风、资金改善的合力下，市场再度向上运行的可能性正在增加。预计上证指数围绕4000点 附近蓄势 ...