Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a polyester data weekly report from Guotai Junan Futures, dated August 10, 2025 [1][2] - It covers PX, PTA, and MEG, including supply, demand, valuation, and trading strategies Group 2: PX Analysis Valuation - PX - naphtha spread strengthened to $268/ton from $241 last week, and PX - MX spread rose to $123/ton from $113 [4] - With potential new MX plants in August, the PX - MX spread may remain high - The PX futures monthly spread showed an upward trend, and the basis (foreign - domestic spread) strengthened in 2025 [19][21] Supply - China's PX operating rate was 82% (+0.9%), and Asia's was 73.6% (+0.2%) [3][45] - Domestic supply is abundant with plant restarts and load increases, while overseas supply in Japan and South Korea has a mix of restarts and maintenance Demand - PTA operating rate was 76.2% (+0.9%), expected to decline slightly next week [3][5] - PTA processing fees dropped to 170 yuan/ton, with potential unplanned production cuts or maintenance Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading, conduct 9 - 1 reverse spreads for inter - period trading, and go long on PX and short on PTA or EB for inter - commodity trading [4] Group 3: PTA Analysis Valuation - PTA spot processing fees remained around 200 - 250 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract processing fees dropped from 360 to 330 yuan/ton [5] - The basis and 9 - 1 monthly spread weakened Supply - PTA operating rate was 76.2% (+0.9%), expected to decline slightly next week [5][83] - Planned restart capacity is 470 million tons, and planned maintenance capacity is 425 million tons Demand - Bottled PET production cuts ended, but destocking was average, and load recovery is expected in late August to early September [5] - Short - fiber and filament factories' downstream profits improved slightly, but production resumption depends on terminal orders Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading, conduct range operations for 9 - 1 inter - period trading, and go long on PX and short on PTA or long on MEG and short on PTA for inter - commodity trading [5] Group 4: MEG Analysis Valuation - The single - side valuation is in a volatile market, and the monthly spread declined with limited downside space [121] - MEG's relative valuation against ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics reached a high for the year Supply - Due to the arrival of previously delayed shipments and the expected restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 90 - million - ton new plant, domestic operating rates are rising [6] - Coal - based plants' profits are still high, and the operating rate is maintained at around 75% Demand - Similar to PTA, demand recovery depends on terminal orders [6] Strategy - Conduct range operations for single - side trading, 9 - 1 monthly spread range operations from - 50 to 0, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads for inter - period trading; go long on L and short on MEG or long on MEG and short on PTA for inter - commodity trading [6] Group 5: 2025 Polyester Raw Material Production Plan - PX: Yulong Petrochemical's 300 - million - ton plant is expected to be put into operation in November [8] - PTA: Honggang Petrochemical's 250 - million - ton plant in June, Sanfangxiang's 300 - million - ton plant in August, and Xin Fengming's 300 - million - ton plant are planned [8] - MEG: Sichuan Zhengda Kai's 60 - million - ton plant was put into operation in May, Yulong Petrochemical's 80 - million - ton plant is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, and Ningxia Kunpeng's 20 - million - ton plant [8] - Polyester: Anhui Youshun's 30 - million - ton (filament), Fujian Henghai's 30 - million - ton (filament), and other plants are planned [8]

Supply and Demand - As of August 7, PTA supply has improved with the restart of 150,000 tons and 120,000 tons facilities by Taiwan Chemical, while Jiaxing Petrochemical's 220 tons facility is under scheduled maintenance. Yisheng Materials' 720,000 tons facility has restored its load, and INEOS's 235,000 tons facility is operating at reduced capacity. Overall, PTA load has recovered to 76.2%, an increase of 3.6% [3] - On the demand side, new facilities that started at the end of July and previously shut down facilities have increased production. Additionally, some factories in long and short fiber sectors have slightly increased their load, with polyester's overall load rising to approximately 88.8%, an increase of 0.7%. However, the order atmosphere for grey cloth remains weak, and the market's inventory turnover is slow, limiting overall operating rates [3] Profitability - As of August 7, PTA's spot processing fee is around 166 yuan per ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 futures is 263 yuan per ton [2] Market Outlook - Despite a recent improvement in PTA supply and demand in August, the outlook remains weak due to the commissioning of new PTA facilities by Hailun Petrochemical and a continued weak order situation at the terminal. The PTA basis is expected to operate weakly. Overall, with a weak supply-demand outlook and limited support from crude oil, the rebound potential for PTA is insufficient. However, there is still some short-term support due to the overall improvement in domestic commodity sentiment and low PTA processing fees [4] - The strategy suggests a short-term trading range for TA between 4600-4800, with a recommendation for TA1-5 to hedge against high prices and to expand PTA processing fees at low levels around 250 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PTA market saw price increases due to a rebound in the crude oil market and production cuts at some PTA plants, but the spot basis weakened due to continuous shipments from major suppliers. The ethylene glycol market maintained a strong - side oscillation, with spot prices rising slightly and the basis negotiation strengthening. The polyester market faced a complex situation, with factors such as changes in raw material prices, production and sales rates, and inventory levels affecting the market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 508.8 yuan/barrel on August 5, 2025, to 505.9 yuan/barrel on August 6, 2025, a decrease of 2.90 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC spread increased from 984.5 yuan/ton to 1047.6 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.2663 to 1.2849. PTA主力期价 increased from 4682 yuan/ton to 4724 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 4660 yuan/ton to 4680 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased from 144.6 yuan/ton to 160.0 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee rose from 161.6 yuan/ton to 174.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased from 839 to 844, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 254 to 260 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 increased from 4399 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 101.04 yuan/ton to - 97.23 yuan/ton, and MEG internal market price rose from 4463 to 4491 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 78.11%, PTA start - up rate decreased from 78.04% to 77.49%, MEG start - up rate increased from 58.81% to 59.54%, and polyester load remained at 87.09% [2]. Polyester Product Data - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F prices remained unchanged. POY, FDY, and DTY cash flows decreased by 27.0. The long - filament production and sales rate increased from 37% to 52% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6550 to 6535, the staple - fiber cash flow decreased from 171 to 129, and the short - fiber production and sales rate increased from 47% to 68% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip price increased from 5780 to 5795, the chip cash flow decreased from - 49 to - 61, and the chip production and sales rate increased from 73% to 87% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 720 - million - ton PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [2].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The commodity sentiment has weakened, the domestic PTA production capacity supply has shrunk, and the port inventory has declined. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90. The market port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. However, the PTA basis has weakened, and the market replenishment willingness has declined [2]. - Coal prices have rebounded, leading to an increase in ethylene glycol prices. The macro - sentiment has slightly weakened, and the chemical industry has followed the weakening sentiment of bulk commodities. Overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance, especially in Saudi Arabia, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. Polyester production and sales have weakened, downstream weaving profits have shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 531.3 yuan/barrel on July 31, 2025, to 527.9 yuan/barrel on August 1, 2025, a decrease of 3.40 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The PTA - SC price dropped from 947.0 yuan/ton to 907.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39.29 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.2453 to 1.2366, a decrease of 0.0087 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price dropped from 858 to 846, a decrease of 12; the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 250 to 242, a decrease of 8 [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 dropped from 4808 yuan/ton to 4744 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64.0 yuan/ton; the PTA现货价格 dropped from 4825 yuan/ton to 4750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.0 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee decreased from 189.0 yuan/ton to 173.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.4 yuan/ton; the PTA仓单数量 decreased from 29738 to 27731, a decrease of 2007 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 dropped from 4414 yuan/ton to 4405 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.0 yuan/ton; the MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (119.91) yuan/ton to (122.10) yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.2 yuan/ton; the MEG内盘 price dropped from 4503 yuan/ton to 4480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.0 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain - **PX**: The PX开工率 remained unchanged at 77.29% [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA开工率 decreased from 76.64% to 74.06%, a decrease of 2.58% [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG开工率 increased from 58.13% to 58.81%, an increase of 0.68% [2]. - **Polyester**: The polyester负荷 decreased from 86.28% to 86.15%, a decrease of 0.13% [2]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F prices remained unchanged; POY现金流, FDY现金流, and DTY现金流 increased by 72.0, and the long丝产销 decreased from 27% to 25%, a decrease of 2% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The 1.4D直纺涤短 price dropped from 6650 to 6600, a decrease of 50; the 涤短现金流 decreased from 116 to 138, an increase of 22.0; the 短纤产销 increased from 49% to 56%, an increase of 7% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The semi光切片 price dropped from 5905 to 5845, a decrease of 60.0; the 切片现金流 increased from (79) to (67), an increase of 12.0; the 切片产销 decreased from 72% to 59%, a decrease of 13% [2]. Device Maintenance - An East - China supplier's 7.2 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [3].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - PX: Supply and demand are weakening, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure. The unilateral trend is weak, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure and the roll - over of the main contract. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the PX - MX spread has also declined but remains at a high level. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase [3][4]. - PTA: Cost support is weak, and there is negative demand feedback. Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure. The unilateral trend is weak, and short positions should be held. The spot processing fee remains low, and the basis and monthly spread are both weak [5]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is weak, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive monthly spread arbitrage. The profit of coal - based MEG plants has recovered, and the production of some ethylene oxide plants will be converted to MEG in the future [6]. Summary by Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX unilateral price has dropped significantly, and the structure has gradually become flat. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the PX - MX spread has also declined but remains high. Asian gasoline cracking spreads are weak, and the toluene disproportionation spread has weakened, while the toluene blending profit has recovered. The aromatics blending economy has improved [20][23][24]. Supply and Demand - China's PX operating rate is 81.1% (+1.2%), and Asia's overall operating rate is 73.4% (+0.5%). There is no new PX maintenance in China in August, and some plants are restarting. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase. PTA device operating rate is expected to decline in August, which means reduced demand for PX [3][42]. Inventory - In July, the monthly PX inventory in Longzhong dropped to 414 tons (-24) [65]. PTA Valuation and Profit - The spot supply is increasing, the basis is in a reverse arbitrage situation, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive monthly spread arbitrage at low levels. The spot processing fee remains at a low level, and some plants have unplanned maintenance [71][82]. Supply and Demand - The PTA device operating rate remains at 75.3% (-4.4%) and is expected to continue to decline in August. Some plants have stopped production or reduced loads. PTA exports are expected to increase in July - August, and port inventories are rising, but the total inventory accumulation is lower than expected [86][92][105]. Inventory - PTA port inventories are rising, but the cumulative increase in total inventory is lower than expected [105]. MEG Valuation and Profit - The unilateral valuation is in a volatile market, the monthly spread has declined, and the downward space is limited. The relative valuation of MEG compared to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics has risen to a high level this year, and the profits of each link have significantly recovered [125][129][132]. Supply and Demand - The operating rate of MEG continues to rise. Overseas, some plants are operating at low loads or under maintenance, and imports will remain high. Domestic coal - based MEG device operating rate is 75% (+0.6%), and future loads will continue to rise [135][136]. Inventory - No relevant content provided. 2025 PX - PTA - Polyester Production Plan - PX will have a new production capacity of 300 tons from Yulong Petrochemical in the second half of the year. - PTA will have new production capacities of 600 tons from Sanfangxiang and Xin Fengming in the second half of the year. - MEG will have new production capacities of 100 tons from Yulong Petrochemical and others in the second half of the year. - Polyester will have new production capacities of 305 tons from Anhui Youshun and others throughout the year [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the prices of PX, PTA, and MEG all declined. PX load remained high, PTA short - term maintenance increased, and MEG's overseas device load was at a high level. The polyester and terminal sectors are about to end the off - season, with downstream demand expected to gradually recover. PX is expected to continue de - stocking, while PTA is in a continuous inventory accumulation stage, and MEG's port inventory is expected to accumulate [11][12][13]. - In terms of valuation, PX's current valuation is at a neutral level, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil. PTA's low inventory level and the recovery of downstream prosperity are expected to result in less upward feedback pressure, and PXN has upward support. MEG's valuation is relatively high, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - **Price Performance**: The 09 contract dropped 250 yuan to 6812 yuan last week. The spot price of CFR China decreased by 28 dollars to 846 dollars. The spot - converted basis increased by 27 yuan to 160 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 90 yuan to 22 yuan [11]. - **Supply**: China's load was 81.1%, a 1.2% week - on - week increase; Asia's load was 73.4%, a 0.5% increase. Subsequent domestic maintenance is still low, and the load remains high [11]. - **Demand**: PTA load was 72.6%, a 7.1% week - on - week decrease. In the short term, PTA maintenance increased, and the overall load will decline [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory at the end of June was 413.8 tons, a 21 - ton decrease. According to the balance sheet, inventory will continue to decline from July to August [11]. - **Valuation and Cost**: As of July 31, PXN was 247 dollars, a 32 - dollar year - on - year decrease; the naphtha crack spread increased by 11 dollars to 85 dollars. The current valuation is at a neutral level [11]. - **Summary**: PXN declined last week. Although the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is small, the current valuation is at a neutral level. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [11]. PTA - **Price Performance**: The 09 contract dropped 192 yuan to 4744 yuan last week. The spot price in East China decreased by 145 yuan to 4750 yuan. The spot basis decreased by 5 yuan to - 13 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 56 yuan to - 38 yuan [12]. - **Supply**: PTA load was 72.6%, a 7.1% week - on - week decrease. Although maintenance will increase in August, new device production will result in continuous inventory accumulation [12]. - **Demand**: Last week, polyester load was 88.1%, a 0.6% week - on - week decrease. The terminal off - season is about to end, and the pressure to reduce production has decreased [12]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 220.5 tons, a 1.6 - ton increase [12]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee increased by 1 yuan to 176 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee decreased by 28 yuan to 275 yuan/ton [12]. - **Summary**: PTA's absolute price followed PX down. The processing fee has limited room to operate, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [12]. MEG - **Price Performance**: The 09 contract dropped 140 yuan to 4405 yuan last week. The spot price in East China decreased by 102 yuan to 4480 yuan. The basis increased by 23 yuan to 73 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 36 yuan to - 34 yuan [13]. - **Supply**: Last week, EG load was 68.6%, a 0.7% week - on - week decrease. Subsequent maintenance devices will gradually decrease, and the load will gradually increase [13]. - **Demand**: Similar to PTA, polyester load decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the terminal off - season is about to end [13]. - **Inventory**: As of July 28, port inventory was 52.1 tons, a 1.2 - ton decrease; downstream factory inventory days were 13.5 days, a 0.5 - day increase. Short - term port inventory is expected to accumulate [13]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Last week, the naphtha - based profit decreased by 263 yuan to - 568 yuan/ton, and the overall valuation is moderately high [13]. - **Summary**: The fundamentals of the MEG industry are expected to weaken, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **PX**: The basis rebounded, the spread was weak, the position increased, and the trading volume decreased [31][34]. - **PTA**: The basis continued to be weak, the spread fluctuated weakly, and the position and trading volume data are provided in the report [43]. - **MEG**: The position and trading volume were at a low level, and overseas commodity price data for PX, MEG, and PTA are provided [61][70]. 3.3 PX Fundamentals - **Supply**: Device load rebounded, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in 2025 [77][75]. - **Import**: Imports remained stable in June [81]. - **Inventory**: Inventory continued to decline in June [90]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN declined, the short - process spread was strong, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated [94]. - **Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending for Oil**: Gasoline performance was weak, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread, blending relative value, South Korea's aromatic hydrocarbon inventory, and South Korea - US aromatic hydrocarbon trade data are provided [101][111][113]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - **Supply**: New production capacity was put into operation, load decreased, and exports in June were continuously low [135][139][141]. - **Inventory**: Inventory rebounded from a low level [143]. - **Profit and Valuation**: The processing fee was weak [146]. 3.5 MEG Fundamentals - **Supply**: New production capacity was put into operation, the total load was at a five - year high, and import data are provided [150][154][156]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory decreased slightly this week [158]. - **Cost**: Coal prices rebounded, and ethylene prices remained stable [170]. - **Profit**: The profit of naphtha - based MEG weakened [173]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester**: New long - filament devices were put into operation, the basis of staple fiber and bottle chips fluctuated, the start - up rate decreased, export data in June increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, long - filament inventory pressure was neutral, staple fiber inventory increased, bottle chip absolute inventory was high, and the profit of bottle chips and staple fiber was poor [188][191][194]. - **Terminal**: The start - up rate rebounded, textile enterprise orders increased and inventory decreased, raw material inventory preparation decreased, the growth rate of domestic textile and clothing demand decreased, exports were weak, and US clothing inventory was below the pre - pandemic high with marginal increase [215][222][226].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trend of commodities is driven by macro - sentiment. PTA may experience a short - term decline from high levels under the expectation of a fall in commodity sentiment due to new device production and poor terminal performance. MEG is expected to mainly follow cost fluctuations in the short term, with its cost support limited and supply pressure postponed [6]. - The cost side shows that crude oil continues to fluctuate widely, and PX is expected to run warmly in the short term. The supply side of PTA remains stable, while the total supply of MEG is expected to increase. The demand side of polyester is expected to change little, and the terminal demand is weakly declining [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **Market Review**: OPEC+ is still in the process of increasing production, and geopolitical tensions are easing, leading to a decline in international crude oil. PX prices increased slightly due to good commodity sentiment despite limited support from cost and a weakening naphtha [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Tianjin Petrochemical's maintenance led to a narrow decline in PX capacity utilization. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization was 82.81%, down 0.35% from last week, and the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization was 72.87%, down 0.28% [21]. - **Price Spread**: The PX - naphtha price spread rebounded slightly as naphtha prices weakened and commodity sentiment was good in China. As of July 25, the PX - naphtha price spread was 292.5 dollars/ton, up 30.55 dollars/ton from July 18 [22]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Driven by macro factors, PTA had a weak rebound. The supply was stable, demand shrank slightly, and the balance sheet continued to accumulate inventory. As of July 25, the PTA spot price was 4900 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 - 5 [27]. - **Capacity Utilization**: There were no significant changes in PTA devices this week, and the capacity utilization fluctuated narrowly at 80.76%, remaining flat compared to the previous period. In July, Helen Petrochemical plans to start production, and Hengli has a maintenance plan, so the PTA capacity utilization is expected to fluctuate slightly [30]. - **Processing Fee**: The PTA processing fee was significantly repaired. Although the balance sheet continued to accumulate inventory and downstream procurement enthusiasm was blocked, there was an expectation of increased maintenance at low processing fees, so the processing fee is expected to continue to be repaired at a low level next week [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In July, with the commissioning of new PTA devices and the implementation of polyester production cuts, the supply - demand of PTA turned to inventory accumulation [34]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Driven by macro and cost factors, ethylene glycol rebounded significantly. After breaking through and rising, it entered a high - level volatile trend. As of July 25, the closing price of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol was 4579 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4580 yuan/ton [40]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Some devices reduced their loads, and the ethylene glycol capacity utilization decreased slightly. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization was 59.20%, up 0.71% compared to the previous period. In July, domestic production is expected to increase, and overall supply will increase slightly [44]. - **Port Inventory**: Due to weak terminal demand, the ethylene glycol port inventory fluctuated at a low level. As of July 24, the total ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was 47.5 tons, up 1.57 tons from July 21 [46]. - **Processing Profit**: Ethylene glycol rebounded from a low level, and processing profits increased across the board. As of July 25, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - 81.9 dollars/ton, up 20.69 dollars/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 75.2 yuan/ton, up 35.73 yuan/ton from last week [51]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Side of the Industry Chain Analysis - **Capacity Utilization**: Due to large - scale production cuts, the polyester capacity utilization decreased slightly to 86.4%, down 0.29% from the previous period. It is expected that the domestic polyester supply will decline significantly next week [54]. - **Production Volume**: In July, due to the seasonal off - season and high cash - flow pressure, the polyester monthly output is expected to decline significantly [56]. - **Capacity Utilization of Different Products**: The capacity utilization of polyester products was differentiated. The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester filament was 92.09%, down 0.85% from the previous period; the average capacity utilization of polyester staple fiber was 84.78%, down 1.64% from the previous period; and the capacity utilization of fiber - grade polyester chips was 76.58%, up 0.22% from last week [61]. - **Inventory**: Due to downstream centralized replenishment, the inventory of polyester products decreased significantly [62]. - **Cash - Flow**: With the significant increase in raw material prices, the cash - flow of polyester products was compressed, and the cash - flow loss expanded [67]. - **Weaving Market**: The off - season atmosphere in the weaving market deepened, and the start - up rate continued to decline. As of July 24, the comprehensive start - up rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.59%, down 0.24% from the previous period, and the average terminal weaving order days were 6.94 days, a decrease of 0.33 days from last week [70]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: Crude oil declined, and PX prices increased slightly due to good commodity sentiment [72]. - **Supply Side**: The PTA capacity utilization remained flat, and the MEG capacity utilization increased slightly [72]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester capacity utilization decreased slightly, and the weaving industry start - up rate was low with weak terminal demand [72]. - **Inventory**: PTA inventory shifted from destocking to inventory accumulation, and the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area fluctuated [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical disturbances, expectations of peak demand season, and crude oil supply pressure are in a state of mutual restraint, causing international oil prices to fluctuate at high levels. If geopolitical risks ease later, the downward pressure on oil prices will increase. The maintenance of Tianjin Petrochemical's PX plant has led to a contraction in the weekly domestic supply, while the operating rate of downstream PTA has remained stable. Boosted by the overall strong atmosphere in the commodity market, the PX processing fee has recovered on a month - on - month basis. However, on Friday, the market sentiment significantly cooled down, and the PX price weakened sharply, but the supply - demand fundamentals still provide some support at the lower end [8]. - The strengthening of cost support is the main driver for the rise in PTA prices this week. From the perspective of supply - demand, there have been limited changes in the domestic supply side, but the downstream demand has remained weak. The supply - demand has maintained a weak pattern, and inventories have continued to accumulate. The short - term weak trend is expected to continue. Recently, the PTA spot processing fee has been compressed to a low level of around 200 yuan/ton. Many large - scale plants are planning maintenance in August, and it is expected that the supply will decline. There is an expectation of marginal improvement in the supply - demand side, and the downward support is expected to strengthen, but close attention still needs to be paid to the trends on the cost side [8]. - Driven by the cost side this week, ethylene glycol has shown a strong performance. The increase in the ethylene glycol price has led to a slight recovery in the oil - based production profit, but the significant increase in coal prices has resulted in little change in the coal - based production profit. Ethylene glycol currently maintains a tight balance. The port inventory has slightly decreased compared to last week but has rebounded compared to the beginning of the week, with a limited inventory accumulation amplitude. Two Saudi plants have recently restarted, and it is expected that the subsequent arrival volume will gradually increase. Currently, the fundamental contradictions of ethylene glycol itself are not prominent, and the driving force mainly comes from the cost side. On Friday night, as the market sentiment cooled down and the prices of crude oil and coal weakened sharply, ethylene glycol also followed the cost decline [8]. - Although the cost - side prices have continued to rise, the processing fees of polyester downstream products have weakened on a month - on - month basis, highlighting the insufficient demand - side carrying capacity and weak performance. Overall, the supply - demand contradictions of short - fiber itself are not prominent. The improvement in the commodity atmosphere has stimulated short - term replenishment by downstream customers, and the inventory has decreased. Its price mainly fluctuates following the raw materials. The price of bottle - grade polyester chips has been oscillating strongly supported by the cost. Its operating rate has slightly decreased, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited. The short - term trend also mainly follows the upstream costs [8]. - The weak situation of the polyester industry itself remains unchanged. The polyester operating rate has continuously declined, and the weaving operating rate and textile orders have only maintained a low - level operation. The fundamental support is weak, and the expectations are also weak. This week, driven by the overall commodity sentiment, the prices of polyester industry chain products have shown a strong performance. However, on Friday night, the market sentiment declined. In terms of operation, attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunities that may arise when the fundamental driving force and price trend return to synchronization [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes of Polyester Industry Chain Products - From July 18th to July 25th, NYMEX crude oil futures decreased from $66.03/barrel to $65.07/barrel, a decrease of $0.96/barrel or 1.5%; ICE Brent crude oil futures decreased from $69.23/barrel to $67.6/barrel, a decrease of $1.63/barrel or 2.4%; domestic crude oil futures decreased from 532 yuan/barrel to 512.9 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 19.1 yuan/barrel or 3.6%. The price of CFR naphtha in Japan decreased slightly from $576.38/ton to $576.13/ton, a decrease of $0.25/ton or 0.0%. The price of CFR PX in China increased from 838.33 yuan/ton to 855.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.34 yuan/ton or 2.1%. The spot price of PTA in East China increased from 4782 yuan/ton to 4900 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton or 2.5%. The spot price of ethylene glycol in East China increased from 4429 yuan/ton to 4579 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton or 3.4%. The spot price of polyester chips in East China increased from 5825 yuan/ton to 5925 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 1.7%. The spot price of polyester staple fiber in East China increased from 6570 yuan/ton to 6615 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton or 0.7%. The spot price of polyester bottle - grade chips in East China increased from 5950 yuan/ton to 6080 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton or 2.2%. The spot price of polyester filament POY in East China increased from 6550 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton or 2.3%. The spot price of polyester filament FDY in East China increased from 7800 yuan/ton to 7925 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton or 1.6%. The spot price of polyester filament DTY in East China increased from 6800 yuan/ton to 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton or 2.9%. The spot price of polyester industrial yarn in East China decreased from 9000 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton or 3.3%. The prices of 300T 50D*50D Ditaff and 210T 75D*75D Chunyafang remained unchanged [2]. PX Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: During the week, Tianjin Petrochemical carried out maintenance. The two 1.6 - million - ton units of Fuhai Chuang, one 1 - million - ton unit of Weilian Chemical, and one 700,000 - ton unit of Fujia Dahua continued maintenance. This week, the domestic PX output was 694,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42%. The weekly average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 82.81%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35% [3]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the PX supply - demand difference has generally shown a negative value, and the inventory has been decreasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the PX supply - demand difference was - 99,200 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.7244 million tons [3]. PTA Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: There were no new changes in domestic plants during the week, and the domestic PTA supply remained stable. From July 18th to July 24th, 2025, the domestic PTA output was 1.445 million tons, the same as last week, and 39,400 tons higher than the same period last year. The weekly average domestic PTA capacity utilization rate was 80.76%, the same as last week and 0.97% higher than the same period last year [4]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the PTA supply - demand difference has been positive in most periods, and the inventory has been gradually increasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the PTA supply - demand difference was 45,500 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.8038 million tons [4]. MEG Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: This week, the load of some units in the petroleum - integrated plants was slightly adjusted, with no maintenance or restart. In terms of coal - chemical industry, Yangmei Shouyang's plant restarted after maintenance, Inner Mongolia Jinyuan's plant restarted after a short - term shutdown, and the load of Xinjiang Zhongkun's plant increased, as did the load of Shanxi Meijin. This week, the total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 59.20%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. This week, the weekly output of Chinese ethylene glycol enterprises was 359,900 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.22% [5]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the MEG supply - demand difference has generally been negative, and the inventory has been decreasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the MEG supply - demand difference was - 36,800 tons, and the ending inventory was 1.8424 million tons [6]. Polyester Products - Polyester staple fiber: Downstream replenishment has stimulated short - fiber inventory reduction, but the spot processing fee has continued to decline. The short - fiber operating rate has decreased, and the output has decreased by 3,100 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 1.90% [57][66]. - Polyester bottle - grade chips: The raw material prices have shown a strong performance, and the bottle - grade chips processing fee has been slightly compressed. The operating rate has slightly decreased, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited [71]. - Polyester, filament, weaving, and dyeing: The terminal demand remains weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The filament operating rate has decreased, and the polyester operating rate has decreased by 0.29% month - on - month. The filament production and sales have increased significantly, and the inventory has decreased rapidly. The filament production profit has recovered. The textile enterprise operating rate has continuously decreased, and the downstream overall performance has been weak. The pure - polyester yarn operating rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased [81][82][85].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - PX: Unilateral trend weakens, pay attention to PXN profit hedging and locking, and future Asian PX supply will gradually recover [3] - PTA: Unilateral trend weakens, the industry can hedge at high prices, and pay attention to the 01 contract long PX short PTA [4] - MEG: Short at high prices, with limited upside space for the unilateral price [5][6] - Polyester: The possibility of further large - scale production cuts is decreasing, and the overall load is expected to recover in August [4][174] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX forward curve shifts up as a whole, and profits are repaired. PXN rises, and gasoline cracking spreads decline, with Asian aromatics blending demand weakening [16][28][34] - Aromatic valuations rise as a whole, toluene disproportionation profits are acceptable, and the PX - MX spread remains high [45] Supply and Demand - In June, PX domestic production increased to 3.19 million tons, and this week's operating rate was 79.9% (-1.2%). Future Asian PX supply will gradually recover [57][65][66] - In June, the import volume was 770,000 tons. South Korea's PX exports to China in May were 30,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons, and China's imports from Saudi Arabia continued to be low [68][70] Inventory - In June, Longzhong's monthly PX inventory decreased to 4.35 million tons (-160,000 tons) [87] PTA Valuation and Profit - Spot supply increases, mainly conduct basis reverse hedging and monthly spread positive hedging operations. PTA processing fees are at a relatively low level, and pay attention to the compression position of PTA processing fees under high valuations [98][107] Supply and Demand - This week's PTA operating rate remained at 79.7%. In August, pay attention to the maintenance and restart of multiple devices, and the new 3 - million - ton device of Sanfangxiang Hailun Petrochemical is expected to start [111][118] - In June, the export volume was 260,000 tons, and it is expected to recover in July - August. Port inventory continues to rise, and the cumulative amplitude of total inventory is lower than expected [119][134] MEG Valuation and Profit - Unilateral valuation is in a volatile market, and monthly spreads decline, with limited downward space. MEG's relative valuations to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics have all rebounded to the highest level this year, and profits in each link have been significantly repaired [148][153][155] Supply and Demand - Import volume: 620,000 tons in June, expected 630,000 tons in July, expected below 600,000 tons in August, and expected to recover in September. Domestic coal - based ethylene glycol plant operating rate increased to 74%; the total domestic ethylene glycol load was 66% (-1.37%) [5] - The reduction of filament factories has limited impact on the overall polyester operating rate. The current visible inventory is low, and the invisible inventory has continued to rise month - on - month [6][167] Polyester Supply and Demand - This week's polyester operating rate was 88.7% (+0.2%), and large - scale production cuts are expected to come to an end. The overall load is expected to recover in August [171][174]

下游景气度见底反弹， 原料估值跟随商品情绪修复 聚酯周报 2025/07/26 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 PTA基本面 02 期现市场 05 MEG基本面 03 对二甲苯基本面 06 聚酯及终端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结——PX ◆ 价格表现：上周大幅反弹，09合约单周上涨252元，报7062元。现货端CFR中国上涨35美元，报874美元。现货折算基差上涨28元，截至7月25 日为133元。9-1价差下降28元，截至7月25日为112元。 ◆ 供应端：上周中国负荷79.9%，环比下降1.2%；亚洲负荷72.9%，环比下降0.7%。装置方面，盛虹因前道装置故障进一步降负，天津石化检修， 金陵石化提负。进口方面，7月中上旬韩国PX出口中国23.8万吨，同比下降0.5万吨。整体上，后续国内检修量仍然偏少，负荷持续偏高。 ◆ 需求端：PTA负荷79.7%，环比持平，装置方面，上周变动不大。PTA短 ...