Group 1 - The online seminar on the integration of production and finance in the non-ferrous metal futures and spot market was launched to promote deep integration in the industry [1] - The seminar series will cover 11 sessions focusing on various non-ferrous metal futures products, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, and lithium carbonate [1] - The first session on copper discussed the global copper industry status and how to leverage futures market functions for high-quality development [1][2] Group 2 - Zhang Nan, Deputy Secretary-General of the Copper Industry Association, highlighted key aspects for copper enterprises, including industry structure, consumption growth, and regulatory requirements [2] - Mo Xinda, Deputy Secretary-General of the Aluminum Industry Association, discussed the global aluminum industry and emphasized the importance of green low-carbon development [2] - The copper market has seen a price increase and higher volatility since 2020, impacting downstream enterprises' cost management [3] Group 3 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) reported significant trading activity in copper futures, with 22.7 million contracts traded in the first half of 2025, amounting to 879 million yuan [4] - The total trading volume of non-ferrous metal futures on SHFE reached 197 million contracts in the first half of 2025, with a transaction value of 27.8 trillion yuan [5] - The introduction of aluminum alloy futures has filled a gap in the processing sector, enhancing risk management across the aluminum industry [4] Group 4 - The SHFE shared strategies for hedging in non-ferrous metal enterprises, including setting target prices and dynamically adjusting hedging ratios [6] - Companies are encouraged to utilize both futures and spot markets for hedging to stabilize their operations and manage risks effectively [6] - The focus on risk management through futures markets is seen as essential for the sustainable profitability of enterprises in the non-ferrous metal sector [3][6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Entering September, China's refined copper production is expected to decline. Coupled with the expected decrease in recycled copper substitution and the seasonal recovery of demand, the copper supply is relatively balanced. Overseas demand is expected to improve, but there is still pressure for further inventory accumulation. The market has already anticipated the Fed's interest rate cut. The focus is on its attitude towards subsequent monetary policy. If it remains dovish, it will further boost market sentiment. Overall, the decline in domestic copper production and the seasonal improvement in consumption will provide strong support for copper prices. If the Fed continues to be dovish, copper prices are expected to rise. If the Fed's stance is neutral, the increase in copper prices is expected to be weaker. This month, the operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 77,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME 3M copper is expected to be between 9,600 - 10,400 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Points Summary - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and the marginal supply of domestic crude copper has tightened. The production of domestic refined copper has declined, and the decline is expected to widen in September [9]. - Demand: In August, the apparent consumption of refined copper in China is estimated to have continued to grow. In September, with the higher base, the apparent consumption is expected to decline. The overseas manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, and the short - term demand is expected to be okay [9]. - Import and Export: In August, the import window for SHFE copper opened, and the estimated import volume increased [9]. - Inventory: In August, the inventories of SHFE, LME, COMEX, and bonded areas all increased. It is estimated that there will still be some pressure for inventory accumulation overseas in September [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Market Review: In August, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The main SHFE copper contract rose 1.76% and the LME 3M copper contract rose 3.11%. The upward resonance of the global equity market and the increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut were the main reasons for the rise in copper prices. The US dollar index fell 2.16%, and the offshore RMB appreciated 1.22% [17]. - Market Spreads: In August, the inventory in the London market continued to increase, and the spot was relatively loose. The SHFE copper trend was stronger than that of LME copper, and the import window opened once. The COMEX - LME copper spread maintained a range - bound operation [20]. - Inventory & Basis: As of the end of August, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 574,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the beginning of August. The LME copper inventory continued to increase slightly, and the increase slowed down recently. The total COMEX copper inventory continued to rise, increasing by about 18,000 tons in August. In terms of the basis, the increase in LME inventory pushed Cash/3M to maintain a discount, and the discount narrowed at the beginning of September. In China, the basis remained firm due to the tight supply of scrap copper, reporting about 180 yuan/ton at the beginning of September [23][26]. - Fund Sentiment: As of the end of August, the CFTC fund position remained net long, but the net long ratio declined to 12%. The LME investment fund's long - position ratio declined, and the sentiment was still cautious. In September, the impact on market sentiment is expected to come from the Fed's monetary policy path, inventory changes, etc. [29] 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply - Copper Ore: In July, Chile's copper ore production rebounded month - on - month but remained at a relatively low level. In June, Peru's copper ore production increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Recently, there has still been some interference in overseas copper ore supply, but the impact has weakened marginally. In August, the inventory of copper concentrates at major Chinese ports rebounded, and the spot supply at ports was marginally loose. The spot TC of copper concentrates first rose and then fell in August, reporting - 41.5 US dollars/ton at the end of August. The supply - demand relationship remained tight. In September, as domestic smelting maintenance is expected to increase, TC is expected to rise [34][37]. - Supply - Refined Copper: Since August, the processing fees for domestic crude copper and imported crude copper have fluctuated and declined. Recently, the adjustment of domestic recycled copper policies has led to a decrease in the production of crude copper and anode copper from scrap, and the supply has tightened marginally. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting in mainstream domestic regions, has declined month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level, contributing positively to smelting revenue. In August, the smelter's operating rate remained high, and the production of domestic refined copper only declined slightly. In September, there will be more domestic copper smelting maintenance, and coupled with the decrease in the production of anode copper from scrap copper, the production of refined copper is expected to decline significantly (about 50,000 tons) [40][43]. - Supply - Recycled Copper: In August, the average price difference between refined and scrap copper in China was about 1,070 yuan/ton, continuing to narrow month - on - month. The substitution advantage of scrap copper was at a relatively low level. In August, under the expectation of standardizing investment promotion in various regions, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises continued to decline. In September, the recycled copper policy will become clearer. Once the policy is implemented, it is expected to bring greater pressure to recycled copper enterprises. If upstream recycling enterprises do not adjust prices, the recycled copper rod will maintain a low operating rate [46]. - Demand - China: Assuming an increase in net imports in August, the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper is estimated to be 1.394 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 3.8%. From January to August, the cumulative apparent consumption was about 10.747 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. In August, the official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs in China rebounded, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI returned above the boom - bust line, indicating a marginal improvement in the manufacturing industry's prosperity. In the first seven months of 2025, China's copper product output increased by about 9.4%. In August, the operating rate of copper product enterprises rebounded slightly and is expected to continue to rise in September. In August, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises fluctuated, and the average operating rate was lower than the same period last year. In September, there was a marginal improvement. In August, the operating rate of domestic wire and cable enterprises increased and is expected to continue to rise in September. As of July, the raw material and finished - product inventories of copper product and wire and cable enterprises decreased, and the inventory pressure was not large. In July, the year - on - year investment in the power sector decreased, and the year - on - year increase in new photovoltaic installations decreased significantly, resulting in weak related demand. High - frequency data shows that in August, domestic real estate transaction data improved month - on - month, while the production schedule of home appliances in the real estate's back - end was relatively weak; automobile sales remained relatively strong [49][52][55][58][61][64]. - Demand - Overseas: In August, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas developed economies improved. According to ICSG data, in June 2025, the global refined copper consumption increased month - on - month and maintained year - on - year growth. From January to June, consumption increased by about 5.1% [68]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Analysis - The US employment data in July was weak, and the inflation data rebounded. In late August, the Fed Chairman's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting was dovish. Currently, the market has fully priced in a 25 - BP interest rate cut by the Fed at this month's interest rate meeting. However, the actual interest rate cut amplitude and path of the Fed are still uncertain, and its impact on the market may be greater. In August, the US dollar index was relatively weak and is currently in a downward trend; the US 10 - year inflation expectation fluctuated and is waiting for a further direction [72][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper showed a slightly stronger weekly trend, with a weekly increase of +0.92% and an amplitude of 1.56%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 80,140 yuan/ton [6]. - Internationally, the US ISM Manufacturing Index in August rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7, below the market - expected 49 and remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. Domestically, in August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month; and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points month - on - month [6]. - Fundamentally, the TC fee for copper ore is running in a low range, and the raw material price is firm, providing cost support for copper prices. In terms of supply, domestic smelter production and operating rates have declined due to maintenance, and the supply shortage of raw materials such as copper concentrate and scrap copper has also limited smelter capacity to some extent, so domestic refined copper production may decrease. In terms of demand, in the short term, the relatively strong copper price due to the expected Fed rate cut has suppressed the downstream pick - up sentiment, and the trading sentiment in the spot market has cooled. In the long term, the traditional consumption peak season is still expected to boost demand, and with the increase in new orders and a slight correction in copper prices, the downstream purchasing sentiment may gradually recover. In terms of inventory, social inventory has accumulated due to a slight slowdown in demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and temporarily weak demand, with a positive industrial outlook [6]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai copper had a slightly stronger weekly trend, with a closing price of 80,140 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of +0.92%, and an amplitude of 1.56% [6]. - **International and Domestic Economic Indicators**: Internationally, the US ISM Manufacturing Index in August was 48.7, below expectations. Domestically, in August, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all increased month - on - month [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support from raw materials, supply may decrease due to smelter issues, short - term demand is weak but long - term demand is expected to improve, and inventory has accumulated [6]. - **Strategy**: Light - position oscillating trading [7] 3.2 Spot - Futures Market Situation - **Contract Indicators**: As of September 5, 2025, the basis of the main contract of Shanghai copper was - 90 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week; the contract price was 80,140 yuan/ton, up 730 yuan/ton from last week; the position was 187,152 lots, up 13,326 lots from last week; the inter - monthly spread was 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [12][15]. - **Spot Price**: The average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 80,050 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton week - on - week [15]. - **Premium and Position**: The average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 850 lots, an increase of 11,386 lots from last week [24]. - **Option Indicators**: The short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of Shanghai copper fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility; the put - call ratio of option positions was 0.72, a decrease of 0.0766 from last week [29]. 3.3 Industrial Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Raw Material Prices**: The copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 70,440 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan/ton from last week; the southern copper scrap processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. - **Imports**: In July 2025, the import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons from June, a growth rate of 8.96%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 18.41%. The refined - scrap copper price difference (tax - included) was 1,529.89 yuan/ton, up 8.06 yuan/ton from last week [36]. - **Global Production and Inventory**: In June 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1,916 thousand tons, a decrease of 81 thousand tons from May, a decline of 4.06%; the global capacity utilization rate was 79%, a decrease of 0.9% from May. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 550,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons month - on - month [41]. 3.3.2 Supply Side - **Refined Copper Production**: In July 2025, the domestic monthly production of refined copper was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from June, a decline of 2.46%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.14%. In June 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,431 thousand tons, an increase of 45 thousand tons from May, an increase of 1.89%; the capacity utilization rate was 83.5%, an increase of 3.7% from May [46]. - **Imports**: In July 2025, the import volume of refined copper was 335,969.236 tons, a decrease of 1,073.33 tons from June, a decline of 0.32%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.05%. The import profit and loss was 655.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 650.4 yuan/ton from last week [51][52]. - **Inventory**: The LME total inventory decreased by 525 tons from last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 24,901 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,485 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 148,100 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from last week [55]. 3.3.3 Downstream and Applications - **Copper Products**: In July 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from June, a decline of 2.04%; the import volume was 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from June, an increase of 4.35%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.09% [59]. - **Power Grid and Appliance**: As of July 2025, the cumulative investment in power and grid construction increased by 3.4% and 12.5% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 2.4%, 1.5%, 5%, 2.9%, and - 6.5% year - on - year respectively [65]. - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of July 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month increase of 14.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 294.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and a month - on - month increase of 23.02% [72]. 3.4 Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, as of June 2025, the global refined copper supply was in excess, with a monthly surplus of 36 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance as of June 2025 was a surplus of 46,500 tons [77]

Group 1 - The board of directors of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. held its 24th meeting on September 4, 2025, where all directors unanimously agreed to waive the notice period for the meeting [1] - The meeting was attended by 8 directors, with 4 present in person and 4 participating via communication voting, ensuring compliance with the Company Law and the company's articles of association [1] - The board approved the proposal for the early redemption of the "Tongling Ding 02" bonds [1][2] Group 2 - The voting results for the proposal showed 8 votes in favor, with no votes against or abstentions [2] - The company disclosed additional documents related to the early redemption, including a verification opinion from Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. and a legal opinion from Anhui Chengyi Law Firm [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been rising in August, with Powell's speech turning dovish. A September rate cut is almost certain, and the market anticipates two rate cuts this year. After Trump's intervention in the Fed's positions, the market doubts the Fed's independence, causing the US dollar index to decline. The specific magnitude of the Fed's rate cut still needs attention. The US has continued to suspend the implementation of a 24% reciprocal tariff on China for 90 days since August 12. China's August PMI data showed a slight increase, indicating a marginal improvement in economic sentiment [2][55]. - In July, China's imports of copper ore concentrates were around 2.56 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase, and port inventories of concentrates also rebounded from the bottom. After the smelter processing fees showed an upward inflection point earlier, they have continued to decline in recent periods. The sulfuric acid price has reached a high, and its contribution to smelter profits is expected to decline. Smelter maintenance will gradually start in September. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons. Domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline month - on - month in September. After the copper tariff is implemented, imported copper will flow back to the domestic market, and with the expected decline in domestic production in the second half of the year, imported copper will squeeze the domestic market and affect pricing [3][55]. - As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons. Although it is currently the off - season for consumption, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities and the growing penetration rate of new energy in the automotive sector are driving copper demand. The downstream electrical appliance production is expected to improve during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. However, due to the impact of the US tariff and trade policies in the first half of the year, the terminal household appliance industry had a rush to export, which over - drew the export demand for the second half of the year. The domestic policy of "replacing old with new" also advanced domestic demand [4][56]. - Overall, the recent overseas trading of the Fed's rate cut expectation and independence issues has led to a decline in the US dollar index, supporting the non - ferrous metal market. Fundamentally, copper production is expected to decline month - on - month after September, and imported copper may increase. With domestic copper inventories still at a low level, copper supply is expected to tighten. Although the demand in the second half of the year is expected to be weaker year - on - year due to the impact of copper tariffs and the over - drawn demand from the previous terminal rush to export, there is an improving trend in the downstream copper products and terminal industries. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [4][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Economic Environment - In the US, the annual rate of the PCE price index in July increased by 2.6%, the same as the previous month. The core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year in July, higher than 2.8% in June. The initial value of new non - farm employment in July was 73,000, lower than the market expectation of 110,000 and far below the monthly average of 168,000 in 2024. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, the same as in January this year and still at a historical low [5]. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing climate. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points. The non - manufacturing and composite PMI output indices continued to expand in August. The cumulative social financing scale in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.12 trillion yuan year - on - year. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and RMB loans increased by 6.9% [7]. 3.2 Copper Supply Data - In the first half of 2025, the global copper mine production increased by about 2.7%, with the concentrate production increasing by 2.8% and the recycled refined copper production growing by 2.3%. The global refined copper consumption increased by about 4.8%, and China's apparent demand is estimated to have increased by about 7.5%. The net import of refined copper decreased by 2.6% [13]. - As of August 29, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 550,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons from the previous month. Freeport Indonesia is expected to use 90% of its expiring copper concentrate export quota next month, with a significant expected increase in exports [16]. - As of August 29, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) in China was - 41.25 US dollars per dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.12 US cents per pound. After the smelter processing fees showed an upward inflection point, they have continued to decline in recent periods. The sulfuric acid price has reached a high, and smelter maintenance will gradually start in September [19]. - In August, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 280 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.24%, and increased by 15.59% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to August increased by 978,800 tons, an increase of 12.30%. Five smelters have maintenance plans in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons. SMM expects domestic electrolytic copper production to decrease by 52,500 tons month - on - month in September, a decrease of 4.48%, and increase by 114,700 tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.42% [19]. - From January to July 2025, the total import volume was 2.2223 million tons, a 0.04% decrease from the same period last year. In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper imports were 336,000 tons, a 12.07% year - on - year increase. After the copper tariff is implemented, imported copper will flow back to the domestic market, and with the expected decline in domestic production in the second half of the year, imported copper will squeeze the domestic market [20]. - Since August, the price difference between refined and scrap copper has been widening but is still below the reasonable level. Affected by the new policy in September, downstream copper factories have little intention to purchase for inventory and are only making rigid - demand purchases. In July 2025, scrap copper imports were 190,000 tons, which is lower year - on - year but still at a historical high. Due to the US copper tariff and tight supply in Europe, scrap copper imports are expected to further decline [24]. 3.3 Copper Demand - As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons. Despite the current consumption off - season, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities and the growing penetration rate of new energy in the automotive sector are driving copper demand. The downstream electrical appliance production is expected to improve during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [30]. - According to Steel Union data, the operating load of refined copper rod enterprises has dropped to about 60%. The operating rate of copper tubes has also decreased in summer, and the terminal production orders are insufficient. However, the copper foil production has improved due to the demand from the new energy market. The overall operating rate of copper products is 61.6%, and it is expected to increase during the consumption peak season [33]. - From January to June, the investment in power grid projects was 291.1 billion yuan, a 14.6% year - on - year increase, reaching a record high for the same period. The investment in power source projects was 363.5 billion yuan, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. The power grid project is a rigid downstream demand for copper, supporting copper prices [38]. - From January to July, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease. The new construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a 19.4% decrease. Although the housing market policies in first - and second - tier cities are being optimized, the market still needs time to stabilize and currently drags down copper demand [40]. - In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, a 26.3% and 27.4% year - on - year increase respectively. From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, a 39.2% and 38.5% year - on - year increase respectively. After September, the new energy vehicle market will enter the peak season, and with policy support, it is expected to drive consumption and support copper prices [43]. - In July 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 20.597 million units, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. From January to July, the cumulative production was 183.455 million units, a 5.1% cumulative increase. The demand for air - conditioners is currently in the off - season and is expected to increase slightly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. From January to July, the cumulative production of household refrigerators was 59.632 million units, a 5.0% increase, and the cumulative production of household freezers was 15.512 million units, a 1.3% decrease. The refrigerator production is expected to rebound more strongly than air - conditioners during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. However, due to the US tariff policy in the first half of the year, the terminal household appliance industry had a rush to export, over - drawing the export demand for the second half of the year. The domestic policy of "replacing old with new" also advanced domestic demand [45]. 3.4 Inventory - As of September 2, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 158,800 tons, a 12.01% increase from the previous month and a 50.48% decrease from the same period last year. The COMEX copper inventory was 241,000 tons, an 8.24% increase from the previous month and a 600% increase from the same period last year. The global copper inventory increase is due to the release of inventory after the copper tariff implementation. The LME copper inventory has returned to a medium - level for the same period, and the global visible copper inventory is still low, supporting copper prices [48]. - As of September 3, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic copper inventory was 19,500 tons, an increase of 704 tons (4%) from the previous month and an 84.18% decrease from the same period last year. After the copper tariff implementation, the SHFE copper inventory has not increased significantly and is still at a low level. It is expected to remain low during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory has been increasing, but there was a decline last week. With the improvement of the import price ratio, some goods in the bonded area have been cleared and entered the domestic market [51].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Macro方面,美联储表态偏鸽,市场预计9月降息概率提升,提振铜价,但后续降息幅度不确定,铜价上方空间仍面临压制 - 基本面呈现"弱现实+稳预期"状态,中长期供需矛盾提供底部支撑,铜价至少维持震荡,后续步入新的上行周期需等待铜的商品属性及金融属性共振,主力参考78500 - 81000 [1] Zinc - 上游海外矿企步入投产复产上行周期,矿端供应宽松逻辑逐步传导至冶炼端,7月国内精锌产量大增 - 需求端即将步入旺季,锌价重心下移后,现货成交好转,全球库存绝对值水平偏低给予价格支撑 - 供应端宽松预期仍存,对锌价持续上冲提供的弹性不足,短期锌价或仍以震荡运行为主,主力参考21500 - 23000 [4] Aluminum Alumina - 市场呈现"高供应、高库存、弱需求"格局,当前期价已逼近国内主流成本带,下方空间相对有限,上方驱动需等待几内亚供应扰动或情绪催化,主力合约参考区间2900 - 3200元/吨 [7] Aluminum - 宏观层面美联储降息预期升温对铝价形成外部支撑,基本面供应端产能高位但成本上升,需求端下游消费边际回暖,社会库存虽小幅累库但同比仍处低位 - 整体呈现宏观预期与基本面改善共振格局,但高价对下游采购有抑制,短期预计维持20400 - 21000元/吨区间震荡 [7] Aluminum Alloy - 供应端废铝市场供应趋紧,对成本形成支撑,近期多地税收政策调整使部分再生铝厂减产或停产 - 需求端终端消费仍偏弱,累库趋势延续,9月起市场将迎来淡旺季转换,部分压铸企业订单已出现边际回暖迹象 - 若进口比价维持,进口铝合金锭及废铝补充有限,预计现货价格保持坚挺,铝合金与铝价差有望进一步收敛,主力合约参考运行区间20000 - 20600元/吨 [8] Tin - 供应方面,现实锡矿供应维持紧张,7月国内锡矿进口环比下降,实际出矿预计延至四季度,关注缅甸锡矿恢复情况 - 需求方面,光伏抢装机结束后,部分地区订单和开工率下滑 - 受国家政策指引,市场对于国内Al需求预期向好,同时基本面延续强势,锡价偏强震荡,运行区间参考285000 - 265000 [10] Nickel - 宏观方面,美国宽松预期提振,国内反内卷背景下政策预期偏积极 - 产业层面,精炼镍现货成交尚可,矿价坚挺,镍铁价格偏强,不锈钢需求仍偏弱 - 情绪影响弱化,近期成本有一定支撑,基本面供需变动不大,价格下跌空间有限,中期供给宽松不改制约价格上方空间,短期预计盘面以区间调整为主,主力参考118000 - 126000 [11] Stainless Steel - 宏观方面,美联储降息预期升温,中美关税谈判结果落地出口压力阶段性缓和,国内政策态度偏积极 - 矿价坚挺,镍铁市场议价区间上移,钢厂生产利润修复,对于镍铁压价心态有所缓解 - 季节性和政策窗口之下需求预期改善,但目前终端需求疲软现实未改,不锈钢社会库存去化仍较慢 - 原料价格坚挺成本支撑强化,伴随旺季来临市场持谨慎乐观态度,库存压力放缓,但基本面仍受制于现货需求偏弱,短期盘面区间震荡为主,主力运行区间参考12600 - 13400 [13] Lithium Carbonate - 消息面上,关于大厂复产信息多有发酵,目前官方尚无公告 - 近期碳酸锂基本面维持紧平衡,供应收缩预期逐步兑现,需求表现稳健偏乐观,但材料产业链库存压力之下实际需求尚大幅提振仍需跟踪 - 近期利多出尽演化为情绪利空,期现共振整体交易氛围转弱,但9月底之前供应端消息尚未完全落地,基本面改善仍然为价格提供下方支撑,预计盘面价格中枢下移后宽幅震荡为主,主力区间参考7 - 7.5万 [14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1电解铜现值80160元/吨,日涨260元,涨幅0.33% - 精废价差现值1852元/吨,日涨215元,涨幅13.13%等 [1] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值20元/吨,日涨30元 [1] Fundamental Data - 8月电解铜产量117.15万吨,月环比下降0.24% - 境内社会库存现值13.21万吨,周环比增长7.40%等 [1] Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0锌锭现值22150元/吨,日涨50元,涨幅0.23% - 进口盈亏现值 - 2267元/吨,日跌64.32元 [4] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值 - 45元/吨,日跌20元 [4] Fundamental Data - 8月精炼锌产量62.62万吨,月环比增长3.88% - 中国锌锭七地社会库存现值14.63万吨,周环比增长5.63%等 [4] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00铝现值20710元/吨,日涨90元,涨幅0.44% - 进口盈亏现值 - 1359元/吨,日跌35.7元 [7] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值15元/吨,日跌5元 [7] Fundamental Data - 8月氧化铝产量773.82万吨,月环比增长1.15% - 中国电解铝社会库存现值62.30万吨,周环比增长1.14%等 [7] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM铝合金ADC12现值20750元/吨,日涨幅0.00% - 佛山破碎生铝精废价差现值1608元/吨,日涨幅0.00% [8] Monthly Spread - 2511 - 2512现值 - 10元/吨,日涨5元 [8] Fundamental Data - 7月再生铝合金锭产量62.50万吨,月环比增长1.63% - 再生铝合金锭周度社会库存现值3.75万吨,周环比增长6.84%等 [8] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1锡现值273500元/吨,日涨1000元,涨幅0.37% - LME 0 - 3升贴水现值148美元/吨,日跌27美元,跌幅15.43% [10] Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - 进口盈亏现值 - 20382.26元/吨,日跌5.53元,跌幅0.03% [10] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值 - 320元/吨,日涨20元,涨幅5.88% [10] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - 7月锡矿进口10278吨,月环比下降13.71% - SMM精锡7月平均开工率66.19%,月涨幅0.00%等 [10] Inventory Changes - SHEF库存周报现值7566吨,周涨75吨,涨幅1.00% [10] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1电解镍现值124050元/吨,日跌250元,跌幅0.20% - 期货进口盈亏现值 - 1504元/吨,日跌1055元,涨幅234.97% [11] Electrolytic Nickel Cost - 一体化MHP生产电积镍成本现值118531元/吨,月跌3422元,跌幅2.81% [11] Monthly Spread - 2510 - 2511现值 - 200元/吨,日跌70元 [11] Supply and Demand and Inventory - 中国精炼镍产量现值37800吨,月涨400吨,涨幅1.26% - SHFE库存现值26943吨,周跌19吨,跌幅0.07%等 [11] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (无锡宏旺2.0卷)现值13200元/吨,日涨50元,涨幅0.38% - 期现价差现值410元/吨,日涨40元,涨幅10.81% [13] Raw Material Price - 菲律宾红土镍矿1.5%(CIF)均价现值57美元/湿吨,日涨幅0.00% - 内蒙古高碳铬铁FeCrC1000均价现值8400元/50基吨,日涨100元,涨幅1.20% [13] Monthly Spread - 2510 - 2511现值 - 70元/吨,日跌10元 [13] Fundamental Data - 中国300系不锈钢粗钢产量(43家)现值171.33万吨,月环比下降3.83% - 300系社库(锡 + 佛)现值49.90万吨,周环比下降1.09%等 [13] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM电池级碳酸锂均价现值77500元/吨,日跌850元,跌幅1.08% - 锂辉石精矿CIF平均价现值887美元/吨,日跌11美元,跌幅1.22% [14] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2511现值 - 20元/吨,日涨160元 [14] Fundamental Data - 8月碳酸锂产量85240吨,月环比增长4.55% - 碳酸锂总库存(8月)现值94177吨,月环比下降3.75%等 [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Copper: The pricing of copper will return to macro trading. Without a clear recession expectation in the US, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. Copper prices will at least remain volatile. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 78,500 - 80,500. [1] - Aluminum: The alumina market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", with limited upside and downside space, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. The aluminum market presents a resonance pattern of improved macro - expectations and fundamentals, but high prices suppress downstream purchases. The short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [3] - Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum alloy futures price fluctuates downward with the aluminum price. If the import ratio remains stable and the supply of imported aluminum alloy ingots and scrap aluminum is limited, the spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton. [5] - Zinc: The supply side of zinc has a loose expectation, and the price may mainly fluctuate. The upward continuous rebound requires an unexpected improvement in demand and a continuous improvement in the non - recession interest - rate cut expectation. The downward breakthrough requires an unexpected strengthening of TC and continuous inventory accumulation. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,500 - 23,000. [7] - Tin: Affected by national policies, the market has positive expectations for domestic AI demand, boosting the tin price. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, with an operating range of 265,000 - 285,000. [9] - Nickel: The short - term nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract in the range of 118,000 - 126,000. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upside space of the price. [11] - Stainless Steel: The short - term stainless steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract in the range of 12,600 - 13,400. The raw material price is firm, providing cost support, but the spot demand is weak. [13] - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate price is expected to mainly oscillate widely after the price center moves down, with the main contract in the range of 72,000 - 78,000. The supply - side news has not been fully settled before the end of September, and the fundamental improvement provides support for the price. [15] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.64% to 79,900 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 250 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 12.03% to 175.85 yuan/ton. [1] Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. - In July, the electrolytic copper import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.53% to 20,620 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. - The alumina prices in most regions decreased slightly. [3] Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. - In August, the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions remained unchanged. - The month - to - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [5] Fundamental Data - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. - The operating rates of some recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.41% to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton. - The month - to - month spreads of some contracts changed. [7] Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. - In July, the refined zinc import volume was 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35%. [7] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.15% to 272,500 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 43.44% to 175.00 US dollars/ton. [9] Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import volume was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. - In July, the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42%. [9] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.55% to 124,300 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,200 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 5.24% to - 183 US dollars/ton. [11] Supply - Demand and Inventory - The domestic refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. - The refined nickel import volume in August was 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46%. [11] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased. - The futures - spot price difference decreased by 18.68% to 370 yuan/ton. [13] Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in August was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. - The stainless steel net export volume in August was 34.32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.37%. [13] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.63% to 78,350 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.68% to 76,050 yuan/ton. - The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 0.45% to 898 US dollars/ton. [15] Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. - In August, the lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25%. [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly with increased positions, rising spot premium, and strengthening basis. The cost - support logic for copper prices remains strong due to negative TC fees and rising raw material prices. The supply of domestic refined copper may decline slightly as port inventories of copper concentrates are low and raw material supply is tight. The downstream export demand may fall due to high US tariffs on copper semi - products, but domestic demand is expected to recover with policy support and the approaching traditional peak season. The overall inventory will remain at a medium - low level and gradually decrease with the recovery of consumption. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly rising implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows signs of red bar convergence. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trading at low prices with light positions, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,780 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,940.50 dollars/ton, up 38.50 dollars. The main contract's monthly spread is 30 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the position volume of the Shanghai copper main contract is 180,644 hands, up 6,818 hands. The top 20 futures positions in Shanghai copper are - 12,236 hands, up 6,550 hands. The LME copper inventory is 158,900 tons, up 950 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 79,748 tons, down 1,950 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 13,050 tons, down 50 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 20,200 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,900 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 79,955 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 60 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 56.50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 120 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 80.26 dollars/ton, up 2.53 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 41.48 dollars/kiloton, down 0.33 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 70,300 yuan/metal ton, up 640 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,000 yuan/metal ton, up 640 yuan. The processing fee for rough copper in the south is 700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the north, it is 700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, down 3.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 0 yuan/ton, down 55,290 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,250 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.5 billion yuan, up 40.434 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 5357.977 billion yuan, up 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.26%, up 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.06%, down 0.04%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 9.69%, up 0.0106%; the put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.26, up 0.0541 [2]. Industry News - The Fed's Daly hinted at a September rate cut, saying there is a tension between the dual goals. The US core PCE price index in July rose 2.9% year - on - year, a new high since February 2025. China's economic sentiment generally continued to expand in August. The China Automobile Dealers Inventory Alert Index in August was 57.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. In July, the world's automobile sales reached 7.73 million units, up 7% year - on - year and down 4% month - on - month. In the first half of 2025, the new energy vehicle production and sales continued to grow at a high rate, the home appliance industry's revenue and net profit increased by over 9%, and the consumer electronics industry's revenue increased by 24.82% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is mainly influenced by macro - factors, showing a high - level range - bound and strong trend. With the approaching of the peak season, the demand is expected to increase, and the copper price may have an upward space [3]. - The aluminum market is affected by factors such as the rainy season in Guinea, changes in alumina production capacity, and demand recovery. It is recommended to go long on aluminum at low prices and stay on the sidelines for alumina [3]. - The zinc market has sufficient supply and weak demand recovery. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - The lead price is in a short - term weak and range - bound situation, and it is recommended to go long at low prices within the range [3]. - The nickel market is in a long - term supply surplus situation. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately at high prices, and conduct range trading for stainless steel [4]. - The tin market has limited supply improvement and weak demand in the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to supply and demand changes [4]. - The industrial silicon market has high risks before the release of the photovoltaic conference results. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a wide - range fluctuation. It is recommended to trade carefully and pay attention to upstream production reduction and downstream production scheduling [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **8/25 - 8/31 Economic Data**: The US economic data is mixed, with some indicators better than expected and some worse. For example, the US 7 - month Chicago Fed National Activity Index was - 0.19, worse than the forecast of - 0.11; the 7 - month durable goods orders had a month - on - month initial value of - 2.8%, better than the forecast of - 3.80% [11]. - **Policies and Events**: The State Council issued the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action", aiming to promote the integration of AI in multiple fields. Trump removed the Fed governor, which may affect the Fed's independence [12][14]. - **9/1 - 9/7 Forecast Data**: Forecasts for economic data such as China's and the euro - zone's PMIs, and US employment data are provided, but the actual values are not given [17]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Trend**: The copper price is in a high - level range - bound and strong trend, with a short - term operating range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic market supply has increased, while downstream replenishment is cautious. The apparent consumption shows the resilience of demand [3]. - **Inventory**: LME and US COMEX copper inventories are increasing, while the domestic inventory is relatively stable [3]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The aluminum price is in a high - level range - bound and upward - trending state. The short - term operating range of Shanghai aluminum is 20,500 - 20,950 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season in Guinea. Alumina production capacity has decreased slightly, while electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased steadily. The downstream demand is gradually recovering [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased [3]. 3.4 Zinc - **Price Trend**: The zinc price is in a weak - range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc concentrates is abundant, and the production of refined zinc is high. The downstream consumption recovery is not significant, and enterprises mainly make rigid purchases [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 144,500 tons, an increase of 11,600 tons from August 21 [3]. 3.5 Lead - **Price Trend**: The lead price is in a short - term weak - range - bound state, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The LME and COMEX lead inventories have decreased, while the SHFE lead inventory has increased. The downstream lead consumption is insufficient, and the market is sensitive to price changes [3]. 3.6 Nickel - **Price Trend**: The nickel price is in a range - bound state in the short - term, with a reference operating range of 119,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The stainless steel price is in a weak - range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of nickel ore is relatively abundant, and the nickel market is in a surplus state. The demand for nickel iron has certain support, and the downstream of stainless steel mainly makes rigid purchases [4]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly [4]. 3.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: The tin price is in a range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 10 contract [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in the off - season is weak. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover gradually [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges and domestic social inventories are at a medium level and have increased [4]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: The industrial silicon price is in a wide - range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of industrial silicon has increased, and the production of polysilicon has also increased. The production of organic silicon has decreased [4]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of industrial silicon has decreased, while the three - port inventory has remained flat [4]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: The lithium carbonate price is in a wide - range - bound state, and it is recommended to trade carefully [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is affected by mining license issues, and the demand for energy storage terminals is good [4]. - **Inventory**: No specific inventory information is provided [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the macro - aspect, Powell's dovish stance boosts market expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the easing of Sino - US trade frictions, along with the expected continuous release of domestic counter - cyclical policies and the recovery of the August manufacturing PMI, are expected to improve downstream demand. In the fundamental aspect, the tight supply of copper concentrates persists, and the processing fees remain at historical lows. Although refined copper production is high and imports are increasing, downstream inventory replenishment is cautious. With the transition from the off - season to the peak season, copper prices are expected to rise, and it is predicted that copper prices will be more likely to rise than fall in September [90][91]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In August, copper prices showed a strong trend with a monthly increase of 1.74%. Macro sentiment improved due to the easing of Sino - US trade frictions and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut. At the end of the month, copper prices returned to the fundamentals. The supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the spot processing fees were at historical lows. Domestic refined copper production remained high, and the terminal consumption market was in the off - season. The limited increase in domestic copper social inventory and the low - level inventory supported copper prices. There is still upward momentum for copper prices in September [5]. 3.2 Macro Factor Analysis 3.2.1 Overseas Macro - US inflation pressure in July was relatively mild. The non - farm payrolls in July dropped sharply, and the unemployment rate rose. The speech at the global central bank annual meeting increased the expectation of a rate cut in September. In August, the US manufacturing PMI expanded at the fastest pace in more than three years, and the US dollar index weakened, slightly boosting commodity prices [11][12]. 3.2.2 Domestic Macro - In July, China's CPI turned positive, and the core CPI's year - on - year increase continued to expand. The social financing scale growth remained stable, and local government special bond issuance increased significantly. In August, the manufacturing PMI improved, and the non - manufacturing PMI accelerated expansion, but the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline [19][21]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Mine - end Supply - From January to June, the global copper concentrate production was 11.44 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.32%. Although the increase in the first half of the year was lower than expected and there were occasional disturbances, the overall production remained stable. The copper mine production in Chile and Peru from January to May increased by 4.04% year - on - year [28]. 3.3.2 Smelting End - The supply of copper mines remained tight, and the smelting - mining contradiction continued. As of August 25, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) of copper concentrates was at a historical low of around - 41 dollars per ton. The domestic southern and imported CIF copper concentrate processing fees were also at historical lows [32]. 3.3.3 Refined Copper - In July, the copper production capacity utilization rate rebounded, and the electrolytic copper production increased year - on - year. In August, the price of smelting by - product sulfuric acid remained strong, which compensated for the smelting losses to some extent [35]. 3.3.4 Import and Export - In July, China's refined copper and unforged copper and copper products imports increased year - on - year. As of August 29, the electrolytic copper Shanghai - London ratio decreased, and the import loss narrowed [38]. 3.3.5 Scrap Copper - In July, domestic scrap copper imports decreased year - on - year. The spread between refined and scrap copper narrowed, and some scrap copper holders hoarded goods, and some regenerated copper rod enterprises stopped production [40]. 3.3.6 Processing Link - In July, the operating rates of refined copper rods and regenerated copper rods decreased. The operating rates of copper foil, copper tubes, copper strips, and copper rods showed different trends, with the copper foil operating rate rising and the others mostly falling [42][47]. 3.3.7 Terminal Demand - From January to July, power project investment increased steadily, and the installed capacity continued to grow, but the growth rate of new installed capacity in the second half of the year is expected to slow down. The real estate market is still at the bottoming stage, dragging down copper demand. In July, new energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly, and household appliance production growth showed resilience, which will continue to support copper demand [50][52][60][62]. 3.3.8 Inventory - As of August 29, domestic copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange and in the social market rebounded slightly but remained at historical lows. Global copper inventories continued to rise [69][70]. 3.3.9 Premium and Discount - In August, the domestic copper spot maintained a premium, and the LME copper spot/3 - month remained at a discount [74]. 3.3.10 Long and Short Positions in Domestic and Overseas Markets - As of August 29, the trading volume of Shanghai copper decreased, and the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions first decreased and then increased [76]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - Technically, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper has moved up, with a short - term operating range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan per ton, and there is a trend of upward breakthrough in the later stage [84]. 3.5 Outlook for the Future - In the macro - aspect, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut is increasing, and the domestic economic situation is improving, which is expected to boost downstream demand. In the fundamental aspect, the tight supply of copper concentrates persists, and the transition from the off - season to the peak season will bring upward momentum to copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will be more likely to rise than fall in September [90][91].