当地时间10月25日上午，中美两国经贸团队在马来西亚吉隆坡开始举行中美经贸磋商。 让我们一起期待磋商取得阶段性成果。 市场休整期间，来看会对市场产生影响的重要资讯。 美国总统特朗普启程访问亚洲三国 当地时间10月25日，央视记者获悉，美国总统特朗普已启程前往东南亚，展开为期一周的亚洲三国访问 行程，将先后访问马来西亚、日本与韩国。 特朗普在途中于卡塔尔首都多哈短暂停留，与卡塔尔埃米尔及首相举行了会面。 不满加拿大反关税广告，特朗普宣布对加方征收10%额外关税 据央视报道，当地时间10月25日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上再度指责加拿大发布"伪 造"的美国前总统里根讲话视频，称其"使用剪辑后的音视频误导公众"，并表示此举属于"欺诈行为"。 特朗普援引里根基金会声明称，加方未获授权使用或编辑里根讲话内容，基金会正研究法律应对方案。 他表示，加拿大此举意在通过虚假宣传影响美国最高法院对关税问题的裁决。 据新华社报道，欧洲信用评级机构范围评级公司日前发布报告，将美国主权信用评级从"AA"下调 至"AA-"，原因是美国公共财政状况持续恶化及政府治理标准下降。 该机构表示，美国公共财政持续恶化主要表现在财政赤字 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report indicates that the macro - sentiment is warm. Copper valuation is slightly bearish, with the global manufacturing PMI showing a downward trend, copper concentrate processing fees providing bullish drivers, and the US dollar index being neutral. Given the expected tight supply of copper raw materials and low inventories in LME and domestic markets, copper prices are expected to remain strong. This week, the reference range for the main SHFE copper contract is 85,500 - 90,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 10,500 - 11,300 US dollars/ton [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Spot processing fees for copper concentrates and blister copper have declined, and the supply of cold materials has tightened marginally. Freeport's Q3 copper production was 912 million pounds, lower than 1.1 billion pounds in the same period last year, and sales were 977 million pounds, slightly below the target [11]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 0.4 tons week - on - week. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.5 to 105,000 tons, LME inventory decreased by 0.1 to 136,000 tons, COMEX inventory increased by 0.2 to 317,000 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 10,000 tons. The domestic Shanghai spot copper premium was 10 yuan/ton over futures, and the LME Cash/3M was at a discount of 26 US dollars/ton [11]. - Import and Export: Domestic electrolytic copper spot imports remained at a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium stabilized. In September 2025, China's refined copper imports were 374,000 tons, and net imports were 348,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The cumulative imports from January to September were 2.53 million tons, and net imports were 2.418 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% [11]. - Demand: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises declined. With the strengthening of the copper price, downstream purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread widened, and the substitution advantage of scrap copper increased, but the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises only slightly increased [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: Copper prices fluctuated strongly. The main SHFE copper contract rose 3.95% week - on - week, and LME copper rose 3.21% to 10,947 US dollars/ton [20]. - Spot Prices: The report provides price data for various copper products such as electrolytic copper, copper wires, and copper rods at different times [22]. - Premiums and Discounts: Domestic copper prices strengthened. On Friday, the spot copper in East China had a premium of 10 yuan/ton over futures. LME inventory decreased, the proportion of cancelled warrants increased, and the Cash/3M remained at a discount of 26 US dollars/ton. Last week, domestic electrolytic copper spot imports remained at a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) rebounded [25]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot rough smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrates declined to - 42.7 US dollars/ton. The price of sulfuric acid in East China rebounded, which still had a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [33]. - Import - Export Ratio: No specific analysis of the import - export ratio was provided in the summary part. - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The loss of copper spot imports narrowed in a fluctuating manner [38]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges was 557,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.5 to 105,000 tons, LME inventory decreased by 0.1 to 136,000 tons, COMEX inventory increased by 0.2 to 317,000 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory was 110,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The decrease in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, and the number of copper warrants decreased by 7,778 to 35,071 tons. LME inventory decreased, with the decrease coming from Asian and European warehouses, and the proportion of cancelled warrants increased [41][44][47]. 4. Supply Side - Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output: According to SMM research, China's refined copper output in September 2025 decreased month - on - month, and it is expected to continue to decline in October. According to NBS data, the domestic refined copper output in September was 1.266 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1%, and the cumulative output from January to September was 11.125 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0% [52]. - Import and Export: In August 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.587 million tons, a month - on - month decrease, and the cumulative imports from January to September were 22.634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. In September, imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 490,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2%, with cumulative imports from January to September at 4.019 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. Anode copper imports in September were 50,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 32.8%, with cumulative imports from January to September at 528,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%. In September, refined copper imports were 374,000 tons, net imports were 348,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, with cumulative imports from January to September at 2.53 million tons, and net imports at 2.418 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, the import proportion from Zambia, Chile, Peru, etc. increased, while that from Congo (Kinshasa), the Netherlands, etc. decreased. In August, refined copper exports were 26,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons, and domestic spot copper feed - processing exports remained profitable. In September, recycled copper imports were 184,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, with cumulative imports from January to September at 1.699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [55][58][61][64][67][70]. 5. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs both rebounded in September, and the manufacturing prosperity continued to improve. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies weakened marginally, with the manufacturing PMIs of the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, and India all declining [77]. - Downstream Industry Output: In September, the year - on - year output growth was seen in the automotive, color TV, AC motor, and power generation equipment industries, while the output of refrigerators, air conditioners, and freezers declined year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative output of power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and AC motors increased year - on - year, while the cumulative output of color TVs and freezers decreased [80]. - Real Estate Data: From January to September, domestic real estate data remained weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all declining year - on - year, and the decline in construction and completion narrowing compared to the first eight months. The national real estate climate index continued to decline in September [83]. - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates: In September, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises strengthened but is expected to weaken in October; the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises weakened and is expected to continue to decline in October. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises increased in September but is expected to decline in October; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises was relatively stable in September and is expected to remain stable in October. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises rebounded in September but is expected to decline in October; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises rebounded in September and is expected to decline slightly in October. The operating rate of copper plate and strip enterprises slightly increased in September but is expected to decline in October; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises improved in September and is expected to continue to improve in October [86][89][92][95]. 6. Capital Side - SHFE Copper Positions: The total SHFE copper positions increased by 106,072 to 1,167,224 lots (bilateral), among which the positions of the near - month 2511 contract were 208,184 lots (bilateral) [102]. - Foreign Fund Positions: As of September 23, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 12.3%; the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds increased (as of October 17) [105].

Group 1: Report Summary - China-US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, and the market risk preference has increased [11] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held from October 20th to 23rd, passing the "Proposal on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development", which injected confidence into the market [14] - As of the week of October 17th, the standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.7 dollars/ton dry, down 0.13 dollars/ton dry from last week, and the copper concentrate processing fee continued to be under pressure [23] - The trading strategy is to wait for the opportunity to buy on dips when Shanghai copper is in a strong state but may face pressure at the 88,000 integer mark [5] Group 2: Bull - Bear Focus Bullish Factors - Spot processing fees remain low, and the tightness at the mine end still exists; social inventory has a small decline [8] - Domestic and foreign macro - sentiments have warmed up; China - US economic and trade consultations have started, and the market risk preference has increased [8][9] Bearish Factors - Downstream feedback shows weak consumption performance [8] Group 3: Data Analysis Copper Ore and Concentrate Imports - In September, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.5869 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.43%. The supply from Chile dropped by more than 30% [20] Copper Concentrate TC - As of October 17th, the copper concentrate TC continued to be at a low level, and the long - term negotiation has entered the initial stage with large differences [23] Electrolytic Copper Production - In September, the domestic electrolytic copper output was 1.1498 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. In October, the output is expected to continue to decline due to peak - season maintenance and other factors [25] Scrap Copper Imports - In September, China's scrap copper imports were 184,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, mainly due to policy adjustments and market demand [29] Copper Plate and Strip Production - In September, the domestic copper plate and strip production was 196,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%, ending four consecutive months of decline but still lower than the same period last year [33] Copper Rod Production - In September, the domestic refined copper rod production was 849,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%, and the recycled copper rod production was 170,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04% [37] Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference - As of October 23rd, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around 230 yuan/ton, which is conducive to refined copper consumption [41] Copper Inventory - As of October 23rd, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 189,800 tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons from the 20th. LME copper inventory decreased, while SHFE copper inventory increased [54] Copper Spot Premium - On October 23rd, the Shanghai Wumaohui 1 copper spot premium turned to a discount, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount narrowed [58] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Real Estate Market - From January to September, real estate development investment, new construction area, and sales volume all declined year - on - year. In September, the housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline, and the real estate market is still weak [45][47] New Energy Vehicle Industry - In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%, showing a strong development momentum [50] Group 5: Market Outlook - Shanghai copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Wait for the opportunity to buy on dips and pay attention to the results of China - US consultations [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite following the Sino - US trade talks. Macro factors like tariff policies, overseas liquidity, and COMEX - LME spread are important. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, but high prices may suppress downstream demand. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. Spot prices are expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate, with the main contract in the range of 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is significant, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to LME zinc market concerns and Sino - US trade talks, zinc prices rebounded. Supply is expected to be loose, and demand has no outstanding performance. Short - term prices may be driven by macro factors, but the upward elasticity is limited, with the main contract in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Tin prices continued to oscillate at a high level. Supply is tight, and demand is weak. Future price trends depend on the recovery of Burmese tin ore supply in the fourth quarter [10]. Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Macro factors are temporarily stable, cost has support, but inventory accumulation exerts pressure [12]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to weakly oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton. There is cost support at the ore end, but demand during the peak season is not strongly boosted [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 76,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton. The fundamentals have improved, with strong demand during the peak season and continued destocking [16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85,490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the previous day. The opening discount decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3,366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month. The import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 3.11% to 68.07 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day. Alumina prices in various regions declined slightly [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month. Electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increased to varying degrees [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% from the previous day. The import loss increased to 6,393 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month. The import volume decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price fell to 280,000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day. The import loss increased to 16,213.05 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month. SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122,150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The import loss decreased to 670 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in September was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month. The import volume decreased by 3.00% to 17,010 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13,000 yuan/ton. The futures - spot price difference decreased to 405 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month. The import volume increased by 2.70% to 12.03 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74,800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate benchmark) decreased to - 1,980 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month. The demand was 116,801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite after China and the US agreed to conduct economic and trade consultations. In the short - term, China - US talks boosted market sentiment, the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and the COMEX - LME spread widened. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, and high copper prices moderately suppress downstream demand. The terminal demand has strong resilience. The main contract is expected to be supported at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. The futures price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. With stable supply, resilient demand, and declining inventory, the short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to concerns about the LME zinc market squeeze and China - US economic and trade consultations, the Shanghai zinc price rebounded. The supply is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply - loose logic, with the main contract in the range of 21800 - 22800 [8]. Tin - Tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. The tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly in the fourth quarter, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - factors are temporarily stable, and the cost has support, but inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a low - level upward repair. Macro - factors may bring policy expectations. The supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is not obvious. The short - term market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market showed a significant upward trend. The supply - demand gap exists in the peak season, and demand is optimistic. The short - term market is expected to run strongly, with the main contract in the range of 76000 - 82000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [3]. - Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased to 280000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 in September, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13000 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 [16].

Group 1 - The event held in Dongying City on October 23 aimed to bridge the gap between chain-leading enterprises and specialized innovative companies in the copper industry, promoting effective integration of research outcomes with industrial needs [1] - Shandong Province has developed a complete copper industry system from mining to deep processing, becoming one of the strongest provinces in copper processing capacity in China [3] - Dongying is a significant copper industry cluster in China, with a cathode copper production capacity of 940,000 tons, accounting for 10% of the national total, ranking fourth in the country and first in the province [3] Group 2 - The event featured a report on copper industry development policies and trends, analyzing the current state of the copper industry and interpreting the latest national policies for enterprise development planning [4] - Key enterprises such as Shandong Zhongjin Lingnan Copper Industry Co., Ltd. and Yanggu Xiangguang Copper Industry Co., Ltd. expressed their technological innovation and industrial cooperation needs during the event [4] - Over 100 participants, including representatives from municipal industry and information bureaus, industry experts, enterprise representatives, financial institutions, and research institutions, attended the event [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday. High prices are suppressing demand, but terminal demand remains resilient. The supply shortage of copper ore supports the price bottom. It is expected that the domestic refined copper production in October may decline month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand and the Sino - US tariff negotiations. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. It is expected that the spot price of alumina will continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices were slightly stronger yesterday. The supply is stable, and the demand shows resilience in the peak season. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices were slightly stronger, with cost support. The supply is restricted by raw materials and policies, and the demand is moderately recovering. The inventory has started to decline slowly. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain a slightly stronger oscillation in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Due to concerns about a short squeeze in the LME zinc market, the Shanghai zinc price rebounded after hitting the bottom. The supply is abundant, but the increase in domestic zinc smelters in the second half of the year may be limited. The macro - economic environment with high probability of interest rate cuts supports the zinc price. The demand is not exceeding expectations. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will maintain an oscillation in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the supply side is strong. The demand is weak, and the new demand cannot make up for the decline in traditional consumption. The tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the macro - economic changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market had a narrow - range oscillation. The macro - economic risk has increased, and the ore end has some positive factors. The refined nickel production remains high, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market had a narrow - range oscillation. The macro - economic environment has some positive factors, but the nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the demand in the peak season is not strongly boosted. It is expected that the market will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market was strong. The supply - demand gap remains after entering the peak season. The downstream demand is optimistic. The inventory is declining. It is expected that the market will run strongly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [18][20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 84,955 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 6.66% to 3,145 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month; the import volume was 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 20,980 yuan/ton, up 0.05% from the previous day. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2,820 yuan/ton, down 0.35% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the alumina production was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 1.12% to 1,809 yuan/ton [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 21,900 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import loss was - 6,123 yuan/ton, down 760.42 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin was at 281,000 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 56.00 US dollars/ton, up 50.00% from the previous day [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 370 yuan/ton, up 11.90% from the previous day [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import was 8,714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 122,100 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,500 yuan/ton, up 2.04% from the previous day [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 180 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: In September, the Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,010 tons, down 3.00% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) average price was 58 US dollars/wet ton, up 1.75% from the previous day [16]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month; the import volume was 12.03 million tons, up 2.70% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 74,350 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 857 US dollars/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day [18]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 340 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton from the previous day [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month; the demand was 116,801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper fundamentals may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory accumulation. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 85,420 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,657 dollars/ton, up 33.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 233,361 lots, up 2,135 lots. The LME copper inventory is 137,150 tons, down 25 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 110,240 tons, up 550 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 84,955 yuan/ton, down 775 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 85,055 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan. The CU main contract basis is - 465 yuan/ton, down 795 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 75,320 yuan/metal ton, down 770 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 76,020 yuan/metal ton, down 770 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 126.6 million tons, down 3.5 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 223.2 million tons, up 1 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 379.576 billion yuan, up 48.079 billion yuan; the cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6770.571 billion yuan, up 739.652 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 22.74%, down 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.94%, down 0.01%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility is 17.58%, down 0.0187%; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.28, up 0.0062 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Reuters survey: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain. Trump plans to visit China early next year. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has in - depth exchanges on issues such as export controls and the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles [2]

中美谈判前，铜价宽幅震荡运行 沪铜周度报告·2025年10月21日 姓名：安冉 从业资格号：F3049294 交易咨询证书号：Z0017020 姓名：王海聪 从业资格号：F03101206 交易咨询证书号：Z0022465 联系人：陈天敏 从业资格号：F03134700 目 录 01 周度综述：宏观/周度数据/多空逻辑/风险提示 02 铜产业链解析：价格/价差/成本/利润/供给/需求/库存 CONTENTS 资金持仓：外盘持仓CFTC/LME 03 数据来源：wind SMM 中泰期货整理 Part 01 周度综述 ➢ 周度综述（10.13-10.17） ➢ 本页数据为2025.10.13-2025.10.17日期内周度数据对比 | | 项目 | | | | | 周度数据 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上期 | 当期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | | 铜精矿现货TC（美元/ | -40.36 | -40.97 | -0.61 | -1.51% | 周内铜精矿市场成交较为冷清 ，TC小幅回落 后续重点关注11月长单谈判的结果 。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday, with high prices suppressing demand. In the macro - aspect, attention should be paid to tariff policies, overseas liquidity, and the COMEX - LME spread. In the fundamental aspect, tight copper ore supply supports the price bottom. High copper prices have a certain inhibitory effect on downstream demand, but terminal demand remains resilient. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure significant and demand weak. The aluminum market is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes, downstream acceptance of high prices, and inventory depletion rhythm [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price in a range - bound shock. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty pose constraints. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong shock, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices were volatile. The supply - side logic of looseness has been transmitted from zinc ore to zinc ingots. Demand has no unexpected performance. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but has limited upward elasticity. The main contract is expected to range from 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, while demand is weak. Considering the strong supply - side influence, attention should be paid to buying points when the macro - sentiment falls. The subsequent trend depends on the recovery of Myanmar's supply in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to be range - bound. Macro risks have increased, and there is some positive news from the ore end. However, inventory accumulation exerts pressure. The main contract is expected to range from 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. The main contract is expected to range from 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel - mill supply [14][16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be strong in the short term. The main contract is expected to range from 75,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro risks [17][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.01% to 85,630 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 31.75% to 3,570 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% month - on - month to 112.10 million tons, while imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 3.11% week - on - week to 68.07 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.10% to 20,930 yuan/ton, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% month - on - month to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged. The refined - scrap spreads in different regions showed an increasing trend [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% month - on - month to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 21,870 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 101.06 yuan/ton to - 4,429 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% month - on - month to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.36% to 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 10.08% to - 142.00 dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% month - on - month to 10,510 tons, and the average SMM refined tin operating rate decreased by 31.77% to 63.90% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.20% to 122,100 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 2.08% to 2,400 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% month - on - month to 32,200 tons, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17,010 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 3.93% week - on - week to 61,188 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 12,950 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged [14]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.38% month - on - month to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.89% to 74,000 yuan/ton, and the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% month - on - month to 87,260 tons, and the total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.38% to 84,538 tons [17].