| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月15日 星期一 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 03222 | 92665 | +930.00 | 1.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -20 | 5 | -25.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 93650 | 92785 | +865.00 | 0.93% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | વેર | ୧୧ | +30.00 | - | 元/肥 | | SMM湿法铜 | 93505 | 92585 | +920.00 | 0.99% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -110 | -75 | -35.00 | - | 7C/ http | | 精废价差 | 4797 | 4007 | +79 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：日加息预期扰动 铜价面临调整风险 1、宏观。海外方面，美联储议息会议如期降息25个基点，并启动短期美债购买。点阵图显示明年预计 会有一次25个基点的降息，这意味着明年的降息动作将较今年明显放缓。鲍威尔表示购债规模未来几个 月或维持较高水平，就业市场逐步降温但慢于预期，目前利率所处位置使美联储能够耐心等待，观察经 济接下来将如何演变。下周将召开日央行议息会议，关注是否重启加息，日本央行重启加息预期或导致 过去"日元套利交易"出现平仓潮，给全球风险资产特别是美元资产构成较大压力。国内方面，关注即将 到来的中央经济工作会议。 2、基本面。铜精矿方面，国内TC报价仍处在历史低位，维系着铜精矿紧张情绪，成为基本面的强支撑 因素，且年末长协谈判仍在进行，预计TC报价对冶炼厂并不有利。精铜产量方面，12月电解铜预估产 量116.88万吨，环比增加5.96%，同比增加6.69%，12月冶炼企业有冲产量的惯性，这也无疑会凸显精矿 紧张态势。进口方面，国内10月精铜净进口同比下降31.56%至25.72万吨，累计同比下降4.67%；10月废 铜进口量环比增加6 ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月15日 星期一 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 03222 | 92665 | +930.00 | 1.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -20 | 5 | -25.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 93650 | 92785 | +865.00 | 0.93% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | વેર | ୧୧ | +30.00 | - | 元/肥 | | SMM湿法铜 | 93505 | 92585 | +920.00 | 0.99% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -110 | -75 | -35.00 | - | 7C/ http | | 精废价差 | 4797 | 4007 | +79 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term bullish sentiment for copper has cooled, but the support remains strong. Although the copper valuation is relatively neutral, considering the Fed's interest - rate cut and the positive policy tone of the domestic Central Economic Work Conference, the overall sentiment is not pessimistic. The copper ore supply remains tight, and the pressure of refined copper surplus is not significant. It is expected that the risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small, and the prices may gradually turn into a volatile trend. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 90,000 - 94,500 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is expected to be 11,200 - 12,000 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate has declined, while the processing fee of blister copper has increased month - on - month. The supply of scrap materials is relatively loose. As of the end of November, the Kuth Copper refinery under India's Adani Group is facing a serious raw material shortage crisis, with the actual arrival of copper concentrate less than 10% of the demand [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges has increased by 11,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE has slightly increased by 500 tons to 89,000 tons, the inventory of LME has increased by 1,000 tons to 166,000 tons, and the inventory of COMEX has increased by 10,000 tons to 405,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 101,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons month - on - month. The spot in Shanghai, China on Friday was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME market's Cash/3M was at a premium of 20.7 US dollars/ton [11]. - **Imports and Exports**: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper has slightly widened, and the Yangshan copper premium has remained stable. In November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 4.907 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.67% [11]. - **Demand**: Due to the high copper prices, the spot market trading has been sluggish. The refined copper rod enterprises have strictly controlled the production rhythm, and the operating rate has declined. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has first narrowed and then widened, the substitution advantage of scrap copper has increased, and the operating rate of downstream scrap copper rod enterprises has rebounded from a low level [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Copper prices have risen and then fallen. The SHFE copper main contract has increased by 1.40% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper has decreased by 2.37% to 11,552.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Prices**: The domestic copper prices have strengthened. On Friday, the copper spot in East China was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures. The LME inventory has increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants has risen, and the Cash/3M has remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 20.7 US dollars/ton on Friday. Last week, the spot import of domestic electrolytic copper remained at a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium has remained stable [25]. - **Structure**: The Back structure of SHFE copper has shrunk, while the LME copper has maintained the Back structure [28] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrate has declined to - 43.08 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China has continued to rise, which still has a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [33]. - **Imports and Exports Ratio**: The spot import loss of copper has slightly widened [38]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 661,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 101,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons month - on - month. The increase in SHFE inventory comes from Jiangsu and Guangdong, while the inventory in Shanghai has decreased. The number of copper warrants has increased by 1,102 to 32,563 tons. The LME inventory has increased, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses and a decrease in European inventory. The proportion of cancelled warrants has risen [41][44][47] 3.4 Supply Side - **Production**: In November 2025, China's refined copper production has increased by about 10,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to increase significantly in December. In October 2025, the domestic refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.98%, and the cumulative production from January to October was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.70% [51]. - **Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.526 million tons, a rebound from the previous month. The cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. In November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. In October, China's refined copper imports were 323,000 tons, and the net imports were 257,000 tons. The proportion of imports from Russia, Chile, Australia, Kazakhstan, South Korea, and Morocco has increased, while the proportion of imports from Myanmar, Japan, etc. has decreased. In October, China's exports of refined copper were 66,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons month - on - month. The import of recycled copper in October was 197,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [54][57][63] 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the consumption of electrolytic copper is mainly in the power sector (46%), followed by household appliances (15%), transportation (11%), etc. In China, the consumption is mainly in equipment (32%) and construction (26%) [72] - **Downstream Industry Output**: In October, the output of freezers among copper downstream industries has increased year - on - year, while the output of refrigerators, air conditioners, automobiles, color TVs, AC motors, and power generation equipment has decreased year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative output of automobiles, color TVs, and AC motors has increased year - on - year, while the cumulative output of freezers, power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators has decreased [78] - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates**: In November, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to slightly decline in December; the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises has decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline in December. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises has rebounded, and it is expected to slightly improve in December; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has increased better than expected, and it is expected to continue to rise in December. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to continue to rise in December; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises has increased, and it is expected to slightly strengthen in December. The operating rate of copper plate and strip enterprises has rebounded, and it is expected to increase in December; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased, and it is expected to continue to rise in December. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises has declined, while the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises has rebounded [83][86][89][92][95] - **Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: The domestic refined - scrap price difference has narrowed, and the refined - scrap price difference was reported at 4,797 yuan/ton on Friday [102] 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Position**: The total position of SHFE copper has decreased by 13,496 to 1,293,826 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2512 contract is 10,820 lots (bilateral) [107] - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of November 10, the CFTC fund position has maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 16.6%. The proportion of net long positions of LME investment funds has slightly increased (as of December 5) [110]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The copper futures market showed an upward trend with an intraday increase of nearly 2%. The Fed's potential interest - rate cut and positive signals from a macro - level meeting drove the copper price up. However, downstream demand was weak after the price increase, and in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship was expected to be in a tight balance with a bullish tendency [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - In December, 4 smelters were under maintenance, with an expected impact of 0.5 tons on production, which would be reflected in January's output data. December's output was likely to increase due to the previous resumption of production by smelters. The production of copper strips in sample enterprises was 14900 tons with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 65.65%. The production pace slowed due to rising costs, and enterprises maintained a cautious attitude approaching the end of the year. The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises declined, with poor sales and inventory accumulation. If orders remained weak, production would slow further. After the price increase, downstream demand was hit, and the market was inactive with a tendency of inventory accumulation [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened and closed higher, rising nearly 2% intraday. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 30 yuan/ton, and in South China was 85 yuan/ton. On December 12, 2025, the LME official price was 11708 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was + 32 dollars/ton [4] 3. Supply Side - As of December 8, the spot TC was - 43.03 dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.38 cents/pound [8] 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 32600 tons, an increase of 1102 tons from the previous period. As of December 11, the Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 100500 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 165900 tons, an increase of 875 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 447300 short tons, an increase of 2132 short tons from the previous period [11]

Core Viewpoint - The future development of the copper industry is emphasized through five key initiatives proposed by Wang Shilei, General Manager of China Aluminum Corporation, during the Copper Industry Supply Chain and Ecological Collaborative Development Conference [1][2]. Group 1: Five Initiatives for Copper Industry Development - Strengthening supply assurance and stability in the copper industry by actively participating in new mineral exploration strategies and enhancing the recycling and comprehensive utilization of recycled copper resources [1][2]. - Promoting high-quality development of the copper industry by implementing the "Copper Industry High-Quality Development Implementation Plan (2025-2027)" and accelerating the intelligent, green, and integrated development of the industry [2]. - Advancing the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation by establishing an efficient collaborative innovation system to enhance independent innovation capabilities and accelerate the transformation of technological achievements [2]. - Facilitating the digital transformation and upgrading of the copper industry through the comprehensive implementation of "Artificial Intelligence+" initiatives, integrating AI and big data across all business and production processes [2]. - Promoting green and low-carbon development by establishing a complete green low-carbon industrial system and standards, and pushing for low-carbon production and green products [2]. Group 2: Conference Outcomes and Industry Perspectives - The conference saw the signing of 27 projects covering various aspects such as supply-demand matching, collaborative support, innovation cooperation, resource sharing, and integration of production and finance [2]. - Industry experts highlighted the critical opportunity for transformation and upgrading in the copper sector, emphasizing the need for collaborative efforts to overcome development bottlenecks through technological innovation and digital transformation [3].

Core Viewpoint - The "Shandong Province Copper Industry High-Quality Development Action Plan (2025-2027)" aims to enhance the scale and efficiency of the copper industry, targeting a total output value exceeding 200 billion yuan by 2027 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Industry Growth Targets** - The plan sets a goal for the copper industry's total output value to surpass 200 billion yuan by 2027, indicating a steady growth in scale and efficiency [1] - **Technological Innovation and Equipment Strength** - There is an emphasis on continuous enhancement of technological innovation and equipment capabilities, with the aim to develop key processes and high-end materials [1] - **Operational Efficiency and Energy Consumption** - The core parameters and operational efficiency of electrolytic copper key devices are expected to remain at the forefront domestically, while the comprehensive energy consumption in copper smelting and the recovery rate of associated metals are projected to be industry-leading [1] - **Supply Chain Resilience and Safety** - The plan aims to improve the resilience and safety of the industry and supply chain, positioning Shandong as a globally competitive copper smelting base and a leading domestic hub for high-end copper material research and innovation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Shandong Province Copper Industry High-Quality Development Action Plan (2025-2027)" aims to enhance the scale and efficiency of the copper industry, targeting a total output value exceeding 200 billion yuan by 2027 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Industry Growth and Output - The plan sets a goal for the copper industry's total output value to surpass 200 billion yuan by 2027, indicating a steady growth in scale and efficiency [1] Technological Innovation - There is an emphasis on continuous enhancement of technological innovation and equipment strength, with the aim to develop key processes and high-end materials [1] Operational Efficiency - The core parameters and operational efficiency of electrolytic copper key devices are expected to remain in the top tier domestically, with a focus on leading levels in comprehensive energy consumption and recovery rates of associated metals in copper smelting [1] Supply Chain Resilience - The plan aims to improve the resilience and safety of the industry and supply chain, positioning Shandong as a globally competitive copper smelting base and a leading domestic hub for high-end copper material research and innovation [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Suspended [8] - Option: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - After the interest - rate meeting and the delivery date, copper prices may decline slightly. Currently, downstream consumption is relatively poor, and there is significant wait - and - see sentiment in the industry chain. Therefore, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for now [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 10, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 91,400 yuan/ton and closed at 91,850 yuan/ton, a 0.83% increase from the previous trading day's closing price. The night - session main contract opened at 92,250 yuan/ton and closed at 91,770 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price range of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was a discount of 40 yuan/ton to a premium of 100 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 30 yuan/ton, a 65 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The copper price ranged from 91,510 to 91,890 yuan/ton. Due to approaching the 2512 contract delivery, concentrated shipments by holders led to a rapid decline in spot premiums. It is expected that spot trading will continue to be under pressure, and premiums may remain slightly discounted [2] Important Information Summary Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75%. It is the third rate cut this year. The Fed will start a monthly purchase program of about $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds from December 12. Fed Chairman Powell said inflation is still high, but non - tariff - driven core inflation has improved significantly. President Trump criticized the Fed for the insufficient rate - cut amplitude [3] Mining End - On December 10, Aterian signed a binding joint - venture agreement with Lithosquare. They will launch an AI - driven exploration plan in 8 copper projects. Lithosquare will invest €1.4 million. If exploration is successful, it can increase its stake [4] Smelting and Import - As of December 8, the number of resource recycling enterprises using "reverse invoicing" reached 14,800, and the "reverse invoicing" amount this year is nearly 900 billion yuan. The resource recycling system in China is becoming more complete. From January to October 2025, the domestic recycling of scrapped cars increased by over 50% year - on - year, and the output of recycled resources from large - scale equipment was close to the 2024 annual output [5] Consumption - In November 2025, the domestic copper tube production was 138,300 tons, a 13.55% increase from October. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 59.69%, a 7.12% increase. The increase in production was due to more effective production days and market demand from e - commerce promotions and project deliveries [6][7] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,125 tons to 164,975 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 600 tons to 28,931 tons. On December 10, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 160,300 tons, a change of 1,400 tons from the previous week [7] Copper Price and Basis Data | Project | 2025 - 12 - 11 | 2025 - 12 - 10 | 2025 - 12 - 04 | 2025 - 11 - 11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot (premium/discount) - SMM: 1 copper | 30 | 95 | 140 | 55 | | Premium copper | 80 | 160 | 210 | 115 | | Flat - water copper | - 10 | 45 | 85 | 10 | | Wet - process copper | - 50 | - 15 | 0 | - 50 | | Yangshan premium | 48 | 46 | 48 | 43 | | LME (0 - 3) | 0 | 8 | 69 | - 18 | | Inventory - LME | 164,975 | 165,675 | 162,150 | 136,275 | | Inventory - SHFE | 88,905 | - | 97,930 | - | | Inventory - COMEX | 401,925 | 398,717 | 391,848 | 335,086 | | Warehouse receipt - SHFE warehouse receipt | 28,931 | 29,531 | 28,969 | 43,789 | | LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio | 38.09% | 38.39% | 3.89% | 8.60% | | CU2603 - CU2512 (continuous three - near - term) | 130 | - | 190 | 80 | | CU2602 - CU2512 (main - near - term) | 70 | - | 80 | 60 | | CU2602/AL2602 | 4.19 | 4.18 | 4.07 | 3.98 | | Arbitrage - CU2602/ZN2602 | 3.98 | 3.95 | 3.92 | 3.81 | | Import profit | - 946 | - 1078 | - 1433 | - 585 | | Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) | 7.94 | 7.96 | 7.98 | 8.04 | [26][27][28][29]

Group 1: Robotics Industry - A surge of robotics companies is seeking to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with many having submitted multiple applications [1] - Most of these companies show poor performance in their financial results, indicating a challenging market environment [1] - The industry is characterized by intense competition, with a trend of increasing rivalry noted in the listing materials [1] - Successful listings include companies like Sanhua Intelligent Controls and Junsen Electronics, but only those with strong technology patents, profit margins, and cash flow are expected to thrive [1] Group 2: Copper Market - Global concerns over copper supply shortages have led to a rise in international copper prices, reaching historical highs [2] - Despite a recent pullback in prices, the copper industry remains active, with strong demand from sectors like renewable energy and power grid construction [2] - Analysts predict that copper prices will maintain high levels in the medium to long term due to robust downstream demand and supply-side disruptions [2] Group 3: AI Glasses Market - The AI glasses market is rapidly evolving, with significant participation from tech giants, automotive companies, and startups [3] - The AI glasses theme index has increased by 9.81% since November 24, with a majority of trading days showing gains [3] - The market is seeing a shift towards consumer acceptance, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand [3] Group 4: Order Backlogs in Listed Companies - Nearly 200 listed companies have reported strong order backlogs, indicating a positive industry outlook [4] - Key sectors with high demand include machinery, electronics, and power equipment, with some companies' order schedules extending to 2029 [4] Group 5: New Energy Vehicle Tax Policy - The upcoming adjustment in the new energy vehicle purchase tax is expected to drive a surge in market activity as consumers rush to make purchases before the policy change [5] - The maximum tax exemption will be reduced from 30,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan per vehicle starting next year [5] - This shift is anticipated to transition the market focus from policy-driven to value-driven competition, emphasizing technology, cost, and service [5] Group 6: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery supply chain is experiencing a significant increase in long-term contracts, with total order values soaring [6] - This new wave of long-term agreements is characterized by larger scales, deeper commitments, and a focus on supply chain security and compliance [6] Group 7: Institutional Research in the North Exchange - The North Exchange has seen a surge in institutional research interest, with over 272 companies being covered [7] - Key areas of focus include robotics, low-altitude economy, 6G, quantum technology, and AI glasses [7] Group 8: Commercial Real Estate REITs - The imminent launch of commercial real estate REITs is generating significant market interest, with many companies preparing to submit applications [8] - The REITs market is expected to enhance the efficiency of capital allocation in the real estate sector, potentially activating a trillion-yuan market [8] Group 9: AI Intelligent Agents Market - The AI intelligent agents market is witnessing explosive growth, with average stock price increases exceeding 25% this year [9] - Notable stocks have seen significant gains, with some doubling in value, and financing balances for these stocks have increased by nearly 45% compared to the previous year [9] Group 10: Shareholder Buyback Plans - A total of 768 listed companies have announced significant shareholder buyback plans this year, reflecting confidence in their fundamentals [10] Group 11: M&A Fund Establishment - There is a growing trend of listed companies establishing industrial merger and acquisition funds, with 336 funds set up this year [11] - The total expected fundraising for these funds is projected to reach 279 billion yuan, indicating strong interest in identifying and nurturing quality targets [11]