Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets experienced significant declines ahead of the Chinese New Year, with a prevailing risk-averse sentiment overshadowing expectations for a "red envelope market" [1]. Market Performance - A-shares saw all three major indices drop, with declines exceeding 1.2%, while the STAR 50 Index showed resilience with a smaller drop of 0.72, indicating underlying support in the tech growth sector [2]. - The total trading volume in both markets was 19,827 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1,591 billion yuan, driven by a cautious "holding cash for the New Year" mentality [3]. - The Hong Kong market faced more severe adjustments, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,535.93 points, down 1.84%, influenced by a significant drop in U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq [4]. Sector Performance - The market exhibited a stark divide, with the defense and military sector rising while cyclical and new energy sectors faced heavy losses [5]. - In A-shares, the comprehensive sector rose by 2.06%, and the defense and military sector increased by 0.65%, making it one of the few sectors in the green. Conversely, cyclical and new energy sectors saw significant declines, with non-ferrous metals down 3.36%, construction materials down 3.10%, and oil and petrochemicals down 3.09% [6]. Drivers of Sector Movements - The military sector's rise was supported by two main factors: improved U.S.-China relations and ongoing domestic policy support for low-altitude economy and aerospace, which bolstered investor sentiment [7]. - The downturn in cyclical and new energy sectors was attributed to a sharp decline in international commodity prices, with silver dropping over 11% and gold also experiencing significant losses, leading to a sell-off in risk assets [8]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue a pattern of consolidation, with A-shares showing resilience due to policy support and liquidity. Key opportunities remain in the tech sector, particularly in AI computing, semiconductors, and robotics, as well as in military and low-altitude economy sectors driven by clear policy direction [11]. - However, cyclical sectors are likely to remain under pressure until there are signs of improvement in PPI and real estate policies, while the performance of Hong Kong tech stocks will depend on the stabilization of U.S. tech stocks [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry but provides insights into sector allocations and performance metrics. Core Insights - The current allocation in the multi-strategy industry configuration system includes: Basic Chemicals (22.4%), Home Appliances (10.1%), Telecommunications (10.0%), Pharmaceuticals (7.7%), and others [1]. - The best-performing sectors this week were Non-ferrous Metals (6.2%), Oil & Petrochemicals (5.1%), and Basic Chemicals (4.7%), while the worst were Food & Beverage (-4.1%), Retail (-3.1%), and Agriculture (-1.9%) [3][10]. - The composite strategy achieved a cumulative return of 2.6% this week, outperforming the benchmark by 1.3% [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance Review - The average weekly return for the 30 sectors was 1.3%, with a monthly average return of 1.2% [10]. - The top three sectors for the week were Non-ferrous Metals (6.2%), Oil & Petrochemicals (5.1%), and Basic Chemicals (4.7%) [11]. Industry Valuation Risk Warning - Current valuation alerts indicate that sectors such as Retail, Computers, Non-ferrous Metals, Defense, Oil & Petrochemicals, Electronics, Media, Machinery, Coal, and Textiles have PB ratios above the 95th percentile of their historical range, signaling potential overvaluation [13][14]. Top Performing Strategies and Recent Performance - The S1 strategy focusing on industry profitability tracking has the highest weight at 21.4%, while the S3 macro style rotation strategy has the lowest at 18.0% [3]. - The top three sectors based on the S1 strategy are Telecommunications, Basic Chemicals, and Home Appliances [16]. Composite Strategy and Performance Review - The composite strategy has significantly increased its positions in consumer and mid-cycle sectors while reducing exposure to TMT and upstream cyclical sectors [3]. Macro Style Rotation Strategy - The top six sectors favored by current macro indicators are Banking, Telecommunications, Oil & Petrochemicals, Construction, Home Appliances, and Coal [24]. Long-term Reversal Strategy - The recommended sectors for the long-term reversal strategy include Comprehensive, Pharmaceuticals, Basic Chemicals, Electric Equipment & New Energy, and Consumer Services [28].

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1401879 billion CNY, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, meeting the growth target[11] - Henan Province's GDP was 66632.79 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, exceeding the initial target of 5.5%[19] - The industrial added value in Henan grew by 8.4%, outperforming the national average by 2.5 percentage points[20] Consumption and Investment - Henan's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 29090.50 billion CNY, increasing by 5.6%, which is 1.9 percentage points higher than the national average[21] - Fixed asset investment in Henan grew by 4.0%, leading among the six central provinces, with industrial investment showing a robust increase of 13.3%[22] Trade and Exports - Henan's total foreign trade value reached 9356.7 billion CNY, a 14.1% increase, significantly higher than the national average of 3.8%[23] - High-tech product exports from Henan surged by 27.5 percentage points to 18.7%, with electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products showing substantial growth[24] Market Trends - In January 2026, the Henan Index rose by 7.52%, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300[6] - The top three A-shares in Henan for January 2026 were Yuguang Gold Lead (89.87%), Zhongcheng Technology (37.72%), and Guangli Technology (35.67%)[6] Policy and Regulatory Environment - In January 2026, financial regulatory bodies introduced policies to support the real economy and expand domestic demand, focusing on fostering new productive forces[33] - The Henan provincial government implemented several policies aimed at improving economic performance and enhancing living standards in early 2026[37]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on February 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.26% to 4082.07 points, the ChiNext Index down by 1.57% to 3275.96 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index decreasing by 1.28% to 14100.19 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 198.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.91 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The defense and military sector led the market gains, with stocks like Andavere and Yaxing Anchor Chain hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% [3] - Semiconductor stocks initially surged, with companies such as Micro导纳米 and Shengke Communication seeing increases of over 10% [3] - Conversely, the oil and gas sector faced significant declines, with major companies like China Petroleum and Sinopec dropping over 3% [3] - The materials sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, was the worst performer, with stocks like Hesheng and Xianglu Tungsten falling over 9% [3] Investor Sentiment - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, investor sentiment is shifting towards either "holding stocks over the holiday" or "holding cash and waiting," with many brokerages suggesting a strategy of holding stocks [4] - Financial analysts noted that trading activity has decreased as the holiday nears, indicating a potential phase of consolidation in the market [5] - There is a consensus among brokerages that the market is experiencing structural differentiation, with some sectors showing strength while others lag behind [5]

联系人：李智 河南资本市场月报 分析师：李济生 登记编码：S0730522100002 lijs@ccnew.com 分析师：郑婷 登记编码：S0730524110001 zhengting@ccnew.com 相关报告 《河南资本市场月报（2026 年第 1 期）》 2026-1-15 《河南资本市场月报（2025 年第 11 期）》 2025-12-9 （2026 年第 2 期） 证券研究报告 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 13 日 投资要点： 风险提示：全球贸易和产业管制政策带来的不确定性风险；经济增长和 业绩不及预期；市场流动性风险。 本报告版权属于中原证券研究所股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第 1页/共 20页 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 经济运行情况：2025 年，我国国内生产总值达到 1401879 亿元，比 上年增长 5.0%，经济增速目标圆满完成；2025 年河南省 GDP 达到 66632.79亿元，总规模位居全国第六、中部第一，GDP同 ...

- The "Hong Kong CCASS Preferred 20 Portfolio" was constructed using a two-step screening method: "select brokers first, then select stocks"[3][4] - The first step involves selecting top-performing brokers by standardizing and equally weighting their excess Sharpe ratio and monthly win rate, then selecting the top 10 brokers[4][16] - The second step involves equally distributing funds to the 10 selected brokers, aggregating their latest holdings, and retaining the top 20 stocks by weight for equal allocation[5][17] - The portfolio has shown significant outperformance over the Hang Seng Index, with an annualized excess return rate of 19.3% and an excess Sharpe ratio of 2.45 over the period from 2020 to 2025[3][12][15] - The portfolio demonstrated defensive characteristics during market adjustments, achieving a positive return of 2.05% from October 8, 2025, to December 31, 2025, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 4.47% and the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 15.32%[3][12] - The latest holdings of the portfolio as of February 2026 include a low valuation and high dividend yield configuration, with the banking and non-bank financial sectors accounting for about 45%, the energy sector about 10%, and the technology and internet sectors about 20%[6][19][22] Portfolio Performance Metrics - Annualized return: 19.3%[15] - Annualized volatility: 7.9%[15] - Sharpe ratio: 2.45[15] - Maximum drawdown: -7.6%[15] - Monthly win rate: 75.3%[15]

Group 1 - The overnight decline in foreign markets led to a lower opening for A-shares, but there was initial resilience observed in the market with certain sectors showing strength [1] - The non-ferrous metals and gold sectors opened lower but rebounded, indicating that bullish funds are reluctant to exit the market [1] - The technology sector, which had performed well previously, also showed positive movement early in the day, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board index turning positive within three minutes [1] Group 2 - After 11 AM, the coal, oil, and entertainment sectors hit new lows, negatively impacting market sentiment [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new low for the day, but the trading volume did not significantly change, which is a point of concern [1] - With only two hours left in trading for the year of the Snake, there are potential buying opportunities if the market does not experience a significant downturn [1]

在波谲云诡的金融市场里，普通人如何真正留住财富？他应对 这个复杂金融世界的"处方"，竟是一道简单的数学题和一条不 容逾越的铁律。 作者：蔡越坤 封图：图虫创意 2026年的第一声资本惊雷，并非源于人工智能（AI）或是机器人等科技创新，而是来自黄金、白 银等有色金属。 国际金价以一种近乎癫狂的姿态连创历史新高，最高触及5626.8美元/盎司，带动A股有色金属板 块"脱离地心引力"般暴涨22.59%；随后金价在1月30日上演 "高台跳水"，创下近40年来最大单 日跌幅，部分热门有色个股暴跌20%…… 当被问及最近是否会盯黄金、有色这类狂热与动荡的板块时，62岁的吴凯说："我从来不去看这些 板块，因为我喜欢分散配置。我也不追热门，因为热门行业行情更容易暴涨暴跌，我内心承受不 了。 他补充说，当散户注意到某个板块狂热的时候，相关个股已经涨得很高，此时再入场很可能就接过 了上涨的"最后一棒"。 在A股市场，有人追逐热点、频繁交易；有人执着于个股研判，博弈行业风口。吴凯是一名退休内 科医生，没有金融科班背景，却用 20年时间穿越了2008年金融危机、2015年股票市场异常波 动、2022年熊市乃至信托爆雷潮等市场巨震，将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The metal market is currently facing dual pressures from macroeconomic factors and seasonal demand weakness, leading to widespread price declines across various metals [1][22]. Group 1: Copper - Price performance shows significant declines, with LME copper dropping below $9,500/ton and domestic copper nearing 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. - Macro factors include stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data reinforcing the Fed's high interest rate expectations, leading to a rebound in the dollar index above 96.96, which pressures commodity valuations [3]. - Global visible copper inventories are rising, with LME copper stocks reaching 196,600 tons, a nine-month high, and domestic inventories increasing due to weak pre-holiday consumption [3]. Group 2: Aluminum - Price performance indicates narrow fluctuations around 23,000 yuan/ton for domestic aluminum and a drop to $3,090/ton for LME aluminum [4]. - Supply side shows domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity nearing its limit, with limited incremental growth expected, while overseas production continues to ramp up [5]. - Demand is weak as downstream processing enterprises reduce operating rates significantly, leading to increased social inventories of aluminum [6]. Group 3: Tin - Price performance reveals a significant drop in domestic tin prices, with the last trading day seeing a decline of over 4% [9]. - Macro impacts include intensified selling pressure on tin as a "risk asset" due to the Fed's tightening expectations and tech stock declines [10]. - Supply-demand dynamics show a lack of effective transmission of tightening supply from overseas mines to prices, with social inventories of tin rising amid weak market transactions [11]. Group 4: Nickel - Price performance indicates domestic nickel prices falling below 135,000 yuan/ton, with a year-to-date decline exceeding 15% [12]. - Supply-demand conditions are weak, with stable production from domestic smelters and reduced demand from stainless steel producers [13]. - Macro factors include a strong dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, which negatively impact nickel's financial attributes [14]. Group 5: Lead - Price performance shows domestic lead prices weakly fluctuating around 16,600 yuan/ton [16]. - Supply remains stable with consistent primary lead production, while recycled lead production is seasonally reduced [17]. - Demand is weak as downstream battery manufacturers reduce operations ahead of the holiday, leading to a decline in demand for electric bicycles and automotive batteries [18]. Group 6: Zinc - Price performance indicates domestic zinc prices fluctuating around 24,300 yuan/ton [19]. - Macro factors include high interest rate expectations from the Fed and concerns over metal consumption, which pressure zinc valuations [20]. - Basic support exists as domestic zinc inventories rise to 138,100 tons, but spot prices maintain a slight premium, indicating traders' willingness to support prices [21]. Conclusion and Outlook - The metal market is undergoing a dual challenge from macroeconomic pressures and seasonal demand weakness, leading to price declines [1]. - There is a notable differentiation in demand for metals related to new energy, which may present investment opportunities despite short-term adjustments [22]. - Key variables such as Fed policy shifts and domestic growth policies will be critical for post-holiday market direction [22].

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of main funds from various stocks, highlighting potential investment risks in the affected sectors. Group 1: Stock Outflows - The top stock with the largest outflow is Liou Co., with a fund outflow of 1.17 billion [1] - Zijin Mining follows closely with an outflow of 1.125 billion [1] - Bona Film Group experienced an outflow of 974 million [1] - Jiecheng Co. had a fund outflow of 914 million [1] - BlueFocus Media saw an outflow of 860 million [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The internet services sector, represented by Liou Co. and Wangsu Science & Technology, shows notable outflows of 1.17 billion and 596 million respectively [1][2] - The cultural media sector, including Bona Film Group and Jiecheng Co., experienced significant outflows totaling 1.888 billion [1][2] - The battery sector, represented by Ningde Times, had an outflow of 616 million, indicating potential concerns in this industry [1][2] - The photovoltaic equipment sector, with companies like Xiexin Integration and Sunshine Power, also faced outflows of 569 million and 501 million respectively [1][2] Group 3: Performance Metrics - Liou Co. had a slight increase in stock price by 1.21% despite the outflow [2] - In contrast, Jiecheng Co. experienced a significant decline of 11.51% alongside its outflow [2] - The overall trend shows that many companies with high outflows also faced negative stock performance, indicating a correlation between fund outflows and stock price declines [2][3]