Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the U.S. is imposing a 10% tariff on goods exported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and other countries due to their opposition to U.S. control over Greenland, while the EU is considering tariffs on U.S. goods worth €93 billion [1] - The U.S. is facing recession pressures, with high sovereign debt, long-term trade deficits, and severe industrial hollowing, which are undermining the credibility of the dollar. There is a global need for new universal assets to serve as anchors, leading to increased attention on gold as a universal equivalent [1] - The price of gold is rising, and the supply-demand dynamics are tightening, which may lead to a revaluation of commodities that have not yet been priced according to this logic, with copper being a typical representative [1] Group 2 - The Huabao ETF (159876) has continued its upward trend, reaching a peak of 0.62% during intraday trading, with a current increase of 0.53%. It has seen a net subscription of 63 million units, reflecting strong investor confidence in the non-ferrous metal sector [1] - The Huabao ETF has reached a historical high of ¥1.537 billion as of January 16, making it the largest ETF tracking the non-ferrous metal index in the market [3] - The Huabao ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better capture of the entire sector's beta performance across different economic cycles [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Baowu Magnesium Industry has seen a stock price increase of 5.36%, reaching 18.27 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 335 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.17%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 18.12 billion CNY [1] - Baowu Magnesium Industry is located in Lishui District, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, and was established on November 30, 1993, with its listing date on November 13, 2007. The company specializes in the production and deep processing of magnesium and aluminum alloy materials [1] - The revenue composition of Baowu Magnesium Industry includes: aluminum alloy extrusion products (35.90%), magnesium alloy products (26.03%), intermediate alloys (13.14%), magnesium-aluminum alloy die-casting products (11.10%), aluminum alloy products (6.67%), and others [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders, Southern Fund has a fund that ranks among the top shareholders of Baowu Magnesium Industry. The Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100) reduced its holdings by 53,600 shares in the third quarter, holding a total of 6.3518 million shares, which accounts for 0.73% of the circulating shares [2] - The Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100) was established on September 29, 2016, with a latest scale of 76.63 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 8.41%, ranking 1574 out of 5579 in its category; the one-year return is 43.88%, ranking 1725 out of 4225; and since inception, the return is 23.98% [2]

Group 1 - The main market experienced a net outflow of 17.805 billion yuan in principal funds as of January 19, with significant withdrawals from various sectors [1] - The top ten sectors with the largest fund outflows included: Semiconductor (-4.467 billion yuan), Internet Services (-3.914 billion yuan), Communication Equipment (-3.685 billion yuan), Non-ferrous Metals (-2.369 billion yuan), Software Development (-2.266 billion yuan), Cultural Media (-1.494 billion yuan), Medical Services (-0.787 billion yuan), Specialized Equipment (-0.727 billion yuan), Consumer Electronics (-0.724 billion yuan), and Securities (-0.711 billion yuan) [1][3] Group 2 - The Medical Services sector saw a fund outflow of 0.787 billion yuan, indicating a negative change of -0.33% [3] - The Specialized Equipment sector experienced a fund outflow of 0.727 billion yuan, with a positive change of 0.63% [3] - The Consumer Electronics sector had a fund outflow of 0.724 billion yuan, reflecting a positive change of 0.4% [3] - The Securities sector recorded a fund outflow of 0.711 billion yuan, with a slight negative change of -0.07% [3]

铜周报：短线波动加剧，长期多头趋势不变 研究员： 王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022141 目录 废铜 GALAXY FUTURES 2 宏观方面，美国CPI低于市场预期一度提高了市场对美联储降息的预期，但鲍威尔遭刑事调查引发市场对美联储独立性和鹰派的担忧，短期表现偏鹰，但美联储宽松的货币政策 不会转变。 铜矿 智利Mantoverde（2025年产量7.4万吨）铜矿事件谈判无果，罢工将持续，工人工会在一份声明中表示，劳动主管部门已经通知他们，公司不会再有工会的应急人员来维持设 施运行。2025年Mantoverde铜产量为7.4万金属吨。中国冶炼厂与antogagastat敲定2026年铜精矿长单加工费benchmark为0美元/吨和0美分/磅，国内冶炼厂开始与其他供 应商的长单谈判，传统的矿山供应商更倾向于BM扣减体系，有BM下浮15%-20%，也有BM下浮10-15美元，长单谈判难度依然比较大，进程缓慢。 各地企业正在被有关部门检查企业"反向开票"合规性，不少企业元旦后为避免"反向开票"的户头出现问题，企业需要红冲部分不合规额度，个别企业可能面临超额部分的罚 款，因此周 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/01/19 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/19 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 101770 12910 7.89 三月 100960 12849 7.95 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 7.91 -1695.41 现货出口 -372.26 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/19 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 24820 3227 7.69 三月 24790 3262 5.37 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.32 -2037.21 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/19 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 24030 3137 7.66 三月 23965 3128 7.76 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.34 -2131.20 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/19 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 143850 17657 8.15 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.00 1996.75 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The global economy is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, with rapid capital expansion in technology and renewable energy sectors, while traditional sectors and small to medium enterprises face challenges. This has led to a divergence in prices between non-ferrous metals and traditional energy [1][2] - The overall environment for a comprehensive rise in industrial product prices in 2026 is not favorable, with continued price differentiation between non-ferrous metals and black energy products due to geopolitical risks and low capacity utilization [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Global Demand**: Total global demand remains stable without significant turning points. Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and other economic measures, the elasticity of demand is limited, and long-term interest rates remain high, indicating weak real growth [2][4] - **Price Performance**: The poor price performance in 2025 was primarily due to low capacity utilization rates across major economies, which are still 3-4 percentage points below 2012 peaks. This suggests that even with strong demand, supply can be increased by improving capacity utilization, preventing widespread inflation [5] - **Market Divergence**: The current market shows a pronounced K-shaped divergence, with emerging sectors like chips and renewable energy seeing rapid capital expansion, while traditional sectors struggle. Non-ferrous metals are at historical highs, while traditional energy and black metals are at relative lows [6][7] - **Impact of Energy Transition**: The energy transition has led to significant changes in the global commodity market, with traditional energy markets potentially shifting from scarcity to surplus. The decline in energy prices has resulted in substantial capital outflows, some of which have flowed into precious metals like gold [9][10] Additional Important Insights - **Future Trends**: The K-shaped divergence is expected to continue into 2026, with strong demand for non-ferrous metals driven by technology, while black metals face low capacity utilization. The potential for oil to become a surplus commodity could further influence market dynamics [11] - **Gold Market Dynamics**: Gold has performed well due to multiple factors, including central bank purchases, retail demand, and geopolitical risks. However, the market size has expanded significantly, making further large price increases more challenging [12][14] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Rising geopolitical risks have profound implications for global financial markets, increasing demand for safe-haven assets and benefiting defense and high-end equipment sectors [15][16] - **Long-term Liquidity Pressure**: In 2026, long-term liquidity pressure, particularly related to the Japanese yen, may lead to increased volatility in financial markets as interest rates rise and market conditions change [17]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Steel Industry - Iron ore supply is expected to become more relaxed, with Australian shipments projected to reach a historical high of 960 million tons in 2026, an increase of 24 million tons year-on-year. Brazilian shipments are also expected to rise by approximately 10 million tons. This supply increase supports the cost reduction logic for steel companies, leading to further profit recovery in the steel industry [2][1]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector shows significant signs of valuation recovery, with silver leading the charge. Industrial metals are in the early stages of recovery, while basic and energy metals are at the initial stage of bottom reversal. Short-term recommendations include increasing allocations to copper and aluminum [3][4]. Glass Fiber Sector - The glass fiber sector is experiencing price increases for electronic fabrics due to improved supply-demand dynamics. The unit profit forecast for China Jushi's electronic fabric is expected to rise from 0.7 yuan in 2025 to 1.3 yuan in 2026, potentially reaching 1.5 yuan. This could lead to an annual performance of 4.5 to 5 billion yuan for China Jushi [5][1]. Oil Shipping Sector - The oil shipping sector has seen a significant year-on-year increase in LCC freight rates, now exceeding $110,000, a rise of 87%. This is driven by increased production from South American deep-sea oil fields, OPEC's production policies, and a rebound in China's crude oil imports. The sector is entering a strong prosperity phase [8][1]. Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is witnessing a significant repair in the supply-demand balance. In 2026 and 2027, attention should be paid to sub-industries with high operating rates and limited new capacity, such as chlor-alkali, organic silicon, and PTA polyester filament. Major polyester filament manufacturers have initiated production cuts to alleviate inventory pressure [10][1]. Additional Insights Soda Ash Market - The soda ash market currently faces low price expectations due to overproduction, but demand is better than anticipated. The price has dropped below 1,100 yuan, indicating an oversold condition. Companies like Boyan Chemical are recommended due to their cost advantages and strong growth potential [11][1]. Dual Carbon Policy Impact - The dual carbon policy significantly impacts the chemical industry, with local governments tightening energy consumption limits for new projects. This affects high-energy-consuming sectors like chlor-alkali and organic silicon. Companies benefiting from this policy include Jiahua Energy and Junzheng Group [12][1]. Coal Industry - The coal sector is viewed positively under the backdrop of resource inflation, with a high probability of a bottom reversal by the end of 2026. Key recommendations include Yanzhou Coal and China Coal Energy [19][1]. Price Trends in Coal - As of last week, thermal coal prices have stabilized around 695 yuan, while coking coal prices have increased by 150 yuan to 1,770 yuan. The prices are expected to remain stable due to winter stocking demands [20][1]. Import Trends - In 2025, China’s coal imports fell to 490 million tons, a nearly 10% decrease. The outlook for 2026 suggests continued challenges in increasing imports due to rising domestic costs and supply vulnerabilities from major exporting countries like Indonesia and Australia [21][22][23]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations across various industries.

首先，春季行情进入换挡期。本周市场震荡加大，周三成交量能接近4万亿后，出现大幅回落，显示增量资金流入放缓。 与此同时，本轮春季行情的 两大主线：商业航天和AI 应用出现了明显退潮，对市场人气有一定影响。目前来看，过快的上涨速率不可持续，市场需要找到更为健康、持续的发展道 路。因此，春季行情很有可能进入一个换挡期，速率放缓，投资主线将更聚焦于基本面的确定性和稳健性。 本周市场冲高回落，量能继续增加。 沪指本周三上午创出本轮行情的新高后，逐级向下调整，收盘低于十天均线。深圳成指表现强于沪市，收盘价 仍在五天均线上方。量能方面，本周两市日均量能超过34000亿元，较上周继续增加。本周市场热点主要集中在有色金属和TMT行业。中证2000与沪深 300的比值（归一化处理后）为1.44，较上周继续回升。全周中小盘和科技股涨幅领先。 从运行节奏看，沪指连续反弹后，遇到技术阻力。 沪指于12月中下旬启动上行趋势，本周三上午创出新高后，开始调整。由于成交量出现了快速下 降的情况，市场上行趋势可能会受到一定影响，短期需要关注下方均线的支撑力度。 风险提示： 国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回 ...

锌周报 高慧 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 2026 年 1 月 19 日 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 市场情绪反复切换 锌价高位宽幅震荡 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 上周沪锌主力期价冲高回落。宏观面，特朗普称对欧洲 8 国 加 10%关税，拖累市场风险偏好。国内 12 月新增社融好于预 期，央行释放降息降准信号，货币宽松预期利好经济修复。 基本面看，LME 称 4 月 14 日不接受个别品牌仓单注册，据悉 该类品牌或因审核材料问题而被限制，补交材料或审后可解 除限制，且 12 月 LME 韩国仓库金属特殊高纯度锌库存仅 625 吨，实质性影响有限。国内北方矿山生产淡季，且受前期进 口亏损积压影响，进 ...

消息面上，据中钨在线1月16日最新监测数据，钨产业链核心产品价格继续上涨，再创新高。其中， 65%黑钨精矿价格突破50万元大关，报51万元/标吨，较年初涨10.87%;国内APT(仲钨酸铵)价格报75万 元/吨，较年初涨11.94%；且钨粉价格突破1200元，报价1210元/公斤，较年初涨12.04%。 智通财经APP在《钨价强势突破50万元大关，佳鑫国际资源（03858）年内市值或有望升至千亿？》中 指出，从2025年到2027年，佳鑫国际资源的归母净利润或有超10倍的增长幅度，佳鑫国际资源也由此切 换为成长股，鉴于其业绩的高爆发性以及纯钨矿标的的稀缺性，若给予其2026年30倍的估值，对应佳鑫 国际资源2026年市值或有望升至千亿级别，较当前市值仍有3倍的成长空间。 智通财经APP获悉，佳鑫国际资源(03858)再涨超7%，截至发稿，涨4.93%，报74.5港元，成交额3170.19 万港元，总市值已近350亿港元。 ...