Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The food and beverage industry saw a slight increase of 0.68% from July 14 to July 18, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.41 percentage points [5][10] - The report highlights a cyclical adjustment in the liquor sector, particularly focusing on channel transformation and the establishment of provincial joint venture companies by Moutai to stabilize prices and develop regional cultural liquor [6][8] - The report suggests that consumer demand remains under pressure, and there is a need to focus on innovation in product categories, channels, and consumption scenarios while also identifying undervalued opportunities in traditional consumption areas [8][46] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry experienced a relative return of -3.5% over one month, -14.8% over three months, and -15.0% over twelve months [4] - The industry ranked 14th out of 31 sectors in terms of performance during the specified period [5] Liquor Sector Insights - As of July 18, 2025, the wholesale reference price for Moutai was 1930 RMB per bottle, a decrease of 0.77% from the previous week [6][22] - Moutai's strategy includes forming joint venture companies with local distributors to stabilize prices and develop cultural liquor products, with a target price of over 2000 RMB for these products [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on two main lines: stable demand leaders with strong risk resistance and companies actively innovating in new products, channels, and high-growth scenarios [8][46] - Specific companies to watch include Qingdao Beer, Andeli, Chengde Lulou, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Yanjinpuzi [8][46]

Core Insights - The forum "New Consumption Era: Strategic Transformation and Brand Reshaping" highlights the challenges and opportunities faced by the liquor industry amid global economic changes and the uncertainties of the new consumption era [2][21] - The concept of "Brave New World" emphasizes the need for brands to evolve beyond mere symbols to become representations of comprehensive strength and emotional connection with consumers [2][3] Group 1: Brand Value Reconstruction - "Brave New World" signifies a reconstruction of value, where consumption transcends basic needs, turning liquor into a cultural and emotional experience [2] - The brand's value must resonate with consumers' emotional needs, transforming from functional attributes to a spiritual haven and cultural totem [3] Group 2: Paradigm Revolution - The old era of one-way brand communication is ending, giving way to genuine dialogue and deep resonance with consumers [4] - Trust has become a critical factor in consumer choice, shifting from brand worship to value equality, where consumers demand transparency in value [4] Group 3: Integration of Virtual and Reality - The key to success in the liquor industry lies in creating seamless experiences that connect online and offline channels, enhancing consumer satisfaction [5][6] - New consumption scenarios are emerging, reflecting a shift from uniformity to personalization in consumer experiences [6] Group 4: Consumer Leadership - Consumers are becoming creators in the liquor market, driving trends towards personalized expression and diverse needs [7] - The liquor industry is transitioning from scale-driven competition to value-driven competition, emphasizing the importance of understanding consumer demands [7][8] Group 5: Brand Value Dimensions - Brands must anchor their value in the changing landscape by understanding new consumer demographics and their evolving values [10] - The essence of brand value lies in its ability to resonate with consumers' emotional and cultural needs while maintaining resilience through market fluctuations [10][11] Group 6: Cultural Nurturing - Culture is identified as the soul of the brand, essential for value realization and innovation [13][14] - The liquor industry is moving towards a creative era, where cultural narratives and consumer engagement are pivotal for brand differentiation [13][14] Group 7: Quality Beyond Measure - Quality remains the lifeline of liquor brands, essential for building consumer trust and ensuring brand value realization [15] - Both hard quality (material standards) and soft quality (cultural experience) are crucial for enhancing consumer satisfaction and loyalty [15][16] Group 8: Emotional Resonance - The fragmented and experiential nature of modern consumption necessitates deep consumer insights for effective brand communication [17] - The liquor industry must leverage unique cultural narratives and immersive experiences to create lasting emotional connections with consumers [18][19]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 分析师：杨骥 执业证书号：S1230522030003 yangji@stocke.com.cn 龙头白马持续反弹，大众品 Q2 业绩表现分化 ——食饮行业周报（2025 年 7 月第 3 期） 投资要点 食饮观点：新老消费板块轮动延续，以白酒、乳制品为代表的龙头白马本周 继续反弹；大众品 Q2 业绩表现分化，新消费相关标的 Q2 业绩预期此前持续 调整，但依旧实现快速增长，部分标的受制于传统渠道改革，业绩仍在调整 阶段。综合来看，白酒板块我们认为综合头部酒企谨慎假设下的利润底和高 ROE、高分红、高股息可以推算市值底部区间，当前头部酒企股价下行空间 或有限，具备一定配置价值，基于此当前推荐贵州茅台、山西汾酒、泸州老 窖。新消费短期虽有所回调，但长期动力仍在，下半年蓄势后有望卷土重 来，关注股价低位/低估值及后续有催化的潜力标的，当前推荐卫龙美味、 伊利股份、万辰集团；白酒当前推荐贵州茅台、山西汾酒。 白酒板块：茅台将全力完成年度既定目标，白酒板块当前仍处低位，关注低 位下板块轮动的反弹机会，优选品牌势能较强的香型龙头酒企。我们认为综 合头部酒企谨慎假设下的利润底和高 ...

[Table_Summary] 核心结论: 证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 20 日 [Table_Title] 三家外卖平台被约谈，小商品城六区招标价格创新高 [Table_Title2] 海外周报 ► 三家外卖平台被约谈，鼓励构建消费者、商家、 外卖骑手和平台企业多方共赢的良好生态 事件：7 月 18 日，市场监管总局约谈饿了么、美团、京东 三家平台企业，要求相关平台企业严格遵守《中华人民共 和国电子商务法》《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》 《中华人民共和国食品安全法》等法律法规规定，严格落 实主体责任，进一步规范促销行为，理性参与竞争，共同 构建消费者、商家、外卖骑手和平台企业等多方共赢的良 好生态，促进餐饮服务行业规范健康持续发展。 平台优惠力度和订单数量均有减少。7 月 5 日起，美团、 淘宝闪购等平台开启新一轮外卖大战。据美团数据显示， 7 月 12日 23时36分，美团即时零售日订单量超过1.5亿。 其中，拼好饭单量超过 3500 万，神抢手单量超过 5000 万。据海峡都市报，与网友于 7月12 日发布"20 单单外卖 中 17 单实现'0 元购' ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector as a whole [5]. Core Insights - The actual demand in the liquor industry has significantly decreased in Q2 2025, with companies like Water Well and Jiu Gui Jiu showing early indicators of industry performance through their earnings forecasts [1][18]. - Moutai's establishment of a joint venture and Jiu Gui Jiu's collaboration with Pang Dong Lai for product launches reflect the multi-faceted strategies employed by major liquor companies to mitigate industry pressures and enhance annual performance [1][18]. - The beverage sector is expected to see leading water companies continue to capture market share, with Farmer Spring's market share rapidly recovering, leading to potential upward revisions in profit forecasts [1][18]. - The snack sector is facing short-term challenges due to rising costs and increased expenses, with a focus on new product launches and net profit margin improvements in the second half of the year [1][18]. - The pet sector presents a buying opportunity following recent corrections, with a focus on valuation shifts in the second half of the year [1][18]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Moutai is forming platform companies with provincial distributors to develop local cultural Moutai products, which is expected to stabilize pricing and support annual targets while alleviating pressure on the main product's volume growth [12]. - Water Well reported a 13% decline in revenue and a 57% drop in net profit for H1 2025, with significant Q2 revenue declines attributed to inventory reduction pressures and policy impacts [13]. - Jiu Gui Jiu's net profit for H1 2025 is expected to drop by 90%-93%, with a 43% revenue decline, as the company increases sales expenses and new product promotion efforts [14]. - Hai Tian Wei Ye anticipates rapid overseas growth and is enhancing its market share through localized strategies and channel expansion [15]. - Qia Qia Food's net profit is projected to decrease by 71%-76% in H1 2025, with expectations for improvement in H2 as costs normalize [16]. - Gan Yuan Food's net profit is expected to decline by 55%-56% in H1 2025, with plans to strengthen sales of new and core products in H2 [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on liquor companies that are adjusting their strategies in response to market pressures, particularly those with a safety margin in valuations [18][19]. - In the beverage sector, companies like Farmer Spring and Uni-President China are expected to perform well, while traditional consumer stocks like Moutai and Lu Zhou Lao Jiao are recommended for their recovery potential [19]. - The report highlights opportunities in the snack sector with companies like Qia Qia and Gan Yuan, emphasizing the importance of new product launches and margin improvements [19].

一年一度的年末回馈福利！ 爱喝葡萄酒的今天赚爆了！ 不玩虚的！进口商实实在在的补贴，错过再等一年！ 马蒂•鲁宾（Mart y Rubin）曾说过： 人生zui美莫过于初吻，和初次喝到的那一杯葡萄酒。 在欧洲众多国家中，法国的红酒向来是top！ 聚会上，你要是拿出这样一瓶法国干红，懂行的人在心里都会赞叹你： 业内人士，是个喝家！ 这次为大家推荐的正是一酒难求的 【法国原瓶进口】古堡庄园·南斯歌达AOP干红葡萄酒 红酒中的"爱*仕"级别，送礼倍有面，直接拉满格调！ 先看它 "顶牛" 的背书，你就知道什么叫 离谱大捡漏！ ✅国际进博会力荐法国知名酒业集团：MTE ✅法定产区贝尔热拉克（Bergerac）：世人誉为" 波尔多的后花园 " ✅波尔多 式混酿艺术：梅洛（Merlot）、品丽珠(Cabernet Franc)、赤霞珠（Cabernet Sauv ignon） ✅法国葡萄酒金字塔尖等级：AOP ✅ NO.一瓶一码（全球仅有10万瓶，只有存量，没有增量） ✅每一瓶都有庄主签名！独一无二的象征 来自法国最大酒商之一：MTE International 法国享誉盛名的10大法定产区，其中5个都有他家的酒庄。 世界名 ...

6月29日，胖东来创始人于东来在抖音上透露"酒鬼酒・自由爱"即将面世销售后，股价还在底部震荡的酒鬼酒如同"打了鸡血"，开启了一波凌厉的上涨攻 势。 据Wind数据统计，截至7月16日，酒鬼酒自于东来宣布合作后股价累计上涨18.73%。而除了酒鬼酒外，同期没有一只白酒股的股价涨幅超10%，表现最佳 的泸州老窖在此期间累计涨幅也仅为6.98%，酒鬼酒可谓既赚了眼球，也赢得了市场的广泛关注。 7月14日，酒鬼酒发布的半年度业绩预告如同一颗"重磅炸弹"，彻底"引爆"了资本市场的担忧。酒鬼酒预计上半年营收仅5.6亿元，同比暴跌43%；净利润 仅为800万—1200万元，同比降幅高达90%—93%，创下近10年新低。 【此前报道：】 对此，酒鬼酒解释，上半年受多重因素影响，白酒企业经营进一步承压，马太效应下中小酒企压力更大，经销商回款意愿谨慎。 据不完全统计，宝丰"自由爱"系列产品单日销售量在3000—4000箱，而在节假日可能高达约7000箱，庞大的销售量让合作方宝丰酒业从濒临倒闭变为跻身 清香型酒企的"第二梯队"。 根据行业披露，宝丰酒业通过代工生产"自由爱"在2024年获得约5亿元销售额。 酒类分析师蔡学飞认为：" ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Insights - The beverage sector is currently in its peak season, with a focus on differentiated performance among companies. The report highlights three main investment themes in the liquor segment: leading brands, sustained regional benefits, and recovery-driven stocks [1][2]. - The report notes that the overall retail sales in June grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with the liquor category experiencing a slight decline of 0.7% [2]. - The beer segment faced slight pressure in June, with a year-on-year production decrease of 0.2%. However, the report suggests that the beer market remains in a high-demand season, and emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth products and companies [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report discusses the recent channel reforms initiated by Moutai, aimed at stabilizing prices and enhancing regional cultural product development. This is seen as a positive move for the industry, which has been under pressure due to weak consumption and pricing challenges [2]. - Leading liquor companies such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu are expected to continue gaining market share, while companies like Jiuzi and Luzhou Laojiao are highlighted as potential recovery plays [1][2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - The beer production data indicates a slight decline, attributed to seasonal factors and market conditions. The report encourages investors to focus on companies with strong product lines and growth potential, such as Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer [3]. - KKR's acquisition of an 85% stake in Dayao is noted, with Dayao being recognized for its established market presence and new product launches [3]. Food Sector - The report highlights the ongoing disclosure of mid-year performance forecasts, with companies like Zhou Hei Ya and Hao Xiang Ni showing improvements in profitability due to operational optimizations [4]. - However, companies like Ganyuan and Qiaqia are facing profit pressures, with significant expected declines in net profits for the first half of 2025 [4].

茅台又炸场了！这次不是偷偷涨价，也不是扩产刷屏，而是要把各省经销商绑上"联营战车"——下个月 起，各省经销商头头们牵头成立联营公司，手握本省专属定制酒开发权，号称要"共同维护飞天茅台市 场秩序"，说白了就是要稳住那瓶被炒到2000+的飞天价格。但这事怎么听着这么玄乎？让靠加价卖飞 天赚翻的经销商，自己成立公司来"稳价"，这到底是茅台的"控价神操作"，还是给经销商发的"利润补 偿包"？普通消费者的1499飞天，这次真的有盼头了？ 一、联营公司是个啥？经销商头头们的"新钱袋子" 先得把这事掰扯明白：茅台要搞的"联营公司"，到底是个什么玩意儿？ 说白了，就是茅台和各省经销商的"头头组织"（经销商联谊会）搭伙开公司。既不是茅台独资，也不是 经销商单打独斗，而是"联营"——你出渠道，我出品牌，一起搞钱。最关键的是，这公司手里捏着 个"王炸"：本省定制文化茅台酒的开发权。 啥叫"本省定制文化茅台酒"？举个例子：河南的联营公司，能搞个"豫剧脸谱茅台"，瓶身上画着穆桂英 挂帅；山东的能搞个"泰山封禅茅台"，瓶盖做成五岳独尊的造型；四川的可能整出"熊猫滚滚茅台"，包 装上全是大熊猫啃竹子……反正就是结合各省文化搞"茅台周边"， ...

这是半佛仙人的第1840篇原创 1 两百块，买了个轰碎三观的夜晚，买了个占大便宜的负罪感。 200块，就只花了20 0块。 我现在感觉这钱花得我后背发凉，头皮发麻。 汉庭太可怕了。 被汉庭4 . 0吓坏了。 汉庭，它变了。 它变得陌生了，变得我完全不认识了。 活了这么多年，汉庭在我脑子里就只是睡一觉的地儿。 它的标签是【干净】，是【便捷】，是【到处都有】【随处可见】，但不是【全面】啊。 查了下价格。 emmmmmmm，5万。 考虑酒店用品是商用的，来来回回有这么多人来折腾，是要考虑到耐用性的。 emmmmmmm，这五万要比我自己花五万买的更好。 它的第一重可怕是体验和性价比可怕，吓死我了。 刚入住的时候，路过洗衣房瞟了一眼。 啥？LG商用洗烘一体机？ 不对，我为什么要花五万买个洗烘机？ 所以，我这辈子唯一能用上5万块的洗烘机，居然是在200块的汉庭？ 而且在华住APP上还能看空机位？洗好了还会提醒我？ 不是啊汉庭，2 00块房费还包这个？ 汉庭你确定不是被三体人收购了？确定不是用这个小恩小惠来骗我们地球人？ 这么说吧，哪怕自己在家里洗，水费电费机器折旧，洗一批衣服下来也得七八块了。 要是羽绒服，那几十块是跑不 ...