投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260313 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美联储年内降息预期消退，国内市场股弱债强 海外方面，伊朗新领袖强硬表态继续关闭霍尔木兹海峡、保留报复并威胁攻击中东美军 基地，显示其正将地缘冲突升级为持续性的能源与航运施压；美方则一边为护航做准备，一 边拟通过《琼斯法》短期豁降低能源运输成本，短期核心矛盾仍在海峡通行能否恢复与油运 风险能否被有效控制。伊朗此前袭击两艘油轮后，油价重返 100 美元上方，市场对美联储年 内降息的预期消退，美股低开低走，金银铜延续跌势，美元指数升至 99.7，创逾三个月新高， 10 年期美债收益率站上 4.25%。后续继续关注美伊局势进展及今晚公布的美国 PCE 数据。 国内方面，周四 A 股缩量收跌，红利风格独涨、双创板块领跌，两市成交额小幅缩量至 2.46 万亿，超 3800 只个股收跌，赚钱效应进一步走弱，市场近期活跃度一般，增量资金入 市动能不足。目前中东冲突仍在演绎、海外不确定上升仍对 A 股风险偏好形成压制，短期 市场大概率维持震荡与板块分化格局。债市走 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-03-16 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-03-16 所长 早读 第六轮中美经贸磋商在法国启动 观点分享： 据新华社消息，当地时间 3 月 15 日上午，中美两国经贸团队在法国巴黎开始举行中美 经贸磋商。人民日报钟声：今年是中美关系的"大年"，双方经贸关系能否如世界所盼，延 续稳下来的势头，本轮磋商意义重大。此次谈判的背景微妙，一是美国最高法院裁定部分对 华关税不合法，面临 1750 亿美元退税+利息的财政压力；二是美国企业与农业州强烈要求关 税松动；三是中东冲突推高全球通胀与能源风险，中美都需要稳经济、稳预期。此次谈判的 议题包括关税与 301 调查、 贸易平衡与供应链以及全球规则与多边主义等。对于磋商可能的结果，我们认为，美国 中期选举在即，对华强硬是政治刚需，全面取消关税概率不大；而中方绝不会牺牲发展权从 而接受单方面让步，所以取得重大突破的可能性不大，但谈总比不谈好。 | 所 | 长 | 首 | 推 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 关注指数 | | | | 原油 | ★★★★ | | | ...

Group 1 - The ongoing escalation of the Middle East situation has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, with Brent crude futures surpassing $106 per barrel and WTI crude futures reaching $102.44 per barrel [2][4] - Japan's government has announced the release of 80 million barrels of oil reserves starting March 16, the largest release since the establishment of its national oil reserve system in 1978, aimed at alleviating the impact of rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [6][7] - This week is termed "Super Central Bank Week," with major central banks including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank expected to announce interest rate decisions, with the Fed likely to maintain current rates [8][9] Group 2 - High oil prices are anticipated to pose inflation risks, potentially delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve until the fourth quarter [9][10] - Goldman Sachs has projected that Brent crude prices will average over $100 per barrel in March, with a possible decline to around $85 in April, depending on the duration of energy transport disruptions [5] - The release of strategic oil reserves by multiple countries, including members of the International Energy Agency, is part of a coordinated effort to address the oil supply crisis [7]

Group 1 - Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that multiple countries have requested safe passage for their vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy route where approximately 20% of global oil transportation occurs [4] - Araghchi mentioned that the Iranian military ultimately decides on the passage of vessels, and some ships from different countries have already been allowed safe passage [4] - An Indian official confirmed that two oil tankers heading to India successfully passed through the Strait on the same day [4] Group 2 - U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright expressed optimism that the current conflict could end in the coming weeks, potentially leading to a rebound in supply and a decrease in prices [5][6] - Wright indicated that the U.S. government was aware of the potential economic impacts before the conflict began, acknowledging short-term disruptions and price increases domestically [6] - He mentioned that other countries are expected to assist the U.S. in ensuring the safety of the Strait of Hormuz, with military forces working together to reopen the passage [6] Group 3 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that part of the emergency oil reserves would be released immediately in Asia to address supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict [7][8] - The IEA highlighted that the release of oil to Europe and the Americas would not commence until the end of March, while the Asian market is prioritized due to its high dependency on Middle Eastern oil [9] - IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasized the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz to restore stable energy flows, despite the immediate supply boost [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. oil industry executives are warning that the energy crisis triggered by the situation in Iran is likely to worsen, with potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz leading to significant market volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Concerns - Executives from ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips expressed concerns during White House meetings about the potential for oil prices to rise sharply if speculators drive prices higher, which could lead to tight refined oil supplies [1]. - The U.S. crude oil price has surged from $87 per barrel to $99 per barrel within a week, indicating a significant market reaction to geopolitical tensions [2]. - Many in the oil industry believe that existing policy options may have limited effectiveness in alleviating the crisis, with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz seen as the only viable long-term solution [2][3]. Group 2: Government Actions - The White House is considering multiple measures to lower oil prices, including easing sanctions on Russian oil, releasing emergency oil reserves, and potentially increasing oil transport from Venezuela [2]. - A senior government official acknowledged that while oil prices are expected to continue rising, the measures available to mitigate this are limited, and the Pentagon has indicated that reopening the Strait could be feasible in a matter of weeks [3]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - Some oil executives are preparing for prolonged high oil prices, which may boost short-term profits but could ultimately harm the industry and the economy by reducing consumer demand for fuel [4]. - The oil industry has been attempting to break the cycle of boom and bust over the past decade, with high prices potentially leading to reduced consumption and subsequent price drops, forcing producers to cut output and costs [4].

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a decline, with WTI crude oil dropping 1.34% to $97.95 per barrel and Brent crude falling below $100 per barrel, down 0.92% [1] - Gold and silver prices showed volatility, with spot gold rebounding to $5020 after briefly dipping below $5000, while spot silver increased by 0.81% to $81 per ounce [3] Group 2 - Iran's President emphasized that the instability in the Middle East is due to hostile actions from Israel and the U.S., while French President Macron called for the restoration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [5] - The Japanese government announced the release of 80 million barrels of oil reserves starting March 16, the largest release since the establishment of its national oil reserve system in 1978, aimed at alleviating rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East [5] - Industry insiders indicated that the future of oil prices will depend on whether former President Trump will withdraw from conflict, suggesting that a resolution is necessary for oil markets to stabilize [5]

据知情人士透露，在当地时间3月11日举行的一系列白宫会议以及近期与美国能源部长赖特、内政部长伯格姆的沟通中，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙和康菲石油 的首席执行官发出警告称，经霍尔木兹海峡的能源运输受阻，将继续给能源市场带来剧烈波动。 此外，伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴在社交媒体"电报"的账号15日深夜发布消息，重申伊朗无论如何都"将向敌人索取赔偿"。 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队当地时间15日晚发布公告，称伊朗革命卫队海军当天清晨同时对美国四个空军基地实施了精确而毁灭性的打击。 最新消息。 据美国方面15日消息，美国政府打算近日宣布组建所谓霍尔木兹海峡"护航联盟"。美方知情官员称，一些国家同意为通行这一国际石油海运关键航道的船 只提供护航。 这些官员表示，护航行动是否在美国和以色列停止对伊朗的大规模军事行动前就开始，仍在讨论中。 不过，德国外交部长瓦德富尔当天表示，德国不会参与在霍尔木兹海峡保护商船的国际军事行动。 值得一提的是，近日美国石油行业高管纷纷警告特朗普政府，由伊朗局势引发的能源危机很可能进一步加剧。 英首相与美总统通话 提及重新开放霍尔木兹海峡重要性 当地时间15日，英国首相府发言人表示，英国首相斯塔默当日与美国总统特朗普通 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the focus on five major industrial directions post the Two Sessions: expanding domestic demand consumption, smart economy new infrastructure, future energy, unifying the market against involution, and increasing the proportion of direct financing [1][6] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines 16 major strategic tasks and 109 significant projects, highlighting a proactive approach to external and internal economic support, which is expected to positively influence the capital market by nurturing quality investment targets [3][6] - The current geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to suppress high valuation sectors while enhancing the relative advantage of low valuation sectors, suggesting a shift in investment focus towards traditional manufacturing and resource sectors [5][6] Group 2 - The Chinese asset market is anticipated to undergo further revaluation due to its strategic stability, strong industrial competitiveness, and progress in domestic economic transformation [7] - The recent influx of southbound capital into Hong Kong stocks indicates that major indices have reached historically low valuation levels, suggesting a high cost-performance ratio for investment [12] - The oil sector is highlighted as having revaluation potential due to rising international oil prices driven by geopolitical risks, with recommendations to focus on upstream oil and gas extraction companies [13] Group 3 - The domestic bond market is viewed positively, with expectations of stable liquidity and limited inflation risks, despite potential adjustments in export growth rates [22] - The demand for bank bond allocations is increasing due to improved deposit growth and weak credit performance in February, indicating a downward pressure on bond yields [21] - The recommendation to diversify investments into equities and oil assets is emphasized, particularly in light of rising oil prices and the associated inflationary pressures [24]

Core Viewpoint - Oil executives indicated that the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a significant increase in oil prices [1] Industry Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, and any disruption could have far-reaching effects on oil markets [1] - Executives expressed concerns that such a closure would exacerbate existing price volatility in the oil sector [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the interplay between the U.S. debt situation and China's supply capabilities, suggesting that the U.S. will use future diluted dollars to purchase physical goods from China, which helps control domestic inflation while providing an outlet for China's excess capacity [1] - The current state of "stagflation" in the U.S. is highlighted, indicating a need for inflation to dilute massive debt levels, while China is in a "anti-inflation" phase, exporting strong supply capabilities globally [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that approximately 6.5 million barrels per day of oil production are currently offline, with expectations of supply cuts nearing 12 million barrels per day next week due to geopolitical tensions [3] - The volatility of oil prices is emphasized, with the next critical signal not being the final price level but rather when the volatility of oil prices stabilizes, which will have a more certain impact on various asset classes [3] Group 3 - Financial data from February shows a social financing increment of 2.38 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations, primarily supported by corporate credit growth and reduced off-balance-sheet financing [5] - New RMB loans amounted to 900 billion yuan, with corporate medium to long-term loans being a highlight, while M2 growth year-on-year was 9%, with the M1-M2 spread narrowing to 3.1 percentage points [5][6] Group 4 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has been transformed into actionable, quantifiable, and assessable arrangements, with a focus on major tasks and policy measures condensed into 23 columns [10] - The article compares the "14th Five-Year Plan" with the "15th Five-Year Plan," noting marginal changes in quantitative indicators, such as GDP growth targets and R&D expenditure growth rates [11] Group 5 - The article notes that the nominal cycle's recovery has not led to a sustainable rise in inflation expectations, indicating that mid-term real interest rates may not decline [7] - The impact of rising oil prices on stock market performance is discussed, with Brent crude oil prices and related indices showing significant increases, while liquidity tightening effects are reflected in rising U.S. Treasury yields and declines in major stock indices [7] Group 6 - The article highlights that the current geopolitical tensions and high oil prices are likely to influence the A-share market, with a focus on sectors benefiting from inflation and demand rigidity [15][16] - It mentions that the market is expected to transition from an "emotion-driven" phase to a "fundamentals-driven" phase, with earnings becoming a core anchor for future market movements [15]