油价在亚洲早盘盘整。XS.com的Antonio Di Giacomo表示，中东紧张局势仍是关注焦点，不过其对油价 的影响有限。这位高级市场分析师表示，尽管美国和伊朗之间存在摩擦，且最近的外交沟通释放出矛盾 的信号，但市场对基本的供需因素表现出更大的敏感性。该分析师称，2026年原油消费前景已经恶化， 并援引预测指出需求增长将更为温和。近月西得州中质油 期货基本持平于每桶62.85美元；近月布伦特 原油期货持稳于每桶67.53美元。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to the Iran situation, with the monthly spread declining and the North Sea Brent basis falling to $1.005 per barrel. The first round of US-Iran nuclear negotiations lasted about six hours, and the second round is expected in the next few days. Netanyahu will meet with Trump next Wednesday to discuss the Iran issue. Iran stated it does not want a regional war. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased this week, with US commercial crude inventories declining by 3.455 million barrels and refined oil inventories by 5.553 million barrels due to the cold wave. Saudi Arabia adjusted the official selling prices of Arabian light crude for March. Singapore's refined oil inventories increased, while ARA's crude and refined oil inventories decreased. Domestic gasoline and diesel inventories increased. Short - term oil prices are still affected by the Iran situation, and the global crude oil supply - demand fundamentals in the first and second quarters remain in a surplus state, not supporting high valuations [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is skeptical about the quality of any agreement with Iran, covering nuclear issues, ballistic missiles, and Iran's proxy problems. He also said Trump might reach a good agreement with Iran [3][4] - The Trump administration secretly shipped about 6,000 Starlink terminals to Iran after the Iranian regime's crackdown on demonstrations last month to help anti - regime activists bypass the internet shutdown, though it's illegal in Iran [4] - The IEA lowered the forecast of global oil demand growth in 2026 to 850,000 barrels per day from 930,000 barrels per day in January's report, while keeping the large supply - surplus estimate basically unchanged. OPEC's research department predicted a growth of 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [4] 2. EIA Report (02/06 Week) - US crude oil exports decreased by 308,000 barrels per day to 3.739 million barrels per day [14] - US domestic crude oil production increased by 498,000 barrels to 13.713 million barrels per day [14] - Commercial crude inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 8.53 million barrels to 429 million barrels, a 2.03% increase [14] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.827 million barrels per day, a 2.36% increase year - on - year [14] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories decreased by 100,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, a 0.0% decrease [14] - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.805 million barrels per day, an increase of 604,000 barrels per day from the previous week [14] 3. Inventory - No detailed summary information provided other than mentioned in the weekly view 4. Weekly View - Crude oil prices were affected by the Iran situation, with monthly spreads and North Sea Brent basis declining. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations were held, and the second round is expected. Netanyahu will discuss the Iran issue with Trump. Iran doesn't want a regional war. Global oil inventories decreased, and Saudi Arabia adjusted oil prices. Singapore, ARA, and domestic inventories had different trends. Short - term oil prices are affected by the Iran situation, and the first - and second - quarter fundamentals are in surplus [5]

从油价走势关联到油气产业，石油产业链主要分为上游的勘探、开采、生产，以及下游的炼化环节，若通过指数对油气产业进行布局，产业链的上中下 游其实都会涉及到。整体来看，当下布局石油板块的股票，相当于买入油价的看涨期权。原因在于，无论是上游的开采环节，还是炼化、油服设备、油 运等领域，都会受到油价上涨的整体情绪提振，市场对各环节的未来表现也会形成向好预期。从康波周期来看，正如刚才所说，在这一商品大周期中， 原油价格相对滞涨，整个油气产业都在紧盯油价的上行趋势，筹备进一步的产业投资，同时对后续盈利改善抱有期待。此外，无论是投资者还是产业 端，都对原油供给过剩的叙事真实性存有一定怀疑，这也让石油产业链的上中下游都显现出一定的投资机会。 再看中证油气产业指数的历史表现，该指数自基日以来，业绩表现跑赢市场主流同类指数，尤其在行业景气上行周期，具备较强的上涨弹性。2008年、 2014年的行业周期中，该指数的上行弹性均优于其他同类指数，能为投资者带来更好的投资体验。需要注意的是，指数的过往业绩不代表未来表现，投 资者需谨慎选择投资标的。 | 指数代码 | 指数简称 | 近五年 | 近三年 | 近一年 | | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a decline on the 12th, with significant drops in both New York and London markets [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of the close on the 12th, light crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.79, settling at $62.84 per barrel, representing a decrease of 2.77% [1] - April delivery Brent crude oil futures on the London market decreased by $1.88, closing at $67.52 per barrel, which is a decline of 2.71% [1]

从去年到今年年初，市场对原油供需的整体预期相对谨慎，对于2026年原油供需整体的判断，核心在于 欧佩克是否会重启增产，但近期市场对这一问题的关注度已有所下降。 此前，EIA、IEA等机构均对原油供需做出了相关预测，这些机构普遍认为，疫情后被压制的原油需求 已逐步释放，消费增速也有所回升。但供给端的增幅依旧较大，欧佩克及非欧佩克产油国，包括近期的 委内瑞拉，均存在增产预期。此前市场的普遍预期是在供需宽松的背景下，今年上半年原油市场将消化 累库压力，叠加全球经济弱复苏，油价有望在年内出现反弹。 但当前市场出现了不同的观点。若依据这些机构此前的预测，去年原油市场应处于大幅过剩状态，但实 际库存数据并未体现出这一过剩特征，具体来看，去年机构预测的过剩幅度远高于实际的累库规模，这 一偏差的原因何在？尤其是去年，市场经常引用相关机构的供需预测数据，彼时机构预计原油市场每日 存在三四百万桶的供给过剩，若这一过剩规模真实存在，库存数据理应出现相应的累积。但从一些外资 机构整理的数据来看，当前无论是陆上商业库存，还是海上浮仓、在途原油的规模，均明显低于模型测 算的理论水平。 首先，机构预测的每日三四百万桶的供给过剩在实际市场中 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that geopolitical tensions and inventory risks have reversed the market consensus on falling oil prices, with recent oil price movements being primarily driven by emotional trading [1][2] - Extreme winter weather in the U.S. has increased heating demand and disrupted oil production and refining, leading to a substantial contraction in physical oil supply, thus supporting international oil prices [1] - Recent supply disruptions, such as the interruption of operations at the Caspian pipeline and power outages at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field, have also provided support for international oil prices [1] Group 2 - The U.S.-Iran negotiations have introduced volatility in oil prices, with initial diplomatic talks potentially seen as bearish, but subsequent news of possible breakdowns in talks led to a surge in oil prices [2] - The ongoing geopolitical struggle between the U.S. and Iran is expected to continue affecting international oil prices due to significant differences in their core demands [2] - The shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz is critical, as approximately 20% to 30% of global oil maritime trade passes through this route, and any disruption could significantly impact global oil supply and prices [3] Group 3 - The current geopolitical risks, particularly the U.S.-Iran situation, are the main focus, while other regional conflicts have temporarily subsided [4] - The U.S. has historically acted to suppress oil prices to alleviate inflation and weaken Russia's position in the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but this influence is diminishing [4][5] - As the midterm elections approach, the U.S. may have less motivation to suppress oil prices, potentially leading to a rebound in oil prices [5] Group 4 - Recent analyses suggest that the oil market is experiencing a shift, with several institutions raising their oil price forecasts, indicating a potential upward trend in oil prices [5] - The first and second quarters typically see a strengthening trend in oil prices due to policy implementations and geopolitical events, although this calendar effect should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions [6] - The current upward trend in oil prices is supported by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and potential adjustments in OPEC policies, with expectations of a rebound in oil prices as high-cost production begins to exit the market [8]

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 13 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI | 主力 | 64.2 | 64.89 | 65.83 | 64.15 | 1.45 | 28.89 | | Brent | 主力 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market continues to oscillate, with the market awaiting the clarification of geopolitical situations. The IEA predicts a supply surplus of over 370,000 barrels per day in the global crude oil market in 2026 [2]. - The weekly production of the chemical industry generally increased in the week approaching the Spring Festival, and the weekly operating rate of Chinese refineries also showed an upward trend. The probability of significant market fluctuations before the festival is low. It is recommended that investors hold light positions during the holiday [2]. - Overall, coal prices are stabilizing, while crude oil and chemical prices continue to oscillate and consolidate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are fluctuating, and risks remain high around the holiday. The fundamentals of the current crude oil market are not optimistic, with high inventory levels. Geopolitical factors dominate the price fluctuations, and the market risks are relatively large during the Spring Festival. The short - term outlook is for oscillation [7]. - **Asphalt**: The tight supply of raw materials is gradually easing, and the futures price is oscillating. The long - term valuation of asphalt is expected to decline as the supply of heavy oil is expected to be abundant in the future, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price still has a relatively high geopolitical premium. The long - term supply increase of heavy oil will put pressure on the price, and the short - term focus is on the progress of the US - Iran negotiations [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the upward oscillation of crude oil. Although it faces some negative factors, its current valuation is low, and it will fluctuate with crude oil [10]. - **PX**: The demand support before the festival is insufficient. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased, and the price has回调 in the short term. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **PTA**: The cost support is insufficient, and the price is in a range - bound consolidation. The seasonal inventory accumulation pressure is large, but the processing fee still has some support in the short term [12]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price oscillation is mainly affected by crude oil prices and market sentiment. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the short term, and the market has a large divergence in the Q2 fundamentals [13]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has become marginally looser. The upward momentum has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The import volume in the second quarter has been revised downwards, and there is a weak repair expectation for supply - demand. The price has limited downside [17]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Both supply and demand have decreased, and the trading is light. The price will follow the movement of upstream products [21]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The volatility has narrowed, and the trading atmosphere has declined. The price will follow the cost fluctuations [22]. - **Methanol**: The coastal trading has been suspended before the festival, and the inventory discharge in the inland is coming to an end. It is expected to oscillate and consolidate [23]. - **Urea**: The pre - festival orders are coming to an end, and the sustainability of sentiment boost may be limited. The supply is stable at a high level, and the demand has the expectation of a peak season after the Spring Festival [25]. - **LLDPE**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the long holiday. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the focus is on the return of demand after the festival [27]. - **PP**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the festival. It is advisable to hold light positions. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [28]. - **PL**: Supported by the spot market, it oscillates. The supply increase is limited, and the downstream demand in the off - season has limited support [29]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak expectations, it oscillates. The market sentiment has weakened, and the support from "export rush" has diminished [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: The comprehensive profit is poor, and it weakly stabilizes. The chlorine - alkali profit is poor, but the futures price has a high premium, and it is expected to oscillate before the festival [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different varieties are given, such as the spreads between PP and 3MA, TA and EG, etc., along with their changes [36]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the catalog mentions monitoring for multiple varieties, no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, featured index, and plate index are presented. The comprehensive index shows an upward trend, with the energy index having a daily increase of 1.19%, a 5 - day increase of 2.79%, a 1 - month increase of 4.56%, and a year - to - date increase of 8.50% [276][277].

他称，大部分原油被运往美国炼油厂加工，相关销售收入已移交给委内瑞拉临时政府。 微信编辑 | 夏木 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 2026.02. 13 本文字数：262，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 封图 | 央视新闻 委瑞内拉炼油厂 当地时间2月12日，美国能源部长克里斯·赖特表示，美国目前控制的委内瑞拉石油销售规模已累计超 过十亿美元，预计在未来几个月内还将为美方带来约五十亿美元收入。 推荐阅读 比尔·盖茨再次访华，直面"爱泼斯坦争议" ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 | 讲 | | | | 期货主力合约 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | है | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 持仓量 | 持仓走势 | | 每 | 中国SC原油期货 | 456.30 | -5.14 | 43092 | | | H | 美国WT原油期货 | 62.84 | -2.77 | 144000 | | | 信 | 英国BRENT原油期货 | 67.52 | -2.71 | 511042 | | | ਜਿੰ | 美国RBOB汽油期货 | 2.1436 | -2.67 | 115000 | | | | 英国ICE柴油期货 | 675.00 | -2.91 | 193299 | | 后市观点 油价大跌，因市场对美伊谈判可能达成协议做出反应，SC原油夜盘跌幅更是超5%，中国马上进入一年 最长假期促使部分资金选择离场放大了跌幅。油价大跌同时，金银及美股同样出现大跌，金融市场风险 偏好再次降温，也助推了油价调整力度，显然一周前的暴跌余震仍在，过去几天我们报告中反复提醒了 油 ...