大和看好公司小灵便型干散货船及超灵便型船只，在2025年第四季日均净租金按季度分别提升至每日 12,380及14,060美元(分别已有72%及87%的营运日被锁定);2025年前九个月次要散货及谷物运输需求改 善，同比分别增长4%及下降9%(对比2025年上半年的同比增长3%及下降13%)。对于2026年，其小灵便 型干散货船及超灵便型船只营运日合约分别只有8%及24%被锁定，相关合约日均净租金为每日9,790及 13,200美元。 大和表示，中国于10月10日宣布对美国相关船只增加港口费用，认为干散货市场将面对来自中国港口费 用增加的最大潜在影响，因为中国于2024年占全球干散货进口40%(受影响船只范围尚未明确，因美国 相关船只定义不明)。总体而言，大和视中国港口费用增加，为推动干散货运价上升的积极推动因素， 并认同公司在应对不确定营运环境的积极主动性。 智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，上调太平洋航运(02343)今明两年每股盈利预测5%至13%，重 申"买入"评级，因估值不高且持续回购股份;并基于今明两年1倍市净率(原本0.9倍)，上调12个月目标价 至3港元，原本目标价为2.65港元。 太平洋航运 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China, highlighting Trump's contradictory stance on tariffs and the subsequent Chinese countermeasures, which could have significant implications for the shipping industry and broader economic relations [2] Group 1: Tariff Policies - Trump acknowledged that his tariff policies could harm the U.S. economy, yet he imposed a new port fee of $50 per net ton on Chinese ships, amounting to $5 million for a 100,000-ton vessel [2] - In response, China introduced a special port fee of 400 RMB per net ton, with exemptions for certain situations, effectively countering the U.S. move [2] Group 2: Economic Impact - The U.S. shipping assets are valued at over $116.4 billion, with Wall Street controlling 40% of the fleet, indicating a significant financial burden from the new fees [2] - The article notes that inflation could rise, costing consumers an additional $30 billion annually due to these tariffs [2] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The U.S. shipbuilding capacity is only 1/230th of China's, raising questions about the feasibility of the U.S. maintaining its aggressive stance [2] - China's countermeasures not only serve as a lesson to the U.S. but also attract global shipowners to consider Chinese shipbuilding options [2] Group 4: Political Context - The article suggests that Trump's actions may be influenced by electoral pressures, questioning whether his acknowledgment of tariff failures is genuine or a strategic move for future negotiations [2]

在百年变局之下，全球经贸格局深度重塑，产业链供应链不稳定性加剧，外部环境"风高浪急"。中国乃至全球航运业何以延续增长，又该如何穿越"风浪"， 为外贸提供支撑？ "风雨交加，能见度极低"被用来形容当前国际航运业所处的"天气"。 在10月19日举行的"2025北外滩国际海运论坛"上，多方以"在世界变局中发展航运新质生产力"为主题，就航运领域当前的"天气"与未来航向展开探讨。 当前"天气" 海事咨询机构德路里董事总经理蒂姆·鲍尔用"风雨交加，能见度极低"来形容当前国际航运业所处的"天气"。 他认为，影响"天气"的主要有四个核心要素。首先是全球经济。国际货币基金组织（IMF）在最新评估中指出，今年全球经济增长率为3.2%，明年为3.1%。 可以说，尽管挑战重重，全球贸易仍在持续增长。其次是能源转型，这不仅意味着未来贸易结构将发生巨大变化，也意味着需要在燃料选择上做出艰难抉 择。第三是新船订单量，"想了解某一航运领域的前景，只需看其新船订单量占现有船队规模的比例"。基于数据变化，明年及后年的集装箱航运业将面临压 力，并可能在2026年出现亏损。 这也意味着，在全球贸易持续增长且各领域需求保持温和增长的大背景下，贸易摩擦 ...

大和上调太平洋航运今明两年每股盈利预测5%至13%，重申"买入"评级，因估值不高且持续回购股 份；并基于今明两年1倍市净率(原本0.9倍)，12个月目标价从2.65港元上调至3港元。 大和发表研报指，太平洋航运公布2025年第三季营运数据，主要亮点包括：公司的小灵便型干散货船日 均净租金(TCE)按年下降15%至每日11680美元，而超灵便型则按年增长10%，至每日13410美元。 大和看好公司小灵便型干散货船及超灵便型船只，在2025年第四季日均净租金按季度分别提升至每日 12380及14060美元(分别已有72%及87%的营运日被锁定)。另外，大和视中国港口费用增加为推动干散 货运价上升的积极推动因素，并认同公司在应对不确定营运环境的积极主动性。 ...

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪， 9 月多 家快递公司"量价齐升" 航运方面，中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪，集运远洋航线运价上 涨。航空方面沃兰特 VE25-100 eVTOL 成功完成首轮试飞，三大航 9 月运 营数据释放积极信号。物流与交通新业态方面，京东物流与宁德时代达成战 略合作，9 月多家快递公司"量价齐升"。 核心观点 ①中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪，集运远洋航线运价上涨。10 月 16 日，上海航运交易所发布的 CTFI 指数报 1791.28 点，较 10 月 9 日上 涨 27.3%。本周 VLCC 市场中东航线 11 月初货盘陆续进场，国际政治 与贸易消息对市场情绪影响明显，美国宣布对中国原油码头实施制裁， 中国宣布反制措施对美资船舶征收对等港口费，短期内加剧中美航运关 系紧张的担忧，推升了市场的避险情绪。随着中国交通运输部发布的关 于对美船舶征收特别港务费的实施细则落地，中国建造船舶可豁免缴纳 该费用的条款，成交运价也在大幅上涨后高位企稳。欧线方面，本周运 输需求总体稳 ...

2025年10月20日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFI大幅上涨，但月底运价仍小幅下行，盘面宽幅震荡，不建议加仓,设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 10月13日 | 10月17日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1031.8点, 较上期下跌1.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 956.45点, 较上期上涨16.79% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 862.48点, 较上期下跌1.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 803.21点，较上期上涨14.96% | | 10月17日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1254.46点, 较上期上涨48.56% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1310.32点，较上期上涨 149.90点 | 10月17日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1145USD/TEU,较上期上涨7.2% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 973.11点，较上期下跌4.1% | | 上海出口集 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", specifically "oscillating weakly" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The EC of the container shipping index shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness due to factors such as the Gaza peace talks and the deterioration of Sino - US relations. The spot freight rate has a mixed impact, with price increases planned but also uncertainties. Political and economic factors are complex, including the progress of the Gaza cease - fire agreement, potential tariff adjustments, and diplomatic meetings. The supply of shipping capacity is neutral, with changes in weekly average capacity deployment in different months and overall loading rates lower than in previous years. The demand is also neutral, with a differentiation in loading rates among shipping alliances. The first round of price support in late October has initially stopped the decline, and the market has entered the second round in early November, with more price - support attempts in the next two months. However, future trends still depend on changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and the situation of empty sailings in November [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impacts** - **Spot Freight Rate**: It has both positive and negative impacts. In late October, the overall price increase was expected to be between 1800 - 2000, but finally landed at 1500 - 1800, and the price increase notice for November is around 2500 [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: There are many uncertainties. For example, the implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement has core issues to be resolved, Egypt has suffered shipping losses due to Houthi attacks, the US may adjust tariffs, and there are diplomatic meetings to prevent the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: It is neutral. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 305,000, 250,000 in October, 280,000 in November, and 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than in previous years [3] - **Demand**: It is neutral. There is a differentiation in loading rates among alliances. PA + MSC has a relatively low loading rate and a higher probability of price cuts, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillating weakly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is oscillating; for arbitrage, it is on hold. Risks to focus on include geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - **Spot Market**: There are data charts showing the trends of European line index, US West line index, US East line index, and Mediterranean line index, as well as the spot quotes of Maersk's European line [6][7][8][9][11] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data charts showing the order volume and new - order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [14] - **Delivery Volume**: There are data charts showing the delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [17][19] - **Demolition Volume**: There are data charts showing the demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [18][20] - **Future Delivery**: There are data charts showing the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities in different time periods [23][25][26] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: There are data charts showing the ship - breaking prices of container ships with different loading capacities and the new - building price index and its year - on - year change [30] - **New - Building Ship Price**: There are data charts showing the new - building price index and the new - building prices of container ships with different loading capacities [30][32] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: There are data charts showing the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand prices of container ships with different loading capacities and ages [36][38][40][42] - **Existing Shipping Capacity of Container Ships** - There are data charts showing the total existing shipping capacity, the existing shipping capacity by loading capacity, the existing shipping capacity of ships over 25 years old, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, the average age, and the average age by loading capacity [45][46][48][49][52][54] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)** - There are data charts showing the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, the shipping capacity deployment of PA + MSC, GEMINI, MSC, and OCEAN in different weeks [60][62][64][66][68] - **Container Ships with Desulfurization Towers** - There are data charts showing the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, the number and proportion of container ships being installed with desulfurization towers, the average age and duration of retrofitting desulfurization towers, and the average speed of container ships [71][74][75][77] - **Idle Shipping Capacity** - There are data charts showing the idle shipping capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, number of ships, and proportion, the idle shipping capacity by loading capacity, the hot - idle shipping capacity, and the shipping capacity of ships being retrofitted with desulfurization towers [79][80]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current spot market for container shipping has a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with geopolitical and tariff issues remaining uncertain. The short - term futures price is likely to show a wide - range oscillatory trend. The market should continue to monitor the situation in the Middle East and the development of Sino - US relations [1]. - In the near - term, although the spot quotes for the European route in November and the SCFI European route have rebounded, the cargo volume in the spot market is still insufficient. Considering geopolitical risks and uncertain macro - sentiment, the futures price is more likely to continue to oscillate or oscillate slightly stronger [2]. - In the long - term, the situation in the Middle East is still uncertain. Any significant change in the Gaza cease - fire process or the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea will have a significant impact on the futures price. Also, the peak - season characteristics of the European container shipping market have been vague in the first eight months of this year, and the demand support in the peak season may be weak [5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Factors and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Factors** - The core contradiction affecting the EC price trend this week is that shipping companies announced price increase letters for November, but some later reduced quotes at the end of October. The upward trend of the futures price is due to major shipping companies' price increase announcements for November and Maersk's successful price support in mid - to - late October, which boosted market confidence. The downward trend is because some major shipping companies lowered quotes in late October, reducing the futures price valuation [1]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations** - **Market Positioning**: The overall strategy is to continue with intraday short - term trading. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range, with short - term support between 1500 - 1550 and resistance between 1700 - 1750. Traders can stay on the sidelines for the spot - futures (basis) strategy. For the arbitrage (inter - delivery) strategy, the previous long 10 - short 12 contract arbitrage can be held, but future actions should be cautious due to geopolitical and tariff uncertainties [13]. - **Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations** - For companies with full shipping capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1700 - 1750 to lock in profits. - For shipping companies concerned about rising freight rates and increased transportation costs, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1450 - 1500 to pre - determine booking costs [11]. - **Basic Data Overview** - The FBX comprehensive route index increased by 21.23% week - on - week, the CICFI decreased by 2.16%, the SCFI increased by 12.92%, the NCFI increased by 16.79%, the CCFI decreased by 4.11%, and the CFFI decreased by 4.99%. The SCFIS European route decreased by 1.40%, the SCFIS US - West route decreased by 1.64%, the SCFI European route increased by 7.21%, the SCFI US - West route increased by 31.88%, and the SCFI US - East route increased by 16.35% [12]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information - **Bullish Information** - Sino - US trade representatives held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations soon. - CMA CGM and Hapag - Lloyd announced price increase letters for November for Asian - to - Nordic and Far - East - to - European routes respectively. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the Gaza war will not end until Hamas is disarmed and Gaza is "demilitarized", and the US accused Hamas of planning new attacks [24]. - **Bearish Information** - SeaLead and CMA CGM reformed and upgraded their routes, respectively. - The PA alliance lowered its offline freight rates to $1500/FEU [25]. 3.3 Market Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Flow** - The container shipping index (European route) futures (EC) showed a wide - range oscillatory trend this week due to changes in shipping company quotes. Technically, the short - term moving average crossed below the long - term moving average, indicating a short - term downward expectation. The main positions of container shipping futures had no significant changes, but the profitable positions and foreign net short positions increased slightly, showing a relatively bearish market sentiment [26]. - **Basis Structure** - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index Settlement (SCFIS) for the European route continued to decline, with a significant narrowing of the month - on - month decline to 1.40%, closing at 1031.80 points. The main contract shifted to EC2512, closing at 1654.70 points on Friday. The basis rate decreased, and caution is needed for hedging at the current level [30]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread Structure** - The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2510 - 2602, and EC2512 - 2602 were - 557.8 points, - 375.1 points, and 182.7 points respectively. Due to shipping companies' price increase announcements for November and partial reduction of October quotes, the spreads of EC2510 - 2512 and EC2510 - 2602 widened. The previous 10 - 12 contract long - short arbitrage can be held, but future actions should be cautious [34]. 3.4 Profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, major shipping companies such as COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Maersk, and CMA CGM Group had good profit and revenue performance, while some companies like ONE and Yang Ming Marine Transport saw a significant reduction in profits compared to the same period last year. Most shipping companies still made a profit, indicating that the current market is not bad. - For the second half of the year, shipping companies believe that uncertainty has increased, and they will operate more cautiously, focusing on cost control and potentially affecting freight rates through supply - side and cost - side measures [36].

人民财讯10月20日电，以"开放创新合作，共促航运服务业高质量发展"为主题的北外滩国际航运论坛金 融与保险论坛10月20日在沪举行。大连海事大学校长单红军表示，为破解金融赋能航运业高质量发展政 策缺位，建议设立国家级航运产业投资基金，采用母子基金架构，撬动社会资本，投向绿色、智能等关 键领域。同时，建议设立专项财政资金，对绿色船舶等提供贷款贴息、退税等精准激励。 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is expected to focus on reform in areas such as building a modern industrial system, a unified national market, and improving social security. There may be further emphasis on green development, and attention is paid to whether a GDP growth target will be set [1]. - The stock index is entering a direction - selection phase. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and external funds may flow in. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter and become more balanced [2][10]. - Precious metals are strengthening due to factors like trade tensions, potential Fed policy changes, and deteriorating US fiscal conditions. However, there may be adjustments after rapid rises [3][19]. - For oils and fats, palm oil exports are growing, providing some price support, but the market may be pressured by macro - disturbances [3][28]. Section Summaries I. General Situation and Outlook - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to be released around October 28. The macro - economy shows positive trends in exports, CPI, and PPI. There are weather and climate phenomena such as cold snaps and a possible La Nina event [1]. II. Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: After a high - level shock in September, it's in a direction - selection phase. Domestic and external funds may flow in, and the market style may shift in the fourth quarter [2][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are rising. Factors include trade tensions, Fed policy hints, and US government issues. There are risks of adjustments [3][19]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil production and exports are increasing, but the market may be affected by macro - factors [3][28]. III. Daily News - **International News**: Trump is signaling trade relaxation, and the US may face a "tariff refund" situation if it loses a court case [5]. - **Domestic News**: The China Shipowners' Association has deepened cooperation with international shipping institutions [6]. - **Industry News**: India's oil imports from Russia increased in the first half of October [7]. IV. Outer - Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500, ICE Brent crude, and the US dollar index rose, while the FTSE China A50 futures, London gold, and London silver declined [9]. V. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: Similar to the key variety analysis, it's in a direction - selection phase with potential fund inflows and a possible style shift [2][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The price is supported by a loose monetary policy environment. The Fed may cut interest rates, and the domestic economy has positive and negative factors. The central bank may continue with a loose policy [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The price decline is due to geopolitical stability and reduced demand. OPEC's actions in November are crucial for the price trend [13]. - **Methanol**: The开工 rate of related devices is decreasing, and inventory is rising. The market is volatile [14]. - **Rubber**: Supply may increase, but weather and trade negotiations can affect the price [15]. - **Polyolefins**: The price is affected by crude oil and market sentiment, with a possible slowdown in the decline [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The inventory of glass is increasing, and that of soda ash is slightly decreasing. The market is cautious, and consumption and policies are key factors [17][18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: The same as the key variety analysis, with growth and adjustment risks [3][19]. - **Copper**: The supply of concentrates is tight, and the demand varies by industry. The Indonesia mine accident may support the price [20]. - **Zinc**: The processing fee is rising, and the price may follow copper. The domestic price may be weaker than the international one [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is supported, with limited fluctuations [22]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is strong in the short - term but may face a high - level shock. The steel - making profit and production are key factors [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand is supported by steel production, and the supply has decreased. The price is expected to be strong [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export is mixed. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with a mid - term bullish view [26]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The US soybean crushing data is positive, but the domestic supply is sufficient, putting pressure on the price [27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Similar to the key variety analysis, with palm oil exports supporting the price and macro - factors causing pressure [3][28]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in a stock - building phase, and the domestic market is under supply pressure [29]. - **Cotton**: The US market is affected by the government shutdown, and the domestic market has a production increase expectation and weak downstream demand [30]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a game for the year - end peak season. The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the far - month price is related to the Israel - Palestine negotiation [31].