| 预计关税影响有限，期待阿迪放量 | | --- | ——华利集团 24 快报点评 纺织制造 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 Email：zouwj@zts.com.cn 基本状况 | 总股本(百万股) | 1,167.00 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,166.99 | | 市价(元) | 56.14 | | 市值(百万元) | 65,515.38 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 65,514.95 | 1、《收入符合预期，阿迪放量可期》 2025-03-14 放量》2024-10-30 2024-08-23 华利集团（300979.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 14 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the textile and apparel industry, highlighting potential recovery opportunities due to evolving tariff policies and domestic demand [5][9]. Core Insights - The manufacturing sector is expected to see a valuation recovery as the peak of risk aversion related to tariff policies has passed, with major brands maintaining order volumes and shipment schedules [5][9]. - The brand sector is poised for a valuation recovery driven by improved consumer sentiment and policy support, particularly in discretionary spending categories like apparel [5][9]. Industry Data Tracking - The Cotlook A index and China cotton price index decreased by 1.3% and 4.2% respectively, while wool prices fell by 4.3% [27]. - In March 2025, Vietnam's textile and apparel exports increased by 14.77% year-on-year, with footwear exports rising by 15.77% [31][33]. - Retail sales in China showed a year-on-year growth of 4% in the first two months of 2025, with notable increases in categories such as clothing and home appliances [24][25]. Company Dynamics - Anta Sports reported a double-digit revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a significant increase in sales from its various brands [3]. - Huali Group's revenue for 2024 reached 24 billion yuan, reflecting a 19.35% year-on-year increase, driven by both returning and new customers [3]. - Taiping Bird's Q1 2025 revenue declined by 7% year-on-year, but the company is expected to benefit from strategic adjustments and improved gross margins [3]. Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector experienced a decline of 5.72% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [6][14]. - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks, with notable gains from companies like Wan Shili and Tai Mu Shi, while companies like Kai Run and Mu Gao Di faced significant declines [21][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][34]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 24.006 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.35%, driven by the recovery of orders from sports shoe manufacturers as inventory issues ease [1][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 20% to 3.84 billion yuan in 2024, with a stable gross margin of 26.8% [1][8]. - The company plans to increase its annual cash dividend payout ratio to approximately 70% of net profit for 2024, up from 43.76% in 2023 [1][8]. Revenue and Profit Growth - The company sold 223 million pairs of sports shoes in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, with an average selling price of approximately 107.3 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 1.6% [2][13]. - The top five customers accounted for 79% of total revenue, a decrease of 3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a diversification in the customer base [2][13]. - The company has established a partnership with Adidas, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth starting in 2025 [2][28]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 4.304 billion yuan, 5.002 billion yuan, and 5.746 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.1%, 16.2%, and 14.9% [3][34]. - The reasonable valuation range for the company is maintained at 73.1 to 79.5 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 20-22x for 2025 [3][34]. Operational Efficiency - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 22.0% in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points [17][35]. - Capital expenditures are expected to reach 1.7 billion yuan, primarily for capacity expansion, with new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia commencing production [1][17]. Market Position - The company has consistently outperformed its peers in the industry, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.0% from 2022 to 2024, while competitors experienced declines [27][29]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery of major clients like Nike and the new partnership with Adidas, which is anticipated to drive significant revenue growth [27][28].

Company Overview - The report highlights that China Telecom (601728.SH) focuses on computing power investment and expanding into emerging fields, achieving a revenue of 523.57 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [4][5] - The service revenue reached 482.03 billion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year, with EBITDA at 140.85 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.9% increase [4][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 33.01 billion yuan, marking an 8.4% year-on-year growth, with a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.36 yuan, also up 8.4% [4][5] Business Segments - The mobile communication service revenue grew to 202.5 billion yuan, a 3.5% increase year-on-year, with mobile value-added and application revenue rising by 16.1% to 29.9 billion yuan [5][6] - The fixed-line and smart home service revenue reached 125.7 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year, with smart home business revenue increasing by 16.8% to 22.1 billion yuan [5][6] - The broadband user base reached 197 million, with a net increase of 7 million users, and the broadband ARPU remained stable at 47.6 yuan [5][6] Emerging Business Growth - The report indicates that the digital industry revenue reached 146.6 billion yuan, a 5.5% increase, accounting for 30.4% of service revenue [5][6] - Tianyi Cloud revenue grew by 17.1% to 113.9 billion yuan, with international business revenue reaching 16.88 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has made significant advancements in AI, quantum/safety, and satellite communication, with AI revenue increasing by 195.7% to 8.9 billion yuan [6] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Capital expenditures are projected to decrease, with 2024 expenditures at 93.5 billion yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year, and a further decline to 83.6 billion yuan in 2025 [7][9] - The report anticipates a strong growth trajectory for revenue, EBITDA, and net profit through 2025, with a focus on maintaining high dividend payouts [9] - The company aims to achieve a payout ratio of 72% for 2024, with plans to increase cash distributions to over 75% of net profit within three years [9] Industry Insights - The GLP-1 RA market is projected to exceed 50 billion USD globally in 2024, with significant growth potential in diabetes and weight loss treatments [11][12] - The report notes that the number of diabetes patients in China is expected to reach 150 million by 2025, indicating a substantial market for GLP-1 drugs [11][12] - The introduction of domestic dual-target GLP-1 drugs is anticipated, with ongoing clinical trials showing promising results in weight loss and diabetes management [10][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from high industry prosperity, leading to performance growth, with expectations for new customers and production capacity remaining strong [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 24.006 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.35%, and a net profit of 3.840 billion RMB, up 20.00% year-on-year [6] - The company’s core business remains in sports and leisure shoes, with revenue from this segment reaching 20.991 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.88% [6] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023: 20.114 billion RMB - 2024: 24.006 billion RMB (19.35% YoY growth) - 2025E: 27.664 billion RMB (15.24% YoY growth) - 2026E: 31.734 billion RMB (14.71% YoY growth) - 2027E: 36.258 billion RMB (14.25% YoY growth) [5] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023: 3.200 billion RMB - 2024: 3.840 billion RMB (20.00% YoY growth) - 2025E: 4.355 billion RMB (13.40% YoY growth) - 2026E: 4.959 billion RMB (13.87% YoY growth) - 2027E: 5.731 billion RMB (15.58% YoY growth) [5] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: 2.74 RMB - 2024: 3.29 RMB - 2025E: 3.73 RMB - 2026E: 4.25 RMB - 2027E: 4.91 RMB [5] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023: 21.18% - 2024: 22.03% - 2025E: 21.22% - 2026E: 20.63% - 2027E: 20.39% [5] Market Performance - The company sold 223 million pairs of sports shoes in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.53%, with a production capacity of 229 million pairs, up 3.32% year-on-year [6] - The company’s production capacity utilization rate reached 96.72% in 2024, an increase of approximately 10 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23 RMB per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year, with an expected payout ratio of about 70% of net profit [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5][4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 24 billion in 2024, representing a 19% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 3.8 billion, also reflecting a 20% increase [1] - The company has established a strong customer base, including major global sports brands such as Nike and Adidas, which supports its stable growth [2] - The company is expanding its production capacity with new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [1][3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenues of 6.5 billion, a 12% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1 billion, up 9% [1] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 26.8%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points, while the net margin is expected to be 16%, up 0.1 percentage points [1] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 3.29, with projections of 3.76, 4.44, and 5.17 for 2025 to 2027 respectively [4][9] Production and Cost Advantages - The company benefits from a complete manufacturing chain, which helps in maintaining product quality and reducing overall production costs [3] - Automation in production processes is being implemented to enhance efficiency and lower manufacturing costs [3] - The company’s scale of operations allows for significant cost savings in raw material procurement and production expenses [3] Customer Base and Market Position - The company has begun collaboration with Adidas, starting mass production in September 2024, further solidifying its position as a key supplier for major brands [2] - The top five customers account for a significant portion of the company's revenue, with the largest customer contributing 33% of sales [1]

2024Q4 公司收入同比增长 12%/归母净利润同比增长 9%。2024Q4 公司收入为 65 亿 元，同比+12%；归母净利润为 10 亿元，同比+9%；扣非归母净利润为 9.8 亿元，同比+5%。 1）量价拆分：2024Q4 销售运动鞋 0.60 亿双（同增+12%），销售单价同比持平。2）盈利 质量：2024Q4 公司毛利率同比-2.3pct 至 24.1%（（我们判断毛利率降主要系公公司在较多 新工 厂仍较爬 坡状态 ）， 销 售/ 管理 / 财务费用 率同比分 别持平 /-0.9pct/-0.2pct 至 0.2%/2.3%/-0.3%，净利率同比-0.5pct 至 15.3%。 证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 11 年 月 日 华利集团（300979.SZ） 基本面持续高质量增长，2024 年分红超出预期 2024 年公司收入同比增长 19%/归母净利润同比增长 20%，分红超出此前预期。2024 年 公司收入为 240.1 亿元，同比+19%；归母净利润为 38.4 亿元，同比+20%；扣非归母净利 润为 37.8 亿元，同比+19%，与此前业绩快报数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 19% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 24.01 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 20%, amounting to 3.84 billion yuan. The dividend distribution is anticipated to exceed previous expectations, with a total proposed payout of 2.684 billion yuan, translating to a dividend per share of 2.3 yuan and a payout ratio of approximately 70% [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 24.01 billion yuan, a 19% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% growth. The gross profit margin is expected to rise by 1.2 percentage points to 26.8% [1]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.5 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1 billion yuan, up 9% from the previous year [2]. Orders and Client Relationships - The company is deepening cooperation with core clients and anticipates rapid order growth from new clients like Adidas in 2025. Revenue from different product categories shows significant growth, particularly in outdoor footwear and sandals, with total revenue from core clients reaching 204.1 billion yuan from the US, 30.6 billion yuan from Europe, and 4.9 billion yuan from other regions [3]. Production Capacity - The company is expected to expand its production capacity significantly, with total capacity reaching 22.9 million pairs and total output at 22.1 million pairs in 2024. The capacity utilization rate is projected to be 97%, indicating a near-saturation state [4]. Operational Management - The company has shown healthy inventory management with a year-end inventory increase of 13.8% to 3.12 billion yuan. The operating cash flow for 2024 is estimated at 4.62 billion yuan, approximately 1.2 times the net profit for the same period, indicating strong cash flow management [5]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading global sports shoe manufacturer, with expectations for a 15% growth in revenue and performance in 2025, driven by new customer collaborations and accelerated capacity expansion. The projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 4.387 billion yuan, 5.062 billion yuan, and 5.832 billion yuan, respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.006 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.35%, and a net profit of 3.840 billion yuan, up 20.00% year-on-year. The proposed cash dividend of 2.684 billion yuan reflects a dividend payout ratio of 70%, significantly higher than the 43%/44% in 2022/2023 [1] - The growth in sales volume is primarily driven by an increase in new customers and the end of inventory destocking by existing clients. The company expects to sell 223 million pairs of sports shoes in 2024, a 17.53% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price of approximately 107.4 yuan per pair, up 1.6% year-on-year [2] - The company is experiencing temporary fluctuations in gross margin due to the ramp-up of production efficiency in newly established factories. The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 26.8%, a 1.2 percentage point increase year-on-year, while the net profit margin is expected to be 16.0% [3] - The company is expanding its production capacity with multiple new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, which will enhance its ability to meet customer demand while also reducing procurement costs through local sourcing [4] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 27.629 billion yuan, 31.723 billion yuan, and 36.366 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.340 billion yuan, 4.988 billion yuan, and 5.724 billion yuan, indicating a stable growth trajectory [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance is expected to be strong, with revenue projected at 4.674 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.66%, and net profit expected to reach 700.34 million yuan, up 25.48% year-on-year [1][8] - The growth in button sales is outpacing zipper sales, and the overseas market is growing faster than the domestic market, with significant price increases for products [8] - The gross margin is expected to improve, and the net profit margin is projected to increase, indicating better cost management and operational efficiency [8] Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Total revenue for 2023 is 3.907 billion yuan, with projections of 4.674 billion yuan for 2024, 5.011 billion yuan for 2025, 5.548 billion yuan for 2026, and 6.146 billion yuan for 2027 [1] - Net profit for 2023 is 558.11 million yuan, with forecasts of 700.34 million yuan for 2024, 753.69 million yuan for 2025, 841.14 million yuan for 2026, and 934.95 million yuan for 2027 [1] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.60 yuan for 2024, increasing to 0.80 yuan by 2027 [1] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 25.59 in 2023 to 15.28 by 2027, indicating a potentially more attractive valuation over time [1] Market and Product Insights - The company is experiencing a recovery in demand for buttons, which are primarily used in clothing, while zippers are used in a broader range of products [8] - The international market is benefiting from the company's ongoing globalization strategy, with overseas revenue expected to grow by 30.6% in 2024 [8] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025 due to cautious expectations in the domestic apparel market and uncertainties related to U.S.-China tariff policies [8]