Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it provides specific investment suggestions for different commodity futures contracts. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as US trade policies, liquidity, and geopolitical risks, leading to differentiated trends in different sectors [2]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, but caution is needed when testing key positions. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations may boost bond market sentiment. In the medium - term, the curve strategy recommends paying attention to certain operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are in high - level shock, and silver may have further pulse - type increases, but chasing high should be cautious [2]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be in a strong - biased shock, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract [2]. - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Arbitrage operations such as long materials and short raw materials can be considered [2]. - **Black Metals**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore, coking coal, and coke at low prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US inventory replenishment has ended. For copper, pay attention to the support level; for aluminum and its alloys, the macro uncertainty is increasing, and the spot market is in a weak season [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be in a strong - biased shock. For different chemical products, due to different supply - demand situations, various investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, long - short operations, and attention to price ranges are recommended [2]. Agricultural Sector - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar is recommended for short - selling on rebounds. Each product has specific price ranges and investment suggestions [2]. Special and New Energy Sectors - Special commodities such as glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere. For new energy products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, due to various factors, it is generally recommended to wait and see [2].

现 货 价 格 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/15 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 7月10日止当周美国大豆出口检验量为147,045吨，低于预期 美国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至2025年7月10日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为147,045吨，此前市场 预估为200,000-500,000吨，前一周修正后为399,600吨，初值为389,364吨。 截至2024年7月11日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为175,327吨。 本作物年度迄今，美国大豆出口检验量累计为46,411,264吨，上一年度同期为42,023,808吨。 截至7月13日当周美国大豆优良率为70%，高于预期 美国农业部(USDA)在每周作物生长报告中公布称，截至2025年7月13日当周，美国大豆优良率为70%，高于市场预期 的67%，前一周为66%,上年同期为68%。 截至当周，美国大豆开花率为47%，上一周为32%，上年同期为49%，五年均值为47%。 截至当周，美国大豆结英率为15%，上一周为8%，上年同期为17%，五年均值为14%。 Secex:巴西7月前两周出口大豆4,331,243.97吨 Secex公布的出口 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural products morning report released on July 15, 2025, by the agricultural products team of the research center [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, prices in Jinzhou decreased by 10, in Weifang by 8, and the basis changed by -6. Trade profit increased by 10, and import profit increased by 8. For starch, the basis increased by 9, and processing profit increased by 20 [2] Market Analysis - Corn: Recent reserve auctions of imported corn increased supply slightly, easing market tension and causing some grain - using enterprises to lower purchase prices. In the short - term, the auctions aim to ease market tension, and low old - crop inventories support prices. In the long - term, widening import profits may lead to increased imports and weaker prices [3] - Starch: Some enterprises raised starch prices due to production losses. In the short - term, strong raw material prices support starch prices, but high industry inventories limit the rebound. In the long - term, weak downstream consumption restricts price increases, and it's advisable to short far - month contracts after a small profit repair [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, there was no change in spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming. The basis decreased by 7, and import profit from Thailand and Brazil increased by 77. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 134 [4] Market Analysis - International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's peak crushing season. However, Brazil faces risks (low yield, sugar content, and falling sugar - making ratio), giving raw sugar potential for a corrective rebound. The domestic market follows raw sugar, but Zhengzhou sugar has a smaller fluctuation range. With a large amount of imported sugar arriving, the futures price faces upward pressure [4] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 5, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 61. The price of Vietnamese yarn increased by 50, and the import profit increased by 54. The 32S spinning profit increased by 45 [6] Market Analysis - A rapid decline in cotton inventories has driven up prices recently, but there is resistance from hedging orders. Weak downstream orders, profits, and machine - running rates limit the acceptance of high prices. If demand worsens or there are macro risks, prices may fall; otherwise, they will fluctuate at the current level [6] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 0.22, 0.22, 0.25, 0.20, and 0.15 respectively. The basis increased by 20 [8] Market Analysis - In early July, hot and humid weather in northern production areas affected egg storage and transportation, causing the futures price to fall. As the weather clears, egg prices will enter a seasonal upward channel, but high inventory may limit the rebound [9] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged. The national inventory increased by 6, Shandong inventory increased by 11, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 24 [11][12] Market Analysis - In the new production season, apple bagging has ended in various regions. Western regions may see increased yield but have serious tree - felling problems, and Shandong is expected to have a 20% reduction. National production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, with the lowest inventory in five years and slower de - stocking recently. Spot prices have risen significantly, and seasonal fruits are squeezing apples' market share [12] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, pig prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.10, 0.15, 0.05, 0.25, and 0.20 respectively. The basis decreased by 40 [12] Market Analysis - Pig production capacity reduction is limited, and long - term supply pressure remains. In the medium - term, price rebounds are not conducive to capacity and inventory reduction. Futures prices have risen on expectations of seasonal rebounds and policies, but need spot price verification. Spot price rebounds are temporarily blocked, and the de - stocking path is crucial [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the efforts of Beijing's market regulatory authorities to enhance food safety through digital solutions, particularly in rural markets [1][2] - The "Electronic Certificate Management Assistant" WeChat mini-program is being trialed in 12 agricultural markets in Tongzhou District, allowing consumers to verify the quality and safety of meat products through QR codes [1] - The implementation of this digital tool aims to improve the efficiency of food safety supervision and reduce the burden on vendors by enabling online inspections and real-time tracking of compliance [1] Group 2 - The Beijing market regulatory bureau is accelerating the development of a citywide digital traceability platform for food safety, specifically focusing on pork sales in agricultural markets to ensure traceability and safety for consumers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growth and innovation within the Yangmei industry in Zhejiang, emphasizing the financial support provided by local banks to enhance production, processing, and sales efficiency [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Support and Innovation - The Baoshan Yangmei Cooperative has expanded its planting area from 5 mu in 2009 to over 300 mu, relying on local banks for timely financial support [1]. - Zhejiang Rural Commercial Bank provided a credit line of 1 million yuan through the "Xianmei Data Rights Loan," facilitating quick access to funds for the cooperative [1]. - The bank has introduced innovative financing models, such as pledging sales rights and evaluating multiple dimensions like sales data and tree value to support various stakeholders in the Yangmei industry [1][3]. Group 2: Processing and Quality Control - Zhejiang Juxian Zhuang Beverage Co., Ltd. has enhanced its cold storage capacity to 4,000 cubic meters to improve the freshness of Yangmei during the harvest season [2]. - The company utilized a "trademark and patent pledge" loan from the bank to finance production equipment, demonstrating the ability to convert intellectual property into financial resources [2]. - Zhejiang Yangbaili Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has invested in automated production lines to process 15 tons of Yangmei into concentrated juice within an hour, showcasing the industry's focus on efficiency and quality [2]. Group 3: Industry Growth and Impact - The local bank has developed a range of tailored financial products, including "Harvest Yangmei Loan," "Travel Creation Loan," and "Trademark Pledge Loan," to support the entire Yangmei industry chain [3]. - As of June this year, the bank's loans for the Yangmei industry reached 407 million yuan, with a total of 1.58 billion yuan disbursed over the past two years, contributing significantly to rural revitalization [3].

国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 型班目: | 指标 | | 7月14日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | -52 | -36 | 2500 г | ===== 19/20 | ======20/21 ====- 21/22 =====22/23 | | == 23/24 | 24/25 | | | 日照 | -172 | | | | | | | | | | 天津 | -72 | -16 | 2000 1500 | | | | | | | | | | | 1000 | | | | | | | | | | -16 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 张家港 | -162 | -16 | -500 09/21 | | 10/22 11/22 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 05/26 06/26 07/27 08 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils have weakened, while some agricultural and sideline products are in a volatile state. Soft commodities like sugar continue to be weak, cotton is rising moderately, and grains such as corn and starch are in a narrow - range weak consolidation. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Information on the latest price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change of various agricultural product futures is presented, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. [3] 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - Open Interest PCR - Details of the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, trading volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of different option varieties are provided [4]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interest, and maximum put option open interest of each option variety are listed [5]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - Data on the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, historical volatility, and implied - historical volatility difference of various option varieties are given [6]. 3.3 Strategies and Recommendations for Different Option Types 3.3.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybeans (Bean 1 and Bean 2)**: Based on the USDA July report, the inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season has increased. Bean 1 has shown a weakening trend recently. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread of put options; volatility strategies recommend selling a neutral combination of call and put options; and spot long - hedging strategies propose a long collar strategy [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The fundamentals of soybean meal show that domestic trading has slightly improved but remains weak. The market has shown a weak rebound and then a decline. For soybean meal, volatility strategies suggest selling a bearish combination of call and put options, and spot long - hedging strategies use a long collar strategy [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The MPOB June report indicates that Malaysian palm oil exports are lower than expected. Palm oil has shown a bullish trend. Volatility strategies recommend selling a bullish combination of call and put options, and spot long - hedging strategies use a long collar strategy [10]. - **Peanuts**: The fundamentals show that peanut prices are weak, and the downstream consumption is also weak. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread of put options, and spot long - hedging strategies use a long collar strategy [11]. 3.3.2 Agricultural and Sideline Products Options - **Pigs**: The domestic pig price has stabilized after a decline. The market has shown a rebound and then a slight consolidation. Volatility strategies recommend selling a neutral combination of call and put options, and spot long - covered strategies suggest holding a long position in the spot and selling out - of - the - money call options [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is increasing. The market has shown a weak downward trend. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread of put options, and volatility strategies recommend selling a bearish combination of call and put options [12]. - **Apples**: The inventory of apples in cold storage is at a low level in recent years. The market has shown a weak rebound. Volatility strategies recommend selling a neutral combination of call and put options [12]. - **Jujubes**: The inventory of jujubes has decreased slightly, but the consumption is in the off - season. Volatility strategies recommend selling a bearish wide - straddle option combination, and spot covered - hedging strategies suggest holding a long position in the spot and selling out - of - the - money call options [13]. 3.3.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar exports have increased. The market has shown a rebound after a decline. Volatility strategies recommend selling a neutral combination of call and put options, and spot long - hedging strategies use a long collar strategy [13]. - **Cotton**: The operating rates of spinning and weaving factories have declined, and the commercial inventory of cotton has decreased. The market has shown a rebound. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bull spread of call options, and volatility strategies recommend selling a neutral combination of call and put options, and spot covered strategies suggest holding a long position in the spot and selling out - of - the - money call options [14]. 3.3.4 Grains Options - **Corn and Starch**: The corn market is bearish due to the impact of imported corn auctions. The market has shown a downward trend. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread of put options, and volatility strategies recommend selling a bearish combination of call and put options [14]. 3.4 Charts - Charts of various option varieties, including price trends, trading volume and open interest, open interest PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility cones, and pressure and support levels, are provided for different option types such as soybean options, soybean meal options, etc. [17][37][55]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The July report indicates a downward adjustment in global corn, rice, and wheat production for 2025/2026, while soybean production is projected to increase [12] - The USDA's report highlights a reduction in corn production due to a decrease in harvested area in the United States, while an increase in soybean production is attributed to expanded harvested area in Ukraine [12][22] - The report also notes that wheat production is down due to reduced harvested areas in Russia and Mexico, as well as declines in Canada [34][35] - Rice production is expected to decrease due to a reduction in harvested area in the United States [51] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The global corn production for 2025/2026 is adjusted down by 2.32 million tons to 126.4 million tons, with a corresponding decrease in consumption [13] - The USDA forecasts a reduction in U.S. corn production to 39.9 million tons, down by 2.92 million tons from the previous report [13] Soybean - Global soybean production for 2025/2026 is projected to increase by 0.86 million tons to 42.8 million tons, with domestic consumption also rising [22] - The USDA reports an increase in soybean production in Ukraine, with an expected output of 7.6 million tons, up by 1 million tons from the previous forecast [22] Wheat - The global wheat production for 2025/2026 is adjusted down by 40,000 tons to 80.9 million tons, while consumption is expected to rise [34] - The report indicates that wheat production in Russia is projected to be 23 million tons, down by 1 million tons from the previous report due to farmers switching to other crops [35] Rice - Global rice production for 2025/2026 is adjusted down by 310,000 tons to 54.1 million tons, while consumption is expected to increase by 550,000 tons [51] - The USDA forecasts a decrease in U.S. rice production to 6.51 million tons, down by 300,000 tons from the previous report [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the egg market is cautiously bearish [5] 2. Core Views - In the pig market, with the expectation of increased future supply, the spot price is likely to continue to decline. Entering the seasonal consumption off - season, there is no obvious short - term boost on the demand side. Secondary fattening demand may enter the market when the price drops to around 14 yuan/kg. Policy - related factors such as state reserve purchases and sales and the "anti - involution" policy need attention, as well as supply - side slaughter changes [2] - In the egg market, the current demand remains at a normal level during the off - season. The cold - storage warehousing in northern sales areas has slowed down, and traders are cautious in purchasing. The approaching end of the plum - rain season in southern sales areas and the postponed Mid - Autumn Festival have limited impact on demand. The short - term market pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, and farmers will continue to incur losses [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2509 contract yesterday was 14,285 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton (- 0.42%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: The price of external ternary live hogs in Henan was 14.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 15.10 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.04 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.90 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.08 yuan/kg. The spot basis in Henan was LH09 + 315, a change of - 40; in Jiangsu, it was LH09 + 815, a change of + 20; in Sichuan, it was LH09 - 385, a change of - 220 [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on July 14: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.02, down 0.33 points from last Friday; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 113.12, down 0.38 points. The average price of pork was 20.60 yuan/kg, unchanged; beef was 63.92 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; mutton was 59.38 yuan/kg, unchanged; eggs were 6.97 yuan/kg, down 0.9%; white - striped chickens were 17.21 yuan/kg, up 1.2% [1] Market Analysis - Due to expected supply increase and the seasonal consumption off - season, the spot price may decline. Secondary fattening may enter the market when the price reaches around 14 yuan/kg. Policy factors and supply - side slaughter changes need to be monitored [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2508 contract yesterday was 3461 yuan/500 kg, a change of + 19 yuan (+ 0.55%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.58 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.22; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.25; in Hebei, it was 2.58 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.07. The spot basis in Liaoning was JD08 - 881, a change of + 201; in Shandong, it was JD08 - 611, a change of + 231; in Hebei, it was JD08 - 881, a change of + 51 [3] - Inventory: On July 14, the national production - link inventory was 0.73 days, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous trading day; the circulation - link inventory was 0.98 days, a decrease of 0.34 days [3] Market Analysis - The current demand is weak during the off - season. Cold - storage warehousing in northern areas has slowed down, and the approaching end of the plum - rain season and the postponed Mid - Autumn Festival in southern areas have limited impact on demand. The short - term oversupply pattern will continue, and farmers will keep losing money [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

农产品日报 | 2025-07-15 红枣重心下移，产区气温适合坐果 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7838元/吨，较前一日变动+24元/吨，幅度+0.31%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.95元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+62，较前一日变动-24；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1762，较前一日变动-24。 近期市场资讯，苹果产区交易维持稳淡运行，发市场客商拿货积极性一般，电商及出口渠道要货冷清。西部部分 冷库水烂点货源面积扩大，部分持货商开始存急售心理，早熟果目前仍以大荔、运城等地晨阳、华硕、秦阳为主， 整体上量有限，对行情影响不大。山东产区仍以发市场为主，部分货源价格因质量有小幅松动。销区市场走货一 般，消暑类水果存在冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论 价。山东栖霞产区果农三级2.0-2.5元/斤，果农80#以上统货2.8-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二 ...