日度报告——综合晨报 美联储官员 Daly 称今年可能需要降息两次以 上 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-08-05 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储官员 Daly 称今年可能需要降息两次以上 特朗普将大幅提高印度关税税率，二级制裁的威胁明显上升， 因此需要明显注意未来政策动向，美元继续震荡。 宏观策略（股指期货） 上半年中国服务贸易逆差同比减少大幅减少 综 8 月 4 日 A 股韧性超出市场预期，在周末谨慎情绪发酵后，仍能 逆势上涨，表明当前市场风险偏好仍高。题材股轮番表现，市 场依旧维持在高位易涨难跌的状态。 合 农产品（白糖） 晨 菲律宾开启大规模糖进口大门，提振泰国出口希望 报 巴基斯坦政府正式下令进口20万吨糖；菲律宾政府批准进口42.4 万吨糖。这在一定程度上印证了"目前全球尤其消费国库存偏 低，国际糖价低位将吸引逢低买需增加"的情况。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 199 家钢企完成超低排放改造公示 钢价震荡略有反弹，近期关于阅兵期间环保限产的传闻再起， 但仍需理性看待对实际产量的影响。近期成材需求仍季节性回 落，不过矛盾不算突出，预计市场震荡略有回调。 有色金属（铜） 淡 ...

申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 一、短期调整的背景是，市场轮涨补涨行情充分演绎，市场稳定性略有下降。7月政治局会议和中美新一轮谈判并非低于预期，只是未提供新的 突破线索。带领市场进一步突破的主线结构尚未确立，市场调整回归震荡市。在调整波段中，市场将会消化2025下半年经济增速预期回落 + 政策 重点仍偏向调结构的预期。 8月市场回归震荡市，9月3日阅兵前可能还有上涨波段。中期观点不变：时间是牛市的朋友，核心是时间是基本面改善和增量资金流入A股的朋 友。维持25Q4好于25Q3的判断，2026年会更好的判断。 我们对短期调整背景的理解：前期市场突破后，演绎高切低行情，虽然叠加了反内卷 + 雅鲁藏布江水电站工程，驱动周期修复，但本质上还是轮 涨补涨、寻找牛市主线的过程。但随着轮涨补涨行情演绎趋于充分，赚钱效应扩散至高位，短期市场稳定性略有下降。此时市场迫切需要重新聚 焦主线，暂时求而不得，引发了调整。 7月政治局会议和中美新一轮谈判的结果，低于资本市场部分过度乐观的预期，被视作触发调整的事件性催化。但在我们看来，7月政治局会议稳 增长相关内容，更多偏向于督 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp rise of coking coal 2601 futures today is due to multiple factors. If the strict implementation of over - production verification in coal mines continues to shrink supply and demand remains stable, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or steel mill hot metal production peaks and declines, the price increase will face pressure. Investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics and treat it with a bias towards more in a volatile market [3][4]. - Starting from August 8th, the taxation of interest income from treasury bonds and other securities is overall positive for A - shares, and in the short - term, it will mainly show high - level fluctuations [7]. - The significantly lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data, especially the large downward revision of May and June data, indicates that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will show small - scale fluctuations in the short - term [11]. - In the context of stable demand and falling port inventories, the iron ore futures price rose slightly on Monday. However, the expected increase in supply restricts the upward trend, and the overall market shows a pattern of more - biased supply - demand game [15][16]. - In the short - term, domestic and foreign orders for glass are average, and the operating rate of downstream component enterprises remains low. With the slowdown of stocking, local transactions are weakening. Overall, local supply and demand have slightly improved, and the price shows an upward trend, but the increase should be treated with a bias towards more in a volatile market [19][20]. - The new US renewable fuel policy increases the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak Malaysian palm oil exports may limit the upward momentum of the market [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to underground accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. For example, the resumption of production in some coal mines in Lvliang, Shanxi is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures, leading to tightened supply [4]. - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with the comprehensive profitability rate of steel mills close to 60%, and the daily average hot metal output is at a high level, which strongly supports the demand for coking coal. The replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up the price [4]. - Policy: The implementation of the new version of the Mineral Resources Law, the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations also drive up the price of coking coal [4]. A - shares - Policy impact: Starting from August 8th, the taxation of interest income from treasury bonds and other securities is overall positive for A - shares, and the short - term trend is high - level fluctuations [7]. Gold - Economic data impact: The significantly lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data, especially the large downward revision of May and June data, indicates that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it shows small - scale fluctuations in the short - term [11]. Iron Ore - Market situation: In the context of stable demand and falling port inventories, the iron ore futures price rose slightly on Monday. However, the expected increase in supply restricts the upward trend, and the overall market shows a pattern of more - biased supply - demand game [15][16]. Glass - Short - term situation: Domestic and foreign orders are average, and the operating rate of downstream component enterprises remains low. With the slowdown of stocking, local transactions are weakening. Overall, local supply and demand have slightly improved, and the price shows an upward trend, but the increase should be treated with a bias towards more in a volatile market [19][20]. Palm Oil - Positive factors: The new US renewable fuel policy increases the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [23]. - Negative factors: Weak Malaysian palm oil exports may limit the upward momentum of the market [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of the black building materials market are still weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the terminal demand and cost - side support need to be closely monitored [3]. - After the "anti - involution" sentiment cools down, prices are expected to move closer to the real fundamentals, and the influence of demand - side changes on prices will gradually increase. Speculative funds are advised to be cautious, while hedging funds can take appropriate opportunities [11]. 3. Summary by Category Steel Products - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3204 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.031%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3417 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.470%), also with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and positions. In the spot market, rebar prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased, while hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai increased [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall commodity market was weak. In terms of macro - factors, the Politburo meeting's stance on real estate remained unchanged, and export competitiveness weakened. Rebar speculative demand declined with price drops and inventory increased, while hot - rolled coil demand slightly recovered, production rose rapidly, and inventory slightly accumulated. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are at a five - year low [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, up 0.96% (+7.50), with a decrease in positions. The weighted position was 94.81 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 774 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.92 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.88% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining, while non - mainstream country shipments increased and arrivals increased. The average daily pig iron output decreased, port inventory decreased, and steel mill imported ore inventory slightly increased. The steel mill profitability rate is high, and there is still demand support, while the supply growth is limited, and port inventory is trending downward [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) rose 0.17% to close at 5972 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) fell 0.14% to close at 5674 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin also decreased by 50 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, market funds had significant differences, and prices fluctuated widely. In the long term, the fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are still in an oversupply situation, and future demand is expected to weaken [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed at 8360 yuan/ton, down 1.65% (-140), with an increase in weighted positions. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 48980 yuan/ton, down 0.84% (-415), with a decrease in weighted positions [13][14]. - **Market Analysis**: For industrial silicon, production in all major producing areas has increased, and cost support is limited. Although polysilicon production is expected to increase in August, the price may be weak in the short term. For polysilicon, prices are affected by capacity integration expectations and corporate price - holding strategies, and are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe decreased by 55 yuan, and the national floating glass inventory decreased. The spot price of soda ash remained stable, and the domestic soda ash manufacturer inventory increased. The downstream demand for soda ash was lukewarm, and the supply slightly increased [17][18]. - **Market Analysis**: Glass prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and in the long term, they will follow macro - sentiment. If real estate policies are introduced, prices may rise. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [17][18]. Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: The prices of some coal and coke varieties increased, such as Shanxi Liulin low - sulfur coal up 50 yuan, and Ordos secondary coke up 50 yuan [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.9 points, with a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.6% [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 126.2, with a year - on - year increase of 5.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the real - estate sales high - frequency index shows a year - on - year decline of 6.4 points, with the decline rate remaining unchanged; the infrastructure investment high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 4.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the export high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 3.4 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the consumption high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 2.6 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.1%, and the PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.2%, both remaining unchanged from the previous values [1][9]. - The inventory high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 9.3 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the transportation high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 9.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the financing high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 29.7 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [2][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.9 points (previous value: 126.8 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points (previous value: 5.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.6% (previous value: 4.6%) [1][9]. 2. Production: Electric Arc Furnace Operating Rate Rebounds - The electric arc furnace operating rate is 62.8%, up from the previous value of 62.2%; the polyester operating rate is 86.8%, down from the previous value of 86.9%; the semi - tire operating rate is 74.5%, down from the previous value of 75.9%; the full - tire operating rate is 61.1%, down from the previous value of 65.0%; the PTA operating rate is 79.7%, down from the previous value of 80.8%; the PX operating rate is 82.4%, the same as the previous value; the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 47.5 tons, down from the previous value of 49.4 tons [11][16]. 3. Real - Estate Sales: Property Transactions Continue to Rebound - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 24.4 square meters, up from the previous value of 21.0 square meters; the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 9.0%, up from the previous value of 7.8% [28]. 4. Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Rebounds - The operating rate of asphalt plants is 33.1%, up from the previous value of 28.8% [38]. 5. Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The CCFI index is 1232 points, down from the previous value of 1261 points; the RJ/CRB index is 301.9 points, down from the previous value of 303.8 points [45]. 6. Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturers' Retail and Wholesale Sales Continue to Rebound - Passenger car manufacturers' retail sales are 66,611 units, up from the previous value of 58,207 units; wholesale sales are 77,867 units, up from the previous value of 57,826 units; the average daily box office is 23,068 yuan, up from the previous value of 14,066 yuan [59]. 7. CPI: Wholesale Prices of Pork and White - Feathered Chicken Decline Slightly - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.5 yuan/kg, down from the previous value of 20.7 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.4 yuan/kg, the same as the previous value; the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg, the same as the previous value; the average wholesale price of white - feathered chicken is 17.2 yuan/kg, down from the previous value of 17.4 yuan/kg [65]. 8. PPI: Steam Coal Price Continues to Rise - The closing price of steam coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 658 yuan/ton, up from the previous value of 649 yuan/ton; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 72 US dollars/barrel, up from the previous value of 69 US dollars/barrel; the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9672 US dollars/ton, down from the previous value of 9821 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2596 US dollars/ton, down from the previous value of 2647 US dollars/ton [68]. 9. Transportation: Passenger Volume Rebounds - The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 3902 person - times, up from the previous value of 3900 person - times; the highway logistics freight rate index is 1050 points, the same as the previous value; the number of domestic flights is 14,562, up from the previous value of 14,428 [82]. 10. Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Continues to Decline - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 18.1 tons, up from the previous value of 15.5 tons; the soda ash inventory is 179.0 tons, down from the previous value of 187.4 tons [90]. 11. Financing: Local Government Bond and Credit Bond Financing Declines - The net financing of local government bonds is 2425 billion yuan, down from the previous value of 2929 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is 134 billion yuan, down from the previous value of 549 billion yuan; the 6M state - owned stock bill transfer discount rate is 0.6%, down from the previous value of 0.74%; the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 1.1%, down from the previous value of - 0.91% [100].

Report industry investment rating No relevant content provided. Core view of the report - Overseas, the EU has suspended trade countermeasures against the US for 6 months, and Fed officials indicate that the timing of interest rate cuts is approaching, with a preference for more than two rate cuts this year. Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month, and the economy slowed in July. China has introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and the US - China tariff truce has been extended by 90 days. Global risk appetite has increased, and domestic risk preference has also risen [3]. - The short - term logic of the precious metals market has changed significantly. Gold is short - term bullish, while silver's rise is expected to lag behind gold, and the gold - silver ratio is likely to continue to rise [5]. - The short - term prices of black metals are affected by production restriction news. Steel, iron ore, and other products are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the prices of ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals and new energy products show different trends. Copper is affected by economic data and inventory; aluminum is affected by inventory and policies; aluminum alloy is supported by cost but limited by demand; tin is expected to decline weakly in the short term; the short - term fluctuations of lithium carbonate are large; industrial silicon may be affected by the anti - involution meeting; polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9][10][12][13]. - Energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine and OPEC+ production increase plans. Crude oil prices are oscillating, and asphalt, PX, PTA, and other products are expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [14][15]. - The prices of agricultural products show different trends. The prices of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand; palm oil prices may continue to weaken; corn supply and demand are in a weak balance; and pig prices are under pressure [17][18]. Summary by relevant catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The EU suspends trade countermeasures against the US for 6 months, Fed officials are dovish, and the US dollar is weak. Domestically: China's July manufacturing PMI is 49.3%, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month. A national child - rearing subsidy system is introduced, and the US - China tariff truce is extended by 90 days. Stock indices are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level. Commodity sectors such as black, non - ferrous, energy and chemical, and precious metals have different short - term trends [3]. Stock indices - Driven by sectors such as military, precious metals, and humanoid robots, the domestic stock market has risen. China's July manufacturing PMI is 49.3%, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month. A national child - rearing subsidy system is introduced, and the US - China tariff truce is extended by 90 days. The short - term macro - upward driving force has increased. Short - term cautious waiting and watching are recommended [4]. Precious metals - On Monday, precious metals continued to rise. The sharp drop in non - farm payrolls data on Friday increased the probability of Fed rate cuts. The inflation rebound in June made the stagflation characteristics of the US economy more obvious. Gold is short - term bullish, while silver's rise is expected to lag behind gold, and the gold - silver ratio is likely to continue to rise [5]. Black metals - **Steel**: On Monday, the domestic steel spot and futures markets were weak, and production restriction news boosted the afternoon futures price. Real - world demand is weak, inventory has increased, and supply is affected by production restrictions. The steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Iron ore**: On Monday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. Iron ore production may continue to decline, and supply and demand are in a state of balance. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: On Monday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. The prices of ferroalloys are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Soda ash**: On Monday, the main soda ash contract oscillated. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Glass**: On Monday, the main glass contract oscillated. Supply pressure is high, and there is an expectation of production reduction. Demand has slightly improved. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [7][8]. Non - ferrous metals and new energy - **Copper**: Non - farm payrolls data is not as expected, and the US economy is in a slowdown trend. Comex copper inventories are at a high level in recent years, and the price is affected by economic data and inventory [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Monday, the aluminum price rose slightly. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the impact of policies is limited. Short - term sentiment may fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The supply - side start - up rate has increased significantly, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline weakly in the short term [10]. - **Lithium carbonate**: On Monday, the main lithium carbonate contract declined. The market is concerned about the risk of mine shutdown, and short - term fluctuations are large [12]. - **Industrial silicon**: On Monday, the main industrial silicon contract declined. The social inventory is at a high level. The price may be affected by the anti - involution meeting [12]. - **Polysilicon**: On Monday, the main polysilicon contract declined. The inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [13]. Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil**: The market is evaluating OPEC+ production increase news, and the US threat to India has partially alleviated concerns about oversupply. The price is oscillating narrowly, waiting for risks to be determined [14]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices are weakening due to the dissipation of anti - involution sentiment. The inventory is in a neutral state with limited de - stocking, and it will maintain a weak oscillating pattern [14]. - **PX**: PTA processing fees are low, and PX demand has slightly decreased. The supply - demand pattern is still tight in the short term, and the price will oscillate, waiting for changes in PTA devices [14][15]. - **PTA**: PTA prices have fallen to the support level, processing fees are low, and downstream开工 has decreased. The price will continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Port inventories have slightly decreased, but supply pressure will gradually increase. The de - stocking drive will weaken, and it will oscillate in the near term [15]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber has decreased due to the overall decline of the sector. Terminal orders are average, and inventory has slightly increased. It can be shorted on rallies in the medium term [15]. - **Methanol**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **PP**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly due to strong supply and weak demand [16]. - **LLDPE**: The emotional premium has decreased. Supply has increased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Agricultural products - **US soybeans**: The优良率 of US soybeans is 69%, and attention should be paid to the risk of extreme high temperatures in the central and western US later in the week [17]. - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: Domestic soybean arrivals and oil mill operations are high. Soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed down, but the spot sentiment is weak. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans from August to September is high [17][18]. - **Soybean and rapeseed oil**: Soybean oil is supported in the short term, and rapeseed oil has a weak market. The inventory of soybean oil has increased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has slightly increased [18]. - **Palm oil**: Since July, Malaysian palm oil production has increased, and exports have weakened. Domestic imports have increased, and the price may continue to weaken, and the soybean - palm oil price difference may continue to rise [18]. - **Corn**: Corn trading is not active, supply is tight, and demand is weak. The supply - demand is in a weak balance in August [18]. - **Pigs**: Pig prices are weak, and there is a possibility of further pressure on prices in the short term [18].

今年3月，有菲律宾"钢铁大王"称号的华人郭从愿遭人绑架后，家属前后共付出约2.1亿比索（约合人民 币2693万元）的天价赎金，不料仍遭撕票，遗体于4月9日被发现，震惊当地商界和华人圈。 据披露，经调查，龚文丽实际上还涉嫌参与至少15起绑架案件，警方担心绑匪会因为证据不足而逍遥法 外，因此公开呼吁更多的受害者站出来指证。 4月30日，菲律宾警方发布悬赏令，追寻龚文丽下落的线索。 菲律宾反绑架大队在最新的信息披露中透露，今年3月发生的菲律宾华侨"钢铁大王"郭从愿（Anson Que）被绑架撕票案嫌犯龚文丽（音），是名副其实的"女魔头"，且只有26岁。 据报道，68岁的郭从愿，祖籍福建泉州永春，是"Elison Steel"公司的老板，也是菲律宾家喻户晓的钢铁 大王。他和司机于3月29日在布拉干省参加一场餐会后被绑架，其家属收到绑匪索要赎金的通知，焦急 地分了三次共付2.1亿比索（约合人民币2693万元）的天价赎金。 与郭从愿相识的一位知情人称，郭从愿是一位有情怀的企业家，"他是很好的慈善家，今年（2025年） 过年还回到福建永春县仙夹镇龙水村，他基本每年都回来两三次，为家乡建设捐了很多钱。"据报道， 郭从愿从19 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 今年3月，有菲律宾"钢铁大王"称号的华人郭从愿遭人绑架后，家属前后共付出约2.1亿比索（约合人民 币2693万元）的天价赎金，不料仍遭撕票，遗体于4月9日被发现，震惊当地商界和华人圈。 4月30日，菲律宾警方发布悬赏令，追寻龚文丽下落的线索。 5月19日，警方发言人证实一男一女两名嫌疑人于17日在长滩岛一度假村被捕，其中女性嫌疑人正是龚 文丽，她被指涉嫌引诱郭从愿前往他被绑架的地点，并用郭从愿的手机与其家属谈赎金。另一名男性嫌 疑人是美发师，他涉嫌用仿真面具帮助该女性嫌疑人隐藏身份。 据当时发布会上警方提供的证据照片显示，在抓捕现场，警方缴获了一个欧美女子面容的3D塑胶头 套。警方称，这是龚文丽在逃避警方追捕时，用于掩盖身份的道具。菲律宾国家警察局发言人让·法哈 尔多披露，龚文丽于2025年4月26日乘坐私人飞机抵达长滩岛后，就一直在不同酒店之间转悠，躲藏在 岛上。被捕时，龚文丽与她的父母在一起。 据报道，68岁的郭从愿，祖籍福建泉州永春，是"Elison Steel"公司的老板，也是菲律宾家喻户晓的钢铁 大王。他和司机于3月29日在布拉干省参加一场餐会后被绑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and risks. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [4] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 46.09 in July 2025, down 6.16% from the previous month [4] - The London gold spot price increased by 0.79% compared to the previous week [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The steel PMI new orders index reached a 9-month high in July [5] - Weekly price changes included rebar down 2.90%, cement price index down 1.37%, rubber down 2.33%, coke up 3.94%, coking coal up 0.98%, and iron ore down 2.55% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tire operating rates changed by -0.57 percentage points, +0.20 percentage points, +3.0 percentage points, and -3.94 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide and flat glass prices changed by -0.77% and 0.00% respectively, with flat glass gross profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1409 CNY/ton [6] - The flat glass operating rate was 75% this week [6] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for July was 49.40%, down 0.8 percentage points [7] - Major commodity prices showed cold-rolled down 0.19%, copper down 1.43%, and aluminum down 1.49%, with corresponding gross profit changes of +12.77%, -18.19%, and -10.26% [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate was 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points [7] Subcategories - Tungsten concentrate prices reached a new high since 2011 [8] - Graphite electrode price was 18,000 CNY/ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1357.4 CNY/ton, down 10.61% [8] - Electrolytic aluminum price was 20,490 CNY/ton, down 1.49%, with estimated profit at 2926 CNY/ton (excluding tax), down 10.26% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.27 this week [9] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 80 CNY/ton [9] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 390 CNY/ton, up 20 CNY/ton [9] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in July 2025 was 47.10%, down 0.6 percentage points [10] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1232.29 points this week, down 2.30% [10] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 78.40%, up 0.40 percentage points [10] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 1.75%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being commercial vehicles at -0.51% [11] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 index was 46.36% and 64.79% respectively [11] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 index is 0.57, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is in its final year of ultra-low emission transformation, with significant progress made in reducing carbon emissions and enhancing green development [1][2][3] Group 1: Ultra-Low Emission Transformation - As of July this year, 197 steel enterprises have completed ultra-low emission transformations, with 600 million tons of crude steel capacity achieving full-process ultra-low emissions, and 350 million tons undergoing key engineering modifications, representing over 80% of the national total capacity [1] - The investment for ultra-low emission transformation per ton of steel is approximately 474.35 yuan, with an average environmental operating cost of about 218.43 yuan per ton [1] - An estimated additional investment of around 200 billion yuan is required to achieve the target of over 80% capacity completion by the end of this year [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges and Strategies - The steel industry faces structural contradictions, including excess low-end products and insufficient high-end products, indicating a need for continuous optimization of product structure and energy-saving transformations [3] - The long-process steel enterprises are the main source of carbon dioxide emissions, accounting for about 98% of total emissions in the steel production sector [4] - There are challenges in data management, carbon emission management capabilities, and balancing emission reductions with growth, necessitating a phased and organized approach to market entry and quota control [4] Group 3: Carbon Market and Future Directions - The national carbon market now includes the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, covering over 8 billion tons of emissions from approximately 3,700 key emitting units, making it the largest carbon market globally [3] - The steel industry is encouraged to actively participate in the voluntary carbon market to effectively reduce compliance costs and enhance green development momentum [5]