Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the broader market by over 10% [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains and emphasizes the importance of seasonal demand recovery in the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. - It notes a significant tightening in copper concentrate supply, with processing fees dropping sharply, reflecting a supply-demand imbalance [4]. - The report also discusses the potential for gold prices to rise due to fluctuations in non-farm employment data, suggesting a favorable outlook for precious metals [4]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing a seasonal demand recovery, with supply chain issues in the Middle East continuing to impact prices [4]. - The steel industry is expected to benefit from positive signals from government meetings, indicating potential improvements in supply and demand dynamics [5]. Summary by Sections Copper - The report indicates a sharp decline in processing fees for copper concentrates, with the latest figures showing a processing cost of -56.0 USD per dry ton, down by 5.5 USD from the previous week [4]. - The LME copper price decreased by 4.7% to 12,808 USD per ton, while SHFE copper fell by 2.8% to 101,050 CNY per ton [4]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a slight decline, with SHFE gold at 1,140.8 CNY per gram and London spot gold at 5,168.0 USD per ounce, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.6% and 1.3% respectively [4]. - The report notes an increase in gold price volatility, which may indicate changing market sentiments [4]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum price rose by 7.2% to 3,385 USD per ton, while SHFE aluminum increased by 3.7% to 24,715 CNY per ton [4]. - The report highlights a high operating rate of 98.93% for electrolytic aluminum in February, with downstream demand showing signs of recovery post-holiday [4]. Minor Metals - Tungsten prices increased by 13.3% to 905,000 CNY per ton, with significant price adjustments noted for various tungsten products [4]. - The report mentions export controls on certain rare earth items, which may lead to increased demand for non-restricted products [4]. Steel - The report indicates a slight increase in steel prices, with SHFE rebar at 3,088 CNY per ton and hot-rolled coil at 3,230 CNY per ton, reflecting week-on-week increases of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively [5]. - Total steel inventory rose to 19.52 million tons, with a weekly consumption of 6.335 million tons, indicating a potential recovery in demand [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - The title of the report is "Zhonghui Futures Steel Weekly Report", with a report date of March 6, 2026, and the analysts are Chen Weichang, Li Hairong, and Li Weidong [1] - The short - term trend of the steel market may have a rebound in shock, while the medium - term trend should be vigilant against the risk of decline [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The black sector is currently facing the situation of "weak macro expectations + weak industrial reality + strong external disturbances". The Two Sessions are being held, and the government work report for 2026 and the 15th Five - Year Plan continues the thinking since last year, which is difficult to provide continuous upward drive for the black sector. The current impact of the Iran situation on the black series is relatively limited, and the supply - demand of the black series is still weak, with high inventory in East China, and the later destocking speed is the key. The pig iron output has decreased month - on - month, and the contradiction of high raw material inventory may be further intensified [2] Group 3: Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, the futures market is supported by the meetings and external disturbances, with limited downward space, and there is even a possibility of further rebound. The medium - term trend depends on whether the demand can improve and whether the external disturbances end. Currently, the problem in the industrial chain is that both the raw material and steel inventories are high. If steel mills continue to resume production, the downstream demand is difficult to bear; if steel mills reduce production, the pressure on raw materials will increase. If the later market enters the supply - demand trading logic, it is easy to have a decline under the negative feedback expectation [3] Group 4: Steel Data Monthly Data (December 31, 2025) - The monthly output of pig iron was 60720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%; the cumulative output was 836,040,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% - The monthly output of crude steel was 68180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%; the cumulative output was 960,810,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% - The monthly output of steel was 115310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the cumulative output was 1446,120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% - The monthly steel import was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7%; the cumulative import was 6060,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% - The monthly steel export was 11300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%; the cumulative export was 119020,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [7] Weekly Data (March 6, 2026) - The total weekly output of five major steel products was 7972,400 tons, a change of + 0.47%, and the cumulative output year - on - year was - 2.68% - The total weekly consumption was 6910,000 tons, a change of + 1270,000 tons, and the cumulative consumption year - on - year was - 1.52% - The total inventory was 19520,000 tons, a change of + 1058,900 tons, and the inventory year - on - year was + 4.93% [8] Group 5: Steel Production Profit - On March 5, 2026, in East China, the profit of blast - furnace - produced rebar was 110, the profit of electric - furnace - produced rebar with valley - rate electricity was 6, the profit of electric - furnace - produced rebar with flat - rate electricity was 87, and the profit of blast - furnace - produced hot - rolled coil was 20 - In North China, the profit of blast - furnace - produced rebar was 23, the profit of electric - furnace - produced rebar with valley - rate electricity was - 52, the profit of electric - furnace - produced rebar with flat - rate electricity was - 125, and the profit of blast - furnace - produced hot - rolled coil was - 42 - In Central China, the profit of blast - furnace - produced rebar was 175, the profit of electric - furnace - produced rebar with valley - rate electricity was - 21, the profit of electric - furnace - produced rebar with flat - rate electricity was - 151, and the profit of blast - furnace - produced hot - rolled coil was 55 [23][24] Group 6: Steel Demand Real Estate - Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities compared with the same period last year is 20% - Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease of the land transaction area in 100 cities is 60% [31] Export - In 2025, China's steel exports to Iran were only 270,000 tons, which can be ignored, but the exports to the seven Gulf countries were about 14,000,000 tons, accounting for about 11.7% of China's total steel exports. Due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, China's steel export orders and shipments to this region have been affected. Therefore, the war has a short - term adverse effect on China's steel exports, but if the war continues, the local steel shortage may need to be filled by China, forming an indirect benefit [39] Group 7: Steel Inventory and Basis Inventory - The rebar inventory has begun to accumulate rapidly, and the inventory level in Hangzhou is relatively high - The hot - rolled coil inventory is relatively high, which suppresses the basis [53][58] Basis - The rebar basis has declined this week but is still relatively high year - on - year. From the past rules, the basis is facing narrowing, and from the lunar calendar perspective, the inventory in Hangzhou has reached the highest level in the same period, and it may decline later - The hot - rolled coil basis fluctuates around - 0 with little change [53][58] Spread - The May - October spread of rebar fluctuates in the negative value range and strengthens slightly. Due to the high inventory level, it is difficult for the spread to continue to strengthen - The May - October spread of hot - rolled coil fluctuates around - 20 with little change [63][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the next month, steel prices may experience an opportunity for a volatile rebound. The core logic is that after the Spring Festival, downstream construction sites resume work intensively and infrastructure projects are accelerated, pushing steel demand into a seasonal period. Although the supply side will also increase, limited by the narrow profit margin of steel mills, the overall production increase power is limited, laying the foundation for the inventory to reach its peak and decline. The policy signals released during the Two Sessions have provided some confidence to the market. The reference price range for rebar is 2,950 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and for hot-rolled coil, it is 3,100 - 3,300 yuan/ton [3][47][48]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In February, steel futures fluctuated weakly. The main rebar contract reached a monthly high of 3,139 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a low of 3,005 yuan/ton, closing at 3,067 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan or 1.95%. The hot-rolled coil also declined, hitting a six - month low. Holiday factors led to the accumulation of industrial contradictions. With terminal construction sites shut down, demand weakened seasonally, while steel mill production remained stable. Under the situation of stable supply and weak demand, inventory increased significantly. After the Spring Festival, rebar rebounded and stabilized after reaching the key level of 3,000 yuan/ton, and the price showed signs of stabilization at the end of the month. In March, with the convening of the Two Sessions, the macro - economic outlook improved, and combined with the seasonal increase in post - holiday demand, the low - level support for steel futures strengthened [8]. 3.2 Steel Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Recovery - In February, steel production was generally stable, but there was a differentiation between long - and short - process production. The blast furnace production was relatively stable, with the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remaining around 80%. The electric furnace production contracted significantly, with the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces dropping sharply from 70.66% to 10.14%, and the capacity utilization rate decreasing from 55.71% to 7.35%. The short - process production decreased from 32.21 tons to 2.6 tons. The weekly production of rebar was 165 tons, a decrease of 35 tons from the previous month, while the weekly production of hot - rolled coil was 310 tons, a slight increase of 0.4 tons. In March, steel production is expected to increase steadily. After the Two Sessions, steel mill production will accelerate, and overall molten iron production is expected to gradually recover to around 240 tons. The production of hot - rolled coil will be affected to some extent. After the Spring Festival, the concentrated resumption of electric furnace production will lead to a rapid increase in rebar production. However, limited by the profit situation, the production increase power is insufficient, and the overall production will be stable [13][14]. 3.2.2 Pay Attention to the Peak Rhythm in Mid - March - In February, steel inventory increased during the Spring Festival due to the mismatch between supply and demand, with significant differentiation among varieties. As of March 5, the total inventory of five major steel products was 1,952 tons, an increase of 614 tons from the previous month and 91 tons more than the same period last year. Although the total inventory is at a relatively low level in recent lunar years, it is significantly higher year - on - year. The social inventory and mill inventory both increased. The social inventory reached 1,403 tons, an increase of 462 tons, mainly due to the stagnation of spot trading during the holiday and the passive inventory increase of traders. The mill inventory was 549 tons, an increase of 151 tons, mainly from the backlog of construction steel in the mills. The inventory of construction steel increased the most, with the total rebar inventory reaching 876 tons, an increase of 356 tons from the previous month and 15 tons more than the same period last year. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 472 tons, an increase of 112 tons from the previous month and 43 tons more than the same period last year, reaching the highest level in recent lunar years. After the Lantern Festival, the construction of downstream construction sites resumed, and the inventory of construction steel is expected to reach its peak in mid - March [19]. 3.2.3 The Intensity of Demand Recovery Remains to be Observed - In February, steel demand was significantly affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and all varieties declined. The national building materials trading volume decreased by 29.40% month - on - month. The rebar delivery volume in Hangzhou dropped to 10,300 tons, and the cement delivery volume dropped to 22 tons, both reaching new lows in recent years. The apparent demand data also weakened. The minimum apparent demand for rebar dropped to 41 tons, for hot - rolled coil to 247 tons, and for five major steel products to 537 tons. The terminal performance was generally weak, with real estate investment being poor. From January to February, the total land acquisition amount of key real estate enterprises decreased by 52.4% year - on - year, and the new construction and construction recovery were weak. The formation of physical work in infrastructure was lagging, with limited short - term pulling effect. In the manufacturing sector, passenger car sales decreased month - on - month, the production schedule of three major white goods in March decreased by 4% year - on - year, and external demand was affected by RMB appreciation and tariffs, with export orders declining marginally. In March, with the resumption of construction sites and the development of infrastructure, demand may improve marginally, but concerns in the real estate and manufacturing sectors still exist, and the intensity of the recovery remains to be observed [22]. 3.2.4 Positive and Steady Macroeconomic Policies, Real Estate Still at Risk - Fiscal policy continues to be positive, aiming at "increasing efforts and improving efficiency" by moderately expanding the expenditure scale, optimizing the expenditure structure, and providing direct support to key areas such as technological innovation, green transformation, and people's livelihood. Tax cuts and fee reductions are also continued to stimulate market vitality. Monetary policy remains prudent and flexible, emphasizing "precision and effectiveness". It maintains reasonable and sufficient liquidity, deepens the use of structural tools, and guides financial resources to weak links such as small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and rural revitalization. - In the real estate sector, policies focus on "stabilizing expectations, preventing risks, and benefiting people's livelihood". On the supply side, the primary goal is to "ensure the completion of buildings", promoting the resumption of work on suspended projects through special loans. Land supply is optimized, with high - inventory cities reducing supply and population - inflow cities increasing the supply of affordable housing land. On the demand side, policies are implemented according to the local situation. Core cities relax purchase and loan restrictions, lower down - payment ratios and interest rates to support rigid and improved housing needs. Third - and fourth - tier cities issue subsidies and increase the housing provident fund quota to stimulate consumption. At the same time, pre - sale funds are strictly managed to prevent the debt risks of real estate enterprises, and high - quality real estate enterprises are supported in financing to promote the industry's transition to a new development model. - The government report emphasizes infrastructure as an important means to stabilize growth and adjust the structure, focusing on the coordinated development of traditional and new infrastructure. Traditional infrastructure focuses on short - board areas such as transportation, water conservancy, and energy, while new infrastructure targets 5G base stations, data centers, and charging piles. The report also emphasizes the optimization of investment structure, strict control of inefficient and repetitive construction, and the improvement of the whole - life - cycle efficiency of infrastructure. - In the manufacturing sector, it is emphasized to focus on the real economy, promoting the high - end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. R & D investment is increased, enterprises are supported to break through key core technologies, and "little giants" and advanced manufacturing clusters are cultivated. In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [24][26][27][28]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Supply side: In February, steel supply was generally stable, with blast furnace production remaining stable and the electric furnace operating rate dropping sharply, leading to a significant decline in rebar production. Hot - rolled coil supply remained high due to the support of long - process production. In March, with the concentrated resumption of electric furnace production after the Spring Festival and the recovery of blast furnace operation after the Two Sessions, steel supply will gradually increase, but limited by the low profit margin of steel mills, the overall production increase power is insufficient, and the supply will show a moderate recovery trend. - Demand side: In February, steel demand was significantly affected by the Spring Festival holiday and weakened. The apparent consumption of rebar dropped to a minimum of 41 tons, showing typical seasonal off - peak characteristics. The terminal performance was generally weak, with real estate enterprises significantly reducing land acquisition, new construction and construction recovery being weak, and the formation of physical work in infrastructure being lagging. In the manufacturing sector, automobile sales declined month - on - month, and the production schedule of home appliances decreased. Looking forward to March, with the concentrated resumption of downstream construction sites and the development of infrastructure projects, demand will enter a seasonal recovery channel, but the drag from the real estate sector still exists, and concerns in the manufacturing sector remain. The intensity of demand recovery remains to be observed [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the black sector oscillated and rose, with raw materials outperforming finished products. The futures market was bullish due to the Middle - East conflict, and the domestic macro - policy had a neutral impact on the market. Steel demand slowly recovered, and inventory was still accumulating. Raw material inventories showed different trends, and iron ore prices strengthened significantly [3]. - Steel, coking coal, and iron ore are all expected to oscillate strongly. Steel is in the inventory - accumulation cycle, and it is expected that inventory will start to decline in the fourth week after the Spring Festival. Coking coal inventory is structurally differentiated, and coke production is at a low level with profits decreasing. Iron ore may have a phased inventory reduction, and the short - term driver is the restricted circulation of some varieties [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - Last week, the black sector oscillated and rose, with raw materials performing better than finished products [3][5] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the energy and chemical sector in the futures market rose sharply [3][7] 03 Spot Price - The first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and iron ore prices strengthened significantly [9] 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mill profits deteriorated, and the valuation of rebar futures was low, being below the electric - arc furnace off - peak electricity cost [4][11] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand slowly recovered, but inventory was still accumulating. It is expected that inventory will start to decline in the fourth week after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the progress of demand recovery [4][13] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Affected by production restrictions in North China, the molten iron output dropped significantly last week. Steel mill iron ore inventories decreased, and port inventories increased slightly. Iron ore shipments have recovered to a relatively high level, but the arrival volume in March is expected to be low, and iron ore may have a phased inventory reduction [4][22] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The raw coal output increased last week but was still at a low level. The total coking coal inventory continued to decline, with upstream mines accumulating inventory and downstream coking plants reducing inventory [4][25] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production hovered at a low level last week, and inventory accumulated in the middle and upstream. After the first round of price cuts, coke enterprise profits decreased [4][27] 09 Variety Spreads - Steel mill's on - paper profits decreased, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar narrowed [29] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - The government work report set GDP growth at 4.5% - 5%, CPI increase at about 2%, urban survey unemployment rate at about 5.5%, and planned to create over 12 million new urban jobs. The deficit rate is planned to be about 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year. Local government special bonds of 4.4 trillion yuan are planned, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued [35] - As of March 7, 2026, the Middle - East conflict has entered its eighth day, and the situation continues to escalate [35] - China's manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [35] - 95% of coal - fired power generation capacity, 90% of steel production capacity, 360 million tons of coking capacity, and 470 million tons of cement clinker capacity in China have completed ultra - low emission transformation [35] - The net reduction of non - farm employment in the US in February was 92,000, far lower than the market expectation of an increase of about 55,000 - 60,000. The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.4% [35] - As of the week ending February 28, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 213,000, lower than the market expectation of 215,000 [35]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 6, 2026 - A-share market: The three major A-share indexes rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% to 4124.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59% to 14172.63 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.38% to 3229.30 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 193.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Index futures: The CSI 300 index fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 4660.44, a rise of 12.75 [2] 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted coke index trended stronger, closing at 1705.3, a rise of 24.3. Coke production increased, but inventory pressure emerged. Steel mills' demand was mainly for rigid needs and was suppressed [4] - Coking coal: The weighted coking coal index was strong, closing at 1145.0 yuan, a rise of 20.0. Domestic coal mine production resumed, but imports were limited. Inventory was mixed, and costs were rising [5] 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict, the US sugar and Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose. As of February 28, Guangxi's sugar production and sales decreased year-on-year [5][6] 2.3 Rubber - Due to factors like large short - term gains and global economic uncertainty, Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed slightly higher. The inventory and warehouse receipts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber changed [6] 2.4 Soybean Meal - In the international market, CBOT soybean prices rose. In the domestic market, the soybean meal main contract rose. Inventory decreased, and costs provided support [6] 2.5 Live Pigs - The live pig main contract rose slightly. The market was in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with sufficient supply and weak post - holiday demand [6] 2.6 Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened low, fluctuated, and then rebounded. Domestic supply increased, inventory accumulated, and downstream demand was weak [6] 2.7 Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15310 yuan/ton. Inventory increased, and global cotton consumption was affected by conflicts [6][7] 2.8 Logs - The log 2605 main contract had certain price fluctuations. Spot prices were stable, and future factors to be concerned about were mentioned [7] 2.9 Iron Ore - The iron ore 2605 main contract rose. Shipping increased, arrivals decreased, and prices were in a volatile trend due to production restrictions [7] 2.10 Asphalt - The asphalt 2604 main contract rose. Refinery production resumed, and prices might follow oil prices [7] 2.11 Alumina - The alumina market was in a situation of increasing supply and demand. Bauxite prices might be supported, and domestic supply and demand both increased [7] 2.12 Shanghai Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market also had a situation of increasing supply and demand. Supply might increase slightly, and demand was expected to recover [7] 2.13 Steel - Steel prices were volatile during the Two Sessions. After the Two Sessions, prices would return to fundamentals, and pressure remained. Demand recovery was to be observed [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the commodity market next week. If the war intensifies, energy and chemical products are expected to perform strongly, while commodities sensitive to interest rates and worried about weakening demand may perform weakly. The expected order of performance is energy, chemicals > agricultural products > black commodities > non - ferrous metals and precious metals [2][18][19] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 One - Week Review: Divergent Commodity Trends, Leading by Energy and Chemicals - This week (03.02 - 03.01), commodity trends were divergent. The performance order of sectors was energy > oil chemical > coal chemical > black > agricultural products > non - ferrous > precious metals. Due to the escalating US - Iran conflict, supply - side disturbances persisted. On Monday, commodities generally rose, with energy, chemicals, and precious metals seeing large increases. From Tuesday, as the market revised up the expected duration of the war and inflation rose, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations were revised down, causing precious metals and non - ferrous metals to fall, while energy and chemical products continued to rise [1][12] 3.1.2 Next - Week Outlook: Geopolitical Dominance, Continued Strength in Energy and Chemicals - Geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the commodity market. The market has revised up the war duration, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, with a low probability of short - term supply recovery. Geopolitical risks are increasing global stagflation pressure, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are being revised down. Domestic policies announced during the Two Sessions are in line with market expectations. If the war intensifies, energy and chemical products will remain strong, while some commodities sensitive to interest rates may be weak. The expected performance order is energy, chemicals > agricultural products > black commodities > non - ferrous metals and precious metals [2][18][19] 3.2 Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Data Tracking - The US dollar index strengthened, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose. As of March 6, the US dollar index rose 1.34% to 98.9558, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 18BP to 4.15%. The Sino - US 10 - year Treasury yield spread was inverted by 237.3BP. The US - Iran war exceeded market expectations, leading to increased risk - aversion, rising oil and chemical prices, and a significant downward revision of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The slowdown in the US February non - farm employment data may intensify concerns about stagflation. The RMB's appreciation pace slowed [22] 3.3 Upstream Raw Material Prices - Due to the escalating US - Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz transportation was severely affected, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices. The resonance of energy substitution, cost transmission, rising transportation costs, and increased market risk - aversion also led to an increase in coking coal prices [27] 3.4 Production - End High - Frequency Data - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises decreased, while the daily output of clean coal from 523 sample mines increased. The production of copper tubes and electrolytic aluminum in China increased. The EIA US crude oil production data was presented. The methanol capacity utilization rate decreased, the PE capacity utilization rate slightly decreased, the PTA plant operating rate increased, the PVC operating rate decreased, the operating rate of Chinese soda ash enterprises slightly increased, the capacity utilization rate of float glass enterprises was low, the operating rates of automobile tire all - steel and semi - steel tires increased, and the production of soybean meal from Chinese full - sample enterprises' pressing plants increased [33][36][52] 3.5 Inventory - End High - Frequency Data - Gold and silver inventories decreased slightly. Most industrial product inventories continued to accumulate above the seasonal level. Inventories of copper, iron ore, methanol, PVC, soda ash, glass, etc. were at historical highs, and inventories of aluminum and steel were also increasing significantly. The key to inventory reduction is whether demand can improve significantly [53] 3.6 Demand - End High - Frequency Data - This year's growth - stabilization goals are pragmatic, with more attention on development quality, economic structure adjustment, and long - term development potential. The real - estate market data was divergent this week: the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased slightly, the sales area in first - tier cities increased but at a slower pace, and second - hand housing listing prices declined. However, the second - hand housing listing volume was low, and the second - hand housing transaction area continued to rise. This week, the issuance and net financing scale of government bonds decreased, and the cumulative net financing of government bonds this year was at a historical high. The subway passenger volume in the top ten cities and the apparent consumption of rebar increased seasonally [74][75][76] 3.7 Key Commodity Basis - Data on the basis of various key commodities such as gold, copper, aluminum, rebar, iron ore, coking coal, crude oil, methanol, PTA, PVC, pig, and soybean meal were presented [86][89][92] 3.8 Commodity Price Ratios - Data on various commodity price ratios such as gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, gold - oil ratio, copper - oil ratio, copper - aluminum ratio, steel - ore ratio, agricultural - industrial ratio, and pig - grain ratio were presented [96][99][103] 3.9 Summary and Outlook - The expected performance order is energy, chemicals > agricultural products > black commodities > non - ferrous metals and precious metals [3][104]

文字早评 2026/03/09 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、两会首提"算电一体"，相关个股受到市场热议； 4、深圳市龙岗区人工智能署就 OpenClaw&OPC 发展公开征询意见。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：7.50%/4.95%/8.74%/6.69%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：10.92%/7.70%/13.19%/9.63%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：10.87%/8.93%/15.74%/11.40%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：2.19%/1.31%/2.69%/3.78%。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好，油价持续上涨、美联储降息预期减弱，美债收益率快速攀升，国内 两会延续了适度宽松的货币、更积极的财政政策，建议关注以及战局转变，注意控制风险。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周五，TL 主力合约收于 112.780 ，环比变化 0.01%；T 主力合约收于 108.535 ，环比变化 -0.01%；TF 主力合约收于 106.110 ，环比变化 0.00%；TS 主力合约收于 102.496 ，环比变化-0.01%。 消息方面：1、 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 9 日 螺纹钢：震荡反复 热轧卷板：震荡反复 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,088 | 8 | 0.26 | | 期 货 | HC2605 | 3,230 | 10 | 0.31 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 704,303 | 1,798,732 | -38,543 | | | HC2605 | 340,329 | 1,398,808 | -31,275 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 杭州 | 3190 3250 | 3190 3250 | 0 0 | | | 螺纹钢 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, while the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - The production of short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region during the Spring Festival is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons, and the daily output of 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui during the shutdown period is about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the support for prices is not strong [4] - The later focus is on macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, the aluminum price continued to rise due to geopolitical risks. Trump said that the US is "seriously considering" expanding the scope of strikes, and the Mediterranean Shipping Company will levy an emergency fuel surcharge on relevant goods [3] - Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola are still ramping up production, but the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has affected the production or shipment of some aluminum plants, and the daily output is expected to decrease [4] - After the festival, as downstream enterprises resume work, demand has recovered, the proportion of molten aluminum has increased by about 8 percentage points week - on - week, and the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 2.5 percentage points to 59.5% [4] - The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots continued to accumulate. On Monday, the inventory increased by 15,000 tons compared with last Thursday. In March, the ingot casting volume of electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain high, and the short - term inventory accumulation trend will continue [4] - If the geopolitical conflict continues, the global electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to tighten, and the aluminum price has strong upward momentum. The short - term supply is blocked by macro - factors, and the aluminum price is expected to be strong. The follow - up evolution of macro - events should be concerned [4] - The later focus is on changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at the mine end, and the release of consumption [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of oscillating and trending stronger [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of finished products mainly fluctuated last week. The current market focus is on the energy and chemical sectors, and the black market as a whole is relatively quiet. However, on Thursday and Friday last week, coking coal and iron ore saw a catch - up rise driven by the energy sector, and the finished products followed suit, with the price center shifting slightly upwards. The probability of the finished products being significantly driven is low, and its price is still determined by its own fundamentals, especially the downstream startup situation [2] - The finished products are expected to operate in an oscillating and stronger manner [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Production and Capacity Utilization - In February, a total of 58 national construction steel production enterprises carried out production cut and maintenance, an increase of 36 compared with the previous month. This round of production cut and maintenance affected the crude steel output in February by 3.9143 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 441.77%; it affected the construction steel output by 4.072 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 239.62% [2] - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.32%, a decrease of 2.13 percentage points compared with the previous week and a decrease of 1.22 percentage points year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 38.1%, a decrease of 1.73 percentage points compared with the previous week and a decrease of 15.15 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2759 million tons, a decrease of 56,900 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 29,200 tons year - on - year [2] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 20.71%, an increase of 13.36 percentage points compared with the previous week and a decrease of 31.38 percentage points year - on - year; the average operating rate was 24.71%, an increase of 14.57 percentage points compared with the previous week and a decrease of 42.22 percentage points year - on - year [2] Later Concerns - The later concerns include macro - policies and downstream demand [3]