Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The US January non - farm report was overall strong, pushing back traders' expectations of the first interest rate cut from June to July. China's January CPI year - on - year increase fell to 0.2%, and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.4%. It's expected that Shanghai Tin will experience short - term shock adjustments, with attention on the 400,000 - yuan resistance level [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of Shanghai Tin was 391,320 yuan/ton, down 3,380 yuan; the closing price of the March - April contract of Shanghai Tin was down 480 yuan, with a 320 - yuan increase in the difference. LME 3 - month tin was 50,065 US dollars/ton, up 835 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin was 28,260 lots, down 3,027 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin was - 6,462 lots, down 973 lots. LME tin total inventory was 7,550 tons, up 120 tons. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 8,750 tons, down 1,718 tons. LME tin cancelled warrants were 375 tons, down 25 tons. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai Futures Exchange were 10,296 tons, up 3,780 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 391,650 yuan/ton, up 2,950 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 394,110 yuan/ton, up 6,160 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 330 yuan/ton, up 6,330 yuan. LME tin premium (0 - 3) was - 152 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates was 17,600 tons, up 2,500 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrates was 377,650 yuan/ton, up 2,950 yuan; the average processing fee was 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrates was 381,650 yuan/ton, up 2,950 yuan; the average processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin was 2,239.1 tons, up 323.25 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 248,370 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.5287 million tons, up 138,700 tons. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 142,900 tons, down 45,000 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Li Qiang called for comprehensively promoting AI technological innovation, industrial development and application. China's January CPI year - on - year increase fell from 0.8% to 0.2% due to the lunar new year month shift and international oil price changes; January PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.4%. The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January [3] 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, with a continued increase expected in Q1, and a slight rise in tin ore processing fees. On the smelting side, most enterprises' raw material inventory was low, in a loss - making situation, and refined tin production was limited due to more year - end overhauls, but there was pressure for production to rebound after the Spring Festival. In terms of imports, Indonesia's tin exports increased, and the import window gradually opened, increasing import pressure. On the demand side, the development of the AI field will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices rebounded, inventory increased, and the spot premium was maintained at 2,000 yuan/ton; LME inventory remained stable, and the spot premium rebounded [3] 3.8 Technical Analysis - Positions remained stable, prices were adjusted, and the trading between long and short positions became less active [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of lithium carbonate may show a situation of weak supply and demand due to the influence of the pre - holiday period. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 149,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 840 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 106,902 hands, a decrease of 1,086 hands; the position of the main contract is 353,975 hands, a decrease of 2,556 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 3,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,940 yuan; the warehouse receipt of GZFE is 37,282 hands, an increase of 1,755 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 138,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 139,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 11,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,840 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,950 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 14,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 6,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 59,470 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.47 tons; the monthly export volume is 911.90 tons, an increase of 152.66 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 49%, an increase of 2 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The monthly output of power batteries is 168,000 MWh, a decrease of 33,700 MWh; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 130,000 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate is 47,000 yuan/ton; the price of lithium cobaltate is 400,500 yuan/ton; the price of ternary materials (811 type) in China is 202,500 yuan/ton; the price of ternary materials (622 power type) in China is 182,500 yuan/ton; the price of ternary materials (523 single - crystal type) in China is 197,500 yuan/ton; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 0%, a decrease of 50 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 52,400 yuan/ton; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 0%, a decrease of 60 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,041,000 vehicles, a decrease of 677,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 945,000 vehicles, a decrease of 765,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 40.28%, a decrease of 7.65 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 945,000 vehicles, an increase of 1,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 302,000 vehicles, an increase of 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 302,000 vehicles, an increase of 152,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total holding of call options is 102,942 contracts, an increase of 6,101 contracts; the total holding of put options is 93,278 contracts, an increase of 4,780 contracts; the put - call ratio of total holdings is 90.61%, a decrease of 0.7727 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.65%, an increase of 0.0320 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - In January, the total output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%; the sales volume was 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. The sales volume of power batteries was 102.7 GWh, accounting for 69.0% of the total sales, a month - on - month decrease of 28.6% and a year - on - year increase of 63.2%; the sales volume of energy - storage batteries was 46.1 GWh, accounting for 31.0% of the total sales, a month - on - month decrease of 17.0% and a year - on - year increase of 164.0%. The domestic power battery loading volume was 42.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 57.2% and a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. The loading volume of ternary batteries was 9.4 GWh, accounting for 22.3% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 48.6% and a year - on - year increase of 9.6%; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 32.7 GWh, accounting for 77.7% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 59.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.1% [2] - Most key automobile enterprises have compressed the payment period to within 60 days, with an average payment period of about 54 days (about 10 days shorter than the same period last year), and 4 enterprises have an average payment period of less than 50 days [2] - Sichuan Province supports automobile replacement and renewal. In 2026, individual consumers who transfer their registered passenger cars through sale and purchase new - energy passenger cars in the "Catalogue of New - Energy Vehicle Models Exempted from Vehicle Purchase Tax" or fuel - powered passenger cars with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less will be given a one - time subsidy. For those who exchange for eligible new - energy passenger cars, a subsidy of 8% of the new - car sales price will be given, with a maximum subsidy of 15,000 yuan; for those who exchange for eligible fuel - powered passenger cars, a subsidy of 6% of the new - car sales price will be given, with a maximum subsidy of 13,000 yuan [2] - In January 2026, the automobile industry in China maintained stable operation. The production and sales of automobiles were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively, with the production increasing by 0.01% year - on - year and the sales decreasing by 3.2% year - on - year. The new - energy automobile market maintained stable operation, with production and sales of 1.041 million and 0.945 million respectively, increasing by 2.5% and 0.1% year - on - year. The commercial vehicle market continued the positive trend, with both production and sales maintaining double - digit growth year - on - year in January. In terms of automobile exports, it continued to grow. The export of new - energy vehicles maintained high - speed growth, with 302,000 vehicles exported, a year - on - year increase of 100% [2] 3.8 Technical Analysis - The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are near the 0 axis, and the red bars are slightly converging [2]

Group 1 - The core initiative by Yong'an Futures focuses on enhancing investor education through innovative measures centered around the principles of "specialization, innovation, diversity, and engagement" [1] - The company has established an investor education think tank and launched an intelligent customer service feature named "Anzai Smart Answer" [1] - Yong'an Futures has created a knowledge base with over 100,000 Q&A entries and is releasing educational products in various formats to improve the application of futures tools and risk management awareness [1] Group 2 - This initiative may indirectly influence market attention by enhancing the company's service capabilities [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-12 对中东局势的担忧持续扰动油价，化⼯ 延续震荡整理 彭博报道称美国正考虑扣押载有伊朗原油的油轮，并可能在伊朗核问 题谈判失败的情况下向该地区增派航母战斗群；以色列总理也访美，敦促 美国总统推动全面遏制伊朗在中东的军事活动及其弹道导弹计划，而非满 足于达成范围更窄的核协议。这一系列事件引发了市场对中东地缘局势紧 张的担忧。原油价格强势，一些成品油出现了跟涨不力的情况，例如亚洲 地区的汽油裂解价差近期走势偏弱，绝对值处于近五年同期低位，成品油 裂差是原油最直接的需求指标。 板块逻辑： 近期聚酯产业链企业相继发布检修计划，强化了聚酯链格局向好的预 期。2月10日CCF报道，华东一250万吨装置即日起停车，重启时间不定， 该装置占PTA总产能比例为2.71%；3-5月仍有装置做出检修计划。2月11日 CCF报道，连云港一套90万吨MEG装置停车转产，这影响了MEG约3%的供 应。聚酯三大产品长丝、短纤和瓶片的检修自1月中旬就陆续开启。春节 后聚酯开工攀升，而原料仍有检修，原料供应缩减或供给持稳而需求端攀 升，原料偏强格 ...

uplied Volstility Surfax Time to MatuGty ITC 国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 世界500强投资公司 国贸期货股份有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 IIC 国贸期货 HN AV ATE H F 投资咨询号: Z0000116 国留斯特研究 2026/2/12 从业资格号:F0251925 金融衍生品中心 李泽 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 行情回顾 指数 收盘价 涨跌幅 (%) 成交额(亿元) 成交量(亿) 3088. 4571 0. 03 1140. 86 36. 85 上证50 4713. 8185 173. 39 沪深300 -0. 22 4334. 29 273. 23 中证1000 8239. 513 -0. 13 4380. 65 中金所股指期权成交情况 期权成交量 期权持仓量 认购期权 认沽期权 认购期权 认沽期权 持仓量 日成交量 指数 持仓量 持仓量 (万张) 成交量 成交量 PCR (万张) PCR 上证50 2. 04 1. 29 0. 75 0. 58 8. 30 5.04 3. 26 0. 65 沪深300 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to continue its slow - bull market. Factors such as policy support, stable market funds, and improving economic data create favorable conditions for the market. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices [11][12]. - The sentiment in the bond market may turn cautious after the Spring Festival. Although the central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose, factors such as the approaching important meetings and the possible reversal of some investors' behaviors may lead to a more cautious attitude [14]. - In the agricultural and sideline products sector, different products have different trends. For example, soybean meal is expected to gradually reduce inventory, while the price of live pigs is likely to remain low. Corn and starch are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and the price of sugar is expected to be weak [18][22][25]. - In the ferrous metals sector, steel prices may face pressure after the Spring Festival. The supply - demand structure of steel is weakening, and factors such as iron - water production, inventory accumulation, and coal mine resumption need to be monitored. The coking coal and coke market is affected by factors such as coal mine shutdowns and international coal market changes, with prices showing wide - range fluctuations. Iron ore prices are expected to be weak due to the weakening fundamentals [42][44][47]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to maintain a cautious and optimistic trend. Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level consolidation in the short term but have a long - term upward trend. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise if the Mozal aluminum plant's production reduction plan is implemented [52][56][58]. - In the shipping innovation sector, the container shipping market has a weakening price increase expectation in March and will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to factors such as shipping capacity deployment, geopolitical situations, and the implementation of price increase announcements [83]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are mainly driven by geopolitical factors in the short term, with a wide - range fluctuation. LPG prices are supported by high international costs in the short term but are restricted by weak domestic supply and demand in the long term. Other chemical products such as asphalt, natural gas, and fuel oil also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [88][90][96]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Finance 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Analysis**: Policy guidance consolidates the stable and positive trend. Market risk appetite has decreased, and the enthusiasm for A - share investment has cooled, laying the foundation for a slow - bull market. Economic data is improving, which is beneficial to the performance of listed companies. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices. The futures market has already reduced positions in advance, and if the market improves after the Spring Festival, the basis discount may further narrow [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to go long on dips; for arbitrage, consider the spot - futures arbitrage of IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF; for options, use the bull spread strategy [13]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Analysis**: The central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose. Although inflation indicators are recovering, the impact on the bond market is limited. The market risk appetite has stabilized, but the bond market sentiment is still affected by the Spring Festival holiday. In the short term, the probability of a policy interest rate cut is low, and the bond market sentiment may turn cautious after the Spring Festival [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to try to short TS contracts on rallies; for arbitrage, pay attention to the phased long - T - contract inter - delivery spread trading [15]. 3.2 Agricultural and Sideline Products 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - **Analysis**: The international soybean market is strong, but the upside space is limited. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to gradually decrease [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [20]. 3.2.2 Live Pigs - **Analysis**: The supply pressure of live pigs is obvious, and the price is at a low level. The futures price mainly follows the spot price, and the downward space is limited [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [23]. 3.2.3 Corn - **Analysis**: The US corn production is stable, and the import profit is high. After the Spring Festival, the supply of corn in Northeast China will increase, and the price may decline slightly. The starch price is expected to be relatively strong [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, try to buy US corn 03 below 420 cents/bu and short 03 corn on rallies; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips; for options, use the bear put spread strategy for 03 corn [26]. 3.2.4 Peanuts - **Analysis**: The peanut price is stable before the Spring Festival, and the 05 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take a short - long position on dips for the 05 contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, try to sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [28]. 3.2.5 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar price is expected to be weak, and the domestic sugar price is likely to follow the weak trend [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, use the high - short and low - cover strategy for the domestic Zhengzhou sugar 5 - month contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell call options [30]. 3.2.6 Cotton - **Analysis**: The cotton price is supported, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to oscillate in a range, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger. It is recommended to hold a light position during the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [32]. 3.2.7 Eggs - **Analysis**: The egg demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to short the 6 - month contract on rallies [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short the 6 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [34]. 3.2.8 Apples - **Analysis**: The apple inventory is low, and the cost of warehouse receipts is high. The price of the 5 - month contract is expected to be strong in the short term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and short the 10 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage, go long on the 5 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract; for options, wait and see [36]. 3.2.9 Oils and Fats - **Analysis**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is at a high level, but the total inventory of Malaysia and Indonesia is not loose. The US biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. The domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the supply is generally sufficient. The policy of Canadian rapeseed is uncertain, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slightly decreasing [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct P59 and Y59 reverse arbitrage; for options, wait and see [38]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Steel - **Analysis**: After the Spring Festival, steel mills may resume production, and the steel supply will increase. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply - demand structure is weakening, and the steel price may face pressure. However, the steel price valuation is low, and the decline is limited [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is expected to be weak and oscillating; for arbitrage, short the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread and the rebar - coking coal ratio on rallies; for options, wait and see [43]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Analysis**: Coal mines are on holiday during the Spring Festival, and the supply is reduced. The impact of the Spring Festival holiday on the Mongolian coal port is limited. The domestic coal market is affected by international and domestic factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. The coking coal valuation is not high, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conduct band trading; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [46]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - **Analysis**: The iron ore supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is expected to be weak after the Spring Festival [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a small number of short positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [48]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Analysis**: The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are relatively stable, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday and go long on dips after the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options [50]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - **Analysis**: The gold and silver market has stabilized and recovered after the adjustment. The trading mainline is expected to return to factors such as great - power games and the US interest - rate cycle. It is recommended to control risks during the holiday [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conservative investors can exit long positions on rallies, and aggressive investors can hold long positions based on the 20 - day moving average with a light position. It is recommended to hold an empty position for silver; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, switch futures long positions to buy out - of - the - money call options for gold, and use the bull call spread strategy for silver [53]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - **Analysis**: The non - farm payroll data is contradictory, and the asset volatility is high. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium is in a supply - surplus pattern. Platinum has a stronger upward driving force [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be cautiously bullish and buy on dips; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; for options, wait and see [55]. 3.4.3 Copper - **Analysis**: The copper price has fluctuated sharply recently. After the adjustment, the fundamentals are healthier, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to control positions during the Spring Festival [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is in a high - level consolidation, and it is recommended to control positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [57]. 3.4.4 Aluminum - **Analysis**: The macro - economic expectations are volatile. If the Mozal aluminum plant reduces production as planned, the aluminum price will be strong; otherwise, the upward momentum will be weakened. The domestic inventory is accumulating, which suppresses the price [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate between 22,800 - 24,200 yuan. In the long term, if the production - reduction plan is implemented, be bullish on dips; pay attention to the implementation of the production - reduction plan [59]. 3.4.5 Alumina - **Analysis**: The alumina supply is uncertain during the holiday. If the production reduction continues, the futures price may fluctuate; otherwise, it will be under pressure [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the main contract is expected to oscillate between 2,780 - 2,880 yuan. It is recommended to be cautious. If there are expectations for policies, buy a small number of call options. In the long term, be bearish on rallies in the surplus pattern; if the supply - demand situation improves, the price may rebound [61]. 3.4.6 Zinc - **Analysis**: The zinc concentrate supply shortage is expected to ease. The refined zinc production is expected to decrease. The downstream demand is affected by the Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended to control positions and hedge inventory [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions and hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, buy LME and sell SHFE; for options, buy one - times out - of - the - money put options and two - times out - of - the - money call options [63]. 3.4.7 Lead - **Analysis**: The lead concentrate supply is in short supply, and the production of primary lead is profitable, but the production increase is limited. The production of recycled lead is affected by losses and holidays. The downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and control positions [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [66]. 3.4.8 Nickel - **Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations drive the inflow of funds into the non - ferrous metal sector. The nickel supply is expected to be in surplus without quota restrictions, but there may be a shortage if the quota is limited. The nickel price is supported by cost and strategic demand. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [67][68]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the NI2604 contract with an exercise price of 134,000 [68]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel cost is rising, and the inventory is increasing. The price is affected by nickel and the macro - economic environment. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see [70]. 3.4.10 Polysilicon - **Analysis**: The polysilicon spot price is under pressure, and the market is in a state of disorderly fluctuation before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, if the price drops to the previous low, it can be considered to go long or buy call options [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see and look for a good safety margin; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, buy call options when appropriate [72]. 3.4.11 Industrial Silicon - **Analysis**: The industrial - silicon production is reducing, and the basis is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 8,200 - 9,100 yuan. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait for the price to stabilize; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, there is no opportunity [73]. 3.4.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Analysis**: The lithium - carbonate demand is improving, and the supply will increase in March, resulting in inventory accumulation. However, the market tolerance for inventory is high, and the industry trend is positive. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [74]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the lc2605 contract with an exercise price of 140,000 [75]. 3.4.13 Tin - **Analysis**: The tin price is relatively resilient. The tin - ore import is stable, and the production is expected to change slightly. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is recovering marginally. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [77][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions before the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [79]. 3.5 Shipping Innovation 3.5.1 Container Shipping - **Analysis**: The price increase expectation in March is weakening, and the market will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. The freight rate is under pressure, and the supply and demand are affected by factors such as shipping capacity deployment and geopolitical situations [83]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see before the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct 6 - 10 positive arbitrage rolling operations [84].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw an increase in gold futures prices during the daytime trading session, with a notable rise in trading volume but a decrease in open interest [1] - The main gold futures contract (2604) closed at 1126.12 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.03% or 0.34 yuan [1] - Trading volume for the gold futures was reported at 246,621 contracts, while open interest decreased by 5,958 contracts to a total of 154,552 contracts [1] Group 2 - Overnight, the spot gold price increased by 1.24%, reaching 5,083.79 USD per ounce [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stock index continued its narrow - range oscillation yesterday. In the short term, after a continuous adjustment, the index rebounded and entered an oscillation phase. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will maintain a relatively strong oscillation pattern. Although the domestic policy environment provides support for the index and overseas pressure factors have marginally eased, the pre - holiday market risk appetite has decreased, sector rotation has accelerated, and the daily trading volume of A - shares has fallen to the range of 2 - 2.3 trillion yuan, which means it is more difficult for the pre - holiday index to make a strong upward attack, and it is more likely to accumulate momentum for subsequent upward movement through oscillation [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: The closing price of DR001 was 1.37 with a 0.49bp increase, DR007 was 1.54 with a 1.87bp decrease, GC001 was 1.52 with a 10.00bp decrease, GC007 was 1.65 with a 3.00bp decrease, SHBOR 3M was 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year was 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury bond was 1.31 with no change, 5 - year treasury bond was 1.47 with a 0.75bp decrease, 10 - year treasury bond was 1.79 with a 0.75bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury bond was 4.16 with a 6.00bp decrease [5] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% and 4000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 750 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, the net daily injection was 4035 billion yuan. This week, 4055 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, and 5000 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase will mature on Friday [5][6] 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The closing price of IF当月 decreased by 0.3% to 4716, IH当月 remained unchanged at 3092, IC当月 increased by 0.4% to 8342, and IM当月 increased by 0.1% to 8260. The trading volume of IF decreased by 4.4% to 62400, IH increased by 4.6% to 30833, IC increased by 7.5% to 101790, and IM increased by 0.3% to 133571. The open interest of IF decreased by 0.2% to 281980, IH increased by 0.3% to 101315, IC decreased by 0.6% to 294295, and IM increased by 0.4% to 380005 [7] - **Stock Market**: The closing price of CSI 300 decreased by 0.22% to 4713.8, SSE 50 increased by 0.03% to 3088.5, CSI 500 increased by 0.23% to 8325.8, and CSI 1000 decreased by 0.13% to 8239.5. The trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen - Beijing stock markets was 20012 billion yuan, a decrease of 1237 billion yuan from the previous day. Glass fiber, energy metals, small metals, precious metals, and chemical fiber industries led the gains, while cultural media, education, tourism hotels, and aerospace industries led the losses [8] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF were - 2.05% for the current - month contract, - 0.21% for the next - month contract, 2.05% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.11% for the next - quarter contract; IH were - 4.13%, - 0.94%, 0.04%, and 1.89% respectively; IC were - 8.08%, - 1.25%, 3.10%, and 4.17% respectively; IM were - 10.18%, - 0.18%, 5.29%, and 6.48% respectively [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On February 11, 2026, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 524,000 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 744,400 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,114,900 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 42,900 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1,030,100 contracts; SSE 50 index options was 20,400 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 67,000 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 201,000 contracts [1] - The detailed breakdown of call, put, and total trading volumes for each option type on the same day is as follows: SSE 50 ETF options (call: 265,400, put: 302,800, total: 568,300); CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) (call: 255,700, put: 370,500, total: 626,200); CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) (call: 465,700, put: 480,900, total: 946,600); Shenzhen 100 ETF options (call: 33,900, put: 15,200, total: 49,100); ChiNext ETF options (call: 466,700, put: 563,500, total: 1,030,100); SSE 50 index options (call: 7,500, put: 12,900, total: 20,400); CSI 300 index options (call: 28,100, put: 21,500, total: 61,400); CSI 1000 index options (call: 108,300, put: 92,800, total: 201,000) [21] Option PCR - The turnover PCR and position PCR, along with their环比 changes, for different options are as follows: SSE 50 ETF options (turnover PCR: 0.72, 环比 change: +0.06; position PCR: 0.82, 环比 change: -0.01); CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) (turnover PCR: 1.05, 环比 change: +0.17; position PCR: 0.88, 环比 change: +0.00); CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) (turnover PCR: 0.69, 环比 change: -0.24; position PCR: 1.20, 环比 change: +0.01); Shenzhen 100 ETF options (turnover PCR: 1.29, 环比 change: +0.24; position PCR: 1.18, 环比 change: +0.00); ChiNext ETF options (turnover PCR: 0.86, 环比 change: +0.26; position PCR: 1.04, 环比 change: -0.04); SSE 50 index options (turnover PCR: 0.36, 环比 change: -0.14; position PCR: 0.65, 环比 change: +0.01); CSI 300 index options (turnover PCR: 0.42, 环比 change: -0.07; position PCR: 0.65, 环比 change: -0.01); CSI 1000 index options (turnover PCR: 0.56, 环比 change: -0.04; position PCR: 0.93, 环比 change: +0.01) [2][34] Option VIX - The VIX and its环比 changes for different options are as follows: SSE 50 ETF options (VIX: 16.49%, 环比 change: +0.24%); CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) (VIX: 16.80%, 环比 change: +0.20%); CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) (VIX: 24.78%, 环比 change: +0.23%); Shenzhen 100 ETF options (VIX: 20.45%, 环比 change: +0.03%); ChiNext ETF options (VIX: 25.86%, 环比 change: -0.10%); SSE 50 index options (VIX: 17.14%, 环比 change: -0.18%); CSI 300 index options (VIX: 17.77%, 环比 change: -0.18%); CSI 1000 index options (VIX: 26.22%, 环比 change: +0.55%) [3][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of global inflation remains unchanged, and the core driver overseas is Trump's policies. His nomination of Kevin Warsh aims to cut interest rates, lower credit - card rates, and boost the real - estate market. Although there was a significant short - term decline in assets such as silver, gold, Bitcoin, and US stocks, the long - term inflation narrative persists [1][2]. - Domestic policies clearly aim to boost inflation, including the central bank's interest - rate cuts and the finance ministry's policy releases. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [2]. - In the short term, be vigilant against market fluctuations. Different commodity sectors have different investment outlooks, and it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh advocates a "rate - cut + balance - sheet reduction" policy. After the news, silver fell over 30%, and gold dropped 11%, hitting the biggest single - day decline since March 1980. Bitcoin, precious metals, and US stocks were all under pressure in the short term. Trump hopes to stimulate the economy to grow at a 15% rate, indicating a pursuit of significant rate cuts and higher inflation tolerance [1]. - The central economic work conference emphasized consumption - boosting and anti - "involution" measures. The central bank cut interest rates on January 15, and the finance ministry released five important policy documents on January 20. The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy and conduct regular treasury bond transactions. China's January CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI declined 1.4% year - on - year [2]. - The US manufacturing activity expanded unexpectedly in January, with the fastest growth rate since 2022. The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January, much higher than the expected 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. The US and India reached a trade agreement framework, and Trump confirmed that India would stop importing Russian oil. Japan's ruling coalition won the election, and the prime minister will discuss food tax cuts [2]. Commodity Analysis - In the non - ferrous sector, Indonesia cut the annual production quota of the world's largest nickel mine to 1.2 billion tons, a 71% drop from 2025, causing the LME nickel price to rise over 2.6%. Precious metals have allocation value after the adjustment. In the energy sector, OPEC + will keep oil production stable in March, and the US will "sell on behalf of" Venezuelan oil. Trump hopes to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel. In the chemical sector, PTA, PVC and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline. Agricultural products need attention on weather and short - term pig diseases, and the black sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [2]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [3]. News - US employment growth in January exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased. The actual new employment from March 2025 was about 900,000 less than initially reported. November and December non - farm employment numbers were revised down [4]. - After the base - period rotation of China's CPI and PPI, the average impact on the year - on - year index was about 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points respectively. China's January CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI declined 1.4% year - on - year [2][4]. - Indonesia will significantly reduce the production quota of PT Weda Bay Nickel to 1.2 billion tons this year, down from 4.2 billion tons in 2025. Trump is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East if the negotiation with Iran fails [2][4].