- The report highlights the performance of the index enhancement portfolios, where the CSI 500 enhancement portfolio outperformed the benchmark by 1.19% this week, while the CSI 300 enhancement portfolio underperformed the benchmark by 0.52% [2][46][52] - The CSI 500 enhancement portfolio has achieved a cumulative excess return of 53.08% relative to the CSI 500 index since 2020, with a maximum drawdown of -5.73% [46] - The CSI 300 enhancement portfolio has achieved a cumulative excess return of 37.09% relative to the CSI 300 index since 2020, with a maximum drawdown of -5.86% [52] - The report identifies momentum factor as the dominant style factor this week, delivering high excess returns, while beta factor showed significant negative excess returns. High-leverage stocks performed well, whereas residual volatility and non-linear size factors underperformed [2][57][56] - The report mentions the construction of the A-share sentiment index, which is based on market volatility and trading volume changes. The sentiment index includes bottom warning and top warning signals. Currently, the bottom signal indicates bearish sentiment, and the top signal also points to bearish sentiment [32][37][35] - The A-share prosperity index was constructed using the YoY growth of net profit attributable to the parent company of the Shanghai Composite Index as the Nowcasting target. As of October 17, 2025, the index stands at 21.71, up 16.28 compared to the end of 2023, indicating an upward cycle [29][30][31]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, overseas ETF funds showed an overall outflow trend, with significant net outflows after large - scale positive inflows in September. External investors are cautious, possibly due to renewed Sino - US frictions. Short - term attention should be paid to Sino - US negotiation progress and domestic policy support [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Wide - based ETFs - **Average Weekly Returns**: The data shows various average weekly returns for different wide - based ETFs, such as some with positive returns like 6.43% and 1.09%, and others with negative returns like - 0.52% and - 2.84% [4]. - **Fund Inflows/Outflows**: There are detailed records of fund inflows and outflows for the top ten wide - based ETFs. For example, the Huatai - PineBridge CSI 300 ETF had an inflow of 27.54 billion yuan in one record and an outflow of 22.41 billion yuan in another, while the ChinaAMC SSE STAR Market 50 ETF had an inflow of 27.23 billion yuan and an outflow of 26.82 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Industry - themed, Smart Beta, and Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs - **Industry - themed ETFs**: The average weekly return was 3.52%, and there were corresponding fund inflows/outflows, with the largest inflow reaching 109.18 billion yuan [6][8]. - **Smart Beta ETFs**: The average weekly returns ranged from - 2.30% to 2.23%, and the fund inflows/outflows varied from - 1.64 billion yuan to 0.00 billion yuan [9]. - **Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs**: The average weekly returns were between - 3.56% and 2.0%, and the fund inflows/outflows were from - 5.0 billion yuan to 25 billion yuan [9]. 3.3 Overseas ETFs - **Overall Fund Flow**: This week, overseas ETFs had a net outflow of 10.85 billion yuan. In terms of style indices, the CSI 300 and CSI A500 experienced significant outflows, while only the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 had slight inflows. At the industry level, the banking sector had concentrated outflows, and sectors like non - bank finance and food and beverage also had net outflows. Among individual stocks, Kweichow Moutai was the most heavily sold, followed by Contemporary Amperex Technology and Ping An Insurance [12]. - **Top 10 Industry Index Outflows**: The top 10 industry index outflows included sectors such as banking, non - bank finance, and food and beverage, with the banking sector having the largest outflow of 1.82 billion yuan [15]. - **Top 10 Individual Stock Outflows**: The top 10 individual stock outflows included Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex Technology, and Ping An Insurance, with Kweichow Moutai having a relatively large outflow [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, Sino-US frictions deepen, affecting the stock index trend, especially high - valuation technology stocks. The stock index is expected to adjust, but the decline may be weaker than that in April, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic. In the long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with continuous inflow of incremental funds, and still has upward momentum [3]. - The US is entering a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for RMB appreciation, foreign capital inflow, and bringing new incremental funds [9]. - Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, with a clear bottom line for the stock index. New technologies and new consumption are promoting the stabilization and recovery of economic expectations [9]. - After the risk - free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium - and long - term funds and residents into the market will enter a new cycle [9]. - Future index performance depends on trading volume. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 2 trillion yuan, the index can maintain relative strength [9]. - It is recommended to focus on semiconductor, AI computing power and other technology - growth sectors with certain profitability, and also pay attention to the rotation allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance, securities, and consumption [9]. Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices declined, with the ChiNext and STAR Market falling significantly. For example, the ChiNext Index dropped 5.71% and the STAR 50 Index dropped 6.16%. The performance of global indices also varied, with the Nasdaq rising 2.14% and the Hang Seng Technology Index falling 7.98% [12][17]. - Among the Shenwan primary industries, the trends were differentiated. A few sectors such as coal, banks, and food and beverages rose, while sectors such as media, electronics, and telecommunications fell significantly [17]. Liquidity - In September, government bonds supported social financing, the return of wealth management funds pushed up M2, while M1 remained sluggish. The "gap" between M1 and M2 continued to narrow. By the end of September, the M2 balance was 209.48 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, and the M1 balance was 82.82 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [15][18]. - The core support for the increase in social financing in September came from government bond issuance, while weak RMB loans were the main drag. In September, the new social financing increment was 3.76 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 372.2 billion yuan. The balance of outstanding social financing was 402.19 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.0% [18]. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets decreased, and high - priced stocks adjusted. The trading volume (MA5) of the two markets decreased to around 2 trillion yuan, and liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index and needs continuous monitoring [28]. - The number of new accounts opened showed fluctuations. From January to August 2025, the number of new accounts opened was 1.57 million, 2.86 million, 3.06 million, 1.02 million, 1.555 million, 1.6464 million, 1.9636 million, and 2.6503 million respectively [28]. Index Valuation - As of October 17, 2025, the absolute valuation of the index was at a low level. For example, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.51, with a percentile of 82.67, and the latest PB of the entire A - share market was 21.95, with a percentile of 83.75 [36]. - The stock - bond ratio and its percentile of major stock indices were also presented, which can be used to evaluate the investment value of stocks relative to bonds [42]. Index Industry Weights - As of June 30, 2025, in the SSE 50 Index, the weights of banks, non - bank finance, and food and beverages were relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively. The electronics industry became the fourth - largest weighted industry [45][46]. - In the CSI 300 Index, the weights were more dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banks, non - bank finance, and electronics [46]. - In the CSI 500 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - bank finance [46]. - In the CSI 1000 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computers [46]. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policies: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set an economic growth target of 3%, a CPI increase of about 2%, and proposed a moderately loose monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy. In May, the reserve requirement ratio was cut by 0.5 percentage points, the policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, and a 500 - billion - yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, the "14th Five - Year Plan" achievements in the financial industry were summarized, and further reforms in the capital market were proposed [51][52]. - US Fed policy: The US is about to enter a new interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - BP cut in September. As of October 19, the probability of another rate cut in October exceeded 30%, and there are still two expected rate cuts within the year [53]. - Sino - US relations: China's "long - arm jurisdiction" and strengthened rare - earth control exceeded US expectations, and Trump countered with additional tariffs. A video call was held between China and the US on October 18, which may affect market risk appetite in the short term [54].

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20251018 绿色债券周度数据跟踪 （20251013-20251017） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20251013-20251017）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行绿色债券 18 只，合计发行规模约 122.82 亿元，较上周减少 29.68 亿元。发行年限 多为 3 年；发行人性质为地方国有企业、央企子公司、大型民企、其他 企业；主体评级多为 AAA、AA+级；发行人地域为广东省、北京市、贵 州省、江苏省、河南省、山东省、上海市、浙江省；发行债券种类为中 期票据、私募公司债、企业 ABS、交易商协会 ABN、超短期融资券。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20251013-20251017）绿色债券周成交额合计 613 亿元，较上周增 加 195 亿元。分债券种类来看，成交量前三为非金公司信用债、金融机 构债和利率债，分别为 306 亿元、226 亿元和 63 亿元；分发行期限来 看，3Y 以下绿色债券成交量最高，占比约 79.45%，市场热度持续；分 发行主体行业来看，成交量前三的行业为金融 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Factor Performance Tracking Single Factor Performance - Factors with the best performance in the CSI 300 stock pool this week include the standard deviation of 5-day trading volume (2.12%), the proportion of downside volatility (1.78%), and the 5-day exponential moving average of trading volume (1.35%) [1][12] - Factors with the worst performance in the CSI 300 stock pool this week include the 5-day reversal (-3.60%), single-quarter total asset gross profit margin (-3.43%), and single-quarter ROA (-3.38%) [1][12] - Factors with the best performance in the CSI 500 stock pool this week include the inverse of the P/E ratio TTM (3.99%), the proportion of downside volatility (3.80%), and the P/E ratio factor (3.17%) [14] - Factors with the worst performance in the CSI 500 stock pool this week include the 5-day reversal (-1.95%), 5-day average turnover rate (-1.17%), and the 5-day exponential moving average of trading volume (-1.15%) [14] - Factors with the best performance in the liquidity 1500 stock pool this week include the correlation between intraday volatility and trading volume (2.27%), the proportion of downside volatility (1.80%), and the P/B ratio factor (1.51%) [16] - Factors with the worst performance in the liquidity 1500 stock pool this week include single-quarter EPS (-1.36%), standardized unexpected income (-1.29%), and the 5-day reversal (-1.25%) [16] Major Factor Performance - In the overall market stock pool this week, the momentum factor achieved a positive return of 0.43%, indicating a momentum effect in the market [18] - The Beta factor, market capitalization factor, and non-linear market capitalization factor achieved negative returns of -1.50%, -0.91%, and -0.54%, respectively, indicating a small-cap style in the market [18] Industry Factor Performance - This week, fundamental factors showed varied performance across industries. The net asset growth rate factor, net profit growth rate factor, net asset per share factor, and operating profit per share TTM factor consistently achieved positive returns in the non-bank financial industry [22] - Among valuation factors, the BP factor and EP factor consistently achieved positive returns in the home appliances, comprehensive, and non-bank financial industries [22] - The residual volatility factor and liquidity factor showed significant positive returns in the coal industry [22] - In terms of market capitalization style, the food and beverage, beauty care, and banking industries showed a significant large-cap style this week [22] Factor Backtesting Results CSI 300 Stock Pool - Standard deviation of 5-day trading volume: 2.12% (1 week), 3.52% (1 month), 8.21% (1 year), 19.07% (10 years) [13] - Proportion of downside volatility: 1.78% (1 week), 0.41% (1 month), -5.44% (1 year), 25.57% (10 years) [13] - 5-day exponential moving average of trading volume: 1.35% (1 week), 1.19% (1 month), 3.70% (1 year), 5.13% (10 years) [13] CSI 500 Stock Pool - Inverse of P/E ratio TTM: 3.99% (1 week), 4.80% (1 month), -5.74% (1 year), 48.40% (10 years) [15] - Proportion of downside volatility: 3.80% (1 week), 1.56% (1 month), -3.09% (1 year), 107.51% (10 years) [15] - P/E ratio factor: 3.17% (1 week), 2.58% (1 month), -4.94% (1 year), 26.11% (10 years) [15] Liquidity 1500 Stock Pool - Correlation between intraday volatility and trading volume: 2.27% (1 week), 3.18% (1 month), 2.59% (1 year), 152.82% (10 years) [17] - Proportion of downside volatility: 1.80% (1 week), 2.97% (1 month), 5.48% (1 year), 114.63% (10 years) [17] - P/B ratio factor: 1.51% (1 week), 3.69% (1 month), -5.28% (1 year), 74.59% (10 years) [17] Portfolio Tracking PB-ROE-50 Portfolio Performance - This week, the PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved positive excess returns in the CSI 500 stock pool: 0.15% [24] - In the CSI 800 stock pool, the PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved excess returns of -1.50% [24] - In the overall market stock pool, the PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved excess returns of -2.52% [24] Institutional Research Portfolio Tracking - This week, the public fund research stock selection strategy and private fund research tracking strategy achieved negative excess returns relative to the CSI 800: -0.94% and -4.83%, respectively [26] Block Trade Portfolio Tracking - This week, the block trade portfolio achieved positive excess returns relative to the CSI All Share Index: 1.56% [30] Private Placement Portfolio Tracking - This week, the private placement portfolio achieved positive excess returns relative to the CSI All Share Index: 1.86% [36]

Core Insights - The transfer of bank deposits to non-bank financial institutions can be described as a "tide rising and falling" phenomenon, where deposits move to wealth management and bond funds when deposit yields are lower than bond market returns [2] - In the first half of this year, there was a significant increase in non-bank deposits due to a wealth effect from rising capital markets, but the growth rate began to decline in August and September [2][3] - The latest data from the central bank indicates a decrease of 1.06 trillion yuan in non-bank deposits in September, with a year-on-year reduction of 1.97 trillion yuan [2] - In contrast, non-bank deposits increased by 1.18 trillion yuan in August, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.55 trillion yuan, but a month-on-month decrease of nearly 1 trillion yuan [2] - The trend of deposit migration peaked in July, with a notable increase in non-bank deposits, but this trend has started to slow down in August and September [3] Deposit Trends - In the first three quarters of this year, non-bank financial institution deposits increased by 4.81 trillion yuan, compared to an increase of 4.5 trillion yuan in the same period last year, indicating a slowdown in growth in the third quarter despite a strong first half [3] - Household deposits increased by 12.73 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, while non-financial enterprise deposits rose by 1.53 trillion yuan, a significant improvement from a decrease of 2.11 trillion yuan last year [3][4] - The increase in enterprise deposits is attributed to government bond issuance and local governments' efforts to clear overdue payments to businesses, which has improved corporate financial conditions [3][4] M1 and Investment Behavior - M1 has shown continuous improvement for five months, indicating an increase in demand deposits, which are primarily held for further investment rather than for earning interest [4] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" reflects a reallocation of assets by residents in response to changes in asset return rates, indicating a broader risk appetite [4] - The growth of non-bank financial institution deposits is also linked to the increased regularization of non-bank deposits and a rise in interbank certificates of deposit [4][5] Regulatory Impact - In December 2024, new regulations aimed at curbing fund circulation will affect non-bank interbank deposit rates, but the current data suggests that the impact on non-bank deposits has been limited [5] - The sudden decrease in non-bank deposits in September indicates a potential shift in investor risk preferences, as rational investors may begin to move back towards deposit markets or fixed-income markets as capital markets reach certain heights [5]

Core Insights - The "Top 100 Listed Companies in China for 2025" report by Wharton Economic Research Institute indicates a decline in the profit threshold for the top 500 companies, with total revenue also slightly decreasing, but total profits increased by 3.69% [2] - The profit threshold for the 500th company is set at 1.464 billion yuan, down 11.22% from last year's 1.649 billion yuan, while total revenue for the top 500 companies decreased by 1.95% [2] - The significant profit growth of leading companies is the primary driver behind the overall profit increase of the top 500, with profits for the top 10 and top 100 companies rising by 4.31% and 6.14% respectively [2][3] Industry Analysis - The report highlights a clear concentration of industries among the top companies, with banking, transportation, non-bank financial services, public utilities, and pharmaceutical industries each having over 35 companies represented [3] - The banking sector dominates with 42 banks achieving a total profit of 24,885.72 billion yuan, accounting for 37.64% of total profits, significantly surpassing other industries [3] - The non-bank financial sector, with 40 companies, generated a profit of 6,501.20 billion yuan, overtaking the oil and petrochemical sector, which, despite having only 9 companies, still ranked third with a profit of 5,281.21 billion yuan [3] Declining Sectors - The report notes a significant decline in the power equipment and real estate sectors, with the number of companies listed decreasing and profits dropping sharply [4] - The power equipment sector saw the highest number of companies drop off the list, with 18 companies falling out, leaving only 26, and total profits plummeting by 36.87% to 1,509.09 billion yuan [4] - The real estate sector had 8 companies fall off the list, with only 10 remaining, resulting in a staggering 58.86% decrease in total profits compared to the previous year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests maintaining an optimistic outlook on the stock market amid an economic cycle recovery, while advising caution in investment allocation due to valuation changes [1]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to focus on the non-bank sector, which is characterized by low valuations and rapid growth in investment performance, presenting a rebound opportunity [1]. - There is an emphasis on the investment opportunities in cyclical sectors, driven by expectations of rising commodity prices in the fourth quarter [1].

Investment Highlights - The core CPI increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [3][12][13] - In September, the total import and export volume reached a historical high of 4.04 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8% [3][11] - The total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan by the end of September, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [3][17] Market Overview - The domestic securities market showed poor performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.24% [3][27] - The banking sector saw the highest increase among the Shenwan first-level industries, with a growth of 4.89% [3][29] - Market sentiment shifted towards risk aversion, favoring high-dividend assets like banks and defensive assets such as gold [3][4] Investment Recommendations - **Technology**: Focus on companies in artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, robotics, low-altitude economy, and deep-sea technology due to favorable policies and liquidity [4][34] - **Non-bank Financials**: Brokers may benefit from a slow bull market, while insurance assets could see a rebound in capital returns [4][34] - **Precious Metals**: Gold demand as a safe-haven asset is expected to grow amid geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties [4][34] - **Energy Storage**: Driven by policy support, the development prospects for independent storage are broad [4][34] - **Machinery**: Post-overseas interest rate cuts, manufacturing activities and investments are expected to accelerate, particularly in engineering machinery and heavy trucks [4][34] - **Domestic Demand**: Focus on new consumption to boost effective domestic demand, with potential for consumer spending to be released [4][35]

Core Insights - The 2025 China Top 100 Listed Companies Ranking was released, highlighting the performance of major companies in various sectors [1] Group 1: Overall Performance - The total profit of the top 500 companies reached 66,119.84 billion yuan, an increase of 2,354.24 billion yuan year-on-year, accounting for 96.93% of the total profits of all listed companies [2] - Total revenue for the top 500 companies decreased by 1.95% to 493,947.70 billion yuan, representing 68.70% of all listed companies' revenue [2] - Total assets grew by 6.81% to 4,055,553.95 billion yuan, maintaining a stable share of 90.35% of all listed companies' total assets [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The financial sector showed outstanding profitability, with 82 financial companies generating a profit of 31,386.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.90%, representing 47.47% of the total profit of the top 500 [4] - The manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 13.60%, with 241 companies contributing 14,425.03 billion yuan, reversing previous declines [4] - The construction and energy sectors faced challenges, with profits declining by 5.71% to 14,105.92 billion yuan, and the number of companies in this sector decreasing [4] Group 3: Company Rankings - The top ten companies included Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Petroleum, with ICBC leading with a profit of 421.83 billion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous year [1] - The ranking of China National Offshore Oil Corporation improved by one position, with a profit increase of 9.83% [1] - The number of companies with profits exceeding 100 billion yuan decreased to 97, while those exceeding 500 billion yuan increased to 24 [1] Group 4: Regional Insights - Beijing accounted for 51.08% of the total profits of the top 500 companies, with 78 companies generating 33,773.91 billion yuan [7] - Eastern coastal provinces continued to dominate the rankings, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai following Beijing in the number of listed companies [7]