高盛月内第二次做出上调动作。 "中美关税大幅降低，或助力A股市场重拾上升趋势。"瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊认为。 他分析，考虑到低基数效应以及更多支持政策的推出，预计今年A股盈利将呈逐季回升态势。市场估值 方面，更为明确的财政政策支持、进一步的对外开放政策、大力推动民营经济发展等举措，或有助于降 低股权风险溢价。 第一财经获悉，在最新发布的研报中，高盛上调MSCI中国指数和沪深300的目标点位至84点和4600点， 对应潜在上涨空间为11%和17%。同时，该公司维持对中国股票的超配评级。 这是高盛月内第二次做出上调中国股票评级。该公司5月8称，维持对中国股市的增持评级，并上调 MSCI中国指数、沪深300指数的12个月目标点位，从前期的75点和4300点，分别上调至78点和4400点， 对应潜在上升空间为7%和15%。 当时，央行等三部门联合推出多项金融政策。高盛认为，一揽子宽松政策具有针对性，愈发以需求侧为 导向，将目标明确指向稳定房地产市场、支持中小企业发展、促进股东回报以及培育稳定、健康的股市 等。 此次再度上调重要指数目标点位，高盛称，至5月14日，中国股市已完全收复美国"自由日"以来的失 地，M ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Securities analyst Meng Lei suggests that the A-share market may regain an upward trend, recommending an increase in growth-style allocations due to potential reductions in US tariffs on Chinese products [1] Economic Indicators - The total weighted average tariff rate imposed by the US on Chinese products is currently approximately 43.5% [1] - A-share earnings are projected to grow by 3.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with the non-financial sector benefiting from an increase in GDP growth rate, recording a 4.2% year-on-year earnings growth [1] - A-share earnings are expected to show a quarter-on-quarter recovery trend throughout the year, supported by low base effects and additional supportive policies [1] Market Dynamics - The A-share market is currently trading at a significant discount compared to global emerging markets, which may lead to sustained net inflows of global capital [1] - In the short term, it is advised to tactically increase allocations to growth styles to enhance portfolio flexibility, with small-cap stocks likely to outperform large-cap stocks due to higher exposure to overseas revenues amid a rebound in market trading volume [1] Sector Focus - High beta sectors, particularly TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), sectors benefiting from domestic policy support, and sectors that previously underperformed due to tariff issues are expected to attract investor attention [1]

2025 年 05 月 13 日 证券研究报告 | 金融工程周报 关税下调之后，市场分歧仍存 市场环境因子跟踪周报（2025.05.09） 分析师：柏逸凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524100001 电话：021-20321081 邮箱：baiyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 向 — 市 场 环 境 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 （2025.04.30）》2025-05-07 2、《关税问题反复，大盘延续稳健—市场 中 观 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 （ 2025.04.27 ）》 2025-04-29 3、《市场进入降波阶段，风格稳定性上升 —量化数据看板跟踪周报（2025.04.20）》 2025-04-23 风 险 特 征 解 析 — 量 化 策 略 视 点 》 2024-12-17 投资要点 报告统计时间为 2025.05.05-2025.05.09。 分析师：程秉哲 静观其变，谋而后动。关税下调之后，可适度控制仓位，静观其变， ...

- The report covers the period from 2025.05.05 to 2025.05.09[10] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Stock Market Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Market Style Factors - **Construction Idea**: Track the performance and volatility of different market styles such as small-cap vs. large-cap and growth vs. value[11] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the performance of small-cap and large-cap stocks - Measure the performance of growth and value stocks - Calculate the volatility of these styles - **Evaluation**: The market style factors showed a strong performance for small-cap and growth styles, with low volatility[11][13] 2. **Factor Name**: Market Structure Factors - **Construction Idea**: Analyze the dispersion of excess returns among industry indices and the concentration of trading volume[11] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the dispersion of excess returns among industry indices - Measure the proportion of trading volume of the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries - **Evaluation**: The market structure factors indicated a decrease in the dispersion of excess returns and low concentration of trading volume[11][13] 3. **Factor Name**: Market Activity Factors - **Construction Idea**: Track the market's volatility and turnover rate[12] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the market's volatility - Calculate the turnover rate - **Evaluation**: The market activity factors showed a rapid decline in both volatility and turnover rate[12][13] Commodity Market Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Commodity Trend Strength - **Construction Idea**: Measure the trend strength of different commodity sectors[25] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the trend strength for energy, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and precious metals - **Evaluation**: The trend strength was strong for energy and black metals, while weak for non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and precious metals[25][28] 2. **Factor Name**: Basis Momentum - **Construction Idea**: Track the basis momentum of different commodity sectors[25] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the basis momentum for non-ferrous metals and agricultural products - **Evaluation**: The basis momentum remained high for non-ferrous metals and agricultural products[25][28] 3. **Factor Name**: Commodity Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measure the volatility of different commodity sectors[25] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the volatility for energy, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and precious metals - **Evaluation**: The volatility significantly decreased from high levels across all sectors[25][28] 4. **Factor Name**: Commodity Liquidity - **Construction Idea**: Track the liquidity of different commodity sectors[25] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the liquidity for energy, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and precious metals - **Evaluation**: The liquidity showed mixed performance across different sectors[25][28] Option Market Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Implied Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measure the implied volatility of options on different indices[33] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the implied volatility for options on the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 indices - **Evaluation**: The implied volatility for SSE 50 and CSI 1000 options significantly decreased, indicating a divergence in market views on small-cap stocks[33][34] Convertible Bond Market Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Convertible Bond Premium - **Construction Idea**: Measure the premium of convertible bonds[35] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the premium for convertible bonds priced around 100 yuan - **Evaluation**: The premium showed a slight adjustment, with the market valuation at a moderately high level[35][37] Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Market Style Factors**: - Small-cap and growth styles showed strong performance with low volatility[11][13] 2. **Market Structure Factors**: - Decrease in excess return dispersion and low trading volume concentration[11][13] 3. **Market Activity Factors**: - Rapid decline in market volatility and turnover rate[12][13] 4. **Commodity Trend Strength**: - Strong trend for energy and black metals, weak for others[25][28] 5. **Basis Momentum**: - High basis momentum for non-ferrous metals and agricultural products[25][28] 6. **Commodity Volatility**: - Significant decrease in volatility across all sectors[25][28] 7. **Commodity Liquidity**: - Mixed liquidity performance across sectors[25][28] 8. **Implied Volatility**: - Significant decrease in implied volatility for SSE 50 and CSI 1000 options[33][34] 9. **Convertible Bond Premium**: - Slight adjustment in premium, moderately high market valuation[35][37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the announcement of a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including 10 monetary policy measures from the central bank and 8 incremental policies from the financial regulatory authority [1] - The current year is seen as a critical transition period for asset allocation, with a potential shift towards a balance between stocks and bonds, as bond yield decline may be limited and reflect weak economic recovery expectations [1][2] - The stock market is expected to gradually strengthen amidst fluctuations, with domestic policy support anticipated to increase in response to tariff impacts and ongoing global geopolitical tensions enhancing the attractiveness of the Greater China region for foreign capital [1][2] Group 2 - In terms of investment direction, key areas to focus on include the influence of new public fund regulations on institutional investment behavior during market fluctuations [3] - The military industry remains a significant theme, with attention on overseas geopolitical conflicts and related opportunities, particularly in military trade and upstream sectors that can quickly convert orders into performance [3] - Consumer sectors should be monitored for potential policy developments, with a specific focus on service consumption areas for targeted investment [3]

Market Overview - The recent tariff reduction has led to a quick recovery in major indices, with market sentiment expected to rise in the short term due to improved risk appetite, particularly benefiting the export chain and technology sectors[3] - The market's focus is shifting from overseas changes to domestic economic fundamentals, with expectations of continued high growth in export data supported by other stabilizing policies[3] Liquidity and Investment Trends - Current market liquidity remains robust, with trading volumes around 1.2 trillion, indicating a relatively ample liquidity environment[4] - New regulations in the public fund industry are likely to guide institutional funds towards mainstream indices like CSI 300 and CSI 800, while attention on TMT sectors continues due to their growth potential[4] Trade Negotiations Impact - The recent US-China trade talks have resulted in significant concessions, with tariffs on Chinese goods expected to drop from a maximum of 145% to 30% by May 14, 2025, reducing export uncertainties[6] - The negotiations are driven by increasing political and economic pressures in the US, particularly ahead of the midterm elections in November 2025[6] Interest Rate Dynamics - Following the easing of tariff risks, the 10-year bond yield has fallen below 1.70%, with expectations of a short-term rise in rates due to improved risk sentiment from trade negotiations[7] - The monetary policy environment has shifted post the recent rate cuts, with expectations of a steepening yield curve as short-term rates may decline while long-term rates face upward pressure[8] Risk Factors - Potential risks include the possibility of fluctuating US tariff policies, pressure from Europe and other countries on China, and the execution efficiency of domestic policies[8]

基金分析报告 景气价值基金池 202505：科技制造为主 2025 年 05 月 12 日 ➢ 注重公司以及所处赛道的成长性并兼顾估值水平。以彼得·林奇为代表的景 气价值投资策略，更注重公司以及所处赛道的成长性并兼顾估值水平，因而也属 于价值投资范畴，这一投资理念对内在价值的审美更多在于增长潜力而非竞争优 势，景气价值公司的成长未必来源于竞争优势，也可为行业赛道的扩张。本报告 将优选市场当前的景气价值基金，以供对其有配置需求的投资者参考。 ➢ 景气价值型基金池：具备更高的弹性。2015 年 2 月 2 日至 2025 年 5 月 8 日，基金池年化收益率为 8.92%，相对于偏股基金指数超额收益为 2.41%，组合 年化波动为 26.95%。基金池在景气投资表现较好的区间具备比偏股基金指数更 高的收益弹性。 ➢ 超额收益主要源自行业配置，风格更偏成长。景气价值型基金池超额主要来 自于行业配置、动态和选股，其中行业配置的贡献更为明显。风格偏向高流动性、 高动量、高弹性、偏中盘，价值属性整体较弱，更偏成长。当前行业上以 TMT 为 主，更加注重行业的成长性，但 2021 年中到 2022 年底则明显增配了周期赛道 ...

1、市场点评 "政策预期＋风险缓和"短期共振（向好趋势不变） 中美谈判达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展，推动风险偏好回暖，市场保持活跃，短期市场震荡回升。 需关注中美12日发布会内容，把握结构性布局窗口机会，放眼中期机遇，杠铃策略占优。 关税博弈：短期超预期，双方同意建立磋商机制，关注发布会内容，中期达成全面协议还需时间。。 国内政策：金融组合拳"稳市场、稳预期"，更多体现"托而不举"思路，财政接力成关键。 基本面：关税影响尚未在经济数据中明显体现，Q2仍面临下行压力。 特朗普关税政策或有反复， 5 月是上市公司分红派息窗口期，红利风格仍处布局良机，中长线资金加速 入市，低利率与资产荒背景下，高股息、优质消费龙头深受机构资金青睐，是底仓配置的较优选； 4月财报担忧已释放，TMT等成长板块成交占比回落低位，自主可控逻辑强化，AI产业在资本支出周期 下持续迭代，科技成长板块仍是中期主线。* 2、国内财经要闻 【5月7日】"一行一会一局"（政策加码发力） 5月7日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行行长潘功胜、国家金融监督管理总局局长李 云泽、中国证券监督管理委员会主席吴清介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the potential for further monetary and fiscal policy support in China, which is expected to enhance the investment value of the domestic equity market [1][9]. Group 1: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The People's Bank of China plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and introduce a package of financial measures to support consumption [2]. - The central bank aims to maintain market stability through various financial instruments, including stock repurchase and re-lending [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight increase in April, indicating a potential shift in consumer sentiment [4]. - Institutions are optimistic about the AI industry chain and consumer sectors, suggesting that investors should seize mid-term opportunities [5][11]. - The A-share market is expected to continue a strong oscillating trend, with a focus on technology sectors such as AI applications and communication [8]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Three main investment lines are highlighted: TMT sector's sustained growth, low-cycle stocks with potential for recovery, and stable public utilities and transportation sectors [7]. - The equity market's value is anticipated to rise due to recent improvements in corporate profit growth and supportive monetary policies [9]. - The bond market is entering a new phase, with expectations of returns exceeding market predictions due to favorable policy conditions [10].

Group 1 - A-shares market rebounded after the "May Day" holiday, with a significant increase in leveraged funds, ending a six-week decline in financing balance [1][2] - As of May 8, the financing balance in the A-share market reached 1.797145 trillion yuan, an increase of over 20 billion yuan compared to April 30 [1] - The recent financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market have rekindled institutional interest in Chinese assets, indicating a shift from risk aversion to asset reallocation opportunities [1][4] Group 2 - Since February, leveraged funds have shown renewed enthusiasm, with financing balance peaking at 1.940256 trillion yuan on March 20, the highest level in nearly a decade [2] - The recent financial policies, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, are expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the financial market [4][5] - The influx of new funds and self-purchases by fund companies has been significant, with 103 public fund institutions collectively purchasing over 8 billion yuan in net subscriptions this year [3] Group 3 - The offshore RMB and Hong Kong dollar have appreciated significantly, indicating strong foreign capital interest in Chinese assets [3][4] - The recent policies have enhanced market confidence, with expectations of further supportive measures to boost corporate performance and market sentiment [6][7] - Institutional focus has shifted towards sectors like TMT and high-end manufacturing, with significant net inflows observed in these areas despite recent market volatility [7][8] Group 4 - Public fund institutions have increased their research activities, with 162 institutions conducting 9,796 surveys on A-share companies in April, a 129.47% increase from March [8] - The electronics and biopharmaceutical sectors have emerged as key areas of interest, with significant attention from both public and private funds [8]