Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened high but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.62% to 24,221.41 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.64% to 5,269.11 points, and the National Enterprises Index increased by 0.54% to 8,724.9 points [1][2]. Steel Sector - The steel sector saw significant gains in the afternoon, with Chongqing Steel's stock reaching a peak increase of 135.56% before closing with a 91.11% rise at HKD 1.72 per share. Other companies like Ansteel and China Oriental Group also saw increases of over 10% [5][7]. - A rumor regarding production limits in Tangshan from July 4 to July 15, with a potential reduction in daily output by 30%, has drawn market attention. Current production data indicates a utilization rate of 83%, which could drop to 70% under the new limits [7]. Gold Sector - Gold stocks performed well, with Shandong Gold rising over 5%. Other companies such as Zijin Mining and China National Gold also experienced gains [8][10]. - Macau's gaming revenue for June reached MOP 210.64 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, driven by events like concerts [11]. Solar Sector - The solar sector showed strong performance, with companies like Fuyao Glass increasing by over 11%. A collective decision by major solar glass manufacturers to reduce production by 30% is expected to address supply-demand imbalances [12]. Chip and Military Sectors - The chip sector faced declines, with Shanghai Fudan dropping over 4%, and other companies like Huahong Semiconductor and SMIC also experiencing losses [13][14]. - The military sector also saw declines, with China Shipbuilding Defense falling over 4% [15]. Investment Outlook - Analysts from CICC suggest that the macro environment for Hong Kong stocks is characterized by abundant liquidity and structural highlights, leading to index fluctuations. UBS forecasts continued net inflows from mainland investors, with significant buying activity noted earlier in the year [16].

【导读】 港股高开低走，钢铁板块午后拉升，黄金股、博彩股和光伏股走强，芯片股、军工 股下挫 见习记者 储是 7月2日为港股下半年第一个交易日。 今日，港股高开低走，窄幅震荡。截至收盘，恒生指数上涨0.62%，报收于24221.41点；恒 生科技指数下跌0.64%，报收于5269.11点；国企指数上涨0.54%，报收于8724.9点。 盘面上，大型科网股普遍走高，钢铁板块午后猛拉，黄金股、博彩股和光伏股走强，芯片 股、军工股下挫。 大型科技股多数走高 此外，弘业期货H股跌超13%，A股跌停两连板，累计下跌超19%。 黄金股、博彩股和光伏股走强 今日，山东黄金涨超5%，潼关黄金、紫金矿业、招金矿业、中国黄金国际等纷纷上涨。 涨跌不一 京东集团涨0.08%，小米集团涨0.33%，美团涨0.56%；阿里巴巴跌0.36%，腾讯控股跌 0.3%，网易跌1.33%，快手跌2.76%，哔哩哔哩跌2.21%。 钢铁板块午后拉升 重庆钢铁股份盘中突破130% 午后，港股钢铁板块持续拉升。重庆钢铁股份盘中涨幅一度扩大至135.56%。截至收盘，涨 幅回落至91.11%，报1.72港元/股。该公司A股也于午后快速拉升并封住涨停。此外 ...

Core Viewpoint - The letter emphasizes the importance of identifying and holding onto the best businesses in a city, focusing on certainty and long-term value rather than chasing trends [2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The first half of 2025 is characterized by significant volatility and structural opportunities, with new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals being highlighted as key investment areas [3]. - The development of AI is recognized as a major technological revolution, showing strong fundamentals and increasing revenue potential [3]. Investment Strategy - The strategy involves concentrating on a few high-quality businesses and undervalued assets, with free cash flow serving as the basis for returns [4]. - Historical data suggests that chasing popular assets often leads to negative returns in subsequent years [4]. Key Investment Directions 1. Social entertainment platforms evolving towards AI agents [5]. 2. Companies with strong pricing power in advanced chip design [6]. 3. Enterprises with scarce metal and copper resources amid a weakening dollar trend [7]. 4. Leading AI models and public cloud services in the AI era [8]. 5. Brands focused on sports and outdoor lifestyles, showing improved supply chain and brand management capabilities [8]. Market Sentiment - The Hong Kong market has become a leading venue for IPO financing, indicating a shift in international capital's perception of Chinese assets [9]. - The transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world is expected to provide additional rewards for investment portfolios [9].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing supply chain battle between China and the U.S. is intensifying, with the U.S. employing export controls as a central issue in trade negotiations, while China retaliates by controlling rare earth supplies [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. has implemented stringent measures in the chip sector, effectively isolating China, while China has responded by leveraging its control over rare earth resources [1][6]. - China has adopted a "dual-line" strategy in rare earth exports, tightening controls on critical materials while easing restrictions on ordinary rare earths to meet civilian demand [6][4]. Group 2: Export Control Measures - Since April 2023, China has introduced an export licensing system for seven critical minerals, leading to a complete halt in exports of certain rare earths like terbium and dysprosium, which were previously exported in significant quantities [3][4]. - The U.S. has felt the pressure from these export restrictions, with companies like Ford experiencing production halts due to a lack of rare earth magnets essential for manufacturing [4][6]. Group 3: International Reactions - The G7 countries are collaborating on a "critical minerals action plan" to counter China's rare earth strategy, with the U.S. pushing for resource development in regions like Greenland and Canada [6][7]. - Despite these efforts, China maintains a dominant position, controlling 80% to 90% of the global rare earth supply, making it challenging for the U.S. and its allies to reduce dependency [6][7]. Group 4: Future Implications - The control of rare earth resources is pivotal in the trade war, with potential significant impacts on U.S. high-tech industries if China escalates export restrictions [7]. - The effectiveness of any agreements between the two nations will depend on the U.S.'s genuine commitment to reducing trade friction, as past behaviors have led to skepticism from China [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of the semiconductor market as manufacturers clear inventory, leading to rising prices and delivery times for analog chips [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Analog chip prices and delivery times are increasing as manufacturers address inventory backlogs [2]. - Texas Instruments (TI) is raising the production process of various analog components by 30%, with some data converter component prices doubling [2]. - TI is increasing the output of 300mm wafer analog components at its Richardson, Texas facility and plans to invest $60 billion to build three new fabs [2]. Group 2: Future Market Outlook - The German distribution trade group FBDi anticipates market improvement in the second half of 2025 due to reduced inventory [3]. - Supply chain resilience has become a priority for companies post-COVID, emphasizing the need for robust risk management strategies [3]. - Generative AI is increasingly applied in supply chain management, enabling continuous analysis of large datasets to identify potential risks and generate insights [3]. Group 3: Distributor Insights - UK distributor Anglia's marketing director indicates that market conditions are improving, with suppliers concerned about potential order backlogs due to expected longer delivery times later in the year [4].

中美达成了一项关于稀土供应的"谅解协议"，这不仅仅是一次简单的贸易往来，更像是一场博弈中的战术撤退。中国向美国企业发放了有效期仅六个月的稀 土出口许可证，涵盖风力涡轮机、喷气式飞机等多种用途，而作为回应，美国撤销了五月实施的对华限制措施。这一举动看似是对抗中的短暂和平，实则是 中方策略性的一招。 短期性的许可证安排，既保证了供应链短期内的稳定，也给未来留下了足够的谈判空间和反制筹码。 在中美贸易战的背景下，特朗普计划率领包括马斯克（特斯拉）、黄仁勋（英伟达）在内的十名顶尖CEO访华的消息，无疑为这场紧张的关系带来了新的变 数。 这些行业巨头代表着新能源、人工智能、半导体等关键领域，他们对中国市场的依赖程度极高。此次访问不仅是商界对政治决策的一种无声抗议，更是对美 国对华"脱钩"政策失败的公开承认。面对国内债务危机、低迷的支持率以及经济压力，特朗普不得不寻求与中国的合作以缓解内部矛盾。 特朗普可能希望通过这次访问解决美债危机，挽救其不断下滑的支持率，并缓解中美之间的经贸压力。随着中国连续减持美债，美元霸权受到了前所未有的 挑战。同时，由于贸易战的影响，美国经济增长放缓，就业市场受损。 而且，截至目前为止，没有任 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth and innovation within Chengdu's internet industry, with 3,725 internet-related companies achieving a total revenue of approximately 742.9 billion yuan in 2024 [2] Group 1: Financing and Investment - Chengdu's financing market is thriving, exemplified by the listing of Chengdu Great Wall Development Technology Co., Ltd., which raised 1.017 billion yuan, setting a record since the North Exchange's inception in 2021 [3] - In 2024, the internet sector in Chengdu saw 167 investment events, a 72% increase year-on-year, with 149 companies receiving funding, marking a 59% rise [4] - Notable companies like Guanyan Technology and Tuomi Shuangdu have secured multiple rounds of investment, totaling nearly several hundred million yuan [6] Group 2: Innovation and Development - Chengdu's internet companies are recognized for their strong innovation capabilities, with over 190 national and provincial innovation platforms and approximately 39,000 effective patents, covering 52.7% of enterprises [8] - The animation industry in Chengdu has shown remarkable growth, with the film "Nezha 2" achieving a box office of 15.9 billion yuan, showcasing the vitality of the local animation sector [9] - The gaming industry in Chengdu is robust, with over 300 core R&D companies and a workforce of about 50,000, making it the fourth largest in the country [10] Group 3: Application and Technology - Chengdu is advancing smart city initiatives with applications like autonomous vehicles and drones, enhancing urban competitiveness [11] - The artificial intelligence sector in Chengdu is developing comprehensive advantages in computing power, core software, and chip design, with companies like Kaola Youran leading in AI platforms [12] - The e-commerce sector is thriving, with significant growth in digital consumption, cross-border, and live-streaming e-commerce [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the announcement of the 76th batch of qualified road transport vehicle models by the Ministry of Transport, highlighting the importance of establishing industry standards for automotive control chips to enhance safety, reliability, and performance in the automotive sector [5][8][10]. Group 1: Announcement of Qualified Vehicle Models - On June 23, the Ministry of Transport published the announcement regarding the 76th batch of qualified road transport vehicle models, which includes a total of 2203 models [3][5]. - The breakdown of the qualified models includes 108 passenger vehicles, 41 passenger cars, 1359 cargo vehicles, 299 tractors, and 396 trailers [5]. - Additionally, 3 models have been revoked from the list of qualified vehicles [5]. Group 2: Industry Standards for Automotive Control Chips - The National Automotive Standardization Technical Committee is seeking public opinions on two draft industry standards related to automotive control chips, which are crucial for ensuring performance and safety in vehicles [6][8]. - The proposed standards cover general technical requirements and testing methods for automotive control chips, addressing functionality, performance, electrical characteristics, reliability, and safety [7][9]. - The establishment of these standards is deemed essential to mitigate risks associated with varying chip performance across different manufacturers, which can affect driving experience and safety [8][10]. Group 3: Future Developments in Automotive Chip Standards - With the acceleration of electrification, intelligence, and connectivity in the automotive industry, there is an increasing demand for high-performance control chips in chassis systems [10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated the development of a national automotive chip standard system to guide and regulate the application of various automotive chips [10]. - The implementation of these standards is expected to enhance the overall quality of control chips, thereby supporting the development of the automotive industry in China [10].

Core Viewpoint - Intel is rapidly losing its dominance in the server CPU market to AMD and ARM-based solutions, with predictions indicating that by 2027, AMD and Intel's market shares may be nearly equal [1][2]. Group 1: Market Share Dynamics - As of June 2025, AMD holds approximately 33% of the server CPU market, while Intel's share has decreased to around 62%, a significant change from 2017 when Intel dominated the market [1]. - AMD's market share has surged from about 10% in 2020 to over 20% in 2021 and 2022, with projections suggesting it will reach 36% by the end of 2025, while Intel's share is expected to drop to around 55% [2]. - By 2027, AMD's market share could reach 40%, with Intel potentially falling below the symbolic 50% threshold, and ARM processors may grow to capture 10% to 12% of the market [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - AMD's success is attributed to its Zen architecture and a strong product roadmap, which enhances its competitive edge, while Intel's recent efforts, including the Xeon 6 series, have not positively impacted market data [3]. - The growth of ARM-based server processors, although currently below 10%, is also notable as they gradually gain market share [2].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the memory chip sector, with increasing prices, inventory reduction, and order recovery indicating a potential end to the "winter" previously forecasted by Morgan Stanley [3][25]. Group 1: Signals of Recovery - Signal 1: South Korea's general DRAM exports have surged, with a 27.8% increase in March, 38% in April, 36% in May, and 25.5% in the first 20 days of June, indicating a shift towards supply-demand tightness [4][6]. - Signal 2: Samsung's general DRAM performance is improving, with expected operating profit of 2 trillion KRW (approximately 1.5 billion USD) in Q2, doubling from the previous quarter due to rising DRAM prices [9]. - Signal 3: DDR4 prices have skyrocketed, with a 16Gb DDR4 chip price rising from 5.6 USD on May 23 to 11.5 USD by June 20, while DDR5 prices remain stable around 6 USD [11][13]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Signal 4: Micron reported strong financial results with quarterly revenue of 9.3 billion USD, a 15.5% quarter-over-quarter increase, and a 36.6% year-over-year increase, significantly exceeding market expectations [14]. - Signal 5: SK Hynix has gained a competitive edge in the DRAM market, achieving a 36% market share in Q1, driven by HBM demand, and expects Q2 operating profit to reach nearly 9 trillion KRW (approximately 6.6 billion USD) [17][19]. Group 3: Structural Changes in the Industry - The current recovery is attributed to structural changes, including the active phase-out of DDR4 by major manufacturers, which reduces supply pressure and shifts focus to DDR5 and HBM products [21]. - Capacity shifts towards HBM production are increasing unit profits, with SK Hynix's capital expenditure rising to 29 trillion KRW, reflecting a strategic pivot to higher-value products [22]. - Policy-driven inventory accumulation due to uncertain trade policies has further contributed to rising short-term prices [23]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle, with multiple indicators suggesting that the "chip winter" may be over, despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [26][27].