固定收益 | 固定收益定期 国际油价升至年内高位 证券研究报告 高频经济跟踪周报 20250621 需求：新房成交续升，汽车消费回暖 （1）地产方面，本周 20 城商品房成交面积环比续升，同比由正转负。二 线城市新房成交增幅较大，重点城市二手房成交面积环比大多下降。 （2）消费方面，乘用车零售日均销量和批发日均销量环比大幅上升，观影 消费低于季节性，出行表现有所分化，全国迁徙规模指数环周回暖，一线 城市地铁客运量环周回落。 生产：工业生产平稳向好，下游开工率回升 （1）中上游方面，螺纹钢开工率基本持平，PTA 开工率与石油沥青装置开 工率环周小幅下降，涤纶长丝开工率环周上升，指向基建开工或边际改善。 （2）下游方面，汽车全钢胎开工率由降转升，半钢胎开工率较上周小幅上 升，半钢胎绝对值仍高于历年同期水平，以旧换新补贴政策支持下短期内 对生产端或有一定支撑。 投资：螺纹钢表观消费偏弱，水泥价格有所回落 螺纹表观消费表现偏弱，螺纹钢价格环周下降，随着下游需求淡季到来， 螺纹钢需求或将呈现环比下滑的态势；水泥发运率下降，水泥库容比上升， 水泥价格有所回落。 贸易：港口吞吐量下降，出口集运价格续涨 （1）出口方面，港口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The event "Maoming Red Lychee Across Thousands of Miles" successfully showcased the innovative integration of transportation, live streaming, and cultural IP, significantly enhancing the brand value of Maoming lychee and opening new pathways for regional agricultural product branding [2][4][5]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event took place from June 10 to June 14, covering over 2000 kilometers from Baqiao Service Area to Xi'an Huaqing Palace [3][26]. - It featured a live streaming component that attracted over 100,000 online viewers, witnessing the journey of lychee from the orchard to consumers [30][39]. Group 2: Cultural and Marketing Strategy - The integration of the TV drama "Lychee of Chang'an" with the lychee marketing strategy created a unique opportunity for cultural and agricultural synergy, transforming the lychee into a cultural symbol [8][20]. - The collaboration with Tencent led to the creation of three themed gift boxes that incorporated elements from the drama, enhancing market engagement and expanding sales channels [13][20]. Group 3: Sales Performance - The innovative "direct supply + IP gift box" model effectively addressed consumer pain points, resulting in over 10,000 orders within a week [31][32]. - The event culminated in a cultural festival at Xi'an Huaqing Palace, attracting thousands and boosting both brand visibility and sales [40][41]. Group 4: Industry Development - The Maoming Agricultural and Cultural Tourism Group is focusing on extending the lychee industry from a seasonal product to a year-round offering by developing processed products such as lychee pastries and desserts [46][47]. - The group is also enhancing brand value through cultural initiatives, including collaborations with local artists and the creation of promotional content [48][49]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company aims to continue leveraging cultural IP to drive innovation in the lychee industry, exploring the integration of culture, technology, and agriculture to elevate Maoming lychee to a broader market stage [55][56].

Group 1 - The National Grain Industry Technology Innovation Alliance was established in Beijing on June 19, with key figures from the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Grain and Material Reserve Bureau in attendance [4][5][6][8] - The establishment of the alliance aims to enhance technological innovation in the grain industry, promoting sustainable agricultural practices and improving food security [5][6] Group 2 - High express delivery costs are impacting fruit farmers in Guangdong, with reports indicating that the shipping cost for 12 jin (approximately 6 kg) of lychee to Heilongjiang is 168 yuan, making the transportation more expensive than the fruit itself [11][12] - This situation has led to a "high yield but low income" dilemma for some lychee farmers, highlighting the challenges faced in the agricultural sector [12] Group 3 - Yangshan West Lake Vegetable and Yangshan Chicken have been recognized as national geographical indication products, marking a significant step in the branding of agricultural products in Yangshan [14][15][16] - This recognition is expected to inject new vitality into the development of five major agricultural industries in Yangshan, including Qingyuan (Yangshan) Chicken and Qingyuan Silk Seed Rice [17][18] Group 4 - The first phase of the "Shenzhen Deep-Shan Friendly Farmers" product selection was held on June 19, featuring 23 products from five local enterprises, including fruits, cured meats, mushrooms, tea, and seafood [20][22][23] - The selection process evaluated products based on packaging, quality, market performance, and food safety, with the results to be announced soon [24][25] Group 5 - The "Taste of the South" event in Shenzhen showcased over a thousand specialty agricultural products from across the country, providing a platform for local farmers and businesses [28][30][31] - This event aims to promote regional agricultural products and enhance consumer awareness of local specialties [30][32] Group 6 - The "Artificial Intelligence +" competition for Guangdong youth concluded successfully, involving 178 teams from 64 universities, focusing on applying AI technology to rural revitalization [34][36][37] - This initiative is part of a broader effort to engage young people in agricultural innovation and development [36][37] Group 7 - The "Zhuang Mountain Agricultural Fresh" brand from Baise City, Guangxi, is set to participate in a brand consumption event in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, promoting local mango products [39][40][41] - This marks the second consecutive year that Baise mangoes are being promoted in the Greater Bay Area, reflecting ongoing collaboration between Guangdong and Guangxi [42][43] Group 8 - Guangdong is actively promoting its lychee products, with fresh lychees being transported to Xinjiang, showcasing the region's agricultural abundance [47][48][49] - This initiative aims to enhance the visibility and market reach of Guangdong's agricultural products beyond its local borders [48][49]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Shangri-La Matsutake Season series of events aims to enhance the local economy by promoting the unique matsutake mushroom industry in Diqing Prefecture, Yunnan Province, through various activities and marketing initiatives [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The series of events will officially commence on July 4, 2025, in Shangri-La City, featuring seven major themed activities to promote highland specialty industries and improve cultural tourism experiences [1]. - The third Shangri-La Matsutake Forum will also take place on July 4, focusing on enhancing the brand and recognition of Shangri-La matsutake mushrooms [2]. Group 2: Marketing and Promotion Activities - From July, Diqing Prefecture will launch promotional activities to expand market channels for highland specialty products and stimulate consumption [2]. - A cultural tourism event showcasing the rich history and natural flavors of matsutake will occur in mid-July, while an exhibition and sales event for matsutake cuisine will be held in mid-August [2]. Group 3: Logistics and Transportation - Yunnan Shunfeng Express Co., Ltd. will deploy two cargo planes at Diqing Shangri-La Airport and Kunming Changshui International Airport to establish a "cold chain + high-speed rail + air" transportation model for the matsutake season [3]. - Upgrades to packaging and the addition of cold storage facilities will ensure efficient and stable quality transportation of matsutake mushrooms [3].

Core Insights - The article highlights the emerging opportunities in Southeast Asia, driven by global supply chain changes and the growth of industries such as mining, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence, despite potential setbacks from U.S. tariff policies [1] Group 1: Economic Overview - The total revenue of the companies listed in the Southeast Asia 500 reached $1.82 trillion, reflecting a 1.7% increase from the previous year, which lags behind the reported 4.1% GDP growth of the seven economies covered [1] - Indonesia has the highest number of companies on the list (109), followed by Thailand with 100 companies, while Singapore leads in revenue generation with $637.1 billion, accounting for slightly over one-third of the region's total revenue [1] Group 2: Industry Leaders - The top five companies in the Southeast Asia 500 are all involved in commodity businesses, including Trafigura (metals), PTT (oil), Pertamina (oil), Wilmar International (agriculture), and Olam Group (agriculture) [2] - The energy sector dominates the Southeast Asia 500, contributing nearly one-third of the total regional revenue, with notable growth from Bangchak, a Thai energy company, which saw a 47% increase in revenue [2] Group 3: Profitability and Technology - The most profitable companies in the list are Singapore's three major banks: DBS, OCBC, and UOB, with DBS leading at $8.5 billion in profit [3] - Despite predictions of growth in the digital economy, technology companies have a small representation in the Southeast Asia 500, with only one tech company, Sea, in the top 20 [3] Group 4: Emerging Trends - NationGate Holdings, a Malaysian contract manufacturer, experienced a remarkable 723% increase in sales, surpassing $1 billion, largely due to its role as the sole assembler of AI servers for Nvidia in the region [4] - Southeast Asia's 500 companies are increasingly playing a significant role in the global supply chain, attracting substantial capital inflows and reshaping global trade dynamics [5]

研究所 中东局势影响 油脂领涨市场 ----国信期货油脂油料周报 2025年6月20日 研究所 目录 CONTENTS 1 蛋白粕市场分析 2 油脂市场分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 蛋白粕市场分析 一、蛋白粕市场分析 研究所 本周行情回顾：本周CBOT大豆高位震荡，期价较上一周明显抬升。周初美国生物柴油政策利好以及国际原油高涨给美豆带来提振，美豆震荡走高。随后美豆优良率环比下降，临池小麦高涨 ，均给美豆带来提振。不过美豆油高位获利平仓以及国际原油高位震荡反复，让美豆涨势减弱。市场在高位震荡加剧。主力合约在前高1080附近略显阻力。受此影响，国内连粕市场跟随美豆 小幅走高，巴西升贴水先抑后扬，进口成本支撑连粕重心不断抬高，不过由于油脂走强，买油卖粕套利抑制了连粕的反弹空间。相对而言，本周豆粕现货库存继续增加，但累库幅度不高，下 游远期采购增加，油厂挺价明显，豆粕现货略有上扬。当前市场影响因素复杂，宏观因素超过商品自身供求本身。在美豆震荡偏强提振下，连粕偏强市场凸显。 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 3400 25/01/02 25/01/16 2400 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Shenshan Younong" brand product selection event aims to enhance the competitiveness and market presence of agricultural products from the Shenshan Special Cooperation Zone, with 23 products from 5 local enterprises competing for entry qualifications [2][6][14]. Group 1: Event Overview - The first expert review meeting for the "Shenshan Younong" product selection was held on June 19, 2023, featuring 23 products from 5 local enterprises [2][5]. - The selected products include fruits, cured meats, mushrooms, tea, beverages, cooking oil, and dried seafood, showcasing local characteristics [3][10]. Group 2: Evaluation Process - Products were evaluated based on packaging, quality characteristics, market performance, and food safety, with scores compiled by the expert group [4][11]. - The final list of selected products will be announced through official channels soon [5]. Group 3: Brand Development - "Shenshan Younong" is a regional public brand for agricultural products in the Shenshan Special Cooperation Zone, aimed at enriching the product catalog and enhancing market competitiveness [6][19]. - In 2024, two product selection events are planned, targeting the selection of 38 products, which will be sold through online and offline channels, generating over 3 million yuan in sales [7][9]. Group 4: Future Plans - The expert group believes the selected products represent the agricultural characteristics of the Shenshan Special Cooperation Zone and have good market prospects [14]. - Future efforts will focus on strengthening product quality certification, standardizing management of selected products, and promoting long-term brand cultivation and marketing [15][16]. - In 2025, the Shenshan Special Cooperation Zone will enhance the promotion of the "Shenshan Younong" brand through various activities, including product procurement guidelines and brand exhibitions [20][21].

巴西对华新鲜或冷冻大蒜作出第五次反倾销日落复审初裁 智通财经6月20日电，据中国贸易救济信息网消息，巴西对原产于中国的新鲜或冷冻大蒜作出第五次反 倾销日落复审初裁，裁定若取消现行反倾销措施，涉案产品的倾销及该倾销对巴西国内产业造成的损害 可能继续，建议继续进行调查，调查期间现行的反倾销措施继续有效，并将本案作出终裁时限延长至自 立案起12个月内。 ...

农产品期权 2025-06-20 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏多上行，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖延续偏弱， 棉花反弹后高位盘整形态，谷物类玉米和淀粉逐渐回暖上升后窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 农产品期权研究 表2：期权因子—量仓PCR | 期权品种 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | 成交量 | 量PCR | 持仓量 | 仓PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/20 年美国大豆生产成本预测总计为 美国农业部（USDA）公布，2025年美国大豆生产成本预测总计为639.15美元 英亩，2026年美国大豆生产成本预测 总计为650.34美元 英亩。 月棕榈油订单，因为价格飙升 四位贸易商表示，受马来西亚基准棕榈油价格突然飙升影响，印度炼厂取消了原定于7-9月交付的6.5万吨毛棕榈油 （CPO）订单。 过去三天，马来西亚BMD毛棕榈油期货价格上涨逾6%，印度的炼油厂纷纷取消订单，通过锁定利润来对冲价格下跌 的风险。 一位在西海岸经营炼油厂并取消了 月交付的货物的印度买家表示："市场波动很大，取消购买的毛棕榈油比进 口、精炼并在当地市场销售精炼棕榈油的利润更高。" 不到一个月前，在棕榈油产量反弹导致价格跌至八个多月以来最低水平后，印度买家以每吨约1,000-1,030美元的 价格（包括成本、保险和运费）购买了毛棕榈油。 本周，棕榈油期货上涨，追随CBOT豆油期货的涨势，此前美国提议提高生物燃料的掺混量。 消息人士称，棕榈油价格的突然上涨促使印度炼油厂取消了每吨1,050-1,065美元之间的合同，每吨获利超过30 元。 一位 ...