期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 26 日 0 / 44 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：市场仍有反复 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：缺少共识，情绪转弱 4 | | 铅：区间偏弱震荡 21 | | --- | | 镍：减产刺激镍价反弹 库存压制高度 22 | | 不锈钢：供需两弱 跟随原料反弹 22 | | 工业硅：区间震荡，高抛低吸 23 | | 多晶硅：短期观望 23 | | 碳酸锂：资金情绪乐观 盘面延续强势 24 | | 锡：供应紧张，锡价支撑偏强 25 | | | | | 蛋白粕：国内库存维持高位 | 盘面震荡运行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：巴西榨季逐渐进入尾声 | 北半球陆续开榨 5 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 6 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货偏强，盘面继续上涨 7 | | | 生猪：出栏压力体现 | 现货继续回落 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般蛋价稳中有落 9 | | | 苹果：需求表现一般 | 果价稳定为主 10 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 | 棉价震 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a beautiful China is a crucial goal for the comprehensive modernization of the socialist nation, emphasizing the harmonious coexistence of humans and nature [1] Group 1: Regional Economic Layout and Land Space System - The natural resources department aims to optimize the land space development pattern by balancing population, resources, and environment, while promoting economic and ecological benefits [2] - The strategy includes enhancing policy mechanisms, implementing functional area strategies, and stabilizing the overall layout of urbanization, agricultural production areas, and key ecological function areas [2][3] Group 2: Land Space Planning and Protection - The focus is on dynamic assessment and optimization of land space planning, integrating major projects into a unified natural resource management framework [3] - Strict adherence to the protection of arable land, permanent basic farmland, ecological protection red lines, and urban development boundaries is emphasized [3] Group 3: Resource Allocation and Efficiency - The department will enhance the quality and efficiency of natural resource allocation, promoting comprehensive land supply and re-development of low-efficiency land [4] - Provincial governments will be granted greater autonomy in land use management, with a focus on integrated approval processes for various land uses [4] Group 4: Marine Economy and Ecological Protection - The "14th Five-Year" plan emphasizes strengthening marine development and protection, with a focus on high-quality marine economic growth and innovation-driven development [5][6] - The strategy includes promoting marine industries, enhancing marine technology, and ensuring sustainable use of marine resources while protecting marine ecosystems [5][6] Group 5: Resource Security and National Safety - The natural resources department will focus on ensuring food security and energy resource stability, implementing strict land protection measures [7] - Strategic mineral resource exploration and development will be prioritized to maintain self-sufficiency in energy resources [7] Group 6: Geographic Information and Disaster Management - The establishment of a new national spatial reference system aims to enhance geographic information data security and applications, supporting disaster monitoring and prevention [8] - Efforts will be made to improve geological disaster monitoring and response capabilities, ensuring public safety [8] Group 7: Ecological System Optimization - The department will promote a natural protection system centered on national parks, enhancing ecosystem diversity and stability [9][10] - Key ecological restoration projects will be prioritized, focusing on desertification control and historical mine site rehabilitation [10]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - US September retail sales month-on-month recorded 0.2%, below expectations [12] - US PPI month-on-month recorded 0.3%, in line with expectations [12] - ADP weekly employment report indicated an average weekly reduction of 13,500 jobs in the private sector for the four weeks ending November 8, 2025 [12] Group 2: Market Performance - US stock indices showed mixed results with the Dow Jones initially rising by 1.4%, S&P 500 up by 0.9%, and Nasdaq increasing by 0.67% [4] - European major indices collectively rose, with Germany's DAX30 up by 0.97%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.78%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 up by 0.82% [4] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 0.69%, with significant activity in Xiaomi concept stocks and short video concept stocks [5] Group 3: Company News - Huawei launched the Mate 80 series starting at 4,699 yuan and the foldable Mate X7 series starting at 12,999 yuan [12] - Alibaba reported Q2 revenue of 247.795 billion yuan for fiscal year 2026, up from 236.503 billion yuan in the same period last year [12] - NIO's CEO expressed confidence in Q4 profitability despite challenges in the industry [12]

大家都知道今年11月11日光棍节铁矿圈出了件大事，说西芒杜铁矿出货了。 半个月过去了，我寻思着问问船舶动态、装港指标啥的，更新一下进展。 问了几个业内人士，说还在装。我突然有点懵，不是出货了嘛，十几天了还没开出来？ 然后我翻回去看了下当时的官方新闻，仔细研读了一遍。发现是我大意了，当时的文章是这么写的: 满载首批9850吨铁矿石驶离马瑞巴亚港。 本博主误以为是铁矿石装完货已经有ETS了，或者叫ETD了，就是开船了，开出几内亚，开出非洲了，进入茫茫大海，奔着中国来了。 实际上不是这么回事。这个装载9850吨的船，是韦立船队的，叫自航接驳船。就跟那个坐飞机之前坐的那个摆渡车一样的，摆渡车不会拉你到新加坡、马来 西亚、印度尼西亚。摆渡车作用是送你到飞机旁。 这个摆渡船是负责把铁矿运到大船附近的。这个大船叫"Winning Youth"。当然，这个大船也是韦立他们家的。 暂时不知道中文船名叫啥，我就让豆包翻译了50个名字，我选了"青曜"暂用，大意是耀眼出众的年轻人。西芒杜是新矿，跟老牌铁矿，确实是年轻人。 这个青曜轮大宗散货船是个Newcastlemax，翻译过来是纽卡斯尔型散货船。这个类型的船大概能装20万吨左右的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [10] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in copper production and sales, contributing to a substantial increase in revenue and net profit [1][10] - The mining service segment experienced a decline in revenue in Q1 but showed recovery in Q2 and stability in Q3 [2][3] - The copper and phosphorus resource development segment continued to grow rapidly, with notable increases in both revenue and profit margins [8][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 99.33 billion yuan, up 42.50% year-on-year, and a net profit of 17.53 billion yuan, up 60.37% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 36.17 billion yuan, an increase of 34.07% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.42 billion yuan, up 33.68% year-on-year [1] Mining Services - The mining services segment reported revenue of 52.64 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.92%, but with a decline in gross profit and gross margin [2][3] - Quarterly revenue for mining services was 15.00 billion yuan in Q1, 18.23 billion yuan in Q2, and 19.42 billion yuan in Q3, with Q3 showing a year-on-year increase of 23.35% [2] Copper and Phosphorus Resource Development - The copper and phosphorus resource development segment saw revenue of 45.67 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 131.26%, with gross profit rising by 155.79% [8] - Copper production reached 64,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 100.65%, and copper sales were 68,200 tons, up 122.87% year-on-year [8] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 129.60 billion yuan, 143.53 billion yuan, and 155.87 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 23.92 billion yuan, 28.77 billion yuan, and 31.97 billion yuan [10]

格隆汇11月25日｜受今年美国进一步降息的预期重燃以及供应趋紧迹象的提振，铜价在午后交易中上 涨。伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜期货价格上涨约0.5%。美联储一些理事近期的鸽派言论，促使交易员 加大了对美联储12月降息的押注，而智利矿业当局上调今明两年铜价预测的决定，也提供了额外支持。 与此同时，加拿大皇家银行的分析师表示，"LME期货处于现货溢价状态，表明近期供应趋紧，而价格 预计将在较长期内放缓。" ...

Group 1 - The company, Mongol Mining (00975), announced a share buyback plan [1] - On November 25, 2025, the company will spend HKD 1.9227 million to repurchase 195,000 shares [1]

Group 1 - The company MONGOL MINING (00975) announced a share buyback plan [1] - The company will spend HKD 1.9227 million to repurchase 195,000 shares [1] - The buyback is scheduled for November 25, 2025 [1]

证券日报网讯西部矿业11月25日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至11月20日，公司股东总户数为 11.90万户。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant rebound today, with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 2% and the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.87% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.81 trillion, an increase of 84.4 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] AI Sector - The AI hardware and application sectors saw a resurgence, while the breeding and military industries weakened [1] - The semiconductor chip sector performed well, likely influenced by the overnight rebound in US stocks [3] - Companies like Amazon, Google, Meta, and Oracle have issued a total of $90 billion in bonds since September, indicating a high demand for financing to support their computing infrastructure [3] - The discussion around AI investment returns is expected to persist, leading to increased volatility in the sector, but the overall industry trend remains positive [3] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on the AI investment theme and consider products like communication ETFs (515880) and semiconductor equipment ETFs (159516) for exposure to the AI computing industry [3][6] - The gaming sector continues to show strength, with the gaming ETF (516010) rising by 4.14% [8] - The media sector is expected to recover due to ongoing AI industrialization and IP commercialization, with recommendations to consider gaming ETF (516010) and film ETF (516620) [9] Gold and Lithium Markets - The metal sector performed well, with various ETFs showing positive growth, particularly in gold and lithium [10] - The gold market is influenced by expectations of the December FOMC interest rate and the US economic fundamentals, with a long-term bullish outlook due to factors like the Fed's potential rate cuts [10] - The lithium market is experiencing a slight recovery after a previous surge, with supply constraints and high demand in the lithium battery sector [10]