Core Viewpoint - The North Exchange 50 Index has shown strong performance, significantly outperforming other major indices in 2023, with a year-to-date increase of 34.72% as of March 6, 2023, and a monthly increase of 30.62% [3][6][11]. Performance Summary - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a slight decline of nearly 2% over two days but remains ahead of other indices such as the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite Index, which saw monthly increases of 4.25% and 4.76%, respectively [2][6]. - Eighteen stocks listed on the North Exchange have doubled in price over the past two months, including notable performers like Wanda Bearing and Haomiao Technology, with increases of 317.95% and 271.87% respectively [3][7]. Fund Performance - The average return of theme funds focused on the North Exchange has reached 29% this year, with some products nearing a 40% increase [4][5]. - Specific funds, such as the Huaxia North Exchange Innovation Small and Medium Enterprises Fund, reported returns of 37.77% and 37.14% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the average return of 8.02% for similar funds [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The North Exchange is benefiting from supportive policies aimed at small and innovative enterprises, which are expected to attract more capital [4][7]. - The market is characterized by a high concentration of companies in sectors like TMT, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, which are experiencing growth due to technological advancements [7][11]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the North Exchange may continue to experience fluctuations but will benefit from policy support and improving performance metrics, providing opportunities for investment [4][12]. - The North Exchange is expected to maintain its appeal to investors as it serves as a primary platform for innovative small and medium enterprises, with enhanced liquidity anticipated as market conditions improve [4][12][13].

Economic Goals - The GDP growth target remains at 5%, with urban unemployment and new employment targets unchanged, while the CPI target is set to decrease to 2%[2] - The establishment of economic development goals reflects a pragmatic approach, considering the current economic situation and overall development requirements[2] Fiscal Policy - The central deficit rate is increased to 4%, and the broad deficit rate reaches 8.4%, marking a historical high[2] - The total scale of new government debt is projected to be 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy maintains a moderately loose stance, indicating that overall liquidity will likely remain ample throughout 2025[2] - Emphasis on the healthy development of the stock and real estate markets is expected to stabilize these sectors[2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - "Expanding domestic demand" is prioritized, with consumption mentioned 31 times in the report, indicating a significant policy shift towards demand-side stimulation[5] - A special bond of 300 billion yuan is allocated to support consumption, alongside initiatives to improve the consumption environment[5] Technological Development - New quality productivity remains crucial, with a focus on technological innovation and digital development as key drivers for high-quality growth[5] - The TMT sector is expected to become a long-term market focus due to its association with technological advancements[5] Investment Outlook - Investment is highlighted as a key area for stabilizing economic growth, with increased support for private capital and infrastructure projects anticipated[5] - The real estate and infrastructure sectors are expected to stabilize under the government's coordinated efforts[5]

Abstract 点击小程序查看报告原文 近期A股市场风格与2013年有一定类似之处 2025年1月，DeepSeek-R1发布，以其超高性价比和开源特性引发全球各界广泛讨论。一方面，我国AI研发实现突破走到世界前沿，开源也给予了更多企 业尝试开发各自领域AI的可能；另一方面，随着海内外相关APP和云平台、汽车、机器人等的积极接入，AI的全社会渗透度提升，显示出强大的应用潜 力。受此影响，投资者情绪有所提振，春节以来（2.5-2.28）科技成长领域明显占优，相关程度较高的创业板指上涨5.2%，科创50上涨13.0%；行业方面， 计算机、电子、传媒涨幅居前，涨幅分别为16.3%、8.3%、6.1%。相比之下整体市场表现偏平缓，上证指数及沪深300指数在此期间上涨2%左右，尚未回 到年初点位。近期市场的结构性特征与2013年有一定类似之处，本篇报告中，我们复盘2013年的市场行情、产业趋势、宏观背景、估值和流动性等，并与 现在情况对比，希望能有一定的启发和借鉴之处。 2013年行情复盘 行情回顾：2013年市场整体震荡，在移动互联网产业浪潮影响下，科创风格表现突出，TMT行业涨幅居前。 2013年全年，万得全A指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of two significant events on the A-share market: the opening of the Two Sessions and the escalation of the US-China tariff conflict. It highlights the historical performance of various sectors during and after the Two Sessions, suggesting potential investment opportunities in specific industries. Market Overview - A-shares experienced a mixed performance with over 4,000 stocks rising, particularly in the semiconductor and military sectors [1][2] - The trading volume in the market decreased significantly, with total transactions falling below 1.5 trillion [2] - The military, semiconductor, and precious metals sectors led the gains in the market [2] Two Sessions Impact - The Two Sessions are scheduled from March 5 to March 11, with historical data indicating that markets typically experience volatility followed by upward trends, especially in small-cap growth stocks [3][4] - Small-cap indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 saw increases of over 1% today, confirming the trend of small-cap stocks outperforming [4] Tariff Conflict - The US announced a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods, citing fentanyl concerns, prompting China to respond with its own tariffs on certain US imports starting March 10 [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the tariff measures may shift market preferences towards value and dividend stocks, while the absence of further tariff announcements could benefit growth stocks in the short term [7] Investment Strategy - Historical analysis shows that sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and consumer goods have a high probability of performing well during the Two Sessions, with specific probabilities of 60% for TMT and 70% for beauty and personal care sectors [10] - Post-Two Sessions, the consumer sector, particularly home appliances, has a 70% probability of rising [10][12] - The article emphasizes a balanced investment approach focusing on technology, consumer, and dividend stocks, particularly in sectors showing signs of recovery and policy support [13][15]

Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in TMT, new energy, home appliances, automotive, and consumer sectors during the Two Sessions [2][24] - High-growth sectors identified include TMT, new energy, and pharmaceuticals, while policy-driven sectors include TMT under technology innovation and home appliances, automotive, and consumer electronics under domestic demand expansion [2][24] Market Trends - Historical analysis indicates that market performance tends to be weaker after the Two Sessions compared to before, with small-cap stocks showing higher winning probabilities in the short term [7][10] - The average performance of major indices post-Two Sessions shows declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index averaging a decline of -1.34% in the first five trading days [7][10] Policy Directions - The report anticipates a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a focus on stability in economic growth expectations across various provinces [16][19] - Key policy themes identified include new quality productivity, deepening digital economy, expanding domestic demand, and upgrading social welfare [21][22] Industry Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors related to new quality productivity, such as artificial intelligence, industrial internet, and data elements, as well as future industries like satellite internet and humanoid robots [2][24] - Specific industries to watch include TMT, new energy, and pharmaceuticals, driven by technological advancements and policy support [25][26] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is expected to see improved performance post-Two Sessions, with significant growth in real estate, construction, retail, food and beverage, and transportation sectors [10][14] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption include issuing digital RMB vouchers and enhancing urban-rural coordination to stimulate consumer spending [22][23]

Group 1 - The trading sentiment of the A-share technology sector is currently at a high level, primarily driven by valuation rather than earnings, in contrast to the US market which is driven by both valuation and earnings [3][6][29] - The trading congestion in the A-share TMT sector has reached 43%, surpassing the previous historical high of 40%, while the US market is at 38% and Hong Kong at 39% [3][8][13] - The trading congestion of the ChiNext index is also high, currently at 37%, close to its historical peak of 41% [3][13][15] Group 2 - A-share technology sector valuations are overall high, with the computer industry PE (TTM) at 83 times, the electronics industry at 58 times, and the communication industry at 44 times, all above their historical percentiles [3][16][20] - The A-share Sci-Tech 50 index has a PE (TTM) of 87 times, which is at the 98th percentile of the past decade, while the ChiNext index is at 35 times, at the 22nd percentile [3][22][24] - A-share technology leaders have a PE average of 39 times, which is comparable to the US market, while the Hong Kong market is lower at an average of 29 times [3][26][27] Group 3 - The A-share technology market is primarily reliant on valuation fluctuations, with recent trends showing that the market's expectations for the technology sector's success rates are converging [3][29] - The performance of US technology stocks has been driven by earnings growth, with a significant portion of the gains attributed to profitability rather than valuation increases [3][29] - The report highlights a divergence in pricing logic between the US and A-share markets, with the latter being more sensitive to valuation changes [3][29]

Group 1 - The report highlights the emergence of DeepSeek, which has led to a revaluation of Chinese technology assets, drawing parallels between the current AI technology cycle and the mobile internet cycle from 2009 to 2015 [1] - Both cycles were initiated by overseas technological innovations (iPhone and ChatGPT), followed by domestic products taking the lead, resulting in industry waves and significant breakthroughs in cultural media [2][3] - The macroeconomic backdrop for both cycles includes economic transformation and liquidity easing, which supports the valuation uplift of technology-related industries and the expansion of excess returns [2][3] Group 2 - Compared to the previous mobile internet cycle, the overall fundamentals of technology stocks in the current cycle are weaker, facing a more complex external environment, leading to greater differentiation [2][3] - Since the release of ChatGPT in 2023, the TMT sector has seen significant gains, with the overall increase still having considerable room for growth, as valuation repairs are largely complete [3][9] Group 3 - The report indicates that the current TMT sector has potential for further growth, with a projected increase of over 70% if it mirrors the performance of the 2009-2015 technology cycle [49] - The report also notes that the sub-sectors within TMT show optimistic growth potential, with expected increases ranging from 80% to 140% for various segments [50]