1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of stainless - steel futures is expected to adjust weakly, breaking below the MA60, and the support at the 1.35 position should be watched below [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,855 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread is 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 476 lots, an increase of 5 lots; the main contract position is 123,112 lots, an increase of 5,588 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 40,898 tons, a decrease of 12,643 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of stainless - steel is 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 996,100 tons, an increase of 100,700 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 134,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,100 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,105 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2] - The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless - steel is 1.8581 million tons, an increase of 110,900 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 645,600 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons [2] - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters [2] - The monthly output of excavators is 37,300 units, an increase of 3,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, an increase of 9,500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump said that his visit to China might be postponed by five to six weeks, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that the two sides would continue to communicate on this matter [2] - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, raised inflation expectations, and still expected one interest rate cut this year. Powell said he would not cut interest rates until inflation improved [2] - Iran launched a large - scale missile attack on US - related energy facilities, and the US military plans to mass - produce Iranian suicide drones [2] 3.7 Raw Material and Supply - Demand Analysis - On the raw material side, the Philippines is entering the rainy season, nickel ore grade is decreasing, and domestic nickel - iron plants' raw material inventory is tightening. Indonesia will significantly cut the RKAB quota next year, and nickel - iron production will face pressure to reduce output [2] - On the supply side, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, but the increase in nickel - iron prices has raised the cost support. During the Spring Festival holiday, there are more steel mill overhauls, and the output decline is obvious, which eases the supply pressure [2] - On the demand side, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and stainless - steel exports will face pressure this year due to export policy adjustments. The current overall inventory level is basically the same as that of last year, and the inventory pressure is controllable. With the resumption of work of downstream enterprises, the inventory is gradually entering the destocking cycle [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The freight index (European line) futures price fluctuated slightly on Thursday, with the main contract EC2604 down 1.45% and the far - month contracts down between - 2% and - 1%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index rose 11.03 points from last week, up 0.7% month - on - month. The geopolitical situation remains risky, oil price cost pressure is high, and the supply - demand pattern in the short term has shifted from off - season looseness to tight balance, strengthening the shipping companies' bargaining power. However, due to the slight improvement in the geopolitical situation, the unchanged fundamentals of the shipping industry, and the limited upside space in March and April, it is difficult for shipping companies' price increases to materialize. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track shipping company quotes, cargo volume data, the persistence of the US - Iran conflict, and the progress of Iran's regime change [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - EC main contract closing price decreased by 28.2 to 1915.000, and the second - main contract closing price increased by 5.8 to 2386.2. The spread between EC2604 and EC2606 decreased by 34.50 to - 471.20, and the spread between EC2604 and EC2608 decreased by 40.30 to - 451.00. The EC contract basis decreased by 9.70 to - 358.51. The main contract position decreased by 1272 to 19915 [2] 3.2 Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) increased by 11.03 to 1556.49, SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) decreased by 12.11 to 1109.11. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) increased by 221.16 to 1710.35, and container ship capacity remained unchanged at 1227.97 (in ten thousand TEUs). CCFI (composite index) (weekly) increased by 17.90 to 1072.16, CCFI (European line) (weekly) decreased by 18.53 to 1444.87. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) decreased by 40.00 to 2064.00, the Panamax freight index (daily) decreased by 38.00 to 1891.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships remained unchanged, and the average charter price of Capesize ships decreased by 2418.00 to 26582.00 [2] 3.3 Industry News - The risk of attacks on Middle - East energy facilities has suddenly escalated. Iran's South Pars gas field and some petrochemical facilities in Asaluyeh were attacked by the US and Israel. Iran announced it would strike US - related oil facilities and listed the energy facilities of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar as legitimate targets. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran launched large - scale missile attacks on US - related oil and energy facilities in the region, and Iraq said the natural gas supply from Iran was completely cut off. US President Trump said he did not want further attacks on Iranian energy facilities but might reconsider targeting more Iranian energy facilities depending on Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - A ballistic missile launched by Iran hit Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, an important liquefied natural gas hub, causing a fire and "severe damage". Iran also successfully attacked the US - exclusive area of the Riyadh Oil and Gas Joint Refinery in the suburbs of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The attacks on the refinery destroyed the fighter fuel reserve, paralyzing or severely hindering the US military fighter fuel supply process [2] - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, staying unchanged for the second consecutive time, in line with market expectations. The committee members voted 11 - 1 to pass the rate decision, with Fed Governor Milan opposing and advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The statement pointed out that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, inflation is still relatively high, and there is high uncertainty in the economic outlook, especially regarding the impact of the Middle - East situation on the US economy [2] 3.4 Key Points of Attention - On March 20th, pay attention to China's one - year loan market quotation rate at 09:00, Germany's February PPI monthly rate at 15:00, the eurozone's seasonally - adjusted trade balance (in billion euros) for January at 18:00, and the UK's March CBI industrial order difference at 19:00 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: The international oil price remains high due to the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, which boosts the international corn market price and benefits the domestic market. In the domestic market, the remaining grain in the Northeast production area is less than 30%. As the corn price rises to a high level, farmers' willingness to sell increases, and the market supply of grain increases. However, the feed enterprises' acceptance of high - priced grain is insufficient, and they mainly purchase for rigid replenishment. The deep - processing enterprises' operating rate rebounds, and the rigid demand supports the purchase price. The rumor of the release of overdue rice may suppress the corn price. The wheat - corn price difference has widened, and the feed substitution demand may increase, weakening the later corn demand. The corn futures price fluctuates at a high level, and short - term participation is recommended [2][3]. - **Starch**: As the production of corn starch enterprises gradually recovers, the operating rate of the corn starch industry increases, and the supply - side pressure increases. However, the increase in the operating rate is slow, the downstream demand improves, the downstream提货 volume increases, and the industry inventory decreases slightly. The starch market's upward momentum weakens recently, and it may maintain a volatile trend in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Corn**: The closing price of the active contract is 2384 yuan/ton, the monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 18 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 1355055 hands (a decrease of 3537 hands), the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 222047 hands (a decrease of 7947 hands), and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 78333 hands [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the active contract is 2719 yuan/ton (a decrease of 2 yuan/ton), the monthly spread (5 - 7) is 2 yuan/ton (an increase of 1 yuan/ton), the trading volume of the active contract is 251737 hands (an increase of 3689 hands), the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 21809 hands (a decrease of 692 hands), and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 4885 hands (a decrease of 1370 hands). The CS - C spread of the main contract is 329 yuan/ton [2]. - **CBOT Corn**: The closing price is 463.5 cents/bushel, the total position is 1723308 contracts (an increase of 105847 contracts), and the non - commercial net long position is 257781 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Corn**: The average price is 2455.29 yuan/ton (a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton), the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2400 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton), the CIF price of imported corn is 2136.26 yuan/ton (a decrease of 1.9 yuan/ton), and the international freight of imported corn is 65 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2850 yuan/ton, 3040 yuan/ton, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively (all unchanged). The basis of the main corn starch contract is 131 yuan/ton (an increase of 2 yuan/ton), and the basis of the main corn contract is 71.29 yuan/ton (a decrease of 2.2 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Substitute Products**: The average price of wheat is 2600.06 yuan/ton (an increase of 1.28 yuan/ton), the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch is 737 yuan/ton (an increase of 80 yuan/ton), and the price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 18 yuan/ton (an increase of 1 yuan/ton) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Sowing Area and Yield Forecast**: The predicted sowing area of corn in the US is 432.34 million hectares, and the predicted yield is 36.93 million tons (an increase of 0.49 million tons); in Brazil, the sowing area is 131 million hectares, and the yield is 22.6 million tons (unchanged); in Argentina, the sowing area is 53 million hectares, and the yield is 7.5 million tons (unchanged); in China, the sowing area is 301.24 million hectares, and the yield is 44.96 million tons (an increase of 0.66 million tons); in Ukraine, the yield is 29 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The corn inventory in southern ports is 69.6 million tons (a decrease of 19.6 million tons), in northern ports is 219 million tons (an increase of 19 million tons), the deep - processing corn inventory is 337.7 million tons (a decrease of 6 million tons), and the starch enterprise weekly inventory is 120.3 million tons (a decrease of 0.6 million tons) [2]. - **Production and Trade**: The monthly import volume of corn is 80 million tons, the monthly export volume of corn starch is 3008.6 thousand tons, and the monthly feed production is 30.7 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Feed and Processing**: The sample feed corn inventory days are 30.06 days (a decrease of 0.19 days), the deep - processing corn consumption is 126.86 million tons (an increase of 4.91 million tons), the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 55.61% (an increase of 1.53%), and the starch enterprise operating rate is 58.8% (an increase of 3.07%) [2]. - **Processing Profit**: The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is 4 yuan/ton (a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton), in Hebei is 141 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jilin is 40 yuan/ton (an increase of 35 yuan/ton) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.71% (an increase of 0.05%), the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.29% (an increase of 0.01%), the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 12.82% (a decrease of 1.46%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.82% (a decrease of 1.46%) [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier said that the 2025/26 Brazilian corn production is expected to be 133 million tons, the same as the previous expectation, and the future adjustment tendency is neutral to downward [2]. - A survey by S&P Global shows that the US corn planting area in 2026 will reach 95.2 million acres, higher than the 95 million acres predicted in January [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - L2605 rose 4.49% to close at 8,916 yuan/ton. After Iran attacked Saudi, UAE, and Qatari oil facilities related to the US, international oil prices fluctuated and rose. The resumption of Saudi oil exports to half of the normal level led to a slight correction in international oil prices. In terms of plastic supply and demand, PE production decreased by 2.81% to 664,000 tons this week, with a capacity utilization rate down 2.32% to 80.07%. Downstream开工率 increased by 5.2% week - on - week, with the agricultural film开工率 up 7.9% and the packaging film开工率 up 3.1%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 7.31% to 575,400 tons, while social inventory decreased by 6.58% to 619,300 tons. With more PE maintenance plans, supply pressure is expected to ease. The downstream is in the traditional "Golden March" peak season, and LLDPE supply and demand are acceptable. Due to the uncertainty in the Middle East situation, L2605 is expected to fluctuate with international oil prices in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价 of polyethylene: The current price is 8,916 yuan/ton, with a change of 485. The 1 - month contract price is 8,390 yuan/ton, up 462; the 5 - month contract price is 8,916 yuan/ton, up 485; the 9 - month contract price is 8,681 yuan/ton, up 506. - Trading volume is 978,112 lots, up 188,753; open interest is 356,744 lots, up 12,786. - 1 - 5 spread is - 526, down 23; 5 - 9 spread is 235, down 21; 9 - 1 spread is 291, up 44. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 491,208 lots, up 12,287; the short position is 494,670 lots, up 15,102; the net long position is - 3,462 lots, down 2,815 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 8,529.13 yuan/ton, up 162.17; in East China is 8,777.44 yuan/ton, up 208.84. - The basis is - 386.87, down 322.83 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 124.46 US dollars/barrel, down 0.09; CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 1,039.25 US dollars/ton, up 7.25. - The mid - price of ethylene CFR Southeast Asia is 1,281 US dollars/ton, up 30; the mid - price of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia is 1,281 US dollars/ton, up 30 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical开工率 is 82.39%, down 4.52 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of polyethylene (PE) packaging film is 43.37% (weekly), up 3.07; the开工率 of PE pipes is 18% (weekly), up 7.83; the开工率 of PE agricultural film is 26.81% (weekly), up 7.95 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 38.46%, up 0.61; the 40 - day historical volatility is 30.84%, up 0.18. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is - 4.6; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 45.51, down 4.63 [2] 3.7 Industry News - From March 13th to 19th, China's polyethylene production was 664,000 tons, a decrease of 2.81% from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.07%, a decrease of 2.32 percentage points from the previous period. - From March 6th to 12th, the average开工率 of Chinese polyethylene downstream products increased by 5.2% from the previous period. - As of March 11th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 575,400 tons, a 7.31% increase from last week; as of March 13th, the social inventory of PE was 619,300 tons, a 6.58% decrease from the previous period. - From March 6th to 12th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 14.37% to 9,306 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 46 yuan/ton to - 1,329 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 1.14% to 6,602 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 1,211 yuan/ton to 1,446 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side has a relatively high inventory, and the elimination of old laying hens is slow, resulting in sufficient overall supply. However, with schools fully reopened and factories resuming work, the pre - Qingming Festival stocking has started in advance, significantly boosting the off - season demand. Feed costs have risen, leading farmers to hold back on selling and support prices, causing the spot price to rebound. The rise in spot prices further weakens the expectation of a decline in the laying hen inventory. From a futures perspective, the egg market remains volatile, and short - term trading is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3367 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 33; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 5217 hands, a decrease of 5790; the egg futures spread between May and September is - 407 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 1; the trading volume of the active egg futures contract is 170042 hands, a decrease of 2462; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The egg spot price is 3.22 yuan/jin, with no change; the basis (spot - futures) is - 146 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 33 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 109.28 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 2.75; the national culled laying hen index is 124.98 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 23.8; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.5 yuan/feather, with no change; the national new - hatched chick index is 71.99 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 21.63; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.84 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04; the egg - laying chicken farming profit is - 0.33 yuan/head, an increase of 0.02; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 10.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.52; the national culled chicken age is 500 days, with no change [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 16.11 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07; the average wholesale price of pork is 4.85 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.46 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.17; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.17 days, a decrease of 0.1; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.07 days, a decrease of 0.15; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 14898.72 tons, an increase of 1853.2 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly egg consumption in the sales areas is 6864 tons, a decrease of 440 [2] 3.6 Industry News - The average egg price in Shandong's main production area is 6.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average egg price in Hebei is 6.13 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average egg price in Guangdong is 7.27 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20 from yesterday; the average egg price in Beijing is 6.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market tumbled in the afternoon. The Shanghai Gold Main 2606 contract fell 4.64% to close at 1,062 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver Main 2606 contract fell 10.35% to close at 17,984 yuan/kilogram. Due to the crowded long - positions in precious metals and the significant increase in the volatility of overall risk assets, some investors faced margin pressure and were forced to liquidate gold positions for liquidity, leading to a panic selling [2]. - The Fed maintained the interest rate in the March meeting, but the new dot - plot significantly reduced the bets on interest rate cuts this year and raised the core PCE inflation forecast. The "higher for longer" interest rate path was further strengthened, causing funds betting on the Fed's easing path to leave the market [2]. - The US February PPI data far exceeded expectations, with the overall and core annual rates hitting new highs, indicating rising inflation pressure and accumulating risks for PPI, CPI, and the Fed's core PCE. The probability of an interest rate cut this year has dropped below 50%, and there are even expectations of an interest rate hike [2]. - In the short - term, market liquidity tightening may increase selling pressure, but due to the uncertain geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the anti - inflation demand in the context of crude oil supply games, and the repeated inflow of short - term safe - haven funds, there is still some support for the gold price. In the long - term, the bullish logic for gold and silver remains intact. It is recommended to wait for a full correction and then enter the market at a low price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1,113.52 yuan/gram, down 2.7 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 19,980 yuan/kilogram, down 328 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 85,832 lots, down 5,098 lots; the position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 68,152 lots, down 5,829 lots [2]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 130,531 lots, down 16,401 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 552,862 lots, up 2,753 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold was 106,845 kilograms, up 1,530 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver was 346,920 kilograms, down 6,843 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1,111.89 yuan/gram, down 4.08 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 19,947 yuan/kilogram, down 407 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 1.63 yuan/gram, down 1.40 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 33 yuan/gram, down 79 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,069.56 tons, down 1.15 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,389.75 tons, up 33.80 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 163,132 contracts, up 2,987 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC was 24,578 contracts, up 1,240 contracts [2]. - **Supply**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - **Dollar Index**: The dollar index was 99.56, down 0.24 [2]. - **10 - year US Treasury Real Yield**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.83, down 0.04 [2]. - **Volatility Index**: The VIX volatility index was 22.37, down 1.14; the CBOE gold volatility index was 27.98, down 2.58 [2]. - **Price Ratios**: The S&P 500/gold price ratio was 62.54, down 0.00; the gold - silver ratio was down 0.73 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, and the dot - plot showed only one interest rate cut in 2026 and 2027 respectively, with a more conservative interest rate cut path [2]. - The Fed raised inflation and economic growth expectations, and Fed Chairman Powell denied that the US economy was in a stagflation state [2]. - US President Trump said that the US was considering further actions against the Iranian regime and authorized a 60 - day temporary exemption for the "Jones Act" [2]. - The US February PPI rose 0.7% month - on - month, far exceeding expectations, and the year - on - year increase reached 3.4%, a one - year high [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in April was 0%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged was 100% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - On March 19, 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US [2] - On March 19, 22:00, the US January wholesale sales month - on - month rate [2] - On March 19, 22:00, the US January new home sales annualized total [2] - On March 19, 22:00, the US February Conference Board leading index month - on - month rate [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on March 18, possibly due to profit - taking. The commodity market is affected by the Iran war. The recent rapeseed meal futures have been oscillating at a high level with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended. The rapeseed oil futures have generally maintained a high - level oscillation recently, with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the cancellation of anti - discriminatory tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. However, the market has already reacted in advance, and the overall impact is limited. The supply pressure of soybeans is increasing with the progress of South American soybean harvesting, which restricts the price of US soybeans [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict drives up international oil prices, promoting the expected demand for vegetable oil in biodiesel. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly in March, and the inventory at the end of the month is expected to decline. The Indonesian government may impose additional taxes on palm oil, which is expected to tighten palm oil exports. Domestically, the spot market for oils and fats has a weak trading atmosphere, and the expected increase in the import of Canadian rapeseed in the later period adds supply pressure in the far - month [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9854 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal futures is 2443 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil is 146 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal is 5 yuan, down 11 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is - 16849 lots, up 1880 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 129361 lots, up 15965 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 805 sheets, down 100 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 286 sheets, down 300 sheets. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 726.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.7 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed futures is 5852 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10480 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10461.25 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 5361.22 yuan/ton, down 27.75 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.87, up 0.01. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 626 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 237 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8880 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1600 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 610 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3360 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 680 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is 36 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 17.5 million tons, down 2.5 million tons. The weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 8%, unchanged. The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2 million tons, up 0.5 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 27.65 million tons, up 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 5.75 million tons, down 2.3 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 30.2 million tons, up 1.9 million tons. The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 0.52 million tons, up 0.7 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 1.04 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons. The monthly total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry is 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan. The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 25.58%, down 1.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 25.76%, down 1.72%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 29.21%, up 1.09%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.08%, up 0.24%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 19%, down 0.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 19%, down 0.9%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.64%, up 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.85%, up 0.03% [2]. Industry News - On March 18 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, possibly due to profit - taking. The futures price fluctuated between gains and losses during the day because the commodity market was continuously affected by the Iran war. The most actively traded May rapeseed contract closed down 3.30 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 726.20 Canadian dollars per ton. The attacks on Middle - East energy infrastructure increased the risk of further disruption of energy supply in the region, driving up oil prices and boosting the price of the US soybean market. However, with the progress of South American soybean harvesting, the supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, and the competitive advantage of Brazilian soybeans is good, which frustrated the market's export expectations for US soybeans and continued to restrict the price of the US soybean market [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.330 | 0.07% T主力成交量 | 83153 | 15515↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 106.055 | 0.06% TF主力成交量 | 68977 | 16339↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.530 | 0.03% TS主力成交量 | 43788 | 4497↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 111.070 | 0.1% TL主力成交量 | 82220 | 11350↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2606-2609价差 | 0.28 | -0.01↓ T06-TL06价差 | -2.74 | -0.02↓ | | | T2606-2609价差 | 0.05 | -0.01↓ TF06-T06价差 | -2.27 | -0.00↓ | | | TF2606-2609价差 | 0.20 | +0.02↑ TS06-T06价差 | -5.80 | -0.03↓ | | | TS2606 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - As of March 18, 2026, the inventory in apple cold storage in major production areas decreased, and the de - stocking speed accelerated. The apple market maintains a differentiated pattern of stronger in the west and stable in the east. High - quality goods are scarce and prices are firm. It is expected that the apple futures price still has room to rise in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 10,611 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 490; the main contract position is 93,146 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2,130; the net buying volume of the top 20 positions in futures is 10,570 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 5,712 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.2 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commercial) is 4.3 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade secondary fruit farmer's goods) is 4 yuan/jin, and the week - on - week changes of these prices are all 0 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in the country is 5,128.51 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 168.34 million tons; the apple orchard area in the country is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.58 thousand hectares; the weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.37 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg; the weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.52 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 yuan/kg; the total inventory in national apple cold storage is 468.43 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 31.29 million tons; the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.38, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.36, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.03; the monthly export volume of apples is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 40,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year growth rate of the monthly export amount of apples is 30.7%; the monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1,775,355 million US dollars, with an increase of 657,409 million US dollars; the weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0.35 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 yuan/jin [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.64 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.57 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 6.51 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg; the average daily arrival volume of trucks in the morning at the Jiangmen wholesale market in Guangdong is 12.8 vehicles, with an increase of 3.2 vehicles; the average daily arrival volume of trucks in the morning at the Xiaqiao wholesale market in Guangdong is 18.4 vehicles, with an increase of 6 vehicles; the average daily arrival volume of trucks in the morning at the Chalong wholesale market in Guangdong is 24 vehicles, with an increase of 5.6 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 33.5%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.29%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 33.5%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.29% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The sugar price may experience short - term shock adjustment due to the unexpectedly high sugar import data in January and February, which brings pressure to the market, despite the possible upcoming first peak of sugar mill closures in the 25/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5417 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 74; the main contract position is 372,106 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 15,641 hands; the warehouse receipt quantity is 16,342 sheets, with no month - on - month change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 118,317 hands; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4103 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50; that of Thai sugar is 4031 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 66; that of Thai sugar is 5106 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5315 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5; in Guangxi Nanning, it is 5430 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10; in Liuzhou, Guangxi, it is 5450 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, with an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, with an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares. Brazil's total sugar export volume in the month is 222.97 million tons, with an increase of 21.22 million tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1305 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 78; that of Thai sugar is 1377 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 78. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar is 208 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 94; that of Thai sugar is 302 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 94 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of sugar in February 2026 is 240,000 tons, an increase of 200,000 tons year - on - year; the cumulative import volume from January to February is 520,000 tons, an increase of 440,000 tons or 563.1% year - on - year. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 155.06 million tons, with an increase of 66.58 million tons; in Yunnan, it is 53.2 million tons, with an increase of 25.06 million tons. The cumulative output of cane sugar in Guangxi is 402.9 million tons, with an increase of 208.71 million tons; in Yunnan, it is 98.41 million tons, with an increase of 59.18 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 359.04 million tons, with an increase of 228.74 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1342.1 million tons, with an increase of 296.4 million tons [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.53%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%; that of at - the - money put options is 9.62%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 10.51%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 10.33%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.22% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In February 2026, China's sugar import volume was 240,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 tons; from January to February, the cumulative import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons or 563.1%. The most actively traded May raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose 0.35 cents or 2.40% to settle at 14.45 cents per pound on Wednesday. Brazil exported 724,280 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of March, with a daily average export volume of 72,400 tons, a 25% decrease compared to the daily average export volume of 96,550 tons in March of the previous year. The total export volume in March of the previous year was 1.8344 million tons [2]