广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资格：Z0022532） 电话：020- 88818018 邮箱：chenshangyu@gf.com.cn 本报告中所有观点仅供 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（233）期 发布日期：2025-12-23 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/22 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,123.00 | 1,114.00 | 9.0 | 0.808 | | | 焦炭 | 1,740.00 | 1,743.50 | -3.50 | -0.201 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,265.00 | 15,205.00 | 60.0 | 0.395 | | | 20号胶 | 12,420.00 | 12,355.00 | 65.0 | 0.526 | | | 塑料 | 6,312.00 | 6,240.00 | 72.0 | 1.154 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,189 ...

作为中央企业中国华能集团旗下金融战略平台的核心组成部分，宝城期货由华能资本与长城证券共同出资设立。宝城期货三十余年来深耕期货行业，在服务 股东协同发展、赋能实体经济转型、助力乡村振兴战略、深耕专业研究领域等方面多点发力，期货公司功能性发挥不断加强。 宝城期货始终秉持"安全、领先、服务"的战略理念，将"三提两控"（即持续提升工作质量、提升工作效率、提高工作效益，同时严格控制风险与成本）作为 永恒的经营主题。公司内部形成了"简单、高效、规范、快乐"的工作文化和"马上就办、办就办好"的工作作风。公司鼓励员工保持持续的思考方式，聚焦 于"四个打破"，即打破路径依赖、打破"舒适圈"、打破平庸懒散、打破形式主义与官僚主义，以推动创新与追求卓越。公司多次荣获行业奖项，用实力彰显 了央企金融平台的专业素养与责任担当，书写了金融服务国家战略、助推经济社会发展的精彩答卷。 [深耕协同之道 赋能股东生态共荣] 以专业服务护航产业发展] 自成立以来，宝城期货始终坚守"服务实体经济"的初心使命，立足衍生品服务本源，针对不同行业、不同规模实体企业的需求痛点，打造了差异化、个性化 的风险管理服务体系，将专业金融服务渗透到产业链的各个环节， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yun Wealth Futures, emphasizes its commitment to serving the real economy and enhancing its service capabilities while fulfilling social responsibilities and promoting investor education [1][5]. Group 1: Commitment to the Real Economy - Serving the real economy is the core mission of the futures industry and a long-standing focus for Yun Wealth Futures, which provides risk management services in key sectors such as non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals [2]. - The company collaborates with the Xinjiang Nonferrous Metals Association to support green transformation in industries, conducting research to understand development pain points and needs for green transition [2]. - In agriculture, the company assists regional agricultural upgrades, helping local businesses participate in hedging and mitigate market price volatility risks [2]. Group 2: Social Responsibility Initiatives - The company actively engages in rural revitalization and economic improvement through various support measures, including partnerships with local governments and businesses [3]. - Initiatives include ecological support, industrial assistance, consumer support, employment aid, and knowledge training, benefiting local economies and improving livelihoods [3]. - The company has successfully implemented projects that enhance local infrastructure, promote unique agricultural products, and provide employment opportunities, significantly impacting community development [3]. Group 3: Investor Education - Investor education is a crucial foundation for the high-quality development of the futures market, and the company focuses on building a comprehensive and multi-layered investor education system [4]. - The company participates in various educational activities organized by regulatory bodies and industry associations, promoting financial knowledge and rational investment concepts [4]. - It also conducts its own diverse educational activities, including annual investor education meetings and collaborations with universities to train future professionals in the futures industry [4]. Group 4: Future Directions - Looking ahead, the company plans to continue its commitment to serving the real economy, innovate in industry services, and enhance investor education [5]. - The company aims to maintain its active role in social responsibility, particularly in rural revitalization and green development, contributing to the sustainable growth of the futures industry [5].

联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 2.13%报 4480.60 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 2.37%报 69.09 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 1.60%报 1003.08 元/克，沪银涨 2.30%报 16126 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 12 月 22 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 12.02 吨，当前持仓量为 1064.56 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 上日增加 533.01 吨，为 2023 年 1 月以来的最大单日增幅，当前持仓量为 16599.2 ...

Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1114.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.54%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1743.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.20%。昨日夜盘，Jm2605 收于 1123.0，环比日盘收 盘上涨 1.67%；J2605 合约收于 1740.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.20%。 【重要资讯】 1、央行发布一次性信用修复政策有关安排，针对特定时期内、单笔金额在 1 万元以下 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 区间震荡 | 的小额个人逾期信息，将实施一次性信用修复，"免申即享"，信用卡、房贷、消费贷 等均可适用。 2、焦炭第三轮提降落地：自 2025 年 12 月 22 日 0 时起，河北市场钢厂对焦炭采购价下 调，山东市场主流钢厂对焦炭采购价湿熄下调 50 元/吨，干熄下调 55 元/吨。 3、2025 年 12 月 22 日山西太原市华润联盛原相焦煤（A9.5 S0.45 V21 G85）竞拍，起 拍价 1465 元/吨，数量 0.2 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 23 日 0 / 50 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：保持震荡上行 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：风偏回升 LPR 持稳，债市情绪有所承压 5 | | 蛋白粕：盘面跌幅较大 市场阶段性稳定 6 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价上涨 国内糖价大跌后调整 6 | | 油脂板块：油脂技术性反弹 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面底部震荡 8 | | 生猪：市场出栏较大 现货阶段性稳定 9 | | 花生：花生现货回落，花生盘面偏弱震荡 10 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 蛋价有所回落 10 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 果价稳定为主 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 钢材：补库预期有待兑现，钢价维持区间震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：底部反弹，关注交易逻辑的变化 14 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：成本支撑叠加反内卷预期，短期跟随反弹 16 | | 金银：地缘紧张与降息预期共振，黄金突破前高引领贵金属走强 17 | | --- | | 铂钯： ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指： 市场全天震荡走强，沪指重返3900点上方，创业板指涨超2%。个股涨多跌少，沪深京三市超2900股飘 红，今日成交逾1.88万亿。截止收盘沪指涨0.69%，深成指涨1.47%，创业板指涨2.23%。近期，股指期 货市场围绕10月以来的中枢下沿持续震荡，大小盘指数分化有限，板块间轮动频繁，市场情绪相对温 和。12月政治局会议与中央经济工作会议相继召开，短期内政策对市场的影响有望增强。从政策表述来 看，重要会议提到"实现'十五五'良好开局"，预计明年5%的GDP增长目标不会改变。政策发力方向仍主 要集中在"稳内需"和"促进新质生产力快速发展"。会议提到，"必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结 合"，提振居民收入水平和消费能力是宏观通胀预期回升的重要条件。同时强调"保持必要财政赤字、债 务总规模和支出总量"，表明明年财政政策与货币政策组合发力的政策不会改变，规模可能较今年小幅 提升。海外方面，尽管美联储如期降息25bp，且重启扩表计划，但点阵图显示2026年降息预期存在分 化，美股科技股出现震荡。同时，日本央行也将于近期召开议息会议，关注加息对套息 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties are classified into different trends such as trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头 [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, futures varieties are classified into 偏空, 震荡, and 偏多 trends [6]. - The overall A - share market showed an upward trend with increased trading volume, but the 12 - month economic data may still be weak, and the overseas data has some uncertainties. The stock index continued to rebound, and attention should be paid to its sustainability [8][9]. - The short - and medium - term bonds may fluctuate moderately upward, but the odds are more important than the direction. Without interest rate cuts, the sentiment in the market may decline [10]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a bearish view on rallies in the medium and long term. The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate upward in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. The silicon alloys should be considered bearish on rallies in the medium term [11][13][15]. - For soda ash, the strategy is to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [16]. - The price of Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate downward after the macro - positive factors fade. The price of Shanghai lead is expected to maintain a low - inventory level, and the previous short positions are recommended to continue to be held. The price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely in the long - term, with a short - term weakening demand and possible short - term correction [18][19]. - For industrial silicon, there is a possibility of partial valuation repair; for polysilicon, the spot price is expected to remain strong [21]. - For cotton, short - term long positions need to be cautious. For sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. For eggs, the contracts after the Spring Festival are under pressure, and the far - month contracts have support. For apples, the price will fluctuate. For corn, it is advisable to go short on the 03 contract and control the position or choose the 3 - 7 reverse spread. For red dates, the market will fluctuate. For live pigs, the spot price is expected to fluctuate downward, and it is advisable to go short on the near - month contracts [23][26][28][30][31][32][33]. - For crude oil, it needs to be vigilant against the price increase caused by the further escalation of the Venezuelan situation in the short term. For fuel oil, the price will follow the oil price. For plastics, it is advisable to consider a weakening and fluctuating trend. For rubber, the short - term strategy of shorting the ru - nr spread should stop profit and wait and see. For synthetic rubber, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term. For methanol, the near - month contracts may have a slight rebound, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after the inventory is smoothly reduced. For caustic soda, avoid long positions in the near - month contracts and hold long positions in the main contract dynamically. For asphalt, the price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. For the polyester industry chain, it is advisable to go long lightly at low prices. For liquefied petroleum gas, the price will fluctuate. For pulp, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term. For logs, the price will fluctuate. For urea, it is advisable to maintain a fluctuating view [34][36][37][38][39][41][42][43][45][46][47]. Summary by Directory Futures Trend Based on Fundamental Analysis - Trend空头: Ethylene glycol, lithium carbonate, manganese silicon, silicon iron, live pigs, eggs, plastic [2]. - 震荡偏空: Liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, polycrystalline silicon [2]. - 震荡: Short - fiber, bottle - piece, p - xylene, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Stock Index Futures, ten - year bond, five - year bond, thirty - year bond, CSI 300 Stock Index Futures, CSI 1000 Index Futures, CSI 500 Stock Index Futures, two - year bond, cotton, zinc, synthetic rubber, rubber, log, pulp, caustic soda, offset printing paper, corn, red dates, urea, apple, rebar, iron ore, hot - rolled coil, glass, soda ash [2]. - 震荡偏多: None provided in the given content. - 趋势多头: None provided in the given content. Futures Trend Based on Quantitative Indicators - 偏空: Coke, PTA, Zhengzhou cotton, glass, manganese silicon, PVC, Shanghai silver [6]. - 震荡: Rebar, plastic, hot - rolled coil, palm oil, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai copper, corn starch, soybean No. 2, soybean No. 1, Shanghai lead, rubber, polypropylene, Shanghai tin, asphalt, methanol, corn, Shanghai gold, coking coal [6]. - 偏多: Rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, iron ore, eggs, sugar, soybean oil [6]. Macro News - The central bank launched a one - time credit repair policy for small - amount overdue personal information. - Vanke's 2 billion yuan bond extension plan was rejected again. - The State Council held a meeting on the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" outline. - Precious metals prices soared, and Wall Street was optimistic about the continued rise of gold prices. - China's December LPR remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. - The Central Economic Work Conference deployed multiple key - area reform tasks. - BYD confirmed the salary increase for R & D staff. - The Ukrainian delegation completed negotiations with the US and returned to Ukraine. - Trump will appoint a new Fed chairman in early January next year. - The Trump administration increased the cash subsidy for illegal immigrants' voluntary departure. - The EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for six months. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange took measures to cool down the silver futures market [8]. Macro - Financial Market Stock Index Futures - The A - share market rose with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69% to 3917.36, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.23%. The trading volume was 1.88 trillion yuan, a net increase of 130 billion yuan from the previous day. The 12 - month economic data may be weak, and the overseas data has uncertainties. The stock index continued to rebound, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the liquidity repair and the structure. If it is realized, the index may strengthen, and attention should be paid to IH [8][9]. Treasury Bond Futures - The funds were moderately loose, and the short - and medium - term bonds may fluctuate moderately upward, but the odds are more important than the direction. Without interest rate cuts, the market sentiment may decline. The 10 - year - and - below bonds are mainly supported by the decline of the funds' central level, and the ultra - long - term bonds are relatively weak. The curve is continuously steep. It is advisable to observe the MLF renewal operation and bond - buying logic first [10]. Black Market Steel and Ore - Policy: The Central Economic Work Conference met market expectations but had no new policies. The supply - side should pay attention to the deployment of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology at the end of December. - Fundamentals: The demand for building materials was weak, and there was an expectation of further decline in the off - season. The demand for coils was good, and the apparent demand was acceptable. The steel mills' profits were at a low level, and the iron - water output was expected to continue to decline. The inventory of five major steel products decreased month - on - month but remained high compared with last year. - Valuation: The raw - material futures prices were fluctuating weakly, and the cost was expected to continue to decrease. - Trend: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a bearish view on rallies in the medium and long term [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke - The price may fluctuate upward in the short term, but it is necessary to pay attention to the disturbances from coal - mine production, safety inspections, and the downstream winter - storage progress and iron - water output changes. In the medium term, the domestic mine's production rate is restricted by policies. In the short term, the coal supply has a contraction expectation, and the potential negative feedback from the weakening steel demand restricts the price increase. The inventory of upstream enterprises has increased, and the downstream replenishment is slow. The price may have a phased rebound, but the space is limited [13][14]. Ferroalloys - The hedging pressure of silicon alloys increases with the rising price. For manganese silicon, the cost is expected to decrease by about 25 yuan/ton. In the short term, pay attention to the possibility of the resumption of silicon - iron plants and the new - capacity launch of manganese silicon. In the medium term, both silicon alloys should be considered bearish on rallies [15]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: Some production - reduction enterprises have resumed production, but the supply may be affected by cost and new - capacity launch. It is advisable to wait and see. - Glass: There is an expectation of production reduction, but the impact on the market is gradually weakening. It is advisable to try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Shanghai Zinc - As of December 22, the domestic zinc inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate downward after the macro - positive factors fade. It is advisable to hold short positions [18]. Shanghai Lead - As of December 22, the lead inventory decreased. It is expected to maintain a low - inventory level. It is advisable to continue to hold short positions [18][19]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term demand is weakening. It may have a short - term correction after the market sentiment returns to rationality, but it will rise in the long - term and fluctuate widely [19][20]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: It is difficult to see production reduction in the short term, but there is a possibility of partial valuation repair. It may gradually shift to the game of polysilicon production - reduction expectations. - Polysilicon: The new delivery warehouses may put pressure on the near - month contracts in the short term. The spot price is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to the manufacturers' trading willingness [21]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, and the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The short - term long positions need to be cautious [23][24][25]. Sugar - The domestic and international sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. The new - sugar listing pressure will suppress the price. The Zhengzhou sugar price is undervalued. It is advisable to wait and see [26][27]. Eggs - The spot price has not risen as expected recently. The contracts after the Spring Festival are under pressure, and the far - month contracts have support. It is advisable to wait and see [28][29]. Apples - The apple delivery is slightly less year - on - year, the sales in the distribution area are slow, and the price of high - quality goods is firm. The price will fluctuate [30][31]. Corn - It is advisable to go short on the 03 contract and control the position or choose the 3 - 7 reverse spread. The supply - and - demand mismatch is being alleviated, and the far - month contracts are under supply pressure [31]. Red Dates - The market is in the digestion stage of new - product arrival, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream sales and procurement [32]. Live Pigs - The supply - exceeds - demand situation remains unchanged. The spot price is expected to fluctuate downward. It is advisable to go short on the near - month contracts and control the position [33]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - The situation in Venezuela has led to a rapid rebound in oil prices. In the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the price increase caused by the further escalation of the situation. In the medium - term, the oil price is under pressure due to the new supply wave and weakening demand [34][35]. Fuel Oil - The price is affected by geopolitics and the macro - environment. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price will follow the oil price [36]. Plastics - The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. The price may fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to consider a weakening and fluctuating trend [37]. Rubber - The short - term strategy of shorting the ru - nr spread should stop profit and wait and see. It is advisable to go long on dips with a stop - loss [37][38]. Synthetic Rubber - It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and be cautious about chasing up or down. The price is affected by raw - material prices, downstream procurement, and funds [39]. Methanol - The supply and demand situation has improved slightly, and the inventory has started to decrease. The near - month contracts may have a slight rebound, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after the inventory is smoothly reduced [39][40]. Caustic Soda - The near - month contracts should avoid long positions, and the long positions in the main contract should be held dynamically. The price is affected by the spot market and the overall commodity market [41]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The raw - material supply is affected by geopolitics [42]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is advisable to go long lightly at low prices. The PX price is expected to be strong, the PTA price follows the cost, the ethylene glycol price is relatively weak, and the short - fiber price has limited follow - up power [43]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price will fluctuate. The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the overall supply is abundant. The demand in winter is strong, but the chemical - industry pressure is high [43][44]. Pulp - The fundamentals are improving, and the price is pushed up by funds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term and consider option - selling strategies for high - cost positions [45]. Logs - The fundamentals are in a weak balance, and the price will fluctuate. The import volume has increased, and the external market price has a downward trend [46]. Urea - It is advisable to maintain a fluctuating view. The spot market is affected by coal prices and environmental protection policies. The futures market is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the demand recovery after the end of environmental protection restrictions [47].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-12-23 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力但供给收缩不及预期；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱，库存同期历 史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货944元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1031元/吨，基差为-87元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5855.80万重量箱，较前一周增加0.57%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、沙河地区"煤改气" ，行业冷修，产量损失。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单 ...