本报讯 为深入贯彻落实习近平总书记对做好"三农"工作的重要指示精神，积极践行服务实体经济的使 命，东证期货2025年持续扎实开展乡村振兴工作，将行业发展融入服务国家战略，多措并举推进一系列 帮扶项目，有效深化产业融合，全面壮大村集体经济，进一步推动乡村发展从"夯实基础"向"全面振 兴"跃升。 汇聚东证能量，深化公益帮扶 在过去一年里，东证期货从党建共建、产业振兴、消费帮扶及文化赋能等多方面开展公益帮扶项目。 强化党建引领，提升帮扶质效。公司始终坚持党的领导，以党建共建为纽带，与乡村振兴地区党组织深 化合作，"用心、用情、用力"实现资源共享、力量融合，深度凝聚发展共识。聚焦当地党员群众的急难 愁盼问题，通过"同上一堂党课"、慰问困难党员群众、支持党建活动室设备更新和搭建爱心图书吧等多 种形式，把一件件"关键小事"办成"暖心实事"。 发挥期货优势，深化专业帮扶 为进一步巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，东证期货携风险管理子公司东证润和，运用期货专业优势，深入了解 农户真实风险管理需求，积极参与交易所"保险+期货"项目，覆盖生猪、花生、苹果和天然橡胶等多品 种,切实发挥了农业收入"稳定器"的作用；在乡村振兴地区开展多次"保险+ ...

研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.53%报 5107.80 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 4.60%报 84.08 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约收涨 0.44%，报 1131 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 2.27%， | | | | | 报 20965 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 2 月 11 日，全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日增加 | | | | | 19.73 吨，当前持仓量为 16236.18 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 5.9%，维持利率 | | | | | 不变的概率为 94.1%。美联储到 4 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率 20.5%，维持利率不 | | | | | 变的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in U.S. non-farm employment in January 2026, which exceeded market expectations, and discusses its implications for monetary policy and various commodities [1][6][17]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, far surpassing the expected range of 50,000 to 75,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][6]. - The average hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding expectations [6]. Commodity Insights Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced high volatility following the employment data release, with a sharp decline as interest rate cut expectations cooled. However, long-term factors such as de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases continue to support prices [2][17]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, indicating ongoing support for gold prices [2][17]. Copper - Copper prices are currently in a consolidation phase, with tight supply of concentrates and fluctuating smelting profits. The overall smelting output remains high despite a month-on-month decline [3][18]. - Key indicators such as electricity investment and automotive production are showing positive trends, while the real estate sector remains weak [3][18]. Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices showed slight declines, with the construction materials sector leading gains and the communications sector lagging. The market's trading volume was 2 trillion yuan [10]. - Financing balances decreased by 3.828 billion yuan, indicating a cautious market outlook as the Spring Festival approaches [10]. Nickel Supply - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce nickel production, with a target output of 260-270 million tons for the year, which is lower than the 2025 target of 379 million tons. This move is expected to have a substantial impact on global nickel supply [1]. Other Commodities - The article also discusses trends in various commodities such as oil, methanol, and rubber, indicating a mixed outlook with some sectors facing supply constraints while others are adjusting to seasonal demand changes [12][13][14][15].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - Strategy**: 1) In January, inflation data indicated continuous price recovery. The logic of going long on inflation was initially strengthened, and IC was dominant. 2) Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher. The US January non - farm employment report was better than expected, but the sustainability of the employment market's recovery needed to be observed. Market expectations for interest rate cuts were postponed to July. 3) The US January non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and short - term interest rate cut expectations were postponed again. US stocks were expected to maintain high - level fluctuations. 4) The rebound of PPI in January exceeded market expectations. The bond market was expected to remain strong in the short term, but the odds of chasing the rise were limited. Consider shorting when the upward momentum weakened [1][2][3][20]. - **Commodities**: 1) Steel prices were expected to continue the oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. 2) Coking coal and coke prices were expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term. 3) The USDA February report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on cotton. ICE cotton prices were expected to maintain a weak oscillating pattern at a low level. Zheng cotton was expected to oscillate around the Spring Festival. 4) The palm oil market was expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider going long on dips if Malaysia's market remained weak. 5) The fundamentals of lithium carbonate were improving. After the Spring Festival, it was expected to see both supply and demand increase. Consider going long on dips. 6) For lead, consider mid - term long positions. 7) For zinc, adopt a wait - and - see approach before the Spring Festival and use double - buying for unilateral operations. 8) Crude oil prices were expected to remain oscillating and strong in the short term. 9) LPG prices were expected to be strongly oscillating. 10) For asphalt, adopt a cautious wait - and - see approach [23][26][31][34][38][40][45][48][50][51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro - Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In January, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year. The logic of going long on inflation was initially strengthened, and the CSI 500 index was dominant. It was recommended to continue holding the long - stock - index strategy [10][11]. 3.1.2 Macro - Strategy (Gold) - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the automatic conversion standard for silver hedging positions. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher. The US January non - farm employment report was better than expected, and market expectations for interest rate cuts were postponed to July. It was recommended to reduce positions for the Spring Festival [13][14]. 3.1.3 Macro - Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US January non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and short - term interest rate cut expectations were postponed again. US stocks were expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [17][18]. 3.1.4 Macro - Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - In January, CPI was lower than expected, and PPI was better than expected. The bond market was expected to remain strong in the short term, but the odds of chasing the rise were limited. Consider shorting when the upward momentum weakened [19][20][21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Mexico launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese seamless steel pipes. Steel prices were expected to continue the oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. It was recommended to adopt an oscillating mindset and pay attention to risks with light positions before the Spring Festival [22][23][24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The import coking coal forward market was stable and slightly strong. The spot market was expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival, and the futures market was expected to oscillate [25][26][27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The USDA February report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on cotton. ICE cotton prices were expected to maintain a weak oscillating pattern at a low level. Zheng cotton was expected to oscillate around the Spring Festival. It was recommended to hold light positions to avoid risks during the long holiday [28][30][31]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil market was expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider going long on dips if Malaysia's market remained weak. If planning to hold positions for the holiday, it was recommended to use options strategies [33][34][35]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The first part of the national standard for vehicle - use solid - state batteries was planned to be released in July 2026. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate were improving. After the Spring Festival, it was expected to see both supply and demand increase. Consider going long on dips [36][37][38]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - High - grade base metal mineralization was discovered in Queensland. Lead was currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Consider mid - term long positions [39][40][41]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some projects of Chihong Zinc & Germanium had progress. Zinc prices were mainly oscillating. Adopt a wait - and - see approach before the Spring Festival and use double - buying for unilateral operations [42][43][45]. 3.2.8 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's January production decreased by 440,000 barrels per day. Crude oil prices were expected to remain oscillating and strong in the short term [47][48][49]. 3.2.9 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - EIA propane weekly data showed certain changes. LPG prices were expected to be strongly oscillating [50]. 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The domestic heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate decreased. The asphalt market was expected to be light before the Spring Festival. It was recommended to adopt a cautious wait - and - see approach [50][51][52].

Group 1 - The current commodity market is transitioning from a "general rise" to "structural differentiation," with funds shifting towards undervalued sectors with solid fundamentals [1][2] - Precious metals are leading the market, followed by industrial metals, while energy and chemical sectors are starting to rise from low levels [1][2] - The historical divergence between "green metals" (copper, lithium, nickel) and traditional energy sources (crude oil, coal) is becoming evident, with the former experiencing tight supply and explosive demand, while the latter faces relaxed supply and slowing demand [2][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is more akin to a recovery phase rather than overheating, driven by demand growth from the AI technology revolution rather than traditional economic overheating [3] - The supply chain is shifting from a focus on efficiency to a focus on security, with resource country policies becoming key price drivers [3][4] - The recent price fluctuations in gold and silver are seen as corrections rather than reversals of long-term trends, with the long-term upward logic for these metals remaining intact [3][4] Group 3 - The current commodity cycle is characterized by a paradigm shift, with the strong performance of precious and strategic metals driven by structural narratives rather than robust global economic growth [5][6] - The traditional sequence of commodity price movements is being disrupted, with the new sequence being gold → new energy metals (copper/silver/lithium) → electric infrastructure (aluminum/zinc) → strategic minor metals (tungsten/tin/cobalt) [10][11] - The market is witnessing significant differentiation, with precious and non-ferrous metals showing strong performance while traditional economic growth-related sectors remain weak [10][11] Group 4 - The current commodity market is in a critical transition phase, similar to the 1970s, but with new variables such as energy transition and weakening dollar credit [9][10] - The price resilience of commodities is stronger, but the volatility is also more extreme due to the combination of historical inflation and new demand drivers like AI and green transition [9][10] - Investors are advised to focus on understanding the new market dynamics and structural changes rather than relying on historical patterns [10][11]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间2月11日，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨1.53%报5107.80美元/ 盎司，COMEX白银期货涨4.60%报84.08美元/盎司。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，上期所原油期货2604合约夜盘收涨0.82%，报479.80元人民币/桶。沪金夜盘收涨0.44%， 沪银收涨2.27%。 ...

"工具箱"里藏"玄机"：精准对接产业需求 "34亩地赔了7295元，每亩地自缴保费42.91元。"立春时节的新疆阿拉尔市第一师十三团仍寒风凛冽， 但边疆红合作社的屋内却暖意融融，枣农张艳秋摩挲着手中的理赔确认单，脸上笑开了花："不知道郑 商所是个什么样子，但是心里有底——数千里外的郑商所，连着我们沙漠里的枣园子！" 这份带给农户的安心，正是郑商所贯彻落实中央一号文件精神的生动注脚。2026年2月3日，《中共中央 国务院关于锚定农业农村现代化、扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》正式发布。这是党的十八大以来连续 第14个聚焦"三农"工作的中央一号文件，为"十五五"开局之年的"三农"事业发展擘画了清晰蓝图。作为 国家重要金融基础设施，郑商所坚守服务实体经济的初心使命，以学习运用"千万工程"经验为引领，通 过21个覆盖粮、棉、油、糖、果的农产品期货及期权工具，在优化产品供给、强化支农惠农、推动产业 融合的道路上稳步前行，让期货市场的金融"活水"精准滴灌乡村振兴的沃土。 "加强农产品期货市场建设"，2026年中央一号文件的明确部署，为期货市场服务"三农"指明了工作方 向。回望2025年，郑商所一方面加快新产品研发，一方面优化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The integration of futures trading into the operations of a copper processing company has significantly improved its ability to manage raw material price volatility, leading to increased confidence and production capacity expansion [1][7]. Group 1: Company Operations and Futures Integration - The copper processing company recycles scrap copper to produce copper plates and rods, which are used in various industries such as cables and home appliances [2]. - The company initially faced significant price volatility in copper, leading to anxiety over potential losses, prompting them to seek risk management tools [2][3]. - After implementing a futures hedging strategy, the company reported a 30% year-on-year increase in refined copper production in 2025, with monthly production exceeding 10,000 tons [3]. Group 2: Risk Management and Strategy Development - The company developed a tailored hedging plan with the assistance of a futures company, which included dynamic inventory management and accounting integration [4]. - The company learned that different industries require different hedging strategies, emphasizing the importance of practical experience in refining these strategies [4][5]. - The use of options, such as selling call options, has been introduced to enhance revenue while managing risk [5]. Group 3: Communication and Support - Continuous communication between the futures company and the copper processing company has been crucial for refining hedging strategies and addressing potential risks [6]. - The futures company has provided not only trading support but also facilitated connections with potential customers, broadening the company's sales channels [6]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The copper processing company plans to expand its production capacity further in 2026, reflecting increased confidence from effective risk management through futures [7]. - The broader trend shows that more companies across various sectors are recognizing the value of futures markets for risk management and operational stability [8][9].

Core Insights - The global photovoltaic (PV) installation capacity has grown at an average annual rate of over 24% in the past five years, while the prices of PV products have continued to decline, leading to intensified price competition and volatility in raw material prices [1] - A leading photovoltaic welding strip company in Jiangsu has managed to maintain stable operations despite significant increases in copper and tin prices in 2024, thanks to a risk management strategy involving financial derivatives [1] - The collaboration between the company and Nanhua Futures has sparked a trend in risk management within the Suzhou industrial cluster, highlighting the importance of financial tools in mitigating raw material price risks [2][3] Company Overview - The photovoltaic welding strip company, recognized as a high-tech enterprise in Jiangsu, has established itself as an industry benchmark due to its high market share [1] - The company faced challenges related to raw material price fluctuations, particularly for copper and tin, which could lead to increased costs and inventory management difficulties [1] - Following a year of risk management service from Nanhua Futures, the company signed a contract for investment consulting, indicating a deepening partnership [1] Risk Management Strategy - Nanhua Futures provided a tailored hedging solution focusing on futures and options to address the company's concerns about rising raw material prices and inventory management [1] - The company successfully locked in sufficient quantities of copper and tin ahead of price surges in 2024, demonstrating effective risk mitigation [2] - The introduction of new risk hedging tools, such as options, has further strengthened the company's risk management capabilities [2] Industry Impact - The successful collaboration between the company and Nanhua Futures has influenced other enterprises in the Suzhou industrial cluster, leading to increased interest in financial derivatives for risk management [2][3] - Local banks and securities firms have facilitated the connection between industries and futures institutions, accelerating the adoption of risk management practices [2] - The ongoing "dual carbon" policy and the transition in the photovoltaic sector underscore the necessity for robust risk management as a core competency for companies in the renewable energy industry [3]