Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PVC industry has significant fundamental pressure, with a low basis. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate downward, and the recommended strategy is to sell short at high prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price has slightly increased in some regions. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.11 percentage points to 77.13% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has slightly increased but is still low compared to previous years, and procurement is cautious [1]. - India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has raised its September quotation by $10 - 30 per ton. Recent export orders are average. On August 14, India announced a new anti - dumping duty on imported PVC, with an increase of about $50 per ton for the Chinese mainland. The export outlook for Chinese PVC in the second half of the year is weakening [1]. - Social inventory has continued to increase and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. From January to July 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion [1]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate increased last week and remains high. New production capacities are coming on stream, including Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year production line in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year production line expected to be in stable production in September after trial production in August, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 - ton/year and Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year production lines planned for trial runs in September [1]. - The support from calcium carbide prices is still weak, and PVC faces significant pressure before the demand is substantially improved. There are no actual policies implemented in the PVC industry yet, and most old devices have been upgraded through technological innovation. The macro - policy of anti - involution and elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry will affect the subsequent market [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 4,838 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,896 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4,888 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.80%. The position volume decreased by 23,861 lots to 1,242,667 lots [2]. Basis - On September 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4,680 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,857 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 208 yuan/ton, weakening by 31 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, maintenance devices such as Gansu Yinguang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics have resumed production. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.11 percentage points to 77.13% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities are coming on stream as mentioned above [5]. - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to July 2025, the national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. The commercial housing sales area was 515.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; the residential sales area decreased by 4.1%. The commercial housing sales volume was 495.66 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 6.2%. The new construction area of houses was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%; the new construction area of residential houses was 258.81 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The completion area of houses was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%; the completion area of residential houses was 180.67 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%. The overall improvement of the real estate market still takes time [6]. - As of the week of September 7, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 30.28% week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [6]. - As of the week of September 4, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.44% week - on - week to 918,200 tons, an increase of 3.73% compared to the same period last year. Social inventory has continued to increase and remains high [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long L - P [3] Core View - The downstream demand is in the transition period between the seasonal peak and off - peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The operating rates of downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films show a slight upward trend, while those of plastic weaving and BOPP films are flat month - on - month. The overall demand follows up slowly. Multiple PE plants are under maintenance, and the overall operating rate decreases slightly, with the supply pressure expected to ease slightly. New PP production capacity is being released. The upstream production inventory increases slightly, the inventory in the middle - stream decreases, and the downstream rigid demand procurement increases. With the arrival of the peak demand season in mid - to late September, the downstream operating rate is expected to rise, and the short - term supply - demand margin may improve. Crude oil is weakly consolidating, the profit of PDH - made PP is slightly in the red, and the maintenance volume of PDH plants increases [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Analyze the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts and the basis between LL East China and the main contract, as well as PP East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - Include the production profit of LL (crude oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude oil - based and PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [16][19][27] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Compare the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [26][33][34] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Analyze the import and export profits of LL and PP, including LL import profit, LL price differences in different regions, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), and price differences of PP homopolymer injection molding in different regions [39][52][59] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - Cover the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural films, packaging films, and PP downstream plastic weaving, BOPP films, injection molding, as well as the production gross profits of PP downstream plastic weaving and BOPP films [56][63][70] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - Include the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [72][76][81]

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is currently facing challenges, with expectations of a downward trend due to high inventory levels and weak demand [1] Supply and Demand - Upstream calcium carbide prices have increased by 50 yuan/ton in certain regions [1] - PVC operating rates have increased by 1.11 percentage points to 77.13%, which is relatively high for this time of year [1] - Downstream operating rates have seen a slight increase but remain low year-on-year, leading to cautious purchasing behavior [1] Market Conditions - India's BIS policy has been extended until December 24, 2025, while Taiwan's Formosa Plastics raised prices by $10 to $30/ton in September [1] - On August 14, India raised the anti-dumping tax on PVC imports from mainland China by approximately $50/ton, leading to weakened export expectations for Chinese PVC in the second half of the year [1] - Social inventory continues to rise and remains at high levels, indicating significant inventory pressure [1] Real Estate Impact - From January to July 2025, the real estate sector is in an adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completed area [1] - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has decreased compared to the same period last year, reaching the lowest level historically [1] Production and Capacity - The chlor-alkali comprehensive profit remains positive, and PVC operating rates have increased while still being relatively high [1] - New production capacities are coming online, with Wanhua Chemical starting production in August, Tianjin Bohua expected to stabilize production in September, and Gansu Yaowang and Qingdao Haigang planning trial runs in September [1] Price and Futures - Calcium carbide price support is weak, and PVC faces significant pressure until demand improves [1] - Currently, there are no substantial policies affecting the PVC industry, and many older facilities are undergoing technical upgrades [1] - The PVC2601 futures contract saw a reduction in positions, with a minimum price of 4818 yuan/ton and a maximum of 4878 yuan/ton, closing at 4857 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [1] - As of September 10, the mainstream price of calcium carbide method PVC in East China was 4680 yuan/ton, with the V2601 futures closing price at 4857 yuan/ton, resulting in a basis of -177 yuan/ton, which is considered low [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PVC is in a phase of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decline. The supply - demand of PVC continues the extremely weak trend, with high - level production supply, weak domestic and export demand, and continuous accumulation of social inventory, which has now reached a level close to that of the same period last year [3]. - For traders, terminal customers, and production enterprises with inventory, it is recommended to short - hedge futures based on the weak reality. For those who need to purchase PVC, it is recommended to purchase as needed, and to buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Supply - Demand Situation Supply - In August, the overall PVC production showed an increasing trend. Although maintenance caused a certain reduction in supply, the release of new production capacity of 500,000 tons led to an overall increase in production [6]. - In 2025, the first - quarter production capacity of 300,000 tons was put into operation. Fujian Wanhua's 600,000 - ton capacity was included in production on August 2. It is expected that the annual production capacity growth rate will be 6.37%, and the pressure of production capacity release remains high [8]. - In August, PVC start - up first increased and then decreased, mainly related to its maintenance plan. There were fewer maintenance plans in the first ten - day period, with the start - up reaching around 79 - 80. In the middle and late ten - day periods, maintenance increased, and the start - up dropped to around 72 - 38 [8]. Demand - The current downstream start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, especially the start - up of pipe enterprises has deteriorated significantly. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials. Production is weak in the high - temperature summer season [9]. - This week, the sample of PVC production enterprises decreased by 2.17% month - on - month and increased by 9.13% year - on - year. As of August 17, the final anti - dumping duty decision on PVC in India is waiting for the announcement of the Indian Ministry of Finance, estimated to be announced and implemented in about 20 - 30 days. The prices in the Chinese mainland have generally increased by 46 - 62 US dollars/ton, while those in Japan, South Korea, the United States, and Chinese Taipei have decreased. In the short term, there is a certain rush - to - export performance. Pay attention to the implementation time of the Indian anti - dumping duty, which will have a negative impact on China's exports if implemented [9]. Inventory - As of August 28, the original sample inventory in East China was 445,400 tons, an increase of 3.44% from the previous period and a decrease of 3.91% year - on - year. The expanded sample inventory in East China was 766,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.89%. The sample inventory in South China was 52,500 tons, an increase of 1.74% from the previous period and an increase of 44.23% year - on - year. The total original sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 497,900 tons, an increase of 3.26% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The total expanded sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 819,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [182]. Raw Materials - **Lancoke**: In August, the Lancoke price rose slightly twice. The price of medium - sized Lancoke in Shaanxi increased from 606 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 645 yuan/ton, a 6.6% increase. The start - up rate of Lancoke increased from 53.65% at the beginning of the month to 56.7%. In the future, with the end of some enterprise maintenance and the weakening of coal prices, the start - up of Lancoke enterprises is expected to further increase [68]. - **Calcium carbide**: In August, the calcium carbide market price showed a flat "V" - shaped trend, with the end - of - month price rising compared to the beginning. The average start - up load rate of the calcium carbide industry decreased in the first ten - day period, then rebounded and stabilized. In the future, most calcium carbide start - ups may remain stable, but the increase in start - up may be limited [73]. - **Caustic soda**: In August, the price center of liquid caustic soda moved up. The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased from 820 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 870 yuan/ton, a 6.1% increase. The start - up of caustic soda decreased from 83.9% at the beginning of the month to 82.4%. In the future, it is expected that the short - term liquid caustic soda price will remain strong, and the caustic soda profit will continue to make up for the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [78]. 3.2 Monthly Price Data Changes - Futures prices: V2601 decreased from 5,176 yuan/ton at the end of July to 4,907 yuan/ton on August 29, a decrease of 269 yuan/ton; AS60E decreased from 5,469 yuan/ton to 5,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 269 yuan/ton [14]. - PVC spot prices: The calcium - carbide method prices in East, South, North, and Northwest China all decreased to varying degrees; the ethylene - method price in East China decreased from 5,100 yuan/ton to 5,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [14]. - Prices of related products in the PVC industry chain: The prices of Lancoke, ethylene, and 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the prices of calcium carbide in Shandong and 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Inner Mongolia decreased [14]. - Spreads: The V2601 - 2605 spread remained unchanged at - 293 yuan/ton; the 01 basis increased from - 355 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton [14]. - Profits: The comprehensive profit of calcium - carbide method (northwest integrated chlor - alkali) decreased from 590.91 yuan/ton to 376.61 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit of calcium - carbide method (north - China purchased calcium carbide) decreased from 169 yuan/ton to 19.35 yuan/ton; the profit of ethylene - method (east - China purchased VCM) increased from 5.20 yuan/ton to 27.38 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Disk Review and Disk Data - **This month's market review**: In August, the PVC price first oscillated and then weakened under the increasing supply - demand pressure. By the afternoon of August 29, the price dropped to around 4,907, a 4.74% decrease from the beginning of the month [19]. - **Disk data performance**: After the main contract shifted to 01, the 01 basis in East China was around - 280; the 1 - 5 spread remained weak at around - 293. The position of the 01 contract was around 1.195 million lots, a record high. The registered warrants increased from 583,000 lots at the beginning of the month to around 841,000 lots at the end of the month [20][21]. 3.4 Spreads and Profits Regional Spreads and Quality Spreads - **Regional spreads**: The spread between East - and South - China calcium - carbide method first strengthened from around - 150 to around - 50 and then returned to the initial level; the spread between East - and North - China calcium - carbide method weakened from - 45 to around - 83 [37]. - **Ethylene - calcium - carbide spread**: The ethylene - calcium - carbide spread strengthened from 305 to around 373 [37]. Profits - The profit of calcium - carbide method PVC in Northwest China (integrated with self - owned power plant) and the profit of calcium - carbide method PVC in North China (purchased calcium carbide) both decreased; the profit of ethylene - method PVC (purchased VCM) increased [14]. 3.5 Related Products in the Industrial Chain Calcium - Carbide Method - **Lancoke**: Lancoke is the raw material for calcium carbide. In August, the price of Lancoke in Shaanxi increased slightly, and the start - up rate increased. In the future, the start - up of Lancoke enterprises is expected to further increase [68]. - **Calcium carbide**: Calcium carbide is the main raw material for calcium - carbide method PVC. In August, the price of calcium carbide first decreased and then increased, and the start - up rate first decreased and then stabilized. In the future, the start - up of calcium carbide may remain stable, but the increase may be limited [73]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is usually produced in conjunction with PVC. In August, the price of caustic soda increased, and the start - up rate decreased. In the future, it is expected that the short - term caustic soda price will remain strong, and the caustic soda profit will continue to make up for the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [78]. 3.6 Production Capacity Release Progress - **Put - into - production capacity**: In 2024, Xinshu Chemical's 250,000 - ton ethylene - method device was trial - produced smoothly and put into production; in 2025, Fujian Wanhua's 500,000 - ton ethylene - method device was included in production on August 2 [93]. - **Withdrawn capacity**: In 2025, Hubei Yihua's 120,000 - ton calcium - carbide method device withdrew from production [93]. - **Planned production capacity**: In 2025, Huade Development's 400,000 - ton ethylene - method device is planned to be put into production in September; Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton ethylene - method device is planned to be put into production in September; Jiahua Energy's 800,000 - ton device is planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter [94]. 3.7 Start - Up and Maintenance - In August, PVC start - up first increased and then decreased, mainly related to its maintenance plan. The overall production in August increased due to the release of new production capacity [102]. - On August 29, the overall start - up load rate of PVC powder was 73.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%. The start - up load rate of calcium - carbide method PVC powder was 75.24%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83%; the start - up load rate of ethylene - method PVC powder was 68.68% [102]. 3.8 Import and Export Volume Statistics - In July 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,500 tons, with a cumulative import of 148,800 tons from January to July. The single - month import increased by 2.10% month - on - month and 46.98% year - on - year. The cumulative import increased by 0.03% year - on - year. The import mainly came from the United States and Northeast Asia, and the import dependence was about 1% [125]. - In July 2025, the PVC export volume was 330,600 tons, with a cumulative export of 2,291,000 tons from January to July. The single - month export increased by 26.17% month - on - month and 112.82% year - on - year. The cumulative export increased by 56.91% year - on - year. The main export destinations were India and Vietnam [125]. 3.9 Downstream Start - Up Load - The current downstream start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, especially the start - up of pipe enterprises has deteriorated significantly. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials [9]. 3.10 Terminal Situation - In the real estate industry, from January to July, the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate investment was 12%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in new construction area was 19.4%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in construction area was 9.2%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in completion area was 16.5%. The real estate industry may still be in a downturn, and the demand for PVC may continue to shrink [178]. 3.11 Inventory - As of August 28, the inventory in East and South China continued to increase. The total original sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 497,900 tons, an increase of 3.26% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The total expanded sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 819,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [182]. - The sample production enterprise's PVC powder available inventory increased, and the factory inventory decreased [184].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Plastic - Supply - demand contradiction eases, with strong bottom support. The "Golden September and Silver October" traditional consumption season is coming, downstream demand shows signs of recovery, and supply pressure eases, but there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the LL main contract will fluctuate in the range of 7200 - 7500, and short - selling opportunities should be watched [8]. PP - There is significant trend pressure, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Although the supply side maintains high pressure, the downward space of the market is limited. It is expected that the PP main contract will fluctuate weakly, and the range of 6950 - 7300 should be watched [9]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On August 29, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7287 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 63 yuan/ton or - 0.86%. The average price of LDPE was 9650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%; the average price of HDPE was 7982.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%; the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7591.18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.09%. The LLDPE South China basis was 304.18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 90.81%; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 68 yuan/ton (- 5), with the basis widening and the month spread narrowing [8][11]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil was at 64.01 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 5.35 US dollars/barrel from the previous month; Brent crude oil was at 67.46 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 4.32 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+30). The profit of oil - based PE was - 305 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton from the previous month; the profit of coal - based PE was 936 yuan/ton, a decrease of 206 yuan/ton from the previous month [8]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of polyethylene was 78.68%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points from the previous month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 61.78 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. The maintenance of petrochemical enterprise equipment remained at a high level, and the maintenance loss this week was 13.20 tons, an increase of 0.92 tons from the previous week [8][32]. - **Demand**: The overall domestic agricultural film start - up rate was 17.46%, an increase of 4.83% from the previous month; the PE packaging film start - up rate was 49.56%, an increase of 1.49% from the previous month; the PE pipe start - up rate was 30.17%, an increase of 1.34% from the previous month [8][39]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 56.20 tons, an increase of 0.36 tons or 0.64% from the end of last month [8]. Main Operating Logic - The traditional consumption season is coming, downstream demand recovers, and supply pressure eases. However, due to the large amount of production capacity to be put into operation in the second half of the year, there is still resistance to upward breakthrough. The short - term supply - demand contradiction eases, which strongly supports the market [8]. Key Points of Attention - Downstream demand, Fed rate cuts, Sino - US talks, Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations [8]. PP Market Changes - On August 29, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6974 yuan/ton, a decrease of 144 yuan/ton from the previous month [9][53]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil was at 64.01 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 5.35 US dollars/barrel from the previous month; Brent crude oil was at 67.46 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 4.32 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+30). The profit of oil - based PP was - 327.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.90 yuan/ton from the previous month; the profit of coal - based PP was 364.08 yuan/ton, a decrease of 212.60 yuan/ton from the previous month [9][70]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 80.00%, an increase of 3.06 percentage points from the previous month. The weekly output of PP pellets was 80.88 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.86%; the weekly output of PP powder was 7.39 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.29% [9][77]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate was 49.74% (+1.37). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 42.30% (-1.20), the start - up rate of BOPP was 60.40% (+0.40%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 57.44% (+1.64%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 36.37% (+0.20%) [9][83]. - **Inventory**: The domestic PP inventory was 53.85 tons (-5.91%); the inventory of two major oil companies decreased by 12.93% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 1.81% month - on - month; the port inventory increased by 2.73% month - on - month [9][92]. Main Operating Logic - The weekly output of PP has increased again, and the supply side remains loose. Although downstream demand is still weak, there is an expectation of an increase in start - up due to the consumption season and low prices. The downward space of the market is limited [9]. Key Points of Attention - Downstream demand, Fed rate cuts, Sino - US talks, Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [8][10] - **Negative factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [10] - **Main logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and sluggish domestic demand recovery [11] - **Expected trend**: The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,874 - 4,940. Continued attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Likely factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [8][10] - **Negative factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [10] - **Main logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and sluggish domestic demand recovery [11] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 330,135 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.57%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 125,160 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.34%. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase slightly [7] - **Demand side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.61%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, flat month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 69.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.27 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [7][8] - **Cost side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 399.2026 yuan/ton, with losses increasing by 79.20% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 627.9512 yuan/ton, with losses increasing by 6.10% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,717.05 yuan/ton, with profits decreasing by 0.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure [7] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, and production of different types of PVC, as well as operating rates and profit margins of downstream industries [13] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trend chart of PVC basis, including the basis, PVC market price in East China, and the closing price of the main contract [15][16] 3.5 PVC Futures Market - The report shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract, as well as the position changes of the top 5/20 seats [19] 3.6 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the historical trend chart of the main contract spreads of PVC futures, including 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads [21][22] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Lanthanum Coke - The report shows the historical data of lanthanum coke prices, costs, profits, operating rates, inventory, and daily production [24][25] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Calcium Carbide - The report shows the historical data of calcium carbide prices, costs, profits, operating rates, maintenance losses, and production [27][28] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt - The report shows the historical data of liquid chlorine and raw salt prices, production, and monthly production [30][31] 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda - The report shows the historical data of caustic soda prices, costs, profits, operating rates, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, and inventory [32][33][34] 3.11 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - The report shows the historical data of PVC production capacity utilization rates, profits, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of sample enterprises [36][37][38] 3.12 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - The report shows the historical data of PVC traders' daily sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream industries [40][41][42] 3.13 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - The report shows the historical data of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [54][55] 3.14 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - The report shows the historical data of vinyl chloride imports, dichloroethane imports, PVC exports, and price spreads [56][57] 3.15 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report shows the supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports [60]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Ruida Futures indicates that the short-term L2601 contract is expected to show a fluctuating trend [1] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates a weak fluctuation for the L2601 contract in the short term, with a resistance level around 7380 [2] - The supply side shows a slight decrease in PE production by 0.50% to 617,800 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.72%, indicating stable supply conditions [1] Group 2 - The average operating rate of downstream PE products increased by 0.3%, with agricultural film operating rates rising by 2.9%, suggesting a seasonal demand increase [1] - Production enterprise inventory rose by 12.91% to 501,900 tons, while social inventory decreased by 2.14% to 556,500 tons, indicating manageable total inventory pressure [1] - Recent international oil prices have seen a slight increase, providing some cost support, while the EIA reported a larger-than-expected decrease in weekly inventories [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The traditional consumption peak seasons "Golden September and Silver October" are approaching. The demand for PE downstream agricultural films and greenhouse films is gradually starting, and the packaging film industry is stocking up in advance. The plastic products industry is recovering with the seasonal demand growth of home appliances and automobiles. The number of PE parking and maintenance devices has increased, slightly alleviating the supply pressure. However, the overall current operation is still at a relatively high level, with production enterprises accumulating inventory and upstream facing certain de - stocking pressure. The PP operation rate is flat month - on - month, and the inventory in the upstream and mid - stream links has decreased slightly. New PP production capacity is continuously being released. The international oil price shows a weak trend, the oil - based production profit is acceptable, the propane price has increased slightly, and the PDH - based PP profit is near the break - even point [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - It includes the trend of plastic futures' main contracts and the basis between LL East China and the main contract, as well as the trend of polypropylene futures' main contracts and the basis between PP East China and the main contract [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operation Rate - For PE, it involves LL production profit (crude oil - based), PE operation rate, PE weekly output, and PE maintenance loss. For PP, it includes PP production profit (crude oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operation rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [19][22][29] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - It covers the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [28][35][36] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - For LL, it includes LL import profit, the price difference between LL US Gulf FOB and China CFR, the price difference between LL Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and the price difference between LL Europe FD and China CFR. For PP, it involves PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), and the price differences between PP homopolymer injection molding from different regions and China CFR [43][53][61] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operation and Downstream Profit - It includes the operation rates of PE downstream agricultural films, packaging films, and winding films, as well as the operation rates and production profits of PP downstream plastic weaving, BOPP, and injection molding [62][63][71] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - It includes the inventories of PE oil - based enterprises, PE coal - chemical enterprises, PE traders, PE ports, PP oil - based enterprises, PP coal - chemical enterprises, PP traders, and PP ports [73][78][83]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Color Masterbatch Co., Ltd. reported a stable business performance with a revenue of 219 million yuan and a net profit of 51.39 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.50% in net profit [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating income of 219 million yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51.39 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.50% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 43.21 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.20% [1] - Research and development expenses amounted to 8.08 million yuan, accounting for 3.68% of operating income, ensuring continuous innovation capability [1] Group 2: Business Strategy and Operations - The company maintains strategic focus and relies on a solid foundation in the plastic color masterbatch sector, which is the main driver of its performance [1] - It adopts an independent research and development model with multiple core technologies and intellectual property rights [1] - The company emphasizes a customer-tailored order model, optimizing product structure and enhancing core competitiveness [1] Group 3: Industry Position and Product Offering - Ningbo Color Masterbatch specializes in the research, production, sales, and technical services of color masterbatches, providing customized plastic coloring products [2] - Its products are widely used in various industries, including electronics, daily necessities, food and beverage, chemicals, construction materials, agriculture, automotive, and medical sectors [2] - The company has established long-term stable partnerships with numerous well-known enterprises and has become one of the leading suppliers of plastic color masterbatches in China [2]

Group 1 - The company, 聚赛龙, specializes in modified general plastics, modified engineering plastics, and modified special engineering plastics, and is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and a national specialized and innovative small giant enterprise [2] - 聚赛龙 was established in 1998 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's ChiNext board in March 2022, with the stock code 301131 [2] - The company has two major production bases located in East and South China, and its core products have received UL and CQC certifications [2] Group 2 - For the period from January to March 2025, 聚赛龙 reported an operating income of 360.3 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.8 million yuan, up 9.32% year-on-year [2] - The company's net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 15.59 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.75% [2] - As of May 2025, 聚赛龙 has a highly concentrated shareholder structure, with 10,130 shareholders and an average of 3,041 circulating shares per person, amounting to an average holding value of 138,000 yuan [2] Group 3 - The convertible bond, 赛龙转债, experienced a decline of 2.02%, trading at 156.958 yuan per bond, with a transaction volume of 89.88 million yuan and a conversion premium rate of 9.51% [1] - The bond has a credit rating of "A+" and a maturity period of 6 years, with interest rates increasing from 0.30% in the first year to 2.80% in the sixth year [1] - The conversion price for the bond is set at 36.4 yuan, with the conversion period starting on January 13, 2025 [1]