聚丙烯：短期反弹，中期趋势仍偏弱 观点综述 1 本周PP观点：短期反弹，中期趋势仍偏弱 | | 本周国内聚丙烯产量80.68万吨，相较上周的80.83万吨减少0.15万吨，跌幅0.19%；相较去年同期的67.4万吨增加13.28万吨，涨幅19.7%。 | | --- | --- | | | 周内赛科、大港石化及巨正源等装置恢复开工，但上海石化、茂名石化等装置停车检修，聚丙烯损失量量数据窄幅走高，受此影响，产量 | | | 数据小幅下滑。 | | | 周产能利用率变化分析：本期聚丙烯平均产能利用率78.14%，环比下降0.14%；中石化产能利用率79.65%，环比下降1.59%。周内茂名 | | 供应 | 石化二线30万吨/年及上海石化三线20万吨/年等装置检修，使得中石化产能利用率下降。上海赛科25万吨/年及独山子石化老二线等装置 | | | 停车，使得聚丙烯平均产能利用率下降。 | | | 下周来看，中化泉州二线35万吨/年计划检修，东莞巨正源、天津渤化等存重启计划，计划内检修损失量预期下降。计划外检修来看， | | | 丙烷/丙烯等原料价格强势，挤占下游PP生产企业利润，聚丙烯边际装置运行压力增加，关注后 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, but the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased. The 11 - month petrochemical destocking slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The cost - side crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. Although the supply of new production capacity is added and the maintenance devices are slightly reduced, the downstream is at the end of the peak season, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and it is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and the plastic weaving orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On November 28, the changes in maintenance devices were small, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at about 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to about 28%. In November, the petrochemical destocking slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. There is new production capacity in supply, and the maintenance devices have slightly decreased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. Although the relevant departments' research work has given some boost to bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and it is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6302 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6413 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6409 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.91%. The position volume decreased by 50,595 lots to 506,658 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of PP in various regions mostly increased. The drawstring was reported at 6150 - 6480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 28, the changes in maintenance devices were small, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at about 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to about 28%. On the demand side, as of the week of November 28, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and the plastic weaving orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday was flat week - on - week at 650,000 tons, 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. In November, the petrochemical destocking slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 02 contract rose to $63/barrel, and the China CFR propylene price was flat week - on - week at $735/ton [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - Supply exceeds demand, and cost support weakens, so PP is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate rose 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week-on-week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstrings, remained flat at 44.24%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On November 27, there was little change in maintenance devices, PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 83%, at a neutral to low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstrings remained at around 31% [1][4] - Petrochemical destocking slowed down in November, and current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral to high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - Crude oil prices declined due to the lack of impact on Russia's oil production from new sanctions and the push for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - A new 400,000-ton/year production capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid-October, and there was a slight decrease in maintenance devices recently [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, closing at 6,295 yuan/ton, down 0.03%, and the position volume decreased by 29,319 lots to 557,253 lots [2] - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions were stable, with drawstrings quoted at 6,150 - 6,480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 27, there was little change in maintenance devices, and PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 83%, at a neutral to low level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of November 21, PP downstream operating rate rose 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week-on-week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstrings, remained flat at 44.24%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory: Petrochemical early inventory on Thursday decreased by 0.5 million tons to 65 million tons week-on-week, 4.5 million tons higher than the same period last year [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 02 contract fell below $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $735 per ton week-on-week [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to supply surplus and weakened cost support, PP is expected to experience a weak and volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders week - on - week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On November 26, the restart of overhauled units such as a single line of Dagang Petrochemical drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 83%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard drawstring remained at around 31% [1][4] - In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West did not affect Russia's oil production. Trump's administration is actively promoting a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky is open to peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of overhauled units has decreased recently. As the downstream enters the end of the peak season, the follow - up of orders for plastic weaving is limited, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6,258 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,332 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,265 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.42%. The open interest decreased by 19,187 lots to 586,572 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions partially declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6,150 - 6,480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On November 26, the restart of overhauled units such as a single line of Dagang Petrochemical drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 83%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand side: As of the week of November 21, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders week - on - week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Petrochemical early inventory on Wednesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 655,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year. In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw material end - crude oil: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $735 per ton week - on - week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp decline in oil prices has weakened the cost - side support. For PE, there is supply pressure due to the release of new production capacity and the approaching of the demand off - season, while for PP, the supply - demand situation remains weak in the short term, and the cost - side support shows different trends for different production methods [1][2] - The recommended strategies are to cautiously sell short LLDPE for hedging, maintain a neutral stance on PP, conduct reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when prices are high, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3] 3. Summaries According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 6762 yuan/ton (- 31), PP main contract at 6317 yuan/ton (- 55), LL North China spot at 6800 yuan/ton (+ 0), LL East China spot at 6900 yuan/ton (+ 0), PP East China spot at 6360 yuan/ton (- 20), LL North China basis at 38 yuan/ton (+ 31), LL East China basis at 138 yuan/ton (+ 31), PP East China basis at 43 yuan/ton (+ 35) [1] - Upstream supply: PE operating rate was 82.7% (- 0.4%), PP operating rate was 78.3% (- 1.3%) [1] - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 296.4 yuan/ton (- 54.1), PP oil - based production profit was - 463.6 yuan/ton (- 54.1), PDH - based PP production profit was - 414.4 yuan/ton (- 21.4) [1] - Imports and exports: LL import profit was - 11.1 yuan/ton (+ 10.3), PP import profit was - 231.8 yuan/ton (- 10.1), PP export profit was 2.8 US dollars/ton (+ 1.2) [1] - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 49.9% (- 0.1%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 50.9% (+ 0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.2% (+ 0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 62.6% (+ 0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Supply - side device maintenance has increased slightly, but new production capacity is being released, and demand is entering the off - season. Cost - side support from oil - based production has weakened due to the decline in oil prices [2] - PP: The supply - demand situation remains weak in the short term. Although maintenance devices have increased, it has limited impact on the oversupply situation. Demand is also weakening, and the cost - side support for oil - based production has weakened while that for PDH has strengthened [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously sell short LLDPE for hedging, neutral on PP [3] - Inter - period: Reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when prices are high [3] - Cross - variety: None [3]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月25日 【行情分析】 PP下游开工率环比上涨0.29个百分点至53.57%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但其中拉丝主力下游塑 编开工率持平于44.24%，塑编订单环比略有减少，略低于去年同期。11月25日，上海赛科单线等检修 装置重启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至82%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例上涨至31%左 右。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水平。成本端，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示， 美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火， 泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，原油价格下跌。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10 月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有减少。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单跟进持续性有限，市场缺乏 大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。PP产业还未有反内卷实际政策落 地，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策，将影响后续行情。预计PP 偏弱震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2601合约增仓震荡下行，最低价6313元/吨，最高价6 ...

上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.7%（-0.4%），PP开工率为78.3%（-1.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为350.5元/吨（+9.1），PP油制生产利润为-389.5元/吨（+9.1），PDH制PP生产利润 为-393.0元/吨（-53.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-21.4元/吨（-54.6），PP进口利润为-221.6元/吨（-54.4），PP出口利润为1.6美元/吨（+6.8）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为49.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.6%（+0.0%）。 市场分析 聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-25 需求季节性转弱，短期上行驱动有限 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6793元/吨（+23），PP主力合约收盘价为6372元/吨（+15），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6900元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6380元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为7元/吨（-23），LL华 东基差为107元/吨（-23）， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyethylene is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The contract is 12601. With the capacity being put into production, new devices are gradually coming into operation, and the existing production load is also high. Meanwhile, imports are expected to increase in Q4, leading to significant supply pressure. As the demand enters the end of the peak season and struggles to digest the high output, the price center of polyethylene may continue to move downward [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: Affected by the futures market, the spot price also declined. The basis strengthened overall. The basis in East China strengthened by 60 to around 180 yuan/ton, remained flat in North China at around -20 yuan/ton, and weakened by 10 to around 190 yuan/ton in South China. The non - standard basis showed a similar trend [20]. - **Spread on the Futures Market**: The 1 - 5 spread remained slightly at around -60, at a historical low. The L - PP01 spread climbed above 430 yuan/ton, and the PP - 701 spread was at a high level. Overall, PP faced greater supply pressure (high load and new production), while L had more maintenance and stronger support from agricultural film demand. The methanol market was weak, with port inventories reaching a new high under high imports. The methanol price continued to decline, and the MI0 profit improved month - on - month [28]. 3.2 Domestic Production Profit and Supply - **Cost Curve**: The oil - based process has the largest capacity share, with the East China oil - based cost at 7192 yuan/ton. The coal - based process is an important supplement to domestic PE production, with the Inner Mongolia coal - based cost at 5523 yuan/ton. The light - hydrocarbon process has the second - largest share, but lacks a clear cost calculation formula. The MTO process has a relatively small capacity share, and its marginal impact is limited [54][55][56]. - **Production Profit**: This week, oil prices oscillated and then declined after mid - week. The Brent crude oil price fell below 82 US dollars per barrel. The oil - based profit was at a relatively good level in recent years. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was weak, and the profit of ethylene procurement improved. Affected by supply tightening and strengthened winter - storage expectations, the price of thermal coal continued to rise, the CTO profit deteriorated but remained high, and the inland MTO profit was under pressure [57][58]. - **Domestic Capacity and Production**: As of October 2025, the new domestic PE capacity totaled 393 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 10.49%. The planned new capacity in 2025 is 563 million tons, and the capacity growth rate is expected to be 14.91%. This week, the domestic PE output was 67.08 million tons, a decrease of 0.35 million tons compared to the previous week. The operating rate was 82.71%, a decrease of 0.43% compared to the previous week. The maintenance loss was 9.95 million tons, an increase of 1.05 million tons compared to the previous week. New maintenance was added to devices of Wanhua Chemical, Jilin Petrochemical, and Zhongying Petrochemical, and the maintenance devices had not restarted, resulting in a decrease in supply this week [78][79][80]. 3.3 US Dollar Price and Import Profit - **US Dollar Price in the International Market**: The prices in Northwest Europe were at a high level, especially for LD and HD. The US prices declined. The US dollar prices in the Chinese market showed mixed trends, the prices in Southeast Asia decreased slightly with weak demand, and the prices in South Asia remained stable with light trading [96]. - **Domestic and International Price Spread**: The spread between CFR China and the periphery recovered. The import windows for LD and some HD products were open. Recently, the inventory pressure of foreign suppliers has weakened, and the reporting of offers has slowed down [97][107]. 3.4 Downstream Operation and Profit - **Downstream Operation**: The downstream has entered the end of the peak season. The demand for greenhouse films is gradually shrinking, and the operating rate of mulch films has declined from the high level. The operating rate of packaging films increased by 0.3% month - on - month, with some rigid demand remaining. The operating rates of pipes and hollow products increased by 0.3%, while the operating rates of drawing and injection molding decreased by 1% and 0.1% respectively [122]. - **Downstream Profit**: Relevant data showed the profit trends of different types of films such as mulch films and double - protection films, but specific analysis was not provided in the report [123][132]. 3.5 Inventory - This week, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 2.59 million tons to 50.33 million tons, including a reduction of 2.5 million tons in the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies and 0.09 million tons in coal - based inventory. The social inventory decreased by 1.42 million tons to 48.59 million tons. The increase in upstream maintenance and active inventory reduction, combined with the rigid demand consumption of downstream enterprises, led to the reduction of upstream and social inventories [11][150]. 3.6 Position, Trading Volume, and Warehouse Receipts - **Position**: The positions of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts of plastics showed different trends over time [165]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts of plastics also showed different trends over time [167][168][169]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts of L showed a change trend over time [174].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 LLDPE：进口报盘或有减少，裂解负荷有扰动 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2601 | 6770 | -0.95% | 344017 | -3991 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 01合约基差 | 0 | | -35 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -61 | | -48 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 北 华 | 6770 | | 6800 | | | | 东 华 | 6910 | | 6940 | | | | 华 南 | 7050 | | 7050 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【市场状况分析】 原料端原油价格震荡，单体环节利润压缩，PE 盘面低位震荡，近端下游农膜、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent announcements by Daon Co., including the transfer of a subsidiary and the establishment of a new company, highlighting the company's strategic moves in the polymer materials sector and its focus on emerging technologies and markets [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Announcements - Daon Co. announced the transfer of 51% equity in its subsidiary, Daon Wanyi (Hebei) Polymer Materials Co., to Hebei Wanyi Special New Materials Manufacturing Co. for 2.46 million yuan, resulting in Daon no longer holding any shares in Daon Wanyi [2]. - The establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary, Shandong Daon Technology Co., with a registered capital of 10 million yuan, aims to enhance the company's market competitiveness and overall strength [4]. Financial Performance - Daon Wanyi's revenue has stagnated in recent years, with reported figures showing a revenue of 5.18 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025 and a net loss of 36.64 million yuan [4][9]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Daon Co. achieved a revenue of 4.456 billion yuan, marking an 18.23% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 143 million yuan, up 30.11% [9]. Business Development and New Technologies - The company is focusing on new materials and business areas, including breakthroughs in DVA, robotics materials, and TPV [5]. - Daon has made significant progress in high-quality rubber, with TPV products validated for mass production and increased sales of HNBR products [5]. - The company is advancing in the development of high-end composite materials and bio-based materials, including biodegradable polyester materials for medical applications [6][8]. Production Capacity and Expansion - Daon currently has an annual production capacity of 500,000 tons for modified plastics, 90,000 tons for thermoplastic elastomers, and 60,000 tons for copolyester materials [8]. - A new materials expansion project is underway in Shandong Longkou, which includes the construction of a 100,000-ton TPU production line and a 60,000-ton multi-functional polyol project [8]. Industry Trends and Events - The article mentions the upcoming Third Polymer Recycling Conference scheduled for December 11-13, 2025, in Ningbo, focusing on polymer recycling policies, advanced recovery technologies, and sustainable development in the industry [12][63].