Market Overview - In August, the overall market risk appetite improved, with Chinese stocks leading the gains at a return of 7.2% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3800 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high [1] - Daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets significantly increased to 22,796 billion yuan [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations rose, contributing to an increase in gold prices [1] - OPEC+ announced a substantial increase in production, leading to a decline in oil prices by 6.53% [1] Asset Performance - The ranking of asset returns for August is as follows: Chinese stocks > Gold > Global stocks > Global bonds > Agricultural products > Cash > Foreign exchange > Domestic bonds > Real estate > Industrial products > Oil [1] Chinese Stock Market - The Chinese stock market continued to perform well, with major indices rising: the Wind China 500R Index increased by 7.2%, the Wind All A Index rose by 10.9%, and the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index gained 3.3% [10] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 22,796 billion yuan, up from 16,101 billion yuan the previous month, indicating increased market activity [10] - The technology sector, particularly in AI, computing power, and semiconductors, showed strong performance with a monthly increase of 16.3% [11] Global Stock Market - The global stock market saw most indices rise, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets [5] - Vietnam and Brazil led the gains with returns of 12.0% and 8.9%, respectively, while Saudi Arabia and India lagged with returns of -2.9% and -2.2% [5] - Developed markets, particularly Japan, performed well with a return of 5.9%, while Germany and France had returns below 1% [5] Bond Market - The bond market faced pressure in August, with rising yield expectations due to inflation concerns [12] - Convertible bonds led the performance with a yield of 4.32%, while interest rate bonds showed the weakest performance with a decline of 0.44% [12] - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose by 13.35 basis points to 1.84% [12] Commodity Market - Gold prices reached new highs, closing at $3,516.0 per ounce, a 4.9% increase from the previous month [17] - Oil prices declined by 4% to $67 per barrel due to increased supply and weakened demand [17] - In the agricultural sector, soybeans showed the best performance with a 6.4% increase [18] Real Estate Market - The real estate market in first-tier cities continued to show a downward trend, with investment indices declining [20] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 1.6% to 1.786 million square meters [22] - The overall market remains under pressure, indicating that recovery in the industry requires further observation of subsequent data [22] Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell by 2.20% to 97.85, reflecting a weakening trend [24] - The decline in the dollar has put upward pressure on the renminbi exchange rate [24] Cash Market - The money market fund index rose to 1,706.44 points, a slight increase of 0.09% from the previous month [26] - The annualized yield of the Yu'ebao seven-day fund was 1.06%, showing a slight increase [26]

Core Insights - In August 2025, China's foreign exchange market operated smoothly, with a surplus in bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange amounting to $14.6 billion and a net inflow of cross-border funds of $3.2 billion [2][3] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In August 2025, banks settled foreign exchange amounting to 15,103 billion RMB and sold 14,058 billion RMB, resulting in a cumulative settlement of 113,938 billion RMB and a cumulative sale of 113,078 billion RMB from January to August 2025 [1] - The foreign exchange settlement in August 2025 was $2,118 billion, while the sale was $1,971 billion, with cumulative figures from January to August 2025 being $15,886 billion for settlement and $15,765 billion for sale [1] - The foreign exchange market saw active trading, with non-bank sector cross-border receipts reaching $1.3 trillion in August, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [2] Group 2: Cross-Border Fund Flows - In August 2025, the bank's foreign-related income was 45,515 billion RMB, with outflows of 45,284 billion RMB, leading to cumulative foreign-related income of 372,219 billion RMB and outflows of 363,400 billion RMB from January to August 2025 [1] - The foreign-related income in August 2025 was $6,383 billion, while outflows were $6,350 billion, with cumulative figures from January to August 2025 being $51,893 billion for income and $50,665 billion for outflows [1] - The net inflow of cross-border funds in August 2025 was $3.2 billion, with stable net inflows from trade and overall net purchases of domestic stocks and bonds by foreign investors [2]

Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments announced 20 measures to promote the expansion and upgrade of the "15-minute convenient living circle" by 2030, aiming to establish 100 pilot cities and create 10,000 well-structured living circles with a resident satisfaction rate of over 90% and a chain store rate of over 30% [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment reported that China has built the world's largest carbon emissions trading market, covering over 60% of the country's carbon emissions, and has initiated a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, issued a "Light Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" to enhance the role of light industry in economic stability, with a focus on new growth points such as smart home products and sports leisure products [2] - The Ministry of Transport released a plan to build high-quality data sets for the transportation industry by 2030, aiming to improve data supply and support the development of intelligent transportation networks [2] - The Civil Aviation Administration reported that China's civil aviation achieved a total transportation turnover of 151.8 billion ton-kilometers in August, marking a year-on-year increase of 8% [3] Market Updates - The People's Bank of China announced adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations, which will now be conducted with fixed quantity and interest rate bidding [3] - The National Foreign Exchange Administration reported that in August 2025, banks settled 15,103 billion yuan and sold 14,058 billion yuan, with cumulative settlements from January to August reaching 113,938 billion yuan [3] - The China Automobile Industry Association is conducting an anti-discrimination investigation in response to the U.S. measures against China's integrated circuit sector, focusing on the impact on the automotive industry [4] Housing and Automotive Industry - Shanghai has optimized its housing property tax pilot policies, providing tax exemptions for high-level talents and first-time homebuyers under certain conditions [5] - Xiaomi Auto Technology has initiated a recall of 116,887 electric vehicles produced between February 6, 2024, and August 30, 2025, in compliance with regulations [5]

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market in China showed overall balance in supply and demand in August 2025, with a net inflow of $3.2 billion and a surplus of $14.6 billion in bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange [1] - In August, the bank's foreign exchange settlement amounted to $211.8 billion, while foreign exchange sales reached $197.1 billion, continuing the surplus trend [1] - The scale of bank customer foreign exchange receipts and payments reached $1.3 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, indicating sustained high levels of cross-border capital flow [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of funds from merchandise trade remained stable, and foreign investment in domestic stocks and bonds increased [1] - In August, bank customer foreign exchange income was $638.3 billion, while payments were $635 billion, achieving a slight surplus and maintaining a basic balance in receipts and payments [1] - The current foreign exchange market in China is active, with stable market expectations and balanced supply and demand [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a slight recovery, increasing by approximately 0.30% during the Asian session on September 19, breaking a two-day decline [1] - The price of gold reached a historical high of $3707.35 per ounce on September 17, but faced selling pressure following optimistic labor market data, leading to profit-taking and a shift towards the dollar [1][3] - Analysts noted that profit-taking was driven by a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy changes, with expectations of rate cuts tempered by Chairman Powell's comments indicating a cautious approach to rate adjustments [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Despite the initiation of a new easing cycle by the Federal Reserve, gold prices have struggled to find upward momentum, remaining above $3600 per ounce [3] - The market's risk-averse sentiment persists, with expectations of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year limiting the downside for gold [4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is facing resistance around $3670, with support at approximately $3630, suggesting a range-bound trading environment [4] Group 3: Broader Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index has shown signs of recovery following the Federal Reserve's rate cut, which has further pressured gold prices [4] - Positive initial jobless claims data from the U.S. has also contributed to downward pressure on gold [4]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China is operating smoothly, with active trading and a balanced supply and demand situation as of August 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Activity - In August, non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, conducted cross-border receipts and payments totaling $1.3 trillion, representing an 8% year-on-year increase [1] - Both current and capital account cross-border receipts and payments have increased, indicating steady development in cross-border trade and investment [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Balance - In August, there was a net inflow of cross-border funds amounting to $3.2 billion, with a surplus of $14.6 billion in bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange [1] - The net inflow of funds from merchandise trade remained stable, while foreign investment showed a net purchase of domestic stocks and bonds [1] - Service trade and investment income saw a seasonal decline in net outflow [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - Overall, the current foreign exchange market in China is characterized by active trading, a basic balance in supply and demand, and stable market expectations [1]

Group 1: US Dollar Index - The US Dollar Index showed a rebound after hitting a low, with a high of 97.047 and a low of 96.188, closing at 97.003 [1] - The index faced pressure after the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut but surged again following comments from Powell, indicating potential for further increases [1] - Key resistance levels are identified at 97.80 for the weekly and 97.60 for the daily, with support at 96.80-90 for the four-hour timeframe [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a decline, with a high of 3707.3 and a low of 3646.03, closing at 3659.79 [3] - The market showed weakness after breaking the four-hour support at 3674, indicating a bearish trend [3] - Key support levels to watch are 3610-3613 for the daily and 3674 for the four-hour timeframe, with a focus on the price's ability to hold above these levels [4] Group 3: Euro/USD Market - The Euro/USD pair also saw a decline, with a low of 1.1807 and a high of 1.1918, closing at 1.1811 [6] - The market remains under pressure following the Federal Reserve's decisions, with key support at 1.1730 for the daily timeframe [6] - Resistance levels are noted at 1.1830-40 for the four-hour timeframe, with a focus on potential pullbacks to the daily support [6] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Events - Key economic data and events to watch include Switzerland's trade balance, the UK central bank's interest rate decision, and US jobless claims [8] - Other important indicators include the Eurozone's current account and the US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index [8]

Report Information - Report Title: "Large Class Asset Morning Report" - Report Date: September 17, 2025 - Author: Macro Team of the Research Center [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, etc. were 4.029, 4.638, 3.488 respectively. There were various changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US was -0.010, and the yearly change was 0.319 [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, etc. were 3.560, 3.960, 2.000 respectively. There were also different changes in different time - spans [3]. Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - Exchange Rates and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.297, and there were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For instance, the latest change was -0.37%, and the yearly change was -5.40% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - Index Values and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the S&P 500 was 6606.760, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 45757.900, etc. There were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the S&P 500 was -0.13%, and the yearly change was 22.16% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - Index Changes: The latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes of credit bond indices such as the US investment - grade credit bond index, the euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were presented. For example, the latest change in the US investment - grade credit bond index was 0.04%, and the yearly change was 4.72% [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing Prices and Changes: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3861.87, 4523.34, 2947.82 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [4]. Valuation - PE Ratios and Changes: The PE (TTM) ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, and others were 14.09, 11.80, 34.32 respectively, with环比 changes [4]. Risk Premium - Risk Premium and Changes: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 and German DAX were -0.39 and 2.50 respectively, with环比 changes [4]. Fund Flows - Fund Flow Values: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, etc. were provided. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was -305.93 [4]. Trading Volumes - Trading Volumes and Changes: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 23414.02, 6137.28, etc., with环比 changes [4]. Main Contract Basis and Premium/Discount - Basis and Premium/Discount: The basis and percentage of premium/discount of IF, IH, IC were given. For example, the basis of IF was -6.54, and the percentage was -0.14% [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices and Changes - Closing Prices and Percentage Changes: The closing prices of Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.000, 105.795, 107.680, 105.680 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5]. Fund Interest Rates - Interest Rates and Daily Changes: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M interest rates were 1.4778%, 1.4998%, 1.5530% respectively, with daily changes in basis points [5]

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 3651.10, 42.26, 1399.00, 1218.00, 63.30, and 10119.50 respectively, with changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, and 38.00 [2] - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 97.36, 1.18, 1.36, 147.42, and 1.68 respectively, with changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00 [2] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest inventories of COMEX Silver, SHFE Silver, and SGE Silver are 16411.68, 1231.26, and 1283.61 respectively, with changes of 0.00, - 12.22, and 0.00 [3] - The latest holdings of Gold ETF and Silver ETF are 976.81 and 15059.74 respectively, with changes of 0.00 and 0.00 [3] - The latest deferred - fee payment directions of SGE Silver and SGE Gold are 2 and 1 respectively, with changes of 1.00 and 0.00 [3]

Group 1: Dollar Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut cycle in September, which typically puts downward pressure on the dollar[4] - The dollar index has completed a significant correction, with the market pricing in the Fed's policy path adequately[6] - The dollar's strength is increasingly influenced by the relative performance of other major currencies rather than solely by the U.S. economy[6] Group 2: Eurozone and Pound Sterling Challenges - Eurozone economic data, such as the August composite PMI at 51, indicates insufficient growth momentum, limiting the euro's upward potential[6][7] - The UK faces fiscal policy uncertainty, with the Chancellor's budget announcement set for November 26, leading to market speculation and pressure on the pound[7] - The relative weakness of other currencies, including the euro and pound, supports the dollar's stability even in a loosening cycle[7] Group 3: Renminbi Stability - The renminbi index has shown a high correlation with the dollar index over the past two years, maintaining relative stability during dollar corrections[9][11] - China's economic policy is shifting towards growth stabilization and structural optimization, contributing to the renminbi's resilience[11] - The renminbi is positioned to act as a stabilizing anchor in the Asian currency system amid global currency fluctuations[11]