Group 1: Fresh Milk Market Price War - The fresh milk market price war is intensifying, with various promotions observed in supermarkets and online platforms [1][2] - Specific examples include discounts and buy-one-get-one-free offers from major brands like Yili, Junlebao, and Mengniu [1][2] Group 2: Sales Pressure on Dairy Companies - Major dairy companies are experiencing significant sales pressure, with Yili's liquid milk revenue dropping to 75 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 12.32% [3] - Mengniu's liquid milk revenue for 2024 was 73.07 billion RMB, down 10.6% year-on-year [4] - Other companies like Guangming and Sanyuan also reported declines in liquid milk revenue, indicating a broader trend in the industry [4] Group 3: Overall Dairy Market Challenges - The entire dairy market is facing demand contraction, with a 2.7% year-on-year decline in total dairy sales in 2024 [5] - Companies are producing large quantities of industrial milk powder to cope with excess raw milk, leading to significant inventory issues and losses of 10,000 to 20,000 RMB per ton sold [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The price war in the fresh milk market shows no signs of abating, as companies continue to struggle with sales and profitability [6]

2025 年 05 月 13 日 证券研究报告 | 金融工程周报 分析师：柏逸凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524100001 电话：021-20321081 邮箱：baiyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 向 — 市 场 环 境 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 （2025.04.30）》2025-05-07 2、《关税问题反复，大盘延续稳健—市场 中 观 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 （ 2025.04.27 ）》 2025-04-29 3、《市场进入降波阶段，风格稳定性上升 —量化数据看板跟踪周报（2025.04.20）》 2025-04-23 关税下调之后，市场分歧仍存 市场环境因子跟踪周报（2025.05.09） 风 险 特 征 解 析 — 量 化 策 略 视 点 》 2024-12-17 投资要点 报告统计时间为 2025.05.05-2025.05.09。 分析师：程秉哲 静观其变，谋而后动。关税下调之后，可适度控制仓位，静观其变， ...

2025 年 05 月 11 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 关税窗口期应如何博弈？ 策略周报 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 分析师：郝一凡 【债市方面】新低后宜适度止盈。央行本周降息 10BP，降息幅度相对有 限，后续预计为应对关税影响，未来仍有降息空间。整体来看，在增量政策出 台前，利率仍有下行创新低的可能，新低或是止盈机会（十年期国债收益率止 盈区间 1.50-1.55%）。债市收益率有望破新低，观点相对乐观，可继续优先配 置受益于陡峭的收益率曲线和边际宽松的资金面的短端利率债。 销售服务电话： 相关研究报告 【股市方面】静观其变，谋而后动。一方面，海外关税进入博弈、谈判阶 段，或仍有反复，且难以修复到特朗普上台前水平。另一方面，关税对经济冲 击有待观察。待经济冲击加大或 7 月份，增量政策有望落地。可适度控制仓 位，静观其变，建议关注红利 ...

登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 分析师： 蔡梦苑 | | 关税缓和信号显现,但行业关税仍存变数: | | --- | --- | | | > 美国一季度GDP萎缩，后续走势取决于关税谈判及减税政策进展 | | | ◆ 今年第一季度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算奏缩至-0.3%,主要受到抢进口和政府投资减少的抱累。后续美国经济走势 | | | 取决于关税谈判的进展(商品消费),以及减税政策的支持(私人投资)。 | | 海外宏观 | > 对等关税税率后续有望下调，行业关税仍存变数 | | | ◆ 基于财政收益最大化及后续行业关税实施空间的考量,对等关税存在下调预期。预计最终调整方向或与特朗普竞选大致医配一 | | | 即全球基准税率降至10%,中国维持约60%高位。 | | | ◆ 对华关税政策方面,特朗普表示"对中国达成协议的前景泵现得更加乐观"。然而潜在的行业关税(特别是医药、关键矿产及半 | | | 导体等敏感行业)关税仍存变致,伴随着协议谈判进程,市场波动或将延续。政策不确定性 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Baolingbao has demonstrated resilience in the face of challenges, particularly benefiting from the EU's anti-dumping tax on erythritol, leading to increased sales and revenue in Europe [1] - In Q1 2025, Baolingbao's erythritol sales revenue grew approximately 123% year-on-year due to the lowest anti-dumping tax rate of 34.4% applied to its products [1] - The company's overall revenue in 2024 decreased by 4.84% to 2.402 billion yuan, primarily due to a strategic reduction in low-value feed and by-product businesses [2] Group 2 - Baolingbao's net profit for 2024 reached 1.11 yuan per share, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 105.97% [3] - The profit growth was driven by product structure adjustments, with prebiotics revenue increasing by 16.02% to 335 million yuan and dietary fiber revenue rising by 14.52% to 238 million yuan [4] - The revenue from sugar-reducing sweeteners surged by 29.73% to 516 million yuan, with a notable 41.66% increase in sales volume [4] Group 3 - The case of Baolingbao illustrates the systemic advantages of Chinese manufacturing, highlighting competitive strengths in various sectors [5] - As of May 6, Baolingbao's stock price was 9.34 yuan per share, reflecting a 1.30% increase [6] - In contrast, the Shanghai Consumer 80 Index reported a decline of 0.46% on the same day [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that BERSHIHE, a domestic outdoor products company, is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showcasing significant growth in revenue and profit [2][3]. - BERSHIHE's revenue from 2022 to 2024 is projected to grow from 379 million yuan to 1.766 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 241.27% for net profit [3]. - The company's main products are outdoor clothing, particularly jackets, with revenue from clothing products expected to increase from 305 million yuan in 2022 to 1.608 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 129.5% [3]. Group 2 - BERSHIHE has capitalized on channel advantages, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) online sales growing from 331 million yuan to 1.351 billion yuan, achieving a CAGR of 102% [5]. - The founder of BERSHIHE, Liu Zhen, highlighted the importance of content marketing through platforms like Douyin, Xiaohongshu, and Bilibili, which has significantly reduced customer acquisition costs [5]. - BERSHIHE's product-centric approach includes offering a lifetime warranty, contributing to a repurchase rate of over 20% [5]. Group 3 - The overall analysis indicates that China's complete industrial chain and channel advantages are shaping new brand possibilities, contrasting with the operational pressures faced by established brands like Nike [6][7].

Group 1: Beverage Market Dynamics - The beverage market is undergoing intense adjustments, with Danone reporting a 9.9% year-on-year sales growth in its China, North Asia, and Oceania region, reaching €936 million (approximately RMB 7.776 billion) in Q1 2025 [1] - Danone's water and beverage segment in the CNAO region saw a 10.2% increase in sales to €176 million (approximately RMB 1.462 billion), with the majority of revenue coming from the "Pulse" brand [1] - Eastroc Beverage's electrolyte water product "Bushi La" experienced a remarkable 261.5% year-on-year sales growth, reaching RMB 570 million in Q1 2025, with an annual target of RMB 3 billion [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The packaged water market, a key segment for major players, is contracting, with Nongfu Spring reporting a 21.3% decline in revenue to RMB 15.95 billion in 2024, reducing its market share from 47.5% in 2023 to 37.2% [3] - China Resources Beverage's revenue from packaged water also fell by 2.6% to RMB 12.124 billion in 2024, with a significant decline of approximately 8.7% in the second half of the year [3] - Other beverage categories are helping to offset losses, with Nongfu Spring's tea beverage revenue increasing by 32.3% to RMB 16.75 billion, now accounting for 39.0% of total revenue [4] Group 3: Strategic Shifts - Beverage giants are increasingly focusing on multi-category development in response to market changes [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple companies in the internet and education sector, including Tencent, Alibaba, Pinduoduo, Meituan, JD, NetEase, Ctrip, Baidu, Kuaishou, and others [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that companies with rapid business adjustments and improved commercialization capabilities have shown strong revenue growth, while larger companies have maintained their leading positions despite a slowdown in growth [5][6]. - In 2025, companies are expected to enhance their monetization capabilities and explore overseas expansion to drive revenue growth, with a focus on new business initiatives and long-term strategic planning [3][5]. - The OTA industry is projected to grow approximately 10% driven by international business, while the e-commerce sector benefits from consumption stimulus policies and low base effects [3][5]. - Local lifestyle services are expected to see revenue growth between 15-20%, supported by platform monetization and operational improvements [3]. - The gaming industry is anticipated to grow by 10% in 2025, driven by new game launches and effective operations [3]. - Cloud services remain a key area of focus, with significant potential driven by demand for computing power and AI applications [3]. - The entertainment sector is expected to maintain steady growth in music subscription revenue, while long video platforms may see effects from short drama layouts [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Companies with high revenue growth (20%-60%) are primarily those undergoing strategic expansion and business adjustments, such as education training, OTA, Pinduoduo, Meituan, and others [5]. - Companies with moderate revenue growth (10-19%) face some business pressures but have other segments performing well, such as New Oriental and Bilibili [6]. - Companies with low revenue growth (0-9%) still outpace GDP growth, with Tencent showing continuous improvement in monetization [6]. Profit Growth - Profit growth for most internet companies is driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with leading companies benefiting from high-margin business growth [10]. - The report indicates that companies are focusing on optimizing their business structures to enhance profitability [10]. R&D and Capital Expenditure - R&D expenses are increasing due to heightened investments in AI, while some reductions are attributed to the scaling back of non-strategic projects [14]. - Capital expenditures for major companies like Tencent and Alibaba are projected to increase significantly, with a large portion allocated to AI-related initiatives [17]. Shareholder Returns - The report outlines various companies' shareholder return strategies, with many focusing on share buybacks and stable dividend payouts [18]. - Companies like Alibaba and JD have substantial buyback plans, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [18]. Institutional Holdings - The report notes changes in institutional holdings, with several companies seeing increased ownership percentages, particularly in AI-related sectors [19][21]. - The report highlights the top companies with increased institutional holdings, indicating a positive outlook from investors [20].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Yingpais (002899) based on its potential growth in fitness equipment and AI sports glasses [2][32]. Core Insights - Yingpais focuses on the research, manufacturing, and sales of a full range of fitness equipment, achieving a revenue of 896 million yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, a 36% year-on-year increase [2][32]. - The global fitness equipment market is expected to grow at rates of 3.8%, 3.6%, and 4.2% from 2023 to 2025, with China being a significant market [32]. - The company is expanding its ODM business and has a strong barrier to entry in the export market, with new production capacity supporting growth [32][33]. - The smart sports glasses market is identified as a blue ocean opportunity, with the company collaborating with leading brands to develop products for cycling and fitness [2][34]. Summary by Sections Yingpais Overview - Yingpais is a leader in the domestic fitness industry, focusing on mid-to-high-end products and successfully entering international markets through OEM/ODM partnerships [2][32]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yingpais is projected to achieve net profits of 120 million, 160 million, and 200 million yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 31X, 24X, and 19X [2][32]. Market Trends - The report highlights the increasing demand for fitness equipment globally, with significant growth in the Chinese market, which reached 26.86 billion yuan in 2022 [32]. Strategic Initiatives - Yingpais is actively pursuing opportunities in the smart sports glasses sector, aiming to leverage AI advancements to enhance product offerings and capture new market segments [2][34].