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瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20260331
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 10:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - A股 major indices closed down collectively, with small and medium - cap stocks weaker than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded slightly. Most industry sectors declined, with the coal and power equipment sectors weakening significantly and the household appliances sector leading the rise. Overseas, Trump's statement on ending the war caused an initial drop in oil prices, but the decline narrowed later. A - shares moved in the opposite direction to oil prices. In March 2026, after the Spring Festival, manufacturing PMI reached a one - year high. Among the four broad - based indices of listed companies that have disclosed 2025 annual reports, CSI 300 and SSE 50 showed accelerating revenue growth and slightly declining net profit growth, while CSI 500 and CSI 1000 had accelerating revenue and net profit growth. Overall, the three PMI indices returned to the expansion range in March, and the economic fundamentals are expected to continue to recover. However, due to the uncertainty of overseas geopolitical situations, caution is still needed [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: IF (2606) latest price is 4375.8, down 34.0; IH (2606) is 2804.0, down 9.2; IC (2606) is 7425.0, down 130.8; IM (2606) is 7379.4, down 126.6. IF (2604) is 4433.8, down 33.0; IH (2604) is 2824.4, down 5.4; IC (2604) is 7575.6, down 129.4; IM (2604) is 7573.6, down 118.4 [2]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1609.4, down 34.0; IC - IF spread is 3141.8, down 92.6; IM - IC spread is - 2.0, up 9.0; IC - IH spread is 4751.2, down 126.6; IM - IF spread is 3139.8, down 83.6; IM - IH spread is 4749.2, down 117.6 [2]. - **Quarter - to - Current Month Spreads**: IF quarter - current month is - 58.0, up 0.4; IF next quarter - current month is - 140.4, up 1.8; IH quarter - current month is - 20.4, down 3.8; IH next quarter - current month is - 60.2, down 2.0; IC quarter - current month is - 150.6, down 4.4; IC next quarter - current month is - 320.2, down 0.6; IM quarter - current month is - 194.2, down 7.8; IM next quarter - current month is - 413.6, down 0.4 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: IF top 20 net positions are 24,653.00, up 1907.0; IH top 20 net positions are 18,790.00, down 1316.0; IC top 20 net positions are 29,687.00, up 385.0; IM top 20 net positions are 47,138.00, up 1533.0 [2]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: CSI 300 is 4450.05, down 41.9, IF basis is - 74.3, up 3.7; SSE 50 is 2826.1, down 7.1, IH basis is - 22.1, down 1.3; CSI 500 is 7617.3, down 136.4, IC basis is - 192.3, up 0.8; CSI 1000 is 7619.9, down 148.1, IM basis is - 240.5, up 18.1 [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 20,059.05 billion yuan, up 783.57 billion yuan; margin trading balance is 26,169.14 billion yuan, up 80.69 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume is 2462.66 billion yuan, up 16.98 billion yuan; reverse repurchase operation is + 325.0 billion yuan, maturity is - 175.0 billion yuan; main funds flow is - 835.29 billion yuan; the proportion of rising stocks is 18.37%, down 33.83%; Shibor is 1.277%, down 0.041%; IO at - the - money call option closing price (2604) is 64.80, down 19.80; implied volatility is 18.04%, up 0.69; IO at - the - money put option closing price (2604) is 76.20, up 16.40; implied volatility is 17.61%, up 0.26; CSI 300 20 - day volatility is 18.12%, down 0.43; volume PCR is 82.10%, down 9.73; position PCR is 66.27%, up 0.47 [2]. Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score is 2.80, down 2.60; technical aspect score is 1.80, down 3.40; capital aspect score is 3.80, down 1.70 [2]. Industry News - Trump said Iran agreed to "most of the content" in the "15 - point ceasefire plan", and the US is in serious consultations with Iran. Trump threatened to destroy Iranian power plants, oil wells, etc. if no agreement is reached soon. Iran said it would cause a power outage in the region if power facilities are attacked, and has not directly negotiated with the US, considering the "15 - point plan" unreasonable and will not participate in the Pakistan - led war - related meeting [2]. - Trump told his assistants he is willing to end the military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed [2]. - In March, manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI output index all returned to the expansion range, at 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5% respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month [2]. Key Data to Focus On - March 31, 22:00, US February JOLTs job openings - April 1, 20:30, US February retail sales, core retail sales; 22:00, US March ISM manufacturing PMI - April 2, 19:30, US March Challenger job - cut numbers - April 3, 20:30, US March non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate [3]
山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260331
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 10:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak rebound. The main contract of Shanghai Gold rose 1.46%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver rose 3.41%, the main contract of platinum rose 0.16%, and the main contract of palladium rose 0.89% [1]. - In the short - term, regarding the risk of safe - haven, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain deadlocked; the US employment is strong, inflationary pressure persists, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump issued a new warning; Iran said the US peace proposal was "unrealistic". The Houthi armed forces "joined the war", more US troops arrived in the Middle East, the risk of the Iran war expanding increased, and the Middle East crisis may become long - term [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, Powell said that the Fed could "wait and see" how the war affects inflation and there was no need to take action for the time being. The US import prices in February had the largest increase in four years, suggesting that future inflation may accelerate. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged this month, stating that the Iran war made the policy outlook highly uncertain, expecting inflation to rise, the unemployment rate to remain stable, and to cut interest rates once this year. The probability of interest rate hikes reversed, and the bet on interest rate cuts was postponed to 2027. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields were under pressure at high levels [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index fluctuated weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Gold - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract was $4540.40 per ounce, up 0.42% from the previous day and 2.95% from the previous week. The London gold price was $4529.15 per ounce, up 0.56% from the previous day and 1.41% from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1020.10 yuan per gram, up 0.51% from the previous day and 4.11% from the previous week. The closing price of the Gold T + D was 1015.68 yuan per gram, up 0.67% from the previous day and 3.85% from the previous week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of Comex gold was 403,925 lots, down 2.42% from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 180,433 lots, down 0.29% from the previous day but up 12.83% from the previous week. The position of Gold TD was 45,964 lots, down 2.40% from the previous day and 2.91% from the previous week. The LBMA inventory was 9,210 tons, up 0.56% from the previous week. The Comex gold inventory was 1,000 tons, down 1.58% from the previous week. The Shanghai Gold inventory was 107 tons, up 1.82% from the previous day and 1.35% from the previous week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 long - position holders in the Shanghai Gold futures of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are led by Guotai Junan, and the top 10 short - position holders are led by Yunchang Futures [3]. 3.2 Silver - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract was $70.18 per ounce, up 0.59% from the previous day and 1.24% from the previous week. The London silver price was $70.75 per ounce, up 4.36% from the previous day and 5.24% from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 18,126 yuan per kilogram, up 2.37% from the previous day and 6.09% from the previous week. The closing price of the Silver T + D was 18,031 yuan per kilogram, up 2.68% from the previous day and 5.04% from the previous week [4]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of Comex silver was 113,164 lots, down 1.39% from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 3,615,825 lots, up 3.07% from the previous day and 13.90% from the previous week. The position of Silver TD was 2,818,488 lots, down 0.76% from the previous day and 3.21% from the previous week. The LBMA inventory was 27,065 tons, down 2.39% from the previous week. The Comex silver inventory was 10,188 tons, down 1.36% from the previous week. The Shanghai Silver inventory was 369 tons, up 0.75% from the previous week. The total visible inventory was 37,916 tons, down 0.37% from the previous week [4]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 long - position holders in the Shanghai Silver futures of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are led by Guotou Futures, and the top 10 short - position holders are led by Chezheng Futures [5]. 3.3 Platinum - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract was $2,113.20 per ounce, up 4.38% from the previous day but down 3.47% from the previous week. The London platinum price was $2,118.00 per ounce, up 1.97% from the previous day but down 0.66% from the previous week. The closing price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 552.70 yuan per gram, up 3.73% from the previous day but down 1.75% from the previous week. The closing price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 548.93 yuan per gram, up 3.84% from the previous day but down 1.82% from the previous week [7]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract was 34,868 lots, down 6.76% from the previous day and 5.91% from the previous week. The total NYMEX platinum inventory was 19 tons, unchanged from the previous week [7]. 3.4 Palladium - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [8]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract was $1,620.50 per ounce, up 3.81% from the previous day but down 5.37% from the previous week. The London palladium price was $1,601.00 per ounce, down 3.04% from the previous day and 2.97% from the previous week. The closing price of the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 407.75 yuan per gram, up 2.31% from the previous day but down 3.73% from the previous week [8]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract was 14,847 lots, up 0.89% from the previous day and 0.53% from the previous week. The total NYMEX palladium inventory was 8 tons, up 22.15% from the previous day and 19.79% from the previous week [8]. 3.5 Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **Monetary Attributes**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 3.75%, the discount rate was 3.75%, the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) was 3.65%, and the Fed's total assets were $6,708.36 billion. M2 increased by 4.88% year - on - year. The ten - year US Treasury real yield was 2.64%, the US dollar index was 100.51, and the US Treasury yield spreads and interest rate differentials between the US and other countries showed certain changes [9]. - **US Inflation**: The year - on - year CPI was 2.40%, the month - on - month CPI was 0.50%, the year - on - year core CPI was 2.50%, the month - on - month core CPI was 0.40%, the year - on - year PCE price index was 2.83%, the year - on - year core PCE price index was 3.06%, the one - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan was 3.80%, and the five - year inflation expectation was 3.20% [9]. - **US Economic Growth**: The annualized year - on - year GDP growth rate was 2.10%, the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate was 0.70%, the unemployment rate was 4.40%, the monthly change in non - farm payrolls was - 92,000, the labor participation rate was 61.90%, the average hourly wage growth rate was 3.80%, and other labor market and economic indicators showed corresponding changes [9]. - **US Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index was 38.00, existing home sales were 4.09 million units, new home sales were 480,000 units, and new home starts were 1.043 million units [9]. - **US Consumption and Industry**: Retail sales increased by 2.08% year - on - year and 0.03% month - on - month, personal consumption expenditure increased by 5.25% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month, the personal savings rate was 4.50%, the industrial production index increased by 1.44% year - on - year and 0.15% month - on - month, and other consumption and industrial indicators showed corresponding changes [11]. - **US Trade**: Exports increased by 9.68% year - on - year but decreased by 17.23% month - on - month, imports decreased by 26.33% year - on - year but increased by 2.30% month - on - month, and the trade deficit was - $54.5 billion [11]. - **US Economic Surveys**: The ISM manufacturing PMI index was 52.40, the ISM services PMI index was 56.10, the Markit manufacturing PMI index was 52.40, the Markit services PMI index was 51.10, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index was 53.30, the small business optimism index was 98.80, and the US investor confidence index was 7.20 [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's gold reserves were 2,308.50 tons, the US's were 8,133.46 tons, and the world's total was 36,458.24 tons [11]. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The US dollar accounted for 56.32% of foreign exchange reserves, the euro accounted for 21.13%, and the RMB accounted for 2.12% [11]. - **Gold to Foreign Exchange Reserves Ratio**: China's ratio was 8.34%, and the US's was 81.98% [11]. - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index was 181.40, the VIX index was 30.61, the CRB commodity index was 371.29, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9215 [11]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from April 29, 2026, to December 8, 2027, is provided, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate decisions [13].
光大期货金融期货日报-20260331
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 10:24
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index**: The market rebounded after hitting bottom throughout the day, with the three major indices showing mixed performance. There were more rising stocks than falling ones, with over 2,800 stocks rising in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets, and the trading volume was 1.93 trillion yuan. The conflict between the US and Iran and the Fed's interest - rate decision affected the capital market, increasing risk - aversion sentiment. In the medium term, if global technology stocks are affected by liquidity, the previously strong technology sectors in the A - share market may experience a valuation decline [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The current macro - economy is in a stage of steady recovery, structural optimization, and moderate inflation, which is bearish for the bond market. In the short term, it is mainly in a volatile and bearish state, with long - term interest rates under more pressure, while short - term rates are relatively stable due to the support of the capital market [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Stock Index**: The market showed a bottom - up trend, and the three major indices had different performances. The US - Iran conflict and the Fed's stance led to increased risk - aversion in the capital market. The A - share technology sector may face valuation adjustments in the medium term. The view is that the market will be volatile [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures closed with gains across different maturities. The central bank conducted reverse repurchases, resulting in a net capital injection. The current economic situation is bearish for the bond market, with short - term volatility and long - term pressure on interest rates. The view is that the market will be volatile [1][2]. 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH decreased by 0.07%, IF decreased by 0.30%, IC increased by 0.02%, and IM decreased by 0.19%. The Shanghai Composite Index 50 decreased by 0.14%, and the CSI 300 decreased by 0.24%. The CSI 500 increased by 0.21%, and the CSI 1000 increased by 0.28% [3]. - **Treasury Futures**: TS increased by 0.03%, TF increased by 0.08%, T increased by 0.14%, and TL increased by 0.39%. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased [3]. 3. Market News - **Overall Trend**: The market rebounded after hitting bottom, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.68%. Over 2,800 stocks rose, and the trading volume was 1.93 trillion yuan [4]. - **Industry Sectors**: Sectors such as non - ferrous aluminum, agriculture, innovative drugs, and commercial aerospace led the gains, while sectors such as power, photovoltaic equipment, oil and gas, and insurance led the losses [4]. - **Hot Concepts**: Non - ferrous aluminum, commercial aerospace, and innovative drug concepts were strong, while power stocks adjusted downward [4]. 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Stock Index Futures - Provided charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures contracts [6][7][8][9][10]. 4.2 Treasury Futures - Provided charts of the trends, basis, inter - temporal spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury futures contracts [13][14][15][16][17][19]. 4.3 Exchange Rates - Provided charts of the exchange rates of US dollars, euros, pounds, and yen against the Chinese yuan, including spot and forward exchange rates [22][23][25][27][28].
瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20260331
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 10:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stainless steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at MA60 and the upper limit of 14,500 yuan. The upstream raw material supply is expected to shrink, the production of stainless steel mills may face pressure, the downstream demand is gradually turning to the peak season, but the demand in the traditional "Golden March" peak season is slightly insufficient, and the long - position sentiment has weakened [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 14,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread is 55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 27 lots, an increase of 3,429 lots; the main contract position is 97,783 lots, a decrease of 8,530 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 45,736 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge in Wuxi is 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of stainless steel is 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,308.15 tons, a decrease of 5,231.79 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 831,700 tons, a decrease of 78,200 tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 136,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,100 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.3194 million tons, a decrease of 538,700 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 626,500 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons; the monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area increased by 5,083.9 square meters, a decrease of 53,686.06 square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 37,300 units, an increase of 3,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, an increase of 9,500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce measures to optimize the duty - free shopping 2.0 version, promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, and promote the development of the automotive after - market and leisure consumption such as cruise yachts and RV camping. The import of automobiles from January to February 2026 increased by 25% year - on - year, but the import in February decreased by 12% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month. The Ministry of Commerce will implement a special consumption promotion campaign. The Federal Reserve Chair Powell said the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged but may act if inflation expectations change. The supply of nickel ore is expected to shrink due to the rainy season in the Philippines and the reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia [2]
瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20260331
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 10:02
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively resilient, but the international situation is volatile with many uncertainties. With signs of easing in the US-Iran situation, commodity prices have generally declined. It is recommended to conduct short-term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan; the trading volume of the HC main contract was 773,076 lots, a decrease of 73,740 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was -29,127 lots, an increase of 18,558 lots; the HC5-10 contract spread was -16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt report was 549,618 tons, unchanged; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 173 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou, it was 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan, it was 3,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 16 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan; the price difference between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 7 yuan; the market price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (excluding tax) was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 169.9684 million tons, a decrease of 1.0583 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 497,600 tons, a decrease of 25,900 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.9173 million tons, an increase of 39,500 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 2.3994 million tons, a decrease of 95,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.05%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 86.65%, an increase of 1.10 percentage points; the weekly output of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.0561 million tons, an increase of 54,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 78.07%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points; the inventory of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 838,500 tons, a decrease of 11,100 tons; the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.6942 million tons, a decrease of 69,100 tons; the monthly output of crude steel in China was 68.18 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 7.47 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 1.6724 million vehicles, a decrease of 777,400 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 1.8052 million vehicles, a decrease of 541,300 vehicles; the monthly output of air conditioners was 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.0115 million units, an increase of 569,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.975 million units, a decrease of 38,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Three Chinese ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz recently, and China called for a ceasefire and the restoration of peace and stability in the Gulf region. In March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity [2]
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20260331
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 10:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2605 contract weakened with a reduction in positions. The Fed Chair's statement eased market concerns about interest rate hikes, and traders considered the possibility of rate cuts this year. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the arrivals increased. The blast furnace operating rate and hot metal output of steel mills continued to rise, port inventories declined, and the expected increase in demand will drive further inventory reduction. However, due to Trump's statement, oil prices fell, leading to a general decline in commodities. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows a downward adjustment of DIFF and DEA. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 808.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the position volume was 353,624 hands, down 17,797 hands. The I 5 - 9 contract spread was 21.5 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was 784 hands, up 6,329 hands. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 0.00 hands, down 2,700.00 hands. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 105.45 US dollars/ton at 15:00, down 0.78 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore was 828 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 742 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 20 yuan, up 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 108.50 US dollars/ton, up 0.40 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.16, down 0.04. The estimated import cost was 863 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 2,472.40 tons, down 671.90 tons; the arrivals at 47 ports in China (weekly) were 2,626.70 tons, up 243.60 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 17,666.83 tons, down 147.35 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 8,978.56 tons, down 55.50 tons. The iron ore imports (monthly) were 9,764.00 tons, down 1,475.00 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 25.00 days, up 6 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 40.16 tons, down 0.69 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.62%, down 0.67%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 61.95 tons, down 1.18 tons. The BDI index was 2,017.00, down 14.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 30.21 US dollars/ton, down 0.28 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.98 US dollars/ton, down 0.01 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 81.05%, up 1.25%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 86.65%, up 1.10%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 6,818 tons, down 169 tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.67%, up 0.29%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.93%, down 0.28%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 19.32%, down 2.63%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 19.74%, down 2.34% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the global iron ore shipments were 2,472.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 671.9 tons. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 1,875.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 684.3 tons. Australian shipments were 1,033.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 961.9 tons, and the shipments from Australia to China were 839.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 795.6 tons. Brazilian shipments were 841.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 277.6 tons. From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,626.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 243.6 tons; the arrivals at 45 ports in China were 2,426.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 154.7 tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 1,198.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 147.7 tons [2]
瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260331
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 10:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Trump signaled a缓和 of the US - Iran situation, leading to a short - term pull - up and then a sharp decline in precious metals. Powell said the Fed would "ignore" the short - term energy shock, reducing bets on interest rate hikes this year. Fed's Milan released dovish signals, and the weakening of US short - term Treasury yields supported gold and silver prices. Geopolitical factors restricted the rebound of precious metals. In the future, if the geopolitical conflict persists and supports high oil prices, the precious metals' rebound space may be suppressed. However, if the US economic slowdown is verified and the upcoming non - farm data is weak while CPI inflation rises significantly, gold prices may benefit from stagflation risks. In the long - term, central bank gold purchases and the weakening of the US dollar credit still exist, so the strategy is to be short - term cautious and long - term bullish [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1020.10 yuan/gram, up 5.2 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 18126 yuan/kilogram, up 419 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold decreased by 520 hands to 180,433 hands, and those of Shanghai Silver decreased by 8724 hands to 17,199 hands. The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract decreased by 58160 to 335,355, and that of Shanghai Silver decreased by 178429 to 881,875. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged at 106644 kilograms, and that of Shanghai Silver decreased by 5760 to 368,667 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1018.90 yuan, up 10.15 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 18,308 yuan, up 1003 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 1.20 yuan/gram, up 4.93 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 182 yuan/gram, up 584 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.43 tons to 1046.13 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 121.10 tons to 15,288.36 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC increased by 8458 to 168327, and those of silver increased by 2792 to 24,673. The quarterly total supply of gold decreased by 0.19 tons to 1302.80 tons, and the annual total supply of silver increased by 482 tons to 32,056 tons. The quarterly total demand for gold increased by 79.57 tons to 1345.32 tons, and the annual total demand for silver decreased by 491 tons to 35,716 tons [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 100.51, up 0.32; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.04, down 0.09. The VIX volatility index was 30.61, down 0.44; the CBOE gold volatility index was 42.71, down 2.80. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.40, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 64.02, down 2.42 [2] 3.5 Industry News - Trump said he was willing to end the military action against Iran, and Iran agreed to most of the "15 - point cease - fire plan". Powell said the Fed would maintain the interest rate and "ignore" the short - term energy shock. Williams thought the current interest rate was in a favorable position, while Milan called for a 100 - basis - point interest rate cut this year. The Bank of Japan's governor said that if the interest rate hike was delayed, long - term interest rates might rise rapidly, and short - term consumer prices might be more volatile [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - March 31, 22:00, US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; March 31, 21:00, US January S&P House Price Index; April 1, 20:15, US March ADP Employment; April 1, 22:00, US March ISM Manufacturing PMI; April 2, 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28; April 2, 20:30, US February Trade Balance; April 3, 20:30, US March Non - farm Payrolls [2]
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20260331
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 09:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints Corn - The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has kept international oil prices oscillating at high levels, pushing up freight rates and boosting international corn market prices. The increase in import prices is also beneficial to the domestic market. In the domestic market, as the temperature rises in the Northeast production area and farmers need to sell grain for cash for spring plowing, the grain - selling progress has accelerated. The procurement by the China National Grains and Oils Reserves Administration will end in April, and recent procurement has been concluded at a discounted price. The proportion of substitutes such as wheat has increased, and feed and deep - processing enterprises are cautious in purchasing. As a result, the spot price has shown a slight decline. There are also rumors that a targeted paddy auction may be launched in April or late April, which, if implemented, will impact corn's feed demand to some extent. Recently, corn futures prices have oscillated and declined at a high level, and short - term participation is recommended [2] Corn Starch - Recently, the supply of raw - material corn has increased compared to the previous period, and the enthusiasm of corn starch enterprises to start production has risen. The industry's operating rate has increased month - on - month, and the pressure on the supply side has increased. The industry's inventory pressure has also slightly rebounded. However, supported by high raw - material corn prices, the starch spot market performs well. After a previous rise, the starch market has declined from a high level recently [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2351 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2745 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. Corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 29 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (5 - 7) is 4 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 1023011 lots, down 29630 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 235927 lots, down 9716 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 84497 lots, up 30089 lots; for corn starch, it is - 13790 lots, up 814 lots. The registered warehouse receipt volume for yellow corn is 0 lots, down 58377 lots; for corn starch, it is 0 lots, down 4510 lots. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 372 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] Outer - market (CBOT) - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 455.25 cents/bushel, down 6.5 cents. CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1796424 contracts, up 22925 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn (weekly) is 375360 contracts, up 63018 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2448.8 yuan/ton, down 1.87 yuan. The ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang, it is 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang, it is 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF price of imported corn is 2124.62 yuan/ton, down 15.24 yuan. The international freight of imported corn is 62 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 163 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan. The basis of the corn main contract is 97.8 yuan/ton, down 6.87 yuan. The spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 492 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2585.5 yuan/ton, down 1.11 yuan. The spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 819 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 16 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn output in the US is 432.34 million tons, up 6.81 million tons; the sown area is 36.93 million hectares, unchanged. In Brazil, the predicted annual output is 131 million tons, unchanged; the sown area is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged. In Argentina, the predicted annual output is 53 million tons, unchanged; the sown area is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged. In China, the predicted annual output is 301.24 million tons, up 6.24 million tons; the sown area is 44.96 million hectares, unchanged. In Ukraine, the predicted annual output is 29 million tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports (weekly) is 38.1 tons, down 6.6 tons; in northern ports, it is 252 tons, up 5 tons. Deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 406.3 tons, up 29.4 tons. Starch enterprise weekly inventory (weekly) is 121.7 tons, up 1.4 tons. The monthly import volume of corn is 80 tons, up 24 tons. The monthly export volume of corn starch is 16.74 tons, down 0.2 tons. The monthly output of feed is 3008.6 tons, up 30.7 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) is 31.57 days, up 1.3 days. The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 138.97 tons, up 4.83 tons. The alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 61.89%, up 3.13 percentage points. The starch enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 60.98%, up 2.18 percentage points. The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is 13 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; in Hebei, it is 79 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; in Jilin, it is 34 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.69%, down 0.15 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.08%, up 0.3 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.99%, up 0.73 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.99%, up 0.73 percentage points [2] Industry News - AgRural lowered its forecast for Brazil's total corn output in the 2025/26 season by 500,000 tons, from 1.362 billion tons forecast in February to 1.357 billion tons. As of the week ending March 26, 2026, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,789,524 tons, compared with 1,702,651 tons last week and 1,718,304 tons in the same period last year [2]
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260331
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 09:57
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will lead to the return of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal to the domestic market, continuously restricting the market with long - term supply pressure. The rapeseed meal price has fluctuated and declined recently, with large short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to participate in the short - term [2]. - The rapeseed oil market also shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The domestic rapeseed oil spot market has a light purchasing atmosphere, and the high price suppresses demand. The expected increase in the later import volume of Canadian rapeseed adds long - term supply pressure. The rapeseed oil futures price has generally maintained a wide - range high - level shock recently, with increased short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see or participate in the short - term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9884 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal is 2299 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. The closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed is 726.3 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed is 5763 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The 5 - 9 month - to - month spread of rapeseed oil is 93 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 5 - 9 month - to - month spread of rapeseed meal is - 63 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 195,830 lots, down 3,815 lots; the open interest of the main contract of rapeseed meal is 541,727 lots, up 8,198 lots [2]. - **Net Long Positions of Top 20 Holders**: The net long positions of rapeseed oil of the top 20 futures holders is - 25,117 lots, down 3,034 lots; the net long positions of rapeseed meal of the top 20 futures holders is - 179,489 lots, down 12,714 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 765, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,520 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,331.25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 5,325.9 yuan/ton, up 32.98 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 459 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the basis of the main contract of rapeseed meal is 221 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - **Substitute Spot Prices**: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 9,010 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,930 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,390 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 570 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 720 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.5 million tons, up 0.48 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - **Imports**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 6.96 million tons, down 5.12 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 20 million tons, down 5 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 18.25 million tons, down 8.25 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rate**: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 150,000 tons, down 25,000 tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 8.26%, up 2.13 percentage points [2]. - **Pressing Profit**: The pressing profit of imported rapeseed on the disk is 2 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 11,000 tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 23,000 tons, down 1,000 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 287,000 tons, up 17,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 63,800 tons, up 10,800 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 9,000 tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 236,000 tons, down 17,000 tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 16,200 tons, up 900 tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 28,400 tons, up 6,600 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly output of feed is 3,008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The cumulative catering revenue in February is 102.64 billion yuan, up 45.26 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 25.21%, up 2.85 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 25.21%, up 2.85 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 21.72%, up 0.72 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 21.73%, up 0.73 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 29.99%, down 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.42%, unchanged. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.32%, down 0.8 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 18.68%, down 0.2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On March 30 (Monday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher as the vegetable oil market gained momentum from the rise in crude oil. The most active May rapeseed futures contract rose 7.20 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 727.70 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As the South American soybean harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, and the competitive advantage of Brazilian soybeans is good, which frustrates the market's export expectations for US soybeans. Before the USDA released the planting intention report, analysts expected that the spring soybean planting area in the United States would expand significantly due to the increase in fertilizer costs last week. However, the uncertainty of the US - Iran conflict still exists, and the macro - risk premium still supports the US soybean market [2]. - AAFC keeps the forecast of the ending inventory of Canadian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season unchanged at 2.76 million tons and reduces the inventory forecast for the 2026/27 season by 200,000 tons to 1.46 million tons. The new - season supply - demand structure is expected to tighten [2]. - The EPA sets the total biofuel compliance obligation for 2026 at 26.81 billion RINs and for 2027 at 27.02 billion RINs, and requires large - scale refiners to bear 70% of the exemption quota, which meets market expectations. The US - Iran conflict has intensified, and US officials revealed that Trump is considering taking military action to obtain Iranian uranium, causing international oil prices to rise again [2]. - The President of Indonesia said that the country will increase the palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel from 40% to 50% this year, strengthening the country's biodiesel demand expectation. High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in the first 25 days of March while exports increased significantly, and the end - of - month inventory is expected to continue to decline, supporting the palm oil market price [2]. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and the rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions reported by My Agri - Net on Monday, the evolution of the Middle East situation, and the Indonesian biodiesel policy [2]
瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260331
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 09:57
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the pig industry is abundant, the market sentiment is low, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening entry is weak. Although the demand has a short - term boost before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, it is still in the off - season, which restricts the subsequent slaughter recovery space. The price of live pigs is expected to show a weak and volatile trend. The current main 2605 contract has reduced positions and fallen, and the far - month 2607 contract has fallen more than 3%, continuing the downward trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of state reserves, secondary fattening, and capital fluctuations on the market [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 9770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 235 yuan; the main contract position is 187160 lots, a decrease of 2159 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0 lots, a decrease of 441 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 63762 lots, an increase of 2362 lots [3] 2. Spot Price - The spot price of live pigs in Henan Zhumadian is 9500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 9300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 10200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. The main basis of live pigs is - 270 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory is 429670,000 heads, a decrease of 7130,000 heads; the national breeding sow inventory is 39610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [3] 4. Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI is 1.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; the average spot price of soybean meal is 3288.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.43 yuan; the average spot price of corn is 2448.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06 yuan; the DCE pig feed cost index is 943.48, a decrease of 0.23; the monthly output of feed is 28730,000 tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1424 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 189.87 yuan/head, a decrease of 48.39 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is - 344.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 46.56 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 50000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 13.7 yuan/kg, unchanged [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The cumulative catering revenue in February is 102.64 billion yuan, an increase of 45.26 billion yuan; the slaughter volume of national designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 31.77 million heads, a decrease of 12.27 million heads [3] 6. Industry News - On March 31, the daily slaughter volume of key provincial sample slaughtering enterprises was 140514 heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.71%. The overall breeding side actively sold, and the supply was abundant. The market sentiment was low, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening entry was weak. The slaughtering enterprise's operating rate continued to recover, and the frozen product storage capacity increased significantly [3]