Core Viewpoint - The ICE Dollar Index experienced a decline of 0.55%, closing at 97.8976 points, following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the potential for interest rate cuts in late 2025, leading to a sharp downward trend in the market [1] Group 1 - The ICE Dollar Index traded within a range of 98.276 to 97.707 points throughout the day [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.60%, ending at 1200.93 points, with a trading range of 1207.36 to 1199.16 points [1]

Group 1: Economic Context - The Kondratiev wave signifies the long-term cycles of the world economy, marked by the rise and fall of great powers, with the 1930s trade war reflecting the economic dynamics of that era[1] - In the 1930s, the U.S. was a trade surplus and creditor nation, while the U.K. was a trade deficit and debtor nation, a reversal of roles seen today with China as a creditor and the U.S. as a debtor[11] - Current global trade accounts for 30% of GDP, significantly higher than the 4-5% in the 1930s, indicating a deeper integration of the global economy[11] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The decline of the British pound in the 1930s was due to economic decline, depleted gold reserves, and debt defaults, paralleling current challenges faced by the U.S. dollar[2] - The U.S. government debt exceeds 120% of GDP, with interest payments over 3% of GDP, raising concerns about the dollar's stability[11] - Gold prices increased from $17 to $35 per ounce between 1931 and 1934, reflecting the depreciation of fiat currencies during monetary system transitions[31] Group 3: Tariff Impacts - The economic impact of tariffs today is expected to be greater than in the 1930s due to the higher global trade integration, with tariffs potentially affecting employment and income levels[3] - Historical data shows that tariffs in the 1930s did not significantly raise inflation in deficit countries, suggesting that current tariff impacts may also be limited in terms of price levels[3] - The U.S. trade deficit is projected to exceed $900 billion in 2024, with a significant portion attributed to China, highlighting ongoing trade tensions[25] Group 4: Policy Responses - The U.S. response to the Great Depression involved abandoning the gold standard and expanding the money supply, a strategy mirrored by China's recent dual monetary and fiscal easing policies[4] - Current U.S. tariff policies may lead to a fragmented trade system, similar to the 1930s, as countries seek to establish trade agreements independent of U.S. influence[4] - The political demand for tariffs is driven by widening wealth gaps, with historical parallels drawn to the 1930s when similar economic pressures led to protective measures[4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the Kondratiev wave, highlighting the historical context of major power shifts and the impact of technological revolutions on economic cycles [12][18][31] - The comparison between the 1930s trade war and current economic conditions suggests that the current global trade dynamics are more complex, with a higher percentage of GDP tied to global trade [3][11][30] - The report indicates that the current monetary system is undergoing a transformation, with the dollar facing challenges similar to those faced by the British pound in the 1930s, while gold is expected to appreciate as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation [2][31][32] Group 2 - The analysis of tariff impacts reveals that the quantitative effects of tariffs today may be significantly greater than those in the 1930s, while the price effects may be limited [3][4][30] - The report discusses the macroeconomic policy responses, noting that current strategies in China, such as dual monetary and fiscal easing, are seen as effective in stimulating domestic demand [4][5][30] - The fragmentation of trade patterns is highlighted, with the emergence of a multipolar trade currency system driven by current tariff policies and geopolitical tensions [4][5][30] Group 3 - The report outlines the political motivations behind tariffs, linking them to rising income inequality and the protection of traditional industries [5][6][30] - The technological revolution is identified as a key driver of the Kondratiev wave, with AI and related technologies poised to shape the next economic cycle [4][12][31] - The historical context of trade negotiations is examined, showing how surplus countries have historically sought to lower tariffs while deficit countries have maintained barriers [4][5][30]

Market Overview - Spot gold fell by 1.27% on Friday, closing at $3309.47 per ounce, marking a near three-week low; COMEX gold futures dropped 1.31% to $3331.00 per ounce [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May exceeded expectations with an increase of 139,000 jobs, compared to the forecast of 126,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, diminishing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - Market expectations for a September rate cut decreased from 88% to 60%, leading to a stronger dollar and rising 10-year Treasury yields, which suppressed gold's safe-haven demand [1] Gold Market Dynamics - On Monday, gold exhibited a downward trend, following several consecutive red candlesticks after an initial green candlestick, indicating a prevailing selling pressure [2] - The opening price was $3312.23, with a peak at $3321.16, reflecting a gradual decline in price [2] Currency Market Insights - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) showed some volatility on Friday, opening at 98.74, and remained in a fluctuating state, having previously touched a near 32-day low [4] - The market is closely monitoring the non-farm payroll data for further direction on the dollar's trajectory [4] Employment Data - The ADP report for May revealed an increase of 275,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 180,000, indicating robust demand for labor, particularly in the service and manufacturing sectors [5] Eurozone Economic Indicators - The final value of the Eurozone's May Services PMI was revised down to 53.2 from an initial 53.5, indicating a slowdown in growth despite remaining above the neutral level of 50 [6] - Weak new order growth and declining business confidence in Germany (PMI at 52.1) and France (PMI at 53.7) raise concerns about the overall economic recovery in the Eurozone [6] Federal Reserve Economic Assessment - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reported moderate economic growth in the U.S. from mid-April to late May, with easing labor market tightness and stable consumer spending, although manufacturing activities face challenges [7] - Overall price pressures are easing, with most regions reporting a slowdown in cost increases [7]

Group 1: Core Perspectives on Euro Internationalization - The Euro has not significantly increased its global role despite being the second-largest currency since its inception in 1999, with its share in international currency usage remaining around 19%, still far behind the US dollar [1][2][3] - The Euro was created primarily for European integration rather than to compete with the dollar, and its internationalization lacks sufficient "hard" support compared to the dollar's backing from the US's economic, political, and military strength [3][4] - The Eurozone's economic performance has lagged behind the US and emerging economies since the 2009 Eurozone crisis, with its share of global GDP declining from 20% to 15% by 2023, which limits the Euro's global influence [4][6] Group 2: Challenges and Opportunities for Euro - The Euro's potential rise is hindered by the need for enhanced military strength and strategic autonomy, as reliance on US military power undermines trust in the Euro as a global currency [7][12] - The current international monetary environment presents opportunities for the Euro, as the dollar's dominance is being challenged by US economic policies and a decline in global trust towards the dollar [9][10][11] - To capitalize on these opportunities, the Eurozone must improve its economic vitality, enhance capital market attractiveness, and achieve political consensus among member states to elevate the Euro's international status [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the imminent rise of the Euro as a global currency, contrasting it with the declining dominance of the US dollar, largely attributed to the erratic policies of former President Trump [1][3][6]. Group 1: Euro's Rise - The Euro has reached a near eight-year high against the US dollar, surpassing the 1.14 mark, with a cumulative increase of over 9% [1]. - The Eurozone is experiencing a strategic opportunity as the dollar's credibility diminishes, allowing the Euro to potentially take on a more significant role in the global financial system [6][8]. - The European Free Trade Association has signed 31 agreements covering 75 countries, with an annual trade volume exceeding 2 trillion Euros, establishing the Euro as a stable currency for trade [6]. Group 2: Dollar's Decline - The US dollar index has dropped by 9% since January 20, marking the worst performance for a new president in the first hundred days since 1973 [3]. - The US national debt has surged from $27.7 trillion in 2020 to $36 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, consuming nearly one-fifth of federal revenue [4]. - Trump's political interference with the Federal Reserve has undermined the dollar's institutional credibility, leading to a loss of its status as a global safe-haven asset [3][4]. Group 3: Global Shift in Currency Preferences - International capital flows are increasingly favoring the Euro, with European equity funds seeing a net inflow of $34.7 billion in the first quarter of 2025, compared to $19.8 billion for the US [8]. - The share of the dollar in global reserves has decreased from over 70% to 58%, while the Euro, Chinese Yuan, and gold are emerging as key alternatives [8]. - Countries like Russia, Iran, China, and Saudi Arabia are accelerating efforts to establish non-dollar payment systems, indicating a historical peak in the desire to "de-dollarize" the global economy [8].

Group 1 - International gold prices fell below the key psychological level of $3300 per ounce, currently reported at $3304.68 per ounce, with a decline of 1.13% [1] - The highest price reached was $3349.78 per ounce, while the lowest was $3292.38 per ounce during the trading session [1] Group 2 - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that if member governments strengthen the financial and security framework of the Eurozone, the euro could become a viable alternative to the dollar, benefiting the Eurozone significantly [2] - Lagarde emphasized the need for a deeper and more liquid capital market, stronger legal foundations, and military strength to support the euro's increased role [2] - Investors, particularly official ones, are seeking geopolitical guarantees and are inclined to invest in regions that are reliable security partners [2] Group 3 - Analyst Christian Borjon Valencia noted that the bullish trend for gold remains intact, with potential testing of last week's high of $3365 per ounce [3] - If gold prices break above $3365, the next targets would be $3400, followed by the May 7 high of $3438 and the historical high of $3500 per ounce [3] - On the bearish side, if gold prices fall below $3300, a decline to the May 20 low of $3204 and then to the 50-day simple moving average of $3199 is expected [3]

美元本周下跌2%，创下自4月关税抛售以来最大单周跌幅，投资者对美国财政状况的担忧情绪急剧升温。 投资者对美国财政负担不断加重的担忧正在慢慢积聚。 对美国资产市场质量的持续担忧以及去美元化威胁继续对美元构成压力。 当日稍早，美国财政部长贝森特试图淡化美元走弱的担忧，声称"很大程度上是其他国家或其他货币在走强，而不是美元在走弱"。贝森特表示，欧洲的"财政扩 张"提振了欧元，而日本央行的加息则支撑了日元。但市场显然不买账： 周五彭博美元指数的跌幅明显超过正常水平，价格跌破4月低点，创年内新低。 ICE美元指数周四反弹失败，周五重挫下跌，一度跌破99整数关口。 财政扩张与货币竞争：美元跌势的外部推手 报道表示，投资者的恐慌情绪并非毫无根据。 特朗普的减税法案引发的财政赤字担忧已经推动长期美债遭遇抛售 ，30年期国债收益率本周上涨0.13个百分点，突破5%关口。BBH分析师警告： 周五，美元对包括欧元和日元在内的一篮子货币下跌0.9%，本周累计跌幅达到2%。最令市场担忧的是美元对高利率环境的异常反应。通常情况下， 更高的收 益率会增加美元资产的吸引力，但当前美元、美国政府债券和股票同时下跌的现象，被视为投资者恐慌抛售美 ...

当地时间周二（6日）晚间，媒体报道称，英国和美国或将于本周签署贸易协议，英国部分出口产品有 望免于遭受美国总统特朗普对钢铁和汽车征收的额外关税的影响。受此提振，英镑对美元上涨近65点至 1.3379。 事实上，英镑是今年以来表现最强的主要货币之一。英镑对美元汇率最近一个月累计涨幅约4.80%，最 近三个月累计涨幅约7.10%。英镑对人民币近期亦创下近年来新高，四月下旬一度触及9.8070。有中国 留学生在社交媒体上戏言，"英镑可能比我先上985。" 英镑何以走强？ 在美国与多个主要经济体发生贸易争端的背景下，部分资金将英镑视为"中性货币"来进行配置。 几家欢喜几家愁 英镑走强对于从事中英双边业务的企业影响不小。比如，英镑升值直接推高了中国家庭留学英国的成 本。在英镑对人民币汇率最近三个月累计涨幅将近8%的背景下，"留英"预算面临"被动加价"。 特朗普关税威胁之下，美国经济增长前景承压，美元汇率亦随之下行。"我们见证了美元指数近年来最 剧烈的一次下跌，从110一路滑落至100以下，这使得所有主要货币都从中受益，英镑亦不例外。"GTC 集团首席分析师贾米尔·艾哈迈德（Jameel Ahmad）在接受第一财经采访时 ...

一、债券市场发行情况 3月份，债券市场共发行各类债券87356.6亿元。国债发行12786.3亿元，地方政府债券发行9788.0亿元，金融债 券发行10226.4亿元，公司信用类债券¹发行13335.2亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行186.0亿元，同业存单发行 40686.2亿元。 截至3月末，债券市场托管余额183.1万亿元。其中，银行间市场托管余额161.8万亿元，交易所市场托管余额 21.3万亿元。分券种来看，国债托管余额35.3万亿元，地方政府债券托管余额49.8万亿元，金融债券托管余额 41.5万亿元，公司信用类债券托管余额33.1万亿元，信贷资产支持证券托管余额1.1万亿元，同业存单托管余额 21.2万亿元。商业银行柜台债券托管余额1649.0亿元。 二、债券市场运行情况 3月份，银行间债券市场现券成交36.5万亿元，日均成交1.7万亿元，同比减少6.7%，环比增加22.1%。单笔成 交量在500 万 -5000万元的交易占总成交金额的49.8%，单笔成交量在9000万元以上的交易占总成交金额的 44.0%，单笔平均成交量4198.0万元。交易所债券市场现券成交3.6万亿元，日均成交1718.4亿元。 ...