Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that energy is the main battlefield for green transformation and "dual carbon" efforts, advocating for the expansion of green electricity applications and ensuring that new electricity demand is primarily met by renewable energy sources [1][2] - The central economic work conference has identified "adhering to 'dual carbon' leadership and promoting comprehensive green transformation" as a key task for economic work in the coming year [1] - Key subjects and focus industries include coal and oil, which are the main energy consumers and carbon emitters, with a call for deep energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformations in these sectors [1] Group 2 - The meeting has outlined plans for the development of a national energy strategy, which aims to guide society in increasing the proportion of renewable energy supply and accelerating the construction of clean energy bases [2] - Continuous efforts will be made to combat pollution and optimize ecosystems, including comprehensive solid waste management and the implementation of a system for the harmless management of solid waste [2] - The initiative includes significant projects for the protection and restoration of important ecosystems, with a focus on major lakes and the integration of natural protected areas into a national park system [2]

Core Insights - Shandong state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have achieved significant financial performance, with total assets reaching 5.7 trillion yuan, operating revenue of 2.3 trillion yuan, and total profit of 868.6 billion yuan as of November 2023, maintaining a leading position nationally [2][8][9] Group 1: Financial Performance - As of November, Shandong SOEs reported total assets of 5.7 trillion yuan [2][8] - From January to November, the operating revenue was 2.3 trillion yuan, with a total profit of 868.6 billion yuan [2][9] - Fixed asset investment by Shandong SOEs reached 165 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.7% [2][9] Group 2: Strategic Development - The government has implemented ten measures to promote stable growth among Shandong SOEs, setting profit growth targets for different enterprises [2][9] - The revenue share from emerging industries within Shandong SOEs increased to 25.1%, up by 6.2 percentage points from the previous year [3][10] - Shandong SOEs are actively participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, with over 14,000 China-Europe freight trains operated and 151 shipping routes established [3][10] Group 3: Innovation and R&D - Shandong SOEs have established 78 national-level R&D platforms and have undertaken 487 major technology projects since the 14th Five-Year Plan, ranking among the top in the country [4][11] - R&D expenditure for Shandong SOEs reached 42 billion yuan, the highest among provincial-level regulated enterprises [4][11] Group 4: Reform and Governance - The reform tasks at the provincial level for Shandong SOEs have been largely completed, with a focus on improving corporate governance and reducing management layers [5][12] - The overall asset-liability ratio for Shandong SOEs is maintained below 70%, with enhanced debt management practices [5][12] Group 5: Party Building and Compliance - Shandong SOEs are reinforcing party leadership and compliance with regulations, including stricter oversight of financial expenditures and decision-making processes [6][13] - Initiatives are in place to address corruption and improve governance in key areas such as bidding and project management [6][13]

Consumption - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value of 2.9%[12] - Sales of "two new" products and real estate-related consumption continued to decline, with automotive consumption down 8.3% and home appliances down 19.4% year-on-year[12] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, indicating a gradual release of service consumption potential[14] Investment - Fixed asset investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% in November, marking three consecutive months of negative growth[23] - Real estate development investment fell by 31.4% year-on-year in November, a significant increase in the decline compared to the previous month's 23.2%[23] - Equipment purchase investment showed a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[24] Trade - In November, exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, rebounding from a previous decline of 1.1%[32] - Exports to the EU saw a significant recovery with a growth rate of 14.8%, while exports to the US decreased by 28.6%[32] - Imports rose slightly by 1.9% year-on-year, with notable increases in the import of integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment[34]

Core Insights - In 2025, China's technological innovation continues to thrive, with significant advancements in various fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum information, life sciences, and clean energy, contributing to high-quality development and improved living standards [1] Group 1: Fundamental Research - China has achieved new heights in fundamental scientific research, with multiple results breaking international records and filling gaps in various fields [2] - The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) has successfully measured two key parameters of neutrino oscillation with a precision 1.5 to 1.8 times better than previous international standards [2] - A team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences has created five types of two-dimensional metals with single-atom thickness, marking a significant breakthrough in material science [3] - As of August 2025, China leads the world with 2,342 hot papers, accounting for 53.2% of the global total, and ranks second in highly cited papers [3] Group 2: Cutting-edge Technologies - In quantum computing, the "Zuchongzhi 3" prototype has been developed, featuring 105 readable qubits and achieving speeds surpassing the fastest supercomputers [4] - The AI model DeepSeek-R1 has been released, achieving performance comparable to top global models with fewer computational resources, marking a shift in AI development strategies [4] - The number of AI companies in China has exceeded 5,300, representing 15% of the global total, establishing a comprehensive industrial system [4] Group 3: Robotics and Aerospace - The humanoid robot industry is rapidly emerging, with significant public demonstrations showcasing advancements in embodied intelligence [5][6] - The Tianwen-2 probe has been successfully launched, marking China's first asteroid sampling and comet flyby mission, filling a technological gap in small celestial body exploration [6] - The EAST nuclear fusion experiment has achieved a world record of 1 million degrees Celsius for 1,066 seconds, validating the feasibility of steady-state operation for fusion reactors [6] Group 4: Life Sciences and Resource Utilization - In life sciences, breakthroughs in pest control and cancer treatment have been made, promoting green and precise pest management and developing new strategies for nasopharyngeal cancer immunotherapy [8] - The South-to-North Water Diversion Project has delivered over 80 billion cubic meters of water, benefiting 185 million people and addressing groundwater over-extraction issues [9] - China's high-speed rail technology has set new records, with the CR450 train achieving a single-column speed of 453 km/h, leading the world in rail technology [9] Group 5: Global Collaboration - China is leading global renewable energy development, with solar and wind power surpassing fossil fuels in new electricity generation [10] - Major scientific projects like the Jiangmen Neutrino Experiment are open to global collaboration, attracting top scientists to tackle significant scientific challenges [10] - China is sharing technological advancements in public health and agriculture, contributing to global governance improvements [11]

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·计算机 计算机行业深度报告 关注地方国企资本运作——国企改革和地方 增收的交汇点 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 30 日 证券分析师 王紫敬 执业证书：S0600521080005 021-60199781 wangzj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 2024/12/30 2025/4/30 2025/8/29 2025/12/28 计算机 沪深300 相关研究 《梳理 SpaceX 的 A 股供应商》 2025-12-29 《商业航天 还有哪 些事件 值得期 待？》 2025-12-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 土地财政规模承压，盘活存量资产。地方财政收入来源一共"四本账"， 其中国有土地使用权出让收入一直是地方财政收入的重要来源，而 2022 年以来，土地财政收入规模承压，因此 2022 年开始，国家和地方都陆 续出台了各项政策和措施提升土地使用权出让以外的财政收入，路径 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the continuous price differentiation in the upstream industry and provides an overview of mid - level events, industry status in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors. Upstream prices show a trend of divergence, with some rising and some falling, while the mid - stream and downstream industries have their own development characteristics such as low - level operation in some mid - stream industries and recovery in some downstream industries. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The State Administration for Market Regulation has deployed key tasks for 2026, including deepening fair competition governance, breaking administrative monopolies, strengthening anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement, promoting the development quality of business entities, and strengthening the regular supervision of the platform economy [1] - **Service Industry**: The 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan will be implemented from January 1, 2026, with 935 items of goods subject to import provisional tax rates lower than the most - favored - nation tax rates, and new national sub - items added. Also, regulations on the deduction of advertising and business promotion expenses for certain industries have been announced [2] Industry Overview - **Upstream**: In the chemical industry, PTA prices are rising; in the non - ferrous metals sector, copper prices are rising; in the energy industry, LNG prices are falling [3] - **Mid - stream**: Chemical product start - up rates are at a low level, power plant coal consumption is increasing, and asphalt start - up is in the off - season [4] - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities are continuously warming up, and the number of domestic flights is increasing [4] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On December 29, the spot prices of corn, palm oil, cotton, and the average wholesale price of pork increased year - on - year, while the spot price of eggs decreased [37] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On December 29, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel increased year - on - year [37] - **Ferrous Metals**: On December 29, the spot price of线材 increased year - on - year, while the spot prices of rebar and iron ore decreased slightly [37] - **Non - metals**: On December 29, the spot price of natural rubber increased year - on - year, while the spot price of glass and the China Plastic City price index decreased [37] - **Energy**: On December 29, the spot prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increased slightly year - on - year, while the spot price of liquefied natural gas and coal price decreased [37] - **Chemical Industry**: On December 29, the spot price of PTA increased year - on - year, while the spot price of polyethylene decreased [37] - **Real Estate**: On December 29, the cement price index and the building materials composite index decreased slightly year - on - year, and the concrete price index remained unchanged [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The operation performance of public REITs is the core premise for judging their investment value. The income of REITs essentially comes from the cash - flow creation ability of underlying assets. The differentiation of operation performance is the key to distinguish high - quality assets from weak ones [41]. - In the current stage of public REITs with valuation adjustment, narrowing price difference between primary and secondary markets, and accelerating policy expansion and commercial real - estate pilot, it is recommended to adopt a dumbbell allocation strategy to balance the needs of "defense for income" and "offense for elasticity" [74]. Summary by Directory Market Review: From Valuation Fluctuation to Value Return Market Characteristics and Driving Factors - China's public REITs have entered the stage of normalized development. In 2025, they continued the normalized issuance trend, but the scale declined. By December 20, 2025, 19 public REITs were issued with a scale of 38.7 billion yuan [13]. - From 2021 to 2025, the subscription multiples of China's public REITs fluctuated significantly, driven by product supply scarcity, market sentiment, and expected returns of asset types [19]. - The secondary - market performance of public REITs can be divided into six stages since the listing of the first batch in 2021. As of December 19, 2025, the annual increase of the CSI REITs total return index was +3.2%, significantly weaker than the CSI 300 and CSI Convertible Bonds, only better than the CSI Aggregate Bonds [21][22]. - The return of public REITs is between the CSI 300 and CSI Aggregate Bonds, complementary to the stock - bond hybrid nature of CSI Convertible Bonds. In the long - term, REITs have lower volatility than the CSI 300 and CSI Convertible Bonds, higher than the CSI Aggregate Bonds, and have a low correlation with other assets, suitable for balancing portfolio fluctuations [27]. Institutional Allocation Preference Differences - The holders of the current public REITs' floating shares are highly concentrated, dominated by institutional investors. Securities proprietary trading accounts for 51.3%, followed by insurance funds (19.9%) and industrial capital (13.6%), with the total proportion of these three types of institutional investors exceeding 84% [2][28]. - The structure of floating - share holders of different types of public REITs shows significant sector differentiation. Securities proprietary trading prefers assets with high liquidity and high valuation elasticity, while insurance funds focus on assets with stable long - term cash flows. The proportion of public funds and individual investors is low [2][30]. - The number of REIT products allocated by public fund FOFs has been continuously expanding, but the growth rate has slowed down. From the first to the second quarter of 2025, the allocation was diversified, and from the second to the third quarter, it shifted to concentrated addition of high - attention products [31][36]. Fundamental: Differentiated Performance of Asset Types - **Industrial Parks**: In 2025, the rental rate and rent level of industrial park REITs showed the characteristics of "intensified differentiation and supply - demand game". High - quality science and technology parks and core - location assets showed resistance to decline, while some traditional industrial parks faced rising vacancy rates and falling rents [42]. - **Warehousing and Logistics**: In 2025, the operating income of warehousing and logistics REITs mostly showed a fluctuating downward trend. The rental rate was differentiated, with some maintaining full occupancy and some fluctuating significantly. The rent level generally declined, and core - location assets had strong anti - risk abilities [46]. - **Consumption**: In 2025, consumption REITs showed significant differentiation. In the third quarter, some performed well, while others declined. The market presented the characteristics of "stable high - level rental rate and differentiated rent level" [51]. - **Affordable Housing**: The affordable housing REIT market showed strong operational resilience, with most REITs maintaining a rental rate of over 93% by the third quarter, and the rent level fluctuated minimally [54]. - **Transportation**: The core driving logic of the transportation sector is the recovery of travel demand and the improvement of asset operation efficiency. The traffic volume and toll revenue showed significant differentiation among different REITs [57]. - **Ecological and Environmental Protection**: The operating performance of ecological and environmental protection REITs improved. In the third quarter, the operating income of two listed REITs increased year - on - year, and the waste treatment volume and sewage treatment volume increased [61]. - **Energy**: In 2025, except for one REIT, the operating income of other energy REITs declined significantly. The photovoltaic field performed well, while the wind - power field was generally sluggish [63]. - **Municipal Facilities**: The heating area and charging area of a municipal heating REIT remained basically stable in 2025, but the heat - stop rate and charging rate decreased significantly in the third quarter [67]. - **Water Conservancy**: The operating income of a water - conservancy REIT increased significantly in the third quarter of 2025, mainly due to the 50.91% increase in the supply of raw water [69]. - **New Infrastructure**: Two new - infrastructure REITs disclosed their operating income for the first time in the third quarter of 2025. Their trusteeship service fee collection rates were both 100%, laying a good foundation for subsequent operations [71]. Investment Recommendations: Structural Opportunities under Policy Dividends and Asset Differentiation Primary Market: Select Projects in the Differentiated Market - Since this year, the enthusiasm for REITs new - issue subscriptions has declined, and there have been cases of breaking the issue price on the first - day of listing. The decline in primary - market new - issue returns is affected by the weak secondary - market performance and the narrowing price difference between the primary and secondary markets. Different asset types show differentiated performance. It is recommended to focus on high - quality projects in primary - market new - issue subscriptions and strategic placements, and be cautious about strategic placements with long lock - up periods [75]. Secondary Market: The Dumbbell Strategy Combines Defense and Offense - Public REITs are a supplementary asset class for asset allocation, matching the investment needs of "idle funds + long - term holding". Appropriate allocation of REITs can improve the Sharpe ratio of the investment portfolio, but the allocation ratio should be moderate [77][78]. - In the future, there will be short - term local unlocking disturbances, with a peak in the first half of 2026. It is recommended to follow the "policy dividends + high - quality assets" principle, adopt the dumbbell strategy, explore the stable dividend value of affordable housing and municipal environmental - protection assets, and invest in new - infrastructure sectors such as data centers and clean energy. Also, grasp the incremental opportunities brought by expansion and issuance [82].

Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals market has become the focal point of the commodities sector, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2026 and geopolitical risk, with gold prices reaching an all-time high [2] - Silver's performance has been particularly remarkable, with a monthly increase marking the highest since 1979 and a weekly rise of 16.08% [2] - UBS warns that the current price surge is largely driven by sentiment and technical momentum rather than solid industry fundamentals, indicating potential risks of price corrections as market sentiment normalizes [2] Group 2: Energy and Industrial Metals - The energy market shows mixed performance, with crude oil prices fluctuating around $58 per barrel, supported by U.S. actions against Venezuela and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but limited by ample global supply [3] - UBS notes that the U.S. government prefers to manage inflation through low oil prices, establishing an "invisible floor" for oil prices around $50 [3] - Industrial metals maintain high prices due to optimistic market sentiment regarding Chinese economic support policies and strong demand for metals like copper and aluminum in green energy infrastructure [3] Group 3: Agriculture and Livestock - The agricultural market faces challenges from South American weather and geopolitical risks, with corn and soybean prices initially boosted by Chinese demand but later pressured by farmer sell-offs [4] - A significant warning is that soybean export volumes have decreased by nearly one-third year-on-year, which may impact planting decisions for 2026 [4] - In contrast, corn exports have surged by 30% year-on-year, becoming a highlight in the grain market, while the livestock sector remains robust for cattle but faces downward pressure in the pork market due to increased supply [4] Group 4: Market Outlook for 2026 - As the new year approaches, market liquidity is expected to remain low, amplifying the impact of any sudden news on prices [5] - The current commodities market is at a critical juncture, with precious metals experiencing strong momentum but facing valuation challenges, while energy and agricultural markets seek new pricing logic amid policy interventions and climate variability [5] - For 2026, a return to fundamentals may replace the current sentiment-driven trading, becoming the main theme in the market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with macro policies focusing on promoting consumption and expanding investment to ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] Export Performance - China's export performance in 2025 was better than expected, with nominal exports increasing by 5.4% in USD and 6.2% in RMB in the first 11 months. After adjusting for price factors, actual export growth was 7.9% in USD and 9.0% in RMB [4][5] - The strong external demand contributed significantly to China's economic growth, with net exports boosting GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 29.0% of the cumulative GDP growth [4] - The expected growth rate for China's exports in 2026 is projected at 3.4% in USD terms, supported by stable US-China tariffs and China's cost advantages [9][28][30] Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment is expected to recover slightly in 2026, from around 1% growth in 2025 to approximately 2% in 2026, driven by resilient exports and policy support for advanced manufacturing [31][46] - The decline in manufacturing investment in 2025 was attributed to "strong supply and weak demand" and trade friction, but the outlook for 2026 suggests a recovery due to improved export expectations and continued policy support [36][46] Real Estate Sector - The direct drag of the real estate sector on the economy is expected to weaken in 2026, with a projected decline in commodity housing sales area of about 5% and a narrowing of the decline in real estate investment to around -11% [55][58] - The real estate sector's recovery will depend on improved consumer confidence and the successful resolution of credit risks among property developers [56][57] Consumption and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is crucial for achieving the 5% GDP growth target in 2026, with a focus on promoting consumption and investment [64] - The government is expected to maintain support for consumption through long-term special bonds, with a funding scale at least equal to the 300 billion RMB allocated in 2025 [66][68] - Infrastructure investment is projected to rebound to 8% growth in 2026, supported by previously announced policies [64]

Core Insights - In 2025, China has made significant advancements in various fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum information, life sciences, and clean energy, contributing to high-quality development and improving the quality of life for its citizens [4][9]. Group 1: Basic Research Achievements - China has achieved new heights in basic scientific research, with multiple results breaking international records and filling gaps in various fields [5]. - As of August 2025, China produced 2,342 hot papers, accounting for 53.2% of the global total, maintaining the top position worldwide [8]. Group 2: Breakthroughs in Frontier Technologies - In quantum computing, the "Zuchongzhi 3" superconducting quantum computing prototype was released, outperforming the fastest supercomputers in processing quantum random circuit sampling [9]. - The AI model DeepSeek-R1 was launched, achieving performance comparable to top global models with fewer computational resources, marking a shift in AI development strategies [9]. Group 3: Innovations in Robotics and Aerospace - The humanoid robot industry is rapidly emerging, with significant achievements showcased during major public events, highlighting China's capabilities in this sector [10]. - The Tianwen-2 probe was successfully launched, marking China's first asteroid sampling and comet flyby mission, filling a technological gap in small celestial body exploration [10]. Group 4: Energy and Communication Advances - The EAST nuclear fusion experiment achieved a world record of 1 million degrees Celsius for 1,066 seconds, validating the feasibility of controlled nuclear fusion energy [11]. - A new adaptive full-bandwidth high-speed communication chip was developed, capable of data transmission rates exceeding 120 Gbps, laying the hardware foundation for 6G technology [12]. Group 5: Enhancements in Quality of Life - In life sciences, breakthroughs in pest control and cancer treatment strategies have been developed, promoting green and precise pest management and improving cancer treatment protocols [13]. - Major engineering projects like the South-to-North Water Diversion have benefited millions, addressing water scarcity issues in northern China [14]. Group 6: Global Collaboration and Contributions - China has led global renewable energy growth, with solar and wind power surpassing fossil fuels in new electricity generation, contributing to climate change mitigation efforts [15]. - The DeepSeek model has been made available globally, demonstrating China's commitment to sharing technological advancements and solutions for public health and agricultural safety [15].