资金从何而起 [Table_Authors] 吴信坤(分析师) ——港股资金跟踪新范式 1 本报告导读： ①基于属地来源和历史交易行为的"两步法"核心框架将港股资金面拆分为长短线 外资、内资、港资等各类资金。②拆分后资金存量规模显著分化，过去以来外资占 比虽下滑但仍延续主导，南向定价权边际提升。③长短线外资在交易的换手频率和 方向变动上存在差异，南向通常会逆势买入，近期外资流出而南向流入的格局仍延 续。 投资要点： 登记编号 S0880525040084 陆嘉瑞(研究助理) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880125042248 风险提示：部分资金数据为估算值，与真实情况或有出入。 策 略 研 究 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.17 2025-05-18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 海 外 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040061 余培仪(分析师) 021-38676666 [Table_Summary] 基于历史交易行为辨别外资属性的核心框架。通常而言，微观资金 面的跟踪源自各类投资者资金流动的汇总，港股 ...

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's recent portfolio adjustments reflect a strategic shift towards sectors with stable cash flows, particularly consumer and energy stocks, while reducing exposure to financial stocks due to macroeconomic uncertainties [2][4]. Group 1: Portfolio Adjustments - Berkshire Hathaway completely divested from Citigroup, selling all 14.6395 million shares, and reduced its stake in Bank of America by over 7% [2]. - The company significantly increased its holdings in Constellation Brands by 113.5%, raising its position to 12.009 million shares, marking its first major investment in the alcoholic beverage sector [2]. - Energy stocks, including Occidental Petroleum and Pool Corp, were also increased, aligning with the strategy of investing in companies with stable cash flows [2]. Group 2: Key Holdings - Apple remains a cornerstone of Berkshire's portfolio, with 300 million shares valued at $66.6 billion, constituting 25% of the investment portfolio [3]. - Berkshire's long-term commitment to Apple is reinforced by confidence in its ecosystem and leadership, as highlighted by Buffett's praise for CEO Tim Cook [3]. Group 3: Cash Reserves - As of the end of the first quarter, Berkshire's cash reserves reached a record high of $334 billion, with over $300 billion invested in short-term U.S. Treasury securities [4]. - This strategy serves as a defensive measure against potential macroeconomic risks and positions the company to capitalize on high-certainty opportunities during market volatility [4]. Group 4: Investment Philosophy Evolution - Buffett's investment philosophy has evolved from "cigar butt" investing to focusing on companies with strong economic moats, emphasizing the importance of free cash flow and competitive advantages [5]. - Historical successes, such as the acquisition of See's Candies and American Express, illustrate the effectiveness of this approach, while past mistakes have reinforced the principle of investing within a defined circle of competence [5]. Group 5: Insights for Investors - The adjustments in Berkshire's portfolio highlight the pursuit of certainty, with reduced bank stock holdings indicating concerns about financial system risks and increased consumer stock investments reflecting confidence in essential markets [6]. - Maintaining a high cash ratio is not merely conservative but provides flexibility for strategic investments during crises [6]. - The strategy of focusing on cash-rich, stable consumer assets during economic uncertainty is emphasized, alongside the need for a balanced approach to technology stocks [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by central enterprises in the new materials and new energy sectors, particularly the issues of "supply-demand imbalance" and "incremental growth without efficiency" as they expand their investments in strategic emerging industries [1][3][4]. Group 1: Supply-Demand Imbalance - Central enterprises in sectors like new materials and new energy are experiencing a mismatch between supply and demand, leading to overcapacity and underutilization of resources [3][4]. - The investment in strategic emerging industries has increased significantly, with a reported investment of 2.18 trillion yuan in 2023, marking a 32.1% year-on-year growth [12]. - Despite the push for expansion, many enterprises are struggling with low capacity utilization rates, with some reporting rates below 30% [9][22]. Group 2: Incremental Growth Challenges - Companies are facing difficulties in achieving expected returns on their investments, leading to a situation where increased production does not translate into proportional revenue growth [21][23]. - The carbonates industry, for example, saw a projected gross margin of less than 10% in 2024, significantly below the industry average, due to falling prices and excess inventory [22]. - The construction sector is also experiencing similar issues, with rapid capacity expansion in offshore wind projects leading to market saturation and reduced profit margins [24][25]. Group 3: Strategic Direction and Policy Alignment - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has set clear quantitative targets for central enterprises, aiming for 35% of their revenue to come from strategic emerging industries by 2025 [4][28]. - Enterprises are encouraged to balance policy directives with market realities, as they face challenges in aligning their operational capabilities with ambitious targets set by SASAC [27][29]. - There is a concern among enterprises about the potential risks of investing in new materials and technologies, particularly if market demand does not meet expectations [28][30].

Core Viewpoint - The Jiangsu Provincial Government has released the "Jiangsu Province Action Plan for Optimizing the Business Environment (2025 Edition)", focusing on enhancing the business environment through 35 key tasks and 85 action points, emphasizing the importance of "enterprise experience" as a measure of success [1][2] Group 1: Key Areas of Reform - The action plan aims to improve the business environment by transitioning from "paper policies" to "convenience at fingertips", providing full lifecycle services to facilitate business operations [2] - Jiangsu will implement systematic reforms across 10 key areas, including market access and international trade, to streamline processes such as electronic business licenses and remote customs inspections [2][3] - The plan encourages private enterprises to participate in competitive sectors like nuclear power and renewable energy, with a goal of including 200 projects annually in the private investment focus list [2] Group 2: Service Enhancements - Jiangsu will enhance service quality for production factors like water and electricity, integrating temporary utility applications into construction approval processes [3] - The government has conducted extensive outreach, visiting over 391,000 enterprises to address financing challenges for small and micro businesses, and has introduced various financial products to support them [3] - A series of 22 measures have been introduced to stabilize foreign investment, with ongoing efforts to improve communication and resolve issues faced by foreign enterprises [3] Group 3: Policy and Legal Framework - The action plan emphasizes comprehensive policy support, focusing on legal protections for enterprises and expanding public legal services to new economic sectors [4][5] - Specific measures will be taken to facilitate the transformation of individual businesses into enterprises, with tailored support for each case [5] - The plan includes initiatives to enhance market supervision and administrative enforcement, aiming to eliminate local protectionism and promote free flow of production factors [5] Group 4: Administrative Efficiency - The action plan aims to improve the efficiency of administrative services, with a focus on completing 29 "one-stop" reform tasks and processing 13.5 million administrative cases [6] - New initiatives will be launched to streamline high-frequency administrative tasks, including the establishment of a specialized database for foreign trade enterprises [6][7] - The construction sector will see reforms aimed at expediting project approvals and enhancing public infrastructure service efficiency [7]

Group 1 - The United States and the UAE signed an economic agreement worth over $200 billion, enhancing cooperation in sectors such as aviation, energy, rare earths, and artificial intelligence [1][5] - The UAE plans to invest $1.4 trillion in the US over the next 10 years, focusing on energy, technology, and semiconductor sectors [2][5] - The agreement includes provisions for the UAE to import 500,000 advanced AI chips from Nvidia annually starting in 2025 [2][3] Group 2 - The establishment of a "US-UAE AI Acceleration Partnership" framework aims to strengthen collaboration on critical technologies, with the UAE's G42 leading investments in AI infrastructure [3][4] - A planned AI park in Abu Dhabi will have a capacity of 5 gigawatts and is expected to become the largest AI park outside the US, utilizing nuclear, solar, and natural gas for power generation [3][4] - The agreement includes strict technology non-proliferation clauses, ensuring US companies lead data center operations in the region [4]

5月16日晚间，易方达基金发布重要公告，知名基金经理张坤因工作调整不再担任副总经理高级管理人员，未来将专注于投资管理工 作。 | 基金管理人名称 | 易方达基金管理有限公司 | | --- | --- | | 公告依据 | 《公开募集证券投资基金信息披露管理办法》 《让 | | | 券基金经营机构董事、监事、高级管理人员及从业 | | | 人员监督管理办法》 | | 高管变更类型 | 离任基金管理公司副总经理级高级管理人员 | | 离任高级管理人员职务 | 副总经理级高级管理人员 | | --- | --- | | 离任高级管理人员姓名 | 张坤 | | 离任原因 | 工作调整 | | 离任日期 | 2025年5月15日 | | 转任本公司其他工作岗位的说明 | 专注于投资管理工作 | 资料显示，张坤自2008年清华大学研究生毕业即加入易方达基金，从事投研工作近17年，是其主动权益投研团队的核心人员。作为易方达自 主培养的基金经理，张坤始终坚持深度研究为基础的价值发现、追求长期稳健的超额回报。 张坤管理的多只基金产品此前发布2025年一季度报告显示，这位明星基金经理在今年第一季度期间，将互联网、能源与消费作为 ...

阿联酋阿布扎比国家石油公司：宣布的战略协议有望促使美国对阿联酋能源项目的投资总额达600亿美 元。预计到2035年，阿联酋对美国能源投资的企业价值将达到4400亿美元。 ...

能源化工期权 2025-05-16 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 原油 | SC2507 | 462 | -1 ...

Core Insights - Blackstone's total market value of holdings reached $24.1 billion for Q1 2025, up from $22.0 billion in the previous quarter, representing a 9% increase [1][2] - The investment portfolio included 47 new stocks, 36 stocks were increased, 25 stocks were reduced, and 39 stocks were completely sold out [1][2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 68.8% of the total market value [1][2] Holdings Overview - The largest holding is Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP.US) with approximately 102 million shares valued at about $6.759 billion, making up 28.07% of the portfolio, unchanged from the previous quarter [2][3] - Corebridge Financial Inc. (CRBG.US) is the second-largest holding with around 61.96 million shares valued at approximately $1.956 billion, also unchanged [2][3] - Williams (WMB.US) ranks third with about 20.08 million shares valued at approximately $1.200 billion, reflecting a 5.94% increase in holdings [3][4] Sector Focus - The portfolio shows a strong inclination towards energy stocks, with significant positions in companies like Targa Resources (TRGP.US), Energy Transfer Equity LP (ET.US), and MPLX LP (MPLX.US) [3][4] - The top five purchases included SPDR S&P 500 ETF put options, CoreWeave (CRWV.US), Kinder Morgan (KMI.US), Hess Midstream (HESM.US), and Enbridge (ENB.US) [4][5] - The top five sales included Expand Energy, First Industrial Realty (FR.US), Western Midstream (WES.US), Energy Transfer (ET.US), and NextEra Energy (NEE.US) [5][6]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Duan Yongping's investment strategy reveals a shift in focus towards technology companies, with new positions in Microsoft, Nvidia, and TSMC, while reducing holdings in several other major companies like Apple and Alibaba [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Portfolio Changes - As of Q1 2025, Duan Yongping's H&H International Investment holds 11 US stocks with a total market value of $12 billion, approximately 86.3 billion RMB [1]. - New investments include Microsoft, Nvidia, and TSMC, while he increased his stakes in Pinduoduo and Occidental Petroleum [1][2]. - Significant reductions were made in holdings of Apple, Berkshire Hathaway B, Alibaba, Google C, Disney, and Moderna [1]. Group 2: Specific Stock Holdings - Apple remains the largest holding with a market value of $7.602 billion, accounting for 63.33% of the portfolio, despite a reduction of 6.640396 million shares [2]. - Berkshire Hathaway B is the second-largest holding at $1.801 billion, representing 15% of the portfolio, with a decrease of 239,800 shares [2]. - Pinduoduo is the third-largest holding, with a market value of $918 million and an increase of 525,200 shares [2]. Group 3: Insights on New Investments - Duan Yongping expressed interest in Nvidia, acknowledging the company's potential in AI, despite not fully understanding its business model [3][4]. - He views TSMC and Microsoft as strong B2B companies, indicating a late realization of their significance in the tech sector [4]. - Pinduoduo is seen as a company with future potential, although it has not yet generated significant profits [4].