周一的文章提示过大家，周二晚上公布的CPI数据将是A股突破去年国庆节后的高点3674的契机。只能说时来天地皆同力，昨晚美国7月份CPI数据不及预 期，美联储9月份降息基本稳了，甚至有降息50BP的可能，昨晚美元指数跳水，欧美股市全线上涨。 为啥美联储降息这么重要？降息意味着全球宽松周期再启动，去年美联储第一次降息是9月19日，直接降了50BP。然后就是央行、证监会等三部门在9月24 日放出政策大礼包，包括降准、降息，开启A股牛市。 如果真是牛市来了，自然是抱团时代大趋势和景气度最高的板块，那就是当下的AI算力，机构给的中际旭创、新易盛的2025年净利润分别是100亿、90亿， 明年是180亿、140亿，现在也不到30倍，别看2000多亿的市值，但算是A股最便宜的科技股了。 当然，现在的A股不能叫牛市来了，应该说是"牛二"阶段到了，我在7月份的时候连写两篇文章，提出A股再次进入机构抱团牛，现在印证了。 我当时的逻辑是，通缩后期一般会有大牛市。在通缩前期，经济基本面恶化，股市一般会进入熊市，但为了治理通缩，都会持续降息和放水，市场上的钱会 越囤积越多。钱总是会寻找增值，开始肯定是债券等安全资产受益，但随着股市跌到 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 文/新浪财经上海站 陈秀颖 8月12日晚，鹏鼎控股（002938.SZ）发布公告称，决定重新聘任沈庆芳先生为首席执行官（CEO），原 CEO林益弘转任总经理，分管采购及其他具体职能。 这意味着沈庆芳在卸任两年（其于2023年4月卸任CEO）后重执帅印，而林益弘不再一人兼任CEO和总 经理职务。 | 工作圆历 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2017/05 - 至今 | | 麒鼎控股(深圳股份有限公司 董事 | | 2017/05 | l है के | 鹏鼎控股(深圳)股份有限公司 董事长 | | 2017/05 | - 至今 | 鹏鼎控股(深圳)股份有限公司 法定代表人 | | 2017/05 | - 至今 | 麒鼎控股(深圳)股份有限公司 战略委员会委员 | | 2017/05 | - 至今 | 麒鼎控股(深圳)股份有限公司 战略委员会召集人 | | 2006/06 | - 至今 | 强鼎科技控股股份有限公司 董事长 | | 2017/05 | - 2023/04 | 麒鼎控股(深圳)股份有限公司 提名委员会 ...

Core Viewpoint - Pengding Holdings reported strong financial performance for H1 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by demand in the PCB industry and advancements in AI and mobile devices [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue for H1 2025 reached 16,375,291,624.65 CNY, a year-on-year increase of 24.75% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,233,023,885.96 CNY, up 57.22% compared to the same period last year [2][3]. - Net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1,148,508,663.87 CNY, reflecting a growth of 51.9% year-on-year [2][3]. - Operating cash flow for the period was 4,276,933,506.84 CNY, an increase of 53.29% from the previous year [3]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both 0.53 CNY, a rise of 55.88% [3]. Asset and Equity Position - Total assets as of the end of H1 2025 were 44,434,986,384.52 CNY, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year [3]. - Net assets attributable to shareholders were 31,233,625,412.88 CNY, down 2.73% from the previous year [3]. Industry Growth - The global PCB industry experienced a year-on-year growth of 12.1% in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, supported by strong demand for AI and high-speed network applications [3]. - The total market value of the PCB industry is projected to reach 79.128 billion USD in 2025, representing a 7.6% increase [3]. - The PCB market is expected to expand from 73.5 billion USD in 2024 to 94.6 billion USD by 2029 [3]. Product Development and Market Position - As the largest FPC product manufacturer globally, Pengding Holdings holds over 30% market share in FPC products, leveraging its extensive experience in R&D, design, and production [4]. - The company is focusing on high-end HDI products to penetrate the AI server market and is actively pursuing product certifications with well-known manufacturers [4]. - Pengding Holdings is expanding its collaboration with cloud server manufacturers on AI ASIC-related products to enhance competitiveness in the AI server market [4]. Capacity Expansion - The company is accelerating investments in high-end HDI and SLP products, with the first phase of its Thailand factory completed in May 2025, primarily serving AI servers and optical communication sectors [5]. - The second phase of the Thailand factory construction has also commenced, supporting the company's full-chain layout in AI cloud, edge, and terminal applications [5].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2,564,546,348.28 yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.43%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.96% to 195,849,763.7 yuan [2][4] - Total assets reached 8,468,050,642.4 yuan, a 5.26% increase compared to the previous year, while net assets attributable to shareholders saw a minimal increase of 0.01% [3][4] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 2,564,546,348.28 yuan, up from 2,147,370,990.70 yuan in the same period last year, marking a growth of 19.43% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 195,849,763.7 yuan, down from 222,453,160.53 yuan, reflecting a decline of 11.96% [4] - The net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 183,779,370.54 yuan, a decrease of 12.79% from 210,731,909.09 yuan [4] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 190,186,846.05 yuan, down 41.53% from 325,298,206.94 yuan [4] - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both 0.62 yuan, down 11.43% from 0.70 yuan [4] - The weighted average return on equity was 4.40%, a decrease of 0.89% from 5.29% [4] Industry Trends - The PCB industry continued to grow in the first half of 2025, driven by demand in sectors such as servers/data storage, communication infrastructure, and automotive [5] - According to Prismark, the global PCB industry is projected to reach a value of 78.563 billion USD in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [5] - By 2029, the global PCB industry value is expected to grow to 94.661 billion USD, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.2% from 2024 to 2029 [5] Product Development and Market Expansion - The company has a broad application range, focusing on data centers and servers, automotive electronics, and consumer electronics, while also expanding into energy, power, and industrial control medical sectors [5][6] - In the data center and server sector, the company has enhanced its market competitiveness by developing high-performance PCB products that meet the high demands for performance and reliability [5][6] - In the automotive electronics sector, the company is focusing on high-end products related to electric and intelligent vehicles, establishing long-term partnerships with international automotive brands and Tier 1 suppliers [6] - The consumer electronics sector is experiencing innovation driven by AI, with the company quickly entering the AI personal computer (AIPC) market and optimizing its product structure to meet evolving customer needs [7]

方正证券发布研报称，2024年，全球PCB总产值达735.65亿美元(约合人民币5252亿元)，同比增长 5.8%。随着AI应用加速演进，PCB行业将进入新的增长周期，高端产品存在供需缺口。建议关注PCB设 备多领域布局的全球龙头企业大族激光（002008）(002008.SZ)，高价值量环节钻孔设备/耗材：鼎泰高 科（301377）(301377.SZ)、中钨高新（000657）(000657.SZ)，曝光设备：芯碁微装(688630.SH)，电镀 设备：东威科技(688700.SH)，SMT设备：凯格精机（301338）(301338.SZ)。 方正证券主要观点如下： 2024年全球PCB专用设备市场规模约为70.85亿美元(约合人民币506亿元)，2020-2024CAGR约为4.9%， 预计到2029年达到107.65亿美元市场规模(约合人民币769亿元)，以8.7%的CAGR增长。PCB加工包括钻 孔、曝光、检测、电镀、压合、成型、贴附等环节。其中，钻孔、曝光是设备价值量占比最高的两个环 节，占比分别为20.7%、17%，其次，检测设备种类繁多，占比15%，成型设备、电镀设备占比8.7%、 7.2% ...

Macro Insights - The US July CPI shows a moderate increase, with core CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations, alleviating concerns about significant inflation rebound [2] - The core CPI year-on-year increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, slightly above the expected 3.0% [2] - The market anticipates a 96% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, influenced by the manageable inflation pressures from tariffs [2] Fixed Income Insights - AI is becoming a central theme in the market, impacting investment, employment, and asset prices, leading to a structural divergence in stock performance [3] - The report suggests that AI could enhance labor productivity, potentially leading to a scenario where stock market performance outpaces GDP and employment growth [3] - Long-term, AI may alleviate debt pressures but could also exacerbate income and opportunity disparities [3] Energy Sector Insights - National electricity generation in July is estimated to increase by 3.2% year-on-year to 924.9 billion kWh, with coal, hydro, and renewable energy sources contributing differently [4] - The report anticipates a positive growth momentum for thermal power generation despite some pressure from hydroelectric output recovery [4] Banking Sector Insights - The introduction of a personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy aims to stimulate domestic demand, with a 1% annual subsidy rate [5] - Major banks are responding positively to the subsidy policy, indicating a favorable outlook for structural opportunities in the banking sector [5] Company-Specific Insights - Wanchen Group (300972 CH) is accelerating the acquisition of minority shareholder equity, with stable earnings in April and May, leading to an upgraded target price of 212.66 CNY and a "Buy" rating [7] - Guizhou Moutai (600519 CH) reported a 9.2% year-on-year increase in total revenue for H1 2025, indicating a solid foundation for achieving its annual growth target [11] - Pengding Holdings (002938 CH) is focusing on AI-related capacity investments, with a revenue increase of 24.75% year-on-year in H1 2025, leading to an upgraded target price of 69.2 CNY [12] - Desay SV (002920 CH) benefited from the smart driving trend, achieving a 25.25% year-on-year revenue growth in H1 2025, with a positive outlook for future growth [17] - City Development Environment (000885 CH) reported a revenue increase of 11.25% year-on-year in H1 2025, indicating stable growth in waste treatment operations [21]

Group 1 - The market showed a strong upward trend in July, driven by expectations of policy catalysts and stimulus, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high [1] - The basic investment logic based on financial report guidance was fully reflected in July, as the market focused on companies with strong performance forecasts [1] - The AI industry chain, particularly segments like optical modules and PCBs, experienced significant price increases due to strong half-year report forecasts and overseas AI companies reaching new highs [1] Group 2 - Downstream demand is being continuously revised upward, with major overseas internet cloud companies reporting capital expenditures that exceeded market expectations, indicating a positive outlook for future capital spending [2] - The demand for optical modules and PCB companies is also being revised upward, reflecting a high level of industry prosperity [2] - Concerns regarding AI computing power demand and tariffs have eased significantly in July, leading to notable price increases in the overseas computing power industry chain [2] Group 3 - The domestic substitution trend has shown some performance improvement, with expectations for a recovery in the expansion pace of domestic wafer fabs in the second half of the year [3] - The storage sector has seen price increases, driven by high demand in the server storage market and supply constraints in the consumer market [3] - The market's focus on technology growth sectors has increased, with opportunities identified in both overseas export chains and domestic semiconductor industry chains [3]

Macro News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration are soliciting opinions on the draft implementation regulations of the Value-Added Tax Law, which clarifies definitions of taxable transactions, taxpayers, and the scope of VAT [1][2] - As of August 11, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 1,021.79 billion yuan, an increase of 9.07 billion yuan from the previous trading day, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's financing balance reached 983.90 billion yuan, an increase of 7.66 billion yuan, bringing the total financing balance of both markets to 2,005.69 billion yuan, surpassing 2 trillion yuan for the first time in ten years [2] Industry News - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's lithium division has issued an initiative to strengthen industry self-discipline and prevent "involution" competition, promoting healthy development in the lithium industry by enhancing cooperation and maintaining market stability [4] - A research team led by Xu Cao from the Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology has published a paper proposing a crop-robot collaborative design concept, successfully creating the world's first intelligent breeding robot, "GEAIR," which significantly reduces breeding costs and time [5] - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the e-commerce logistics index for July reached 112.0 points, a 0.2 point increase from the previous month, marking a new high for the year [6] Sector Insights - CITIC Securities reports that the suspension of operations at the Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium's mine will reduce domestic lithium supply by 8,300 tons per month, leading to a supply shortage and a significant increase in lithium prices [7] - CITIC Construction Investment highlights the ongoing support policies for the robotics industry, recommending sectors such as sensors and flexible hands, as the domestic robotics market continues to thrive [7] - China International Capital Corporation notes that high overseas demand for computing power is driving growth in the PCB market, with expectations for the AI PCB market to reach $5.6 billion by 2025 and $10 billion by 2026 [7][8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][9]. Core Insights - The PCB industry is experiencing continuous expansion driven by the demand for AI computing infrastructure, with major companies like Huadian and Shenghong investing significantly in new projects [3]. - The expansion is primarily focused on high-layer HDI boards, leading to increased requirements for equipment quantity and pricing [3]. - The exposure segment of PCB equipment, which accounts for 10%-15% of the total equipment value, is seeing higher demand for advanced exposure equipment due to stricter requirements from high-end PCB boards [3]. - The drilling segment, which constitutes about 25% of PCB equipment value, is benefiting from the increasing complexity of PCB designs, with a shift towards laser drilling technology [3]. - The PCB drill needle market is experiencing growth due to the surge in AI demand, prompting manufacturers to expand production capacity [3]. - The electroplating segment, which represents around 10% of PCB equipment value, is seeing increased demand for high-end equipment as AI applications require thicker copper and finer lines [3]. Summary by Sections PCB Expansion - Continuous expansion in the PCB sector is driven by AI computing needs, with significant investments from leading companies [3]. Exposure Equipment - Exposure equipment is critical for high-end PCB production, with domestic companies improving their capabilities to meet rising demands [3]. Drilling Equipment - The drilling process is evolving with a shift towards laser technology, driven by the need for smaller apertures and tighter tolerances in PCB manufacturing [3]. Drill Needles - The demand for high-quality drill needles is increasing, with manufacturers ramping up production to meet the needs of upgraded AI server PCBs [3]. Electroplating Equipment - The demand for advanced electroplating equipment is growing, particularly for high-end applications in the AI sector [3].

Group 1 - The global PCB market size is expected to decline by 15% to $69.517 billion in 2023 due to global inventory pressure and interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation, but it is projected to enter a new growth cycle in 2024 with a total output value of $73.565 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [1] - In 2024, the output value and production of 18+ layer multilayer boards are expected to grow by 25.2% and 35.4% respectively, making them the fastest-growing products in the PCB segment [2] - The demand for HDI boards is driven by applications in AI servers, high-speed networks, and satellite communications, leading to an 18.8% year-on-year growth in HDI [2] Group 2 - The global PCB equipment market is projected to reach approximately $7.085 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of about 4.9% from 2020 to 2024, and is expected to grow to $10.765 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 8.7% [3] - Drilling and exposure processes account for the highest value proportions in PCB processing equipment, at 20.7% and 17% respectively, followed by testing equipment at 15% [3] - The demand for high-precision boards like HDI is increasing, which raises the requirements for processing technology and equipment, particularly in drilling, exposure, and electroplating [4]