消费·掘金 年报一季报总结电话会议 20250504 传统内需市场在当前宏观环境下存在底部反转机会。通过比较 2025 年的贸易 战与 2018 年的贸易战，可以看到两者在市场选择上的相似性。在 2018 年贸 易战后，市场于 2019 和 2020 年全面布局消费，包括传统消费与新能源车技 术路线落地。如果映射到当前环境，本次宏观政策取向对消费的正面影响远好 于 2018 年，同时路径也较为相似。因此，我们看好创新消费在后续复苏叠加 良好政策取向下实现成长。从今年三月社零数据超预期以及四月地产数据回稳 来看，如果五六月份能够持续证实一季度相关宏观数据企稳，那么下半年市场 可能会更为重视传统消费及白马公司的布局。特别是具备结构性提价能力的板 块和公司值得重点关注。此外，从去年（2024 年）第四季度到今年（2025 年）第一季度，新消费报表端逐渐超预期，估值空间已经打开，而很多新消费 公司的估值已达到较高水平，因此只要传统消费公司的报表端稍微改善，其上 涨逻辑将更加通畅。 食品饮料板块的表现如何？有哪些子赛道值得关注？ 食品饮料板块整体分化明显，其中许多子赛道相对传统，如白酒、啤酒、乳制 品和调味品等。偏传统 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [3]. Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing high growth in performance, with significant profitability in Q1 2025 despite a downward price trend starting in Q4 2024 [1][2]. - The overall financial health of the industry is improving, with a notable reduction in the asset-liability ratio and strong operating cash flow [1][24]. - The supply of pigs is expected to rebound in the short term, while medium-term capacity continues to decline, indicating a cautious approach to long-term asset investment by pig farming companies [1][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming: Performance Improvement and Continuous Operations - The pig farming industry maintained high profitability, with a total revenue increase of 2.53% year-on-year in 2024, and a significant recovery in net profit to 30.68 billion yuan [1][13]. - Operating cash flow for 14 listed pig farming companies reached a historical high of 74.77 billion yuan in 2024, with Q1 2025 continuing to show strong performance at 13.29 billion yuan [24][30]. - Inventory levels for listed pig farming companies increased to approximately 96.89 billion yuan by the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a 4.03% year-on-year growth [31]. 2. Post-Cycle: Recovery in Pig Farming and Beneficiaries - The feed and animal health sectors are showing signs of recovery, with animal health revenue reaching 17.56 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.06% [43]. - The feed sector's revenue in 2024 was 261.65 billion yuan, down 8.31% year-on-year, but profitability improved significantly with a net profit of 7.84 billion yuan [43]. 3. Poultry: Stable Revenue and Profitability - The poultry farming sector reported a revenue of 72.91 billion yuan in 2024, with a remarkable year-on-year increase in net profit to 2.95 billion yuan [67]. - The fixed assets of four major white-feathered chicken companies reached 20.33 billion yuan by the end of 2024, indicating a slowdown in long-term asset growth [68].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The agriculture industry achieved a revenue of 11,498.20 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose to 466.39 billion yuan, an increase of 806.55% [4][14] - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue of 2,706.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.79%, and a net profit of 133.13 billion yuan, up 795.07% year-on-year [4][14] - The profitability indicators showed improvement, with the gross profit margin at 12.91% in Q1 2025, up 5.74 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin at 5.16%, an increase of 6.18 percentage points year-on-year [4][18] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The livestock sector saw significant year-on-year profit growth, with poultry farming, livestock farming, feed, and pet food sectors showing net profit increases of 1,109.96%, 389.01%, 230.88%, and 75.67% respectively in 2024 [5][20] - In Q1 2025, the net profit growth rates for feed, poultry farming, livestock farming, aquaculture, animal health, and pet food sectors were 962.42%, 588.35%, 254.62%, 117.28%, and 21.27% respectively [5][20] Weekly Perspective - The swine sector shows low-positioning value, with the recovery of profitability and consumer demand boosting the sector. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [6][24] - The feed sector benefits from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices. Recommended stocks include Haida Group and New Hope Liuhe [6][24] - The pet sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers, with recommended stocks including Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Petty Co. [6][26] Market Performance - During the week of April 28 to May 2, the agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.08 percentage points, with the agriculture index down 0.56% [7][27] - The feed sector led the gains among sub-sectors, with individual stocks like Ruip Biotech, New Sai Co., and Daodaoquan leading the market [7][32] Price Tracking - As of May 2, the average price of live pigs was 14.84 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price of white strip meat rose by 0.11 yuan/kg to 19.2 yuan/kg [8][37] - The average price of beef increased to 69.03 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.74% rise [8][43] - The average price of bass rose to 35.30 yuan/kg, up 3.82% from the previous week [8][48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The industry experienced a decline in revenue in 2024 but saw a significant increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue growth of 6.79% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 795.07% [4][14] - The livestock sector, particularly poultry and pet food, demonstrated high growth rates in net profit, with poultry farming seeing a 1109.96% increase in 2024 and a 588.35% increase in Q1 2025 [5][20] - The report highlights the recovery of the pig cycle and the upward trend in pig prices, suggesting a favorable outlook for the livestock sector [6][24] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - In 2024, the agriculture industry achieved a revenue of 11,498.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.68%, while net profit reached 466.39 billion yuan, an increase of 806.55%. In Q1 2025, revenue was 2,706.77 billion yuan, up 6.79%, and net profit was 133.13 billion yuan, up 795.07% [4][14] Weekly Viewpoint - The pig sector shows low valuation and potential for recovery, supported by consumption revival. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and others. The feed sector benefits from strong domestic and overseas demand [6][24] Market Performance - During the week of April 28 to May 2, the agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.08 percentage points, with the agriculture index down 0.56% [7][27] Price Tracking - As of May 2, the average price of live pigs was 14.84 yuan/kg, a slight decrease from the previous week. The average price of piglets was 36.88 yuan/kg, also down slightly [8][37]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong growth in revenue and net profit, indicating a robust performance in the pet food industry, supported by effective brand marketing and channel expansion [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 625 million yuan, up 45.68% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.48 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.82%, and a net profit of 204 million yuan, which is a 37.68% increase [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.27%, an increase of 5.43 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 gross margin was 41.56%, up 0.42 percentage points [1]. Cost and Investment - The sales expense ratio for 2024 was 20.1%, an increase of 3.45 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 17.81%, up 0.52 percentage points [1]. - The company invested 437 million yuan in new construction projects, including a 100,000-ton pet food project and a factory in Thailand, with progress at 35.4% and 52.9% respectively [2]. Brand and Market Position - The company has established a strong brand presence in the domestic market with its core brands "MaiFuDi" and "FuLieJiaTe" [2]. - The company has increased its marketing efforts through diversified online platforms, leading to a significant rise in brand awareness [2]. Sales Channels - Sales from third-party platforms (including Alibaba, Douyin, and JD.com) reached 1.969 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 37.72% of total revenue, a year-on-year increase of 59.33% [2]. - Direct sales channels generated 1.415 billion yuan, representing 27.10% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 52.69% [2]. Industry Outlook - The pet food sector is expected to maintain high growth rates, with leading companies like the one in focus likely to benefit from the Matthew effect, expanding their advantages and achieving better performance [2]. - According to Deloitte's report, the compound annual growth rates for pet staple food, nutritional products, and snacks are projected to reach 17%, 15%, and 25% respectively by 2026 [2]. Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a leading player in the pet food industry, with expectations of continued revenue growth driven by its brand, products, and channel advantages [2]. - Forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 780 million yuan, 990 million yuan, and 1.26 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.96 yuan, 2.48 yuan, and 3.15 yuan [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong revenue and profit growth in 2024, driven by both domestic and international business expansion in the pet food sector [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.15% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 394 million yuan, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 68.89% [1]. - The company's net profit excluding non-recurring items was 386 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 71.74% [1]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 1.101 billion yuan, up 25.41% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 91.155 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.13% [1]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items for Q1 2025 was 88.261 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 63.75% [1]. Group 2: Brand and Market Development - The company is a leading player in the pet food industry, with a dual-driven strategy of domestic sales and international expansion, which is expected to support continued rapid growth [2]. - Domestic brand business saw accelerated growth, with revenue reaching 1.414 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.26% [2]. - The company capitalized on its brands "WANPY," "TOPTREES," and "ZEAL" to capture the domestic mid-to-high-end market, with staple food product revenue increasing by 91.85% [2]. - The gross margin for domestic operations improved to 35.18% [2]. - Internationally, the company generated 3.051 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 14.62% [2]. - The OEM/ODM business remained stable, with successful expansion in the European market, contributing to new growth opportunities [2]. - The company has established production bases not only in China but also in the U.S., New Zealand, Canada, and Cambodia, enhancing its global strategic layout [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its strong performance, with projected net profits of 440 million yuan, 550 million yuan, and 710 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]. - Corresponding EPS estimates are 1.49 yuan, 1.87 yuan, and 2.42 yuan for the same years, with PE ratios of 32.54, 26.01, and 20.07 [2].

Core Viewpoint - 2024 is projected to be the most challenging year in the past decade for the industry, with many entrepreneurs facing significant difficulties in sustaining their businesses [3][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - 90% of small and medium-sized enterprises in China do not survive beyond three years, indicating a high failure rate in the entrepreneurial landscape [6]. - The pet food industry has a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) that ranks second among consumer goods, with significant growth potential as pet ownership continues to rise in China [15]. - The industry concentration ratio (CR10) for the pet food sector was only 24% in 2022, suggesting a relatively low level of market maturity compared to other sectors like infant formula, which has a CR10 of 70% [18][17]. Group 2: Entrepreneurial Journey - The company was founded in 2020 during the pandemic, with the founder emphasizing the importance of committing fully to entrepreneurship without a fallback plan [23]. - Initial challenges included logistical issues and the need to learn e-commerce from scratch, leading to significant hands-on experience in operations [30][25]. - The first product launch was met with unexpected success, driven by organic marketing through podcasts and social media, resulting in a loyal customer base [31][48]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The pet industry is perceived as a booming market, attracting many new entrants, but existing players often struggle with intense competition and market fragmentation [38]. - The company chose to focus on high-quality pet food, despite pressures to enter more lucrative segments like snacks or lower-end products, driven by a commitment to quality and consumer trust [40][41]. - The company has faced challenges in scaling and marketing, particularly in a landscape where traditional advertising methods are becoming less effective [49][56]. Group 4: Strategic Insights - The company has adopted a cautious approach to product development, launching only ten SKUs in five years, prioritizing quality and transparency in sourcing [41][46]. - The marketing strategy has evolved to include partnerships with pet influencers and adapting to changes in social media platforms, particularly the shift towards live streaming and short-form content [55][57]. - The company recognizes the importance of building a brand over time, emphasizing that true brand status requires a solid user base and market penetration [62][68]. Group 5: Challenges and Reflections - The founder reflects on missed opportunities for aggressive growth during favorable market conditions, noting that a more risk-tolerant approach could have led to greater scale [70][71]. - The competitive landscape is increasingly characterized by price wars, which threaten the sustainability of quality-focused brands [75][80]. - The company aims to maintain its commitment to quality and ethical practices, despite the pressures of a rapidly changing market environment [86][87].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2]. Core Insights - In April, the breeding profits improved, and the pet food export volume increased by 20% in Q1 [1]. - The agricultural index outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 3.3% from early April to April 29, while the CSI 300 fell by 2.89% [5][12]. - The domestic pet food market continues to expand, with a Q1 export value increase of 12% [5]. Summary by Sections Price Indicators and Agricultural Performance - In March, the CPI was down 0.1% year-on-year, with a 46% reduction in agricultural trade deficit [7]. - The total market value of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector was 12,849.69 billion yuan, accounting for 1.38% of the total A-share market value [12]. Breeding Profits and Pet Food Exports - The breeding profits for pigs improved in April, with the price on April 23 being 15.09 yuan/kg, down 7.2% from the end of 2024 [5][31]. - The number of reproductive sows was 40.39 million, a 1% decrease from the previous quarter [34]. - The pet food market reached a scale of 107.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 12.7% from 2017 to 2024 [5]. Investment Recommendations and Stock Pool - Focus on leading pig farming companies with strong cost control and healthy financial conditions, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [5]. - The report suggests monitoring the poultry industry, particularly the yellow-feathered chicken sector, due to potential price increases [5]. - Attention is also drawn to feed industry leaders like Haida Group and animal vaccine companies such as Reap Bio and Kexin Bio [5].

Core Insights - The company reported significant revenue and profit growth for 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenues of 4.47 billion and 1.1 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 19.2% and 25.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 390 million and 90 million yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 68.9% and 62.1% [1] Revenue Growth - The company's main grain product revenue surged by 92% in 2024, increasing its share of total revenue by 9 percentage points to 25% [2] - Domestic revenue reached 1.4 billion yuan in 2024, up 30% year-on-year, while overseas revenue was 3.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 15% increase [2] Profitability Improvement - The company's gross margin improved by 2 percentage points to 28% in 2024, further rising to 32% in Q1 2025, driven by optimized product structure and lower raw material prices [2] Brand Development and Market Expansion - The company has established a three-brand matrix for domestic market growth, with key products including the "Wanpi Xiaojin Dung" series, leading baked grain products, ZEAL dried food, and staple canned food [2] - The company is actively expanding its overseas presence, with products sold in 73 countries and significant growth in European customers; North American market demand is high, with expansions of factories in the U.S. and Canada expected to be completed in 2026 and the second half of 2025, respectively [2] Marketing Strategy - The company has a clear marketing strategy for its three main brands, utilizing diverse channels such as influencer marketing, social media, and partnerships with national media to enhance brand recognition [3] - Sales expense ratios for 2024 and Q1 2025 were 11.1% and 11.4%, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.8 percentage points and 1 percentage point year-on-year [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.34 billion, 6.458 billion, and 7.68 billion yuan, with net profits of 452 million, 595 million, and 710 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 37.74, 28.66, and 24.02 [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Guibao Pet Industry Overview - The pet food industry in China is experiencing significant trends of domestic substitution and consumption upgrade, with mid-to-high-end domestic brands like Fleigat and Xianlang performing well in the 2024 Double Eleven sales, indicating successful domestic substitution [2][3] - The industry is projected to maintain high double-digit growth, particularly in online channels, with Tmall's growth exceeding 15% and Douyin's growth around 60% in 2024 [3] Key Trends for 2025 - Keywords for the pet food industry in 2025 include "cat economy" (refined feeding and multi-cat households), increase in small dog ownership (demand for premium food), and aging pets (increased demand for customized food for elderly cats and dogs, which is typically priced higher) [2][4][5] Company Performance - Guibao Pet has excelled due to historical advantages (capitalizing on internet channel benefits and collaboration with JD), comprehensive capabilities (marketing, product strength, supply chain), and advantages from its own supply chain in the staple food sector [2][6] - The company has established a full price range brand matrix, with Maifudi as the main brand and Fleigat as the high-end brand, leading to accelerated revenue and profit growth since its listing [2][7] Financial Highlights - In 2024, Guibao Pet's self-owned brand business revenue reached 3.545 billion yuan, a nearly 30% year-on-year increase, accounting for nearly 70% of total revenue [4][11] - Maifudi's growth reached 100%, with expectations for Fleigat and goat milk meat series to perform well in 2025, and the buff series achieving a 150% year-on-year increase during the Double Eleven sales [4][11] Competitive Advantages - The company's own supply chain provides a unique competitive advantage, allowing for differentiated market branding and rapid response to new product development compared to light-asset models of emerging brands [9] - Guibao Pet's strong supply chain capabilities and brand replicability have led to success in both low-end and mid-to-high-end markets, with significant growth in direct sales, which accounted for 37.55% of revenue in 2024 [10] Profitability and Market Position - The staple food category is crucial for Guibao Pet, with revenue from staple foods reaching 2.7 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 50% of total revenue [12] - The company has seen a net profit margin increase to nearly 12% in 2024, further rising to 13.82% in Q1 2025, driven by the successful high-end product lines [13][14] Future Market Expectations - The pet industry is expected to exceed a scale of 100 billion yuan, with Guibao Pet projected to capture over 20% market share, indicating significant potential for growth in market value and profits [15]