2026.02.03 本文字数：2034，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 在经历了上周五的恐慌抛售后，贵金属市场本周一进入巨震模式。以白银为例，周一经历了超过8%的 双向波动，尾盘收复日内大部分失地，铂金和钯金期货均较早盘低位反弹近10%。 在盘中跳水逾5%后，纽约商品交易所2月交割的COMEX期货震荡回升，收复4700美元，该合约上周五 曾重挫11%，创1980年以来最差单日表现。上周四，黄金连续期货合约盘中触及每盎司5626.80美元的 高点，目前较该高点已下跌17%。 机构分析称，美国总统特朗普提名沃什为下任美联储主席后，美元指数反弹，推升贵金属计价成本，触 发第一轮抛售。与此同时，拥挤交易集中平仓：金银（尤其白银）长期吸引专业与散户资金，形成 "极 端拥挤、单边"持仓；价格抛物线式上涨后，上周五大量投资者同时止损离场，流动性枯竭放大跌幅。 部分分析师仍认为贵金属的牛市行情将持续，并预计年内金价将再创历史新高。瑞银大宗商品分析师乔 瓦尼・斯陶诺沃称："我们预计，黄金价格将在今年晚些时候站上每盎司 6200美元上方，再创历史新 高。"摩根大通周一宣布，预计年末金价将达到每盎司 6300 美元 ...

盘前要闻 1、企稳信号初现！黄金白银双双反攻，杠杆抛售潮或近尾声 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 周二，现货黄金高开，截至发稿黄金重回4800美元，日内涨超3%。现货白银向上突破83美元，日内涨 超5%。贵金属前两个交易日的暴跌让人惶恐，现货黄金上周五创下逾十年来最大单日跌势。分析指 出，量化基金去杠杆化、杠杆ETF和趋势跟踪策略头寸调整所引发的强制抛售潮，其主体部分可能已基 本释放。 2、护航万亿级赛道，十部门联合发布低空经济标准体系建设指南 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 市场监管总局会同中央空管办等十部门联合发布《低空经济标准体系建设指南(2025年版)》。到2027 年，低空经济标准体系基本建立，基本满足低空经济安全健康发展需求。到2030年，低空经济领域标准 超过300项 ，结构优化、先进合理、国际兼容的低空经济标准体系基本形成，为低空经济安全健康发展 提供有力支撑。 3、中共中央、国务院：要建成以首都为核心的世界一流都市圈 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 中共中央、国务院发布关于《现代化首都都市圈空间协同规划(2023-2035年)》，规划指出，首都都市圈 是优化提升和服务保障首都功能的重要地区，要围绕完善首 ...

Market Overview - The report highlights significant fluctuations in global assets following the hawkish nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump, leading to a strong market reaction [2][8] - The short-term market may be overpricing the Fed's hawkish shift, with expectations of interest rate cuts likely preceding any balance sheet reduction [8] Economic Policy Insights - The report suggests that the Fed's ability to successfully reduce its balance sheet will depend on structural changes in fiscal policy and the real economy, rather than solely on the Fed's intentions [8] - It emphasizes that the core issue remains how inflation will be managed, potentially through fiscal discipline or production reforms [8] Stock Market Implications - The report anticipates increased volatility in the U.S. stock market, with a shift towards a more balanced investment style [8] - Key variables affecting the stock market include earnings validation and inflation trends, with a focus on the performance of the S&P 500 [8] Commodity Market Analysis - The report maintains that the bullish logic for gold, silver, and commodities remains intact, despite short-term volatility [8] - It notes that the speculative sell-off in precious metals was triggered by geopolitical signals and the Warsh nomination, impacting industrial metals as well [8] Sector Performance - The report identifies sectors such as electric grid equipment and liquor as outperformers in the recent market, while precious metals and industrial metals have seen significant declines [1][8] - It highlights the resilience of supply-demand dynamics in non-ferrous metals, despite recent liquidity shocks [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant rebound, with all three major indices rising, including a more than 1% increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 approaching historical highs [1][10] - Semiconductor stocks surged, particularly in the storage chip sector, with SanDisk rising nearly 17% and Western Digital increasing over 10% [1][11] - Asian markets also opened strongly, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index up over 2% and South Korea's KOSPI index up over 3% [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector Insights - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for DRAM prices in Q1 2026, predicting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 90%-95%, significantly higher than previous market expectations [2][11] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.7%, with notable gains in storage chip companies such as SanDisk (up over 15%) and Western Digital (up nearly 8%) [11][12] - Analysts suggest that "hot money" moving out of precious metals and cryptocurrencies is seeking new investment opportunities, with storage chips likely to attract this capital due to strong fundamentals [11] Group 3: DRAM Pricing Predictions - Goldman Sachs' analysts predict a substantial increase in traditional DRAM pricing, with expectations of a 45%-50% increase in Q4 2025, followed by a further 90%-95% increase in Q1 2026 [3][11] - TrendForce has adjusted its forecast for PC DRAM contract prices in Q1 2026 to a quarter-on-quarter increase of 105%-110%, exceeding Goldman Sachs' previous estimate of 80%-90% [12] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The ISM reported that the US manufacturing PMI rose sharply from 47.9 to 52.6 in January, marking the first expansion in nearly a year and the fastest growth rate since 2022 [4][13] - The new orders index reached 57.1, a significant increase from the previous 47.7, indicating robust demand and production growth [5][14] - Employment index recorded at 48.1, above expectations, suggesting a slowdown in job losses within the manufacturing sector [6][14]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The RatingDog manufacturing PMI for January rose to 50.3%, marking a three-month high, while the official manufacturing PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics fell to 49.3% [2][3] - The divergence between the RatingDog and official PMI indicates an uneven economic recovery, with some provinces lowering their growth targets and emphasizing high-quality development [3] Group 2: Local Government Land Sales - Local government land sales revenue is projected to decline by 14.7% in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of double-digit declines, with a total decrease of 52.3% compared to the peak in 2021 [4] - The disparity in land sales revenue across provinces highlights the challenges faced by local governments, with some regions experiencing growth while most continue to struggle [4] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - International gold prices fell sharply, dropping over 6% to below $4,550 per ounce, while silver prices also saw significant declines [5][6] - The recent downturn in gold and silver prices reflects a broader market correction, influenced by speculative capital and the potential nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair [5][7] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Market Performance - In January, the AITO brand led the new energy vehicle market with over 40,000 units delivered, while competitors like Xiaomi and Li Auto faced declines in their sales figures [8][9] - The overall market for new energy vehicles is under pressure, with rising costs for raw materials and a stabilization in market penetration rates [9] Group 5: AI Application Investments - Alibaba has committed 30 billion yuan to promote its AI application, joining other tech giants in a competitive "red envelope war" during the Spring Festival [10][11] - The shift towards AI applications among major internet companies indicates a strategic pivot, although the effectiveness of such promotional tactics remains uncertain [11] Group 6: SpaceX Satellite Deployment Plans - SpaceX has applied to launch up to 1 million satellites, aiming to create a revolutionary "orbital data center system" to support advanced AI applications [12] - The financial projections for SpaceX suggest a potential revenue of $15-16 billion by 2025, with plans for a significant IPO that could surpass previous records [12] Group 7: Stock Market Overview - The stock market experienced a significant downturn, with major indices dropping over 2% amid a broader sell-off in commodities and concerns over global market risk [13][14] - The market's volatility is attributed to external factors and a shift in investor sentiment as the Chinese New Year approaches [14]

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced a significant shock due to panic selling of gold and silver, triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which altered market expectations regarding monetary policy [1][4]. Group 1: Kevin Warsh's Nomination - Kevin Warsh, known for his "hawkish" stance, was nominated for the Federal Reserve Chair, which requires Senate approval [1]. - His nomination reversed previous market expectations that the new chair would yield to political pressure for continued monetary easing, which had previously supported rising gold and silver prices [1][5]. - Warsh's policy proposals include a combination of "balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts," which aligns with the White House's desire for lower interest rates while maintaining the Fed's independence [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reaction - The market's reaction to Warsh's nomination was severe, with significant adjustments in commodity markets, indicating underlying market fragility [4][5]. - The core logic of market trading shifted dramatically, as fears of aggressive monetary easing due to political pressure were replaced by expectations of tighter monetary policy, leading to a sell-off in gold and silver [5]. - Warsh's hawkish policies are expected to negatively impact safe-haven assets like gold, as they suggest a tightening of dollar liquidity and a strengthening of the dollar's credibility [5][6]. Group 3: Volatility and Market Structure - The extreme trading conditions prior to Warsh's nomination amplified market volatility, with gold and silver prices at historical highs and a buildup of speculative long positions [6]. - Following the nomination, profit-taking, technical breakdowns, and algorithmic trading contributed to significant intraday price fluctuations, marking a historical level of volatility [6].

Group 1: Gold Market - On February 3, spot gold reached $4,750, increasing by 2.02% during the day [1] - Gold prices have been on a downward trend for three consecutive trading days, nearing the December 31 bottom of $4,319.37, and at one point fell below the 50-day moving average, approaching the 100-day moving average [4] - By the end of trading in New York, spot gold fell by 4.54%, closing at $4,671.58 per ounce, remaining in a downward state throughout the day [5] Group 2: Silver Market - Spot silver reached $80 per ounce, with an increase of over 1% during the day [1] - By the end of trading in New York, spot silver dropped by 6.73%, closing at $79.4438 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 1.56%, closing at $79.760 per ounce [7] Group 3: Other Metals - COMEX copper futures fell by 1.49%, closing at $5.8345 per pound, with a low of $5.5640 per pound earlier in the day [8] - LME copper closed down by $266, at $12,892 per ton, while LME nickel fell by $1,127, closing at $16,827 per ton, and LME tin dropped by $5,364, closing at $46,591 per ton [9]

Core Viewpoint - A customer complaint has emerged regarding the inability to withdraw silver bars from the Baiyin Group despite a significant increase in silver prices on January 29, leading to concerns about the company's customer service and operational transparency [1] Group 1: Customer Experience - A customer, referred to as Ms. Xiao, reported that her father purchased silver bars from Baiyin Group through television shopping several years ago [1] - On January 29, when silver prices surged, Ms. Xiao attempted to withdraw her silver bars but was informed by customer service that withdrawals would not be possible until the end of April [1] - Different customer service representatives provided conflicting information, with one stating that the timeline for withdrawals was uncertain due to workers being on holiday [1] Group 2: Company Operations - The Baiyin Group's customer service was reportedly difficult to reach, as multiple attempts to contact their 400 customer service line resulted in no connection to a live representative [1]

Core Insights - The market has shifted from a "worst-case scenario" to a phase of "waiting for validation" as U.S. stock markets experience a broad rally, with the Dow Jones index rising over 1% [2] - Economic data, particularly the ISM manufacturing index for January at 52.6, significantly exceeded market expectations of 48.5, indicating a shift from contraction to expansion and marking the highest level since 2022 [2] - This positive economic data alleviates three major market fears: concerns over a "hard landing," the stabilization of profit bottoms, and the Federal Reserve's ability to control inflation without rushing to intervene in the market [3] Market Reactions - The rise in U.S. stock markets has restored "missing confidence," which is crucial for mitigating the current global market downturn [2] - Gold and silver markets began to rebound after passive selling subsided, indicating a temporary recovery rather than a return of bullish sentiment [3] - The current market calm does not imply that issues have been resolved; rather, it suggests that problems are being postponed for later resolution [3] Future Outlook - The market is currently in a "repair phase," transitioning from panic to recovery, but caution is advised as misjudging the market's direction could be dangerous [3] - There is a call for deeper insights into global markets, suggesting that assumptions about January's direction continuing into February may be misleading [3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility following a panic sell-off, with silver showing over 8% price swings and other metals like platinum and palladium rebounding nearly 10% from early lows. Analysts are divided on the market outlook, with many believing the current downturn is temporary but suggesting that bottom-fishing may need to wait [1][2]. Market Performance - After a drop of over 5%, COMEX futures for February delivery recovered to $4,700, following an 11% plunge last Friday, marking the worst single-day performance since 1980. Gold futures hit a high of $5,626.80 per ounce but have since fallen 17% from that peak [2]. - UBS analysts predict gold prices will exceed $6,200 per ounce later this year, while JPMorgan forecasts a year-end price of $6,300 per ounce. Deutsche Bank maintains a $6,000 per ounce prediction based on sustained investor demand [2]. Market Dynamics - Short-term market volatility is expected to remain high, with the potential for further sell-offs due to ETF and options position liquidations triggering cascading futures market sell-offs. The risk of additional rounds of selling remains elevated, as crowded and one-sided trading positions have not been substantially reversed [3]. - Citigroup warns that gold valuations have reached extreme levels, with global gold expenditure as a percentage of GDP soaring to 0.7%, the highest in 55 years. A return to historical norms could pose a risk of significant price declines [3]. Influencing Factors - Future trends in the precious metals market will depend on the monetary policy path under the new Federal Reserve chair, the movements of the dollar and real interest rates, ETF fund flows, and central bank gold purchasing patterns [4]. - The recent sell-off resulted in an evaporation of $8 trillion in market value for gold and silver, highlighting the liquidity issues that arise when large amounts of capital attempt to exit the same type of "safe-haven" trades simultaneously [4]. Investment Behavior - The sell-off has revealed pressure on holdings in gold, while silver's performance has exposed liquidity pressures in the market. The focus should shift from "what to buy" to "what type of buyer you are" to avoid blind trading during market turmoil [5][6]. - Buyers sensitive to price, typically long-term holders, should consider transactions from a value and asset allocation perspective, while liquidity-sensitive holders, such as those using futures or options, are driven by volatility and risk management rules [6]. Market Insights - The recent precious metals crash serves as a stress test for the market, demonstrating that even traditionally safe assets can become volatile when everyone relies on them for hedging. The true "safe signal" for the market will be a decrease in volatility rather than a price rebound [6].