Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the potential concerns regarding "fiscal retreat" in the second half of the year, highlighting the implications for economic performance and the need for extraordinary policy measures to counteract any downturn [3][4][5]. - "Fiscal retreat" refers to a significant drop in fiscal expenditure growth in the latter half of the year compared to the first half, particularly in years where the fiscal budget is not adjusted post-implementation [3][12]. - There is a possibility of a fiscal retreat this year, with projections indicating a potential decline in fiscal expenditure growth to between -0.4% and 2.1%, marking the lowest growth rate since 2022 [4][13]. Group 2 - Despite the potential for fiscal retreat, the actual risk of it negatively impacting the economy may be limited, as adjusted fiscal expenditure growth is estimated to remain robust, between 4.1% and 6.7% [5][15]. - The article emphasizes that even without extraordinary policy measures, the fiscal support for the economy in the second half may not be less than that in the first half, aligning with economic growth targets of approximately 4.7% to 4.8% [5][15]. - The analysis includes a breakdown of fiscal expenditure adjustments, excluding non-economic driving components and incorporating new policy financial tools to enhance fiscal capacity [16][19]. Group 3 - The July fiscal data indicates a significant rebound in public fiscal revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year [20][21]. - Tax revenue has shown consistent positive growth for four consecutive months, with notable increases in sectors such as equipment manufacturing, where tax revenue grew by over 33% [20][21]. - On the expenditure side, public fiscal spending increased by 3% in July, ending a two-month decline, with a notable focus on social welfare and infrastructure spending [33][34]. Group 4 - The article notes a narrowing of land sales revenue growth, which has implications for broader fiscal revenue, while special bonds and new special debts have supported high growth in fiscal expenditure [42][43]. - Government fund income growth has slowed to 8.9% in July, primarily due to reduced land sales revenue growth of 7.2% [42][43]. - The article highlights the importance of monitoring future policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which could impact fiscal revenue positively [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue in China showed a slight year-on-year growth of 0.1% in the first seven months of 2023, marking the first positive growth this year, driven by improved economic conditions and various policy measures [1][7]. Revenue Breakdown - Total public budget revenue reached 13.58 trillion yuan, with tax revenue at 11.09 trillion yuan, down 0.3%, and non-tax revenue at 2.49 trillion yuan, up 2% [1]. - Domestic value-added tax revenue was approximately 4.26 trillion yuan, up 3%, indicating stable growth in industrial and service sectors [2]. - Corporate income tax revenue was about 3.06 trillion yuan, down 0.4%, reflecting pressure on corporate profits [2]. - Import goods value-added tax and consumption tax totaled 1.03 trillion yuan, down 6.1%, consistent with weak import trends [2]. - Personal income tax revenue was 927.9 billion yuan, up 8.8%, linked to stable growth in resident income and improved tax administration [2]. Monthly Trends - From April onwards, monthly tax revenue has shown continuous positive growth for four months, with July seeing a significant increase of 5% [4][6]. - The cumulative decline in tax revenue narrowed from 1.2% in the first half to 0.3% in the first seven months [6]. Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing and modern services showed positive tax revenue growth, with specific increases of 33% in railway and aerospace equipment, 10.1% in computer and communication equipment, and 12.7% in scientific research services [6]. Government Expenditure - Total public budget expenditure reached 16.07 trillion yuan, up 3.4%, with significant increases in social security (9.8%) and education (5.7%) spending [10]. - The overall fiscal expenditure, including government bonds, grew by 8.9% compared to the previous year, indicating strong fiscal support for economic growth [10].

Core Viewpoint - In the current situation, some enterprises are adopting a cautious approach or even retracting their strategies, while others are actively promoting strategic upgrades, focusing on technological innovation, digital transformation, international expansion, new business development, and green low-carbon initiatives [1][29]. Group 1: Current Development of Private Enterprises - A survey conducted by Beijing Dacheng Enterprise Research Institute involved 58 private entrepreneurs from 13 provinces, focusing on the development environment, international influences, operational conditions, challenges, and strategic responses of private enterprises [2]. - The introduction of the Private Economy Promotion Law and the convening of private enterprise forums reflect the government's commitment to enhancing the development environment for private enterprises, significantly boosting their confidence [3][5]. - The legal framework for private enterprises has seen historic progress, establishing a system that promotes fair competition, investment, financing, and innovation, thereby reducing uncertainties in long-term strategic planning [5][6]. Group 2: Improvement in Business Environment - The efficiency of government services has improved, with streamlined approval processes and enhanced support for intellectual property protection, benefiting enterprises significantly [6][7]. - Market access restrictions have been reduced, allowing more private enterprises to participate in major infrastructure projects, and financing support has increased, with broader access to funding and lower costs [7][8]. - Despite improvements, challenges remain in policy implementation, with some local governments exhibiting inaction and inconsistencies in administrative enforcement [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Performance and Challenges - There is a notable divergence in the performance of different industries, with traditional sectors like manufacturing and real estate facing significant challenges, while emerging sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and AI are experiencing growth [13][14]. - Approximately 20% of surveyed enterprises reported growth in both revenue and profit, while nearly 30% experienced declines, particularly in real estate and traditional consumer sectors [14]. - Issues such as weak domestic demand, intense competition, and cash flow pressures continue to hinder enterprise development, particularly in the real estate sector [16]. Group 4: International Environment and Its Impact - The uncertain international environment poses challenges for trade, investment, and supply chain security, but it also drives Chinese enterprises to innovate and enhance their competitive capabilities [17][18]. - Trade tensions and tariffs have compressed profit margins for exporters, leading to increased costs and logistical risks [18]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations from Entrepreneurs - Entrepreneurs suggest accelerating the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law and enhancing legal protections for private enterprises [20][21]. - There is a call for improved fair competition mechanisms and equal treatment for private enterprises in mixed-ownership economies [22]. - Recommendations include optimizing the financing environment to alleviate cash flow pressures and enhancing labor relations to mitigate disputes [23][24]. Group 6: New Strategic Directions for Private Enterprises - Enterprises are focusing on innovation-driven growth, increasing R&D investments, and developing high-value products to enhance market competitiveness [30][31]. - Expanding into international markets and diversifying risks by targeting regions with lower geopolitical risks is a priority for many enterprises [33]. - Digital transformation is being accelerated to improve management efficiency and operational capabilities, with a focus on creating innovative ecosystems [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance in July 2025 demonstrates resilience and vitality despite external pressures and adverse weather conditions, with steady growth in production, consumption, and investment, alongside stable employment and prices [7][10][20]. Economic Performance Overview - The industrial output in July showed a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 8.4%, indicating strong industrial growth [7][51]. - The service sector also performed well, with a production index growth of 5.8% in July, driven by increased tourism and related services [7][15]. - Social retail sales increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, with a notable 4% growth in goods retail [8][14]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% from January to July, with significant contributions from equipment updates and manufacturing investments [8][45]. Trade and Employment - The total import and export volume increased by 6.7% year-on-year in July, reflecting the resilience of foreign trade despite a complex international environment [8][31]. - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2%, indicating a steady employment situation [9][20]. New Growth Drivers - High-tech manufacturing saw a 9.3% increase in output, with significant growth in sectors like integrated circuits and new energy vehicles [10][38]. - The digital economy is rapidly developing, with a 8.4% increase in digital product manufacturing in July [10][38]. Consumer Trends - Consumer demand is being stimulated by policies such as the "old for new" consumption initiative, leading to increased sales in home appliances and cultural products [8][14]. - The service sector is experiencing growth, particularly in tourism and digital services, with a notable increase in transportation and cultural service indices [15][56]. Investment Landscape - Investment in manufacturing is growing, with a 6.2% increase in manufacturing investment from January to July, particularly in textiles and automotive sectors [45][46]. - Infrastructure investment is also on the rise, with water management and information transmission sectors seeing significant growth [46][47]. Policy Impact - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies is supporting production and investment growth, with a focus on stabilizing employment and market expectations [10][23]. - The government's commitment to deepening reform and opening up is enhancing the resilience and vitality of the economy [21][32].

Core Points - The Tokyo stock market indices experienced a significant rise, with the Nikkei 225 index closing up by 0.77% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index up by 0.43%, both reaching historical highs [1][2] - The market opened slightly higher and showed a trend of fluctuating upward movement, driven by profit-taking from some investors and increased participation from others attracted by relatively undervalued blue-chip stocks [1] - The depreciation of the yen against the dollar positively impacted export-oriented stocks, particularly in the automotive sector, with shares of Toyota, Honda, and Nissan rising [1] - Semiconductor equipment manufacturers like Tokyo Electron and Lasertec faced downward pressure due to investor concerns over potential tariffs on semiconductors proposed by Trump [1] Sector Performance - The Nikkei index rose by 336.00 points, closing at 43714.31 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index increased by 13.28 points to 3120.96 points [2] - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw gains, with service, transportation machinery, and precision machinery sectors leading the increases [2] - Conversely, nine sectors, including banking, marine transportation, and electric and gas utilities, experienced declines on the same day [2]

Report Title - 7-month economic progress with real estate investment under pressure - A panorama of China's economic data in July 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the first half of the year, the economy grew steadily. In July, industrial growth continued, with the added value of large-scale industries increasing by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year-on-year. The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year in July (unchanged from the previous month) and 0.2% month-on-month (narrowed by 0.2% compared to the previous month). The CPI remained flat year-on-year in July (0.1% in June) and increased by 0.4% month-on-month ( -0.1% in June), ending the consecutive month-on-month decline [2]. - Domestic demand still needs improvement, and external uncertainties are increasing. In July, the economy advanced steadily. The "anti-involution" optimized the supply chain and accelerated industrial upgrading. Service consumption supported the overall consumer market. Externally, trade protectionism and geopolitical risks intertwined, and continuous vigilance was needed for the impact of commodity supply chain disruptions and new US tariff policies on the second half of the year [4]. Summary by Directory Macro Events - On August 15, National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in July, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with production and demand continuing [6]. Growth: Steady Growth - In July, industrial growth continued. The added value of large-scale industries increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year-on-year. By category, the mining industry increased by 5.0% year-on-year, manufacturing by 6.2%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 3.3%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and the high-tech manufacturing industry by 9.3%, 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points faster than the overall large-scale industries respectively [10]. Inflation: Month-on-Month Improvement - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year (unchanged from the previous month) and 0.2% month-on-month (narrowed by 0.2% compared to the previous month). The purchase price decreased by 4.5% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. From January to July, the PPI decreased by 2.9% cumulatively. The CPI remained flat year-on-year in July (0.1% in June) and increased by 0.4% month-on-month ( -0.1% in June), ending the consecutive month-on-month decline. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months, reaching a new high since March 2024 [19][39]. Investment: Marginal Slowdown - From January to July 2025, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year (2.8% previously), and the month-on-month decline continued ( -0.63% in July). The investment growth rate of the secondary industry slowed down to 8.9% (manufacturing investment +6.2%), and the investment in the tertiary industry decreased by 2.3% (more affected by real estate) [53]. Production: Downstream Improvement - In the first half of 2025, the added value of large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year. The manufacturing industry increased by 7.0%. The downstream demand improved significantly, but the weakness of upstream raw material industries and export pressure were constraints [59]. Consumption: Structural Differentiation - In July 2025, the growth rate of the consumer market slowed down. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year (5.0% previously). The single - month retail sales in July increased by only 3.7% year-on-year, reaching a new low for the year. Service consumption showed resilience, while the growth of online channels slowed down [69]. Real Estate: Investment Under Pressure - From January to July, the national real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.8% compared to January - June. The sales side remained weak, but policy - driven structural optimization accelerated inventory reduction [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the market is focusing on pricing the rate cut amplitude. Inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [3][4][13]. - China's "dual discount interest" policy has been implemented to boost domestic demand, and the probability of a domestic interest rate cut in the third quarter has further decreased [5][6]. - China's economic data in July was affected by multiple factors, but it is still likely to achieve the annual economic growth target of 5% [8][10][12]. - In the short - term, geopolitical risk premiums have temporarily ended, but there are still persistent impacts. A - shares are in a bull market pattern, but the index may experience short - term corrections. Bond prices will be in a low - level shock state [15][16]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Macroeconomic Observation 1.1 Impact of Tariffs on Inflation and Fed Rate Cut Expectations - US CPI in July was slightly lower than expected, but core CPI reached a new high for the second time this year. PPI exceeded expectations, with a 0.9% month - on - month increase, the largest in three years, and a 3.3% year - on - year increase, the highest since February [3]. - The impact of tariffs on commodity prices is gradually emerging, and the upward pressure on commodity inflation will continue to accumulate. The price of the service industry in July significantly contributed to inflation, and the pressure on CPI to rise in the coming months is increasing [3][4]. - Although inflation data shows signs of an uptick, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September. The market is focusing on pricing the rate cut amplitude, and inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [4]. 1.2 Implementation of the "Dual Discount Interest" Policy to Expand Domestic Demand - The "dual discount interest" policy of personal consumer loan discount interest and service industry business entity loan discount interest has been launched, which forms a synergy to stimulate consumption with other policies. It helps improve the efficiency of fiscal funds [5]. - In the future, the policy may continue to explore the synergy between fiscal funds and financial resources, and the weight of structural tools and special fiscal policies may increase. The probability of a domestic interest rate cut in the third quarter has further decreased [5][6]. 1.3 China's Economic Situation in July - China's economic data in July showed a contraction in both supply and demand, with a more obvious slowdown in domestic demand. Consumption recovery momentum weakened marginally, investment remained weak, and financial data also showed slow demand - side repair [8][10][11]. - Although China's economy is affected by multiple temporary factors in the short - term, it is still likely to achieve the annual economic growth target of 5% [12]. 1.4 Next Week's Key Points - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the market is pricing the rate cut amplitude. Inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [13]. - The short - term geopolitical risk premium from the US - Russia summit has ended, but there are still persistent impacts. A - shares are in a bull market pattern, but the index may experience short - term corrections. Bond prices will be in a low - level shock state [15][16]. 2. Domestic Key Events and Important Economic Data - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to maintain liquidity, promote reasonable price increases, and release consumption potential. This week, the central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 4149 billion yuan [17]. - The "dual discount interest" policy has been introduced, with a 1 - percentage - point annual discount interest rate. The personal consumer loan discount interest policy has a cumulative discount interest cap of 3000 yuan per borrower, and the service industry business entity loan discount interest policy has a maximum loan scale of 1 million yuan per household [17]. - China's deflation pressure eased slightly in July. CPI was flat year - on - year, PPI was negative for 34 consecutive months, but the month - on - month decline narrowed. Core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, the highest in 17 months [17]. - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The "national subsidy" funds of 138 billion yuan were issued, and the automobile sales volume increased by 14.7% year - on - year [17][18]. - From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year. The sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed overall [18]. - China and the US suspended the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days. As of the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6% year - on - year, and M0 increased by 11.8% year - on - year [18]. 3. Overseas Key Events and Important Economic Data - In the US, the PPI in July increased significantly, with a 3.3% year - on - year increase. CPI was flat compared to the previous month, slightly lower than expected, while core CPI reached a five - month high, higher than expected [19]. - After the release of the US CPI data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose to 90.1%. Trump nominated E·J·Anthony as the next director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and expanded the list of candidates for the Fed chairman [19]. - The EU plans to formulate the 19th round of sanctions against Russia and provide more military assistance to Ukraine. The Japanese central bank is under pressure to abandon an inflation indicator to pave the way for an interest rate hike [19]. - Trump said he would not impose tariffs on gold. The US Treasury Secretary said that the trade team will meet with China in the next two or three months. The US - Russia summit has not reached an agreement but is close [20]. 4. Next Week's Key Data/Events - On August 18, the US will release the NAHB housing market index for August. - On August 20, China will release the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) for August, and the eurozone will release the CPI and core CPI year - on - year and month - on - month for July, as well as the preliminary PMI values for August. - On August 21, the US will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16, the Markit manufacturing, service, and composite PMI preliminary values for August, and the year - on - year total of existing home sales in July. - From August 22 to 23, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held (to be determined). [21]

Core Insights - The World Bank highlights that weak labor demand in Ghana's production sector is a major challenge for the job market [1] - Ghana has experienced minimal structural transformation over the past decade, remaining predominantly reliant on agricultural labor [1] - Employment opportunities in high-productivity sectors such as manufacturing and services are significantly limited, forcing many workers into low-productivity and low-income jobs [1] - There is a shortage of middle-level job opportunities, exacerbated by factors such as inefficient regulation, trade barriers, and inadequate infrastructure [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in July 2025 was generally below expectations, with the three major indicators declining in resonance, showing a weak recovery pattern of "stable industrial production, under - expected consumption, and intensified investment differentiation", indicating insufficient domestic effective demand [1][7] - The reasons for the under - expected economic data include seasonal factors, the weakening marginal effect of policy dividends, the failure of production - side repair to be effectively transmitted to the demand side, and the continued drag of the real estate sector on the economy [2][8] - For the bond market, the economic data in July confirmed the fundamental main line of "weak demand + low inflation", and the risk of a trend - based correction in the bond market was generally controllable. In the short term, attention should be paid to the changes in risk - preference assets such as equities and commodities, as well as the effect of policies like fiscal interest subsidies on private - sector financing demand [2][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 7 - month Economic Data: Structural Pressures under Weak Recovery - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries was 5.7%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to July was 6.3%. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 3.7%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.6%. Among them, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 12.0%, that of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was 3.2%, and that of manufacturing investment was 6.2% [3][7] - The reasons for the under - expected economic data are seasonal factors, the weakening marginal effect of policy dividends, the failure of production - side repair to be effectively transmitted to the demand side, and the continued drag of the real estate sector on the economy. The resilience of external demand in July exceeded expectations, but there was still uncertainty in external demand in the second half of the year [2][8][9] 3.2 Industrial Production Maintains Resilience, High - tech Chain Continues to Lead - In July, industrial production still had resilience. The year - on - year growth rate of added value of large - scale industries was 5.7%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to July was 6.3%. The year - on - year growth rate of the service production index in July was 5.8%, slightly down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [3][11] - In terms of industries, the year - on - year growth rates of the ferrous metal processing and transportation equipment industries in July increased significantly compared with the previous month, while those of the automobile, metal products, and food industries decreased. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.4% year - on - year, and that of the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 9.3% year - on - year, respectively 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points faster than the overall large - scale industrial added value [15] - In terms of specific products, the output growth rates of emerging products such as 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles were remarkable, with year - on - year growth rates of 24.2%, 24.0%, and 17.1% respectively [15] 3.3 Consumption Growth Slows, Policy Dividend Effect Weakens Marginally - In July, the growth rate of social retail sales slowed down. The total retail sales of social consumer goods were 387.8 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.7%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, the lowest increase this year and lower than market expectations [17] - On one hand, the driving effect of subsidy policies weakened. The year - on - year growth rates of home appliances, automobiles, furniture, and cultural office supplies supported by policies declined significantly compared with the previous month, and the year - on - year growth rate of automobiles turned negative. On the other hand, the weak catering consumption reflected insufficient consumer confidence. The year - on - year growth rate of catering revenue above the quota increased slightly to 1.1%, still at a relatively low level this year [4][20] - Recently, the Ministry of Finance and other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", with the central finance bearing 90%. The effect of this policy on credit scale and social retail sales growth remains to be observed [4][22] 3.4 Manufacturing Stabilizes, Infrastructure Supports, Real Estate Hits Bottom - From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.6%, 1.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June. The investment structure showed a three - track operation pattern of "manufacturing stabilization, infrastructure support, and real estate drag" [23] - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 6.2%. The "Two New" work promoted the rapid growth of equipment purchase investment. From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of investment in equipment, tools, and utensils was 15.2%, 13.6 percentage points higher than the overall investment. However, in the short term, corporate investment motivation might decline, and the demand for entity credit was still insufficient [25][26] - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was 3.2%. The construction progress of major traditional infrastructure projects remained relatively fast, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment was expected to play a "ballast stone" role in the third quarter. However, the high - temperature and rainy weather in July affected outdoor construction and dragged down the growth rate of infrastructure investment [25][26] - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 12.0%, continuing to be deeply adjusted. The decline in real estate sales area and sales volume widened. In the second half of the year, real estate relaxation policies still needed to be actively implemented, such as further relaxing purchase restrictions in core cities, lowering housing loan interest rates, reducing down - payment ratios, and increasing real estate acquisitions [26][27]

Retail Data Overview - In July 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month, matching expectations, but down from a revised 0.9% in June[2] - Core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) rose by 0.3% month-on-month, also below the previous value of 0.8%[2] Economic Implications - The decline in July retail sales indicates a weakening consumer sentiment, with year-on-year growth dropping from 4.4% in June to 3.9% in July, marking the second-lowest value since March 2025[7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July saw a significant increase to 3.3% year-on-year, up from 2.3%, suggesting that businesses are passing on tariff costs to consumers, which may further dampen consumer spending[7] Interest Rate Outlook - The decline in retail sales and weak employment data suggest a continued downward trend in the U.S. economy, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025[8] - Market expectations indicate a 92.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September 2025, with a total of two cuts anticipated for the year[10] Sector Performance - In July, durable goods such as automobiles (+1.6%) and furniture (+1.4%) showed strong performance, while non-durable goods like groceries (-1.7%) and electronics (-0.6%) declined[9] - Service consumption, particularly in restaurants and bars, decreased by 0.4%, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns[10]