Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing short-term pressure due to pre-holiday sentiment, but there are structural opportunities in specific sub-sectors [2] - The global non-ferrous metals industry is expected to enter a "recovery cycle with supply constraints" from 2026 to 2027, with copper and aluminum prices shifting from supply constraints and loose liquidity in 2026 to demand recovery in 2027 [2] - The supply growth of electrolytic aluminum is projected to be only 1.7% in 2026, with a supply gap of over 800,000 tons; electrolytic copper supply growth is 2.4% while demand growth is 3.3%, indicating a shift from surplus to shortage [2] Group 2 - Tungsten is expected to see a continued supply-demand shortage due to China's mining control policies, leading to sustained price increases from 2026 to 2027 [3] - Rare earth permanent magnets are experiencing tightening supply-side integration, with improving demand expectations for exports, indicating a fundamental improvement [3] - Cobalt is projected to face a global shortage due to supply reduction policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with strong upward momentum in the short term [3] Group 3 - Lithium is benefiting from the rising demand for energy storage batteries and domestic supply disruptions, potentially at the bottom of its cycle [3] - Nickel is expected to clear supply issues from the second half of 2026 to 2027 due to Indonesia's quota policies, with prices likely to rise if economic recovery boosts stainless steel demand [3] - Magnesium is gaining traction in the lightweighting sector of new energy vehicles due to its higher cost-effectiveness compared to aluminum, indicating improved industry sentiment [3] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metals ETF (512400) closely tracks the CSI Shenyin Wanguo Non-Ferrous Metals Index, which selects 50 listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, China Aluminum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jin Xun Resources (03636) has seen a stock price increase of over 6%, currently trading at 38.64 HKD with a transaction volume of 11.93 million HKD, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of the latest update, Jin Xun Resources' stock has risen by 5.46% to 38.64 HKD [1] - The trading volume reached 11.93 million HKD, reflecting active investor interest [1] Group 2: Shareholder Activity - On February 10, shareholders deposited stocks into Huatai Hong Kong, with a market value of 208 million HKD, representing 13.04% of the total shares [1] Group 3: Industry Position - According to Frost & Sullivan data cited in the prospectus, by December 31, 2024, Jin Xun Resources is projected to rank fifth among Chinese cathode copper producers based on production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia [1] - The company is noted as the only Chinese company in the top five producers within these two jurisdictions [1] Group 4: Corporate Name Change - Jin Xun Resources announced a change in its stock abbreviation from "Jin Xun Co." to "Jin Xun Resources," aligning the abbreviation with the company's name and strategic development goals [1] - This change is intended to support the company's main business development and is not expected to have any adverse effects on operations [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Analyze the current macro - core contradictions and the price fluctuations of each metal based on fundamental changes when studying the Spring Festival market of non - ferrous metals [2][3] - Most non - ferrous metal varieties have higher post - festival volatility than pre - festival volatility, and the years with amplified fluctuations are mainly 2016, 2017, 2021, and 2023 [12] - In 2026, if there are no sudden events during the Spring Festival holiday, the prices of non - ferrous metals will likely maintain the pre - festival fluctuation logic, and high volatility is expected after the holiday [20][21] - Copper, aluminum, and tin can buy out - of - the - money 1 - 2 strike call options. Industrial customers can sell put options or buy up - and - out accumulator options according to their inventory and procurement needs [1][21] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Spring Festival Price Fluctuation Logic of Non - ferrous Metals - The price fluctuations of non - ferrous metals during the Spring Festival are mainly due to three types of contradictions: the split between macro and micro, different fundamentals of each variety, and the game between Chinese demand and overseas supply [2] - When analyzing the Spring Festival market, first qualitatively analyze whether the current macro - core contradiction is a unilateral trend or two - way contradiction, and then quantitatively analyze the price changes and fluctuations of each variety based on fundamental changes [3] 2. Fluctuation Situations of Annual Spring Festival Price Changes - **Historical Market Review**: Different metals had different performances and driving factors around the Spring Festival in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2023. For example, copper had a bull - market start in 2016, and zinc led the rise of basic metals in 2016 due to a shortage of concentrates [10][11] - **Volatility Characteristics**: Most varieties have higher post - festival volatility than pre - festival volatility, and the years with amplified fluctuations are mainly 2016, 2017, 2021, and 2023. For example, the average volatility of SHFE copper after the Spring Festival is higher than that before the Spring Festival [12] - **Price Change and Opening Situation**: The price changes and opening situations of different metals around the Spring Festival vary. For example, in 2016, SHFE copper opened with a gap down of more than 2% after the Spring Festival, following the sharp decline of LME copper. The average jump ratio, opening - higher probability, average post - festival first - day change, and LME following probability of zinc, aluminum, tin, and nickel are also calculated [18] 3. 2026 Non - ferrous Metals Sector Festival Strategy - **Market Environment**: The Spring Festival in 2026 is late, and the market may digest macro - economic indicators before the festival. The prices are likely to maintain the pre - festival logic if there are no sudden events during the holiday, and the game between short - term weak supply - demand and long - term strong expectations should be noted after the holiday [20] - **Volatility and Trend Degree**: As of February 9, the volatility of non - ferrous metals has significantly declined. The trend strengths of copper, aluminum, and tin exceed 50%, while those of zinc and nickel are below 50%, indicating that the upward trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are still good, and zinc and nickel tend to fluctuate [21] - **Option Strategies**: Copper, aluminum, and tin can buy out - of - the - money 1 - 2 strike call options. Industrial customers with large pre - festival inventories can sell put options, and those worried about price increases during post - festival restocking can buy up - and - out accumulator options [1][21] - **Case of Selling Put Options**: Taking a copper inventory as an example, selling an out - of - the - money put option can obtain a premium to compensate for the cost of raw materials in case of price decline after the festival [22] - **Introduction to Buying Up - and - Out Accumulator Options**: This option strategy is suitable for scenarios such as daily low - price spot procurement, willingness to purchase more when the price drops, monthly average price settlement, and mild upward or fluctuating market conditions [25]

截至2026年2月11日 10:58，大宗商品ETF(510170)上涨2.49%，冲击四连涨+四连阳！盘中换手2.63%， 成交1573.30万元。成分股中国巨石上涨9.99%，恒力石化上涨6.65%，厦门钨业上涨6.57%，北方稀土， 华友钴业等个股跟涨。 华源证券指出，库存累积，铜价短期或迎来降波震荡。日前中国有色金属工业协会表示研究将铜精矿纳 入国家储备，这或将利好铜中长期价格。中长期看，铜矿资本开支不足，供给端扰动频发，铜矿供需格 局或将由紧平衡转向短缺，同时铜冶炼在"反内卷"背景下利润周期有望见底，叠加美联储进入降息周 期，铜价有望突破上行。 大宗商品ETF(510170)，场外联接(A类：257060；C类：015577)。 风险提示：以上所有信息仅作为参考，不构成投资建议，一切投资操作信息不能作为投资依据。投资有 风险，入市需谨慎。 大宗商品ETF(510170)具备行业均衡配置优势，前五大行业分别为有色金属、煤炭、基础化工、石油石 化、钢铁，实现对大宗商品核心产业链的全面覆盖，能有效捕捉大宗商品轮涨机会，风险分散能力突 出，成长空间可期。值得一提的是，上证大宗商品股票指数50只成分股全部来自 ...

宏观层面，今年票委、克利夫兰联储主席哈马克称，当前货币政策处于良好区间，美联储或长期维持利 率不变。目前美国通胀仍偏高，今年通胀率或接近3%，需有力证据证明价格持续回落。CME观察工具 显示，美联储3月维持利率不变的概率达80.4%。美国商务部季节性调整数据显示，12月整体零售销售 额环比零增长，远低于市场预期的0.4%，同比仅增2.4%。疲弱的零售销售数据与不及预期的就业成本 指数叠加，进一步强化了市场对美国经济动能放缓的预期。 基本面，供应上，近期电解铝运行产能变化不大，产量小幅增长；需求上，当前处于季节性消费淡季， 且春节临近，铝价波动不定，部分企业提前放假，铝加工企业开工率持续下滑，下游接货意愿低迷，需 求疲软。铝锭社库持续累积，当前库存高于近两年同期，对铝价上行形成压制。不过长期来看，铝供应 增量有限，需求长期向好，供需缺口预期强化，沪铝长期驱动未变。 总体来看，宏观情绪不定，基本面驱动力弱，国内春节休假氛围浓，下游消费意愿偏差、备库近完成， 且库存累积，今现铝或下跌。 长江铝价alu.ccmn.cn短评：美指续跌支撑金属估值但油股表现低迷施压，隔夜伦铝收平；国内春节休假 氛围浓，下游消费意愿偏差、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of dividend strategies as a stable investment approach amidst market volatility, highlighting the "Dividend Three Heroes" as a framework for long-term investment planning [1]. Group 1: Dividend Strategy Overview - The "China Securities Dividend Quality ETF" focuses on high-quality companies with solid fundamentals, excluding banks, and aims for a balance between dividend yield and growth potential [3][5]. - The index prioritizes sectors such as pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and non-ferrous metals, showcasing a "value growth" characteristic that has historically outperformed mainstream dividend indices [5][6]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The "China Securities Dividend Quality Total Return Index" has shown a total return of 588.87% with an annualized return of 17.97% since its inception, indicating strong performance compared to other indices [6]. - The annualized volatility and maximum drawdown of the "China Securities Dividend Quality Total Return Index" are relatively controlled, suggesting a favorable risk-return profile [6][10]. Group 3: Comparison with Other Indices - The "China Securities Dividend Index" includes 100 stocks with high cash dividend yields and consistent dividend payments, outperforming benchmark indices for six consecutive years since 2020 [8][10]. - The "Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index" offers a higher dividend yield of 6.83% compared to the "China Securities Dividend Index" at 5.07%, indicating a potentially better value proposition in the current market [14][13]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The article suggests a diversified approach to dividend investing, combining core defensive positions with growth-oriented and low-volatility options to navigate market fluctuations effectively [19][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, under the influence of geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors [2][4][5] - It also provides insights into the stock market (A - shares, H - shares) and the bond market, suggesting potential trends and investment opportunities [47][48] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tensions between the US and Iran keep the Brent crude price volatile in the range of $68 - 70, with high geopolitical risk premiums expected [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical situations drive the market. High - sulfur fuel oil may face pressure if geopolitical risks ease, while low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by overseas refinery supply and European heating demand [22] - **Asphalt**: The market shows a supply - demand dual - weak pattern, and its price is mainly influenced by crude oil trends, with potential support for the cracking spread [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated. With the US retail sales data and focus on non - farm payrolls, short - term volatility is decreasing, and a wait - and - see approach before the festival is recommended [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated narrowly. Before the festival, the position and trading volume are expected to shrink, and post - festival prices may first be pressured by inventory accumulation and then rebound based on demand expectations [4] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum and its related products like casting aluminum alloy, alumina, etc., face different situations. For example, aluminum has inventory increase and adjustment pressure, while alumina has a supply - surplus outlook [5][6][7] - **Zinc**: In a downward - volatility adjustment, with weakening consumption and supply - demand imbalance, the overall rebound is under pressure, but short - term high - level oscillation is expected [8] - **Lead**: With mixed signals of supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost line [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel rebounds with dull trading, and stainless steel has increasing inventory and weak market confidence [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices showed a positive - line oscillation. Attention is on the post - festival supply - demand changes during the peak season [11] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It has a weak rebound with dull trading. The inventory structure is complex, and short - term uncertainty is high [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures oscillate downward with light trading. The market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend due to factors such as supply - demand and the approaching festival [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices fall below 8400 yuan/ton. Supply may increase after the holiday, and demand is expected to be weak, so short - term prices may remain weak [14] - **Other Chemicals**: Various chemicals like polypropylene, plastic, PVC, etc., have different market trends based on supply - demand relationships, production capacity, and seasonal factors [27][28][29] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean & Related Products**: The USDA report is neutral - slightly bearish, but with export expectations, the US soybean may maintain a relatively high - level oscillation [36] - **Corn**: The national sales progress is 61%. Before the festival, the market is quiet, and after the festival, prices may oscillate weakly [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pig**: Spot prices continue to decline. There is a risk of post - festival supply pressure, and long - term prices may have a low point next year [40] - **Egg**: Some futures contracts hit new lows. There is upward repair power in the first half of 2026, and a long - position strategy can be considered after the holiday [41] - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is slightly bearish, and the pre - festival Zheng cotton is expected to oscillate. Attention is on post - festival inventory changes [42] - **Sugar**: International and domestic production situations vary, and short - term sugar prices face pressure [43] - **Apple**: Futures prices oscillate. The market focus is on demand, and attention is on the de - stocking speed [44] Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation. The market may continue to repair this week, with potential structural rotation [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures oscillated narrowly, with limited upward and downward space. A short - term strong trend may continue until the festival, and curve - related trading opportunities are recommended [48]

Market Overview - On February 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.37%[3] - The total trading volume on February 10 was 2.12 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 150 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - The media, home appliance, and coal sectors saw significant gains, while real estate, food and beverage, and agriculture sectors experienced declines[1] - Major inflows of capital were observed in the film and television, IT services, and publishing sectors, while outflows were noted in photovoltaic equipment, military electronics, and batteries[3] Market Sentiment - Market strength weakened compared to Monday, reflected in reduced gains and trading volume[1] - The rise in media and entertainment stocks is attributed to the Seedance 2.0 event and the pre-Spring Festival timing, indicating a short-term speculative nature[1] Investment Strategy - Given the market's recent adjustments, a shift away from short-term thinking is advised, focusing on opportunities post-holiday in sectors like technology, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals[1] - Over 60% of private equity firms prefer to hold significant positions during the holiday, with 70% optimistic about post-holiday market performance[12]

商 品 研 究 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，SMM，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 2026 年 02 月 11 日 铜：库存增加，限制价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 101,560 | -0.27% | 101730 | 0.17% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,100 | -0.64% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 207,636 | -113,998 | 565,589 | -10,639 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,249 | -2,920 | 325,000 | -1,683 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 165,939 | 8,811 | - | - ...

Report Summary - **Industry Investment Rating**: The investment rating for the tin industry is "Oscillatory adjustment" [1] Key Views - The trend strength of tin is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The range of trend strength is from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 382,000 with a daily increase of 3.33%, and the night - session closing price was 386,250 with a night - session increase of 1.06%. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 49,230 with a decrease of 1.17% [2] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 244,012, a decrease of 35,721 from the previous day, and the open interest was 32,207, a decrease of 1,418. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 460, a decrease of 42, and the open interest was 25,353, an increase of 5 [2] - The Shanghai Tin futures inventory was 6,385, an increase of 48, and the LME Tin inventory was 7,430, an increase of 400. The LME Tin注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot Data**: - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 385,700, an increase of 12,200 from the previous day. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 389,800, an increase of 17,200 [2] - The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was -156, an increase of 1; the spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 185,830, unchanged; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 5,620, a decrease of 9,980 [2] - **Industry Chain Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 371,700, an increase of 12,200. The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 375,700, an increase of 12,200 [2] - The price of 63A solder bar was 255,750, an increase of 8,000, and the price of 60A solder bar was 244,750, an increase of 7,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [2] - Shanghai has opened more than 5,200 kilometers of autonomous driving test roads and will expand the open range as needed [4] - TSMC's board approved a capital budget of $44.962 billion for the construction and upgrade of advanced process capacity [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments will accelerate the promotion and application of artificial intelligence in the field of bidding [4]