在地缘政治波动、全球货币宽松和市场避险需求高企等因素的影响下，2025年大宗商品走势分化，行情呈现"冰火两重天"。贵金属单边走强，而能源价格则 持续低迷。以下是IG分析师分享的2026年大宗商品的展望报告。黄金：2025年创纪录上涨后，涨势能否延续？ 结构性需求 黄金带着历史性涨势进入2026年——但有趣的是，这一交易似乎仍未过度拥挤。即便在2024年和2025年连续突破纪录，黄金常被描述为"超买"，却几乎从未 被贴上"过度持有"的标签。而这一差异至关重要。机构持仓仍有扩张空间，意味着此轮涨势并非由过度投机驱动，而是依托尚未达峰的结构性需求。 2024-2025年黄金涨势的很大一部分源于政策——更准确地说，是政策不确定性。美国在进入2026年之际，政府支出高企、局部通胀持续，实际收益率不断 走低。再叠加美元走弱，过去两年支撑黄金上涨的核心逻辑仍完好无损。 2025年的市场分化清晰印证了黄金对宏观经济的敏感性。6月至12月，随着实际收益率走低，黄金飙升至历史新高。这种反向关系仍是2026年黄金走势的最 大驱动因素之一。 图1：黄金vs实际收益率 各国央行仍是黄金结构性行情背后最强大的推动力之一。多个经济体的黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially commenced its closure operation on December 18, 2023, after over five years of preparation, establishing a customs supervision special area across the island and implementing a framework of "one line open, two lines controlled, and free flow within the island" [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Following the closure, the Hainan Free Trade Zone sector experienced a surge, with stocks such as Hainan Development, Hainan Haikou Group, Hainan Ruize, and Hainan Hai Pharmaceutical achieving three consecutive trading limits, and the stock of Shen Nong Seed Industry on the ChiNext board rising over 42% [1] - From December 19 to 23, the stock prices of Hainan Development, Hainan Haikou Group, Hainan Hai Pharmaceutical, and Hainan Ruize increased by over 33%, while Shen Nong Seed Industry and Kangzhi Pharmaceutical saw gains of 42% and 38%, respectively [2] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The closure policy has led to a reconstruction of both hard and soft infrastructure in Hainan, with upgrades to port facilities, enhanced transportation networks, and a restructured logistics and energy infrastructure [2] - Soft infrastructure improvements include the integration of regulatory systems, financial infrastructure, and alignment of standards and rules [2] Group 3: Business Opportunities - Domestic listed companies are seizing the opportunities presented by the Hainan closure policy, with companies like Supply and Marketing Cooperative establishing a regional office in Hainan to manage member enterprises and enhance logistics and supply chain capabilities [2] - Supply and Marketing Cooperative has initiated stable operations in pig supply with Haikou City’s vegetable basket group and is expanding cross-border e-commerce categories, creating an "online + offline" shopping ecosystem [2] Group 4: Policy Framework - Hainan has achieved breakthroughs in zero tariffs and free flow, offshore processing and value-added trade services, port access facilitation, and innovative trade methods through a platform, dual policies, and three types of regulation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a pullback on December 23, with the major indices turning negative, while the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) closed flat with a 0.00% change, indicating stability amidst market fluctuations [1][9]. Trading Performance - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) had a closing price of 1.173, with a trading volume of 5.10 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.92% on December 23 [2][10]. - Over the past 20 trading days, the ETF accumulated a total trading volume of 12.602 billion CNY, averaging 630 million CNY per day. Year-to-date, the total trading volume reached 114.068 billion CNY, averaging 481 million CNY per day [3][10]. Fund Flows - The ETF has seen significant net inflows, with 1.15 billion CNY over the last 5 trading days, 1.59 billion CNY over the last 10 days, and 5.9 billion CNY over the last 60 days, indicating strong investor interest [3][10]. Market Outlook - Multiple institutions have expressed views on the market outlook. Zhongtai Securities highlighted the increasing value of high-dividend, strong cash flow assets in a low-interest-rate environment, driven by long-term capital inflows [5][12]. - CICC noted that dividend assets may exhibit defensive value as the market approaches the end of December, with the CSI 300 index's dynamic P/E ratio nearing historical averages, suggesting potential for further expansion [5][13]. - Caixin Securities emphasized the sustainability of high-dividend strategies, predicting continued institutional allocation towards dividend assets, particularly in sectors like home appliances, banking, gas, publishing, cement, and telecommunications, which generally have stable earnings and high dividend yields [5][13]. Historical Performance - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) has shown a solid historical performance since its inception in December 2018, with a total return of 134.48%, outperforming its benchmark and ranking 78th among 502 products [8][15].

Core Insights - Guangdong's foreign-invested enterprises have shown strong growth in imports and exports, with a total of 2.76 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of the year, marking a 6.7% increase compared to the same period last year, outperforming the overall growth rate of Guangdong's imports and exports by 2.5 percentage points [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - Exports reached 1.68 trillion yuan, growing by 2.9%, while imports totaled 1.08 trillion yuan, increasing by 13.3% [1] - In November alone, the import and export value of Guangdong's foreign-invested enterprises was 265.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of over 10% [1] Group 2: Trade Methods - General trade accounted for 972.64 billion yuan, growing by 8.8%, representing 35.3% of the total import and export value [1] - Bonded logistics saw a significant increase of 28.3%, totaling 478.45 billion yuan, making up 17.4% of the total [1] - Processing trade contributed 1.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 47.1% of the total [1] Group 3: Key Markets - Hong Kong, ASEAN, and the EU are the top three trading partners for Guangdong's foreign-invested enterprises, with trade values of 551.99 billion yuan (9.5% growth), 385.39 billion yuan (11% growth), and 306.19 billion yuan (6.6% growth) respectively [2] - Trade with Taiwan grew by over 20%, reaching 238.9 billion yuan [2] Group 4: Export Products - The export of electromechanical products reached 1.34 trillion yuan, growing by 4.3% and accounting for 79.8% of total exports [2] - Key products such as electronic components, computers and their parts, and electrical equipment saw significant growth, with exports of 201.96 billion yuan (16% growth), 168.78 billion yuan (10.6% growth), and 132.13 billion yuan (12.1% growth) respectively [2] Group 5: Import Products - Imports of electromechanical products totaled 782.59 billion yuan, increasing by 19% and making up 72.3% of total imports [3] - Integrated circuits were the largest import item at 433.2 billion yuan, with a growth of 28% [3] - Other significant imports included computers and their parts (41.36 billion yuan, 86.1% growth), aircraft parts (13.95 billion yuan, 37.9% growth), and machine tools (2.68 billion yuan, 85.5% growth) [3] - Agricultural products and energy products also saw increases, with imports of 40.94 billion yuan (23.2% growth) and 28 billion yuan (6.7% growth) respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic partnership between China and Iraq, established in December 2015, has significantly strengthened over the past decade, focusing on mutual respect, political trust, and practical cooperation, serving as a model for cooperation among developing countries in a changing world [2][3]. Political Trust - Political trust has been the solid foundation for the steady development of bilateral relations, with China supporting Iraq's economic development, improving livelihoods, and combating terrorism, while opposing external interference in Iraq's internal affairs [2]. - Both countries respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, accommodating core interests and major concerns, which has expanded consensus and provided crucial support for the growth of the strategic partnership [2]. Mutual Benefit and Cooperation - China has been the earliest and longest participant in Iraq's economic reconstruction, engaging in various infrastructure projects across multiple sectors, including energy, electricity, and transportation [3]. - The bilateral trade volume is expected to exceed $54 billion in 2024, covering sectors such as energy, automotive, and electronics, with Chinese electric vehicle brands gaining popularity in Iraq [3]. - Chinese-made electronic devices and smart home products have improved the convenience of daily life for Iraqi citizens, while the application of Chinese standards in electrical equipment and construction materials has enhanced public service levels [3]. Cultural Exchange - Cultural exchanges have deepened the relationship, with initiatives such as the establishment of a global civilization initiative research center in Iraq and an increase in Iraqi students studying in China [4]. - These exchanges have expanded into education, culture, academia, and youth interactions, fostering a social foundation for the strategic partnership [4]. Future Outlook - Both countries aim to continue their traditional friendship, deepen mutual trust, and elevate the strategic partnership to higher levels, broader fields, and deeper dimensions, embarking on a new chapter of high-quality cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative for the next decade [4].

Core Viewpoint - Guangju Energy (000096.SZ) has announced through its investor interaction platform that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Aerospace Ouhua Information Technology Co., Ltd., is currently engaged in value-added distribution of government and enterprise products, and is not involved in aerospace computing-related businesses [1] Group 1 - Guangju Energy's subsidiary is focusing on value-added distribution services for government and enterprise products [1] - The company clarifies that it does not participate in aerospace computing-related activities [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Amid the resonance of interest rate cuts and geopolitical factors, precious metals continue to be strong. The current inflation - expectation game stage focuses on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. While the market sentiment is still high, there are risks of policy expectation reversals at home and abroad. It is necessary to track the sentiment - driven market trends and also prepare risk plans for potential adjustments [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Policy Expectations in China**: The Politburo meeting on December 8 emphasized "continuing to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy" and "increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts". The Central Economic Work Conference on December 11 focused on boosting consumption and "anti - involution". Multiple ministries responded: the central bank will use reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate cuts; the NDRC will boost consumption and promote new growth drivers; the Ministry of Finance will use government bonds and issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded significantly (exports +5.9% and imports +1.9% year - on - year in US dollars), but the economic data was still under pressure, and the LPR remained unchanged for the seventh consecutive month (5 - year above LPR at 3.5%, 1 - year LPR at 3%) [1] - **US Federal Reserve**: The Fed's December meeting announced the purchase of $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days and a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut as expected. The median of the dot - plot maintains the expectation of one interest rate cut each in the next two years. The Fed may pause rate cuts again. The US employment and PMI data are weak. The slowdown of the Fed's rate - cut pace and the Bank of Japan's rate hike in December have led to a currently positive market driven by sentiment, but risks need to be watched [2] - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points on December 19 as expected. The impact of the rate hike is limited as the proportion of overseas holders of Japanese government bonds is low and the net long position of the US dollar against the yen has not increased significantly. On December 22, Japanese long - term bonds tumbled [3] - **Commodity Market**: In the current inflation - expectation game, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. The non - ferrous metal sector has high certainty due to long - term supply constraints. In the energy sector, some countries have submitted additional production - cut plans, and the EU will stop importing Russian natural gas by 2027. In the chemical sector, there is "anti - involution" space for some products. In the agricultural products sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods. For precious metals, look for buying opportunities on dips, but short - term silver risks have risen [3] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] To - do News - The market trended strongly with the Shanghai Composite Index back above 3900 and the ChiNext Index up more than 2%. Over 2900 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rose, with trading volume exceeding 1.88 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.23% [5] - China's LPR remained unchanged for the seventh consecutive month (5 - year above LPR at 3.5%, 1 - year LPR at 3%) [5] - Japanese government bond yields rose, with the 2 - year yield at 1.105% (the highest since 1997), the 5 - year yield up 3.5 basis points to 1.52%, and the 20 - year yield up 3 basis points to 3% [5] - The US intercepted a tanker in international waters near Venezuela. The tanker was under US sanctions [5] - The US dollar against the yen fell about 20 points, and the Japanese finance minister warned speculators [5] - Spot gold hit a record high, spot silver rose more than 3% above $69 per ounce, LME copper prices neared a record high, and spot platinum rose above $2000 per ounce for the first time since 2008 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global financial and commodity markets, along with significant macro - economic, industrial, and policy news, offering a multi - faceted view of market trends and potential investment opportunities [3][7][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - market Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 2.13% at $4480.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.37% at $69.09 per ounce [4] - US oil and Brent crude oil futures both increased, with US oil up 2.53% at $57.95 per barrel and Brent crude up 2.45% at $61.52 per barrel [5] - London base metals showed mixed results, with some rising and some falling [5] - Most domestic futures contracts closed higher, with PVC, fuel oil, etc. rising, while ethylene glycol (EG) fell nearly 1% [5] Important News Macro News - Li Qiang emphasized planning major projects in the '15th Five - Year Plan' to boost future development and current economic stability [8] - The PBOC kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged for seven consecutive months [9] - Multiple futures exchanges will adjust fee policies from January 1, 2026 [9] - Fed Governor Milan said the need for a 50 - basis - point rate cut has weakened [10] - Trump will meet with national security officials, and Russia is evacuating diplomats' families from Venezuela [11] - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) rose 5.2% [13] - LME plans to introduce option auto - expiration and e - option trading in 2026 [13] Energy and Chemical Futures - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were cut on December 22 [15] - Jiangsu's styrene port inventory increased [15] - Domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory rose slightly [15] - Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased [16] Metal Futures - The SHFE adjusted trading rules for silver futures [18] - The first - quarter long - term price of a large Guinean mine decreased [18] - Global and Chinese primary aluminum production data were released [20] - The non - ferrous metal industry maintained growth [20] - Australian lithium concentrate shipments to China decreased [20] - The GZEX adjusted the delivery rules for lithium carbonate and polysilicon futures [21] - The holdings of major gold and silver ETFs increased [21] Black - series Futures - Multiple departments launched inspections on illegal mining [23] - Global and Australian - Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased [25] - China's port arrival volume of iron ore decreased [25] - Coke purchase prices in Shandong and Hebei markets were cut [25] - A silicon - manganese alloy plant in Inner Mongolia plans to expand production [26] Agricultural Product Futures - US soybean export data showed growth [28] - Malaysia's palm oil market is expected to stabilize in 2026 [30] - Domestic soybean crushing volume increased [30] - Malaysian palm oil export and production data for December showed changes [31] - Sugar production data in Guangxi and India were reported [31] - Brazil's soybean production forecast was raised [33] - Brazil's soybean sowing rate and shipping data were updated [34] Financial Market Finance - A - shares rose with increased trading volume, and the HSI also increased [36] - The exchanges announced holidays for 2026 [37] - Shenzhen's M&A market and Shanghai's refinancing market showed good performance [38] - Goldman Sachs analysts expect Chinese stocks to continue rising [38] - But Bin is optimistic about the A - share AI industry [39] Industry - China and relevant parties negotiated on the semiconductor supply chain [40] - China imposed anti - subsidy measures on EU dairy products [40] - Guangzhou proposed plans for horse - racing and e - sports industries [42] - Many Sino - Japanese flights were cancelled [42] - Shenzhen expanded the housing voucher resettlement pilot [42] - Some land auctions in Guangzhou failed [42] - Domestic refined oil prices dropped for the third consecutive time [43] - A 70 - billion financial product of Jinyafu defaulted [43] - The market regulator reformed the CCC certification [43] Overseas - Ukraine and the US completed the initial draft of a 'peace plan' [45] - Trump will appoint a new Fed chair [45] - Fed Governor Milan warned of recession risks without rate cuts [45] - The Trump administration increased cash subsidies for illegal immigrants' voluntary departure [45] - The EU extended sanctions against Russia and introduced anti - circumvention measures [45] - India and New Zealand reached a free trade agreement [46] Commodity - The SHFE adjusted trading fees for silver futures to cool the market [50] - International precious metal futures rose due to policy expectations and geopolitical risks [50] - Crude oil futures prices rose due to supply concerns in Venezuela [51] - London base metals showed mixed trends [52] Bond - China's bond market weakened, and institutions adjusted their bond allocations [53] - Insurance companies accelerated bond issuance [53] - US bond yields rose [54] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB rose against the US dollar, and the US dollar index fell [56] - Japan and South Korea warned against currency speculation [56] Upcoming Events - The RBA will release its December monetary policy meeting minutes [58] - The PBOC will have 1353 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due [58] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference [58] - Multiple conferences and events will take place [58] - New stocks will be listed and申购 [58] - The Bank of Canada will release its monetary policy meeting minutes [58]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ （来源：网易科技） 谷歌在为大幅扩张数据中心从而支持人工智能（AI）领域发展而进行超大规模交易。母公司Alphabet Inc.将以现金加承担债务的方式，总规模47.5亿美元全资收购数据中心的能源供应商Intersect Power LLC。 这笔收购旨在为谷歌获得更多数据中心电力供应，应对美国老化电网难以满足因AI、新工厂和经济全 面电气化而数十年来首次激增的电力需求。一年前谷歌已通过融资入股Intersect，与其建立了在数据中 心园区旁建设大型能源工厂的合作伙伴关系。 根据美东时间22日周一公布的协议，收购完成后，提供数据中心和能源基础设施解决方案的Intersect将 继续以独立品牌运营，但将与谷歌技术基础设施团队紧密合作。该交易预计将在2026年上半年完成。 Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai表示："Intersect将帮助我们扩大产能，在与新数据中心负载同步建设新发电 能力时更加灵活地运营，并重新构想能源解决方案，从而推动美国的创新和领导地位。" 收购覆盖在建项目，部分资产除外 据Alphabet本周一的公 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China Chengtong Development Group announced a sale and leaseback agreement involving its wholly-owned subsidiary, Chengtong Financing Leasing, and the lessee, Datang Huayin Youxian Energy [1] - The leaseback agreement is set to last for two years, with the possibility of early termination based on the terms and conditions outlined in the agreement [1] - Chengtong Financing Leasing will purchase the leasing assets from the lessee and subsequently lease them back to the lessee [1]