证券研究报告 | 策略深度报告 | 中国策略 策略深度报告 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 04 日 银行：趋势的力量，坚定的胆量 ——从白酒、新能源汽车和煤炭牛市看银行未来的时间及空间 核心观点 本轮中信银行指数从 2022 年 11 月开始上涨，至今已持续 2 年零 8 个月。当上证指数 在 2024 年 11 月至 2025 年 6 月连续 8 个月窄幅震荡时，中信银行指数已悄然走出技术 性牛市，近期指数更是周线 8 连阳，股价不断创历史新高。伴随着指数走高，市场对 银行指数是否见顶的讨论逐渐增加。以史为鉴，本篇报告复盘了白酒、新能源汽车和 煤炭三大行业牛市的驱动因素及 DDM 模型股价归因。通过对比，我们认为当下银行 板块或处于"牛市"中段，中信银行指数 PB 有望从 2022 年 10 月的 0.5X 修复至 0.8-0.9X 左右。 ❑ 白酒：2016-2021 年，消费红利释放，外资加速配置 1）2016 年 1 月-2018 年 6 月：房地产价格上涨带来财富效应，居民消费升级背景 下，白酒行业迎来量价齐升。在此期间，盈利为拉动股价上涨的主要因素。 2）2018 年 11 月-2021 年 ...

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed a mixed performance with banking, liquor, semiconductor, and logistics sectors rising, while non-ferrous metals and chemical pharmaceuticals sectors weakened [1] - BYD's stock price fell over 1% [1] Sector Performance Banking Sector - Major banks like China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance reported market capitalizations of 382.98 billion, 357.30 billion, and 1,030.15 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 9.81 million, 36.96 million, and 7.85 million [3] Liquor Industry - Key players such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye had market capitalizations of 1,786.59 billion, 214.35 billion, and 467.31 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 40.87 million, 10.51 million, and 20.49 million [3] Semiconductor Sector - Companies like Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Haiguang Information had market capitalizations of 241.84 billion, 229.03 billion, and 315.09 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 24.36 million, 31.12 million, and 15.15 million [3] Automotive Sector - BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway had market capitalizations of 1,818.73 billion, 186.84 billion, and 278.88 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 34.54 million, 4.39 million, and 5.94 million [3] Oil Industry - China Petroleum, Sinopec, and COSCO Shipping had market capitalizations of 239.78 billion, 688.67 billion, and 1,573.98 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 8.63 million, 6.43 million, and 7.64 million [3] Coal Industry - Major companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry had market capitalizations of 187.79 billion and 815.60 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 12.39 million and 6.45 million [3] Power Industry - Key players such as Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power had market capitalizations of 360.33 billion and 737.96 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 20.49 million and 8.29 million [4] Food and Beverage Sector - Companies like Citic Securities, Guotai Junan, and Haitian Flavoring had market capitalizations of 409.94 billion, 340.96 billion, and 226.93 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 28.30 million, 3.94 million, and 16.84 million [4] Consumer Electronics - Industrial Fulian, Luxshare Precision, and Gree Electric Appliances had market capitalizations of 472.85 billion, 255.90 billion, and 242.55 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 30.57 million, 77.50 million, and 25.48 million [4] Chemical Products - Companies like Wanhua Chemical and SF Holding had market capitalizations of 239.20 billion and 271.34 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 12.28 million and 8.32 million [4] Construction and Engineering - China State Construction and Zijin Mining had market capitalizations of 532.88 billion and 166.95 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 27.26 million and 8.53 million [4]

Core Insights - The recognition of Zhang Zhiliang and Guo Taohong as "Chief Wine Body Designers" highlights the scientific and quality control capabilities of Jinhui Wine Co., Ltd, as well as its talent cultivation system [1][3][4] - The title of "Chief Wine Body Designer" is a prestigious position in the liquor industry, emphasizing the importance of innovation and quality stability in product development [3][4] Group 1: Recognition and Achievements - Zhang Zhiliang has over 40 years of experience in the liquor industry, recognized for creating the northern sweet and rich style of liquor and has received multiple honors including "China's Chief Taster" and "Gansu Province May Day Labor Medal" [3][4] - Guo Taohong, as the head of the R&D center, holds multiple prestigious titles and has significant experience in technical research and quality control [4] Group 2: Industry Context - The "Chief Wine Body Designer" role is crucial in leading design teams, formulating core design plans, and ensuring product quality and style stability, especially in the context of consumer upgrades and industry transformation [3] - The China Food Industry Association is known for its authoritative and rigorous evaluation process in the liquor industry, awarding significant honors such as the "China Liquor Body Design Award" since 2012 [3]

Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment and transformation in the consumer market, with a decline in production among large-scale enterprises in 2024, yet leading companies are still seeing growth in revenue and profit, indicating an increase in industry concentration [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is leveraging its dual-brand matrix of "Guojiao" (over 20 billion) and "Luzhou Laojiao" (over 10 billion) to navigate market fluctuations [1] - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns by increasing dividend rates over the next 5-10 years, while focusing on strategies such as "lower alcohol content, youth-oriented, scenario-based, and digitalization" [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao reported revenue of 31.196 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit of 13.473 billion, up 1.71% year-on-year [1] - The "Guojiao" brand exceeded 20 billion, while "Luzhou Laojiao" surpassed 10 billion, supported by a strategy of "dual brands, three product lines, and major single products" [1] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on the "lower alcohol content" innovation as a strategic priority, with plans to launch a 28-degree product and consider even lower alcohol content options [1] - The 38-degree Guojiao 1573 has gained market acceptance, with sales accounting for approximately 50% and nearing 10 billion in scale [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is expanding into lower-tier markets and has doubled its online network system in the first four months, with expectations to further expand market reach over the next five years [1] Competitive Advantage - The company emphasizes a strategy of "opening bottles as king," aiming to deepen its presence in grassroots markets and optimize its channel system to enhance its ability to respond to market changes [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is committed to a "culture + technology" strategy, focusing on innovation and quality to write a new chapter in the development of the liquor industry [1]

Market Performance - A-shares indices showed a slight increase on July 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year at 3475.24 points, up 0.41% with a trading volume of 335.9 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.05% to 10540.00 points, with a trading volume of 526.8 billion yuan, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.18% to 2168.03 points, with a trading volume of 256.6 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in sectors such as banking, gaming, electricity, cross-border payments, brain-computer interfaces, and internet finance, with several stocks reaching their daily limit [2] - Conversely, sectors like energy metals, wind power equipment, batteries, and marine economy experienced declines, with some stocks, such as Baiyang Co., hitting their daily limit down [2] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted the potential growth in the submarine cable market, projecting a 60% increase in the length of new submarine cables globally from 2026 to 2030 compared to the previous five years, with a CAGR of 13% expected for the market size from 2025 to 2030 [3] - The report also noted that leading companies in the domestic submarine cable sector are expected to enhance their competitiveness [3] - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need for a unified national market and the orderly exit of backward production capacity in the steel industry, which could lead to further profit recovery in the sector [3] Trade Relations - The Ministry of Commerce of China confirmed that both China and the U.S. are working to implement the outcomes of recent economic talks, with the U.S. taking steps to lift certain trade restrictions on China, including the resumption of exports of EDA software and jet engines [4][5] - The Chinese government is expected to approve export licenses for eligible controlled items, indicating a potential thaw in trade tensions [4] Emerging Industries - The Sichuan provincial government is focusing on advancing key technologies in nuclear fusion and high-efficiency laser fusion energy, aiming to establish innovative enterprises in fusion energy and enhance production capabilities of related components [6]

机构观点方面，中信建投研报表示，6月份以来飞天茅台批价大幅下探，据"今日酒价"散飞最低价格跌 破1800元。随着人民网+、新华网先后发表文章，强调"整治违规吃喝，不是一阵风不能一刀切"，低位 白酒餐饮链有望回暖，加之6·18电商活动结束，中信建投认为茅台批价有望回升。酒企积极求变，五粮 液、老窖等均针对产品进行低度化创新研究，老窖、酒鬼酒等亦加大终端扩张力度，行业集中度仍有较 大提升空间，龙头白酒仍有较好的成长机会。当前白酒板块估值走低，投资者预期低迷，板块底部机会 值得珍视。 长沙晚报掌上长沙7月4日讯（全媒体记者 周丛笑）昨天市场全天震荡反弹，沪深两市成交额1.31万亿， 较上个交易日缩量672亿。盘面上，市场热点较为杂乱，个股涨多跌少，全市场超3200只个股上涨。板 块方面，PCB、消费电子、创新药、固态电池等板块涨幅居前，可控核聚变、海洋经济、油气、游戏等 板块跌幅居前。 消息面，国家药监局发布优化全生命周期监管支持高端医疗器械创新发展有关举措的公告。其中提到， 加强人工智能、生物材料"揭榜挂帅"产品的注册指导，配合相关部门出台基于脑机接口技术的医疗器械 产品支持政策。对依法作出附条件批准的高端医疗器 ...

金十图示：2025年07月04日（周五）富时中国A50指数成分股午盘收盘行情一览：多数板块飘红，银行、保险、白酒、半导体板 块等走高，有色金属、化学制药板块小幅走低 +0.10(+1.81%) +0.23(+2.68%) +0.11(+2.59%) 保险 中国太保 中国平安 0.000 中国人保 0 3856.33亿市值 3573.96亿市值 10241.44亿市值 4.18亿成交额 14.48亿成交额 3.87亿成交额 56.24 8.72 37.15 0.00(0.00%) +0.44(+0.79%) +0.07(+0.81%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 17831.98亿市值 2133.60亿市值 4659.87亿市值 17.41亿成交额 4.14亿成交额 9.40亿成交额 1419.52 120.05 174.89 +3.92(+0.28%) -0.73(-0.42%) +0.43(+0.36%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2410.23亿市值 2291.68亿市值 3155.29亿市值 11.18亿成交额 18.08亿成交额 7.76亿成交额 135.75 54 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the innovative advancements in the production of high-quality liquor at Gubeichun, emphasizing the integration of scientific research and traditional brewing techniques to enhance product quality and efficiency. Group 1: Agricultural Innovations - The introduction of the Jiliang 4 sorghum variety has shown remarkable advantages, including a starch content of 74.33% and a fermentation yield of 42.2%, surpassing ordinary sorghum by 2% [4] - Gubeichun has collaborated with Shandong Agricultural Academy since 2012 to develop specialized brewing grains, culminating in the successful trial planting of Jiliang 3 and 4 in 2020 [2][4] Group 2: Microbial and Fermentation Techniques - The company has developed a new artificial pit mud cultivation technique that combines wild and domesticated strains, significantly improving the stability and activity of the microbial community used in brewing [8][10] - Innovations in fermentation processes, such as extending the fermentation period from 70 to 90 days, have been implemented to adapt to the northern climate, enhancing the overall quality of the liquor [12][13] Group 3: Storage and Aging Methods - Gubeichun employs a dual storage system using both traditional ceramic jars and modern stainless steel tanks, optimizing the aging process and ensuring product quality [14][17] - The introduction of the "three-step cycle storage and BQCY technology" has increased the annual production of high-quality liquor by 980 tons while optimizing resource usage [17][18] Group 4: Quality Recognition - The company has received multiple awards for its quality, including the 2024 "Qingzhao Award" at the China International Wine Expo, reflecting its commitment to excellence in liquor production [19]

Core Insights - The recent resignations of key executives in the Chinese liquor industry highlight the urgent need for strategic transformation amid deep industry adjustments [1][5][14] Group 1: Company Performance - Yanghe Co., under Zhang Liandong's leadership, experienced a revenue decline of 12.83% to 28.876 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit plummeting 33.37% to 6.673 billion yuan, dropping from third to fifth in industry rankings [2][4] - Jinzhongzi Liquor, led by He Xiuxia, saw revenue decrease from 1.186 billion yuan in 2022 to 925 million yuan in 2024, with a cumulative net loss of 633 million yuan [10][12] Group 2: Strategic Challenges - Yanghe's strategic missteps included outdated brand management and a rigid distribution model, leading to losses in market share against competitors like Jinshiyuan [4][15] - Jinzhongzi's challenges stemmed from a misalignment between beer and liquor market strategies, resulting in a lack of brand recognition and market penetration [10][12] Group 3: Management Changes - The resignations of Zhang Liandong and He Xiuxia reflect broader trends in the industry, with local governments influencing management changes to drive strategic shifts [7][16] - The new leadership at both companies faces significant challenges, including cash flow issues and the need to balance independence with corporate integration [12][18] Group 4: Industry Trends - The liquor industry is currently in a "shrinking competition" phase, with production among large enterprises declining by 6.8% in 2024, and revenue growth slowing significantly [15] - The departure of key executives signals a shift from "scale expansion" to "value cultivation," emphasizing the need for strategic innovation and organizational transformation [18]

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of He Xiuxia as the general manager of Jinzhongzi Wine highlights ongoing management instability and challenges in the company's performance despite efforts from the new major shareholder, China Resources [2][3][10]. Group 1: Management Changes - He Xiuxia resigned from her positions as director and general manager of Jinzhongzi Wine, with Liu Fubi, the deputy general manager, taking over her responsibilities temporarily [2][4]. - He Xiuxia's tenure was marked by significant changes, including a complete overhaul of the sales system and organizational restructuring, but ultimately did not yield the desired financial results [6][10]. - The management team has seen continuous turnover, with reports indicating that 70% of middle management was replaced during He Xiuxia's leadership [8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Jinzhongzi Wine has faced significant financial difficulties, accumulating losses exceeding 600 million yuan over the past five years, with a record loss of 258 million yuan in 2024 [10][13]. - The company's revenue has drastically declined, with 2024 revenue reported at 925 million yuan, significantly lower than competitors like Gujinggongjiu and Kuaijiaqingjiu [11]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a 29.41% decline in revenue, with net losses expanding to 38.93 million yuan [13]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Despite the challenges, Jinzhongzi Wine has attempted to innovate its product offerings and improve its market presence, including a restructuring of its product tiers and a focus on high-end offerings [6][10]. - The company has also expanded its distribution network significantly, increasing the number of distributors from 40,000 to 220,000 [6]. - Jinzhongzi Wine's management has expressed confidence in turning around the brand's image and product structure, focusing on the "Fuhuo Xiang" series as a key growth area [15].