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国投期货化工日报-20250917
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 12:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not explicitly stated, but market is in a weak state [6] - Methanol: Not explicitly stated, continues to fluctuate at a low level [6] - Pure Benzene: Not explicitly stated, price is at a low level with potential improvement [3] - Styrene: Not explicitly stated, supply - demand situation has improved [3] - Polypropylene: Not explicitly stated, supply may slightly decrease, demand is weak [2] - Plastic: Not explicitly stated, no specific rating - related content provided - PVC: Not explicitly stated, runs with an upward bias under macro - expectations [7] - Caustic Soda: Not explicitly stated, expected to be in a wide - range oscillation pattern [7] - PX: Not explicitly stated, no specific rating - related content provided - PTA: Not explicitly stated, price is driven by raw materials, pay attention to device reduction [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Not explicitly stated, at a low - level oscillation [5] - Short Fiber: Not explicitly stated, positive configuration for near - month contracts [5] - Bottle Chip: Not explicitly stated, long - term pressure from over - capacity [5] - Glass: Not explicitly stated, runs with an upward bias, price may follow macro - sentiment [8] - Soda Ash: Not explicitly stated, runs strongly, long - term supply surplus [8] - Propylene: Not explicitly stated, supply is expected to increase, demand support may weaken [2] 2. Core Views - The chemical futures market shows a mixed trend, with different products having their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as new device production, seasonal demand changes, and inventory levels [2][3][5] - In general, many products are facing the influence of supply - demand relationships and macro - factors, and price trends are complex. Some products may follow macro - sentiment, while others are mainly driven by raw materials or cost factors [5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene: The futures main contract closes slightly higher. Supply is expected to increase, and demand support may weaken as some downstream devices stop work [2] - Polyolefins: The futures main contract fluctuates narrowly. PE demand increases with the rise of downstream factory operating rates, and supply decreases due to many domestic maintenance enterprises. PP supply may slightly decrease, but downstream procurement enthusiasm is restricted [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: The night - session price opens high and closes low. Weekly production slightly increases, and the processing margin oscillates at a low level. The domestic market supply - demand may improve in the third quarter, but high import volume expectations suppress market sentiment [3] - Styrene: The futures main contract fluctuates narrowly. Supply contracts, driving the spot price to stabilize and rise slightly. Downstream demand is supported by good profits and increased operating rates [3] Polyester - PTA: New device production is postponed. TA - PX spread oscillates. It is in a continuous de - stocking state, but processing margin and basis weaken. Demand shows a good trend, but polyester filament inventory is relatively high and profit is poor [5] - Ethylene Glycol: It oscillates at a low level. Domestic production decreases slightly, and port inventory continues to decline. Pay attention to the trial - run of new devices [5] - Short Fiber: Supply - demand is stable, and price fluctuates with cost. Before the National Day, downstream has restocking expectations, and near - month contracts can be configured long [5] - Bottle Chip: Downstream has rigid demand procurement. Basis and processing margin rebound, but over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The main contract continues to fluctuate at a low level. Import volume decreases, and port inventory accumulation slows down. Demand from the olefin industry increases, and port goods flow to the inland. Pay attention to overseas gas - restriction [6] - Urea: The market remains weak. Supply is sufficient, and production enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. Industrial demand recovers, and agricultural demand has a phased replenishment expectation [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: Runs with an upward bias under macro - expectations. Supply pressure is high. Downstream operating rates increase slightly, and pay attention to pre - holiday restocking demand [7] - Caustic Soda: Runs with an upward bias in an oscillatory manner. Regional performance is differentiated. Overall inventory is small, and it is expected to oscillate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: Runs strongly. Inventory decreases, and production remains high. Pay attention to macro - favorable policies, and long - term supply is in surplus [8] - Glass: Runs strongly. Inventory decreases, and downstream restocking sentiment increases. Capacity slightly recovers, and processing orders improve. Price may follow macro - sentiment [8]
化工日报-20250911
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 11:45
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The supply of propylene is tight, downstream demand is strong, and the price is expected to rise; the supply of polyolefin is under pressure, and the demand recovery is slow, with limited upward price drivers [2] - The domestic pure benzene market may improve in the third quarter, but the current price is in low - level shock; the price of styrene is supported in the short - term [3] - PTA price is driven by raw materials, and the processing margin is low; ethylene glycol price is weak; short fiber can be bullishly allocated in the near - term; bottle chip has limited processing margin recovery space [5] - Methanol is expected to stabilize in shock; urea market is expected to remain weak [6] - PVC price may fluctuate weakly; caustic soda price may show a wide - range shock pattern [7] - Soda ash is suitable for short - selling at high rebounds; glass price may show a wide - range shock pattern [8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly around the 5 - day moving average, with tight supply and strong downstream demand [2] - Polyolefin futures remain in a low - level range, with slow demand recovery and limited upward price drivers [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price is in low - level shock, with possible improvement in the third quarter [3] - Styrene price is supported in the short - term due to regional downstream stocking [3] Polyester - PTA price follows the raw materials, with low processing margin and increasing device maintenance [5] - Ethylene glycol price is weak, affected by new device commissioning [5] - Short fiber can be bullishly allocated in the near - term, with demand improvement expected [5] - Bottle chip has limited processing margin recovery space due to over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is expected to stabilize in shock with the improvement of downstream demand [6] - Urea market is expected to remain weak due to loose supply and demand [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC price may fluctuate weakly due to high supply and soft demand [7] - Caustic soda price may show a wide - range shock pattern with inventory reduction and supply pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is suitable for short - selling at high rebounds due to over - supply [8] - Glass price may show a wide - range shock pattern with inventory reduction and demand improvement [8]
供需面暂无明显矛盾 苯乙烯仍未摆脱宽幅震荡区间
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-05 07:12
Core Viewpoint - Styrene futures are experiencing a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 7140.00 yuan and currently trading at 7110.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.69% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Short-term expectations for EB2510 are projected to fluctuate within the range of 6900-7100 yuan, with supply reduction anticipated and downstream demand potentially increasing during the peak season [2][4] - The overall market for styrene is currently in a state of balance between profit and loss, with no significant contradictions in supply and demand. Despite losses widening, production remains high, and port inventories are severely piled up, indicating substantial inventory pressure [3] - The weak overall market for styrene is unlikely to change in the short term, as the industry may need to reduce production loads to alleviate supply pressure [3][5] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Downstream industries are expected to slightly adjust their operating loads, with low profits and high inventories continuing to suppress growth in styrene demand [4] - The potential for a decrease in styrene production and capacity utilization is anticipated due to the impact of maintenance on production facilities [4]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20250904
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 02:37
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No direct industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, trend intensities are given for each product, indicating their short - to medium - term outlooks. For example, - 1 represents a weakly bearish outlook, 0 represents a neutral outlook, and - 2 represents a strongly bearish outlook [11][17][28] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, highlighting their current market conditions, trends, and future outlooks. It notes that some products are facing cost pressures, supply - demand imbalances, and policy uncertainties, while others are influenced by seasonal factors and inventory levels [4][9][16] 3. Category - by - Category Summaries A. Aromatics and Polyester - Related Products - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: Cost has collapsed, and the unilateral trend has weakened. It is recommended to do 11 - 01 positive spreads and 1 - 5 reverse spreads. Unilateral prices have limited downside space, and it is advisable to go long on dips before mid - September [4][9] - **PTA**: Followed the decline in crude oil prices. Continue to focus on the 11 - 1 positive spreads for the month - spread and long PTA short PX for processing fees [4][9] - **MEG**: With the decline of coal and crude oil prices, the valuation of ethylene glycol has declined, and the short - term trend is weak [4][9] B. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: The market is in a weakly bearish and oscillating pattern. In August, the prices of natural rubber and other raw materials fluctuated upwards, and the tire raw material cost increased. The full - steel tire market price was basically stable in August, and it is expected to remain stable in September [10][11][13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: In the short term, it is in an oscillating and pressured state. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber has increased slightly, and the short - term supply of butadiene is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" policy provides some support to the overall valuation of commodities [14][15][16] C. Bitumen - The price is under pressure from OPEC's potential production increase, but geopolitical risks still exist. The total weekly output of domestic bitumen decreased by 3.3% week - on - week and increased by 3.3% year - on - year. Both factory and social inventories have decreased [19][20][31] D. Plastics - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it is weak, and in the medium term, it will be in an oscillating market. The demand for PE is improving due to the upcoming peak season for the agricultural film industry, but recent commodity sentiment has declined, affecting futures prices. The supply pressure may be alleviated in the East China region at the end of September [32][33] - **PP**: In the short term, it oscillates, and in the medium term, there is still downward pressure. Although short - term demand has improved, the cost side is weak, and the supply pressure will increase in the future [36][37] E. Alkali Products - **Caustic Soda**: It is not advisable to chase short positions. The market will still have wide - range oscillations in the short term. The current driving force for caustic soda is insufficient, and the market is in a state of expectation game. The main obstacles to the rise are export and alumina [40][41] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillating, with flexible price transactions. The downstream demand fluctuates little, and the procurement sentiment is not good [63][65] F. Pulp and Paper - **Pulp**: It is in an oscillating state. The spot price of pulp is stable, and the futures market has a slight upward trend. The supply side has support from the new round of foreign offers, but the demand side is still weak [45][48] - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is oscillating at a low level with limited upward momentum [2] G. Glass and Methanol - **Glass**: The price of the original glass sheet is stable. The short - term supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and downstream orders have little change [50][51] - **Methanol**: It is in an oscillating pattern. The short - term fundamentals have significant contradictions, with continuous inventory accumulation at ports. However, the "anti - involution" policy provides some support to the overall valuation of commodities [53][56][57] H. Fertilizers - **Urea**: Spot trading is light, and futures are at a premium. In the short term, the export has not significantly driven the spot market, and the mid - term trend is still under pressure due to the expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [58][59][60] I. Styrene - **Styrene**: It is bearish in the medium term. The short - term market is oscillating, but the mid - term fundamentals are weak due to factors such as inventory accumulation and the end of the "anti - involution" hype [61][62] J. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: There is an expectation of OPEC+ production increase, leading to a decline in crude oil cost [68] - **Propylene**: High spot prices have suppressed buying interest, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [69] K. PVC - The market is still under pressure. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and exports may be affected by policy disturbances [79][80][81] L. Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has been continuously retracing, and may continue to be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [82] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The downward trend continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is oscillating at a high level [82] M. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is in a wide - range oscillating state, with recent price declines in European and US - West shipping routes [84]
国投期货化工日报-20250822
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 11:31
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly defined [1] - Methanol: Not clearly defined [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading operability) [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a balanced short - term trend and poor trading operability) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products having various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as supply disruptions, demand changes, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Grouped Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate above the 5 - day average line. Downstream restocking is active, and supply - side news is positive, boosting prices [2] - Polyolefin futures have narrow fluctuations. Polyethylene has supply pressure and slow - growing demand, while polypropylene has supply support but slow - recovering demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices oscillate around 6200 yuan/ton. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third quarter and potential pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures are in a consolidation pattern. Cost is weak, and the supply - demand is in a wide - balance state with potential inventory accumulation [3] Polyester - PTA is driven by cost and shows a strong trend. Terminal weaving is improving, and PX supply - demand is expected to improve [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rise to 4500 yuan/ton and then fall back. Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising [5] - Short - fiber supply - demand is stable and cost - driven. New capacity is limited, and mid - term long - position allocation is considered [5] - Bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, limiting profit margin recovery [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol prices are weak. Import volume is slightly down, but port inventory may reach a high level at the end of the third quarter [6] - Urea prices fall after export news. Supply is loose in the short term, and the market is affected by sentiment and export news [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC shows an oscillating trend. Supply is high, demand is poor, and export pressure is increasing [7] - Caustic soda is strong. Non - aluminum seasonal restocking and demand increase support prices, but long - term supply pressure remains [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rise. Supply may decline slightly, but inventory is high, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus [8] - Glass prices rise. Inventory accumulation slows down, and cost increases provide support [8]
国投期货化工日报-20250821
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 11:35
Report Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastics: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fibre: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chips: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market shows mixed trends. Propylene prices are boosted by improved supply - demand, while polyolefin has different supply - demand situations for polyethylene and polypropylene [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market has different outlooks for different periods. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3 for pure benzene, and benzene - styrene has stable supply and limited downstream boost [3]. - The polyester market has various factors affecting different products. PX has positive valuation, ethylene glycol is multi - factor intertwined, short - fibre has positive demand expectations, and bottle chips face long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. - The coal - chemical market has different performances for methanol and urea. Methanol has weak reality but strong expectation, and urea is affected by market sentiment and export news [6]. - The chlor - alkali market shows different trends for PVC and caustic soda. PVC is expected to be weak, and caustic soda is strong in the short - term but limited in long - term increase [7]. - The soda ash - glass market is weak. Soda ash has an over - supply situation, and glass has cost support but weak demand [8]. Summary by Categories Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures rose, with positive supply - demand factors such as downstream restocking and supply - side changes [2]. - Polyolefin futures had a mixed performance. Polyethylene has supply pressure and slow demand, while polypropylene has short - term supply support and slow demand recovery [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene has a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3 but may face pressure in Q4. It is recommended for monthly - spread band trading [3]. - Styrene has cost support, stable supply, and limited downstream boost, maintaining a consolidation pattern [3]. Polyester - PX has positive valuation due to improved demand expectations. PTA is affected by device news with limited impact [5]. - Ethylene glycol has a mixed situation with increased supply and stable demand, and needs to focus on policy and demand recovery [5]. - Short - fibre has positive demand expectations in the peak season and is recommended for long - term allocation. Bottle chips face long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol has weak current conditions but strong expectations, with port inventory issues and changes in supply and demand [6]. - Urea is affected by market sentiment and export news, with a loose short - term supply - demand situation [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC is expected to be weak due to high supply, low demand, and increased export pressure [7]. - Caustic soda is strong in the short - term due to demand for restocking but has long - term supply pressure [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash has an over - supply situation with high inventory at all levels, and its price is under pressure [8]. - Glass has cost support but weak demand, with a slowdown in inventory accumulation [8].
短期供需环比转弱 对二甲苯预计随原油价格波动
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-21 06:15
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in paraxylene (PX) futures prices is influenced by fluctuations in crude oil prices, with a notable increase of 2.33% observed in the main contract [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The main paraxylene futures contract reached a peak of 6984.0 yuan, closing at 6940.0 yuan [1] - Domestic PX production for the week was reported at 6.6933 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.4% [1] - The average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 82.67%, up 0.32% from the previous week [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The average PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.01%, down 0.91% from the previous week, with PTA production at 1.3841 million tons, an increase of 15,800 tons week-on-week [1] - PX load increased to 84.3%, a rise of 2.3% compared to the previous week [1] - Import statistics indicate that in July 2025, China's mainland PX imports totaled approximately 782,000 tons, marking a 2.2% increase month-on-month and a 23.7% increase year-on-year [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term PX prices are expected to follow crude oil price trends, with resistance around 7050 yuan and support near 6600 yuan [1] - The market anticipates a potential short-term adjustment in PX prices, with a focus on cost factors and macroeconomic policy changes [1]
化工日报:需求边际好转,关注成本端变动-20250819
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 03:52
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral, with attention on the cost-side crude oil and macro sentiment changes [3] Core Viewpoints - The marginal demand has improved, and attention should be paid to cost-side changes. The most pessimistic period on the demand side has passed, but the market is still affected by factors such as supplier actions and inventory [1][2][3] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - Include TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short fiber basis [7][8][10] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Cover PX processing fee, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - Involve toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads between South Korea and Japan, and PTA export profit [24][25] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start-up - Include the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Include filament and short fiber production and sales, polyester load, and various factory inventory days and operating rates in the downstream [47][49][51] VII. PF Detailed Data - Include polyester staple fiber load, inventory days, profit, and related operating rates and spreads [73][79][83] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Include polyester bottle chip load, inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and various spreads [86][88][95]
化工日报-20250818
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 12:38
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a certain direction but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pure Benzene: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Styrene: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Propylene: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Plastics: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - PVC: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a certain direction but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Glass: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Bottle Chip: No clear investment rating indicated [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for various chemical products shows a complex and diverse situation, with different products having different supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated widely around the 5 - day moving average. Device start - stop plans exist, and production enterprise inventory pressure is relatively controllable. Downstream demand is general, with some downstream device restarts providing slight support [2] - Polyolefin futures had narrow - range fluctuations. Polyethylene supply decreased slightly, and demand improvement was limited. Polypropylene supply is expected to increase, and short - term demand is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of unified benzene rebounded after a decline. Domestic production decreased slightly, imports are expected to shrink, and ports continued to destock. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures had narrow - range fluctuations. The cost end provides support, but there is a lack of one - sided driving force. Domestic production is expected to increase [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated narrowly, with PX rising rapidly at the end of the session and PTA following. PX supply - demand is expected to improve, and attention should be paid to oil prices and demand recovery [4] - Ethylene glycol prices fell below 4400 yuan/ton. Ports are accumulating inventory, and it is recommended to pay attention to demand recovery [4] - Short - fiber supply and demand are stable, and it is recommended to consider long - term allocation. Bottle chip processing margins are low, and capacity over - supply is a long - term pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fell smoothly. Ports are rapidly accumulating inventory, and the short - term market is weak [5] - Urea prices rebounded slightly, but the short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is affected by sentiment and export news [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC is in a weak operation. Supply is high, demand is insufficient, and prices are expected to be weak [6] - Caustic soda is in a strong operation. Supply has decreased slightly, and short - term prices are expected to be strong, but long - term supply pressure remains [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Unified soda ash prices weakened. The industry is accumulating inventory, and long - term supply exceeds demand [7] - Glass prices fluctuated narrowly. The industry may continue to accumulate inventory, but cost increases are expected to prevent prices from falling below previous lows [7]
化工日报:市场震荡运行,关注美俄元首会面情况-20250814
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 07:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the meeting between the US and Russian presidents. In the medium term, as global refineries reach their highest annual operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift from strong to weak. The oil market may decline in the second half of the year unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia [1] - PX supply is expected to increase, but the increase is limited. The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to a loose balance, but PX remains in a low - inventory state. The PXN has support at the bottom, but the floating price of PX has shown some weakness [1] - In the short term, the supply - demand situation of PTA has improved due to maintenance, but it is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August. The mainstream suppliers' active sales are putting pressure on prices [2] - The polyester operating rate is 88.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.7%). The terminal weaving industry's raw material restocking was driven by anti - involution sentiment in July, but the demand has not fundamentally improved. The polyester load remains firm in the short term [2] - The spot production profit of PF is 102 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton). The demand for PF has improved slightly but is still limited, and the near - month 09 contract is under pressure from the forced cancellation of warehouse receipts [3] - The spot processing fee of PR is 393 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 27 yuan/ton). Major polyester bottle - chip factories will continue to cut production in August, and the processing fee is expected to recover [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][15] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA, as well as Chinese and Asian PX [28][31][35] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing industries [48][50][59] PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn operating rates, processing fees, and in - factory inventory available days [68][72][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [88][93][96]