Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate differential deepened. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasuries both increased, indicating a rise in inflation expectations [1][16]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed marginal easing, while the domestic interbank funding situation remained balanced, initially tightening and then loosening. The yield spread between 10Y and 1Y bonds widened [1][23]. Market Trading Activity, Volatility, and Liquidity - Market trading activity continued to rise, with the volatility of the CSI 1000, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index all increasing. Sectors such as military, media, computing, retail, and consumer services had trading activity above the 80th percentile [2][28]. - The volatility of the CSI 1000, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index increased, while the volatility of various sectors remained below the 80th historical percentile [2][35]. - Market liquidity indicators improved, but all sectors remained below the 50th historical percentile [2][40]. Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, computing, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors had the highest research activity, while banking, real estate, transportation, petroleum and petrochemicals, and retail sectors saw a month-on-month increase in research activity [3][47]. Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027 were adjusted, with increases in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, chemicals, light industry, electronics, and real estate [4][21]. - The net profit forecasts for the ChiNext Index and CSI 500 for 2026/2027 were raised, while the forecasts for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 were adjusted up and down, respectively [4][23]. - Mid-cap and small-cap growth sectors saw upward adjustments in their net profit forecasts for 2026/2027, while mid-cap and small-cap value sectors were adjusted down [4][27]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity rebounded, continuing to net buy A-shares. The trading volume ratio in sectors such as computing, home appliances, and non-bank financials increased, while it decreased in communication, electronics, and electric new energy sectors [5][32]. - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, the main net purchases were in TMT, machinery, and military sectors, while net sales occurred in electric new energy, construction, and agriculture sectors [5][33]. Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity slightly declined but remained at a relatively high level since November 2025. The net purchases were mainly in TMT, non-bank financials, and electric new energy sectors, while net sales occurred in building materials and petroleum and petrochemicals [6][35]. - The proportion of financing purchases in the pharmaceutical, construction, and coal sectors increased month-on-month [6][38]. Hot Stocks on the Dragon and Tiger List - The trading activity on the Dragon and Tiger list continued to rise, with the total trading volume and its proportion of total A-share trading both increasing. The military, media, and automotive sectors had relatively high and rising trading volumes on this list [7][41]. Active Equity Fund Positions and ETF Trends - Active equity funds significantly reduced their positions, while ETFs experienced substantial net redemptions. Active equity funds mainly increased positions in petroleum and petrochemicals, real estate, and coal sectors, while reducing positions in TMT, military, and machinery sectors [8][46]. - The correlation of active equity funds with small-cap growth and large/small-cap value increased, while the correlation with large/mid-cap growth and mid-cap value decreased [8][48]. - New equity fund establishment scales increased, with both active and passive funds seeing a rise in establishment [8][50]. - ETFs tracking indices such as the Shanghai 300, STAR 50, and Shanghai 50 saw major net redemptions, while those tracking computing, non-ferrous metals, and media sectors saw major net purchases [8][52].

宏 观 研 究 经济数据 2026 年 01 月 19 日 国 内 经 济 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com ⚫ 核心观点：服务消费改善、化债"挤出效应"缓和、新经济景气修复，是三大新变化。 GDP：商品内需偏弱，但服务消费与外需改善，支撑四季度经济保持韧性。四季度实际 GDP 同比高基数下仍录得 4.5%的较高增速，季调环比（1.2%）较三季度（1.1%）进一 步回升；拆分结构看，第二产业增加值增速明显回落，反映固定投资走弱、商品消费下行 的影响；但出口保持高增长，服务业零售额也持续回升，适度对冲了总量下行压力。 消费：限额以下商品零售走弱，但服务消费继续改善、以旧换新类商品出现筑底。12 月 社零回落主因限额以下商品零售（回落 0.5 个百分点至 3.1%）。与必需品消费需求前置 有关、人流出行边际走弱有关；但服务零售额累计同比提升 0.1 个百分点至 5.5%，文娱 等 ...

Fixed Income - In 2025, China's total foreign trade import and export reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a historical high, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [7] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates starting January 19 [8] - The bond market is expected to perform better than anticipated in 2026, with a focus on potential rebounds in long-term bonds [10] - The average issuance rate for AA+ and below urban investment bonds and industrial bonds is in the range of 2.3-2.5% [13] New Consumption - In December 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,136 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [17] - Urban and rural retail sales in December were 38,429 billion yuan and 6,707 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 0.7% and 1.7% [18] - The growth rate of catering retail sales outpaced that of goods, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [19] Pharmaceutical Industry - The US tumor gene testing industry is accelerating, with significant opportunities in the domestic market [21] - The pharmaceutical index fell by 0.68%, with a relative underperformance compared to the CSI 300 index [22] - The report suggests focusing on innovative drug companies and medical technology sectors, highlighting companies like China Biologic Products and Shanghai Yizhong [25] - The domestic market for MRD and early tumor screening is expected to grow rapidly, mirroring trends in the US [23] Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - In 2025, China's total electricity consumption exceeded 10 trillion kWh for the first time, with the tertiary industry and urban residents contributing 50% to the growth [32] - The National Grid's investment plan for the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, marking the highest historical investment in the grid [35] - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing power supply quality and the need for a robust grid to accommodate increasing electricity demand [34] Technology and Robotics - The global humanoid robot shipment is projected to reach 13,318 units in 2025, with significant contributions from Chinese manufacturers [27] - The report highlights key companies in the humanoid robot supply chain, including KAIT and Dingzhi Technology, which are making strides in product development [28] - The North Exchange technology growth stocks showed a median increase of +1.89% during the reporting period [28]

Report Summary - The annual GDP growth rate in 2025 was 5%, achieving the annual target. Exports grew by 5.5%, consumption by 3.7%, and investment declined by 3.8%. Compared with 2024, the economic structure was further transformed, with high-tech industries standing out. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.2 pct, exports decreased by 0.3 pct, and investment growth declined by 7 pct [3]. - In December, the production of the manufacturing industry improved significantly, while the growth rate of the mining industry declined. The year-on-year growth rates of the mining, manufacturing, and production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water industries were 5.4%, 5.7%, and 0.8% respectively, with changes of -0.9 pct, +1.1 pct, and -3.5 pct compared to the previous month [1]. - The service industry's business climate improved, especially the producer services. In December, the production index increased by 5% year-on-year, up 0.8 pct from the previous month. Among service industries, information software, leasing and business services, and the financial industry increased by 14.8%, 11.3%, and 6.5% respectively, with growth rates up 1.9 pct, 2.9 pct, and 1.4 pct from the previous month [2]. - In December, the growth rate of the three major investment categories declined, but the investment growth rate of some high-tech manufacturing industries showed resilience. The investment growth rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate were -10.6%, -16.0%, and -35.8% respectively, down 6.1 pct, 4.0 pct, and 5.5 pct from the previous month [4]. - Real estate sales showed marginal stabilization, and new construction and completion improved. In December, the year-on-year sales volume and area of commercial housing were -23.6% and -15.6% respectively, with growth rates up 1.5 pct and 1.7 pct from the previous month. The year-on-year unit price was -9.5%, almost the same as the previous month. In terms of investment, the new construction and completion areas of real estate improved, with year-on-year rates of -19.4% and -18.3% respectively [4]. - Consumption growth slowed down, and the year-on-year growth of catering revenue was weaker than the previous month. In December, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year-on-year, down 0.4 pct from the previous month and lower than the market consensus forecast of 1.48%. Both catering revenue and commodity sales declined from the previous month [4][5]. - In commodity retail, post-real estate cycle products improved, while general consumer goods weakened. In December, the sales growth rates of decoration materials, furniture, home appliances, and automobiles improved compared to the previous month. In contrast, the retail growth rates of grains, oils, beverages, office supplies, and clothing declined. Although precious metals rose rapidly in December, the sales growth rate of gold and silver jewelry declined for the second consecutive month [5]. - In the short term, interest rates showed a muted reaction to economic data. After the data release, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fluctuated by only about 0.3 bp. In the medium to long term, the annual economic data was generally in line with expectations. Two trends emerged: economic structural transformation and improved internal growth momentum. For 2026, "anti-involution" and rising prices suggest limited downside for interest rates [6]. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The 2025 economic data shows that the economy achieved the growth target, with structural transformation and high-tech industry development being prominent features [3]. - In December, there were mixed trends across different sectors, with manufacturing production improving, service industry business climate rising, investment growth slowing, and consumption growth weakening [1][2][4]. - In the medium to long term, the economic structure is transforming, and internal growth momentum is improving. Interest rates are expected to have limited downside in 2026 [6].

Economic Overview - The national economy achieved a GDP growth of 5% for the year, successfully meeting the target [2][11] - Exports continued to support growth, benefiting from reduced trade disruptions post the China-US Kuala Lumpur Agreement, with strong growth in the electronic and high-tech product sectors [2] - Investment saw a further decline, with all three major investment categories experiencing downward trends, particularly in manufacturing and real estate [2][4] Industrial Production - Industrial production showed signs of recovery, with the industrial added value for December increasing by 5.2% year-on-year [3] - The mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors reported growth rates of 5.4%, 5.7%, and 0.8% respectively [3] - Exports contributed positively to industrial production, with a year-on-year increase in export delivery value of 3.2% [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 15.1%, with private investment dropping by 17.2% [4] - Real estate investment experienced a significant decline of 35.8%, while manufacturing investment fell by 10.5% [4] - Infrastructure investment also faced challenges, with traditional and new standards showing declines of 15.9% and 12.2% respectively [4] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth slowed to 0.9% in December, marking a new low since 2023, influenced by the real estate cycle and consumer debt [7] - Service consumption showed resilience, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.5%, supported by policy initiatives [7] - Essential consumer goods saw a decline in growth, while discretionary goods showed a narrowing decline [7] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area saw a year-on-year decline of 15.6%, although the rate of decline improved compared to November [8] - New construction area decreased by 19.4%, while the completion area also faced a decline [8] - Housing prices continued to drop across various city tiers, with both new and second-hand residential prices decreasing [8] Employment and Economic Stability - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, consistent with previous months [11] - Overall, the economy is facing challenges from external uncertainties and ongoing structural adjustments, with a focus on expanding consumption as a key growth strategy for 2026 [11]

Economic Performance - In December, the national GDP growth for the year reached 5%, successfully meeting the target[10] - The fixed asset investment in December saw a year-on-year decline of 15.1%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The manufacturing investment dropped by 10.5%, while real estate investment fell by 35.8%[4] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in December decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 0.9%, marking the lowest level since 2023[19] - Service retail sales continued to rise, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.5%, indicating strong resilience in service consumption[19] - The average growth rate of essential consumer goods increased to 3.2%, while discretionary goods saw a decline of 4.4%[22] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in December grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with significant contributions from equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries[11] - The mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors reported growth rates of 5.4%, 5.7%, and 0.8% respectively[11] Real Estate Market - The sales area of real estate in December experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.6%, although this was an improvement from November[25] - Housing prices continued to decline, with both new and second-hand residential prices showing a widening year-on-year drop[10] Employment and Future Outlook - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, consistent with the previous month and year[26] - The report emphasizes that expanding consumption is crucial for stabilizing growth in 2026, with "new infrastructure" and "energy infrastructure" as potential short-term strategies[26]

1月19日，香港恒生指数收跌1.05%，恒生科技指数跌1.24%。 | 科网股普跌，哔哩哔哩大跌近7%，华虹半导体、阿里健康、阿里巴巴均跌超3%，中芯国际、商汤、快手均下跌。 | | --- | | 德琪医药-B | 3.800 | -6.40% | | --- | --- | --- | | 6996.HK | | | | 华花生物-B | 10.940 | -6.34% | | 2396.HK | | | | 思路迪医药股份 | 5.510 | -6.29% | | 1244.HK | | | | 中国生物制药 | 6.520 | -6.19% | | 1177.HK | | | | 加科思-B | 6.940 | -6.09% | | 1167.HK | | | | 维亚生物 | 1.940 | -5.83% | | 1873.HK | | | | 轩竹生物-B | 66.600 | -5.73% | | 2575.HK | | | | 英矽智能 | 52.050 | -5.71% | | 2406 HK | | | 多只AI应用概念股大跌，MINIMAX跌超13%，智谱跌超10%，美图公司跌超7%。 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 韩利明 山东某某集团医用高分子制品股份有限公司昆明销售分公司业务员慈某龙，以现金、美元、金条为利益输送工具，借注射器、 输液器、留置针等临床常用低值医用耗材为载体，长期向普洱市人民医院相关人员行贿，该院沦为利益勾兑的温床。 日前，国家医保局官微通报"慈某龙行贿案"，正式揭开这起横跨十余年、牵涉医院超15个科室，覆盖财务部主任、临床科室主 任、护士长及普通护士等多层级人员的医疗腐败案件细节。 业内看来，该案直指医疗行业中极具隐蔽性与打击难度的"集体受贿"顽疾。国家医保局主动公开该典型案例，释放出聚焦行贿 主体、强化全链条法律追责，坚决破解"法不责众"腐败困境的明确整治信号。 图片来源：国家医保局官微 我国"十四五"时期已建成全球规模最大的医疗保障网，医疗保障制度持续完善，群众就医用药负担显著减轻，全民健康水平稳 步提升。在此背景下，医疗反腐工作正不断向纵深推进，成为维护医疗行业良性生态的重要抓手。 有业内人士对21世纪经济报道记者表示，医疗行业直接关乎百姓生命健康，持续深化反腐工作，不仅是捍卫群众切身利益、维 护行业清风正气的关键举措，更能为医药行业长久良性发展筑牢根基。随着各项整治措施落 ...

专题：2025第二十届中国品牌人物年会 品牌联盟网讯 品牌人物界的"奥斯卡"喜迎20周年，为中国品牌凝聚智慧与力量！2025（第二十届）中 国品牌人物年会于12月29日在深圳开幕，本次盛会以"谁为中国赢得尊敬"为主题，汇聚政、商、产、 学、媒等各界精英逾两千人参与活动，共同回顾中国品牌发展的光辉历程，展望未来品牌建设的新趋势 与新机遇。 宋志平提出品牌是企业最高境界、质量是品牌根基、品牌建设是一把手工程三大核心观点。 在年会荣耀盛典上荣获"TopBrand 中国品牌人物终身成就奖"的中国上市公司协会会长、中国企业改革 与发展研究会首席专家、2019中国十大品牌年度人物宋志平进行了主题分享。宋志平被誉为中国企业界 的 "双料掌门"，是首位同时执掌两家央企的董事长，曾带领中国建材集团、国药集团双双跻身"世界 500强"，其管理实践被广泛视为国有企业市场化改革的成功范本。他不仅是卓有成效的企业家，更是深 具洞见的企业思想家，长期致力于总结并传播扎根于中国土壤的管理智慧，其提出的"整合优化""三精 管理" 等核心理念，对中国企业的高质量发展与品牌建设产生了深远影响。 分享全文如下： 第一，品牌是企业经营的最高境界。 ...

Group 1: Wind Power and Robotics - Fujian Province's Changzao is involved in the early-stage work and development of wind power projects, being one of the companies in the wind power sector [2] - Hongsheng Huayuan has become a leading supplier of transmission line towers in China, controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [2] - Oko Yi's spiral milling tools and gear hobbing tools have been validated by customers for use in humanoid robot transmission systems, with a projected net profit increase of 67.53%-91.96% in 2025 [2] - Fenglong Co. has seen a significant stock performance, with 22 consecutive trading days of gains [2] - Daying Electronics has successfully developed a resistive electronic skin sample for humanoid robots, aiming to accelerate the layout of flexible tactile sensing products [2] Group 2: Aerospace and Advanced Materials - Aerospace projects are receiving investment from Yuexiu Capital, which manages funds that have invested in several aerospace industry projects [2] - The company Huajing Technology provides smart manufacturing services across various sectors, including home appliances and automotive electronics [4] - The company Lier Chemical is a leading producer of herbicides in China, with significant market share in products like Bick Grass and Toxic Weeding Dragon [5] - The company Guobai is the largest department store chain in Guangzhou, actively developing customized products and indirectly investing in aerospace through its fund [4][5] Group 3: Electric Vehicles and Energy Storage - Hengda High-tech's silicon-carbon anode materials are designed to enhance energy density and fast-charging performance in new energy batteries, applicable in consumer electronics and electric vehicles [3] - The company Baotong Energy is establishing a new aluminum technology company to focus on the electrolytic aluminum business [4] - The company Xinyuan has signed a cooperation agreement to estimate sales of nickel powder products between 4.3 billion to 5 billion yuan [4] Group 4: Consumer Goods and Retail - Jilin Province's leading bottled water brand, Qianyang Spring, has launched new products like birch tree juice [4] - The company Guangbai is expanding its product offerings with diamond DIY and brand IP blind boxes [4] - The company Dalian Shengya operates several scenic projects, including marine and polar worlds, contributing to tourism in the region [4]