Core Insights - The report suggests adopting a "steady first, with growth in mind" approach to maintain gains in the second half of the spring market and to reserve space for future positioning [2][15] - The spring market of 2026 began on December 17, 2025, driven by favorable policies and early capital allocation, leading to a strong performance in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 17 consecutive days of gains [9][13] - The convertible bond market experienced rapid growth followed by volatility, with median prices and conversion premiums reaching historical highs, indicating a significant reduction in the safety cushion of bonds [9][10] Market Trends - Historical data from 2017 to 2025 indicates that the market typically experiences a "rise then fall" pattern from the Spring Festival to the National People's Congress (NPC) [13][14] - The report highlights that during the period from the Spring Festival to the NPC, the market is likely to see a "spring surge," with small-cap growth stocks outperforming, particularly in TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [13][14] - As the NPC approaches, the market may shift towards defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and utilities, with high valuations in convertible bonds facing potential compression due to stock adjustments [13][14] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy, transitioning from aggressive profit-seeking to balancing returns and risks as the market moves into the NPC and Q1 earnings preview phase [15] - It emphasizes the importance of selecting convertible bonds with solid performance and reasonable pricing, while also considering high-quality, high-priced convertible bonds with clear growth prospects [15] - The report identifies sectors such as AI computing, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and post-cycle industries like consumption and real estate as favorable for convertible bonds due to improving supply-demand dynamics and favorable policy catalysts [15]

五震荡走低，险守二十天线。恒指随外围低开 132 港股回顾 点，跌幅随即扩大至 247 点，低见 23730 点，其后跌幅 一度收窄至仅 20 点，午后大盘走势偏软，尾盘沽压再 度扩大。截至收盘，恒指收报 23831 点，下跌 145 点或 0.61%；国指收报 9656 点，下跌 47 点或 0.49%，大市 成交进一步减至 827.99 亿。港股通录得净流入资金 4.84 亿，其中港股通(沪)净流入 2.83 亿，港股通(深)净 流入 2.01 亿。板块方面，本地地产、软件、5G 概念板 块跌幅靠前；黄金股逆市走强。 港股马年首个交易日主要股指表现分化，恒生指 数跌 1.1%报 26413.35 点，恒生科技指数跌 2.91% 报 5211.5 点，恒生中国企业指数跌 1.22%报 8959.56 点，恒生红筹指数逆势涨 0.09%报 4384.28 点，大市成交 1653.73 亿港元。盘面 上，互联网科技股普跌，百度跌超 6%，阿里巴巴 跌近 5%；半导体股走弱，华虹半导体跌近 6%，中 芯国际跌超 3%。国产 AI 大模型板块逆势走强， 智谱涨近 43%，MiniMax 涨超 14%，两者市值均突 ...

2026 年 02 月 22 日 策略类●证券研究报告 节后春季行情可能延续，科技和周期占优 定期报告 投资要点 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 分析师 张欣诺 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525110001 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 2026.2.13 主动偏股基金加仓有色、通信，减仓医药 2026.2.12 震荡波动呈现收敛，新股板块向上活跃周期 或依然在途-华金证券新股周报 2026.2.8 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 25 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 节前市场担忧的风险因素在假期期间基本未发生。（1）春节期间出行和消费数据 偏好，对经济和盈利的担忧未出现。一是春节期间出行数据同比增长明显。二是春 节期间消费数据也偏好。（2）美国通胀回落，流动性收紧的担忧未出现。一是美 国 1 月 CPI 同比增速从 2025 年 12 月的 2.7%下滑至 2.4%，同时 1 月非农时薪同 比增速继续下滑至 3.71%，通胀和就业市场继续降温，美联储年内大概率继续降息。 二是美国 ...

Group 1 - The Lanzhou Market Supervision Administration is conducting a special action named "Guarding Four Safety" focusing on key areas such as food and drug safety, special equipment, and fireworks sales to ensure consumer safety during the festival season [1][2] - Inspection teams are deployed to various businesses including restaurants, pharmacies, and supermarkets to conduct thorough checks on food safety, pricing, and product quality, while also ensuring compliance in fireworks sales [3][4][6] - The inspections include verifying business qualifications, product compliance, and rectifying any identified issues to enforce safety responsibilities among operators [3][4][6] Group 2 - Specific areas of focus for inspections include food ingredient sourcing, drug storage, and compliance with pricing regulations, alongside rigorous checks on fireworks sales licenses and inventory records [4][10] - In regions with no fireworks sales points, inspection teams are concentrating on other critical areas to maintain market safety and order during the festival [8] - The enforcement actions include strict checks on fireworks retail points, with immediate corrective measures taken against any violations such as selling unlicensed or expired products [12]

最近看到不少人在聊春节前上市公司分红的事，这两个月里有235家公司拿出真金白银回馈股东，总金额超3400亿，比去年同期还多，后面还有公司要跟 进。很多朋友说，这说明市场基本面越来越扎实，相关板块肯定值得关注。但我想起去年一位同事的经历，他当时盯着消费提振的政策，觉得调整了一阵的 白酒板块肯定要起来，结果一则突发消息让他措手不及，亏了不少才醒悟——我们总以为消息能决定走势，却忽略了最核心的东西。 一、为什么"意外波动"总防不胜防？ 很多人遇到市场突发变化，都会归结为"黑天鹅"，觉得完全防不胜防。就拿去年的白酒板块来说，当时大家都盼着消费政策落地，对调整后的板块充满期 待，结果一则消息让板块走势急转直下，不少人都懵了，觉得毫无预兆。但事后用数据复盘才发现，所谓的意外其实早有信号。 看图1： 图里的橙色柱体是反映机构资金交易活跃程度的「机构库存」数据，它只代表机构资金有没有积极参与交易，和买卖方向无关。从图里能看到，早在板块出 现几次反弹时，「机构库存」就已经没有活跃迹象，甚至年初那波反弹结束后，机构就不再积极参与交易了。这时候不管消息面看起来多利好，没有资金的 持续参与，板块走势自然会走弱。我们之所以觉得是意外， ...

最近港股市场分化得让人摸不着头脑：有的板块借着消息单日大涨超20%，有的却在热门行情里突然跳水。身边有朋友看到AI应用股走强就追进去，结果刚 买就遇上震荡；还有人看到互联网科技股普跌，慌慌张张割了肉，转头就看着其他相关板块涨起来。其实很多人都陷入了同一个主观误区：把新闻消息直接 等同于涨跌信号，凭着直觉追涨杀跌，却从来没思考过，消息背后到底是谁在主导交易。今天就结合真实的市场情况和量化大数据，聊聊怎么跳出这种直觉 陷阱，建立更靠谱的投资思维。 图里的橙色柱体是「机构库存」数据，它反映的是机构资金有没有积极参与交易。消息出来后，虽然股价先涨后跌，但「机构库存」数据从消息公布第三天 就开始活跃，甚至在股价调整的时候，数据还在不断增加——这说明机构资金一直在积极参与，所谓的"利空下跌"只是表面的诱骗。我们的直觉之所以错， 是因为把消息当成了结果，却没意识到，消息只是机构用来博弈的工具，真正决定走势的是机构的交易态度。二、利好兑现反而跌，真的是"见光死"吗？ 还有更反直觉的情况：有只个股公布中报，净利润暴增8倍，妥妥的超级利好，但股价反而跌了近10%。当时行情整体火爆，身边有人觉得这是"黄金坑"， 赶紧抄底，结果套了 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经东京2月18日电（记者李诗萌 刘春燕）日本财务省18日公布的贸易统计结果显示，受美国关税政策持续影响，1月日本对美出口额连续第二个月 同比下降。 数据显示，受医药、汽车、金属加工机械等产品出口减少影响，1月日本对美国出口额同比下降5.0%至1.46万亿日元（1美元约合156.91日元）。 日本当月贸易逆差约达1.15万亿日元，其中出口总额同比增长16.8%至9.19万亿日元，进口总额同比下降2.5%至10.34万亿日元。 分析人士表示，日本1月贸易逆差低于市场预期，主要得益于亚洲市场的强劲需求部分抵消了对美出口的萎缩。 编辑：幸骊莎 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu province has 20 brands recognized in the latest 2025 China Consumer Brand list, highlighting the region's strong presence in various consumer goods sectors [1] Group 1: Brand Recognition - The "China Consumer Brand" list includes brands that are innovative, high-quality, and reputable, with a total of 276 brands recognized [1] - Among the recognized enterprise brands, Jiangsu's Yanghe and Hengshun are listed as "Historical Classics" [1] - Eight brands from Jiangsu, including Shenghong, Hongdou, and Saint Elephant, are categorized as "Era Quality Products" [1] - Brands like Ecovacs and Suqian are recognized as "Trendy New Brands" [1] Group 2: Regional and Specialized Brands - Five regional brands from Jiangsu, such as Danyang Glasses and Changshu Outdoor Sportswear, have been included in the list [1] - Specific product brands for targeted demographics include Goodbaby and Gong An Kang for "Maternal and Child Products," and Su Yun for "Assistive Products" [1]

Group 1 - The Lanzhou Market Supervision Administration emphasizes the importance of consumer safety during the Spring Festival, focusing on the regulation of three products and one special item to ensure a safe and stable holiday for the public [1] - Various inspection teams conducted checks on restaurants and supermarkets, ensuring compliance with pricing, food safety, and hygiene standards [3][5] - Specific inspections included verifying food sourcing, health management of staff, and sanitation practices in food preparation areas [5][7] Group 2 - The inspections targeted key areas such as large supermarkets, markets, and pharmacies, focusing on food and drug safety, price regulation, and product quality [5] - Enforcement actions were taken against price gouging, counterfeit goods, and other violations, with immediate feedback provided to businesses for necessary corrections [3][5] - The inspections also included checks on fireworks sales and the proper labeling of bulk food items, ensuring compliance with safety regulations [7]

Group 1 - The core argument is that despite the U.S. imposing tariffs on China during the Trump administration, China has not only remained unscathed but has made significant advancements in various sectors, even surpassing the U.S. in some areas [1] - Steven Ratner, a former advisor during the Obama administration, noted that the U.S. has not won the trade war, highlighting China's progress in fields like electric vehicles, industrial robotics, and pharmaceuticals [1] - China has doubled the U.S. in installed power generation capacity and has a clear cost advantage, while the U.S. lacks coherent industrial policies, which hampers its global competitiveness [1] Group 2 - The U.S. attempts to extend tariff threats to Iran's trade partners, particularly targeting China, which imports 80% of Iran's oil, indicating a miscalculation of China's response [3] - The U.S. struggles with internal issues, including a focus on short-term profits by private capital, which hinders long-term investments in research and innovation, leading to a competitive disadvantage against China [3] - The bipartisan consensus in the U.S. on blaming China for domestic issues reflects a misunderstanding of the root causes of its economic challenges [3] Group 3 - France's call for the EU to impose a 30% tariff on Chinese goods is seen as misguided, as it fails to address the deeper issues affecting European industry, such as the loss of cheap energy sources due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [5] - France's significant trade relationship with China, particularly in wine and brandy, highlights the potential economic repercussions of its aggressive stance against China [5] - The EU's lack of unity on trade policies towards China suggests that France's actions could harm its own interests while benefiting the U.S. [5] Group 4 - The essence of international competition lies in strengthening domestic capabilities rather than engaging in tariff wars, as emphasized by Ratner [7] - The U.S. and Europe must recognize that protectionism is not a viable solution and that deep cooperation with China is necessary to enhance competitiveness in emerging sectors [7] - The interconnectedness of the global economy means that protectionist measures could ultimately harm the countries that implement them [7]