策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） 品种观点参考 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：近期地缘风险降温，美国大豆产区天气状况持续改善，美豆期价呈现明显的天气市波动特征， 美豆期价重心有所下移。国内豆类市场交易逻辑未变，跟随外盘美豆期价波动节奏，短期资金出现松动加 剧盘面波动，期价震荡偏弱运行。 品种：棕榈油(P) 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 偏 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the agricultural products futures market in the report shows that the short - term performance of soybean meal futures is stronger than that of oils and fats, and the short - term is in a volatile state. The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors such as international oil prices and inventory, showing a relatively weak trend in the short - term [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is weakly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East cools down and the weather is favorable for crop growth, the decline in the US soybean oil futures price drags down the US soybean futures price. The domestic soybean market follows the fluctuation rhythm of the US soybean futures price. With stable market funds, the short - term soybean meal futures price is stronger than that of oils and fats and runs in a volatile manner [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The oils and fats market as a whole follows the decline of international oil prices. After returning to the fundamentals, the inventory of the three major oils shows an obvious increasing trend, and the inventory pressure appears. Domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and follows the price fluctuations of other oils and international palm oil futures, running weakly in the short - term [7]. Other Related Information - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For soybean meal 2509, soybean oil 2509, and palm 2509, the short - term and medium - term views are strong, while the intraday view is weakly volatile. Different varieties are affected by different factors such as import arrival rhythm, US biofuel policy, and biodiesel attributes [6].

品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏多氛围弱化，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏多氛围弱化，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-06-24 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着地缘因素弱化，能化商品期货的共性利多边际效应递减，胶市供需结 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-06-24 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘因素弱化，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论感谢伊朗提前发出通知，称其对美军基地的导弹袭击非常 微弱，并呼吁结束以色列与伊朗之间的冲突。根据伊朗媒体报道，伊朗军方用了美国打击伊朗同等 数量的导弹进行了对等打击，并且未 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market shows an intraday view of being weakly volatile and a medium - term view of being strongly - trending. The core logic is that favorable rainfall in US soybean - producing areas has improved the weather outlook, causing US soybean futures prices to fluctuate weakly. The domestic soybean market's trading logic remains unchanged, and the room for further decline is limited after giving back some weather - risk premiums following the US soybean futures prices [5]. - The palm oil market has an intraday view of being weakly volatile and a medium - term view of being strongly - trending. The core logic is that with the sharp drop in international oil prices, the energy spill - over support for the oil and fat market has weakened. The palm oil market is a short - term game between increasing production and strong demand, and strong export demand helps offset some inventory pressure. The domestic palm oil market lacks its own drivers and follows other oils and the international palm oil futures prices [6][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term (within a week) is strongly - trending, medium - term (two weeks to a month) is strongly - trending, and intraday is weakly volatile. The reference view is weakly volatile. - **Core Logic**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [7]. Soybean Oil (2509) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term is strongly - trending, medium - term is strongly - trending, and intraday is weakly volatile. The reference view is weakly volatile. - **Core Logic**: US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7]. Palm Oil (2509) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term is strongly - trending, medium - term is strongly - trending, and intraday is weakly volatile. The reference view is weakly volatile. - **Core Logic**: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-06-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 强势运行 | 地缘因素增强，甲醇强势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：强势运行 核心逻辑：上周末，美国对伊朗核设施展开轰炸，揭开美伊战争序幕。伊朗誓言袭击美国在中东的 军事基地，地缘风险再度增强，导致能化商品溢价提升。作为全球重要的甲醇生产与出口国，伊朗 是我国重要的甲醇进口来源国。目前 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 23 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆产区天气改善，美豆期价震荡偏弱运行。随着中美贸易关系持续向好，市场情绪得到修复， 美豆出口向好的预期不变。此外，美豆压榨需求受益于生物燃料政策预期的推动，存在增量预期。这些因 素均对美豆价格构成有力支撑，美豆期价仍将保持易涨难跌走势。目前豆粕交易逻辑并未改变，来自于原 料大豆进口成本攀升的预期，令豆粕期价跟随外盘美豆反弹节奏。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 ...

宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-06-20 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘因素支撑，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：本周以来，伊朗和以色列冲突持续升级，双方导弹空袭目标转向能源设施，导致能化商 品溢价提升。作为全球重要的甲醇生产与出口国，伊朗是我国重要的甲醇进口来源国。目前伊朗境 内有 4 套总计 660 万吨的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with the SC2508 contract showing an upward trend, and will be in a volatile state in the medium - term. The intraday view is that it will be volatile and biased towards strength [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - The domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract closed up 2.77% to 574.5 yuan/barrel on Thursday night [5]. Market Outlook - The domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and biased - towards - strength trend on Friday [5]. Core Driving Logic - The conflict between Iran and Israel has continued to escalate this week, with missile attacks on energy facilities, increasing the premium of energy - chemical commodities. The presence of the US three - aircraft - carrier fleet and military support from other countries in the Middle East has increased the risk of conflict expansion [5]. - Merchant ships and oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz have faced increasing electronic interference, with an oil tanker collision near the strait, potentially disrupting crude oil transportation and expanding the premium space due to geopolitical risks [5].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：公共节日，美国市场周四休市。国内粕类期价整体走强，在进口成本支撑和远期采购缺口仍存 的背景下，远期供应受进口成本推动水涨船高，资金并未出现松动，短期回落不改上行趋势，阶段性走势 依旧偏强。 品种：棕榈油(P) 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 偏强 偏强 震荡 偏强 震荡 ...