Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it will fluctuate strongly [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The sector sentiment remains strong, and they will have wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: They will have wide - range fluctuations [2][13]. - **Coke**: A round of price increase has started, and it will fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, it will fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it will stabilize with fluctuations [2][21]. - **Log**: The main contract is switching, and it will have wide - range fluctuations [2][24]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 764.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton (0.07%). The positions increased by 1,947 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) rose 4.0 yuan/ton to 845.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, the national consumer price index rose 0.1% year - on - year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,133 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (1.10%); Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,273 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.24%). Spot prices in various regions generally increased [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Steel production and inventory data in late June 2025 were released. Vietnam announced anti - dumping duties on Chinese steel, excluding coil products wider than 1.88m [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [12]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon - **Fundamentals**: Silicon ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,460 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan/ton; Manganese ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,746 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. Spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon in some regions increased [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ghana plans to build a manganese refinery, and there are price changes in silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon in the market [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal JM2509 closed at 913 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (1.78%); Coke J2509 closed at 1,519.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan/ton (1.50%). Spot prices of some coking coal and coke remained stable [18]. - **Price and Position**: There are price quotes for coking coal in northern ports, and position changes in the top 20 members of DCE [18][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for coke, 1 for coking coal [20]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Performance**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: There are price quotes for steam coal in southern ports and domestic origins, and no position changes in the top 20 members of ZCE [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [23]. Log - **Fundamentals**: The 2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. There are price and position data for different contracts, and price quotes for various log products in the spot market [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US president extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [26].

2025年07月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本预期或有抬升，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：成本预期或有抬升，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 9 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 11 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 763. 5 | 27.0 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of trade tensions, initiated by President Trump's unilateral tariff actions, has prompted a strong response from various countries, indicating a shift from unilateralism to a more diversified and autonomous trade strategy [1][8]. Group 1: Global Reactions - India has announced plans to impose retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., showcasing a strategic response to U.S. pressure on local manufacturing rules [3]. - The European Union, Japan, and South Korea have also expressed their intent to counteract U.S. tariffs, emphasizing the importance of protecting national interests and rejecting passive acceptance of imposed rules [4]. - The collective response from these nations indicates a growing trend of countries actively defending their economic interests against unilateral trade actions [4]. Group 2: China's Preparedness - China has been preparing for trade tensions for eight years, successfully reducing its trade dependency on the U.S. from over 20% to around 12% [6]. - The Chinese economy has shown resilience, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 2025, and a 6.3% increase in exports in May, reflecting the effectiveness of its economic reforms [6]. - China's manufacturing sector has transitioned from low-end production to high-tech and intelligent manufacturing, with significant advancements in various industries [7]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - The trade conflict has accelerated the diversification strategies of emerging economies like India and China, pushing them towards a more balanced and multipolar global trade environment [8]. - The emphasis on upgrading traditional industries and investing in new technologies, such as AI and quantum technology, highlights China's proactive approach to global supply chain challenges [7].

Core Points - The U.S. government is set to implement new unilateral tariffs starting August 1, with the President indicating that the rates could range from 10% to 70% [1][2] - The President has criticized certain trade partners, including the EU and Japan, for being too rigid in negotiations, and has threatened high tariffs, particularly on Japan [2][4] - The trade negotiations with Japan are particularly contentious over the automotive and agricultural sectors, with Japan refusing to compromise on its agricultural policies [4] - India has also drawn "red lines" in negotiations, particularly concerning agriculture and dairy products, indicating a strong stance to protect its farmers [4] - The EU is pushing for a tougher stance in negotiations with the U.S., particularly regarding high industry tariffs, and is facing potential expansion of U.S. tariffs to additional sectors [5] - Recent U.S. trade data shows a decline in both imports and exports, indicating the negative impact of the current tariff policies on the U.S. economy [6] Group 1 - The U.S. will send letters to multiple countries regarding new tariffs, with expectations of 10 to 12 letters being sent out [1] - The President has set July 9 as the deadline for tariff negotiations, indicating urgency in the discussions [1][2] - The potential for tariffs exceeding 50% could exacerbate inflation risks in the U.S. economy [2] Group 2 - Japan's core industries, particularly automotive, are significantly affected by proposed U.S. tariffs, with a 25% tariff on cars posing a major economic threat [4] - India's firm stance on agricultural tariffs reflects the sensitivity of these issues in trade negotiations [4] - The EU is advocating for a united front against U.S. tariff increases, emphasizing the need for retaliatory measures [5]

Group 1 - The event highlighted the potential for economic cooperation between Bolivia and China, particularly in the agricultural sector [1][2] - Bolivia is rich in natural resources, including the world's largest lithium reserves, and has fertile agricultural land [1][2] - The bilateral trade volume between China and Bolivia reached $2.733 billion in 2024, with a notable increase in imports from Bolivia [2] Group 2 - Bolivia's geographical indication products, such as high-altitude wines and unique coffee, are expected to enhance trade cooperation [3] - The country aims to expand its exports to China, including chicken, pork, and honey, while promoting technology transfer from China [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. will send letters to approximately 100 countries detailing new tariff rates ranging from 20% to 30% starting July 4 [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that around 123 countries were initially subject to a 10% reciprocal tariff, with a series of trade agreements expected to be announced before the deadline on July 9 [1][2] - The U.S. has only finalized trade agreements with the UK and Vietnam, while a framework agreement has been reached with China [1] Group 2 - President Trump expressed strong doubts about the prospects of U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations, threatening tariffs of 30% or 35% on Japanese imports, which is higher than the previously proposed 24% [2] - The EU is prepared to reach a principle agreement with the U.S. on tariffs but will take countermeasures if negotiations fail [2][3] - The EU is pushing for the U.S. to eliminate tariffs on EU exports as part of any framework agreement, with current tariffs on EU automobiles at 25% and on steel and aluminum at 50% [3] Group 3 - The U.S. is considering expanding tariffs to additional sectors, including wood, aerospace parts, pharmaceuticals, chips, and critical minerals [3] - Recent trade data indicates that the tariff policies are disrupting the U.S. economy, with a decline in both imports and exports in May, leading to an increased trade deficit [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the July 9 deadline for tariff negotiations is expected to cause further volatility in import and export data [4]

Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily research on the black - series commodities in the futures market, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The overall market trends are characterized by wide - range fluctuations, with thermal coal showing signs of stabilizing due to improved daily consumption [2][4][6][7][11][14][15][19][23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 715.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton (- 0.14%). The import and domestic ore prices were mostly stable, with some minor changes in the prices of Jinbuba and Super Special ores. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar, the RB2510 contract closed at 2,997 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.23%); for hot - rolled coil, the HC2510 contract closed at 3,123 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.13%). The spot prices in different regions had various changes, and the basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Industry News**: In June, the manufacturing PMI and other economic indicators showed an upward trend. Steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption data had different changes. In May, the exports of steel billets, rebar, and wire rods increased significantly [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][11]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. The spot prices of ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, manganese ore, and semi - coke showed different trends. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads also changed [11]. - **Industry News**: The prices and production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. The production of ferrosilicon in Ningxia increased, and the production of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia also showed certain changes [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: Coke is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, while coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations affected by news [2][14][15]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke decreased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also changed. The positions of the top 20 members in the DCE showed different trends [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [17]. Thermal Coal - **Market Trend**: Expected to stabilize with fluctuations due to improved daily consumption [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading yesterday. The prices of foreign trade and domestic thermal coal in different regions were reported, and the positions of the top 20 members in the ZCE showed no change [20][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [22]. Logs - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the change of the main contract [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts showed various changes. The spot prices of logs in different regions were mostly stable [23]. - **Industry News**: The US dollar index fell below 97.0 [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [25].

2025年06月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：情绪释放，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：情绪释放，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木：基差修复，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 26 日 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | 703.0 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and its major trading partners, highlighting the likelihood of a framework agreement being reached by July 9, followed by further negotiations [1][6][7]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Negotiations - Most U.S. trading partners prefer to reach a preliminary agreement by July 9, after which detailed discussions will continue [1][7]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the U.S. might extend negotiation deadlines for countries engaging in good faith discussions, such as the EU [6][8]. - President Trump expressed a willingness to extend negotiation deadlines but deemed it unnecessary, stating that the U.S. is negotiating with about 15 economies [6][8]. Group 2: EU's Position - The EU anticipates that negotiations will extend beyond the July 9 deadline, aiming for a principle agreement before focusing on specifics [7][9]. - The EU's goal is to reduce additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. on sectors like steel and automobiles, while acknowledging the challenge of eliminating the 10% baseline tariff [9][11]. - EU officials are preparing for potential retaliatory measures against the U.S. if negotiations do not yield a fair agreement, including tariffs on $95 billion worth of U.S. goods [11][12]. Group 3: Other Countries' Negotiations - Trade discussions with India and Japan are ongoing but have seen limited progress, particularly on agricultural issues and automotive tariffs [13][15]. - India is resistant to U.S. demands regarding genetically modified crops, while seeking tariff exemptions [14]. - Japan faces challenges with U.S. automotive tariffs, which remain a significant barrier to reaching an agreement [15].