Group 1 - The most active gold futures for December 2025 rose by $34.67, closing at $3641.37 per ounce, with an increase of 0.96% [1] - The increase in gold prices was supported by weak U.S. employment data, which led to a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index, reaching a five-week low [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate in August rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, marking a nearly four-year high [1] Group 2 - Non-farm payrolls in the U.S. increased by only 22,000 in August, a significant decline from the revised 79,000 in July and well below market expectations of 75,000 [1] - The report confirmed the trend of weakness in the U.S. labor market, strengthening market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] - Canada and the U.S. agreed to hold technical negotiations regarding industry tariffs, focusing on reaching consensus on a series of smaller agreements to improve Canada's position [1] Group 3 - President Trump signed an executive order implementing a U.S.-Japan trade agreement, imposing tariffs of up to 15% on most Japanese imports [2] - The agreement includes a commitment from Japan to establish a $550 billion U.S. investment fund, while the U.S. will eliminate certain tariffs on aircraft, aircraft parts, and generic drugs [2] - The OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for September 7, with analysts suggesting that the organization may approve an increase in crude oil supply [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Wide - amplitude oscillation due to repeated macro - expectations [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][7] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][11] - Silicomanganese: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][11] - Coke: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][14] - Coking coal: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][14] - Logs: Oscillation and repetition [2][16] 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs are in a state of wide - amplitude oscillation or oscillation and repetition, with the trend intensity of all commodities being 0, indicating a neutral market outlook [2][4][7] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of iron ore (12601) closed at 777.0 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan/ton with a 0.71% increase. The positions increased by 12,928 hands. Among spot prices, imported ores like Carajás fines (65%), PB (61.5%), etc. all rose by 6.0 yuan/ton, while domestic ores remained stable. Some basis and spread values also changed slightly [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures prices of RB2510 and HC2510 decreased. The trading volume and positions of RB2510 decreased, and those of HC2510 also changed. Spot prices in most regions decreased slightly. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis of RB2510 increasing by 3 yuan/ton and that of HC2510 decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: In July 2025, China's steel exports were 983.6 million tons, up 1.6% from the previous month, with the export price up 2.2%. From January to July, cumulative exports were 6798.3 million tons, up 11.0% year - on - year, but the export price was down 10.3%. In the steel union's weekly data on August 28, production, inventory, and apparent demand of some steel products changed [8][9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. The trading volume and positions of different contracts changed. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5250 yuan/ton and 5680 yuan/ton respectively. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the ferrosilicon basis increasing by 8 yuan/ton [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 3, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions were reported. In May and June 2025, India's silicomanganese export volume changed month - on - month and year - on - year [12][13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased. The trading volume and positions of JM2601 increased, while those of J2601 changed slightly. Spot prices of coking coal and coke remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis of JM2601 in Shanxi increasing by 6.5 yuan/ton [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [14] Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of different log contracts decreased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts changed significantly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the spot - 2509 basis decreasing by 46.3% [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [19]

Core Insights - The ISM reported that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August, primarily due to a decline in output, indicating ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [1] - However, the new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of the year, and the prices index reached its lowest level since February, suggesting a reduction in price volatility caused by tariffs [1] Manufacturing Index Summary - The ISM manufacturing index for August was 48.7, below the expected 49 and previous value of 48, indicating continued contraction as it remains below the neutral level of 50 [1] - The new orders index rose to 51.4, significantly above the expected 48 and previous 47.1, marking the largest monthly increase since early last year [3] - The output index fell to 47.8, dropping 3.6 points and indicating a return to contraction for the first time in three months [3] - The employment index slightly increased to 43.8 but remains one of the weakest levels since the pandemic, below the expected 45 and previous 43.4 [3] - The prices paid index was 63.7, lower than the expected 65 and previous 64.8, indicating a decrease in price pressures [3] Industry Performance - The ISM survey indicated that 10 industries experienced contraction, particularly in paper products, wood, plastics and rubber, and transportation equipment manufacturing, while 7 industries showed expansion [5] - The overall demand remains weak due to tariff uncertainties, with 69% of manufacturing GDP in contraction, although the proportion of industries in severe contraction has slightly decreased [6] Economic Context - Consumer spending in July grew at the fastest pace in four months, driven mainly by expenditures on big-ticket items like automobiles [7] - The Markit manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 53, slightly below the expected 53.3, indicating a robust performance in the manufacturing sector [8] - The chief economist at S&P Global noted that the manufacturing sector showed strong expansion over the summer, with increased hiring to meet new orders and backlogs, suggesting potential economic uplift in Q3 [9]

Core Viewpoint - Canada has decided to eliminate retaliatory tariffs on most U.S. imports, impacting approximately $21 billion in U.S. exports to Canada, including various consumer goods and appliances [3][4]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - Canada will maintain tariffs on U.S. automobiles, steel, and aluminum temporarily, indicating a strong stance in these critical sectors [4]. - The decision to adjust negotiation strategies comes amid pressure from domestic, regional, and international factors, including the urgency created by other G7 members reaching trade agreements with the U.S. [7]. - The Canadian economy is facing challenges, with a reported GDP decline of 0.4% in Q2, following a 0.5% growth in Q1, and significant drops in exports of vehicles and machinery due to U.S. tariffs [7][8]. Group 2: Future Trade Frictions - Ongoing discussions focus on five strategic areas: steel, aluminum, automobiles, copper, and softwood lumber, with existing tariffs on non-compliant imports from Canada [11]. - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper and increased anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood, raising the total tariff rate to 35.19% [11]. - The uncertainty surrounding negotiations has led to a decrease in foreign investment in Canada, with expectations that the U.S. may push for higher localization ratios and wage alignment in future talks [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend judgments and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, while ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have weak fluctuations due to poor market sentiment [2][4][6][7][10][13][15]. Summary of Each Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Judgment**: Wide - range fluctuations due to repeated macro - expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2601 contract was 787.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.38%. Imported ore prices generally decreased, with Kafan (65%) down 2 yuan/ton to 891 yuan/ton. The trend strength is 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend Judgment**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar, the RB2510 contract closed at 3,090 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton or 0.83%. For hot - rolled coils, the HC2510 contract closed at 3,355 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.21%. The trend strength for both is 0 [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Judgment**: Weak fluctuations due to poor market sentiment [2][10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon 2511 contract was 5,566 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton. The closing price of the silicomanganese 2511 contract was 5,776 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton. The trend strength for both is 0 [10]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Judgment**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The JM2601 coking coal contract closed at 1,151 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton or 2.0%. The J2601 coke contract closed at 1,643 yuan/ton, down 29.5 yuan/ton or 1.8%. The trend strength for both is 0 [13]. Logs - **Trend Judgment**: Repeated fluctuations [2][15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 log contract was 777, down 1.6% from the previous day and 3.3% from the previous week. The trend strength is 0 [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Zhongmu International (01822) reported a decline in revenue and a loss for the six months ending June 30, 2025, indicating challenges in its timber-related business [1] - The company achieved revenue of HKD 144 million, a decrease of 15.56% year-on-year [1] - The loss attributable to shareholders was HKD 929,000, which represents a reduction of 60.65% compared to the previous year [1] - The basic loss per share was HKD 0.13 [1] Group 2 - The decrease in revenue was primarily due to a decline in the turnover of the timber-related business, which fell from approximately HKD 170 million for the six months ending June 30, 2024, to about HKD 133 million during the reporting period [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongmu International (01822) reported a revenue of HKD 144 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 15.56% [1] - The company recorded a loss attributable to shareholders of HKD 929,000, which is a reduction of 60.65% compared to the previous year [1] - Basic loss per share was HKD 0.13 [1] Revenue Analysis - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to the timber-related business, which saw a drop in turnover from approximately HKD 170 million for the six months ending June 30, 2024, to about HKD 133 million during the reporting period [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The overall view is that most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Outlook**: Due to the repeated macro - expectations, it will experience wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the I2601 futures contract was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton with a 1.93% increase. The position increased by 17,754 hands. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores remained unchanged. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis (I2601 to Super Special) decreasing by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **News**: On August 27, the Shanghai Municipal People's Government Office issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages in the city [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Outlook**: Both are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength for both is 0, showing a neutral view [2][6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar (RB2510), the closing price was 3,129 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase. For hot - rolled coil (HC2510), the closing price was 3,385 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase. There were changes in trading volume, position, and spot prices in different regions [7]. - **News**: On August 28, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand. In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data also had corresponding changes [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Outlook**: Affected by market information disturbances, they will experience wide - range fluctuations within the day. The trend strength for both is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][10]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts changed slightly. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia remained stable, while the price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 30 yuan/ton. Various spreads also had corresponding changes [10]. - **News**: Multiple price quotes from the ferroalloy industry were released, and Ningbo Iron and Steel set a bid price for silicomanganese [11][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Outlook**: Both are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength for both is 0, showing a neutral view [2][14]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1,175 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton with a 1.8% increase. The closing price of the J2601 coke futures contract was 1,672.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton with a 0.2% increase. Spot prices of some varieties remained unchanged, and basis and spread values changed [14]. - **News**: On August 27, the Shanghai Municipal People's Government Office issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages in the city [14]. Logs - **Market Outlook**: It will fluctuate repeatedly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][16]. - **Fundamentals**: Different contract prices, trading volumes, and positions on the log futures market had various changes. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [17]. - **News**: On August 27, the Shanghai Municipal People's Government Office issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages in the city [19].

Report Overview - Date: August 27, 2025 [1][4][7][11][15][17][20] - Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market trends of various commodities are mainly characterized by wide - range oscillations or repeated fluctuations. Specifically, iron ore and logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly, while rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal are expected to have wide - range oscillations [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Oscillate repeatedly [2][6] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 776.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan or 1.33%. The previous day's position was 452,852 lots, down 11,978 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores mostly declined. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [5] - **News**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Market sentiment is changeable, with wide - range oscillations [2][8] - **Fundamentals**: For RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,113 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 0.99%. For HC2510, it was 3,367 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 0.71%. Trading volume and positions decreased. Spot prices generally declined, and basis and spread values changed [8] - **News**: In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises' production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel products increased compared to the previous period. Steel inventories increased. Other macro - related data were also reported [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Wide - range oscillations [2][11] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon increased, while those of silicomanganese were stable. Basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [11] - **News**: Iron alloy price information from different regions and steel mills' procurement prices were reported [12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Wide - range oscillations [2][15] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased. Trading volume and positions increased. Spot prices of some coking coals changed, and coke prices were stable. Basis and spread values changed significantly [15] - **News**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market" [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Logs - **Trend**: Oscillate repeatedly [2][17] - **Fundamentals**: Futures closing prices of different contracts showed slight changes, with varying trading volumes and positions. Spot prices of most log varieties were stable, and some basis and spread values changed [18] - **News**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market" [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The spot price of logs remained stable. In the short term, there is a weak balance between cost support and demand differentiation. In the medium to long term, it is necessary to pay attention to the expected supply contraction in New Zealand, the intensity of real - estate policies, and the implementation rhythm of infrastructure projects. The log futures market showed a volatile pattern this week, and it is recommended to wait and see in trading strategies [5][10] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - Log and wood - square spot prices: The prices of various types of logs and wood - squares in different ports were stable, with most showing 0.00% daily and weekly changes. Only the white pine wood - square in Rizhao had a 2.86% daily and weekly increase [3] - Futures data: For log futures contracts, prices, trading volumes, and open interests showed different changes. For example, the closing price of LG2509 decreased by 2.0, the trading volume decreased by 4070, and the open interest decreased by 2361 [3] Part 2: Market Judgment - Spot price: Log spot prices remained stable. From August 18th - 24th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 7 provinces and 13 ports in China increased by 1.90% compared to the previous week. From August 25th - 31st, 13 New Zealand log ships were expected to arrive at 12 ports in China, a 63% increase compared to the previous week. The ocean freight for imported coniferous log bulk carriers from New Zealand to China decreased by 16.67% year - on - year [5][8] - Futures price: The November contract fluctuated upwards, with a closing price of 823 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 3 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day [9] - Logic analysis: In the short term, there is a weak balance between cost support and demand differentiation. In the medium to long term, it is necessary to pay attention to the expected supply contraction in New Zealand, the intensity of real - estate policies, and the implementation rhythm of infrastructure projects [10] - Strategies: For unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11][12] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures related to log prices, including the prices of different types of logs and wood - squares in different ports, import log CFR prices, New Zealand log shipments to China, port log inventory structures, and other data [15][16][20]