Core Viewpoint - Shanxi province is undergoing a significant energy transition, moving from a coal-dominated economy to a diversified industrial structure that emphasizes innovation and sustainability [1][10]. Energy Transition - Shanxi is breaking its reliance on coal by promoting intelligent and green mining practices, enhancing the efficiency of coal production, and increasing the "green content" of its industrial development [2][4]. - As of August this year, Shanxi has established 298 intelligent coal mines and 55 green mining pilot coal mines [2]. Coal Chemical Industry - The province is advancing its coal chemical industry towards high-end, diversified, low-carbon, and specialized development, transforming coal from a primary fuel into high-value products [2][3]. - Projects like the production of nylon and high-purity hydrogen from coal by local companies illustrate the shift from coal as a fuel to coal as a raw material for high-value chemical products [3]. Technological Innovation - Shanxi is focusing on technological innovation to drive industrial transformation, establishing a robust system for the conversion of coal-based scientific achievements into practical applications [3][4]. - The province has invested approximately 5 billion yuan in research and development over the past five years, creating over 80 provincial-level energy technology innovation platforms [4]. Intelligent Manufacturing - Intelligent manufacturing is becoming a core engine for Shanxi's industrial advancement, with significant investments in smart factories and digital transformation initiatives [5][6]. - The province has cultivated a matrix of intelligent factories, including 182 basic-level, 76 advanced-level, and 5 excellent-level smart factories, enhancing production efficiency and product quality [6]. Smart Agriculture - Shanxi is promoting organic dry farming as a strategic initiative to modernize agriculture, achieving record yields in corn production through innovative agricultural practices [7][9]. - The province has established several high-level innovation platforms to support agricultural technology development, focusing on key crops and livestock breeding [9]. Future Outlook - The province aims to continue leveraging innovation and transformation to navigate the energy revolution and achieve industrial upgrades, setting new goals for sustainable development [10].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 11 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周四尿素现货市场普遍走高，主流地区现货价格多数有10~20元/吨的上调，山东、 %以上，但区域间差异有所加大，低成交地区产销率仅有20%~50%。本周企业库存继 | 坚挺 震荡 | | | 河南地区市场价格均为1650元/吨，日环比上涨20元/吨。基本面来看，目前气头企 | | | | 业尚未大规模降负荷，尿素供应水平继续高位波动，昨日行业日产量20.34万吨，日 | | | | 环比维持稳定。需求端跟进情绪局部继续好转，现货产销率部分地区昨日仍维持100 | | | | 续下降5.1%，上游企业及贸易商涨价心态浓厚，但当前产业心态偏谨慎，价格上涨 | | | | 后局部区域采购氛围有所转弱，因此后续现货高成交持续情况仍需关注。整体来看 | | | | ，短期尿素市场情绪延续偏强状态，期货价格短期也将继续偏强运行，关注需求持 | | | | 续情况、气头企业负荷变化、印标及国际市场扰动、商品市场整体情绪。 | | | | 周四 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical point of style rebalancing by the end of 2025, with the ongoing "anti-involution" policy reshaping investment logic in cyclical industries [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since Q3 2025, the A-share market has shown a significant "technology + cyclical" dual-driven pattern, indicating a transition from a single growth line to a balanced allocation of "growth + value" [1] - The technology sector has experienced a substantial cumulative increase, with the electronics industry rising by 45% and the communication equipment sector by over 38%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index's 14.7% [4] - The concentration of institutional holdings in the technology sector has reached nearly historical peaks, with TMT sector holdings exceeding 40.16%, indicating a risk of overcrowding [4] Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed three major measures for the chemical industry in 2026, signaling a shift from mere advocacy to substantial implementation of the "anti-involution" policy [4] - The "anti-involution" policy has extended to industry self-discipline, with products like long silk, PTA, and urea achieving industry collaboration through "production limits to maintain prices + price alliances + punitive agreements" [10] Group 3: Chemical Industry Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a supply-side improvement driven by "downward capacity cycles + policy-guided elimination," with fixed asset investments in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector decreasing by 5.6% year-on-year from January to September 2025 [5][6] - The demand side is supported by both domestic recovery and overseas improvement, with textile and apparel exports increasing by 8.7% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the chemical industry under the "anti-involution" wave include selecting leading companies with strong management systems and cost advantages [14] - Specific sectors to focus on include: 1. Petrochemicals: Expected to see a turning point due to supply contraction and demand upgrades [15] 2. Coal chemicals: Benefiting from policy catalysts and cost advantages, with potential for profit recovery [16] 3. Polyester filament and PTA: Leading sectors in the implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, currently entering an inventory digestion phase [17]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical point of style rebalancing by the end of 2025, with the ongoing "anti-involution" policy reshaping the investment logic in cyclical industries [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since Q3 2025, the A-share market has shown a significant "technology + cyclical" dual-driven pattern, indicating a transition from a single growth line to a balanced allocation of "growth + value" [4] - The performance improvement in cyclical sectors is sustainable, with a 23% year-on-year increase in the exit scale of backward production capacity in industries like chemicals and non-ferrous metals as of Q3 2025 [4] Group 2: Drivers of Market Style Shift - Three main supports for the current market style switch include: 1. The technology sector's significant cumulative increase, with the electronics industry up 45% and communication equipment over 38% year-to-date as of November 2025, far exceeding the 14.7% rise of the CSI 300 index [6] 2. Institutional holdings in the technology sector nearing historical peaks, with TMT sector holdings surpassing 40.16% [6] 3. Clear policy signals from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology regarding the chemical industry, enhancing the certainty of supply-side contraction in cyclical industries [6] Group 3: Chemical Industry Insights - The core logic for supply-side improvement in the chemical industry is driven by "downward capacity cycles + policy-guided exit," with fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials sector decreasing by 5.6% year-on-year from January to September 2025 [8][11] - The chemical industry has significant advantages over traditional cyclical industries in capacity optimization efficiency, industry collaboration, and high-end transformation paths [12] Group 4: Demand Recovery - The recovery in demand for the chemical industry is supported by both domestic and overseas factors, with domestic engines including improved real estate conditions and a resurgence in textile exports [13][14] - China's chemical product sales have maintained the top global position, with sales amounting to approximately €2.24 trillion in 2023, accounting for 43.1% of global sales [16][17] Group 5: Investment Opportunities in the Chemical Sector - Investment opportunities in the chemical industry under the anti-involution wave include: 1. Selecting leading companies with strong management and cost control [20] 2. Focusing on three reversal areas: petrochemicals, coal chemicals, and polyester filament + PTA, with specific companies highlighted for their potential [21][22][23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Wide - amplitude oscillation [1] - Soda Ash: Wide - amplitude oscillation [1] - Glass: Continuous rebound [1] Core Views - **Urea**: On Wednesday, the urea futures price fluctuated strongly. The spot market in some areas declined slightly, with supply at a high level and demand improving. Enterprise inventories continued to fall, strengthening the price - holding mentality. The international market has uncertain factors. The futures market is expected to continue a strong - oscillation trend [1]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the soda ash futures price was firm and oscillated. The spot market quotation was stable, with supply stable and demand improving. Enterprise inventories continued to fall, strengthening the price - holding mentality. The futures price will continue a low - level wide - amplitude fluctuation trend [1]. - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the glass futures price fluctuated strongly. The spot market stopped falling, with supply stable and demand improving. Inventories decreased, and the futures market may continue to rebound in the short term, but a market reversal requires more positive factors [1]. Market Information Urea - On November 26, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 7,390, an increase of 88 from the previous trading day, with 820 valid forecasts [4]. - On November 26, the daily output of the urea industry was 203,400 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from the previous working day, and an increase of 11,700 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.10%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from 84.82% in the same period last year [4]. - On November 26, the small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Jiangsu were 1,630 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1,630 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), 1,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1,630 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 1,620 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton) respectively [4]. - As of the week of November 26, the urea enterprise inventory was 1.3639 million tons, a decrease of 73,300 tons (- 5.10%) from the previous week [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On November 26, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 4,710, an increase of 1,058 from the previous trading day, with 1,401 valid forecasts; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [7]. - On November 26, the soda ash spot prices in different regions varied. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton and the heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton [7]. - On November 26, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 82.26%, the same as the previous working day [8]. - On November 26, the average price of the float glass market was 1,091 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the industry's daily output was 157,200 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8]. Chart Analysis - The report includes charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume, and open interest of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, and the futures price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [10][11][16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Lu'an Chemical Group is transforming from a traditional energy company to a modern energy and chemical enterprise, focusing on brand development and technological innovation to enhance its market competitiveness and international presence [1][20]. Group 1: Brand Development and Market Positioning - Lu'an Chemical Group has successfully produced the world's first coal-based synthetic III+ base oil and established the first 5G+ pilot demonstration coal mine in China [1]. - The company emphasizes brand strength as a foundation for high-quality development, implementing a brand strategy that focuses on value creation and market expansion [1][8]. - The "Lu'an Blasting Coal" has become synonymous with quality and efficiency in the steel industry, leading to the establishment of national standards for blast furnace coal [3][6]. Group 2: Technological Innovation and Product Quality - The core competitiveness of Lu'an Blasting Coal lies in its stable quality, high calorific value, low sulfur content, and good grindability, supported by a comprehensive quality management system [5][6]. - The company has received multiple awards for its products, including recognition as a "National Quality Trusted Product," and has expanded its market reach internationally [6][12]. - Lu'an Chemical Group has developed advanced technologies, such as the "Jinhua Furnace," which achieved two global firsts in industrial applications [7][20]. Group 3: Contribution to Agriculture and Rural Development - During the spring farming season, Lu'an Chemical Group's fertilizer production has significantly increased, with a 40-day shipment volume exceeding 45,000 tons, marking a substantial year-on-year growth [12][13]. - The "Tianji" fertilizer brand has also seen a notable increase in sales, contributing to local agricultural development and rural revitalization efforts [13][14]. Group 4: Commitment to Social Responsibility - Lu'an Chemical Group has been recognized for its social responsibility initiatives, receiving awards for its contributions to the coal industry and community development [25][26]. - The company actively engages in local community support, enhancing agricultural productivity and farmer incomes through innovative practices [14][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Goals - Looking ahead, Lu'an Chemical Group aims to strengthen its innovation capabilities and enhance brand value through technological advancements and market responsiveness [20][27]. - The company is committed to aligning with national goals for building world-class enterprises, focusing on high-quality development and sustainable practices [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The press conference highlighted the achievements and progress made in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period in Shaanxi Province, focusing on regional development and new urbanization strategies, emphasizing the importance of coordinated development and urban-rural integration [5][6][42]. Group 1: Regional Development Mechanisms - The establishment of the Provincial Regional Coordination Development Leadership Group has improved the coordination of national regional strategies and urban-rural integration [6][43]. - A series of policy documents have been issued to support the construction of a unified national market and promote cross-regional resource flow [6][43]. Group 2: Regional Linkage - The integration of the Guanzhong innovation elements with the energy and ecological resources of Northern and Southern Shaanxi has been accelerated, with significant projects like the Xi'an headquarters and Xianyang base being developed [7][44]. - The Xi'an metropolitan area has reached a permanent population of 18.75 million and an economic total of 1.67 trillion yuan [7][44]. Group 3: Industrial System Development - The Guanzhong region has focused on technological innovation, with strategic emerging industries accounting for 80% of the province's total [8][45]. - The energy revolution in Northern Shaanxi has led to an average annual GDP growth rate of 7.3% since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8][45]. Group 4: Connectivity Improvements - Major cross-regional water conservancy projects have been accelerated, and significant transportation infrastructure has been developed, including the completion of the T5 terminal at Xi'an Xianyang International Airport [9][46]. - The road mileage in Guanzhong, Northern Shaanxi, and Southern Shaanxi has increased significantly compared to 2020, enhancing transportation connectivity [9][46]. Group 5: Environmental Improvements - The ecological environment in the Qinba Mountains has been effectively protected, with a significant area classified as having excellent ecological quality [10][47]. - The province's renewable energy capacity has reached 63.18 million kilowatts, 2.6 times that of the end of 2020 [10][47]. Group 6: Urban-Rural Integration - The county economy is being developed as a strategic measure to reduce urban-rural and regional disparities, with the total county economy expected to reach 1.68 trillion yuan by 2024 [11][48]. - The urbanization rate in the province is projected to increase significantly, reflecting the ongoing efforts in urban-rural integration [11][48].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Styrene: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Plastic: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PVC: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PX: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PTA: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Glass: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical futures market shows a complex trend. Some products are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external market conditions, presenting different price trends such as consolidation, upward or downward movement [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different medium - and short - term outlooks. Some products are expected to be strong in the medium term, while others have limited medium - term rebound space or are in a state of range - bound consolidation [3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures are weakly consolidating around the 5 - day moving average. Tight supply in Shandong has pushed up prices, but downstream cost pressure may limit the upside [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures are in a bearish pattern. Stable domestic supply and weakening demand have led to poor market trading [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are volatile. Although there are factors such as potential supply improvement and rising prices, high arrival expectations and weakening demand may lead to range - bound consolidation [3] - Styrene futures are consolidating at a low level. Improved supply - demand structure and repaired profits may keep the short - term state, with limited upward momentum [3] Polyester - PX is expected to be weak in the short term but strong in the medium term due to factors such as weakened demand and potential supply decline from maintenance [5] - PTA is driven by cost, with expectations of improved processing margins. Ethylene glycol has short - term price rebounds but limited medium - term upside [5] - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle chip is mainly cost - driven with long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol's near - month contract is strong, and there are expectations of port destocking. It may be appropriate to go long unilaterally or do positive spreads on the month - to - month difference [6] - Urea prices may return to a stalemate. Although there is demand release, the oversupply situation is expected to continue [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC is in a volatile trend. With potential improvement in exports and cost support, it may follow cost changes [7] - Caustic soda is also volatile. High production and weak demand lead to a weak market, and attention should be paid to profit changes [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in a volatile trend. Although there is destocking, the long - term supply may exceed demand. Attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [8] - Glass prices are expected to be volatile and strong, with potential production line cold repairs and cost support [8]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a total operating revenue of RMB 194,100.37 million in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.63% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 15,345.82 million, with a year-on-year increase of 5.14% [2] Group 2: Engineering Business Orders - New signed orders for engineering consulting and general contracting amounted to approximately RMB 101,959.64 million from January to September 2025 [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the total amount of signed but uncompleted orders in the engineering business was RMB 164,104.14 million, indicating a robust order backlog [3] Group 3: Coal Chemical Projects - The company has undertaken several representative projects in the coal chemical sector, including sulfur recovery design and technical services for major clients such as Shenhua Yulin and Ningxia Baofeng [4][5][6] - New projects since 2025 include the procurement of complete sets of low-methane refrigeration compressors for a coal-to-natural gas project and sulfur recovery technology services for various coal chemical projects [5][6] Group 4: Chemical Production Capacity - The company is a leading domestic producer of various chemical products, with annual production capacities of 170,000 tons for aldehydes, 260,000 tons for alcohols, 30,000 tons for acids, and 100,000 tons for esters [7] - The products are widely used across multiple industries, including pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and coatings, showcasing the company's diverse application range [7] Group 5: Shareholder Returns - Since its listing in 2010, the company has distributed a cumulative cash dividend of RMB 129,076.35 million (including tax), reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [9] - The company aims to enhance investment value through strategic measures that align with its operational status and market performance [9] Group 6: Future Expansion Plans - The company currently has ample cash reserves and a low debt ratio, which supports its business development needs [10] - Plans for future expansion include optimizing production efficiency and exploring opportunities for external growth while maintaining cautious decision-making [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices showed a weak oscillation on Tuesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,630 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.43%. Spot prices mostly dropped by 10 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level with a daily output of 201,100 tons, a daily decrease of 400 tons. Demand is not actively following up, with spot sales rates in the range of 5% - 50% in most areas. The market is expected to continue a low - level wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to demand, spot transactions, gas - head enterprise starts, exports, and Indian tender dynamics [2]. - Soda ash futures prices had a wide - range oscillation on Tuesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,173 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.26%. Spot prices were mostly stable, with light ash prices in some areas up by 20 yuan/ton. Supply remained stable, with an operating rate of 82.26%. Demand follow - up slowed down, and the market maintained a low - level wide - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to start - up and production capacity dynamics, downstream production line changes, macro - policies, and overall market sentiment [2]. - Glass futures prices showed a firm oscillation on Tuesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,014 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.1%. Spot prices continued to decline. With more cold repairs in the glass industry, supply decreased, and demand remained positive, with sales rates in most areas above 100%. The short - term performance is firm, but the weak demand still restricts the upward movement. Attention should be paid to supply changes, spot transactions, macro - policies, and overall market trends [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information Urea - On November 25, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 7,302, a decrease of 268 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 895 [5]. - On November 25, the daily output of the urea industry was 201,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous workday and an increase of 11,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.17%, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points compared to 84.11% in the same period last year [5]. - On November 25, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions: Shandong was 1,630 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Henan was 1,640 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Hebei was 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; Anhui was 1,630 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Jiangsu was 1,630 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shanxi was 1,500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On November 25, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3,652, an increase of 1,134 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 2,385. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [7]. - On November 25, the spot prices of soda ash: In North China, light ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in Central China, light ash was 1,150 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 1,250 yuan/ton; in East China, light ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan, and heavy ash was 1,250 yuan/ton; in South China, light ash was 1,350 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 1,400 yuan/ton; in Southwest China, light ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, light ash was 930 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 930 yuan/ton [7]. - On November 25, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 82.26%, the same as the previous workday [8]. - On November 25, the average price of the float glass market was 1,091 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The daily output of the industry was 157,200 tons, a daily decrease of 900 tons [8]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and the price spreads between different varieties. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [10][13][20][21]. Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, focuses on sugar industry research and has won multiple awards [24]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won many honors [24]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [24].