光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 1 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周四尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力05合约收盘价1801元/吨，涨幅0.28%。现货市场 | 继续走强，昨日山东、河南地区市场价格均上涨至1760元/吨，日环比分别上涨20 | | | | | | | | 元/吨、10元/吨。尿素供应略有回升，昨日行业日产量20.28万吨，日环比增0.3万 | 吨，未来在气头企业复产预期下供应仍有提升预期，关注提升节奏。需求情绪略有 | | | | | | | | 回落，昨日主流地区产销率降至20% | 70%区间。本周尿素企业库存下降3.53%，支 | 尿素 | 撑厂家涨价心态。后续需求仍有冬储肥支撑，叠加工业下游及淡储需求跟进、部分 | 偏强 | 震荡 | | | | 地区春耕备肥前置需求释放，但价格高位也将 | 制市场采购情绪。印标量价结果本 | 周 | 将最终确定，对国内情绪仍有扰动。尿素期货盘面向上突破1800元/吨之后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The listing of coking coal options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange enhances risk management tools for the coal, coke, and steel industry [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - Coking coal is a core raw material for the steel and coal chemical industries, with China being a significant producer and consumer globally. In 2024, China's main coking coal production is projected to be 165 million tons, accounting for 53% of global production, while consumption is expected to reach 206 million tons, representing 63% of global consumption [1]. Group 2: Risk Management Tools - The Dalian Commodity Exchange launched coking coal futures in 2013 to help the industry manage price volatility. Since then, the futures market has operated smoothly, with expanding scale and effective functionality, leading to increased price influence and more enterprises utilizing futures for hedging [1]. - The recent listing of coking coal options is expected to complement existing futures and options for coking coal, coke, and iron ore, providing a more comprehensive risk management toolset for the industry [1]. Group 3: Industry Demand - Due to significant price fluctuations influenced by supply, demand, and policy factors, there is a growing demand among industry enterprises for refined risk management through derivative tools [1].

摘要 广汇能源预计 2025 年煤炭产量达 6,300 万吨，外销量 5,300 万吨，净 增约 1,000 万吨，持续推进"十五"期间产量过亿吨目标，东部矿区获 批优先开发，预计 2027 年逐步释放产能。 公司 2025 年石油勘探增储超预期，计划持续投入资金扩编、增储和开 发西油资源，目标年产 300 万吨，并通过自有管道运输稀有原油回国内。 天然气业务依托自产气、外购气及 LNG 接收站保持盈利，2025 年国际 贸易资源周转量达 150 万吨，国际贸易和 LNG 接收站合计贡献净利润 约 4.5 亿元。 煤化工业务主要产品包括甲醇、煤焦油、提质煤及乙二醇，乙二醇装置 技改后日产 1,100 吨并扭亏为盈，公司完成 39.76 亿元现金分红，优化 股东结构。 公司未来战略包括做强煤油气主业，通过精细化管理提升效益，如技改 清洁炼化项目提升产能超 40%，并以创新促转型，探索传统能源与新能 源耦合。 Q&A 请介绍一下广汇能源在 2025 年的主要业务发展情况及取得的成就。 2025 年，广汇能源在各项主营业务上取得了显著突破，煤油气化一体化产业 发展的根基更加牢固。具体来说： 公司计划提高疆内地销煤炭 ...

会上提出，山西将加快新材料创新应用，以高端化、集群化为方向，突破关键材料技术，拓展下游应 用，打造国内重要的新材料产业集群。积极布局未来产业，重点推动氢能、量子、生物制造等未来产业 发展。 中化新网讯 1月12日，山西省工业和信息化工作会议在太原召开。会议提出，山西将优化发展路径，推 动煤炭资源高值化、材料化发展，延伸现代煤化工产业链，拓展氢能与绿色燃料应用场景，打造国家重 要能源原材料基地。 为保障基地建设，山西省上下联动深化改革攻坚，将建立重大任务推进机制，强化链群融合发展，聚焦 先进材料、高端装备、现代煤化工等13个集群，细分培育30条左右产业链，优选布局N个产业集聚区， 形成"集群带动、链式整合、区域集聚"产业链群融合生态。 据悉，"十四五"以来，山西化工产业规模进一步扩大，自主创新能力不断增强，技术装备水平明显提 高，形成了以传统煤化工产业为基础、现代煤化工产业为培育重点、盐化工和精细化工为补充的产业体 系。 山西现代煤化工产业规模的持续扩大，为国家重要能源原材料基地的建设提供了发展路径选择和坚实的 物质基础保障。据悉，山西现已形成700万吨/年合成氨、900万吨/年尿素、813万吨/年甲醇、176 ...

焦煤期货自2013年上市以来，市场运行平稳、流动性良好，已成为产业链企业套期保值的重要工具。 2025年，焦煤期货日均成交量为106万手，日均持仓量为68万手，期现价格相关性高达97%。如今，焦 煤期权的推出恰逢其时，与已有13年运行经验的焦煤期货形成互补，构建起"期货+期权"的立体化风险 管理体系。 此前，大商所曾发布通知，规定焦煤期权首批挂牌合约是以JM2604至JM2612共9个月份期货合约为标 的的期权合约。焦煤期权上市首日集合竞价时间为8:55至8:59，9:00正式开盘，并于当晚同步开展夜盘 交易。焦煤期权交易手续费为0.5元/手，行权（履约）手续费收取标准与交易手续费相同，套保交易手 续费减半收取；持仓限额为8000手，并实行做市商制度以提升市场流动性。行权方面，在每个交易日的 交易时间以及到期日的15:00—15:30，客户可以提交"行权""双向期权持仓对冲平仓""行权后双向期货持 仓对冲平仓"和"履约后双向期货持仓对冲平仓"申请。在到期日的交易时间以及到期日的15:00—15:30， 客户还可以提交"放弃"申请。 1月16日，焦煤期权在大商所正式挂牌上市。作为大商所今年上市的首个衍生工具，焦 ...

Group 1 - The company, Baotailong (601011), stated that its capital chain is operating normally and its operational status is stable [1] - The company holds reservations regarding the second-instance judgment in the lawsuit involving Shuangyashan Longmei Tiantai Coal Chemical Co., Ltd. [1] - A professional legal team has been organized by the company to conduct in-depth analysis and assessment of the judgment [1] - The company will decide whether to apply for retrial based on the research conducted [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea: The urea futures price oscillated upward on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,814 yuan/ton, a gain of 2.02%. The spot market continued to strengthen. Supply is expected to increase with the resumption of gas - based enterprises, but the pace needs attention. Demand has improved significantly, with the sales - to - production ratio reaching 120% - 310% in the mainstream areas. The market is expected to be in a high - level and strong oscillation, but the room for further increase is limited [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures price fluctuated widely on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,222 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.16%. The spot prices were stable. The industry's operating rate increased slightly. The supply - demand pressure remains high, and the futures price will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [1]. - Glass: The glass futures price fluctuated weakly on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,096 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.06%. The spot price was stable. Supply may change before the Spring Festival, and demand follow - up has weakened. The futures price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation trend [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information Urea - On January 14, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 13,355, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 100 valid forecasts. The daily output of the urea industry was 199,800 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and 135,000 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.86%, 1.68 percentage points higher than the same period last year [4]. - On January 14, the inventory of urea enterprises was 986,100 tons, a weekly decrease of 36,100 tons or 3.53% [5]. - On January 14, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions: Shandong was 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan was 1,750 yuan/ton (+10), Hebei was 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), Anhui was 1,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu was 1,760 yuan/ton (+10), and Shanxi was 1,630 yuan/ton (+10) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On January 14, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 3,813, a decrease of 1,400 from the previous trading day, with 1,341 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,058, unchanged from the previous trading day [7]. - On January 14, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions varied. For example, in North China, light soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton and heavy soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton [7]. - On January 14, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 87.21%, up from 86.82% the previous working day. The average price of the float glass market was 1,097 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output was 150,600 tons per day, also unchanged [8]. Chart Analysis The report includes multiple charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume, and position of the main contracts of urea, soda ash, and glass, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and varieties. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [10][12][19][20]. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry research and has won many awards [24]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won many honors [24]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and has also won relevant awards [24].

1月15日，宝丰能源盘中上涨2.03%，截至10:38，报21.16元/股，成交6.33亿元，换手率0.41%，总市值 1551.74亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1596.15万元，特大单买入4379.34万元，占比6.92%，卖出4902.94万 元，占比7.74%；大单买入1.74亿元，占比27.56%，卖出1.85亿元，占比29.25%。 截至9月30日，宝丰能源股东户数6.54万，较上期增加3.70%；人均流通股112206股，较上期减少 3.57%。2025年1月-9月，宝丰能源实现营业收入355.45亿元，同比增长46.43%；归母净利润89.50亿元， 同比增长97.27%。 分红方面，宝丰能源A股上市后累计派现173.48亿元。近三年，累计派现81.21亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，宝丰能源十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股1.77亿股，相比上期减少2562.41万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第八大流通 股东，持股3728.15万股，相比上期减少193.12万股。化工ETF（159870）位居第十大流通股东，持股 329 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish Rebound [1] - LPG: Bearish Rebound [1] - L: Bearish Rebound [1] - PP: Bearish Rebound [1] - PVC: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Bullish Direction [2] - Urea: Bullish - biased Consolidation [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously Bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish Rebound [6] - Glass: Bearish Continuation [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish Continuation [6] 2. Report's Core Views - The geopolitical risks in the energy and chemical industries have been priced in, and the subsequent geopolitical trends in the Middle East and South America should be closely monitored. The overall supply in the industry is relatively abundant, and the demand is affected by seasonal factors and geopolitical situations. Some products are in a bearish rebound or consolidation state, while others are facing downward pressure in the medium - to long - term [1][2][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight, oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.19%, Brent up 1.60%, and SC up 2.34% [8][9]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, Middle East geopolitical tensions and Trump's tariff threat led to a rebound in oil prices. In the long - term, due to oversupply during the off - season and the expansion of OPEC + production, oil prices are under downward pressure [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East led to a short - term rebound in oil prices. Iran's current floating crude oil inventory is about 170 million barrels. India's fuel consumption in December reached a record high. As of January 2, US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline, distillate, and strategic crude oil reserve increased [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to long - term, OPEC +'s production increase will push oil prices into a low - price range. Pay attention to the production changes in non - OPEC + regions. In the short - term, there is a rebound, but in the long - term, it is under pressure. Focus on the SC range of [445 - 460] [12]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 14, the PG main contract closed at 4308 yuan/ton, up 1.22% month - on - month [14]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it rebounds with oil prices, and in the long - term, oil prices are under pressure. The refinery's production decreased, but the downstream chemical demand has resilience, and the inventory decreased [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: From a supply - demand perspective, the oversupply of upstream crude oil will lead to a downward shift in the price center. In the short - term, there is uncertainty in oil prices, and in the long - term, it is bearish. Focus on the PG range of [4200 - 4300] [16]. L - **Market Performance**: The L05 contract had a certain increase, and the basis was repaired to the flat - water state [18]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost support improved, and the basis was repaired. The proportion of Iranian imports increased, and the planned device maintenance increased, with expected production decline. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased, and the market is expected to continue to repair profits [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the L range of [6800 - 6950] [20]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 contract rose slightly [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances and the rush to export of acrylonitrile downstream led to the strengthening of acrylonitrile. The supply - demand is weak, and the demand enters the off - season in January. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to PDH device dynamics and focus on the PP range of [6550 - 6750] [24]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract showed a slight decline [25]. - **Basic Logic**: The cancellation of export tax rebates led to a short - term expectation of a rush to export. The domestic start - up rate increased, and the supply - demand is in a weak state. The cost support is strengthening, increasing the expectation of future maintenance [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the V range of [4800 - 5000] [27]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 5108 yuan/ton, and the processing fee improved [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low, the supply - side device changes are small, and the overall planned maintenance volume is high. The downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. The cost - side PX is in a weak balance. There is a slight accumulation of inventory from January to February, but the outlook is positive from the perspective of production and demand [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on the TA05 range of [5100 - 5200] [30]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract decreased slightly [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is low. The domestic device load has increased, and the downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. The port inventory is increasing, with inventory accumulation pressure in January. It lacks upward driving forces and follows cost fluctuations in the short - term [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop losses on short positions and pay attention to opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the EG05 range of [3830 - 3899] [33]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract increased with reduced positions [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic and overseas methanol device loads have increased. The supply - side pressure still exists, and the demand has slightly improved. The cost support is weak and stable. The supply - demand is slightly loose, but the downward space is limited [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on the MA05 range of [2270 - 2310] [38]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR05 contract showed a certain increase [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall start - up load has increased, and the demand is weak. The winter storage is progressing steadily, but the positive impact is limited. The domestic supply - demand is loose, and there is a spring fertilizer - using trading expectation [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, but the rebound height is restricted by the increasing supply - side pressure. Focus on the UR05 range of [1780 - 1830] [42]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 14, the NG main contract closed at 3.419 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.29% month - on - month [45]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand support has decreased recently. The inventory in the US has decreased. In the winter, the demand has support, but the supply pressure leads to downward - pressured prices [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the NG range of [2.725 - 3.370] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose, and the valuation is gradually returning to normal [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - side oil price rebounded, and the geopolitical situation in South America and the Middle East should be monitored. The supply - demand is generally loose, and the demand has entered the off - season [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, and the supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to geopolitical risks. Focus on the BU range of [3150 - 3250] [50]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract showed a weak shock [52]. - **Basic Logic**: The inventory of traders in Shahe is at a record high, and the supply - demand is weak. The daily melting volume has increased slightly, and the profit of three processes has turned negative. The weak demand in the real estate market restricts the upward space [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the FG range of [1070 - 1120] [54]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract showed a weak shock [56]. - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory has increased counter - seasonally. The demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - to long - term. The real estate demand is weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the SA range of [1180 - 1230] [58].

山西晚报·山河+讯（记者 张磊）在期货市场不断成熟的基础上，焦煤期权将于1月16日正式在大连商 品交易所上市。相对期货而言，期权类似于一份保险，具有占用资金少、最大损失可控、策略灵活等优 势。对于我省煤焦钢产业链企业而言，这意味着风险管理体系将进入新的发展阶段。 业内人士表示，从更宏观的视角看，焦煤期权的推出意义已超越单个企业的风险管理。对于企业而言， 这是提升风控精细化水平、推动治理能力现代化的重要机遇；对行业而言，期货与期权协同发展，有助 于稳定全产业链经营预期、引导资源优化配置，并为煤炭行业绿色转型与高质量发展提供支撑。 期权具有资金占用成本低、最大损失可控（仅权利金）、策略运用灵活等优势，可作为期货工具的补 充。期货与期权的协同发展，将为煤焦钢产业链提供更加完善的风险管理方案。焦煤期权的上市，将进 一步丰富煤焦钢产业链的风险管理工具箱。期货与期权各具特点，又可相互补充，两者协同运用将为企 业提供更加完善的风险管理方案。 吕梁市一家能源企业营销部工作人员表示，焦煤价格处于估值底部区域时，可通过卖出看跌期权建立虚 拟库存。该策略无需提前占用大量采购资金，既能通过收取的权利金增厚收益，又能锁定低价采购的机 ...