通过港口、运价、经济景气度、韩国出口等高频追踪出口景气度。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 特朗普的"对等关税"和随之而来的"90天暂缓"让二季度的中国外贸形势变得复杂，我们梳理了一些可 以有效跟踪美国进口和中国出口节奏的 高频指标。 第一类：中美港口数据 一是美国主要港口的进口集装箱吞吐量。 易得的美国港口数据包括洛杉矶港进口集装箱吞吐量（周度）、洛杉矶港、长滩港、纽约新泽西港的集 装箱月度吞吐量数据。 截至4月19日，洛杉矶港口进口集装箱吞吐量同比增长8.6%，依旧处于相对高位。另外，部分机构也 会发布航运相关数据，如全美零售联合会预估美国7月集装箱进口量将减少27%，8月减少28%。 二是中国的港口货物和集装箱吞吐量 。 中国交通运输部每周公布港口完成货物和集装箱吞吐量数据。从历史数据看， 货物吞吐量同比增速与 中国进出口同比增速之间的相关性比较高 。 截至4月20日，4月中国港口完成货物、集装箱吞吐量同比分别增长4.4%、7.5%，3月为4.2%、 8.9%，港口货运依旧维持韧性，并未失速。 第二类：集装箱运价数据 一是中国公布的出口集装箱运价指数（ CCFI ）以及主要航线的集装箱运价指数，在一定 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 611 million RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 1.31% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 38.57%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 22 million RMB, down 56.99% year-over-year and 81.92% quarter-over-quarter. The company signed new orders worth 444 million RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 17.27% [1][2] - Despite short-term challenges in the tank container industry due to macroeconomic uncertainties, the company is expected to leverage its scale and brand advantages to enhance cost control and increase market share [1][4] - The company's gross margin in Q1 2025 was 14.56%, a decrease of 2.76 percentage points year-over-year and 1.84 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to short-term demand pressure in the downstream chemical industry and intensified competition [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the tank container business generated revenue of 481 million RMB, down 2.57% year-over-year, while the medical equipment components business saw revenue growth of 20.98% to 54 million RMB. The aftermarket business revenue was 36 million RMB, a slight increase of 0.15% year-over-year [2] - The company plans to increase product innovation in tank containers and strengthen manufacturing cost control to further enhance market share [4] Profitability and Costs - The company's expense ratio in Q1 2025 was 8.09%, an increase of 4.73 percentage points year-over-year and 8.72 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The financial expense ratio was -1.00%, reflecting an increase of 5.11 percentage points year-over-year, mainly due to increased foreign exchange losses [3] Market Outlook - The long-term outlook for the tank container industry remains positive despite short-term challenges. The company, as a market leader with approximately 50% market share, is expected to benefit from the rapid development of multimodal transport and stricter environmental regulations [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 445 million RMB, 543 million RMB, and 609 million RMB, respectively. The target price is set at 19.94 RMB, based on a 2.4 times price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025 [5][9]

4月23日，中集车辆（301039）生态合作伙伴卡尔动力在上海国际车展举办未来运输机器人战略发布 会，推出全球首款全行业全场景通用的未来运输机器人KargoBot Space。该产品通过三大行业首发技 术，可实现单车运输毛利提升5倍，卡尔动力同步公布大宗货运及快递快运车型于2027年量产。2023 年，中集车辆通过深圳湾天使基金完成对新能源动力系统创新企业卡尔动力的天使轮投资。未来，中集 车辆与卡尔动力的合作将推动智慧物流从单一技术突破迈向生态化协同阶段。双方以KargoBot Space通 用平台为核心，拓展自动驾驶应用场景，构建全产业链体系。(人民财讯) ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China due to the U.S. government's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs," which are deemed excessive and unilateral, undermining international trade order [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact on Global Trade - The U.S. frequent changes in tariff measures have left many foreign trade enterprises in confusion, significantly suppressing foreign trade transactions and leading to a notable downward effect on global trade scale [2][17]. - The "tariff stick" wielded by the U.S. has become a major source of uncertainty in the global foreign trade market, overshadowing the growth prospects of global trade [2][17]. - The current market panic, exacerbated by U.S. tariff measures and protectionist actions, has led to a rise in the U.S. market panic index to levels seen in spring 2020, negatively impacting consumer confidence and market demand [2][17]. Group 2: Nature of Tariffs - The tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China are no longer reciprocal in nature, with rates exceeding 50% and in some cases over 100%, categorizing them as "extortionate tariffs" that severely hinder normal trade operations [4][6]. - The high tariff levels have rendered international trade nearly impossible for Chinese foreign trade enterprises, which operate in a highly competitive environment with limited profit margins [4][6]. Group 3: China's Response Strategy - China has adopted a "combination punch" strategy involving "increased tariffs + demand restrictions + policy coordination" to counter U.S. measures, achieving some effectiveness [7][16]. - Demand-side restrictions have been implemented, such as reducing the import quota for U.S. films and issuing travel warnings for studying and tourism in the U.S., targeting the service trade sector where the U.S. has a significant surplus [7][16]. - A policy matrix focusing on "list control + qualification review + market access restrictions" has been established to ensure precision and sustainability in China's countermeasures against the U.S. [7][16]. Group 4: Affected Industries - The sectors most impacted by the tariffs include machinery and electronics, textiles and apparel, furniture and toys, metals and products, transportation equipment, personal computers, and chemicals, with significant export values reported for each category [5][6]. - The anticipated impact on U.S.-China trade is expected to be substantial, particularly in the second and third quarters of 2025, affecting production and trade chains, and potentially leading to negative consequences for employment and economic growth [6].

Market Overview - A-shares opened steadily with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.25%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 3% [1] - Hong Kong stocks performed well, with the Hang Seng Technology Index opening up over 3% [2] - FTSE China A50 Index futures rose by more than 4% [3] - Japanese and South Korean stock markets showed signs of rebound, with Japan's market performing relatively stronger [4][13] A-share Performance - The ChiNext Index opened with a strong performance, rising by 1.68% during the continuous bidding phase, while the Shanghai Composite Index turned positive [6] - Key sectors leading the gains included transportation equipment, semiconductors, securities, hotel and catering, oil, and coal [6] Sector Performance - Transportation Equipment: +1.88% [7] - Securities: +0.82% [7] - Hotel and Catering: +0.73% [7] - Notable concept stocks such as seed industry, weight loss drugs, and BC batteries also saw significant gains [8] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong market opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.66% and the Hang Seng Technology Index up 3.31% [9] - Major constituents of the Hang Seng Technology Index, including JD.com, Tencent Music, and NetEase, showed strong performance [10] Central Bank and Regulatory Actions - Central Huijin Investment expressed confidence in the current A-share allocation value, indicating plans to increase investment in various market styles and ETFs [11] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced adjustments to insurance fund equity asset regulations, raising the upper limit for equity asset allocation and encouraging investment in strategic emerging industries [12] International Market Context - Japanese stocks, particularly in electronics and chips, showed strong rebound, with the Nikkei 225 Index rising over 5% at one point [14][15] - South Korean market's rebound was weaker, with the KOSPI Index showing a maximum increase of over 2% [17] - In the international commodities market, gold prices fell below $3,000 per ounce, declining over 1% [18]

Core Viewpoint - The company has completed a share buyback and cancellation process, which is expected to enhance shareholder value and improve earnings per share without significantly impacting its operations or financial status [1][5][6]. Group 1: Share Buyback Plan and Implementation - The company approved a share buyback plan on February 29, 2024, with a total fund allocation between RMB 100 million and RMB 200 million, and a maximum buyback price of RMB 25.00 per share [1]. - The buyback was executed from March 26, 2024, to March 14, 2025, achieving the lower limit of the planned buyback fund without exceeding the upper limit [4]. - The total number of shares repurchased was 6,640,267, with 4,355,267 shares canceled, representing 2.53% of the total share capital before cancellation [1][5]. Group 2: Adjustments to Buyback Terms - On April 29, 2024, the company announced an adjustment to the maximum buyback price from RMB 24.75 to RMB 35.00 per share, effective from December 26, 2024 [2]. - The funding source for the buyback was changed from "own funds" to include "own funds and self-raised funds" to enhance capital efficiency [2]. Group 3: Impact of Share Cancellation - Following the cancellation of shares, the total share capital decreased from 172,177,634 shares to 167,822,367 shares, with a change in the structure of restricted and unrestricted shares [5]. - The cancellation is expected to improve earnings per share and enhance investor confidence without affecting the company's operational capabilities or control [5][6]. Group 4: Future Arrangements - The company will proceed with necessary legal and regulatory changes following the share cancellation, including updating the registered capital and amending the company’s articles of association [6].

Economic Overview - In January-February 2025, both industrial and service sector production achieved rapid growth, but domestic demand remains weak and external demand has declined, indicating a need for further optimization of the supply-demand structure [1][2] - The industrial added value growth rate for January-February was 5.9%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 5.1%, driven mainly by the transportation equipment, metal products, and equipment manufacturing sectors [3][4] - Investment growth in January-February significantly surpassed market expectations, primarily due to strong infrastructure investment performance, while manufacturing investment showed resilience and real estate investment's decline narrowed [14][25] Production Insights - The industrial added value growth was supported by "promoting consumption" and "grabbing exports," with manufacturing sector performance particularly strong in January-February [3][4] - The service sector also maintained a high growth rate, with modern service industries showing particularly good performance [3][4] - However, high-frequency data and tariff impacts suggest that both industrial and service sectors may face weakening pressures in the future [3][4] Investment Analysis - Total investment, infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate development investment in January-February were 4.1%, 9.9%, 9.0%, and -9.8% respectively, showing significant improvements compared to the same period last year [14][25] - The strong performance of narrow infrastructure investment was attributed to the proactive commencement of major projects post-Spring Festival and good progress in the issuance of special bond funds [14][25] - Manufacturing investment is expected to improve in the second quarter of 2025, driven by the continuation of equipment renewal policies and marginal improvements in PPI [14][25] Consumption Trends - In January-February, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 837.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.0%, slightly below the market expectation of 4.5% [25] - The growth rate of commodity retail was recorded at 3.9%, while catering revenue growth increased to 4.3%, reflecting improved consumption during the Spring Festival [25] - Future consumption support is anticipated from the recovery of housing prices and stock markets, increased social security income, and the continuation of "old-for-new" policies [25]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the economy, with a focus on policy support and external demand as key drivers for growth [2][3]. Core Insights - The overall economic recovery is still reliant on policy measures and external demand, with internal dynamics such as consumer spending and private investment needing improvement [3][4]. - The production sector shows steady performance, with industrial value-added growth at 5.9% year-on-year for January-February 2025, slightly lower than December 2024's 6.2% [8][10]. - Consumer spending is recovering, with retail sales growth of 4.0% year-on-year in January-February 2025, up from 3.7% in December 2024 [17][21]. - Investment is showing marginal improvement, with fixed asset investment growth at 4.1% year-on-year for January-February 2025, compared to 3.2% for the entire previous year [24][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Production: Steady Performance - Industrial value-added growth for January-February 2025 is 5.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.51% in February [8][10]. - Export-oriented sectors like transportation equipment and automotive show the highest growth rates, while real estate-related sectors remain subdued due to slow downstream demand [10][12]. 2. Consumption: Bright Performance in Services - Social retail sales grew by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February 2025, higher than December 2024's 3.7% [17][21]. - Service retail sales increased by 4.9%, although this is a decline from December's 6.2% [17][21]. - Online consumption shows a significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% in January-February 2025, compared to 1.5% in December 2024 [21][22]. 3. Investment: Marginal Improvement - Fixed asset investment growth is at 4.1% year-on-year for January-February 2025, an increase from 3.2% in the previous year [24][25]. - Real estate investment shows a year-on-year decline of 9.8%, while manufacturing and broad infrastructure investments grow at 9.0% and 10.0%, respectively [25][26]. - The improvement in broad infrastructure investment is primarily driven by high growth in electricity and heat supply investments, which increased by 25.4% [26][27].