Group 1: Market Overview - From June 9-13, the second round of China-US negotiations became a major variable affecting interest rate trends, with tariffs remaining unchanged, benefiting bonds and gold as safe-haven assets[1] - As the tax period approached, liquidity tightened, leading to cautious short-term pricing in the bond market, with interest rates and similar rate products slowing down[1] - The one-year government bond yield struggled to break 1.4%, resulting in an overly flat yield curve[3] Group 2: Liquidity and Central Bank Actions - Market concerns about liquidity stability eased as the month progressed, with 1.83 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit successfully renewed[2] - The central bank's proactive measures included increasing the daily open market operation (OMO) injection to 202.5 billion yuan on June 13, reflecting a firm stance on liquidity support[2] - The central bank's actions shifted from implicit to explicit, effectively guiding market expectations and stabilizing funding rates[2] Group 3: Yield Curve Dynamics - Historical analysis indicates that extreme flattening of the yield curve is often linked to central bank tightening, with subsequent steepening reliant on a shift in the central bank's stance[3] - The current yield curve is at a critical point where it may transition from flat to steep, contingent on the central bank's future actions and market adaptation[3] - The 10Y-1Y yield spread is currently at 24 basis points, placing it in the 13th percentile of historical data, indicating limited room for further compression[3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - In anticipation of a potential steepening of the yield curve, investment strategies should focus on increasing duration in portfolios, particularly in 10-year non-active bonds and high-quality local government bonds[6] - The duration of interest rate bond funds has reached a historical high of 5.23 years, while credit bond funds have risen to 2.43 years, indicating heightened risk exposure in the market[6] - Despite high duration levels, the market's sensitivity to negative factors may increase, necessitating careful monitoring of market conditions[6]

Macro Outlook - The overall direction remains favorable, but the market should be viewed from the perspective of a high-volatility oscillating market throughout the year [4] Mid-Market Outlook - Supply-demand contradictions persist, with potential for short-term mismatches leading to phase-specific market opportunities. Credit bond supply remains weak, with city investment bonds entering a stock era and industrial bonds continuing to increase supply [4][11] - Demand for credit bonds is supported by a fluctuating market and expanding institutional liabilities, although valuation volatility may increase [4] Micro Outlook - Overall credit risk is manageable, but attention should be paid to localized risks [4] Market Outlook - In the second half of the year, the value of credit bond coupons is expected to be certain amid high volatility. The supply-demand contradiction remains, and while credit risk is generally controllable, valuation volatility may increase due to accelerated net value adjustments in wealth management products [4] Credit Strategy - A strategy focusing on mid-to-short-term bonds is preferred, with a recommendation to maintain duration but exercise restraint, especially after August. Opportunities may arise in 3-5 year high-grade credit bonds [4] City Investment Bonds - The process of debt resolution is entering a verification phase, with a focus on risk control. The expected acceleration in the clearance of hidden debts may lead to increased pressure on city investment platforms [6] - Investment strategies should focus on 3-year AA(2) rated bonds, considering regions with strong fiscal support and high land acquisition announcements [6] Industrial Bonds - The fundamentals of industrial bond issuers are under pressure, and caution is advised in selecting lower-rated bonds. Structural opportunities may exist in high-grade bonds and specific sectors [6] Bank Perpetual Bonds - The difficulty of trading in bank perpetual bonds is increasing, making it crucial to grasp market rhythms. The supply of these bonds is expected to remain weak, and trading strategies should focus on 4-5 year high-grade perpetual bonds [6] Market Review - From January to May 2025, the issuance of traditional credit bonds was 55,164 billion, with net financing of 7,623 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.5% and 23.1% respectively [11] - The net financing of city investment bonds and industrial bonds both showed a year-on-year decline, indicating a trend of slight net outflow for city investment bonds and net inflow for industrial bonds [11] Secondary Market Review - Since the beginning of 2025, the credit bond yield has shown a downward trend, with the credit spread shifting from a "weak oscillation" to a "strong oscillation" [19][23] - The overall credit risk premium has narrowed, with lower-rated bonds performing better in terms of yield [30]

固收周报 20250615 周观：债市窄幅震荡态势何时能够结束？ （2025 年第 23 期） [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 观点 2025 年 06 月 15 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐沐阳 证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 执业证书：S0600523060003 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20250609- 20250613）》 2025-06-14 《 二 级 资 本 债 周 度 数 据 跟 踪 （20250609-20250613）》 2025-06-14 东吴证券研究所 1 / 41 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] 固收周报 内容目录 | 1. 一周观点… | | --- | | 2. 国内外数据汇 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This period's local bond issuance and net financing decreased compared to the previous period, and it is expected that both the issuance and net financing of local bonds will increase in the next period. The current period (2025.06.09 - 2025.06.15) saw a total local bond issuance/net financing of 1077.86 billion yuan/-430.12 billion yuan (previous period was 1095.95 billion yuan/507.51 billion yuan), and the next period (2025.06.16 - 2025.06.22) is expected to have an issuance/net financing of 2617.53 billion yuan/1242.66 billion yuan [3]. - The issuance of new local bonds slowed down this period, and it is expected to speed up slightly in the next period. As of June 13, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 45.1% and 35.2% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 48.5% and 36.2%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 40.5%/30.3% and 42.5%/33.4%, and in 2023 it was 52.1%/48.3% and 56.1%/52.2% [3]. - The planned issuance scale of local bonds in June 2025 is 10137 billion yuan in total, with new special bonds amounting to 5678 billion yuan. As of June 13, 2025, 27 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 10137 billion yuan for local bonds in June 2025, with new special bonds at 5678 billion yuan. The issuance in the same regions in the previous year was 4924 billion yuan and 2149 billion yuan respectively, and the national issuance in the previous year was 6714 billion yuan and 3327 billion yuan respectively [3]. - This period saw the issuance of 15 billion yuan in special new special bonds and 267 billion yuan in special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts. As of June 13, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 2454 billion yuan (15 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts reached 16835 billion yuan (267 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 84.2%. 21 regions including Zhejiang have completed all issuances (no new regions this period) [3]. - This period saw a narrowing of the spread between 10Y and 30Y local bonds and treasury bonds, and a week - on - week increase in the weekly turnover rate. As of June 13, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds were 19.25BP and 23.15BP respectively, narrowing by 2.28BP and 0.25BP compared to June 6, 2025 (21.53BP and 23.40BP on June 6, 2025), and were at the 47.80% and 89.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively. The weekly turnover rate of local bonds this period was 1.15%, up from 0.69% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps were better than the national average [3]. - Currently, local bonds have both allocation and trading value. Taking 10 - year local bonds as an anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP. For institutions such as bank self - operations, insurance, and securities firm self - operations, local bonds have certain allocation value, and it is recommended to focus on the allocation value of local bonds with a term of 7 years and above, especially the 10/15/30 - year terms. For institutions such as public funds, local bonds still have trading value, and investment opportunities in local bonds can be seized at an appropriate time. It is recommended to focus on the participation opportunities of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year (with considerable riding income and good trading activity) and 20 - 30 - year (high absolute coupon and high trading activity) local bonds, and specifically select bonds in regions with high valuation cost - effectiveness and good liquidity [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period's local bond issuance volume decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - This period's local bond issuance decreased compared to the previous period, and the next period's issuance is expected to increase. The total issuance this period was 1077.86 billion yuan (previous period was 1095.95 billion yuan), and the next period's forecast issuance is 2617.53 billion yuan [3][11]. - The weighted issuance term of local bonds this period was 13.35 years, shorter than the previous period's 14.27 years [3][12]. - As of June 13, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 45.1% and 35.2% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 48.5% and 36.2%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 40.5%/30.3% and 42.5%/33.4%, and in 2023 it was 52.1%/48.3% and 56.1%/52.2% [3][15][17]. - As of June 13, 2025, 27 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 10137 billion yuan for local bonds in June 2025, with new special bonds at 5678 billion yuan. The issuance in the same regions in the previous year was 4924 billion yuan and 2149 billion yuan respectively, and the national issuance in the previous year was 6714 billion yuan and 3327 billion yuan respectively [3][23]. - As of June 13, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 2454 billion yuan (15 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts reached 16835 billion yuan (267 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 84.2%. 21 regions including Zhejiang have completed all issuances (no new regions this period) [3][21]. 3.2 This period's 10Y and 30Y local bond spreads over treasury bonds both narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased month - on - month - As of June 13, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds were 19.25BP and 23.15BP respectively, narrowing by 2.28BP and 0.25BP compared to June 6, 2025 (21.53BP and 23.40BP on June 6, 2025), and were at the 47.80% and 89.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [3][25][30]. - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds this period was 1.15%, up from 0.69% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps were better than the national average [3][36].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The credit demand is weak, but the growth rate of social financing is stable. The new loans in May 2025 decreased year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand and the impact of implicit debt replacement. The growth rate of M2 was stable month-on-month, and the growth rate of M1 rebounded. The social financing in May increased year-on-year, and the growth rate of social financing was stable. It is expected that the new loans in 2025 will increase slightly year-on-year, the net financing of government bonds will expand significantly year-on-year, the social financing will increase significantly year-on-year, and the growth rate of social financing may rise first and then fall, with an estimated year-end growth rate of about 8.3%. Interest rate bonds may experience narrow fluctuations in stages, and 5Y credit bonds with a yield of more than 2% are favored [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Credit Demand Analysis - In May 2025, the new loans decreased year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand and the impact of implicit debt replacement. The new individual loans were +540 million, including -208 million in short-term individual loans and +746 million in medium - and long - term individual loans, with a slight year-on-year increase. The new short - term corporate loans were +1.1 billion, the new medium - and long - term corporate loans were +3.3 billion, and the bill financing was +746 million. Due to low capacity utilization in manufacturing, weak real estate investment, and limited infrastructure investment space, credit demand may be weak in the long term [2]. M1 and M2 Analysis - Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber, which further includes personal current deposits and customer reserves of non - bank payment institutions on the basis of the previous M1. As of the end of May 2025, the balance of the new - caliber M1 reached 108.9 trillion yuan. In May, the growth rate of the new - caliber M1 was 2.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 percentage points, and the growth rate of M2 was 7.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The growth rates of both the new and old M1 calibers have significantly rebounded since Q4 2024, reflecting an improvement in economic activity [2]. Social Financing Analysis - In May 2025, the social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, a significant year - on - year increase of 0.22 trillion yuan, mainly from the net financing of government bonds and corporate bonds. The increment of RMB loans to the real economy was 59.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 22.37 billion yuan; the undiscounted bank acceptance bills were - 11.62 billion yuan; the net financing of corporate bonds was +14.96 billion yuan; the net financing of government bonds was 1.46 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.67 billion yuan. The growth rate of social financing at the end of May was 8.7%, the same as at the end of the previous month and 0.7 percentage points higher than at the beginning of the year [2]. Bond Investment Suggestion - Interest rate bonds may experience narrow fluctuations in stages, and 5Y credit bonds with a yield of more than 2% are favored. The reduction of long - term time deposit interest rates of major banks in May 2025 is beneficial to credit bonds. The reduction of deposit interest rates is expected to promote the growth of wealth management scale, and the wealth management scale may increase significantly in July, further compressing credit spreads. In 2025, bond market investment needs to be cautious, and attention should be paid to stock and convertible bond investment opportunities and Hong Kong - listed bank stocks [2].

美国急着要发8000多亿美元国债，四个月内全得出手，可十年期美债收益率已经飙到5%。 面对美方求援，咱们一口回绝，如今中国退居至美国第三大海外"债主"。 从购入到减持，中国为啥步步后退？这背后有什么盘算？ 作者-水 耶伦求援记 2023年7月的那个下午，耶伦踏上了北京的土地，这位美国财政部长脸上写满了焦急。 她此行的目的再明白不过，美国财政部的钱袋子眼看就要见底，国会两党还在为债务上限吵得不可开交。政府随时可能"关门大吉"，而解决这个烂摊子的唯 一办法，就是继续发债。 可问题来了，8500亿美元的新债谁来接盘？华尔街的那些金融大鳄早就被美债的风险吓得够呛。十年期美债收益率飙升至5%，这个数字听起来不错，但背 后的风险更让人心惊胆战。 耶伦把希望寄托在了中国身上，毕竟，咱们曾经是美债的头号买家，手里攥着超过万亿美元的美国国债。在她看来，只要中国点个头，其他国家自然会跟 进，这场债务危机就能暂时化解。 前言 2008年，全球金融危机爆发的时候，中国可是二话不说就豪掷万亿救美国。那会儿华尔街哀鸿遍野，雷曼兄弟倒闭，整个美国金融体系摇摇欲坠。 咱们当时是怎么做的？眼都不眨就增持了大量美债。一年内，中国持有的美国国债从 ...

Primary Market - A total of 24 offshore bonds were issued this week, including 4 offshore RMB bonds, 11 USD bonds, 7 HKD bonds, 1 SGD bond, and 1 EUR bond, with issuance scales of 14.2717 billion RMB, 1.9226 billion USD, 78.486 billion HKD, 125 million SGD, and 150 million EUR respectively [2] - The largest single issuance in the offshore RMB bond market was 1.1 billion RMB by Xinyin (Hong Kong) Investment Co., Ltd. The highest coupon rate for RMB bonds this week was 6.9%, issued by Zoucheng City Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. [2] - In the USD bond market, the largest single issuance was 500 million USD by Guangdong Hengjian Investment Holdings Co., Ltd., with the highest coupon rate of 11.88% from New Town Development Holdings Limited [2] Secondary Market - The yield of Chinese offshore USD bonds rose across the board this week, with the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD bond composite index increasing by 0.27% to 243 [3] - The real estate USD bond index rose by 0.6% to 179.89, while the city investment USD bond index increased by 0.3% to 149.02 [3] - The largest weekly increase in Chinese offshore bonds was seen in the USD bond issued by Peng Bo Telecom, which surged by 365.79% to 8.85 [3][4] Credit Ratings - On June 9, Mudanjiang Urban Investment Group's "BB+" international long-term issuer rating was withdrawn at the company's request [9] - On June 10, Chengdu Jiaozi Modern Urban Industrial Development Co., Ltd.'s "BBB" international long-term issuer rating was also withdrawn for commercial reasons [9] Domestic News - As of June 7, the issuance of technology innovation bonds exceeded 370 billion RMB, with 147 institutions participating [11] - The total issuance of MOX bonds reached approximately 938.943 billion MOP, with RMB-denominated bonds accounting for about 39.067 billion MOP [12] - Public funds have distributed over 95.643 billion RMB in dividends this year, with bond funds being the main contributors [13] Offshore Debt Alerts - New Town Development announced a cash tender offer for two USD bonds maturing this year, issuing 300 million USD in new bonds with a coupon rate of 11.88% [15] - Rongsheng Development plans to settle debts of approximately 810 million RMB through asset swaps [16] - Kaisa Group seeks to extend its restructuring deadline to September 30, 2025, due to regulatory approval delays [17] - Yuexiu Property secured a sustainable development-linked loan of 1.56 billion HKD with a three-year term [18]

周五（6月13日）欧市尾盘，法国10年期国债收益率涨7.1个基点，报3.253%，日内持续上行，本周累计 上涨0.9个基点，以色列袭击伊朗产生"膝跳反应"式的避险需求——在周五欧股开盘之前微幅跳水至 3.152%，随后追随油价涨势而走高。 希腊10年期国债收益率涨6.0个基点，报3.283%，本周累涨0.9个基点，整体呈现出W形走势。 意大利10年期国债收益率涨7.9个基点，报3.484%，日内持续上行，本周累跌1.8个基点，整体交投区间 为3.520%-3.383%。 西班牙10年期国债收益率涨8.0个基点，报3.159%，本周累涨0.6个基点，整体呈现出W形走势，周五欧 股盘前曾跳水至3.047%。 ...

Group 1 - The yield on Germany's 10-year government bonds increased by 5.8 basis points to 2.535%, with a cumulative decline of 4.0 basis points for the week [1] - The two-year German bond yield rose by 4.0 basis points to 1.856%, experiencing a cumulative drop of 2.4 basis points for the week [1] - The 30-year German bond yield increased by 5.5 basis points to 2.987%, with a cumulative decline of 2.2 basis points for the week [1] Group 2 - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bonds increased by 1.903 basis points to +67.541 basis points, with a cumulative decline of 1.450 basis points for the week [1]

德国十年期国债收益率上涨5个基点至2.53%。 ...