1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In the second week of December 2025, significant meetings were held, focusing on the effectiveness of existing policies with limited new increments. After the previous adjustment, the bond market's cost - effectiveness became prominent. In the first half of the week, the bond market overcame negative factors, with the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds showing significant recovery, and China Development Bank bonds performing better than Treasury bonds. On Friday, the expectation of fiscal expansion led to profit - taking pressure, driving the bond market to correct again, and the 30 - year Treasury bond almost erased its previous gains. Throughout the week, the yield of the 1 - year Treasury bond active bond decreased by 1.25BP to 1.3875%, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond increased by 1.4BP to 1.8425%, and the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.45BP to 2.2470%. The central bank had a net injection of 47 billion yuan, the capital sentiment index was generally below 50, the capital market was stable and loose, the issuance price of 1 - year certificates of deposit of state - owned and joint - stock banks dropped to 1.6517%, and the weighted price of DR007 rose to 1.4691% [4][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest - rate Bond Market Review: Bond Market First Strong Then Weak after "Double Cut" Mentioned in Important Meetings - **Monday (December 8)**: The central bank had a net injection of 147 billion yuan in the morning. With better - than - expected exports in November and the adjustment of insurance business risk factors, the equity market opened high and moved higher. After the Politburo meeting in the afternoon, there was limited new information, and bond yields first decreased and then increased under the influence of easing expectations. The long - term and ultra - long - term bonds remained weak. The 7 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.25BP to 1.7325%, the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield increased by 0.40BP to 1.8325%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.85BP to 2.2600% [2][9][11] - **Tuesday (December 9)**: The central bank had a net withdrawal of 390 billion yuan in the morning. DR001 dropped below 1.3%. With the weak adjustment of the equity market and the conclusion of the Politburo meeting, the bond market sentiment stabilized marginally. China Development Bank bonds performed better than Treasury bonds. The 7 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.75BP to 1.7250%, the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield increased by 0.25BP to 1.8350%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.65BP to 2.2535% [2][12] - **Wednesday (December 10)**: The central bank had a net injection of 1015 billion yuan in the morning. Inflation data met expectations, the expectation of real - estate incremental policies increased, and the expectation of loose money spread. The bond market continued to recover throughout the day. The 30 - year Treasury bond active bond yield decreased by 1.65BP. The 7 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.85BP to 1.7165%, the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield remained unchanged at 1.8350%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1.75BP to 2.2360% [2][13] - **Thursday (December 11)**: The central bank had a net withdrawal of 622 billion yuan in the morning. With the continued adjustment of the equity market, the bond market continued to recover due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. At the end of the day, the Central Economic Work Conference mentioned "double cut", and the bond - buying sentiment briefly flared up, with yields accelerating the recovery. The 30 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by nearly 3BP. The 7 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1.65BP to 1.7000%, the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield decreased by 2.00BP to 1.8150%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 2.80BP to 2.2080% [2][14] - **Friday (December 12)**: The central bank had a net withdrawal of 193 billion yuan. The equity market opened low and moved high. The Financial Times quoted experts saying that the supply of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds would increase next year. Profit - taking pressure drove most bond yields up. Treasury bonds with maturities over 5 years increased by 2 - 4BP, and the 30 - year Treasury bond almost erased all its previous gains. The 7 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 2.75BP to 1.7275%, the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield increased by 2.75BP to 1.8425%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 3.9BP to 2.2470% [3][15][16] 3.2 Capital Market The central bank had a net injection of 47 billion yuan through open - market operations (OMO), the capital sentiment index was generally below 50, and the capital market was stable and loose. The issuance price of 1 - year certificates of deposit of state - owned and joint - stock banks dropped to 1.65%, and the weighted price of DR001 dropped below 1.3% to 1.2747% [4][8] 3.3 Primary Issuance The net financing of Treasury bonds, policy - bank financial bonds, and local government bonds increased, while the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [5] 3.4 Benchmark Changes The term spreads of both Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds widened. Specifically, the yields of short - term Treasury bonds decreased by 1.37BP, and those of short - term China Development Bank bonds decreased by 1.99BP. The yields of long - term Treasury bonds decreased by 0.84BP, and those of long - term China Development Bank bonds decreased by 1.75BP. The short - term varieties of both Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds performed better than the long - term ones. In terms of the absolute level of term spreads, the 10Y - 1Y spread of Treasury bonds widened by 0.53BP to 45.17BP, and the 10Y - 1Y spread of China Development Bank bonds widened by 0.24BP to 37.90BP [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market rebounded slightly, with the yield curve continuing to steepen. Affected by the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, the bond market was bullish from Monday to Thursday, but turned weak on Friday due to concerns about bond supply pressure. Overall, long - term bond yields declined, and short - term bond yields declined more than long - term ones, resulting in a wider term spread. [3] - This week, the bond market is expected to oscillate weakly. Despite the weak fundamentals shown by November's economic data, the market reaction has been dull. With factors such as year - end profit - taking by institutions, the upcoming implementation of new regulations on public fund sales, expected increase in nominal GDP growth rate, and the stock - bond ratio, market sentiment remains cautious. [3] Summary by Sections 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market warmed up last week, with long - term bond yields declining slightly. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.09% for the whole week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.84bp and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1.37bp compared to the previous Friday, and the term spread continued to widen. [4] - On December 8, the bond market was weak in the morning and then recovered in the afternoon after the Politburo meeting mentioned a "moderately loose monetary policy". The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.19bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.02%. [4] - On December 9, after the Politburo meeting clarified the "moderately loose" monetary policy for 2026, the bond market oscillated bullishly. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.74bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.12%. [4] - On December 10, the release of worse - than - expected November PPI data and loose funds continued to boost the bond market. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.22bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.06%. [4] - On December 11, the Central Economic Work Conference's statement on maintaining liquidity drove the bond market to continue to recover. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.43bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.09%. [4] - On December 12, concerns about bond supply pressure led to a weak bond market. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased slightly by 0.08bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.13%. [4][5] 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 97 interest - rate bonds were issued, an increase of 19 compared to the previous week. The issuance volume was 12959 billion, a significant increase of 8652 billion, and the net financing was 3953 billion, an increase of 4751 billion. The issuance volume of Treasury bonds increased significantly, while that of policy - bank bonds and local bonds decreased. The net financing of all three types of bonds increased. [12] 2. Last Week's Important Events - In November, export growth rebounded unexpectedly, with a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, 7.0 percentage points faster than in October. Import growth was 1.9%, 0.9 percentage points faster than in October. [14] - The Politburo meeting on December 8 analyzed and studied the 2026 economic work, affirming the current economic situation and setting goals for next year. It is estimated that the 2025 GDP growth target will be set between 4.5% and 5.0%. [14] - In November, CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to rising vegetable prices and international gold prices. PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with a slightly wider decline due to a higher base. [14][15] - In November, new RMB loans were 3900 billion, 1900 billion less than the same period last year, mainly due to weak domestic and external demand. New social financing was 24885 billion, 1597 billion more than the same period last year, mainly driven by increased corporate bond financing. [16] - The Central Economic Work Conference from December 10 - 11 set the tone for 2026's macro - policies, maintaining continuity and stability. It is expected that the low - price situation will ease, and there is room for macro - policies to stimulate growth. [16] 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, high - frequency production data showed mixed trends. Blast furnace operating rates and daily hot - metal production declined, while asphalt plant operating rates and semi - steel tire operating rates increased. [18] - From the demand side, the BDI index dropped significantly, the CCFI index rebounded slightly, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities rebounded slightly. [18] - In terms of prices, pork prices continued to decline slightly, and most commodity prices fell, including steel and oil, while copper prices rose. [18] 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net open - market investment last week was 47 billion. [30] - R007 and DR007 both increased, the issuance rate of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit decreased slightly, and the discount rates of national and joint - stock banks' direct bills increased. [31] - The trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to increase, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio increased significantly. [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - The recent exploration of new third-party valuation methods by several bank wealth management companies reflects a significant shift in the asset management industry, driven by the need for fair and stable bond valuations as the industry transitions to net asset value (NAV) methods [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics and Valuation Sources - The market is increasingly questioning the fairness and stability of bond valuations, particularly in the context of the transition to net asset value methods mandated by regulatory changes [1] - There is a growing focus on identifying high-quality valuation sources that can withstand market scrutiny, moving from a discussion of the need for multiple valuation sources to the quality of those sources [1][2] - The credit bond market, with a total scale exceeding 50 trillion yuan, faces challenges as many bonds remain inactive in trading, raising concerns about the reliability of valuations based solely on limited transaction data [1][3] Group 2: Criteria for Quality Valuation - A quality credit bond valuation source must be anchored on three pillars: a multi-dimensional data foundation, transparency in methodology, and alignment with regulatory goals to enhance market pricing efficiency [2][5] - The valuation process should not merely replicate market prices but require deep credit analysis, especially in a market where many bonds have sparse trading activity [2][4] Group 3: Challenges in Bond Valuation - The lack of active trading in many credit bonds complicates the determination of fair value, particularly during market volatility, where reliance on minimal transaction data can exacerbate price fluctuations [3][6] - The core issue in bond valuation is the depth of understanding of the bonds, necessitating a focus on the issuer's credit fundamentals when observable market data is insufficient [3][6] Group 4: The Role of Diverse Valuation Methods - The market is calling for diversified valuation methods that incorporate long-term credit risk assessments, moving beyond simple market price collection [4][8] - Establishing a multi-source valuation system is seen as a way to prevent price manipulation in illiquid bonds and ensure that bond prices reflect true market conditions [8][9] Group 5: Future of Bond Market Valuation - The push for multiple valuation sources aims to create a more resilient and efficient bond market ecosystem, enhancing the ability to meet the financing needs of the real economy [8][9] - Healthy competition among valuation institutions is expected to drive improvements in accuracy, transparency, and service quality, ultimately leading to a more effective pricing mechanism in the bond market [9]

Group 1 - The report suggests that investors should focus on three key issues regarding the current bond market, particularly the strong exit sentiment after the 30-year interest rate recovery, which has risen from approximately 2.13% to 2.28%, with a correction of over 8 basis points from its peak [6][10][39] - It raises the question of whether the 10-year interest rate may experience a decline after the significant widening of the 30-10Y spread, predicting a potential rise to 1.9% or higher in the next 1-2 months due to low expectations for short-term easing and lower-than-expected allocation power [11][40] - The report recommends focusing on short-term opportunities, particularly in the 2-year and under credit bonds, 3-4 year perpetual bonds, and 5-year government bonds, given the current low funding rates and the potential for increased preference for short-term credits and mid-term government bonds [12][40][41] Group 2 - The bond market has shown a slight rebound recently, attributed to the significant adjustments in the long-term bonds and expectations of monetary easing following important meetings [19] - The report indicates that the current yield curve is not steep, with the 10-1Y spread maintaining around 45 basis points, and suggests that the long-end rates will continue to influence curve movements, although significant steepening is unlikely [41][37] - It highlights that the valuation of bonds is relatively low compared to equities, with the current 10-year government bond yield being at a lower percentile compared to historical data, indicating that bonds are not overvalued [28][31][39]

Group 1: Silver Fund Premium - The only silver fund in China has reached a historical high premium of 12%, indicating that investors are buying at a price higher than the actual asset value [9][10] - The fund manager has issued multiple warnings about the risks of blindly purchasing high-premium fund shares, suggesting potential significant losses for investors [7][10] - Investors in the silver fund need the silver price to increase by at least 12% to make a profit, or find someone willing to buy at a higher price, otherwise, they face compounded losses [10] Group 2: Yield Curve Steepening - The yield curve is becoming steeper, meaning that long-term interest rates are rising faster than short-term rates, which poses risks for long-term bond fund investors [11][16] - The recent steepening of the yield curve is attributed to an increase in long-term debt issuance and a shift in investment focus towards the stock market, leading to a gradual rise in interest rates [18] - The current economic policy outlook suggests that the steepening trend in the yield curve may continue, indicating a potential for long-term interest rates to rise further [18] Group 3: Market Imbalances - Both the silver fund and the bond market reflect structural imbalances that could lead to value corrections, highlighting the importance of understanding the underlying causes of market distortions [20] - The silver fund's popularity is influenced by external factors such as trade conflicts, while the bond market's previous low rates were a result of supply shortages during an asset scarcity period [20] - Investors are advised to be cautious of potential pricing bubbles driven by market distortions, especially when many retail investors are involved [20]

2025/12/14 20:50 BCA：美联储最友好政策遇上最窄涨幅——2026 年十大关键观点 | ZeroHedge 优质的 BCA：美联储最友善的政策遭遇最窄涨幅——2026 年⼗⼤关键观点 泰勒·德登 2025年12⽉14⽇，星期⽇ - 凌晨3:00 由 Dhaval Joshi 通过 BCAResearch.com 撰写， " 朋友们的帮助让我嗨翻天， "披头⼠乐队唱道。这⾸列侬和⻨卡特尼的歌曲道出了2025年股市的真谛。与流⾏的说法相 反，推动股市的主要因素并⾮特朗普的贸易战，也不是⼈⼯智能的狂热。股市的主要驱动⼒是美国实际利率的波动（图表 1）。 2025年，在美联储的扶持下，股市⼤幅上涨。2026年，美联储若采取更加友好的政策，可能会推动股市进⼀步⾛⾼。 话虽如此，即使是最好的朋友也⽆法创造奇迹。进⼊2026年，股市进⼀步上涨⾯临的最⼤挑战是，此轮上涨⾏情是史上最为 集中的。 如今，全球股市三分之⼆的市值集中在美国股市，其中40%的市值⼜集中在⼗只股票上，⽽这⼗只股票的命运都押注于⼀个 赌注：它们都将成为⼈⼯智能浪潮的赢家。结果是，全球股市超过四分之⼀的市值直接⾯临这⼀赌注失败的⻛险。 因此 ...

Policy Insights - The political bureau meeting emphasized "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," balancing growth stabilization and risk prevention for the medium to long term[2] - The central economic work conference provided detailed explanations of the political bureau's statements, confirming or refuting various market expectations[2] Interest Rate Dynamics - Long-term interest rates experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.84% and the 30-year bond yield slightly decreasing to 2.25% during the week of December 8-12[11] - Market concerns regarding monetary policy for 2026 include whether there will be increased monetary easing and the extent of fiscal stimulus[3][4] Fiscal Policy Projections - The target fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to remain around 4.0%, with new special bond issuance potentially increasing to approximately 5 trillion yuan and long-term special government bonds expanding to about 1.8 trillion yuan[4][24] - The projected increase in narrow deficit scale, special government bonds, and local special bond quotas for 2026 compared to 2025 is approximately 2.8 billion, 5 billion, and 6 billion yuan respectively, with a total increase in the range of 1.3 to 1.4 trillion yuan[4][24] Market Outlook - The combination of loose monetary policy and stable fiscal policy is expected to support the bond market in 2026[4][24] - The 10-year government bond yield is currently at 1.84%, close to the effective upper limit of 1.90%, indicating limited potential for adjustment in the bond market[6][30] Investment Strategies - For long-term investors, the focus should be on medium to long-term returns, as current yields may meet next year's return targets, suggesting gradual entry into the market[6][30] - For short-term traders, maintaining discipline and waiting for clearer signals before adjusting positions is recommended, with potential for small-scale contrarian operations during market adjustments[6][30] Risk Factors - Potential unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts pose risks to market stability[7]

Fixed Income - The central economic work conference indicates a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, suggesting that the current environment remains conducive to rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions [2][10] - The net financing scale of government bonds in 2026 is expected to slightly increase to around 14.5 trillion yuan, maintaining a stable issuance without significantly increasing supply pressure [10][12] - Social financing growth is projected to decline to approximately 7.3% in 2026, with a total increment of around 34 trillion yuan [10][12] - The bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected, with a potential policy interest rate cut of about 20 basis points anticipated [12][18] Pharmaceutical Industry - The collagen market shows significant potential, with animal-derived products having distinct advantages; Baijin Medical has three types of animal collagen products, with the first type recently approved [4][23] - The domestic market for animal-derived collagen in functional skincare and medical dressings is projected to reach 243 billion yuan by 2027 [23] - Baijin Medical is expected to submit 12 product registrations this year, with ongoing product launches anticipated, driving long-term growth [4][23] New Consumption - The CPI in November increased by 0.7%, primarily driven by rising food prices, marking the highest growth since March 2024 [28][29] - Lin Qingxuan, a high-end domestic skincare brand, reported a revenue of 1.052 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 98.3% [29][30] - The company has a strong offline presence with 554 stores, over 95% of which are located in shopping malls, positioning it as a leader among domestic and international high-end skincare brands [29][30] Metal New Materials - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points has led to an increase in copper prices, with expectations of a supply-demand shift towards a shortage in the future [32][33] - The lithium market is experiencing strong demand, with lithium prices entering an upward cycle due to ongoing inventory depletion [35] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to a tight supply situation, with recent changes in export regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo impacting the market [36] North Exchange - The recent adjustments to the North Exchange 50 and specialized indices are expected to enhance the quality and scale of listed companies, with a focus on performance and strong growth potential [39][40] - The market is showing signs of stabilization, with an emphasis on identifying undervalued assets and companies in strong growth sectors such as commercial aerospace and AI [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report As the bond market adjusts, multiple factors are gradually brewing and strengthening to support its stabilization. The supply pressure of government bonds is easing, and there is a possibility of shortening the issuance duration. On the demand side, the pressure on bank indicators may ease around the end of the year, the rising long - term bond yields will increase the allocation value of long - term bonds and boost the allocation demand of institutions such as insurance companies. Meanwhile, the reduction of trading institutions' positions will weaken the short - selling force. It is expected that the bond market will gradually stabilize in the subsequent period, start a trending market in the second half of the first quarter, and the 10 - year Treasury bond is still expected to hit a new low in the first quarter of next year [3][23]. 3. Summary by Related Content Bond Market Performance This Week - The bond market strengthened slightly overall this week but was volatile. After the Central Economic Work Conference mentioned reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts on Thursday, interest rates declined significantly, but on Friday, there was an obvious adjustment and most of the previous gains were given back. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds both declined by 0.8bps to 1.84% and 2.25% respectively. The 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - perpetual bonds declined by 3.9bps and 0.4bps to 2.02% and 2.24% respectively. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rose slightly by 0.5bps to 1.66% [1][7]. Supply - Side Factors for Bond Market Stabilization - The supply pressure of government bonds will ease in the future. As of December 12, the net financing of general Treasury bonds was 5.04 trillion yuan, the net financing of special Treasury bonds was 1.8 trillion yuan, the issuance of new special bonds was 4.6 trillion yuan, and the issuance of new general bonds was 770 billion yuan. Even considering the subsequent use of the 500 billion yuan local bond balance limit, the annual government bond issuance task is basically completed. Next week, government bonds will have a net repayment of 119.1 billion yuan, the first time since April this year that the net repayment exceeded 100 billion yuan, and the supply pressure before the end of the year may remain limited. Although there will still be significant supply pressure for government bonds next year, the supply pressure at the long - end may be limited at the beginning of the year [1][8]. - There is a possibility of adjusting the supply - side duration. As the interest rate of ultra - long - term bonds rises, the issuance cost of ultra - long - term bonds has increased significantly, which may lead to changes in the maturity selection of local government bonds. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds has climbed above 40bps, significantly higher than the low of about 16bps in the first quarter of this year. The average issuance term of local government bonds has decreased from 16.4 years in January this year to 14.8 years in October, which will alleviate the supply pressure of ultra - long - term bonds and support the market to stabilize [1][11]. Demand - Side Factors for Bond Market Stabilization - The phased alleviation of bank indicator pressure can help the market gradually stabilize. The recent bond market adjustment is mainly reflected in the decline of ultra - long - term bonds, mainly because banks have been continuously reducing their holdings of ultra - long - term bonds in the secondary market due to the pressure of the △EVE to Tier - 1 capital ratio. As the end of the year approaches, the pressure on bank indicators will gradually ease, and the motivation to significantly reduce long - term bond holdings will decline. At the beginning of the year, banks may obtain new capital supplements, and the pressure of indicator constraints may further improve, which will further reduce the selling demand and may even turn to buying [1][17]. - As interest rates rise, allocation - oriented institutions such as insurance companies may gradually increase their allocations. The slowdown in the insurance allocation rhythm in the fourth quarter is due to the slowdown in premium income growth, an increase in the equity ratio in asset allocation, and concerns about interest rate trends. However, as long - term bond interest rates continue to adjust, their cost - effectiveness has significantly increased. The insurance "good start" will bring new premium income, forming new allocation demand [2][17]. - The reduction of trading institutions' positions means the weakening of subsequent short - selling forces. Trading institutions such as securities firms and funds usually follow market trends, accelerating market adjustments during the recent market decline. However, as their positions decrease, the selling force will decline, alleviating market adjustment pressure. Once the market stabilizes, their position - adding may help the market stabilize [2][18]. - From the perspective of market position, the adjustment of long - term bonds will enhance their attractiveness in terms of absolute return and curve shape. The spread between mortgage loans and 30 - year Treasury bonds is at the lowest level since mid - 2017, and the spread with 30 - year local bonds is at the lowest level since relevant data became available, which will increase the allocation demand of institutions. The increase in the curve slope will enhance the cost - effectiveness of the barbell strategy, increasing the allocation of long - term bonds [3][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference were successively held. The policy orientation of the Politburo meeting returned to "strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment", and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized quality improvement and efficiency enhancement. The bond market yield declined overall but with a limited range. The bond market's reaction to the meetings was generally positive but still full of concerns [1][10]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a reasonable intensity, with a focus on optimizing policy project implementation and addressing local fiscal difficulties. In 2026, the deficit rate may remain at 4%, and the implementation of "two new" policies and "two important" projects will be optimized [1][11]. - Monetary policy support may increase, aiming to achieve stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. Policy tools will be used more flexibly and efficiently, and measures like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may cooperate with fiscal policy [2][11]. - The bond market's rise this year may be restricted by multiple factors, including concerns about ultra - long - term treasury bond supply, inflation expectations, and institutional behavior. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy at the end of the year [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, important meetings led to an increase in expectations of loose monetary policy, and the bond market generally recovered. The yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds both declined by 1bp. The yield first decreased and then increased during the week [9]. - Fiscal policy will maintain a reasonable intensity, with a focus on optimizing project implementation and addressing local fiscal difficulties. Monetary policy support will increase, aiming for economic growth and price recovery [11]. - The bond market's rise may be restricted by multiple factors. It is expected that reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used cautiously, and the curve may steepen. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy at the end of the year [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank had a net injection, and the funding rate declined. From December 8th to 12th, the central bank's open - market net injection was 47 billion yuan. The R001 and DR001 decreased by 2bp and 3bp respectively compared to December 5th [19][21]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields first decreased and then increased. The yields of key - term treasury bonds declined, and most of the term spreads widened. As of December 12th, the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds decreased by 1bp to 1.84% and 2.25% respectively [28][29]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - The weekly turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds rebounded to 43%, the inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 107.7%, and the median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds remained basically unchanged. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed [20][33]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased. The net financing of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all rose. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was negative, and the average issuance rate increased [47][53]. 3.3 Economic Data - In November, export growth rebounded, and the year - on - year increase in CPI expanded. The year - on - year growth rate of exports was 5.9%, and the year - on - year increase in CPI was 0.7% [57]. - The increase in social financing in November was higher than the same period last year, but household credit remained weak. Since December, new - home sales have weakened, while movie consumption has remained stronger than the seasonal average [58]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - The Fed completed its interest - rate cuts this year, and internal differences intensified. The bond markets in France and Germany declined, and most emerging markets also fell [67][68]. 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The performance of major asset classes this week was: live pigs > Shanghai copper > Shanghai gold > CSI 1000 > China bonds > CSI 300 > Convertible bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > US dollar > Rebar > Crude oil [3][74]. 3.6 Policy Review - Multiple departments held meetings to convey the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing policies such as risk prevention, financial support for key areas, and high - quality development [78][82]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised the bond trading business guide, optimizing specific bond element display and adding non - trading transfer business [83].