1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to structural opportunities in the rubber market. It recommends considering a strategy of going long on light - colored rubber and short on dark - colored rubber, as natural rubber starts seasonal inventory accumulation, and synthetic rubber reduces production and inventory while its raw material butadiene is expected to remain weak [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 Week - ly Core Points and Strategies - **Strategy View**: Natural rubber begins seasonal inventory accumulation, and synthetic rubber reduces production and inventory. Consider a long - light - short - dark strategy. The overall driving force of the rubber market is weak, and the inventory is expected to rise. The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, but production in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may be limited due to weather, and domestic production areas are about to enter a reduction period. Attention should be paid to synthetic rubber supply and substitution [10]. - **Import**: In October 2025, China imported a total of 667,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month decrease of 75,000 tons (-10%), and the cumulative import was 6.782 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 995,000 tons (+17.2%). Attention should be paid to the implementation of zero - tariff policies between China and African diplomatic countries and Thailand, and the EUDR is expected to be postponed [10]. - **Demand**: This week, tire production started with a slight month - on - month increase, and the full - steel tire production reached a relatively high seasonal level. Tire inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The European Commission officially launched an anti - subsidy investigation on passenger cars and light - truck tires on November 6, 2025 [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory increased by 17,100 tons to 1.056 million tons, mainly due to a 20,000 - ton increase in dark - colored rubber [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The raw material butadiene is expected to have sufficient supply. There are many maintenance devices for cis - butadiene rubber in November, resulting in production reduction and inventory decrease [10]. 3.2 02 Data Chart Tracking - **Raw Material Performance**: The performance of raw materials is significantly weaker than the same period last year, as shown by the data of Thai glue, Thai cup glue, and Yunnan glue [14]. - **Valuation and Basis**: RU valuation is very reasonable, NR basis is still in a strong area, and the RU - NR spread is strengthening. The data also shows the basis and spread trends of various rubber types such as full - milk rubber, Thai mixed rubber, and Vietnamese 3L rubber [17][22][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber Supply**: The weekly start - up of cis - butadiene rubber decreased month - on - month, but the profit turned positive, and the start - up is expected to increase in the later period. The monthly production of styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 22% year - on - year, and that of cis - butadiene rubber increased by 28% year - on - year. From January to September, the import of natural rubber increased by 19.6% year - on - year [44][50][52]. - **Demand**: Tire production start - up increased month - on - month, and inventory increased. The consumption of natural rubber decreased slightly year - on - year, and the semi - steel tire demand declined rapidly. In September, the export volume of new pneumatic tires decreased month - on - month, and the cumulative export increased year - on - year. In July, the US tire import volume increased month - on - month [54][56][64]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased, with a decrease in light - colored rubber and an increase in dark - colored rubber. The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber decreased month - on - month, BR warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the port inventory of butadiene was higher than the same period last year [66][73]. - **Profit**: The profit of natural rubber is still in a loss state [77]. - **Balance Sheet**: Seasonal inventory accumulation may have started in November. The supply - demand difference from August to October shows an excess, which is inconsistent with the social inventory reduction statistics of Longzhong. The inventory accumulation amplitude mainly depends on the import increment [79][80].

Report Information - Report Title: "Hualian Futures Rubber Weekly - Weak Demand Drags Down Rubber Prices" [2] - Date: 20251109 [2] - Analyst: Li Zhaofeng [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to decline and needs to stabilize. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts are favorable for the capital market, but the spill - over effects of a potential US recession should be watched out for [4]. - The long - term supply cycle is shifting, which boosts valuation, but supply is elastic. The current year's natural rubber production areas have better weather conditions than last year, and the supply is expected to be stable, with a projected 0.5% increase in global production and a 10% increase in China's imports [4]. - The exchange's ru warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and nr warehouse receipts were once at an extremely low level. Qingdao's dry rubber inventory has recently increased due to concentrated shipping schedules, and there is an expectation of further inventory build - up in the future. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high [4]. - Demand has been over - drawn by export rush and replacement demand. The real estate market shows no signs of improvement, and new vehicle and export demand are also weakening. Without strong policy support or inflation, demand will likely drag down the market [4]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on ru and short on nr, and to pay attention to the supply volume during the peak production season [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price - Natural rubber spot prices have weakened, with only a limited rebound from the previous low and still at a low level. Synthetic rubber prices have hit a new low for the year, deviating from the trends of natural rubber and crude oil [6]. - The ru basis is at a multi - year high, and the monthly spread has strengthened but remains in a contango structure, which is unfavorable for long positions [12]. - The ru 1 - 9 monthly spread has weakened to - 125 but is still stronger than last year. The nr consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 monthly spread is around - 35 and has weakened. The br consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 monthly spread is around 75 and has limited rebound momentum [17]. - The spread between spot whole latex and 20 - grade rubber has rebounded slightly from a low level, and synthetic rubber Br has weakened significantly compared to natural rubber [22]. Raw Material Prices - Thai raw material prices have stabilized marginally, and the weak spread between glue and cup lump suggests stable supply. Currently, the global market is in the peak production season with slightly more rainfall [27]. - Domestic raw material prices show that the absolute price of old whole latex has returned to the key range before last year's rally but is still at a medium level in recent years, and production incentives are still acceptable [10]. Processing Profits - Recent processing profits have declined again [32]. Inventory - Qingdao's dry rubber inventory increased in the latest week mainly due to concentrated shipping schedules. The overall current inventory is not high, but there is an expectation of further inventory build - up in the future. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high [37]. - The exchange's ru warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and nr warehouse receipts were once at an extremely low level. The nr warehouse receipts dropped rapidly from a multi - year high in the third quarter of last year and are still at a multi - year low [47][53]. - The synthetic rubber inventory is neutral. The in - factory inventory of butadiene rubber rebounded after reaching a two - year low, and the trader inventory dropped to a low level [56]. - The inventory of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires has decreased marginally [59]. Supply Side - According to ANRPC, the global natural rubber production in the first three quarters of this year is expected to increase by 2.3%, and consumption is expected to decrease by 1.5%. The global production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.95 million tons in 2025 [63][65]. - China's natural rubber production from January to December 2024 was 911,400 tons, a 10% increase from the previous 854,000 tons [68]. - In 2024, rubber imports were lower than in previous years due to factors such as EU eudr diversion, overseas inventory replenishment, and reduced arbitrage demand. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) reached 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In August 2025, imports were 664,000 tons, a 7.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024, but the growth rate has slowed down marginally [71]. - The large - cycle inflection point of supply - demand surplus has arrived, and the suppression of yield by production capacity has disappeared. The production capacity of natural rubber has reached an inflection point, providing a more solid bottom support, but production is affected by various factors such as weather, pests, and profit margins [81]. Demand Side - The operating rate of all - steel tires has remained stable and is at a medium level in recent years, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires is neutral [89]. - As of September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in tire outer - tube production was about 1.5%, with a marginal slight decline and a significantly slower growth rate compared to last year. As of September, the cumulative year - on - year increase in tire export volume was about 5.4%, which is relatively good but also lower than last year [93]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase compared to the same period last year. The large - scale infrastructure projects are beneficial for the long - term demand for heavy - trucks [97]. - Domestic passenger - car sales have performed well due to policy incentives, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are generally weak, and trade protectionism may further affect the market [102]. - Overall overseas automobile sales are mediocre, and trade wars have disrupted the consumption rhythm [105]. - The real estate market data from January to September 2025 continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, it will take time for the market to reverse [120]. - Road freight volume has been stable but is still lower than in 2019, reflecting a decline in demand and the substitution effect of railway and waterway transportation [124].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is expected to enter a period of range - bound consolidation. The domestic production areas are gradually entering the production reduction period, and the domestic raw material prices are firm. After the decline in rubber prices, downstream buyers are stocking up at low prices, which may increase the warehouse pick - up volume next week and slow down the inventory accumulation rate. From the perspective of inventory and phased supply, light - colored rubber may still perform better than dark - colored rubber [111]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In Q3 2025, the European replacement tire market sales decreased by 0.6% year - on - year to 63.984 million pieces. Passenger car tire sales decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, truck and bus tire shipments decreased by 4% year - on - year, agricultural tire shipments increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and motorcycle/scooter tire shipments increased by 1% year - on - year [5]. - In 2025, Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase by 1% to 4.86 million tons. The northern region will increase by 3.1%, the northeastern region by 1.3%, the central region will decrease by 1.7%, and the southern region will increase by 1.2%. The annual harvesting area is expected to slightly decrease by 0.1%, while the per - mu yield will increase by 0.9% [6]. - In October 2025, China imported 667,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 1.2% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to October, the total import volume was 6.782 million tons, a 17.2% increase from the same period in 2024 [7]. - The European Commission officially launched an anti - subsidy investigation into passenger cars and light - truck tires on November 6, 2025 [7]. Market Trends - This week, the prices of RU, NR, and the overseas TSR20 in the rubber market declined synchronously, with NR leading the decline, while the price of Japanese rubber increased. As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 14,995 yuan/ton, a 0.60% decrease from the previous period; the closing price of NR2601 was 12,035 yuan/ton, a 1.67% decrease; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2601 was 168.70 cents/kg, a 1.17% decrease; and the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2601 was 312.90 yen/kg, a 1.10% increase [9][11]. Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the rainfall in the southern region is lower than the same period, and the rainfall in the northeastern region shows a seasonal decline, with a slight increase at the end of the week due to the influence of typhoons. In China, the rainfall in Hainan production area decreased this week, and the rainfall in Yunnan production area decreased seasonally [41][43]. - The raw material prices in domestic and foreign production areas are showing a differentiated trend due to the typhoon's impact on rubber tapping and the weakened purchasing enthusiasm of factories. As of November 7, 2025, the price of glue in Thailand was 56.30 baht/kg, a 0.54% decrease from the previous period; the price of raw rubber sheets was 55.55 baht/kg, a 0.36% increase; the price of Hainan glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 13,000 yuan/ton, a 0.76% decrease; and the price of Yunnan glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 13,700 yuan/ton, a 2.84% decrease [45][47]. - The production profits of Thai standard rubber and Hainan concentrated latex increased, while the production profits of Thai smoked sheets and Thai concentrated latex decreased. As of November 7, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 559 yuan/ton, a 32.16% increase from the previous period; the production profit of Thai smoked sheets was 460.99 yuan/ton, a 12.84% decrease; the production profit of Thai concentrated latex was 1,967 yuan/ton, a 2.91% decrease; and the production profit of Hainan concentrated latex was - 133.77 yuan/ton, an 18.25% increase [55][58]. - In September 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. The exports of standard rubber decreased significantly year - on - year, while the exports of smoked sheets increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Thailand's natural rubber exports to China decreased month - on - month, with a significant increase in the exports of smoked sheets to China year - on - year and month - on - month, and a significant decrease in the exports of standard rubber year - on - year and month - on - month [65][68]. - In October 2025, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to the significant decrease in the exports of standard rubber, while the exports of mixed rubber continued to increase month - on - month. The total exports to China also decreased month - on - month [71]. - In September 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the exports to China decreased seasonally, with the reduction mainly in latex and standard rubber [75]. - In September 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports continued to grow at a high rate, and the exports to China increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [79]. - In September 2025, China imported 595,900 tons of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and composite rubber), a 14.41% increase month - on - month and a 20.92% increase year - on - year. The imports of Indonesian standard rubber and mixed rubber increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [83]. Demand - Last week, the production of maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate, and most other enterprises' equipment operated stably. During the period, the products were mainly sold in the normal way, and the overall inventory fluctuated slightly. The all - steel tires started to accumulate inventory again this week, and the semi - steel tires also accumulated inventory. As of November 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a 0.05% increase from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a 1.07% increase; the inventory days of all - steel tires were 39.20 days, a 0.49% increase; and the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 45.05 days, a 0.51% increase [86][88]. - In September 2025, the exports of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month, but the exports of all - steel tires were still at a relatively high level year - on - year. The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks continued to grow year - on - year and month - on - month, and the sales volume of passenger cars continued to grow at a high rate year - on - year and month - on - month [89]. - In September 2025, the freight turnover of road transportation improved year - on - year and month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [92]. Inventory - The current domestic natural rubber inventory has increased significantly, with an increase in dark - colored rubber and a decrease in light - colored rubber. The inventory in Qingdao has increased significantly. As of October 31, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.056 million tons, a 1.64% increase from the previous week; the inventory of dark - colored rubber was 657,900 tons, a 2.92% increase; and the inventory of light - colored rubber was 398,200 tons, a 0.40% decrease [99]. - As of November 7, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 119,000 tons, a 1.60% decrease from the previous week; the futures and spot inventory was 162,200 tons, a 0.08% increase; the futures inventory of 20 - grade rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 48,600 tons, an 8.80% increase; and the futures and spot inventory was 51,900 tons, a 5.97% increase [105]. This Week's View Summary - Supply: The domestic production areas are gradually entering the production reduction period, and the domestic raw material prices are firm. After the decline in rubber prices, downstream buyers are stocking up at low prices, which may increase the warehouse pick - up volume next week and slow down the inventory accumulation rate [111]. - Demand: This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%. The production of maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level last week, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will operate stably with a slight weakness in the next period [110]. - View: It is expected that the natural rubber market will enter a period of range - bound consolidation in the short term. From the perspective of inventory and phased supply, light - colored rubber may still perform better than dark - colored rubber [111]. - Strategy: For unilateral trading, consider buying on dips after a sharp decline; if the market is in a narrow - range consolidation, it is advisable to wait and see. For inter - period trading, observe. For options, investors who meet the suitability requirements can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [113].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities highlights significant volatility in global risk assets due to concerns over tightening overseas liquidity and discussions surrounding an "AI bubble" [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Global risk assets have experienced substantial fluctuations this week, influenced by a lack of economic data, frequent hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, and rising liquidity pressures in the money market due to government shutdown and fiscal constraints [1] - The strong dollar has suppressed global stock markets and commodity prices, with technology-heavy indices like Nikkei 225, Korean stock index, and Nasdaq leading the decline [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The probability of overseas liquidity tightening evolving into systemic risk is low, as solutions from the Federal Reserve and bipartisan negotiations to reopen the government are progressing, which may gradually alleviate external disturbances on risk appetite [2] - If the U.S. government shutdown ends as expected in mid-November and more economic data is released, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts will be recalibrated, potentially creating a window for global recovery [3] Group 3: AI Industry Analysis - The current discussions around the "AI bubble" have caused some disturbances in the domestic AI industry chain, but Industrial Securities believes that AI's empowerment of traditional industries is still in its early stages, making it incomparable to the internet bubble of 1999-2000 [4] - The development logic of the AI industry is clear, with major global tech companies continuously defining their AI strategies, and the fundamentals of leading companies in the U.S. stock market remain strong due to ongoing R&D investments and capital expenditures [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes AI as a key driver for national competition and technological innovation, indicating that the AI industry chain will be a focus area with favorable prospects next year [5] - The year-end market is seen as an important window for positioning in sectors expected to perform well in the coming year, with a focus on cyclical sectors such as steel, chemicals, construction materials, and new consumption [6][7] - High-growth sectors expected to see net profit growth of over 30% next year include AI hardware, new energy, and military industries, while sectors with expected growth of 10%-30% include pharmaceuticals and AI downstream applications [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, implying a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - Timber: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - 20 - day Rubber: ★☆☆, implying a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report assesses multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing investment ratings and analyzing the current market situation, supply - demand relationship, and price trends for each commodity, and giving corresponding investment suggestions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined slightly today, with the basis gradually weakening and spot trading being average. New cotton cost provides some support to the market, but price increases may face hedging pressure due to average demand. As of October 30, the cumulative processed lint cotton nationwide was 233.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.6 million tons. As of November 5, the cumulative inspection volume was 215.78 million tons. The demand for pure cotton yarn is average, and the new orders for weavers are poor. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, the production data in mid - October was neutral, with the cane crushing volume in mid - October basically flat year - on - year and the sugar - making ratio decreasing month - on - month but still slightly up year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar remained weak. There are rumors of syrup import control, providing some support. The market focus has shifted to the new season's production estimate. The sugar price is expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated widely. In the spot market, apple harvesting in Shandong is nearing the end, and there is little off - warehouse stock in the northwest. As of November 6, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 682.74 million tons, a 17% year - on - year decrease. The market focus has shifted to sales expectations. Apple prices are high, and there may be inventory pressure later. A bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - day Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU was weak, and NR & BR declined. The futures market sentiment was cautious. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - production period, but the Yunnan region in China is entering the low - production period. The domestic tire start - up rate increased slightly this week, and the inventory in Qingdao increased. The import volume in October was 66.7 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase and a 10.1% month - on - month decrease. A strategy of trading on oversold rebounds and paying attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities is recommended [5] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly today. As of November 6, the inventory at major ports in China was 200.8 million tons, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease. In September, the import volume was 295.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.25 million tons. The demand for pulp is average, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips [6] Timber - The futures price was weak. The mainstream spot price remained stable. In November, the New Zealand radiata pine price increased, but the domestic spot price was weak, and the import willingness of traders declined. The port delivery volume was above 60,000 cubic meters, and the inventory was low. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock, while the synthetic rubber market is expected to show a weakening shock. Attention should be paid to the widening price gap between natural and synthetic rubber [6][28]. Summary by Directory Report Summary (PART 01) - Market Focus: From November 5th to 11th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber - producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared to the previous period. In October, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%, with a penetration rate of 58.7%. The China Logistics Prosperity Index in October was 50.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 percentage points [6]. - Fundamental Situation: The price support of natural rubber raw materials is weakly stable, with a slight inventory build - up. The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, is weakening, and the industrial profit is shifting downstream. The inventory of butadiene rubber is decreasing, and the overall tire capacity utilization rate is stable [6]. - Main View: This week, the natural rubber futures showed a narrow - range weakening shock, and the synthetic rubber futures dropped significantly. The cost support of natural rubber is stronger than that of synthetic rubber. The price of natural rubber raw materials is relatively firm due to weather factors, while the cost support of synthetic rubber is weakening. The downstream tire demand is stable, and the inventory and demand have limited impact on the market [6]. Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - Bullish Factors: The inventory pressure of natural rubber is not obvious, and the price of natural rubber raw materials has support [9]. - Bearish Factors: The price of butadiene, the raw material for synthetic rubber, is falling, and the weakening of synthetic rubber prices drags down natural rubber [9]. Data Analysis (PART 03) - Natural Rubber Raw Material Price: As of November 6th, the price of Thai raw material glue was 56.3 Thai baht/kg, the price of glue in Yunnan was 13,700 yuan/ton, and that in Hainan was 12,900 yuan/ton. The raw material price is weakly stable due to weather and low procurement enthusiasm [10]. - Natural Rubber Inventory: As of October 31st, 2025, the overall natural rubber inventory increased slightly. The inventory in bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 400 tons, while that in general trade warehouses increased by 15,839 tons [14]. - Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber: Recently, the price of butadiene has dropped. The theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber has increased to 712.5714 yuan/ton as of November 7th. As of the same date, the production of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased by 352 tons, and the inventory in factories and among traders decreased [15][16][19]. - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of November 7th, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%. The overall tire inventory fluctuated slightly [20]. - Rubber Contract Spread: As of November 6th, the spread of the "RU - NR" January contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spread of the "NR - BR" main contract was strong due to the weakening cost support of synthetic rubber [23]. 后市研判 (PART 04) - The macro - level disturbances have eased this week, and the market has returned to trading based on fundamentals. The cost support of natural rubber is stronger than that of synthetic rubber. The weakening of synthetic rubber prices drags down natural rubber. Natural rubber will maintain a range - bound shock, and synthetic rubber will show a weakening shock [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Strategy suggestion: The short - term price of the br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,600 [7]. - Market review: This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market dropped sharply and then rebounded slightly, with the spot price ranging from 9,750 - 10,900 yuan/ton. Sinopec and most sales companies of PetroChina lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 800 yuan/ton in total. The price of raw material butadiene dropped more than expected due to the dual negative impacts of the expected increase in domestic supply and the continuous decline in foreign market negotiation prices, leading to a significant increase in market bearish sentiment [8]. - Market outlook: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Recently, the supply of raw material butadiene is sufficient and the negotiation price has been falling, continuously dragging down the cost side. Downstream buyers are bargaining, causing the negotiation price of private resources to drop significantly. Some production enterprises' inventory and sample trading enterprises' inventory have decreased. Next week, some plants will restart, and supply is expected to increase slightly. However, due to the expected increase in future domestic supply of the raw material, the cost side of cis - butadiene remains weak, and the situation of downstream terminal buyers firmly bargaining is difficult to change. The inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises may increase slightly. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises has returned to the normal level this week, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. Next week, most enterprises will maintain stable production to meet order demands. It is heard that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Highlights - Strategy: The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,600 [7]. - Market review and outlook: As described in the core viewpoints above [8]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 3.41% [12]. - Position analysis: No specific analysis content provided. - Inter - period spread: As of November 7, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was 0 [19]. - Warehouse receipts: As of November 7, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,990 tons, unchanged from last week [22]. 3.3. Spot Market - Price: As of November 6, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - Basis: As of November 6, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from last week [27]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of November 6, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 575.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 740 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [30]. - Butadiene capacity utilization and inventory: As of November 7, the weekly capacity utilization of butadiene was 70.32%, an increase of 2.32% from last week; the port inventory was 29,800 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons from last week [34]. 3.5. Industry Situation - Production and capacity utilization: In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from last month. As of November 6, the weekly capacity utilization of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 65.85%, a decrease of 1.1% from last week [37]. - Production profit: As of November 6, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was 539 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - Inventory: As of November 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 29,290 tons, a decrease of 1,590 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 25,770 tons, a decrease of 1,430 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 3,520 tons, a decrease of 160 tons from last week [45]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - Tire开工率: As of November 6, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. The production scheduling of maintenance enterprises has returned to normal, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization, and most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably [48]. - Export demand: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, the cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 260,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.87%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.5008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.26%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.86% and a year - on - year increase of 8.74%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 3.6279 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.67% [51].

Core Insights - The rubber sector experienced a decline of 0.31% on November 7, with Zhen'an Technology leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3997.56, down 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, down 0.36% [1] Rubber Sector Performance - Notable gainers in the rubber sector included: - Sanwei Equipment (code: 920834) with a closing price of 17.34, up 4.71% and a trading volume of 109,300 shares, totaling 193 million yuan [1] - Yuanxiang New Materials (code: 301300) closed at 43.07, up 3.81% with a trading volume of 42,200 shares, totaling 183 million yuan [1] - Litong Technology (code: 920225) closed at 40.08, up 2.30% with a trading volume of 55,100 shares, totaling 217 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Quecheng Co. (code: 605183) closed at 19.79, up 1.96% [1] - Haida Co. (code: 300320) closed at 10.03, up 1.42% [1] Decliners in the Rubber Sector - Zhen'an Technology (code: 300767) led the declines with a closing price of 20.69, down 3.27% and a trading volume of 83,600 shares, totaling 174 million yuan [2] - Other notable decliners included: - Fengwu Co. (code: 301459) closed at 41.84, down 1.99% [2] - Sanwei Co. (code: 603033) closed at 11.23, down 1.84% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The rubber sector saw a net outflow of 43.15 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 12.67 million yuan [2] - Speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 30.49 million yuan [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic butadiene market declined rapidly, reaching the mid - 2023 level. Ample supply, weak upstream and downstream products, and the external market dampened downstream buying sentiment. However, as prices hit annual lows, some downstream buyers replenished inventory, and the market found short - term support. The market stopped falling and consolidated in the latter part of the week under the influence of synthetic rubber futures [3]. - Although suppliers intended to stabilize or increase prices, market sentiment remained cautious due to fundamental expectations. The butadiene end improved slightly at the end of the cycle, reducing the bearish sentiment in the butadiene rubber market. Some arbitrageurs bought discounted butadiene rubber resources, and spot traders tried to increase prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions Overview - **Futures Market**: The domestic butadiene rubber futures contract BR2601.SHF had a closing price of 10,305 yuan/ton, up 0.68%; the settlement price was 10,170 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The trading volume was 128,144 lots, up 53.50%, and the open interest was 83,941 lots, up 191.08%. The warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 100% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of butadiene in various regions declined. For example, the price in Hangzhou dropped by 1.32% to 7,450 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of some manufacturers also decreased, such as Nanjing Yangzi's price dropping by 5.06% to 7,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Price Spreads**: There were various price spreads in the market, including inter - month spreads, cross - month spreads, cross - variety spreads, etc. For example, the BR - RU spread was - 4,615 yuan/ton, down 2.71% [3]. Industry Chain Analysis - **Butadiene Market**: Domestic production and imports were abundant, and the supply could not support the market. The prices of upstream and downstream products and the external market were weak, affecting downstream buying sentiment. However, some downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices, and the market found short - term support [3]. - **Butadiene Rubber Market**: Although there was a restart of a butadiene rubber plant in Sichuan Petrochemical, many plants in East and South China were under maintenance. The butadiene end improved at the end of the cycle, reducing the bearish sentiment in the butadiene rubber market. Some arbitrageurs and spot traders were active [3]. Strategy Operation - **Unilateral Strategy**: The BR contract is expected to move in a consolidation pattern [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: After the price spreads widen again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market has rebounded and risen. In the short - term, with the positive performance of the commodity market, rubber is likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. The trading strategy is to hold long single - side positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: RU主力 increased by 195 to 15045, NR主力 rose by 195 to 12130, BR主力 went up by 70 to 10305, Tocom RSS3 (yen/kg) decreased by 0.7 to 310.1, and Sicom TF (cents/kg) remained unchanged at 168.0 [3]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: RU2605 - RU2601 decreased by 20 to 75, RU2609 - RU2605 increased by 10 to 65, NR主力 - 次主力 increased by 15 to 15, and BR主力 - 次主力 decreased by 170 to - 80 [3]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: RU - NR was 2915, RU - BR increased by 125 to 4740, NR - BR increased by 33, RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) was 100, and NR - Sicom TF ($) increased by 28 to 23 [3]. Raw Material Prices - In Thailand, the price of smoked sheet rubber was 58.30 (decreased by 0.7), the price of glue remained at 56.30. In Hainan, the price of glue for concentrated latex and whole - milk latex remained unchanged at 14200 and 13100 respectively. In Yunnan, the price of glue for concentrated latex decreased by 200 to 13700, and the price of rubber blocks for whole - milk latex decreased by 200 to 13600 [3]. Factory Costs and Profits - The concentrated latex production profit in Thailand increased by 15 to 500. The factory cost in Hainan remained unchanged at - 429. The gross profit of Thai smoked sheet rubber increased by 21, and the gross profit of Thai 20 - grade rubber increased by 21 to - 571 [3]. Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The price of old whole - milk latex decreased by 100 to 14350, the price of Vietnamese 3L decreased by 50 to 14950, the price of Thai mixed rubber decreased by 20 to 14380, etc. [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price of cis - butadiene BR9000 decreased by 100 to 10200, the price of styrene - butadiene SBR1502 decreased by 200 to 10600, and the price of styrene - butadiene SBR1712 decreased by 100 to 9700 [3]. - **Overseas Spot**: The price of Thai mixed rubber CIF decreased by 5 to 1775, the price of Malaysian mixed rubber CIF decreased by 5 to 1765, etc. [3]. Spreads in Spot and Futures - **RU Spreads**: RU - Thai mixed rubber decreased by 5 to 470, RU - old whole - milk latex increased by 75 to 500, RU - Vietnamese 3L increased by 25 to - 100 [3]. - **NR Spreads**: NR - Thai standard delivery profit decreased by 26 to - 863, NR - Indian standard delivery profit increased by 46 to - 364 [3]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spread between domestic standard - 2 and Thai mixed rubber increased by 20 to - 680, the spread between old whole - milk latex and Vietnamese 3L decreased by 50 to - 600 [3]. Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index remained unchanged at 100.1593, the US dollar/Chinese yuan decreased by 0.004 to 7.0865, the US dollar/Japanese yen remained unchanged at 154.1220, and the US dollar/Thai baht remained unchanged at 32.4775 [3]. Supply, Inventory and Demand - **Supply**: The price of raw material glue in Thailand was 56.30 baht/kg. The prices of glue in Hainan and Yunnan for different rubber types had certain changes [3]. - **Inventory**: As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 44.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.54 million tons or 3.57%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.58% to 6.83 million tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 4.36% to 37.94 million tons [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points [3].