Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2) Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market has limited contradictions, with the asphalt futures showing a slight decline and the spot price generally stable, except for small drops in North China and Shandong. The asphalt market has shifted to a volatile trend after pricing in the expectation of tightened Venezuelan oil supply. The expectation of tightened Venezuelan oil supply to domestic asphalt refineries is gradually being realized, and there is still support at the cost - end. However, the key lies in the increase in cost and the change in asphalt yield after refineries adjust raw material oil types, and continuous attention is needed due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation [1]. - The trading strategy suggests being cautiously bullish on the single - side, buying the main BU contract on dips, and allowing early bottom - fishing long positions to take appropriate profit. For the inter - period strategy, it is recommended to buy the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread). There are no strategies for cross - varieties, spot - futures, and options [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 15, the closing price of the main BU2603 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 199,517 lots, a decrease of 3,810 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 159,746 lots, a decrease of 39,400 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3406 - 3500 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3030 - 3240 yuan/ton; South China: 3130 - 3250 yuan/ton; East China: 3180 - 3230 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Single - side: Cautiously bullish, buy the main BU contract on dips, and allow early bottom - fishing long positions to take appropriate profit [2]. - Inter - period: Buy the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread) [2]. - Cross - varieties: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2]. Charts - The report contains multiple charts showing various aspects of the asphalt market, including spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest, production, consumption, and inventory levels [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Bearish consolidation [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously chase long [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously chase long [2] - Urea: Bullish with oscillations [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Different products show various trends due to their unique fundamentals. For example, crude oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions; while some products like PX/PTA and urea have certain upward expectations under specific supply - demand and cost conditions [1][2][3]. 3. Summaries According to Related Categories 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight, WTI dropped 4.52%, Brent dropped 4.15%, and SC rose 0.60%. As of January 2, US crude inventories decreased by 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels to 242 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 5.6 million barrels to 129.3 million barrels [9][10][12]. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, but there is still uncertainty. In the off - season, there is an oversupply of oil, with global oil inventories accelerating accumulation, and US oil and refined product inventories both increasing, leading to significant downward pressure on oil prices [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing down prices, and oil prices are entering a low - price range. Pay attention to the production changes in non - OPEC+ regions. In the short - term, there may be a rebound, but in the medium - and long - term, prices are under pressure. Focus on the range of SC [430 - 445] [13]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 15, the PG main contract closed at 4244 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [16]. - **Main Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost of crude oil, and in the long - term, crude oil is under pressure. The commodity volume is stable, and downstream chemical demand has resilience, providing some support. As of January 16, the inventory in refineries and ports decreased [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the oversupply of upstream crude oil, the price center is expected to continue to decline. In the short - term, the cost of crude oil has increased uncertainty. Focus on the range of PG [4100 - 4200] [18]. 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: The L05 contract price increased, the basis was 0 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 35 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream and mid - stream are destocking. In the short - term, it will follow the cost and fluctuate weakly. The shutdown ratio has risen to 14%, and the planned device maintenance is increasing this week, with expected production decline. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has decreased to a low level in the same period. Considering the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent and the chemical sector is in a bullish atmosphere, the market is expected to repair profits [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of L [6800 - 6950] [22]. 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 contract price was stable, the basis was - 117 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 43 yuan/ton [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: The total commercial inventory is being destocked. In the short - term, it will follow the cost and fluctuate weakly. In January, the demand side is entering the off - season, the shutdown ratio is 19%, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of PP [6450 - 6650] [26]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract price decreased slightly, the basis was - 218 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 124 yuan/ton [27][28]. - **Main Logic**: Social inventory has reached a high level, and the cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to weakening export demand in the long - term. In the short - term, there is an expectation of rush - exporting. The domestic operating rate has increased to 80%, and both domestic and foreign demand are in the off - season. The cost support is strengthening, increasing the expectation of future maintenance [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of V [4700 - 4900] [29]. 3.6 PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract price rose, the basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was 64 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee was 388.0 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee was 402.0 yuan/ton [30]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply side has high - intensity maintenance overall, and some devices have recovered this week. The downstream demand is relatively good but is expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, with an expectation of inventory accumulation in January and February. Pay attention to the seasonal decline in polyester production [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on the range of TA05 [4960 - 5080] [32]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract price decreased, the basis was - 157 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 94 yuan/ton [33]. - **Main Logic**: The overall valuation is low. The domestic operating load has increased, and the overseas devices have changed little. The downstream demand is relatively good but is expected to weaken seasonally. The port inventory has continued to increase. It has no upward momentum in the short - term and will fluctuate following the cost [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop losses on short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG05 [3730 - 3820] [35]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract reduced positions and rose, the port basis weakened, and the 5 - 9 spread strengthened [38]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic methanol device operating load remains at a high level in the same period, and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads. The import volume in January is expected to be about 750,000 tons, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand side has slightly improved, but the overall supply - demand is slightly loose, and the downside space may be limited [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is a game between the weak reality and strong expectation. The geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the trading logic should return to the fundamentals. Focus on the range of MA05 [2210 - 2280] [40]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR05 contract price was stable, the basis was - 27 yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 23 yuan/ton. The weighted comprehensive profit was 57.41 yuan/ton [41][43]. - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall operating load has increased, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level. The demand side is weakening, and the winter off - season storage has limited positive effects. However, the domestic and foreign arbitrage window is still open, and there is an expectation of spring fertilizer use [42][43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The positive impact of winter storage is limited, but the export window is still open, and there is an expectation of spring fertilizer use. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, but the rebound height is restricted by the increasing supply pressure. Focus on the range of UR05 [1770 - 1810] [44]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 15, the NG main contract closed at 3.120 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 8.75% from the previous day [47]. - **Main Logic**: The supply side is relatively abundant, and the demand remains stable. The price is under pressure. The domestic LNG retail profit has increased. The US natural gas inventory has decreased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, the demand for heating provides support, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price is under pressure. Focus on the range of NG [2.725 - 3.370] [48]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The BU main contract closed at 3167 yuan/ton on January 15, down 0.03%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [51]. - **Main Logic**: The export of Venezuelan crude oil is still uncertain, and the raw material is tight. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased, and the oil price has fallen. The comprehensive profit is stable. The supply has increased, and the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased [52]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply side has increased uncertainty. Pay attention to risks. Focus on the range of BU [3150 - 3250] [53]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract price decreased, the basis was - 66 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 110 yuan/ton [55][56]. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of traders in Shahe is at the highest level in the same period, and the market fluctuates weakly. The supply - demand is weak, and the three - process profit has turned negative. The weak demand restricts the upward space [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of FG [1050 - 1100] [57]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract price decreased, the basis was - 43 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [59][60]. - **Main Logic**: The factory inventory has increased against the season, and the market has returned to weak oscillations. The demand support for heavy soda ash is insufficient. The long - term supply is loose, and the demand support is weak [61]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of SA [1150 - 1200] [61].

Core Insights - The crude oil processing volume in Zhejiang Province for the first nine months of 2025 reached 60.89 million tons, representing an 8.9% increase compared to the same period in 2024, which is 9.7 percentage points higher than the growth rate in 2024 and 5.2 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - In September 2025 alone, the crude oil processing volume in Zhejiang Province was 7.084 million tons, marking a 7.6% increase year-on-year, with a growth rate 9.4 percentage points higher than in September 2024 and 0.8 percentage points above the national average [2] Summary by Category Crude Oil Processing Volume - The cumulative crude oil processing volume in Zhejiang Province from January to September 2025 was 60.89 million tons, accounting for 11.1% of the national total of 550.815 million tons [1] - In September 2025, the processing volume was 7.084 million tons, which is 11.3% of the national total of 62.687 million tons for that month [2] Year-on-Year Growth - The year-on-year growth rate for the first nine months of 2025 was 8.9%, significantly higher than the previous year's growth rate [1] - The year-on-year growth for September 2025 was 7.6%, also reflecting a substantial increase compared to September 2024 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For financial derivatives, the stock index futures need short - term shock consolidation and are expected to rise in the medium - term; the bond market may maintain a shock situation. In the agricultural products sector, the overall supply and demand situation varies, and prices are affected by factors such as international market supply, domestic demand, and weather. The black metal market is affected by factors such as macro - policies, supply and demand, and cost support, with steel prices continuing to fluctuate. The non - ferrous metal market is affected by factors such as geopolitics, tariffs, and inventory, and price trends vary. The shipping sector is affected by factors such as geopolitics, supply and demand, and seasonality. The energy and chemical sector is greatly affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand relationships [21][25][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Thursday's stock index showed a sideways shock. The stock index futures were differentiated with the spot, and the basis of each variety rose again. The market is expected to have short - term shock consolidation and medium - term upward potential. The trading strategies include short - term shock and grid operation, IM\IC long 2606 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and double - buy option strategy [20][21][22]. Bond Futures - On Thursday, most bond futures closed higher. The central bank's structural interest rate cut was implemented, and the enterprise sector's credit expansion rebounded. The bond market may maintain a shock situation in the short - term. The trading strategies include temporary wait - and - see for unilateral trading and shorting the 30Y active bond basis trading [22][24][25]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The demand has improved stage by stage, and the disk has rebounded slightly. The international market is generally in a loose situation, and the domestic cost side still faces certain pressure. The trading strategy is mainly based on a bearish idea for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and selling the wide - straddle strategy for options [29][30][31]. Sugar - International sugar prices are falling, and domestic sugar prices are fluctuating. The international sugar price is expected to bottom - out and fluctuate in the short - term, and the domestic sugar price will fluctuate within a range. The trading strategies include considering low - buying and high - selling within the range for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and selling put options for options [33][35][36]. Oil and Fat Sector - The US biodiesel quota plan has an impact on the market, and the US soybean oil rose sharply overnight. The Malaysian palm oil is in the production - reduction period, and the domestic soybean oil is gradually destocking. The short - term trading strategy is to wait and see due to the shock operation and increased fluctuations [38]. Corn/Corn Starch - The US corn is weak in the short - term, and the domestic corn spot is stable in the short - term but has pressure in the later stage. The 03 corn is in a high - level shock. The trading strategies include a bullish idea for the 03 corn after stabilization and short - buying on dips for the 07 corn for unilateral trading, widening the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips for arbitrage, and wait - and - see for options [39][40][41]. Live Pigs - The supply pressure still exists, and the disk has a slight adjustment. The trading strategy is mainly based on a short - selling idea for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and selling the wide - straddle strategy for options [42][43]. Peanuts - The peanut spot is stable, and the disk is bottom - out and fluctuating. The trading strategies include buying on dips for the 05 peanut for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and selling the pk603 - C - 8200 option for options [44][45]. Eggs - The demand has improved, and the egg price has risen steadily. The trading strategy is to consider building long positions on dips for the 5 - month far - month contract for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [47][48]. Apples - The cold - storage inventory is low, and the apple price is firm. The trading strategies include partial profit - taking for the 5 - month contract long positions and short - selling on rallies for the 10 - month contract for unilateral trading, long 5 and short 10 for arbitrage, and wait - and - see for options [50][51][52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The sales progress is fast, and the cotton price fluctuates strongly. The trading strategies include considering building long positions on dips for Zheng cotton for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [55][56]. Black Metals Steel - Demand provides support, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. The market sentiment may cause the steel price to fluctuate under pressure. The trading strategies include short - selling the spread between hot - rolled coil and coking coal on rallies and holding the short - position of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar for arbitrage, and wait - and - see for options [59][60]. Coking Coal and Coke - There is insufficient upward momentum and a risk of decline. The trading strategies include being bearish for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and selling out - of - the - money call options for options [62][63][64]. Iron Ore - Market expectations are volatile, and the iron ore price should be treated bearishly at a high level. The trading strategy is to be bearish with a light position at a high level for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [65][66]. Ferroalloys - Cost support is strong, and prices fluctuate strongly. The trading strategies include a bullish short - term shock for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and selling out - of - the - money straddle options for options [67][68]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Gold and silver fluctuate at a high level, and short - term high volatility continues. The trading strategies include holding long positions cautiously based on the support near the 5 - day moving average for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and using the bull call spread strategy for options [70][71][72]. Platinum and Palladium - The tariff expectation has temporarily failed, and the disk has fallen from a high level. The trading strategies include waiting for the price to stabilize after the callback due to the failed tariff expectation and then going long for platinum for unilateral trading, and wait - and - see for palladium, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [73][74]. Copper - Short - term fluctuations intensify, but the long - term upward trend remains. The trading strategies include paying attention to profit protection and position control for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [77][78][79]. Alumina - It is still weak in the short - term, and be vigilant against policy risks in Guinea. The trading strategies include being bearish in the shock, preventing Guinea's policy risks, and protecting profits for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [80][81][83]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market sentiment has cooled down, and the aluminum price has corrected. The trading strategies include being vigilant against the callback risk caused by capital outflows in the short - term and being bullish in the medium - term for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [84][85][86]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market sentiment has cooled down, and the price has corrected with the sector. The trading strategies include being bearish in the short - term and bullish in the medium - term for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [87][88][89]. Zinc - Pay attention to the impact of the capital side. The trading strategy is to wait and see and pay attention to capital flow for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [90][91][93]. Lead - Pay attention to capital sentiment. The trading strategies include partial profit - taking for profitable long positions and partial holding for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and appropriate profit - taking for out - of - the - money call options for options [94][95][96]. Nickel - The nickel price adjusts with non - ferrous metals. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the overall atmosphere of the non - ferrous metal sector for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [97][98]. Stainless Steel - It follows the nickel price. The trading strategy is to follow the nickel price for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage [99][100][101]. Industrial Silicon - Sell short at the upper edge of the range. The trading strategy is to sell short at the upper edge of the range for unilateral trading [102]. Polysilicon - Wait and see in the short - term. The trading strategy is to be cautious in participating and pay attention to risk control for unilateral trading [104]. Lithium Carbonate - It is running at a high level, and operate cautiously. The trading strategies include partial profit - taking for long positions and paying attention to the support of the 5 - day line and the atmosphere of the non - ferrous metal market for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and using a protective strategy with futures long positions for options [106][108][110]. Tin - The tin price has fallen, and pay attention to capital flow. The trading strategies include partial long - position exit due to the digestion of long sentiment for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for options [111][112][113]. Shipping Sector Container Shipping - The MSK's India - US East MECL route's return plan to pass through the Suez Canal strengthens the resumption of navigation expectation. The trading strategies include waiting and seeing and paying attention to the long - term resumption of navigation risk for unilateral trading, and maintaining a long - position idea for the 6 - 10 calendar spread arbitrage [115][116]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - It gives back part of the geopolitical premium. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and expect wide - range fluctuations for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [117][118]. Asphalt - The cost fluctuation of crude oil expands, and the supply and demand run weakly. The trading strategies include high - level shock and wide - range geopolitical risk for unilateral trading, paying attention to the BU4 - 6 calendar spread arbitrage, wait - and - see for options [120][121][122]. Fuel Oil - Geopolitical risks fluctuate widely. The trading strategies include being vigilant against geopolitical risks, wide - range fluctuations, and waiting and seeing for unilateral trading, paying attention to the FU59 calendar spread arbitrage, wait - and - see for options [123][124][125]. Natural Gas - TTF/JKM rebounds, and HH's downward trend continues. The trading strategies include continuing to hold short positions in the third - quarter TTF and JKM contracts and adding more positions for the aggressive for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and long - term rolling selling of out - of - the - money call options of TTF or JKM for options [126][127][128]. LPG - It gives back the geopolitical gains. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and expect wide - range fluctuations for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [129][130]. PX&PTA - Cost support weakens. The trading strategy is wide - range fluctuations for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [131][132][133]. BZ&EB - Pure benzene has a reduction expectation, and the short - stop of the styrene device boosts the price increase. The trading strategies include short - term shock and a bullish trend for unilateral trading, shorting pure benzene and going long on styrene for arbitrage, wait - and - see for options [133][134][135]. Ethylene Glycol - Seasonal inventory accumulation is obvious. The trading strategies include being bearish in the shock due to weak supply - demand structure and large inventory pressure for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and selling call options for options [137][138][139]. Short - Fiber - Supply is sufficient, and terminal demand weakens. The trading strategy is wide - range fluctuations for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [140]. Bottle Chips - Wide - range fluctuations. The trading strategy is wide - range fluctuations for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [142][143]. Propylene - Supply pressure eases. The trading strategy is a bullish shock for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [144][146]. Plastic PP - The PPI of plastic products declines. The trading strategies include waiting and seeing for the L 2605 contract and paying attention to the support at the recent low of 6500 points for the PP 2605 contract for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and reducing the position and waiting and seeing for the PP2605 put 6100 contract for options [147][148]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price weakens. The trading strategies include a bearish trend for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [150][151][152]. PVC - Mainly fluctuates. The trading strategy is to wait and see for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [155][156]. Soda Ash - The futures price falls. The trading strategies include short - selling on rallies in the next week for unilateral trading, shorting glass and going long on soda ash for arbitrage, and selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies for options [157][158][159]. Glass - The futures price falls. The trading strategies include short - selling on rallies before the Spring Festival for unilateral trading, shorting glass and going long on soda ash for arbitrage, and selling call options for options [160][161][162]. Methanol - It rises strongly. The trading strategies include waiting and seeing and paying attention to the Middle - East situation for unilateral trading, paying attention to the 59 calendar spread arbitrage, and selling put options on dips for options [163]. Urea - It cools down slightly. The trading strategy is to wait and see for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [165][166]. Pulp - The pulp price falls from a high level. The trading strategy is to continue to hold short positions for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and options [167][169][170]. Logs - The spot is stable and strong. The trading strategies include building a small number of long positions for unilateral trading, paying attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse calendar spread arbitrage, wait - and - see for options [172][173][174]. Offset Printing Paper - The cultural paper rebounds weakly. The trading strategies include waiting and seeing for unilateral trading, wait - and - see for arbitrage, and selling the OP2602 - C - 4200 option for options [176][177]. Natural Rubber - The output growth rate of ANRPC slows down. The trading strategies include short - selling a small amount of the RU 05 contract and setting a stop - loss at the recent high of 16275 points, waiting and seeing for the NR 03 contract for unilateral trading, reducing the position and waiting and seeing for the RU2605 - NR2605 spread for arbitrage, wait - and - see for options [178][180][181]. Butadiene Rubber - The tire production increases significantly month - on - month. The trading strategies include waiting and seeing and paying attention to the pressure at the recent high of 12425 points for the BR 03 contract for unilateral trading, holding the BR2603 - NR2603 spread with a stop - loss at the recent low of - 790 points for arbitrage, wait - and - see for options [182][183][184].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province is implementing a "financial chain master" strategy to support 19 key industrial chains by designating specific banks to provide targeted financial services, thereby facilitating capital flow to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) within these chains [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Chain Master Strategy - Shandong has selected 14 banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Hengfeng Bank, and Qilu Bank, to serve as financial chain masters for its 19 key industrial chains [2]. - Qilu Bank has been designated as the financial chain master for the petrochemical industry, leveraging the credit of major companies like Jingbo Holdings Group to support their suppliers [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Products and Services - Qilu Bank introduced a new financial product called "Quanshin Chain," allowing suppliers to receive immediate cash against electronic payment certificates issued by core enterprises like Jingbo Holdings [2][3]. - The product provides Jingbo Holdings with a supply chain financing credit of 150 million yuan, which helps stabilize the supply chain by enabling quick payments to suppliers [3]. Group 3: Impact on SMEs - The "Quanshin Chain" service has already covered nearly 100 suppliers of Jingbo Holdings, with average loans around 500,000 yuan, and the lowest being 20,000 yuan, offering lower interest rates compared to traditional corporate loans [3]. - This initiative has created a "1+N" model in Shandong, where one financial chain master collaborates with multiple financial institutions to provide tailored financial services to enterprises [3][4]. Group 4: Future Plans - The Shandong Provincial Financial Office aims to promote comprehensive service plans tailored to the 19 key industrial chains, focusing on various financial instruments such as loans, equity, guarantees, and insurance [4].

行业 沥青日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 16 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and after the holiday, it weakened slightly. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from its low but remained weak year-on-year. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. [3] - The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to Contango at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residue stocks increased significantly, high-sulfur floating storage decreased significantly, ARA's residue stocks increased slightly, Fujairah's residue stocks decreased, high-sulfur floating storage decreased, and EIA's residue stocks increased slightly. [4] - The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, having a short-term positive and long-term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics disruptions. The arrival premium of Merey crude at the end of December remained around -12. [4] - The high-sulfur spot market remained loose. Attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium and discount of heavy raw materials recently. The low-sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from 2026/01/09 - 2026/01/15 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -9.08 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | -13.40 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | 0.78 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -18.15 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | 4.75 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 0.00 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | -4.32 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from 2026/01/09 - 2026/01/15 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 0.78 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | -2.68 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | -3.01 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | -0.60 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | 0.27 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | 1.43 | [1][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Change from 2026/01/09 - 2026/01/15 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 0.78 | | FOB VLSFO | -2.72 | | 380 Basis | 0.05 | | High-Sulfur Domestic-International Spread | 0.9 | | Low-Sulfur Domestic-International Spread | -1.1 | [2] Domestic FU Futures Data | Product | Change from 2026/01/09 - 2026/01/15 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -3 | | FU 05 | -12 | | FU 09 | -13 | | FU 01 - 05 | 9 | | FU 05 - 09 | 1 | | FU 09 - 01 | -10 | [2] Domestic LU Futures Data | Product | Change from 2026/01/09 - 2026/01/15 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 7 | | LU 05 | -13 | | LU 09 | -22 | | LU 01 - 05 | 20 | | LU 05 - 09 | 9 | | LU 09 - 01 | -29 | [3]

Group 1: Central Enterprises' Responsibilities and Innovations - Central enterprises are urged to recognize their responsibilities and contribute to high-quality economic and social development, improve people's livelihoods, and support the modernization of China [1] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has selected the top ten national key projects and super-engineering initiatives for central enterprises in 2025 [1] Group 2: China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) - CNPC's ethylene project in Dushanzi, Tarim, with a capacity of 1.2 million tons/year, is set to be completed in 2026, featuring over 98% localization of equipment and a green production model [2] - CNPC aims to enhance energy security by accelerating domestic oil and gas exploration and development, and expanding international energy cooperation [2] Group 3: National Petroleum and Natural Gas Pipeline Group - The Sichuan section of the "West-to-East Gas Transmission" project has been completed, increasing gas transmission capacity by approximately 14 billion cubic meters annually [4] - The company plans to implement innovative actions to support the construction of a new energy infrastructure focused on flexible energy conversion and efficient distribution [5] Group 4: China Electronics Corporation - The company aims to develop a complete domestic EDA tool system and high-performance chips by 2026, enhancing the "China Chip" capability [6] - China Electronics will focus on integrating the entire semiconductor industry chain, including design, manufacturing, and supply chain [7] Group 5: China Coal Energy Group - The liquid sunshine demonstration project in Inner Mongolia is expected to be operational in 2026, utilizing renewable energy to produce green hydrogen and methanol [8] - The company emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and aims to optimize its industrial layout towards clean and efficient coal utilization [9] Group 6: China National Building Material Group - The world's first zero-carbon intelligent manufacturing base for fiberglass is expected to be operational in 2026, using 100% green electricity [10] - The company plans to enhance its research and development efforts to support the modernization of the materials industry [11] Group 7: China Railway Rolling Stock Corporation (CRRC) - The CR450 high-speed train, capable of reaching speeds of 400 km/h, will undergo comprehensive testing in 2026, marking a significant advancement in China's high-speed rail technology [12] - CRRC aims to strengthen its innovation capabilities and maintain its leadership in the rail transportation equipment sector [12]

Group 1 - In the first nine months of 2025, the ethylene production in Liaoning Province reached 278.7 thousand tons, representing a decrease of 5.1% compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 8.2 percentage points lower than 2024 and 12.1 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - The ethylene production in Liaoning accounted for 10.2% of the national total production of 2739.93 thousand tons during the same period [1] Group 2 - In September 2025, Liaoning's ethylene production was 26.1 thousand tons, which is a decline of 13.4% compared to September 2024, with a growth rate 27.6 percentage points lower than 2024 and 18.7 percentage points lower than the national average [2] - Liaoning's September production represented 8.7% of the national ethylene production of 299.22 thousand tons for that month [2]

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is the introduction of a "carbon footprint" labeling system in Shandong Province, allowing consumers to easily identify the carbon emissions associated with products throughout their lifecycle [1][2] - The carbon footprint is defined as the total greenhouse gas emissions, expressed in carbon dioxide equivalents, resulting from specific entities or products over a certain period [1] - The implementation of the "Action Plan" aims to promote low-carbon lifestyles, provide clear environmental purchasing references for consumers, and enhance the international competitiveness of Shandong products in the green market [2][3] Group 2 - The "Action Plan" outlines a phased approach to establish a carbon footprint management system, with initial pilot projects by 2027 and a more comprehensive policy framework by 2030 [2] - Different cities in Shandong will adopt tailored strategies for carbon footprint management, such as Qingdao focusing on green finance and international trade, while Yantai will concentrate on key export industries [3] - The plan encourages other cities to explore innovative approaches based on their unique industrial structures and development conditions [3]